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Government bonds

US10Y - US02Y : Lesson from 2008Not long ago, it was inverted by more than 100bps. Today, the inversion is about 40bps. As we all know, once it emerges from inversion, i.e. un-inverted, that is when we start counting to the next RECESSION. On average, it is 4 months. You can see it in the above chart. FED will soon cut rates. Once un-inversion occurs, market will again do an adjustment/re-pricing exercise to all assets. As you may already know now, the FED says there is NO RATE CUT this year. In fact, there is a possibility that there is one more +25bps to go. But you should know the market reaction by NOW. The market is signaling that the FED is done with rate hikes. You can see it in the Fed Fund Futures. In fact, market is now expecting a rate CUT in the next FOMC!!! and with more to come. So now we wait for the un-inversion to occur. I think it is coming soon. Also note that DXY is much higher than compared to 2008, meaning there is a BIG possibility that there is much more to FALL??? And possibility that DXY will continue to FALL until when the market sense that the FED is done with rate hikes. Once the EFFR touches 0.00%, that is when the DXY will start rising again. Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
TVC:US10Y
by i_am_siew
1
2 yr yield risingBanks reported profits, bank fears are gone, yields rising, lol. Aside from my index futures indicators (which predicted a red day anyways), rising yields are causing the market to drop. The whole pump this week was about "disinflation", but yields were down on bank fears so now the reverse play, lol. Gold and cryptos down along with everything besides financials, lol. Makes sense if you think about it, but not something I would have predicted. These bond yield adjustments usually take a couple of days, so bearish for Monday
TVC:US02Y
by hungry_hippo
us10y 4-14-23gm, called the top on the us10y last year as well. (view post at the bottom of this thread). swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries. --- jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time. what this tells me, is they're expecting inflation to tick back up - or they're taking the extra precautions to ensure that this indeed doesn't take place. --- what i am implying here in my count - is an extension to 5.9% (at the bare minimum). this could mark a top, unless we pull back in three waves (the same we did from the recent top). 👇
TVC:US10Y
by Eloquent
2
German Bund 10y going towards 3%I think the current buoyancy on long duration eu core gov bonds is deceptive. rates in europe are way to low due to current macro environment, inflation still high, prices of gas and oil sets for higher levels in coming months ECB still in hawkish mode. rsi is also on the rise above its mean. probably this development will require 2 steps for the yield to reach 3% level. first stop is 2.55% / 2.6% that is a strong resistance so, some form of consolidation, then a breakout to 3%
TVC:DE10Y
by johnconnor81