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Ready for 6.5% on the 10Y T-Bill?It’s been a while since I’ve posted an Idea, however since the market may be at a pivotal point I thought I’d do a quick analysis on the $US10Y. Using elliott wave and fibonacci ratios as my base logic, I predict that we could see a 6.5% or higher 10 year T-bill in the near future. The fib extension above is based off 1.00 of Primary waves 0-3. I’m counting that we are in the early stages of the 5th and final wave, which is commonly 61.8% of waves 0-3 in length. My wave count is supported by the DMI indicator and the 50sma (Blue) & 100sma (yellow). The yield is still above the moving averages, signaling a continuation to the upside. Primary wave 4 was a zig zag (A-B-C) pattern in a slightly descending channel, which has a tendency to break to the upside. With inflation proving stubborn and a looming trade war providing a backdrop that is concerning to investors, it is time we get back into the mindset that the inflation battle isn’t quite over yet. Yields are rising across the world and the US is no exception.
TVC:US10YLong
by ap769
U.S. 10-Year Yield (US10Y): Traders Watch Key LevelsThe U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is one of the most important indicators in the financial world, influencing everything from mortgage rates to stock market trends. It reflects investor confidence in the economy, rising when expectations for growth and inflation increase and falling when investors seek safer assets. The yield is closely watched by traders, economists, and policymakers as a key gauge of market sentiment. The chart recently showed a confirmation bar, moving into the momentum zone, which happens when the price rises above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This signals a potential continuation in trend direction and increased interest from investors around inflation.
TVC:US10YLong
by traderspro_charts
EUR/USD short: End of the rebound higherHello traders My TP at 1.0370 was executed on my long EUR/USD position. I have initiated a short EUR/USD position after Chair Powell's testimony this morning. He expressed confidence in the economy staying robust and that there is no rush to cut interest rates. The chart is my guiding light on a daily basis to determine which direction risk is heading. EUR/USD is heading down again after testing the daily breakdown at 1.0382. USD CPI tomorrow MAY reverse the tide again, so keep a close eye on all these asset classes. www.tradingview.com Best of luck all.
TVC:US10Y
by jvrfxalerts
2
Results Of QE TighteningWhat you're seeing in this chart is the 10 year. A great one to watch to see what the market is thinking. The 10 year is showing the results of QE tightening and Trumps willingness to curb the debt problem. What Trump is doing is healthy, this market needs it. To the moon does not last forever. It is looking like a twist coming in the MACD but looking previously it would have been considered a fake out. Unless Trump comes in and saves this market tomorrow could be a bloodbath. This scenario is on borrowed time regardless. We are literally bleeding dollar bills out of our ears. BRICS abandoned the dollar as we know, although tradable. During the Great Depression JP Morgan bailed out the market. People said he saved people but the people that were wiped were already gone, he saw the bottom coming in which just made JP Morgan the wealthiest company in history. Fast forward to now, nobody is bailing $37 trillion. This an end game, again, unless Trump or The Fed steps in.
TVC:US10Y
by JennyMurphy
US 10Y TREASURY: higher on inflation expectationsThe major data release during the previous week was the US jobs report. The on-farm payrolls were lower from market expectations, at the level of 143K, however, this was not a concern of the market. The major indicator which moved the US Treasury yields to the higher grounds was a drop in unemployment combined with an increase in hourly earnings of 0,5% and higher from markets initial estimate. The increase in wages implies higher consumption and in the last instance, higher inflation. In addition, the Michigan inflation expectations rose to the level of 4,1%, indicating that US consumer sentiment stands on expectation of a higher inflation during this year. This was a signal to markets that the Fed will potentially hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time. The 10Y US benchmark rose on Friday to the level of 4,51%, but ended the week at 4,49%. Investors will certainly use the week ahead to digest the latest jobs data in the US. In this sense, some smaller correction in yields might be possible. Still, the US trade tariffs continue to be a concern of investors, in which sense, any negative news related to imposed tariffs might swiftly push the yields again to the higher grounds.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
CPI week for US 10-year yieldsSince my last idea on US10-year yields the Fed opted to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.50% and the latest NFP print came in at a lackluster 143 thousand in January, down from 307 thousand in December. These two events provide a contradicting impact for US longer term yields as the weaker labour market results is indicative that the Fed may have to continue cutting rates to stimulate the economy, which is positive for bonds, while the Feds decision to pause rates plays the ball into the court of a move higher in yields towards 5.00%. US 10-year yields touched a low of 4.4% last week before the 50-day MA at 4.50% provided support. The 50-day MA is my critical level to watch as a break below this level will invalidate my ideas calling for a move towards 5.00%. A failed move above 4.50% will allow bond bulls to pull yields onto the 200-day MA at 4.25% which coincides with the blue downward neckline and the 61.8 Fibo retracement. A break above 4.50% will however support my idea of a 5-wave impulse higher towards 5.00%. The week ahead has two major events on the cards that will influence the US bond market. The first of which is Fed chair Powell’s testimony before congress. I’m not expecting anything new here besides the usual gibberish and double-speak but keep an ear out for the status of the Fed’s taper progress and any comments on the low liquidity levels of the Fed’s reverse repo facility. The next event is where the significance lies, the US CPI print for January which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. Inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the US 10-year yields packing and making its way to 5.00% since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer. Also worth noting is that the US 10-year yield topped out at 4.8% when the CPI print came in as expected at 2.9% so this time around a stronger than expected print may serve to mark the bottom at 4.4%. (Always remember, CPI is a lie).
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
Head & Shoulder 10 Year Bond - Possible Bond Yield ReversalIn this chart I noticed the 10 Year Bond is forming a Head & Shoulders Pattern. If this plays out it would be Bullish !!! Typically when the 10-Year Bond retraces asset prices go up. Aka Prices increase to the upside !! The RSI is also bouncing from lows nearly reaching the oversold level but not quite. It's possible that there is more downside left on the RSI and that levels continue to go down. I will be watching the RSI closely to see how it changes over the following days and weeks. This market is CRAZY !!!
TVC:US10Y
by CryptoAndy18
2
WHAT'S FLOWING: EURAUD | CADCHF | GBPAUD | BRENT | COPPER + MORETop Row Charts: EUR/AUD (Top Left): Market is trending upwards, labeled as "LONG", possibly indicating a buy signal based on the trend or setup shown. CAD/CHF (Top Middle): Seems to be range-bound with no distinct trend breakout, potentially in consolidation. GBP/AUD (Top Right): Marked as "LONG", showing a bullish trend continuation. Bottom Row Charts: Brent Crude Oil (Bottom Left): Labeled as "SHORT", indicating potential bearish momentum or correction. Copper (Bottom Middle): Another chart marked "SHORT", likely reflecting a downtrend or sell signal. UK100 Index (Bottom Right): This chart also indicates "SHORT", suggesting possible weakness in the index. DXY (Bottom Right): Labeled as "FLAT", indicating a lack of directional bias in the U.S. dollar index, showing indecisive or range-bound trading. These charts seem to be using TPO (Time Price Opportunity) profiles and volume profiles, which help traders analyze price action around key levels, identifying areas of value or imbalance. You are likely monitoring multiple assets (forex pairs, commodities, indices) for potential trade setups, distinguishing between trending and consolidating markets.
FPMARKETS:US10YR
by moneymagnateash
THE MACRO: GOLD / $ / COMMODITIES / ASIA EMWelcome to THE MACRO, where we take a big-picture view of the financial markets, analyzing long-term investment trends, macroeconomic shifts, and strategic positioning for major plays. In today’s episode, we’re diving into gold, bonds, the U.S. dollar, commodities, and global indices to understand where the smart money is flowing for 2025 and beyond. Key Macro Themes in Focus 1. Gold & Gold Miners – Inflation Hedge & Safe Haven? • Gold futures continue their long-term uptrend, holding strong above key support levels. • Gold miners (GDX ETF) are lagging behind physical gold prices, presenting a potential value gap—is this an opportunity for long-term investors? • With real yields fluctuating, gold remains a hedge against monetary policy uncertainty. 2. U.S. Government Bonds & Interest Rate Outlook • The U.S. 2-Year Yield is stabilizing after an aggressive tightening cycle. • Global bond yields (EU, CAD, MXN) suggest divergence in monetary policy—could rate cuts in 2025 boost bond markets and risk assets? • Watching yield curve movements to gauge potential economic slowdown or soft landing. 3. U.S. Dollar Strength & Its Macro Impact • The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is showing relative strength, bouncing off support levels. • A strong USD puts pressure on emerging markets and commodities—if the dollar weakens, expect risk-on assets to rally. • What are central banks doing? Watching foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy adjustments. 4. Commodities – Inflation, Supply, & Demand Shifts • Corn & Wheat futures are showing signs of a bottoming structure, supported by demand-side recovery and potential supply constraints. • Agricultural commodities are historically undervalued compared to inflation-adjusted levels—this could be an inflation hedge for long-term investors. 5. Global Equities – China & Hong Kong Markets • Hang Seng Index is forming a potential reversal pattern, suggesting renewed investor interest. • Global capital flows into Asian equities might indicate a shifting macro landscape as China attempts stimulus-driven growth. Macro Investment Takeaways 1. Gold remains a key inflation & risk hedge, but miners are lagging—potential opportunity? 2. Bond markets are stabilizing—watch yield curves for signals of recession or soft landing. 3. The U.S. Dollar’s strength is a key macro driver—will it break higher or roll over? 4. Commodities (corn, wheat) are showing long-term bottoms, could be undervalued. 5. Asian equity markets (Hang Seng) are at critical turning points—global capital shifts in play. Final Thoughts: Positioning for the Long Term • Are we in a late-stage cycle where defensive assets shine (gold, bonds)? • Or are risk-on plays like commodities & emerging markets primed for a comeback? • Watching global policy decisions for clues on positioning in 2025 and beyond. This has been THE MACRO, where we track long-term investment plays and macroeconomic trends. Stay tuned for more insights as we follow the big picture moves shaping global markets! #TheMacro #LongTermInvesting #MacroTrends
TVC:US02Y
by moneymagnateash
Euro Schatz Future Quote Feature | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Euro Schatz Future Quote Feature - Double Formation * 1st Trendline | Completed Survey | Subdivision 1 * 2nd Trendline | Uptrend Bias & Entry - Triple Formation * 012345 Wave Count & Long Set Up Feature | Subdivision 2 * ABC Flat | Sideways Mark Up | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
FX:SCHATZ
by TradePolitics
LONG 10YR Note FuturesThis could have just as well been 10Y. Forex or ZN Futures in any case a rate play in a cycle of increasing commodity prices (Cocoa, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton, Cattle, etc...) so to the 10yr rate in a period of accelerating rates and accelerating to stagnant growth. We are here at the edge or LOWER BOUND of a daily risk range volatility adjusted in a bull market which means its time to pull the trigger. Play a stop on a break a little bit below the trend line to your own risk tolerance but give it a little room to breathe.
TVC:US10YLong
by bitofamacroman
US 10Y Yields - End of January AnalysisToday is an important day as it marks the first day of a new month, giving me the added advantage of analysing the full month’s candle close as well as a weekly close. Here, I share with you how fundamentals this month affected price action and where in the medium to long term the market can reprice up/down into. The highs for the month is 4.809% The lows for the month is 4.488% Candle body closure above 4.818% will negate my bearish notion of retracing down into the November 2024 monthly bullish order block.
TVC:US10YShort
by LegendSince
"the top is in", "for the rates"gm, markets tend to be forward looking, and based off my understanding + the chart data, it appears the top is in for the rates. i predict the market will begin to price in future rate cuts and start bringing the us10y down. this will open the door to a "risk on" enviroment for big tech, as well as risk assets like crypto . --- the count on the us10y is relatively simple. 5 waves up from the 2020 lows. predicting 3 waves down into the year ahead. the low on the us10y should coincide with a high in the global liquidity index,,, which is set to peak into the end first month of 2026. 🌙 --- ps. check out the last us10y update from 2 years ago via:
TVC:US10YShort
by notoriousbids
US 10Y TREASURY: relieved tensions, for the momentMuch of the tension collected for the last month has been relieved after the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected and also there were no surprises when it comes to the future course of inflation and potential Fed moves. However, Friday was a game changer, as the US President announced implementation of new import tariffs for goods coming from Canada, Mexico and China. Although the 10Y Treasury yields reached the 4,48% on Thursday, still, Friday news reverted the course of yields to the upside, bringing them to the level of 4,58%. It will certainly take the next week until markets digest all new information regarding tariffs and its potential effect on the US economy. This also might have implications on the future course of inflation and also in the last instance, to Fed interest rate decisions in the future. For the week ahead, it should also be taken into account that non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are scheduled for a release, in which sense, market volatility might continue.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1Q2025 updateJust a quick update on my previous idea linked below. The US 10-year yield has come off and completed a 4th wave lower onto the 50-day MA of 4.83%. If this support and the current upward channel holds its ground, I expect a 5th wave higher to rip yields toward the 5% level. A break below the blue support range between 4.45% and 4.5% will however invalidate the move and allow yields to ease towards 4.20%. President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit. Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive? Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar... Additionally, attached in the comments is the progress that the Fed has made on its balance sheet taper. So far so good, neither the US bond nor repo market hasn't crashed het like it did in September 2019 but another rip higher in US long dated treasuries might just be the spark that lights the kerosene-soaked rug which will force the Fed to step back into the bond market.
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
2