#us30y #bonds #yields #dxy #elliottwave short welcome bullsThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Government bonds
US BONDS 10 YEARS YIELD (daily)As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.
US bonds 10 years yield As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.
The DXY and Yields are Set up to Make a Midday ReversalThe DXY and the 30 Year Yield have been on the decline for most of the day but are now showing signs of reversing back up at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat and a Bullish Shark in the form of MACD Bullish Divergence and PPO Confirmation, respectively.
When these two start to rise again it is very likely that the QQQ start to continue down as it is trading at the PCZ of a Bearish Deep Crab and has formed Potential MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence and if it starts to go down it will also give us Bearish PPO Confirmation which from there may result in a fast move down to make a lower low.
All of this will likely be triggered by whatever the Fed has to say today.
Inverted Yield US10Y-US02Y==Late 1970s to Early 1980s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted several times between the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Economic Outcome: The U.S. experienced two recessions during this period: one in 1980 and another in 1981-1982.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experiencing declines during these recessions.
==Late 1980s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 1988 and early 1989.
Economic Outcome: This inversion was followed by a mild recession in 1990.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a downturn in 1990, with the DJIA dropping by around 20%.
==Late 1990s to Early 2000s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in 2000.
Economic Outcome: The U.S. entered a recession in 2001, partly due to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market began a decline in 2000, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index dropping significantly due to the collapse of many internet-based companies.
==2006-2007:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 2006 and remained inverted into 2007.
Economic Outcome: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, triggered by a housing market crash and subsequent financial crisis.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market experienced a significant decline, with the DJIA losing more than 50% of its value from its peak in 2007 to its trough in 2009.
==2019:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in August 2019.
Economic Outcome: While many analysts were concerned about a potential recession, the U.S. economy remained resilient in 2019 and early 2020. However, the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a global economic downturn.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a sharp decline in early 2020 due to the pandemic, with the DJIA dropping by over 30% in a matter of weeks.
It's essential to note that while the inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the past, the exact timing between the inversion and the onset of a recession can vary. Additionally, other factors, such as global events, fiscal policies, and technological shifts, can also play significant roles in economic outcomes.
2 year yield keeps pushing higherThe final exhaustive push higher in a subwave -c- of wave -v- up quite often comes as a strong rally resembling the heart of the rally in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up.
Why we expect EURUSD SPX to keep falling.Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further.
Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes.
The particular dynamics of each does not ensure a day to day follow up, however, eventually they do catch up.
Thank you very much for your time. Critics and suggestions are welcome.
Best regards.
US 10 Year Yield - hitting resistanceYields Surging on the long end. Hitting resistance.
Will this level hold and give the equity markets a breather to bounce?
If this continues to surge you will see a massive selloff in equities at some point as the bond market is pricing in entrenched inflation.
US05Y-EU05Y EURUSD, just went long $FXEMy two most recent posts were identifying a potential upcoming trade idea behind Euro bouncing back vs. USD soon, the chart today has made it looked more prime for reversal, finding ever increasing support, and slightly weakening 5 year yields in both Euro and U.S.. The difference between the two looks like it may start to contract a little in the coming weeks as well, which should send Euro higher.
As a slight update to my previous post linked at the bottom, I've updated that chart to include the EU05Y and US05Y yields on the same scale, and the difference between the two (US05Y-EU05Y) on a different scale on the left. It gives a little more complete picture that may help pick out the longer term trend shifts.
Zoomed in some on just the EURUSD, seeing how it's seemingly bottomed out, finding support here, and attempted a sharp rally this morning that was equally sharply rejected, but seems like this it's found support again and the trend for the coming weeks may well be a reversal to the upside for the Euro.
On the 5 year bonds side of things, both have set slightly lower highs than last week, with there being a bigger drop for the US 5 year than the Euro. Possible we're seeing a slow down of those yields going higher, with the US possibly losing a little more yield than the Euro. Seems prime for a reversal after more than a month and a half of the Euro sliding.
With that in mind, I did go long some AMEX:FXE 20 Oct 23 101 strike calls this morning. A little risky and out of the money with some time left, but if this rallies as I hope it will, the payoff should be pretty nice. Trading price at the time of trade was about $98.81. Ask side was 0.30. Contracts in the money at the moment trade for more than 1.00.
us Treasury yields with 30 year mortgagesimple chart if someone needs it for us treasuries and also added in the 30 year fixed avg mortgage. nice chart to track yields moving
Long position US10YHi traders! 👋
Let's take a look at US 10 year bond yields. It's has been in an up trend for half a year now. We expect it to continue to the upside. Right now the price is testing the resistance line. We expect the price to come back to the historically strong support zone and bounce back upwards if it can hold the price. The target zone will be at the upper resistance line.
What do you think about this idea? Let us know in the comments!
US10YHi everybody start your shorting on us 10 y bond yield seriously but liitle by little .....big major resistance above that area .....enjoy this trade ....
Gooood Luuuuck
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50.
Prior idea:
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#dxy $dxy #elliottwave US 3 months yield ⬇️This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
