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US10Y - Watch out for speculative short coveringKey Takeaways: - Large speculators are the most short they have been since 2018 (around -730k contracts) - In 2018 they started to short cover (or buy back their short position) and US10-Year Treasury Yield started to drop. - This could happen again so need to watch out. Data: US10Y : US10-Year Treasury Yield COT:043602_F_NCP_L-COT:043602_F_NCP_S : US10-Year Treasury Note Net Futures Positioning by Large Speculators. From CME's Commitment of Traders Report. Calculated by taking total long position minus total short position.
TVC:US10YShort
by joshdawe21
Navigating The American Debt Ceiling DramaSome people create their own storms. And then get upset when it starts to rain. US Debt Ceiling drama is akin to a soap opera that never ends. Debt ceiling issue is not new. Why bother now? Political polarisation in the US has got to unprecedented levels. The showmanship could tip over into a political nightmare. It could send economic shockwaves with impact deeply felt both within US and well beyond its shores. Many politicians seemingly are so pulled away from reality that their fantasies aren’t working. Wishing away a problem out of its existence is not a solution. The Debt Ceiling is here. US defaulting on its debt is highly unlikely. Scarily though, the probability of that occurrence is non-zero. This paper looks at recent financial history surrounding prior debt ceiling episodes. Crucially, it delves into investor behaviour and their corresponding investment decisions across various asset classes. When uncertainty looms large, straddles and spreads arguably deliver optimal hedging and investment outcomes. A SHORT HISTORY OF DEBT CEILING. WHAT IS IT? HAS IT BEEN BREACHED BEFORE? The US debt ceiling is a maximum cap set by the Congress on the debt level that can be issued by the US Treasury to fund US Government spending. The ceiling was first introduced in 1917 to give US Treasury more flexibility to borrow money to fund first world war. When the US government spends more money than it brings in through taxes and revenues, the US Treasury issues bonds to make up the deficit. The net treasury bond issuance is the US national debt. Last year, the US Government spent USD 6.27 trillion while only collecting USD 4.9 trillion in revenue. This resulted in a deficit of “only” USD 1.38 trillion which had to be financed through US treasury bond issuance. This deficit was not an exception. In fact, that’s the norm. The US Government can afford to and has been a profligate borrower. It has run a deficit each year since 2001. In fact, it has had budget surplus ONLY five (5) times in the last fifty (50) years. If that wasn’t enough, the deficit ballooned drastically from under USD 1 trillion in 2019 to more than USD 3.1 trillion in 2020 and USD 2.7 trillion in 2021 thanks to massive pandemic stimulus programs and tax deferrals. This pushed the total US national debt to a staggering USD 31.46 trillion, higher than the debt ceiling of USD 31.4 trillion. The limit was breached! So, what happened when the ceiling was broken? Not that much actually. When the ceiling is broken into, the US Congress must pass legislation to raise or suspend the ceiling. Congress has raised the ceiling not once but 78 times since 1970. The decision is usually cross-partisan as the ceiling has been raised under both Republicans and Democrats. It was last raised in 2021 by USD 2.5 trillion to its current level. Where consensus over raising the ceiling cannot be reached, Congress can also choose to suspend the ceiling as a temporary measure. This was last done from 2019 to 2021. Since January, the Treasury has had to rely on the Treasury General Account and extraordinary measures to keep the country functioning. Cash balance at the Treasury remains precariously low. Its operating balance stood close to nearly USD 1 trillion last April but now hovers around USD 200 billion. Such reckless borrowing! Yet US continues to remain profligate. How? Global investors have confidence in the US Government's ability to service its debt. Despite the increasing debt, the US Government continues to pay investors interest on its bonds without a miss. Strong economic growth and its role as a global economic powerhouse assuages investor concerns over a potential default. Additionally, where Treasury does not have adequate operating cash flow, it leans on a credit line from the Federal Reserve (“Fed”). The dollar’s strength and reserve status contribute to the US Government’s creditworthiness and vice-versa. The Fed is also the largest holder of US government debt. It holds USD 6.1 trillion as of September 2022 (20% of the overall debt). The share of government debt held by the Fed surged to current levels from just above 10% during the pandemic due to massive purchases of treasury bills by the Fed as an emergency stimulus measure. GROWING US DEBT IS BECOMING A SOURCE OF CONCERN US debt has ballooned during the pandemic. It is deeply concerning for multiple reasons. Key among them is the risk of default. Although debt has increased significantly, GDP growth during this period has been tepid due to pandemic restrictions stifling economic activity. As such the ratio of national debt to GDP, a measure of the US’s ability to pay back its loan has also skyrocketed. This increases the risk that the US Government may fail to service its debt. A US Government default would lead to surging yields on treasury bonds and crashing stock prices. It would also call into question its creditworthiness limiting future borrowing potential. A default will also have far-reaching economic consequences threatening dollar hegemony which is already being challenged on multiple fronts. Another concern is the rising cost of servicing the debt. Servicing the debt is the single largest government expense. Interest payments on debt this year are expected to reach USD 357.1 billion or 6.8% of all government expenditure. Additionally, with the Fed having raised interest rates with no stated intention of pivoting in 2023, the interest rate on US public debt, which is currently at historical lows, will also rise. DEBT CEILING BREACH AGAIN. SO WHAT? LOOKING BACK IN TIME FOR ANSWERS. There has been more than one occasion when political disagreements resulted in Congress delaying the raising of the debt limit. In 2011, political disagreements pushed the government to the brink of default. The ceiling was raised just two (2) days before the estimated default deadline (the “X-date”). Despite the raise, S&P lowered its credit rating for the United States from AAA to AA+ reflecting the effects that political disagreements were having on the country’s creditworthiness. This played out again in 2013 due to same political disagreements. Thankfully, for investors, the effects of the 2013 crisis on financial markets were not as severe. Flash back. Equity markets initially dropped after the debt ceiling was reached and investors worried that the disagreements would not be resolved in time. In July 2011, markets started to recover as both parties started to work on deficit reduction proposals. Then on July 25th, just eight (8) days before the borrowing authority of the US would be exhausted, Credit Default Swaps on US debt spiked and the CDS curve inverted as participants feared that a deal would not be reached in time. This led equities sharply lower. On August 2nd, a bill raising the ceiling was rushed through both the House and the Senate. Following this S&P lowered US credit rating from AAA to AA+ citing uncontrolled debt growth. Equity prices continued to drop even after the passage of the bill. Commodities showed similar price behaviour heading into the passage of the bill. However, unlike stocks, gold and silver prices rallied after August 2nd. The USD weakened against other currencies before the passing of the bill but recovered after August 2nd. Treasury yields trended lower but spiked during key events during this period. Short-term treasury yields remained highly volatile. Following crisis resolution, yields plunged sharply. US DEBT CEILING CRISIS AGAIN. WHAT NOW IN 2023? The US reached its debt ceiling again in January 2023 and yet another debt crisis. 2013 is repeating itself again as lawmakers disagree over whether to raise the ceiling further or bring the budget under control. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a non-partisan organization, has estimated that the US could be at a risk of default as early as June 1st. Republicans disagree with the Biden administration. They seek budget cuts to reduce annual deficits while Democrats want the ceiling to be raised without any conditions tied to it. This crisis is exacerbated by rising political polarisation in the US. Not just metamorphically, the Republicans and Democrats are at each other’s throat. A study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found that no established democracy in the recent past has been as polarised as the US is today. This raises the risk that Congress gets into a stalemate. Moreover, the house is only in session for 12 days in May. After the law is passed in Congress it must also pass through the Senate and the President. The availability of all three overlap on just seven (7) days, the last of which is the 17th of May. This means that lawmakers have just 3 days (from May 12th) to reconcile their differences before the US is put at risk of default. POSITIONING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS IN DEBT CRISIS WITH X-DATE IN SIGHT What’s X-date? It refers to the date on which the US Government would have exhausted all its options except debt default. The X-date could arrive as early as June 1st. There is a small chance that it could arrive in late July or early August. The US Government collects tax receipts in mid-June. If the US Treasury can stretch until then it will have enough cash to last another six weeks before knocking against the debt ceiling again. The current crisis has been brewing. Equity markets remain sanguine. But near-term treasury yields have started panicking. Short term yields have spiked. The difference in yield on Treasury Bills that mature before the likely X-date (23/May) & after it (13/June) has shot up. Muted equity markets create compelling opportunity for short sellers. In the same vein, it also presents buying opportunities when debt ceiling is eventually lifted. When up or down is near impossible to predict, an astutely crafted straddle or time spread can save the day. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
TVC:US01MY
by mintdotfinance
27
NO MORE MONEY?Rates on short-dated bills have soared ahead of the so-called ‘X-date’ early next month, after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned last week that the government could run out of cash as soon as June 1. It's worth noting that the debt ceiling issue has arisen multiple times over the years, and each time it has ultimately been resolved. While it's impossible to predict the outcome of the current situation, historical precedent suggests that it is likely to be resolved eventually. For investors with a high risk tolerance, buying short-term T-bills now could be a smart move that provides a higher rate of return than longer-term Treasury bonds. One notable example of a similar situation occurred in 2011, when the US government faced a potential default due to a political standoff over raising the debt ceiling. The prospect of a default caused investors to fear that the government would not be able to meet its financial obligations, leading to a rise in short-term interest rates. In the weeks leading up to the deadline, yields on one-month T-bills increased from around 0.02% to over 0.25%, while yields on three-month and six-month T-bills also rose significantly. However, once the debt ceiling was eventually raised, the yields on these short-term Treasuries returned to more typical levels. Investors who had bought short-term Treasuries during this period would have seen a significant increase in yield, providing a lucrative opportunity. Similarly, the current debt ceiling issue could present a similar opportunity for investors who are willing to take on the associated risk.
TVC:US10Y
by optionsswing
Yield curve predicting Recession very soon.TVC:US10Y -US02Y Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure. Recession signals: 1. Unemployment starts to raise. 2. Yield curve is above 0. 3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences) Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting, we will see drawdown of almost all stocks. Be prepared to take this golden opportunity to make fortune or atleast protect your assets. Bear market or recessions are the best time for investment and long term growth as you get base prices and can make money by selling low risk calls. Hold your bulls and unleash when the time is almost right.
TVC:US10Y
by MarathonToMoon
1
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IVTime to review this weekly chart which appears to gain even more importance in giving the insights... Noted that the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields continued to drop, and broke down a support to close at a 9 month low. Also note that since tracking and projecting (the previous dotted green arrow), the path of the SPY (blue line) was on point and closed higher to the point of the green arrow, now made solid (instead of dotted). A new projection for a smaller uptick is projected, in line with the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields dropping to a lower low, as you can expect a little more downside on that. Conversely, the SPY should be pushing forward and upward a bit more, as projected by the green dotted arrow. Now, UNTIL the time where the SG10Y Govt Yield breaks over the yellow trendline, and changes trend, the SPY should not yet turn bearish. It will happen, just not now so wait for it... Again, this is in line with the USD decline, and the Combined US Indexes climbing a bit more. Another angle that aligns. Interesting.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
FOMC nothing to see hereFOMC has raised interest rates for 9 times in a row. The next Fed interest rate decision will be publicly announced on Wednesday 5/3/23 at 2pm. The market consensus is expecting FOMC to raise interest rates for the 10th time in a row. FOMC rate hikes: 3/16/22 +0.25% = 0.50% 5/4/22 +0.50% = 1.00% 6/15/22 +0.75% = 1.75% 7/27/22 +0.75% = 2.50% 9/21/22 +0.75% = 3.25% 11/2/22 +0.75% = 4.00% 12/14/22 +0.50% = 4.50% 2/1/23 +0.25% = 4.75% 3/22/23 +0.25% = 5.00% 5/3/23 +0.25% = 5.25% The collapses of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in the history of the United States. The collapse of Washington Mutual during the 2007–2008 financial crisis was the largest. On July 6th 2022, the 2s / 10s yield curve inverted, and it has widened its gap since then. An inversion of the 2-year, 10-year part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession is likely to follow in one to two years.
TVC:US02Y
by Options360
2
Interest will go upInterest rates are likely to go up. FED will remain focused on controlling inflation. Job losses we are seeing are not enough to stop FED action, as FED believes these are not numerous enough to impact economy. FED also doesn't believe recent bank issues are a contagion. This idea is an expression that interest rates will go up, therefore best play is to go long "interest rate" in whatever way you can, through interest rate swaps or whatever. Assume interest rate rise
TVC:US10Y
by iequalss
US 10 Year Yield On The Cusp of Breaking DownThe 10 Year Yield has been trying to hold this B point level as Support for the longest time but everytime it tries to bounce it gets pushed right back down and in the most recent try we saw it come up to test the moving averages while it Bearishly Diverged and began a Death Cross. If we can get a serious BAMM Breakdown from here it coulkd go down all the way to 1.4% which would likely coincide with a huge decline in the DXY and a rise in the stock market.
TVC:US10YShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Analyzing Inflation: COVID-19, Energy, Conflict & LaborInflation, a critical financial and economic indicator, has been significantly impacted by various factors in recent years. This article delves into the influence of COVID-19, changes in work patterns, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war on inflation, presenting a comprehensive analysis of our present financial landscape. COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Recipe for Inflation The global pandemic, COVID-19, significantly disrupted supply chains worldwide. With a combination of limited supply and robust or surging demand, the result was inevitable - a price increase, a key driver of inflation. Rising costs of materials, labor, energy, and transportation, all amplified by the pandemic, made goods more expensive to manufacture and transport, further contributing to inflation. The aftermath of these disruptions led to a ripple effect: a rise in supply chain costs. Consumers facing higher prices found themselves with reduced disposable income, which could, in theory, lower demand. However, the essential nature of many goods affected by these disruptions likely negated this potential offset, fueling inflation further. In the long run, these disruptions could lead to persistent inflation. The pandemic has exposed the fragility of 'just-in-time' inventories and the impact of underinvestment in global commodity supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures. Consequently, inflation may become a more permanent fixture, disrupting business planning and forecasting and adding another layer of complexity to the economic environment. Labor Market Shifts: From Crisis to Recovery The pandemic has considerably affected the labor market, resulting in significant shifts and shortages across various sectors. The initial outbreak led to severe job losses, with the global unemployment rate peaking at 13%. However, as economies start to reopen, we're seeing an interesting trend: people voluntarily leave their roles, even as worker demand increases. This labor shortage, induced by changing demographics, border controls, immigration limits, and the call for better pay and flexible work arrangements, presents another challenge in our economic landscape. Furthermore, the acceleration of digitalization and the gig economy could have enduring effects on labor supply and productivity. The crisis has potentially long-term implications, like automation's role in slowing the employment recovery in service occupations. Remote Work: A Double-Edged Sword The rise of remote work, while offering significant societal and economic benefits, also carries potential inflationary effects. Increased demand for houses/apartments, home office equipment, utilities, and other home-centric products and services has led to price hikes, accelerating inflation. Moreover, while remote work has the potential to boost productivity and create new job opportunities, it also brings challenges. Difficulties in collaboration, communication hurdles, and blurred work-life boundaries could negatively impact productivity, painting a more complex picture of remote work's overall effect on productivity and inflation. Energy Decisions: A Balancing Act The decision to reduce investments in nuclear energy and fossil fuels can influence inflation and the overall energy market. A decline in energy production can lead to price increases due to supply-demand imbalances, contributing to inflation. Moreover, reduced domestic energy production may increase dependence on imported energy, which, if more expensive or if international energy prices rise, could also lead to inflation. Transitioning to green energy without adequate investment and planning could lead to shortages and disruptions, driving up energy prices and contributing to inflation. While renewable energy technologies are advancing rapidly, they cannot fully replace the capacity provided by nuclear and fossil fuels in many countries. This could lead to energy shortages and price increases, particularly if the transition to green energy outpaces the technology's readiness. The variability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, presents another challenge. Without adequate energy storage and grid infrastructure investment to manage this variability, energy supply disruptions and price spikes could become more common. Moreover, a rapid transition to green energy could displace existing energy jobs before adequate green energy jobs are created. This could lead to economic instability and potentially contribute to inflation. While the long-term costs of renewable energy can be lower than fossil fuels, the initial investment required to build renewable energy infrastructure can be high. Higher energy prices can pass these costs to consumers, contributing to inflation. In conclusion, while the transition to green energy is crucial for addressing climate change, this transition must be well-planned and well-managed. Policymakers must strike a careful balance between the urgency of climate action and the need to maintain energy security and economic stability. The Russia-Ukraine War: Geopolitical Inflation The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also played a role in driving inflation. The war has disrupted the supply of essential commodities such as oil, gas, metals, wheat, and corn, pushing their prices upwards. These nations are major suppliers of these commodities, and their reduced supplies have led to sharp price increases worldwide. Furthermore, the conflict has exacerbated global supply chain disruptions, already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to heightened inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers. Additionally, the war has significantly increased oil and gas prices, particularly in Europe, directly impacting inflation and household spending. The war has also weakened global economic confidence, further fueling inflationary pressures. Countries already grappling with financial challenges, such as Lebanon and Zimbabwe, have been severely impacted by the inflationary effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Overall, the conflict is estimated to add about 2% to global inflation in 2022 and 1% in 2023, compared to pre-war forecasts. Conclusion In conclusion, the dynamic interplay of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly influenced inflation. Policymakers, economists, and businesses must navigate this complex landscape to develop effective strategies that mitigate inflationary pressures while promoting sustainable economic growth. As we move forward, we must continue to monitor these factors to understand their ongoing effects on inflation and the broader economy.
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro