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Government bonds

US05Y-EU05Y EURUSD, just went long $FXEMy two most recent posts were identifying a potential upcoming trade idea behind Euro bouncing back vs. USD soon, the chart today has made it looked more prime for reversal, finding ever increasing support, and slightly weakening 5 year yields in both Euro and U.S.. The difference between the two looks like it may start to contract a little in the coming weeks as well, which should send Euro higher. As a slight update to my previous post linked at the bottom, I've updated that chart to include the EU05Y and US05Y yields on the same scale, and the difference between the two (US05Y-EU05Y) on a different scale on the left. It gives a little more complete picture that may help pick out the longer term trend shifts. Zoomed in some on just the EURUSD, seeing how it's seemingly bottomed out, finding support here, and attempted a sharp rally this morning that was equally sharply rejected, but seems like this it's found support again and the trend for the coming weeks may well be a reversal to the upside for the Euro. On the 5 year bonds side of things, both have set slightly lower highs than last week, with there being a bigger drop for the US 5 year than the Euro. Possible we're seeing a slow down of those yields going higher, with the US possibly losing a little more yield than the Euro. Seems prime for a reversal after more than a month and a half of the Euro sliding. With that in mind, I did go long some AMEX:FXE 20 Oct 23 101 strike calls this morning. A little risky and out of the money with some time left, but if this rallies as I hope it will, the payoff should be pretty nice. Trading price at the time of trade was about $98.81. Ask side was 0.30. Contracts in the money at the moment trade for more than 1.00.
TVC:EU05YLong
by dieseldub
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
1
US 10Y TREASURY: at overbought sideFed Chair Powell's speech after the FOMC meeting, held on Wednesday significantly moved the markets during the second half of the previous week. A “higher for longer” wording used by FOMC members was not welcomed by the market. Fed Chair Powell mentioned another rate hike till the end of this year, with an expected rate cut somewhere during the end of the next year. FOMC projected reference rates to end 2024 at 5.1%. Such projections implied immediate market reaction and 10Y yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and level of 4.50%. Yields are ending the week at a level of 4.43%. RSI index reached a clear overbought side, which would in the case of 10Y yields, mean that the market had priced in new information received from Fed Chair Powell. There will be another rate hike till the end of this year, and a level of 4.5% has been priced. From now on, it could be expected some relaxation in the yields, which might return slowly to the level of 4.3% in the coming period. The level of uncertainty is currently increased on the market, but at this moment, further move beyond 4.5% level should not be expected.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Multi-year highs for US 10Y yieldThe Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a significant rise in US Treasury yields, reaching levels not seen in several years. This has, in turn, bolstered the US Dollar while putting pressure on US stock markets. Later this week, investors will closely monitor the release of US core PCE data, seeking additional insights into the country's inflation trends. In the short term, with the recent breakthrough above levels last observed in 2008, our primary focus remains on the upside, particularly towards the psychologically significant 5.00 mark and the 2006 peak at 5.25. Looking further ahead, we've used the width of the downward channel as a basis for measuring potential future gains. This analysis points to a longer-term target approaching 6.00."
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA