Dark times are coming...
- TVC:US10Y is showing significant strength on all major timeframes.
- The EMA's on the monthly timeframe broke bullish after 12,000 days (Last seen 1962).
- If the US10YR breaks the 50% price retracement, we could see between 7.25% - 15%. (Last seen 1981)
The markets are in a scary place right now. This bear market may be extended due to many factors were dealing with in 2023 (War, Virus, Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Upcoming election, etc...).
Maybe a crash is what's needed to reset all of this chaos?
Government bonds
US10Y divergence suggesting "Sucker Rally" aheadDuring market crashes yields plummet along with equities in flight for safety and also they tend to lead in the decline. But here as we see 10-year yield divergence is suggesting equities can retest ATH once more before the crash. This also aligns with previous market behavior where equities rally on rate pause leading to recession - a "Sucker Rally" essentially.
Yields Spread Market Crash AstrologyYield spreads tighten and also invert leading into a recession and it is only once they start to de-invert that any sizable decline begins once all the durations have been squeezed and there is nowhere else to run/hide for market participants. The 10Y-03M curve is of particular interest compared to 10Y-02Y, which almost always leads to a crash once that cuts above 0.
Current widened spreads suggest there is still time for any black swan event to realize. I would expect long duration to rally in the next 2-3 months to narrow the spread around ~5% range, this can occur with help from TGA refill that's occurring until the end of September. Once at the end of the fall, I think we will see trouble brewing in markets from high rates and short liquidity.
Net-net, equities, and all risk assets can float around until late August/September before any major decline can transpire.
US10YHey folks i do hope everything is going well around you ......lets ckeck us10y chart as of now we are seeing bear flag on DXY and double top in us10y bond and bullish flag on Gold chart....based on these all things i conclude we can dare to expect devaluation in Dollar in midterm and increasing price in gold and commodities...... more over please consider we are getting close to election year day by day , and us goverment needs strong economy in election debates.....
GOOOOOOD LUUUUUUCK
US Government Bonds 30YR Yeld (US30Y)Supply Shocks are event that tends to increase prices and at the same time slow down economic growth, making production more expensive and less profitable. Paul Volker raised rates from 11% to 21.5% in two years. Today the rate increase went from 0.25% to 4.40%.
Which of the two target will be achieved?
US 10Y TREASURY: reversal is still pendingThe market uncertainty of the future course of inflation and FED`s next moves continued during the previous week, especially after the news that Saudi Arabia will continue with its decreased supply of oil by 1 million barrels per month until the end of this year. The price of oil surged on this news, putting the markets back on the negative sentiment. However, Treasury yields did not make a significant reaction to this news, as investors will probably need some more time to digest potential next Fed's move. The 10Y Treasury yields started the week around 4.18% and went back to the level of 4.30%, without a strength to break this level. They are ending the week around 4.26%.
Current charts are pointing that there is time for further relaxation in the 10Y Treasury yields. In this sense, the level of 4.0% is still pending to be tested. During the week ahead yields might again revert back toward the levels from the beginning of the week, around 4.2%, with some probability that 4.10% might be reached. A move toward the upside, in terms of 4.30% is unlikely at this moment, at least based on the charts.
US 10 Year Bond ready for downward moveFor all trade on my Auto Harmonic patterns indicator trade setup -
Risky trades can take trade after crossing 23.6% on either side and safe traders can take trade after 41% We can start buying when our Trailing SL hit at 23.6% with SL of recent low our Target will be 41%, 78.6% , 127.2% 161.8% and 223.6 % , when reversal pattern appears on chart we have to trail our SL if trailing SL hit exit from long trade and initiate sell trade ,
2 Year Bond Yield Up By +0.85%
-Bonds offset volatility for equity prices
-Even though Bonds Are An Inflation Risk
-Bonds Are Also At Risk Of Interest Rate
TVC:US30Y are budget friendly even though they offer low returns
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Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice please do your own research
Buy the 10 years sometime soon?for the two year to drop rapidly ( BY Powell) there would have to be a black swan event: WW3 GF
When the 2 year crosses the 10 year that´s when you need to be paying attention as the market has gone risk off!
In times of crisis good to own the 10 year assuming the FED drops rates, Long end rates may go higher maybe 6-7%, but the opportunity will be fleeting and painful..
but eventually it could be worth the pain as the FED then cuts and equities drop.