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Government bonds

50DMA and TBILLS indicating when bear market hitsHere's a closer look at a highly reliable cyclical bear market indicator. Over the past two decades, it has consistently proven itself as a trusted signal, often aligning with yield curve inversions. In contrast to employing trendlines and breakouts for precision, this chart relies on moving averages. These moving averages function in a similar manner to channels, as they calculate the mean, much like a channel does in various aspects. When there's a breakdown from this mean, it typically signifies a significant loss of support. From a fundamental perspective, this shift suggests that the market is heading towards a risk-off sentiment, leading investors towards products such as TLT due to their appealing pricing in comparison to stock valuations. The divergence we're witnessing appears unlike any we've encountered before. To return to the mean, it would require either a prolonged consolidation at higher levels for many months or a sudden and sharp downturn. I have my own theories on how such a downturn might occur, possibly triggered by an event akin to a cyber attack on financial systems, similar to the disruption caused by the COVID pandemic. However, that's a discussion for another day. In this scenario, our focus should be on reacting to developments rather than attempting to predict them. Currently, the most crucial level to monitor is a potential retest of the 4100 range on the SPX, coupled with how the yield curve reacts when it approaches its initial resistance. If a breakout occurs in these areas, it could signify an increasingly uncertain market environment. For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the chart below, which provides insights into the points I've discussed.
TVC:US03MY
by EdwinPus
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle. And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by CityIndex
US10Y Rejection not confirmed yet. Bullish unless this breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having a 2-week rejection since the August 22 High that was priced marginally above the 4.336 Resistance. However both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well as the Higher Lows trend-line that moves just below it, remain intact, maintaining the long-term uptrend. Today is the ideal spot for a new buy entry, targeting 4.365 (August 22 High). We are only willing to turn short after the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line and closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50. In that case, we will sell and target 3.810 (Fibonacci 0.5 level). Notice also the 1D RSI which just hit its own Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since March 15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
US 10Y TREASURY: targeting 4.0%?The pivotal point for markets during the previous week was the release of the unemployment rate in the US for August. The rate was increased above market expectations to the level of 3.8%. This was sort of a surprise for markets, where the majority of participants revised their estimations, anticipating that Fed will not hike rates at September`s meeting. The odds for such a decision are currently very high, reaching 93%. Treasury yields also reacted with modest relaxation. The 10Y Treasury rates made a move from 4.25% down to 4.063% as of the end of the week. Current charts are pointing to a higher probability that 4.0% might be the next target for 10Y yields. This level might be tested in the week ahead. A move toward the opposite side might lead to 4.20% which could be tested for one more time
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
The Bear Steepener Analysis US10Y/US01YLooking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook: Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already shifted towards a risk-off sentiment. Similar pattern consolidations/breakouts occurred during most recent systemic risk offs, below is the one we've had during Covid: Dot Com s3.tradingview.com 2008 With the only exception, a major fakeout being the 1995-1998 period. Now, when we consider the VVIX/VIX ratio, it offers a noteworthy perspective on the potential alignment of this bear steepener breakout with the possibility of breaching the bottom support. Barring any unforeseen developments that could disrupt this pattern, it appears that we are receiving indications or early warnings of an impending risk-off event. Additionally, when we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average (MA), it confirms our decision to shift towards the long side just over a week ago. Moreover, there's a chance that this move could trigger a final squeeze. How long might this squeeze persist? My assessment suggests that it still has some room to run, and I would only recommend exercising caution once we start approaching the 60's in this particular indicator.
TVC:US10Y
by EdwinPus
US 10 YEAR TREASURY NOTES ANALYSISThere is a strong relationship between bonds and equities. Recently, specific stocks such as APPLE and MICROSOFT have been retracing from their all time highs. There is a continual flow of money between the equities and the bonds ( like two poles on the opposite of each other ). If the bearish momentum in the equities continues in the coming weeks/months, the money will flow into the bonds, and the bond yields will fall as a result !
TVC:US10YShort
by privatedvlper
4
📈📊 #ChartPattern Alert! 📈📊 📈 Rising Wedge 📈📈📊 #ChartPattern Alert! 📈📊 📈 Rising Wedge 📈 📈 What is a Rising Wedge? The Rising Wedge is a bearish chart pattern characterized by two converging trendlines, with the lower trendline sloping upward more than the upper trendline. It typically signals a potential bearish reversal, with the price likely to break downward after the wedge pattern. 📈 How to Identify: Draw a trendline connecting at least two lower highs (upper trendline). Draw another trendline connecting at least two lower lows (lower trendline). 📈 What it Signals: The Rising Wedge suggests a potential bearish reversal, with sellers prevailing at lower highs within the wedge. It often forms during uptrends and can precede a significant price move to the downside. 📈 Trade Strategy: Consider short-selling or setting stop-loss levels if the price breaks below the lower trendline of the Rising Wedge. Set profit targets based on the pattern's height subtracted from the breakdown point. Implement a stop-loss to manage risk in case of a false breakdown. Remember to use other technical indicators and conduct thorough research to support your analysis before making any trading decisions. Happy charting and trading! 📉💹
TVC:US10Y
by RaffDN
2
US10Y - Toppy CluesIn tandem with dollar, 10 year yields are giving toppy clues. Last weeks candle printed a shakeout through the 2022 top. And this could be the deeper perspective of the textbook "double top." And now this week's candle is printing bearish so far. Its actually picking up pace as I write and I have just entered a TLT Bonds long. So I did say this could be climbing into the next wave up but the mid trend shakeout I have highlighted (notice on the 2 week chart there is the blended shakeout with large upper wick) does not support this and it look like it may be ready to collapse. We'll see but if it does then it could be the explosive moment we've been waiting for in asset markets 🤨.
TVC:US10YShort
by dRends35
EURUSD Technical AnalysisUS: The Fed hiked by 25 bps as expected and kept everything unchanged. Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency and kept all the options on the table. The US economic data keeps on surprising to the upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures coming in at 0.16%. The US PMIs missed expectations across the board last week, while the US Jobless Claims remained solid. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was mostly in line with what he said previously but he stressed on the need to be careful going forward and that continued strength in the labour market may require further rate hikes. At the moment, the market doesn’t expect another hike from the Fed, but the next NFP and CPI data will be crucial to confirm or change this view.
TVC:US10YLong
by AnhNgocBui
3 Month Bill Drops To 5.3%In this video, it was difficult to explain everything -- The first thing we look at is the 3-month bill the price of this bond -- Is set to drop as of this writing Later the price will be baked into the market -- In about 4 days from now This is very important to understand -- Because the financial market is backed by Bonds -- Once you understand bonds then you will learn How you can well profit from this type of market psychology -- Watch this video to learn more -- Disclaimer: Do not buy or sell what i tell you to buy or sell do your own research before you trade This is not financial advice -- To learn more about this topic rocket boost this article
TVC:US05YEducation
by lubosi
US 10Y TREASURY: relaxation ahead?During the speech at the Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming on Friday, Fed Chair Powell only confirmed what markets already saw in FOMC meeting minutes – which is that the interest rates might go higher from current levels if the inflation remains persistent. Prior to his speech, the 10Y Treasury yields reached the highest weekly level at 4.358% and remained elevated during the rest of the week. However, some relaxation came as of the weekend, so yields finished the week at level of 4.239%. But the question remains whether this was only a short correction to the downside and if the markets finished with testing of $4.3% level? Current charts are pointing to the possibility for the 4.3% level to be tested for one more time. This might be supported by the fundamentals which will be released during the week ahead – the PCE Price Index for July and Non-Farm Payrolls for August. Still, there is no indication that yields might go higher from this level. At the same time a short reversal might bring yields back to 4.2% eventually 4.1% levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX