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US 10Y TREASURY: 4% will holdFor some time charts were pointing to a potential for US10Y to reach 4% level, which finally occurred during the previous week. Job figures released for June show that average hourly earnings continue to be increased, 0.4% m/m in June or 4.4% on a yearly basis, which might bring inflation further to the higher grounds, which will push FOMC to further increase interest rates. Market sentiment for an increase in July reached 92%, but whether the Fed will have the same perception is about to be seen as of the end of July, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 10Y Treasuries started the previous week around 3.8%, however, after released jobs data, yields jumped to the highest weekly level at 4.09%. Considering current sentiment, it could be expected for yields to continue to be elevated during the week ahead. At this moment, there is decreased potential that they might revert to the previous, 3.8% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Is it time to switch "treasures"?-The US government's 2-year bond is trying to form a new bullish pivot on the monthly chart. -I believe that it will not have enough strength to go further, that is, to break the pre SUBPRIME peak of 2008, in the region of 5,283, as inflation at the moment (short term) seems to want to cool down. -But long-term inflation, I'm sorry to say that you may not want to let your guard down, so 5 and 10 year bonds may reach new highs. -On the weekly chart we have an accumulation of prices, and the projection of this accumulation suggests the region of 5330 as a possible maximum destination for the prices of the 2-year bond. -The SETUP used also projects purchasing power up to the range of 5,338 according to the high pivot also shown by the SETUP used! -The daily chart already shows exhaustion, so you need to pull back on the long average just below if you really want to look for the 5,338 region. -Do your analysis and good business. -Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop! -See below for other graphic reviews!
TVC:US02Y
by MacD_Bollinger
US 10Y yield levels following the break of its 9-month dtrendDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
It might be the right time to buy 10 year TreasuriesI see a big opportunity on treasuries with the rates that the treasauries are trading at. Why? Inflation has been going down consistently from 9.1% to 4% and the PPI (which is the Producer Price Index) from 11.1% to 1.1%. These indicators usually draw near the core CPI which has been sticky above 5% and has been the aim for the FED. Rents and some services have been raised this year and are not going down or stabilizing 12 year compared until next year. There is a lag effect in the economy regarding the rate hikes of about 12 to 18 months and we are still to see many of the effects noting that they have been restrictive for just 9 months. Another nice data is the base, 12 month old prices. May and June are the top of the prices from last year due to the supply chain issues and the Russia Ucranie war. Oil went up to 130 dollar a barrel and most of commodities topped last year. So the CPI next week should be a 14 year high real yield high when a 3.2 to 3.5% print on the CPI should show more inflation loosening. Economy is stil in a tight spot, with a strong labor market which made the last rate decisión of the FED a prediction of two more rate hikes this year. Eventhough since then 2 voting members have seen the posible mistake of keep hiking and have said that they should still see the effects of the 500 rate increase and not hike more for at least this year. This alone should drive a big buy througout the curve. Economy is not that strong to see a 14 year high in real yield for a 10 year high with much analysts, including the FED are expecting at least a mild recesión. So rates are very high taking into account the análisis made. A 3.50% on the 10 year and a 4.30% on the 2 year are the aims. But the market has been frightened and selling due to the losses they took from anticipating this move too early. The recent debt limit helped a lot recently for those losses, but its an issue that has been dealt with. A frightened market ussually is an opportunity and I think this is one of them. We still need to see the other 7 memebers of the FED agree, but in an educated guess the next week CPI data must do the job.
TVC:US02YLong
by acrispino
1
No coincidences hereThis is a new type of experiment regarding the simulation of scenarios. I am bullish biased on this one because of the candlestick pattern on the Daily chart. Looking forward to see if there is any meaning to these drawings and their correlation with the future price action. Strategy and money management are key to success? The law of large numbers has its own story and puts everything in context. The context of probabilities and potentials. I am more interested in creating drawings that make sense after the future unfolds, exploring the computational potential of the unconscious brain activity, if it exists.
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by UnknownUnicorn903284
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS : TREASURY YIELDS VS DOLLARThe TVC:US10Y have taken out a major swing low and made some rally to the upside. ThoughI still expect more rally to come, which in my opinion, would eventually come If the TVC:US10Y rallies to the buyside Liquidity at rates of 4.089% and 4.335% respectively, then I am expecting the price of dollar to rally to the upside This analysis explanation would simply make me Bullish on TVC:DXY and bearish on all other asset classes
TVC:US10YLong
by ifeanyichukwu_E
3
20 Reasons for sell US30 years Yield 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1:✨Eagle eye: Since 1987, the market has been continuously declining, reaching its valid low in 2020 and confirming the lows in 2022. This is the first valid low in 35 years. 2:📆Monthly: The market is undergoing a change of character from bearish to bullish after 35 years. However, the high has not been confirmed yet. There is a high chance that the price will make a corrective move to confirm the highs. Over the last 8 months, the market has been in a sideways phase, forming an asymmetrical triangle pattern. It is most likely to break to the downside to complete the move and form a valid high. We can also observe significant demand in the same area. 3:📅Weekly: The overall trend is clear and upward without a valid high. The current market is in a full consolidation phase, creating three higher highs (H3) and almost three lower lows (L3) during the consolidation period, narrowing the price range. A breakout in either direction will confirm the next move, but the bias seems to be on the bearish side. Let's wait and see. 4:🕛Daily: A valid high has been formed with a proper valid low, and the third step has created a higher low (HL), indicating potential downside movements. 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: Daily 5: 1 Price Structure: Bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: More than 60% of sessions close to the downside, and all downward sessions show strong bearish closings. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has also formed. 7: 3 Volume: 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL RSI: Sideways for a long time. 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger Bands: We are experiencing a tight squeeze, indicating that all volatility has dried up. The squeeze breakout will play a major role in the coming days. Let's watch and wait for the breakout below the lower Bollinger Band for confirmation. 10: 6 Strength ADX: Sideways. 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: ✔️ Entry Time Frame: Daily 12: Entry TF Structure: Bullish 13: Entry Move: Corrective 14: Support Resistance Base: Monthly resistance trendline and daily resistance trendline. 15: FIB: Trigger event also activated. ☑️ Final comments: Sell at the squeeze breakout. 16: 💡Decision: Seeking a sell position. 17: 🚀Entry: 3.78 18: ✋Stop Loss: 4.07 19: 🎯Take Profit: 3.1 20: 😊Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3 🕛 Expected Duration: 30 days
TVC:US30YShort
by Optimum369
How to position for yield curve un-inversions!It has been some time since we delved into the intricate world of interest rates and their prospective trajectories. With the yield curve experiencing significant movement in recent weeks, it's high time we reassess our stance. Following a staggering 500 basis points increase, we now find ourselves potentially nearer to the end of the rate hike cycle than ever before. The recent hawkish pause announced in the last meeting has left market participants on tenterhooks, pondering the future course of action in the ongoing battle against inflation. Given the downward trend in inflation and the possibility of at least one more rate hike, 'real' yields have ascended beyond the 0% level, as depicted in the chart above. Since the 2010s, real yields have consistently struggled to surpass the 1.2% level. However, the recent lower inflation prints place the 'real' yield at a new decade high of 1.25%. So, how does the yield curve inversion behave during periods of real yields? Interestingly, in three of the past four instances, the curve 'un-inverted' once real yields exceeded 0. Of greater significance is the yield curve's response after the Fed cuts rates. Since 1989, this has been a key signal of the yield curve un-inversion. Given this event's proximity and the current 2Y-10Y yield curve, we contemplate the optimal strategy to capitalize on this likely un-inversion. One approach is to examine all possible inversion combinations between the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year yields. All these combinations present an inverted curve, except for the 10Y-30Y segment. Upon dissecting the analysis to focus solely on 2-year inversions, we observe the following: The 2-year inversion is generally the steepest, with the 2Y-10Y ranking as the most inverted segment of the yield curve. All inversions anchored with the 2Y are at their all-time highs, plunging us into uncharted waters. In contrast, the 5-year and 10-year yields exhibit more subdued movements. Their inversions have yet to reach all-time highs, and the overall range of movement is relatively restrained. Therefore, to maximize returns on the un-inversion move, one could position to short either the most inverted section of the curve, the 2Y-10Y, or the 2Y-30Y, which typically experiences the largest movement upon un-inversion. Handily, CME has the Micro Treasury Yield Futures, quoted in yield terms, which allows us to express this view in a straightforward manner allaying the complications with DV01 calculation. By creating a short yield spread position, we are not merely speculating on the direction of individual yields but rather on the relative movement between them. Trading the yield spread instead of just an outright position in a single part of the curve also protects us from parallel shifts in the yield curve, especially in volatile times like these. This strategy takes advantage of the yield curve dynamics, particularly the inversion trend we've been observing. We create the short yield spread position by taking a short position in the Micro 2-Yr Yield Futures and a long position in the Micro 10-Yr Yield Futures or Micro 30-Yr Yield Futures to express the curve un-inversion view, with 1 basis point move equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:US02YShort
by inspirante
US 10Y TREASURY: staying elevated The resilience of the US economy is evident in the latest posted economic figures. Both business and consumer sentiment is improving, while inflation, expressed through PCE continues to slow down. Still, the pending issue is what the FOMC will do at their meetings till the end of this year. As per Fed`s Chair Powell comments, two more rate increases should be expected. Whether that will actually occur, is to be seen till the end of this year, still, possibility of “soft landing” holds. The 10Y Treasury ended Friday`s trading by reaching a level of 3.89%. It seems that the market is anticipating further rate hikes which might stay for a longer period of time at higher levels. With this move, a new chapter on charts was opened, in which terms, a road toward the 4% is now open. This level might be tested in the coming period. As for the week ahead, 10Y yields will open at level of 3.90%. It could not be noted at this moment whether yields will go higher from this level. In case of a short reversal, 3.8% will be tested, with lower probability that yields might return to the 3.6% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VII - Where the bear?And so we have a clear break out of the SG10Y again. And based on previous inverse co-relationship, the US equities should be retracing in a down cycle. The thing is that for now, at least in the short interim, the US equities appear bullish and is likely to stretch further upwards. This co-relationship is either being tested or has been broken. For now, the opinion is with the former... and it might be telling of the incoming magnitude when the equities flip back down - hard(er). Observe and be ready...
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader