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Yield curve predicting Recession very soon.TVC:US10Y -US02Y Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure. Recession signals: 1. Unemployment starts to raise. 2. Yield curve is above 0. 3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences) Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting, we will see drawdown of almost all stocks. Be prepared to take this golden opportunity to make fortune or atleast protect your assets. Bear market or recessions are the best time for investment and long term growth as you get base prices and can make money by selling low risk calls. Hold your bulls and unleash when the time is almost right.
TVC:US10Y
by MarathonToMoon
1
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IVTime to review this weekly chart which appears to gain even more importance in giving the insights... Noted that the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields continued to drop, and broke down a support to close at a 9 month low. Also note that since tracking and projecting (the previous dotted green arrow), the path of the SPY (blue line) was on point and closed higher to the point of the green arrow, now made solid (instead of dotted). A new projection for a smaller uptick is projected, in line with the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields dropping to a lower low, as you can expect a little more downside on that. Conversely, the SPY should be pushing forward and upward a bit more, as projected by the green dotted arrow. Now, UNTIL the time where the SG10Y Govt Yield breaks over the yellow trendline, and changes trend, the SPY should not yet turn bearish. It will happen, just not now so wait for it... Again, this is in line with the USD decline, and the Combined US Indexes climbing a bit more. Another angle that aligns. Interesting.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
FOMC nothing to see hereFOMC has raised interest rates for 9 times in a row. The next Fed interest rate decision will be publicly announced on Wednesday 5/3/23 at 2pm. The market consensus is expecting FOMC to raise interest rates for the 10th time in a row. FOMC rate hikes: 3/16/22 +0.25% = 0.50% 5/4/22 +0.50% = 1.00% 6/15/22 +0.75% = 1.75% 7/27/22 +0.75% = 2.50% 9/21/22 +0.75% = 3.25% 11/2/22 +0.75% = 4.00% 12/14/22 +0.50% = 4.50% 2/1/23 +0.25% = 4.75% 3/22/23 +0.25% = 5.00% 5/3/23 +0.25% = 5.25% The collapses of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in the history of the United States. The collapse of Washington Mutual during the 2007–2008 financial crisis was the largest. On July 6th 2022, the 2s / 10s yield curve inverted, and it has widened its gap since then. An inversion of the 2-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession is likely to follow in one to two years.
TVC:US02Y
by Options360
2
Interest will go upInterest rates are likely to go up. FED will remain focused on controlling inflation. Job losses we are seeing are not enough to stop FED action, as FED believes these are not numerous enough to impact economy. FED also doesn't believe recent bank issues are a contagion. This idea is an expression that interest rates will go up, therefore best play is to go long "interest rate" in whatever way you can, through interest rate swaps or whatever. Assume interest rate rise
TVC:US10Y
by iequalss
US 10 Year Yield On The Cusp of Breaking DownThe 10 Year Yield has been trying to hold this B point level as Support for the longest time but everytime it tries to bounce it gets pushed right back down and in the most recent try we saw it come up to test the moving averages while it Bearishly Diverged and began a Death Cross. If we can get a serious BAMM Breakdown from here it coulkd go down all the way to 1.4% which would likely coincide with a huge decline in the DXY and a rise in the stock market.
TVC:US10YShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Analyzing Inflation: COVID-19, Energy, Conflict & LaborInflation, a critical financial and economic indicator, has been significantly impacted by various factors in recent years. This article delves into the influence of COVID-19, changes in work patterns, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war on inflation, presenting a comprehensive analysis of our present financial landscape. COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Recipe for Inflation The global pandemic, COVID-19, significantly disrupted supply chains worldwide. With a combination of limited supply and robust or surging demand, the result was inevitable - a price increase, a key driver of inflation. Rising costs of materials, labor, energy, and transportation, all amplified by the pandemic, made goods more expensive to manufacture and transport, further contributing to inflation. The aftermath of these disruptions led to a ripple effect: a rise in supply chain costs. Consumers facing higher prices found themselves with reduced disposable income, which could, in theory, lower demand. However, the essential nature of many goods affected by these disruptions likely negated this potential offset, fueling inflation further. In the long run, these disruptions could lead to persistent inflation. The pandemic has exposed the fragility of 'just-in-time' inventories and the impact of underinvestment in global commodity supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures. Consequently, inflation may become a more permanent fixture, disrupting business planning and forecasting and adding another layer of complexity to the economic environment. Labor Market Shifts: From Crisis to Recovery The pandemic has considerably affected the labor market, resulting in significant shifts and shortages across various sectors. The initial outbreak led to severe job losses, with the global unemployment rate peaking at 13%. However, as economies start to reopen, we're seeing an interesting trend: people voluntarily leave their roles, even as worker demand increases. This labor shortage, induced by changing demographics, border controls, immigration limits, and the call for better pay and flexible work arrangements, presents another challenge in our economic landscape. Furthermore, the acceleration of digitalization and the gig economy could have enduring effects on labor supply and productivity. The crisis has potentially long-term implications, like automation's role in slowing the employment recovery in service occupations. Remote Work: A Double-Edged Sword The rise of remote work, while offering significant societal and economic benefits, also carries potential inflationary effects. Increased demand for houses/apartments, home office equipment, utilities, and other home-centric products and services has led to price hikes, accelerating inflation. Moreover, while remote work has the potential to boost productivity and create new job opportunities, it also brings challenges. Difficulties in collaboration, communication hurdles, and blurred work-life boundaries could negatively impact productivity, painting a more complex picture of remote work's overall effect on productivity and inflation. Energy Decisions: A Balancing Act The decision to reduce investments in nuclear energy and fossil fuels can influence inflation and the overall energy market. A decline in energy production can lead to price increases due to supply-demand imbalances, contributing to inflation. Moreover, reduced domestic energy production may increase dependence on imported energy, which, if more expensive or if international energy prices rise, could also lead to inflation. Transitioning to green energy without adequate investment and planning could lead to shortages and disruptions, driving up energy prices and contributing to inflation. While renewable energy technologies are advancing rapidly, they cannot fully replace the capacity provided by nuclear and fossil fuels in many countries. This could lead to energy shortages and price increases, particularly if the transition to green energy outpaces the technology's readiness. The variability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, presents another challenge. Without adequate energy storage and grid infrastructure investment to manage this variability, energy supply disruptions and price spikes could become more common. Moreover, a rapid transition to green energy could displace existing energy jobs before adequate green energy jobs are created. This could lead to economic instability and potentially contribute to inflation. While the long-term costs of renewable energy can be lower than fossil fuels, the initial investment required to build renewable energy infrastructure can be high. Higher energy prices can pass these costs to consumers, contributing to inflation. In conclusion, while the transition to green energy is crucial for addressing climate change, this transition must be well-planned and well-managed. Policymakers must strike a careful balance between the urgency of climate action and the need to maintain energy security and economic stability. The Russia-Ukraine War: Geopolitical Inflation The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also played a role in driving inflation. The war has disrupted the supply of essential commodities such as oil, gas, metals, wheat, and corn, pushing their prices upwards. These nations are major suppliers of these commodities, and their reduced supplies have led to sharp price increases worldwide. Furthermore, the conflict has exacerbated global supply chain disruptions, already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to heightened inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers. Additionally, the war has significantly increased oil and gas prices, particularly in Europe, directly impacting inflation and household spending. The war has also weakened global economic confidence, further fueling inflationary pressures. Countries already grappling with financial challenges, such as Lebanon and Zimbabwe, have been severely impacted by the inflationary effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Overall, the conflict is estimated to add about 2% to global inflation in 2022 and 1% in 2023, compared to pre-war forecasts. Conclusion In conclusion, the dynamic interplay of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly influenced inflation. Policymakers, economists, and businesses must navigate this complex landscape to develop effective strategies that mitigate inflationary pressures while promoting sustainable economic growth. As we move forward, we must continue to monitor these factors to understand their ongoing effects on inflation and the broader economy.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
Key short term levels to watch on the US 10Y yieldUS GDP Q1 GDP figures were released yesterday and showed a significantly slower rate of growth that expected, printing an overall figure of 1.1% Q1 growth. The problem facing investors is that economic data suggests that inflation could remain sticky and the central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week. So we are taking a look at the US 10Y yield chart to identify the key levels that you need to watch short term. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
4-27-23 [us10y]hello, here is one more layer of confluence, to back up my spx case. --- to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop, but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3. what is a 3-3-3? glad you ask anon: a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure, designed to kill time mostly- labeled w-x-y. wxy = double zig-zag these channel nicely, as portrayed in the image above. --- once this double zig-zag concludes into the summer time, i predict the stock market will crash. --- enjoy it till then, and as always --- this is not financial advice, i am merely an artist, bringing to you, art.
TVC:US10Y
by Eloquent
US10Y: Last dip before a medium term reboundThe US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down ever since its market peak on October 21st. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 54.601, MACD = 0.300, ADX = 17.030) giving a mixed tone to the price action but based on the December-January Lows we can see the the Channel Down has one last dip to make before it bottoms and rebounds on the medium term. We will wait for that pullback around 3.250 and buy targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 3.750). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
1
5-year US Treasury Yield Working with Long-Term and Medium-Term In the previous Weekly Market Insight, I directed the technical spotlight to a long-term harmonic equivalent AB=CD bullish structure on the 5-year US Treasury yield weekly chart in a market trending higher since August 2020. The AB=CD zone, as you can see, has offered this market a technical floor since mid-March, denoted by the 100% projection at 3.243%. What’s interesting, though, is on the daily timeframe we can see that the reaction from the weekly AB=CD floor has carved out a daily equivalent AB=CD bearish pattern at 3.757%. This, coupled with Wednesday’s bearish Shooting Star candle pattern and nearby dynamic resistance derived from the 200-day simple moving average at 3.700%, could be enough to motivate a downside move this week to test at least the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios (derived from legs A-D) at 3.558% and 3.437%, respectively.
TVC:US05YShort
by Aaron-Hill