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Government bonds

US 10-year real rates (TIPS) – the rising true cost of capital US 10YR ‘real’ rates are essentially US 10yr Treasuries adjusted for 10yr inflation expectations – TradingView users can set this up using the equation: TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE. We can see this as the true cost of capital and in effect, the higher yields rise the more this supports the USD and negatively impacts US equity valuations. The rate of change (ROC) is always important, but if US 10yr real rates head to 2% then this may accelerate the selling in the US500 and NAS100.
TVC:US10YLong
by Pepperstone
US debt ceiling debacle and US 10-year yieldsUS 10-year bond yields have been trending lower since Oct 2022 after touching high around 4.250%. The rise in the 10-year yield from the past two weeks saw yields stop just short of the blue 61.8% Fibo level of 3.885%. Yields are currently testing the 200-day MA rate of 3.649% and a break below will allow bonds to rally further towards the 50-day MA rate of 5.525% which coincides with the black 61.8% Fibo rate of 3.474%. I expect bond yields to get intimidating soon as the bond rally runs out of steam. Here follows the main fundamental reasons why I believe 10-year bond yields will soon climb above 4.00%. 1. Global financial conditions are easing, and excess liquidity is rising. Short-term rates seem to be peaking not just in the US but globally. Once global rates have peaked, it will allow the market to price in a future cyclical upturn for the US economy. Longer-term yields will capture this sentiment by moving higher as investors will prefer riskier assets to reap the rewards on buoyant liquidity conditions. 2. Inflation is becoming entrenched. Bonds are not a good inflation hedge which will further motivate the sell-off in longer-term treasuries. Heightened inflation expectations are the canary in the coal mine warning that bond holders may soon demand extra yield to lend money. 3. Bond issuance will rise when the debt-ceiling debacle is resolved. Additionally, the debt ceiling has brought scrutiny to the US’s fiscal situation which will dampen investor appetite for US debt (safe haven or not). Furthermore, foreign reserve holders have begun to diversify their holdings, while elevated short-term rates have raised FX hedging costs and kept buyers like Japan away.
TVC:US10Y
by Goose96
1
Japanese Yen & USD Death Spiral In Action - YCC Yin Yang Things are getting interesting in bond land, Japanese central bank balance sheet increasing after 09 to keep US bond yields down is finally starting to show signs of fail. This system is starting to break due to investors losing faith in the system. As faith is lost US bonds are sold, as US bonds are sold Yields go parabolic, Japan has been a US proxy since 09 to keep US yields in place Stage 1 This works very well from Japan points of view due to how bad 1989 was and how the mentality of debt, leverage got destroyed essentially making the speculation market dead. It allows the Central Bank Of Japan to create money and allow cheap credit near 0% interest rates without the problem of inflation. Now since 2020 this model has broken and Japan is getting inflation this is almost red alert due to the leverage of money supply in bonds. Stage 2 US M2 / JP M2 debasement work together making the illusion the DXY is strong when in reality the US is forcing the EU / JP to debase pushing up the DXY. Japanese Bond Yields have started to break causing actual investors to dump Japan bonds and US Bonds forcing the Japan Central Bank to do hard YCC on both JP and US Bonds. BUT the increase in us interest rates has sparked even more selling of US Bonds and even more Japan YCC, the treasury debt interest is also almost at 1 Trillion. Conclusion Japanese Bonds & The US Bonds are finally in a Yin Yang death spiral feeding off each other and its starting to get out of control, Bank of Japan are even starting to panic. Japan literally cannot raise interest rates as they would blow up the entire system due to debt interest being the largest holder of US debt. The FRED will be forced to implement some type of Yield Curve Control on Japanese Debt while giving Japan time to Yield Curve Control the US Debt, meanwhile? Bitcoin is actually moving in correlation with the Japanese Central Bank Balance sheet. QE To Infinity is closer than people think for those who don't know the US bond market is valued at $51tn. Japan valued at $12.3tn This market will have to be forced into QE / YCC as the bonds are the collateral for the world banks if they fail the world fails.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT
US 10Y TREASURY: gearing to revert?The latest macro data are showing that the inflation is easing, however, it remains sticky. There is a lot of discussion among economists lately, whether CPI will remain on its downtrend, or we could expect another spike in inflation figures in the coming months. The PPI index posted during the previous week is showing that the inflation might stay resilient for some time. Investors ended the previous week digesting these mixed data. At the same time, the US Treasuries reacted with modestly higher yields. 10Y Treasuries ended the week at level of 4.15%, while were traded around 4% during the week. The next Fed move cannot be anticipated with a higher level of certainty as it was for the FOMC July session because of currently mixed data. Fed Chair Powell is continuously stressing that Fed decisions will be data driven. In this way the market also reacted on Friday`s session to PPI data, anticipating another rate hike by the Fed. Markets were close to the level of 4.2%, which is significant in a sense, that it might further open a path for yields to reach 4.4% as they did last time in October 2022. However, for the moment there is a much higher probability that yields will revert a bit toward the 4.0% in order to test this level for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
On the bond-stock inverted relationshipTaking a look at the charts: we've got the US10Y yield curve up against the S&P500 and the US06M yield curve. When the US06M curve crosses over the US10Y curve, it's like a signal that investors are feeling the jitters about borrowing money in the short term. This kind of move suggests they're worried a recession might roll in, which could make it tough for the government to manage its loans. On the flip side, let's talk about the stock market. It's the front-runner when it comes to catching the wind of an expanding economy. And it's also the last one to pick up on the scent of an economic downturn. So, when things are looking up, stocks are quick to rise. But when a recession is lurking, stocks are slow to catch on. In conclusion, closely observing the interplay of financial indicators, such as the US10Y yield curve, the S&P500, and the US06M yield curve, offers valuable insights into the dynamics of investor sentiment and economic cycles. When the US06M yield curve crosses the US10Y curve, it serves as a noteworthy sign that investors are exhibiting caution in short-term borrowing. This cautiousness stems from concerns that an impending recession could potentially complicate the government's ability to manage its debt obligations. Conversely, the stock market operates as a barometer, attuned to the winds of economic expansion. It takes the lead in reflecting positive economic shifts, surging with optimism. However, it tends to lag when it comes to recognizing the onset of economic downturns, reflecting the cautious pace at which investors recognize recessionary phases. In this intricate dance between yield curves and stock market trends, investors and analysts gain insights that help guide their financial decisions and strategies. The complex relationship between these indicators paints a multifaceted picture of economic conditions, contributing to a deeper understanding of the financial landscape and aiding in the pursuit of informed and prudent choices.
TVC:US10Y
by jacoprofit
2
Yield Inversion US10Y-US02Y vs SPX - We have 6 monthsEvery time the yield curve has gone negative, a market crash follows eventually. The trick is knowing when that happens. Nobody knows. When the yield inversion starts rising again, that's a sign it's about to pop. Better start selling out of markets into USD. DXY will start rising again eventually. Looking at the charts, my guess is 6 months tops before we reach a market high in a mega melt up. December 2023 to March 2024 is the top. Markets will become very volatile! Sell on the way up! Put in sell orders at specific prices you'd be happy with profits. Then wait for your sell orders to trigger and for the money to come in! We are at the end of a multi-year bubble which is about to pop. Protect your capital! But not yet!
TVC:US10YLong
by brian7683
Is the 2y bond telling us something? HAS THE CRASH BEGUN?Bonds yields have been moving up at a fast pace recently - the 2 year bond yield moved between may and now nearly a full percentage point. Currently at the levels seen around 2008 right before the markets crashed. With real rates on the 3 Month bill actually reaching the exact rate before 08 crisis. One thing I noticed is that the longer end of the curve, i.e bonds with longer maturity have risen at a faster pace as well in the recent weeks. Hedge funds put massive bets in the last few weeks that yields would go higher ( shorting bonds) and I wonder if higher bonds pushing for higher rates is what may be the trigger that puts us into a recession and I do think into a real crash in the stock market. What do I mean? I think that the market has realized that inflation has been going down in many areas as shown month after month on the CPI, PCE and such reports. Although, there are still many areas where inflation exists and does not seem to be going anywhere, such as real estate, energy, and even food. Another big factor here is loan payments, mortgage payments, that people are paying on cars, houses, etc. So people are not saving, people are taking more and more credit as shown recently that we are currently at record levels of credit card debt and the lowest rate of savings in over a decade. The optimism in the market since the start of the year, was so that the market started to be ok with the fact that rates would be going to around 5%-5.5%, and even pricing in rate cuts during 2024- as we all know, the markets are forward looking, so equity prices started moving higher. But after all this, we have reached a point where the market is questioning valuations when we have a good return in "risk free" assets, and with so much concentration in a handful of names bringing great companies at trillions of dollars of market cap but with no where near a reasonable price relative for the risks. Not to mention the soft earnings, yes we beat expectations, but is it really hard to beat such low expectations? if you look at earnings in compared to a year ago you will see that there is hardly any growth and even no growth and lower sales. Back to Bonds- why would yields go up? Fitch downgrading the US credit market is one reason, but not at all the whole story. Sticky inflation could another reason. One major one which I think has been forgotten recently, is the banks. Reginal banks and even more larger banks have on their balance sheets loads of us treasuries, when SVB and First republic collapsed, it showed how fragile the banks are to rising yield rates on the securities they hold. Now that is is happening again, and this time along with longer maturity securities, I think there may be a real crisis waiting to unravel. Perhaps bringing dozens of banks to the brink of collapse. This is something that would be to great for JP Morgan or any other major bank to buyout and save by themselves. On another note The market is showing its concern, for fiscal issues, real problems with the US paying over a trillion Dollars a year just on interest payments. Less income on taxes and much more spending due to inflation. I think the current environment is screaming a lack of trust and wants real returns for the risks in takin on more US debt, so rates are going up. How much higher can yields go without something breaking? I think the 30y mortgage rate at 7%+ currently is going to be another breaking point. Without going to further in the housing market, I will just note that with rent prices at all time highs in many cities, could be a signal that home owners are trying to get a yield on their investment that can cover their mortgage expenses which are rising. Putting the expense on the renter. When it reaches a level where renters cannot pay these amounts that's when owners cannot keep their homes, selling starts. Home owners seeing rates rising ( 10Y bond is the best indicator as most Mortgage brokers use that to calculate rates ahead) can start to panic and sell. So I do think that if there will be a total crash it will happen simultaneously in many markets and will obviously cause major panic and mayhem. This time the Fed wont be able to do much, printing money will be seen as a major fiscal risk and may cause the end of the dollar all together, inevitably a major correction will be needed to reset financial valuations and restore confidence in the debt markets. To summarize, there are definitely cracks, and real risks that seem to outweigh the current reward in the equity markets..
TVC:US02YShort
by LEO_IAMNOTUNCERTAIN_55555
1
US 10Y TREASURY: just a short easing?Surprising news hit the market during the previous week, when rating agency Fitch announced that it has downgraded the US government long-term debt credit rating by one notch to AA+. Market reacted with a negative sentiment. Equity markets went to downside, while Treasury yields went to upside. US 10Y Treasuries moved from 3.9% up to the highest weekly level at 4.2%. Still, yields have ended the week at level of 4.0%. A move above 4% opened a path toward the 4.4% level, where yields were last standing during October last year, however, there is still time in the future until this level is reached again. For the moment, markets are focused on US inflation data which will be released during the week ahead. Depending on the results, some market volatility might be expected, especially, considering that posted average hourly earnings showed an increase of 0.4% for July. The level of 4% will be tested at the beginning of the week, with some probability that 3.9% might be reached. At this moment charts are not pointing that yields might go lower from this level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Nebula Nights: An Interstellar ImmersionI have shared my primary case on this back in may. This is a public repost for those who are still around. Original: --- This chart is the #1 reason why the global market will drop from here: Debt is going to reach unsustainable levels, banks will deny companies on the brink of bankruptcy loans, commercial real estate will spiral down at speeds never seen before, and the us stock market will get slashed by 50% into next year. Oh yeah, and 401k's will turn into 201k's. --- Us10y w5 algo sits at 5.9%.
TVC:US10YLong
by notoriousbids
2
Will S&P500 Win? Or it will lose?😁Do you Remember in March 2020 when Rates were the lowest it had ever been I think since the Entire History of its Trading on the Open Market? Well Nothing is Permanent in this world since Covid lows it has rallied quite a lot. It would certainly be interesting to see what happens next. Lets Discuss the Key Levels to Watch first Right Now it is currently at almost 3.6%ish level. If we see a Break below 3.2% ish level then it will open the Gate to Go even lower maybe at 2.5% level. And that would be quite Bullish for S&P500 or the Whole General Stock Market. Alternate Count : Maybe Trend is your Friend and it will continue to Keep Making Higher Highs and all that Nonsense sfuff. A break above 4.3% level would be a very Bullish Thing for this Market and that would put Pressure on S&P500 to stay below it's All Time Highs. If this scenario does indeed plays out a lot of people might not be happy. Again in Trading/Investing Hope for the best but prepare for the Worst🙂 Final Thing to say : Robert Prechter, the Famous Elliott Wave Analyst in his Elliott Wave Theorist actually said that it would be a very rare thing to see this thing test again at Covid lows. So he is infact Quite Bullish and says a Major Rally has begun since its 2020 lows. And ultimately we could see Bonds test it All time Highs. If that seriously were to happen than Whole Stock Market would collapse or atleast be in a Corrective Environment. He is quite Bearish on the Outlook of Stock Markets based on his Elliott Wave Counting. He also said that this is the Worst Decade to get invested. He is quite a Smart and Intelligent Person but we shall see what happens. Maybe he could be correct who knows with the Nature of Financial Markets one can never be One Hundred Percent Sure about Anything. What do you think? For the time being let's have Patience and watch our Key Levels
TVC:US10Y
by UnknownUnicorn7529057
1
US10 YEAR BOND YIELDHi everybody , Look at my beautiful analysis about rising 10y bond yield ...lokk at how it affect on us stock market .....follow my posts to be far from hype and euphoria ... but be aware it is going to be close to the significant resistance ... and i think dxy is going to be close to big obstacle as well therefore dont sell off your gold and ..... link of my previous idea :https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/kld1jbtQ-US10Y/ Good luck,think inverse the crowd
TVC:US10Y
by Logical_Markets