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US 10Y TREASURY: watch for October PCEPrevious week markets spent on digesting currently mixed economic data as well as statements from a few Fed officials. The most important question at the moment is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at December's FOMC meeting or not. Statements of two Fed officials were rather mixed. On one side, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted his view on a need for more rate cuts, but the pace of it should not be speeded up. On the other side is Fed Governor Bowman, who stated that the fight against inflation “appears to have stalled”. The week ahead is important for markets, as October PCE data are set for a release, in which sense, might provide some clearer picture to markets of a potential next Fed move. At the current moment there are only 35% odds that the Fed will cut rates by 25% in December. The 10Y US Treasuries were traded in a relatively mixed manner, exposing market uncertainty over the potential Feds move. The yields started the week around the level of 4,48% and for the rest of the week was oscillating around the 4,4% level. Further relaxation might continue during the week ahead, in case that the October PCE is in line with the current market expectations. In case that there are some deviations, then the yields might return toward the 4,5%. However, the most probable scenario is further relaxation of yields, at least to the level of 4,3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Bonds, gold and nextwe see, every wave has shorter distance on the time 200ma and when ever price touches to 20 ma, it stars falling. We also see indicators has sell signal. How ever it still has LITTLE chance to see top side of channel quickly because momentum looks very wavey (green arrow). In this case i put my bet for bears. Because there is more reasons for me(yellow arrow). Also i want to notice that bond and gold has still correlation. NOT like before but still...If we look from this point gold has already started pricing this action. And sory guys for messy chart but all need i guess. And again sory for bad english.
TVC:US10YShort
by ardatufekci33917
1
US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn. By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices. This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise. This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth. This is not financial advice.
TVC:AU10Y
by AriasWave
Long Term - US 2y with SPYThis 2 year plan is explained below. Chart = US 2 year on the top // SPY on the bottom To understand my charting and thought process, if you wish to, it’s best to start with the macro idea here. I’m tracking the US2 year yield. The peaks in ’89, ’00, ’06, ’18 and ’23 have created overturned cycles leading into recessions. Sure, the 2023 peak has not yet resulted in a confirmed - back dated - recession but the data is thick enough to predict one in my opinion. I think an equally important point here is to understand that putting a chart together with as much information as you can on an encompassing idea over a longer period of time is beneficial. It is to me anyway. I’ve chosen to focus on the largest market in trading…the bond market. So that being said, it’s probably best to just explain the lines and y’all can make your own conclusions. Ingredients: Vertical Lines Red = SPY market tops. And note the following % loss Green = SPY market bottoms that note the following % gains (it’s hard to read yes…anyone can build the chart and see the #’s if they want) Black = when a recession was officially declared. It’s always too late…FYI😊 Purple thick = when a 50bps reduction was mandated during FOMC. What I think is interesting here is that a -50bps cut happened 4 times during the ’07-’08 GFC, 9 times through the DotCom era and even 3x in the early 90’s. We’ll see a few more -50 in 2024-25 for sure and when interest rates are at 3.75-4.0 I’ll be mostly out of equities I think. If 2y doesn’t dead cat bounce from here I’m looking at as early as Q1 2025 to exit. The rest is self-explanatory. Bond yields are getting ever increasingly more volatile // 370% swing low to high post Dot-com to 5000% post covid to 2023?!. WTF…lol. We can see it clearly in the RSI. S&P is getting more volatile since 2018 too. Nice for trading but not ideal for recent long term investors. Horizontal Lines Blue = the bottom channel-ish on the 2y yield. It’s my own idea, so take it with a grain of salt please. I’ll be borrowing money at 1.5% or so in mid 2026 and going long AF. Of course as the charts evolve the thesis may get massaged but as an overall macro trend I don’t see a flaw in it yet. I think that’s it. Stay well traders and all the best. MR
TVC:US02Y
by Mr_Robbers
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed is not in hurryPrevious week on the US Treasury bond market was marked with Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed is “not in a hurry to lower interest rates”. The note came from Feds perception of a strong US growth, in which sense, there is no need to cut interest rates too soon. This marked investors confidence, so 10Y Treasury yields continued their path toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 4,49% at one point, however, yields are ending the week at 4,44%. It will take some time until the markets digest the mentioned note from Fed Chair Powell. Now the question is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at their December's meeting, or the rate cut will be postponed for next year. As per CME FedWatch Tool, the market is expecting with a 62% odds, that the Fed will cut in December by 25bps, while the rest is of opinion that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. This digesting might bring some volatility back on the market, where yields might move between 4,5% and 4,4% during the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
XAO - AU10YR - Australian Stock Market - 10 YR Bond YieldsStarting with this video, I'll begin incorporating insights from AriasWave into each new release. Here, I dive deep into what I believe to be the true pattern of the Australian Stock Market and discuss what might unfold next. I also analyze 10-year bond yields, presenting a case for significantly higher rates—potentially reaching at least 16%. This isn't just about making bold predictions; I break down the reasoning behind these conclusions using detailed wave analysis.
TVC:AU10Y
by AriasWave
1
US10Y 1D RSI Bearish Divergence signals a long-term sell.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 27 2023 Low. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is approaching the patterns top. The 1D RSI is already making a bearish reversal though, having posted Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which technically is a Bearish Divergence. As a result, we expect the Bullish Leg to top soon and then reverse to the Channel's new Bearish Leg. The previous one made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern on the 1.2 Fibonacci extension level and as a result our Target is just above it at 3.500%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
US 10Y TREASURY: still digestingIt was an interesting week for US Treasury bonds. Although markets went into hype after the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the US, the 10Y Treasury yields remained out of this scope. Their exclusive focus was on the FOMC meeting and Fed’s next move. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with a solid overview of the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury benchmark reached its highest weekly level at 4,47%, after which some relaxation came, down to the level of 4,30%. Markets will use the week ahead to digest currently available data. The Fed has another FOMC meeting scheduled in December. Markets are expecting, with currently 75% odds that the Fed will make another rate cut by 25 bps. In line with this sentiment, it could be expected that 10Y Treasury yields will continue with a relaxation. However, some volatility might also be expected, where the yields might shortly turn to the upside, testing levels modestly above current 4,3% level, before they make a move toward the 4,2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yields USA 1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%): - The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation. 2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%): - The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening. 3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%): - The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation. 4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%): - The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds. The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by eLs-Trading
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope