Just Take AttentionWhen US 2Y passes over 10Y, that might sign something is wrong. Not calling recession however it says something might be wrong. Take attention while FED continues to US dollar burning and interest rate hiking.
Government bonds
Inflation Wears Out Its Welcome in JapanHas anybody ever told you to be careful what you wish for because you might get it? Well, the Bank of Japan appears to be in one of those situations today.
Japan spent three decades oscillating into and out of deflation. As such, when inflation started to rise in 2022, the BOJ was initially thrilled. Finally deflation was coming to an end, and inflation was heading up to a target of 2.5%. The problem is that inflation didn’t stop heading higher at 2.5%. It’s now up to 4.2% excluding fresh food and energy. In a nation with a large elderly population where many people are on fixed incomes, having inflation too high is just as bad has having it too low.
But why should the rest of the world care what happens to Japan’s inflation rate? For starters, Japan has the world’s fourth largest economy, and what happens to the yen and to Japanese bond yields is of worldwide consequence.
Beginning in 2012, the BoJ launched a mega quantitative easing program – four times bigger than what the Federal Reserve did relative to the respective size of their economy. This QE program sent the yen plunging as the BoJ also capped 10-year Japanese government bond yields. But recently, they have softened the cap, sending not only Japanese bond yields higher but raising the cost of long-term borrowings all around the world, including in the United States and Europe.
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By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
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US20YHi, everybody should consider this huge upward move in longterm bond yield ....
but in my opinion now it is reaching resistance and if it breaks this floor it can attach upper band of parallel channel....
additionally to all of them look at TLT longterm bond ETF always you need to track this for interest rate expectations insight.....
Good luck
Reversal Bars Part 4-1: Springs and UpthrustSpring and Upthrust:
In the first three parts of this series (linked) we covered the basics of reversal bar patterns including hooks, pipes, key reversals, and climaxes. In this piece we focus on springs and upthrusts. Historically these patterns were associated with trading ranges, but I find the concepts useful anytime a market tests significant support or resistance. This is particularly true in the modern environment in which price indecision resolves itself more quickly and trading ranges are less frequent. A spring or upthrust bar often signals a significant reversal and makes it clear that a change in the supply demand imbalance has developed.
The patterns covered in the first three parts mostly occur near the end of uptrends and downtrends. In this part we cover patterns that often mark the end of lateral trading ranges or tests of already defined lateral support and resistance zones. We will focus mostly on tests of defined support and resistance, spend a bit of time on trading ranges and take a quick look at the technical position of the 10-year Treasury in its trend to illustrate some of the concepts.
Definitions:
Spring: Price thrusts sharply below a trading range/prior low support level (often in reaction to bearish news) before quickly reversing and closing back above the violated support. The quick reversal traps bears who entered fresh shorts in the belief that the prior downtrend was resuming. Volume on the spring is typically quite high (the higher the better) and the price spread should be reasonably wide. To qualify as a spring, the reversal must occur quickly. Slower violations that fail can be thought of as washouts or bear traps.
Upthrust: Price thrusts sharply above the trading range/prior resistance level (often in reaction to bullish news) before quickly reversing and closing below the violated resistance. The quick reversal traps bulls who entered fresh longs in the belief that the prior uptrend was resuming. The volume on the upthrust is typically quite high (the higher the better) and the price spread should be reasonably wide. To qualify as an upthrust, the reversal must occur quickly. Slower violations that fail can be thought of as washouts or bull traps.
For simplicity we will focus on springs rather than upthrusts, but functionally there is little difference, other than the fact that springs, which occur at bottoms, are often more violent than upthrusts, which occur at tops. These behaviors often develop as the market tests a strong support or resistance. As in prior reversal bar examples, the structure often marks a meaningful change in the supply demand balance.
Spring patterns typically develop in reaction to news or fresh bearish information that pushes the market sharply below support. But after the initial reaction below the range/pivot lows, fresh selling fails to materialize. The lack of new supply signals that the immediately available supply is exhausted. The quick rally back inside the range traps new shorts and generates significant covering. Typically, the time spent below support is very brief.
Springs reveal the nature of the supply waiting below the trading range or pivot. If a market springs a range, finds no new supply and rallies back inside the range or above the pivot, it can be assumed that the range has cleared out the supply leaving the market is now free to rally. Generally speaking, springs should reverse at a reasonable level and do so quickly as new sellers fail to emerge.
The structure is often tested. If a test occurs, it should be on lower volume and will generally be at a shallower angle than the initial decline. In my view, the spring low should not be violated by any significant degree or the structure is invalidated. Initial stops placed just beyond the extreme of the reversal bar should be secure but they are often too far away from the entry to represent a reasonable risk reward and typically are moved aggressively higher.
The depth of the thrust below the support, the volume it occurs on, the chart perspective it occurs in and the aggressiveness of the rebound are all factors when assessing the importance of the spring.
In part 2, we will cover trading springs and upthrusts and spend some time illustrating the concepts with the current 10 year Treasury chart.
And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum.
Good Trading:
Stewart Taylor, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
Taylor Financial Communications
US 10Y TREASURY: 4.3% overreacted or not? Previous week was one of the rare ones on the market, where some news hit the market totally unexpectedly. Such news was revealed from FOMC meeting minutes, where it has been noted high concern of several FOMC members that inflation might be persistent due to tight job market, which could imply more rate hikes from currently estimated. Fed pivoting seems far away now than ever in the last less than two years. Market reaction was pretty negative, while US Treasury yields surged to the higher levels. 10Y benchmark rates reached level of 4.3%, still, ending the week at level of 4.25%.
The week ahead should bring some market consolidation. After testing 4.3% level, yields should revert a bit to the downside. In this sense 4.10% might be an easy target, while it is still under question whether yields might return to the previous 4.0%. Still, it should be taken into account that the Jackson Hole Symposium will be held in the week ahead, as well as Fed Chair Powell's speech, which might bring some volatility back to the markets.
End of the 40 year Bond Bull Market?Everyone and their dog is looking for the Fed Pivot and rate cuts. I think if they do this and return to QE - they will lose the bond market. Then it won't matter for anyone on anything. This is the massive tail that I think nobody is looking for, but check the WEEKLY chart of the 10yr note.
Head & Shoulders (or their inverse) are typically formed at the end of a major trend. What I don't understand is why people think we are just doomed into a forever bond bull market...because the interest of our debt?
Global currencies are blowing up, I'm not that worried about some default on TSY - but that is all narrative and I make my living on trading charts - not farts (opinions/narratives).
FWIW - We have a giant inverse head and shoulders, and a breakout/backtest of a 40 year long trendline in the bond market on WEEKLY CHARTS. Everyone and their dog is waiting for a Powell pivot and a bond bull market to resume as nobody around has really ever known anything different. WEEKLY CHARTS are super powerful.
The monthly is even more bullish for rates/bearish for bonds....just follow the charts not the farts!
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook; destination Jackson Hole The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could test GBP longs this week, although pullbacks should be shallow.
US equity and index options expiry may have played a part in the equity drawdown, with dealer’s net short gamma and delta hedging through shorting S&P500 futures and single stock names. Let’s see how options dealers/market makers deal with this inventory of short positioning/hedges this week, as it may be unwanted - suggesting risk that they buy-back short S&P500 futures hedges (to close), which could cause an early relief rally in equity.
Positioning will play a huge part this week and it wouldn’t take much to see US real rates a touch lower, with the USD following in its wake.
As the new trading week cranks up, news flow on China will drive and should the HK50 and CNH find further selling interest, then I’d be aligned, with a bias to look at short GER40 trades. The China property sector remains the elephant in the room, with the market finding little tangible fiscal support to reprice risk higher – the price action in the HK50 reflects that, with rallies quickly sold into. It’s time for Chinese authorities to step it up.
We get PMI data out throughout the week, but as the week rolls on the attention should turn to Jackson Hole, where Jay Powell takes centre stage. While this forum has been the setting for some bold changes to monetary policy in years gone by, it doesn’t feel like this time around we’ll be treated to such action. The USD remains front and centre this week – biased long, I acknowledge positioning is rich and could easily be vulnerable to profit taking into Powell’s speech.
The marquee data to navigate:
• China loan prime rate decision (21 Aug 11:15 AEST) – after the PBoC surprised the market and eased the Medium-Lending Facility last week, we should see the PBoC ease the 1- and 5-year Prime lending rate by 15bp respectively. Unless we see the Prime Rate left unchanged, Chinese equity markets will likely overlook any policy easing here and funds should continue to shy away from HK50, CHINAH, and CN50 longs. USDCNH finds support below 7.3000, but few are buying yuan with conviction other than to cover yuan shorts.
• Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 1800 AEST) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 42.6 (from 42.7) and services at 50.5 (50.9). A weaker services PMI, especially if the data prints below 50 (the expansion/contraction line) and we could see better EUR sellers, with the GER40 eyeing a break of the July lows of 15,500. Tactically warming to EURCAD shorts.
• UK manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 18:30 AEST) – the market looks for manufacturing to come in at 45 (45.3) and services at 50.8 (51.5). GBP – the best performing major currency last week - could be sensitive to the services print.
• US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 2345 AEST) – with much focus on China’s markets, US real rates and Jackson Hole, there is less concern about US growth metrics. As a result, the outcome of this may have a limited impact on the USD – it is still a risk to have on the radar.
Jackson Hole Symposium – Fed chair Jay Powell will be the highlight of the conference (speaks Sat 00:05 AEST) – again, it’s still premature for Powell to declare victory in the Fed’s inflation fight and will likely emphasise there is still more work to be done. He may also spend time exploring a higher for longer mantra (for interest rates), with a focus on where they are modelling the neutral fed funds rate; possibly one for the PhDs and academics. Powell should re-affirm his view that rate cuts are not in their immediate thinking.
From a risk management perspective, I am sensing Jackson Hole/Powell’s speech to be tilted on the hawkish side, and therefore modestly USD positive. Although given the bull run in the USD one could argue a hawkish Powell is largely priced.
Other Jackson Hole speakers:
• Fed members Goolsbee and Bowman (23 Aug 05:30 AEST)
• Fed member Harker (25 Aug 23:00 AEST)
• ECB president Lagarde (26 Aug 05:00 AEST)
BRICS Summit in South Africa (Tuesday and Wednesday) – It’s hard to see this as market moving and a risk event for broad markets. However, with BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accounting for 32% of global GDP and some 23 countries wanting to join the union, there will be increased focus on their expansion plans. Some have linked the BRICS to an acceleration of global de-dollarization, and while a global reliance on the USD will likely fall over time, the movement is glacial. A common currency for this union – while possibly getting headlines at this summit - is not something that seems viable anytime soon.
Key corporate earnings:
US - Nvidia report earnings (aftermarket) – many will recall the 24% rally in the share price in Q1 earnings (in May) and hope for something similar. Given the incredible run and heavy positioning, it may need something truly inspiring to blow the lights out. The market prices an implied move on earnings is 10.2%, so one for those who like a bit of movement in their trading.
Australia – 68 ASX200 co’s report, including – BHP, Woodside Petroleum, Qantas, Northern Star and Wesfarmers
A Generational Mean Reversion is now UnderwayLast week I posted my long-term perspective of the SPX cash market from inception .
This is the reverse of that.
I am not an economist. I'm a pattern analyst and trader. Nonetheless, as a student of the economy, I find that rarely do fundamentals align with a technical forecast. I try to encourage my members to abstain from applying linear thinking to trading the markets. Case in point was the recent release of the CPI report. Prior to the release of that report CNBC contributor, Fundstrat Partner and America's favorite perma bull, Tom Lee, was quoted as saying...
"Investors should expect a "sizable rally" in the stock market following the Thursday release of the July CPI report", according to Fundstrat's Tom lee.
Post CPI release, the report was fairly in line with expectations, but the market sold off, and continued to sell off. There was no massive stock market rally post CPI release. How did that make sense? It's easy to proclaim bullish calls since the last 90 years in the stock market has been pretty much a 45-degree angle up from left to right on a chart. Statically, being bullish was good for business, attracts new clients, and no one likes a pessimist.
The time horizons of the two financial disciplines (Fundamental vs. Technical) are typically not aligned... unless those time horizons are long... very long . A long time horizon doesn't suit traders, they suit investors. But the more I delve into long term charts, the more I reflect on how this affects me, my family, and the generations to come.
I have shared my longer term perspective on the SP500 with my followers many times. I rarely, if ever, look at bonds. I don't trade them, and in terms of making a paycheck, my time is better spent elsewhere. Except this morning I decided to look at the 10-year bond yield. To me it's just another data point supporting my overall thesis that the markets are beginning a super cycle event that will play out over the course of the next couple decades.
On a recent conference call with members, I remarked that I received a direct message from a member who complained I was too bearish. I then apologized to attendees on the call because it is not within my nature to be pessimistic, or someone mired in doom and gloom. Shout out to Nouriel Roubini . But I concluded by showing my 150-year analysis of the SPX cash market on my screen via Zoom and concluded, "Unfortunately for the duration of the time you will ever know me, I will be bearish".
The above chart is a typical pattern that will play out. I cannot over emphasize that the pathway outlined above is run of the mill. Nothing about the above should shock any technician. This would be the same pattern outcome on any financial instrument given the above price action...it just happens to be the 10y bond yield. But my foray into the 10y bond yield chart has me thinking the following answers apply to the below questions.
Will mortgage rates come down in the short term so I can buy a house?
The chart above suggests in the intermediate term, yields will continue to rise into early to mid-2024 before retreating somewhat. However, if my analysis is correct...the areas of where they are now are going to be areas of short term mean reversion back up. It is from our current rate, that all subsequent yield rises will draw support from. So, my response to that question is, the time to buy a home will not be much better than right now in my life-time...it will only get incrementally less efficient to hold such a long-term loan.
With $5-6 trillion in money market funds (so called on the "Sidelines") how could the stock market decline by much with so much money available to potentially prop it up?
The above chart tells me the competition for cash and cash equivalents on a risk adjusted basis has not been this disadvantaged towards the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008. In my opinion, that disadvantage will only incrementally get worst. Cash will not be deployed into stocks like generations before based on competition and the risk associated. P/E ratios, book value...none of that is front and center as it pertains to those trillions of dollars. Cash being deployed now will always be gauging the associated risk/reward. That factor makes this different from all other equity market downturns.
Although so much of what I am uncovering manifests itself into our daily lives over the course of years and decades, and not weeks and months...therefore, we’re more likely to embrace apathy vs panic.
Nonetheless, I do view many markets through the lenses of long term mean reversion. I am still evaluating how that perspective can best be converted into action for long term benefit. I’m optimistic I have some time…(see I’m not entirely negative).
Best to all,
Chris
Powerful Sell Alerts on BTC/ETH/SPY ! Buy alerts on USD and % !Have to be extremely careful of alt bags if BTC and Eth are as bearish as they are
BTC is the sun to the space and when it falls hard the rest will follow harder. This means that we can lose 20% - 50% - 80% value in alts fast esp the low cap high risk alts.
These alerts can quickly change and new data needs to be reacted upon so have to stay up to date
This can mean that current candle printing may print and unprint esp on timeframes such as the monthly when its only half way thru the month.. all we have to go off is the current data and currently that is looking bearish for btc/eth/spy and bullish for usd/yields.'
If btc is the sun of the crypto space then US gov yields are the sun to the finance space
With the USD and Yields close to breaking out then this is another sign of weariness to risk positions esp low cap altcoins as a the height of risky positions.
Admiral Ackbar told me its a trap look
These breakouts in DXY and Yields can be a trap in which price goes just above piercing resistance only to fail.. and failed moves move fast. That would be a trap but it is speculation until more confirmed data comes in.
Follow and click the link in tradingview to keep up to date with the data
Cheers !
Most important chart there is right now. The bear steepener.Those who are not skeptical about pattern breakouts will take this chart seriously.
Looong-term US10year yieldTick tick...
Historic break out of the downward channel. Only yield curve control will get yields back into the channel. Is the next phase of QE going to be yield curve control...
US 10-year real rates (TIPS) – the rising true cost of capital US 10YR ‘real’ rates are essentially US 10yr Treasuries adjusted for 10yr inflation expectations – TradingView users can set this up using the equation: TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE.
We can see this as the true cost of capital and in effect, the higher yields rise the more this supports the USD and negatively impacts US equity valuations. The rate of change (ROC) is always important, but if US 10yr real rates head to 2% then this may accelerate the selling in the US500 and NAS100.
US10YR YeildMinimum counter cycle of 10 yrs or more with a target price described in the video.
Please watch video for exact points.
Thank you.
US debt ceiling debacle and US 10-year yieldsUS 10-year bond yields have been trending lower since Oct 2022 after touching high around 4.250%. The rise in the 10-year yield from the past two weeks saw yields stop just short of the blue 61.8% Fibo level of 3.885%. Yields are currently testing the 200-day MA rate of 3.649% and a break below will allow bonds to rally further towards the 50-day MA rate of 5.525% which coincides with the black 61.8% Fibo rate of 3.474%.
I expect bond yields to get intimidating soon as the bond rally runs out of steam. Here follows the main fundamental reasons why I believe 10-year bond yields will soon climb above 4.00%.
1. Global financial conditions are easing, and excess liquidity is rising. Short-term rates seem to be peaking not just in the US but globally. Once global rates have peaked, it will allow the market to price in a future cyclical upturn for the US economy. Longer-term yields will capture this sentiment by moving higher as investors will prefer riskier assets to reap the rewards on buoyant liquidity conditions.
2. Inflation is becoming entrenched. Bonds are not a good inflation hedge which will further motivate the sell-off in longer-term treasuries. Heightened inflation expectations are the canary in the coal mine warning that bond holders may soon demand extra yield to lend money.
3. Bond issuance will rise when the debt-ceiling debacle is resolved. Additionally, the debt ceiling has brought scrutiny to the US’s fiscal situation which will dampen investor appetite for US debt (safe haven or not). Furthermore, foreign reserve holders have begun to diversify their holdings, while elevated short-term rates have raised FX hedging costs and kept buyers like Japan away.
Japanese Yen & USD Death Spiral In Action - YCC Yin Yang
Things are getting interesting in bond land, Japanese central bank balance sheet increasing after 09 to keep US bond yields down is finally starting to show signs of fail.
This system is starting to break due to investors losing faith in the system.
As faith is lost US bonds are sold, as US bonds are sold Yields go parabolic, Japan has been a US proxy since 09 to keep US yields in place
Stage 1
This works very well from Japan points of view due to how bad 1989 was and how the mentality of debt, leverage got destroyed essentially making the speculation market dead.
It allows the Central Bank Of Japan to create money and allow cheap credit near 0% interest rates without the problem of inflation. Now since 2020 this model has broken and Japan is getting inflation this is almost red alert due to the leverage of money supply in bonds.
Stage 2
US M2 / JP M2 debasement work together making the illusion the DXY is strong when in reality the US is forcing the EU / JP to debase pushing up the DXY.
Japanese Bond Yields have started to break causing actual investors to dump Japan bonds and US Bonds forcing the Japan Central Bank to do hard YCC on both JP and US Bonds.
BUT the increase in us interest rates has sparked even more selling of US Bonds and even more Japan YCC, the treasury debt interest is also almost at 1 Trillion.
Conclusion
Japanese Bonds & The US Bonds are finally in a Yin Yang death spiral feeding off each other and its starting to get out of control, Bank of Japan are even starting to panic.
Japan literally cannot raise interest rates as they would blow up the entire system due to debt interest being the largest holder of US debt.
The FRED will be forced to implement some type of Yield Curve Control on Japanese Debt while giving Japan time to Yield Curve Control the US Debt, meanwhile? Bitcoin is actually moving in correlation with the Japanese Central Bank Balance sheet.
QE To Infinity is closer than people think for those who don't know the US bond market is valued at $51tn.
Japan valued at $12.3tn
This market will have to be forced into QE / YCC as the bonds are the collateral for the world banks if they fail the world fails.
US10YHi....how about that...it seems to be so close to the top...my guess is 4.3_4.4% is potential retrace range for US10Y.
Good luck
US 10Y TREASURY: gearing to revert?The latest macro data are showing that the inflation is easing, however, it remains sticky. There is a lot of discussion among economists lately, whether CPI will remain on its downtrend, or we could expect another spike in inflation figures in the coming months. The PPI index posted during the previous week is showing that the inflation might stay resilient for some time. Investors ended the previous week digesting these mixed data. At the same time, the US Treasuries reacted with modestly higher yields. 10Y Treasuries ended the week at level of 4.15%, while were traded around 4% during the week.
The next Fed move cannot be anticipated with a higher level of certainty as it was for the FOMC July session because of currently mixed data. Fed Chair Powell is continuously stressing that Fed decisions will be data driven. In this way the market also reacted on Friday`s session to PPI data, anticipating another rate hike by the Fed. Markets were close to the level of 4.2%, which is significant in a sense, that it might further open a path for yields to reach 4.4% as they did last time in October 2022. However, for the moment there is a much higher probability that yields will revert a bit toward the 4.0% in order to test this level for one more time.
On the bond-stock inverted relationshipTaking a look at the charts: we've got the US10Y yield curve up against the S&P500 and the US06M yield curve. When the US06M curve crosses over the US10Y curve, it's like a signal that investors are feeling the jitters about borrowing money in the short term. This kind of move suggests they're worried a recession might roll in, which could make it tough for the government to manage its loans.
On the flip side, let's talk about the stock market. It's the front-runner when it comes to catching the wind of an expanding economy. And it's also the last one to pick up on the scent of an economic downturn. So, when things are looking up, stocks are quick to rise. But when a recession is lurking, stocks are slow to catch on.
In conclusion, closely observing the interplay of financial indicators, such as the US10Y yield curve, the S&P500, and the US06M yield curve, offers valuable insights into the dynamics of investor sentiment and economic cycles. When the US06M yield curve crosses the US10Y curve, it serves as a noteworthy sign that investors are exhibiting caution in short-term borrowing. This cautiousness stems from concerns that an impending recession could potentially complicate the government's ability to manage its debt obligations.
Conversely, the stock market operates as a barometer, attuned to the winds of economic expansion. It takes the lead in reflecting positive economic shifts, surging with optimism. However, it tends to lag when it comes to recognizing the onset of economic downturns, reflecting the cautious pace at which investors recognize recessionary phases.
In this intricate dance between yield curves and stock market trends, investors and analysts gain insights that help guide their financial decisions and strategies. The complex relationship between these indicators paints a multifaceted picture of economic conditions, contributing to a deeper understanding of the financial landscape and aiding in the pursuit of informed and prudent choices.
Bond benders Checking in on the US 10-year yield it looks like yields are holding levels above 4.00% and a break above 4.20% will allow bond to bend further towards the 2022 high of 4.328%.
Yield Inversion US10Y-US02Y vs SPX - We have 6 monthsEvery time the yield curve has gone negative, a market crash follows eventually. The trick is knowing when that happens. Nobody knows.
When the yield inversion starts rising again, that's a sign it's about to pop. Better start selling out of markets into USD. DXY will start rising again eventually.
Looking at the charts, my guess is 6 months tops before we reach a market high in a mega melt up. December 2023 to March 2024 is the top.
Markets will become very volatile! Sell on the way up! Put in sell orders at specific prices you'd be happy with profits. Then wait for your sell orders to trigger and for the money to come in!
We are at the end of a multi-year bubble which is about to pop. Protect your capital! But not yet!
Is the 2y bond telling us something? HAS THE CRASH BEGUN?Bonds yields have been moving up at a fast pace recently - the 2 year bond yield moved between may and now nearly a full percentage point. Currently at the levels seen around 2008 right before the markets crashed. With real rates on the 3 Month bill actually reaching the exact rate before 08 crisis.
One thing I noticed is that the longer end of the curve, i.e bonds with longer maturity have risen at a faster pace as well in the recent weeks.
Hedge funds put massive bets in the last few weeks that yields would go higher ( shorting bonds) and I wonder if higher bonds pushing for higher rates is what may be the trigger that puts us into a recession and I do think into a real crash in the stock market.
What do I mean? I think that the market has realized that inflation has been going down in many areas as shown month after month on the CPI, PCE and such reports. Although, there are still many areas where inflation exists and does not seem to be going anywhere, such as real estate, energy, and even food. Another big factor here is loan payments, mortgage payments, that people are paying on cars, houses, etc. So people are not saving, people are taking more and more credit as shown recently that we are currently at record levels of credit card debt and the lowest rate of savings in over a decade.
The optimism in the market since the start of the year, was so that the market started to be ok with the fact that rates would be going to around 5%-5.5%, and even pricing in rate cuts during 2024- as we all know, the markets are forward looking, so equity prices started moving higher.
But after all this, we have reached a point where the market is questioning valuations when we have a good return in "risk free" assets, and with so much concentration in a handful of names bringing great companies at trillions of dollars of market cap but with no where near a reasonable price relative for the risks. Not to mention the soft earnings, yes we beat expectations, but is it really hard to beat such low expectations? if you look at earnings in compared to a year ago you will see that there is hardly any growth and even no growth and lower sales.
Back to Bonds- why would yields go up?
Fitch downgrading the US credit market is one reason, but not at all the whole story. Sticky inflation could another reason.
One major one which I think has been forgotten recently, is the banks. Reginal banks and even more larger banks have on their balance sheets loads of us treasuries, when SVB and First republic collapsed, it showed how fragile the banks are to rising yield rates on the securities they hold. Now that is is happening again, and this time along with longer maturity securities, I think there may be a real crisis waiting to unravel. Perhaps bringing dozens of banks to the brink of collapse. This is something that would be to great for JP Morgan or any other major bank to buyout and save by themselves.
On another note The market is showing its concern, for fiscal issues, real problems with the US paying over a trillion Dollars a year just on interest payments. Less income on taxes and much more spending due to inflation. I think the current environment is screaming a lack of trust and wants real returns for the risks in takin on more US debt, so rates are going up.
How much higher can yields go without something breaking?
I think the 30y mortgage rate at 7%+ currently is going to be another breaking point.
Without going to further in the housing market, I will just note that with rent prices at all time highs in many cities, could be a signal that home owners are trying to get a yield on their investment that can cover their mortgage expenses which are rising. Putting the expense on the renter. When it reaches a level where renters cannot pay these amounts that's when owners cannot keep their homes, selling starts. Home owners seeing rates rising ( 10Y bond is the best indicator as most Mortgage brokers use that to calculate rates ahead) can start to panic and sell.
So I do think that if there will be a total crash it will happen simultaneously in many markets and will obviously cause major panic and mayhem. This time the Fed wont be able to do much, printing money will be seen as a major fiscal risk and may cause the end of the dollar all together, inevitably a major correction will be needed to reset financial valuations and restore confidence in the debt markets.
To summarize, there are definitely cracks, and real risks that seem to outweigh the current reward in the equity markets..
Yields Surging / TLT FallingThe technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing.
The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year.
Imagine TLT long bond traders!
Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very forward looking.
