We did not just consolidate this long for a small move.I am not certain how quick or slow we move up here, but I would imagine 8% terminal rate, give or take. This is going to severely harm the economy, and help the strength of the dollar, and also secure it as reserve currency.Longby MikeMMUpdated 2
us 10yr looks like it breaking out from the cup and handle patteTVC:US10Y looks like it breaking out from the cup and handle pattern and could be on its way back to 4.1% by Jay11045
The 2-yr finally broke through resistance todayThe TVC:US02Y finally broke through key resistance today, and now has a chance I think to go back to 5.1%. by Jay1104115
GB10Y vs GBP/USD #gilts #gbp #recessionThe 10 Year gilt vs the GBP. Fractal taken from 2007 just before the 2008 recession. interest rates are expecting to keep raising! why this chart indicates they are coming to the end of the tightening cycle! as mentioned before I'm expecting more strength in the pound due to weakness in the dollar. Expecting the BOE to pause rate hikes next meeting after the aggressive 50 bpts increase. GBP strength would relieve pressure from BOE and we should see inflation drop. possible we see more banking contagion and possible further hike's if inflation doesn't drop fast enough. but how long can they tighten for? before revenue loss exceeds Debt. credit will be way more expensive, mortgage demand drops. - this would cause a pull back in the housing market, this is when I would expect the fed to crash rates, to support crashing market's and the BOE to follow suite. going off this chart 2007 fractal - by April 2024 we should see GBY10 back down too 2%. which mean's the fed must of cut real rates by then in order to see BOE follow their policy. bad for pension's as real inflation will be much higher than 2%. but would create much more liquidity for market's and cheaper debt for growth. more revenue to the service the mountain of debt, in order to strengthen GDP. by dibz19962
Significant divergence of the daily RSI on the UK 10Y yieldPrice action depicts a loss of upside momentum and implies that the market is likely to ease back short term Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site. 01:15by The_STA1
Attention is on the 200-day ma on the EU 10Y yield chartDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site. 01:31by The_STA5
US 10Y yield looks to be failing at its downtrendDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site. 00:51by The_STA4
US 10Y TREASURY: pending 3.6% levelFed Chair Powell was speaking in front of the US Senate during the previous week, and confirmed what was previously said, that the Fed would most probably hit the rates for two more times till the end of this year. Market expectations are that the rates would be increased by additional 50 bps, which means two times 25 bps hikes. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moving around 3.8% at the beginning of the week, but ended the week around 3.68%. Still, Friday's trading close was at a level of 3.73%. The market continues to perceive an inverted yield curve, meaning that the rates would certainly have to go down. Charts are also perceiving some further relaxation in 10Y yields. Charts continue to point to the level of 3.6% as the next target of 10Y yields. This level might be tested in the coming week or two. On the opposite side, at this moment there is no indication that the yields might go higher from 3.8% and there is a low probability that this level might be tested for one more time in the coming week. by XBTFX1117
10y and 2y yield curves inverted--market crash when?The blue line is the inverted yield curve 10y-2y. Two other times where it got to low levels preceded the 2001 and 2008 crashes. But the orange circles mark where the crashes actually began and the markets fell, several months later after the inverted yields bottomed. The bottoms last five to eight months each before the inverted yields started to resolve and move up again. But it was 6-8 months later when the crashes began. If this holds true for today, our bottoming process is just getting started so we could be six months from the inverted yield curve moving up. Then it could take six more months before a crash begins. by Mokerkane9
German government bonds forming a triangle in my opinion it has chance for another wave up make sure the triangle confirms first Longby Analyticssage4
German Bond Yields DE10Y, DE02Y, DE01YThe German 10Y notes began to move higher slowly since early 2021, and rapidly in 2022 like we all know of. The ECB deposit facility as of 21.06.23 is 3.5% and main refinancing operations is 4%. Like most of us know, the bond market is a major leading indicator of the future rates, and the DE02Y and DE10Y indicate lower rates ahead in the coming months, hinting that we're at the top of interest rates hiking cycle by the ECB. Lets watch how things fold out ;)by Sujay_fi111
GB10Y - UK pensions at risk? update. #BOE #recession"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs. The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15 years! The move is set to deepen the mortgage crisis as borrowing costs rose for the 13th time in a row in an effort to curb inflation." *Fractal taken from 2007 high for the GB10Y - Gilt/Bond, reaching similar level's before reversing back down. I would expect the same to happen going forward. inflation is way above current interest rates, with the BOE stuck between banking crisis or a recession. I believe we'll see both! - Banking crisis, potential bail out's - expanding the currency supply further which will create more inflation! Pension's will continue too loose value, as bank of England will not be able to raise rates high enough to match inflation. "It comes as the rate of inflation remains unexpectedly stubborn – frozen at 8.7 per cent in May. Analysts had expected the Consumer Prices Index, which peaked at 11.1 per cent in October last year, to fall back to 8.4 per cent." What does this mean for the value of the pound? I'm actually expecting more strength in the GBP - purely from the weakness of the dollar. I would expect the fed to continue to pause now that inflation is finally dropping. FedNow expected to launch on the 1st of July, this will enable faster payment's and a surplus of dollars entering the markets if needed. again weaken's the purchasing power of the DXY - by adding more supply to the currency. Shortby dibz19960
Bonds down on the short term? Dear Ziilllaatraders, We should expect a short term sell. Greetings, ZiilllaatradesShortby ZILATRADES2
US Bond Inverted CurveThis chart represents that US bond curves is really inverted at the moment. Longby Baldecchi1
Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy. -US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception. -US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability. Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy. If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.Shortby Wiiso224
The downward channel in gold remains intact.The market's current reluctance to accept a 3.65% rate and the potential for further dollar support can act as resistance for gold, confirming the bearish scenario. A break of the 1954 dollar pivot could serve as a suitable confirmation for the continuation of the downward trend.Shortby Mohammad_MirdehghanUpdated 13
US10Y // REVERSE SHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER FORMATIONAlthough there is an inverted shoulder head shoulder formation on the chart, the targets are drawn according to Fibonacci.Longby aet615
US 10Y TREASURY: supporting 3.6%The Federal Reserve decided to halt its rate increase in June, acting exactly as the market was anticipating. However, this is not the long-awaiting Fed`s pivoting point. As per Fed Chair Powell, there would most certainly be two more rate hikes until the end of this year. This would eventually mean that the benchmark rate might go as high as 5.6% by the end of this year. So, the market was left as of the end of the previous week to digest Fed's comments and decisions during the weekend. On a positive side is that the inflation in the US is slowing down, reaching 4% in May on a yearly basis. As of the end of the previous week, the 10Y Treasuries reverted by 7 points on Friday, ending the week at level of 3.7%, after reaching 3.8% during the week. Current charts are pointing to a potential for further weakening of the 10Y yields, in which sense, the level of 3.6% might be tested for one more time in the week ahead. Still, risks to the upside in the coming period should not be overlooked.by XBTFX16
US 2 YEAR TREASURY BILLS ANALYSISThe yields on the short term 2 Year Treasury Bills have been on the rise since the FOMC started hiking the Dollar interest rates in March 2022. Earlier this week, the FOMC maintained the interest rates at 5.25% for the first time. This marks the beginning of the end of the current economic cycle. The yields are now at previous resistance from the 2007/2008 highs. If the FOMC Pivots at 5.25%, the short term Treasury yields will fall. Shortby privatedvlper3
US 1 YEAR NOTE ANALYSISThe yields on the short term Treasury Bills have been on the rise since the FOMC started hiking the Dollar interest rates in March 2022. Earlier this week, the FOMC maintained the interest rates at 5.25% for the first time. This marks the beginning of the end of the current economic cycle. The yields are now at previous resistance from the 2007/2008 highs. If the FOMC Pivots at 5.25%, the short term Treasury yields will fall. Shortby privatedvlper2
Yields are Yelling: Recession is comingIt looks like we are turning over. Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again. Why would they fall? Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession. I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY. With that trade, I am also long USD, since my native currency is EUR. If we have a weekly close above 3,5% on the US10Y, I will exit my positions. It might also be lucrative to go short stocks now, but I wont do that too much. This might be a great trade, but I am viewing it as a set up for an even better one. We might get a great opportunity to buy stocks soon. Shortby CyranusUpdated 225
Yield curve un-inversion = recession People focus on the yield curve when it inverts but the recession occurs when it un-inverts. Fractal gives us idea of possible momentum.Longby Yogigolf2
Bond Yields are mixed, longer term look better atm🚨🚨🚨#yields🚨🚨🚨 3M + 6M have been weak lately, we called them topping some time ago. Will they turn soon? 1Y trading at recent highs and seems like it is trying to go higher. 2Yr looks like it wants to the recent test highs. 10Yr TVC:TNX peaked LONG ago! Breaks white line, downtrend, likely trades higher. Inverted yield curve thing of past? #bonds #tech NASDAQ:NDX TVC:DXYby ROYAL_OAK_INC1