US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting to Fed`s narrativeThe largest surprise during the Holiday week on the Western markets was a sudden move of the 10Y US benchmark yields toward the higher grounds. The 10Y yields reached the level of 4,629% after weightening the Fed`s narrative from the last FOMC meeting. The market is now anticipating a more hawkish Fed's policy in 2025. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 2025, but there is no expectation that the Fed will make any move in interest rates during this meeting. As Fed Chair Powell noted in his statement in December, the Fed will continue to look at inflation and strength of the job market, before it decides on a next rate cut. Inflation is expected to stay sticky in 2025, while the market will continue to listen closely what Fed is saying.
Government bonds
Weelky Leading Indicators are NOT BullishThe Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode.
SG10Y have broken up of a trendline
TIPS and TLT have broken down support
JNK similarly broke down of support
The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story.
SOXL is holding up somewhat though.
So while all 4 Leading Indicators are red flagging.
The Indices have yet to respond.
Watch for it... and be careful.
Happy New Year 2025!
UP "Please provide a meaningful and detailed description of your prediction..." Says Tradingview
Up. It go up. Why? Idono the same as you do or do not know. It's the simple things I think that makes dollars sound like soundness of mind. While lil Timmy has been working hard to get a few bucks to buy his favorite dog coin he heard about at lunch yesterday in middle school.
Asking a fool like me what to buy with his allowance. Who isn't looking for a return nowadays I guess even at 11 we need to make 1000x gainz because "10 years!?" "That's forever!" he and any other like minded person may say to me. I think all they heard was the "10 Year" Part...😋
Ya know? One things for sure we are all counting dollars when this or whatever thing you think will make you money moves up or down. Hummmmmm Maybe there's something to that whole I need a dollar thought?🤑
I bet it would be carzy to see the Yield on the 10 year US GOV Bonds run up to 16%.
What kind of future are we all living in when that happens??? Asking for this 11 year old thats asking me what the next best coin is from here....
YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so.
🚽👄 Toilet Mouth: "Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT"
⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits.
⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not.
No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
Things 🤷♂️ #Fixed IDK!
🙏FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK!
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!""
I am The CoinSLayer 👨💻😈
You have been warned by The Coin SLayer!
P.S. Now witha bag!
P.S.S. well two or Ten
10 YR StuckAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
10 YR Heading HigherAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
10 YR Heading HigherAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
A Turning Point for RatesAll bets are off until further notice following the Fed day rout. That said, it has been and continues to be the case that any meaningful improvement in rates will require downbeat economic data and softer inflation. At this point in the year, we're waiting until early January for the next major shoes to drop (NFP and CPI, specifically).
Comparing US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX, fundamental/technical analysisProposed technical/fundamental analysis for US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX.
Bank unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held to maturity securities was $364 billion in Q3 2024; this number will continue to increase as long-term treasure rates increase (www.fdic.gov).
US10Y yield chart looks for yield to go higher, north of 5%. If treasury rates continue to increase, there may be a bank run, as banks get more and more underwater with their unrealized losses. DXY will go up above 120, US500 will crater below October 2022 low of 3490.2, and VIX will pop towards 80.
Understanding the US10Y Crab Pattern in 2024
The US10Y refers to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy and is closely watched by investors.
"Analyzing the US10Y trend, a bearish butterfly pattern has emerged at the 1.276 and 1.618 level, indicating a potential bullish trend in 2023. This pattern suggested a reversal in the current market direction, and The US10Y bond market has been exhibiting an intriguing pattern known as the "CRAB PATTERN," with implications for the year 2024.
This pattern suggests that the market may experience a period of consolidation before potentially reversing its direction. Additionally, the presence of a parallel channel further supports the notion of a bearish trend, as this technical indicator typically indicates a downward trajectory in the market.
Traders and analysts should closely monitor these developments and consider potential strategies to navigate the market amidst this anticipated trend.
It is crucial to conduct thorough analysis and consider various factors before making any significant trading decisions in response to the observed pattern and trend.
US 10Y TREASURY: only 50 bps in 2025?The Fed spoiled the market game for one more time. Although interest rates were cut by another 25 bps as expected, still the market did not like what Powell said about projections for 2025. He noted that the Fed expects persistent inflation, hence, the current projections are drop in interest rates by only 50 bps. Inflation expectations were also corrected, so now the Fed expects the PCE indicator to end next year at 2,5%, versus 2,2% previously forecasted, while its targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027.
The inevitable happened on the Treasury market - yields went strongly higher. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moved from 4,3% from the start of the week toward the highest weekly level at 4,58%. However, they eased at Friday's trading session, after better than expected US inflation data, ending the week at 4,52%.
Holiday season on Western markets is coming in the week ahead. During this period of time it should not expect any stronger moves or higher corrections. In this sense, the 10Y US Treasury would most probably end this year around levels of 4,5%.
100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield.
Basis = 10 Year SMA
Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis
Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis
For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction.
*** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
SG10Y SG Govt Bond Yield UNCANNY heads up on US EquitiesHere is a rehash of the relationship between the Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yields and US Equities ETF, SPY (Blue Line).
Noted that when the SG10Y technically breaks out, the SPY technically breaks down, and vice versa.
This is not 100% but happens an estimated 80% of the time, and recent occurences since September are marked out with bullish green or bearish red time lines, respective to SPY from the SG10Y leading indications.
Just middle of this past week, the SG10Y spiked strongly and broke out, the next day saw the SPY tank significantly. In fact, the MACD for the SG10Y had already pre-warned of the breakout two days earlier!
Given the current set up, as usual, I do my technical and charting projections. And in this case, it is clear that the Santa rally fizzled, year closign and next year opening should be weak until early February. Now, if this projection works as it should, then we would likely see a weak 2025 for the US equities... not only to take profit, but also offers opportunities to buy in at some point.
(side note: as far back as 2020, 2025 was marked as the year of some resurgence of affliction from the neck upwards. It is a little sketchy, but it would very well be the surprise to tank the markets enough... watch for it)
Market Alert: US 10Y YieldBack in mid-October, I mentioned keeping the US 10Y yield on your radar 📊 as it appeared to be forming a potential falling wedge pattern. This pattern, if completed, would indicate higher interest rates ahead.
Well... the time is here! 👀 Should the market close above 4.42% today, this pattern will officially complete.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Ideally, a second close above this zone in the New Year would confirm the breakout.
✅ This suggests not only a retest of the 2023 high of 5.02%, but also an upside measured target of 5.60%!
Stay sharp and keep this on your radar! 📈
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top:
Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook.
The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize.
For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators.
You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough.
There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
US10Y ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 19 DEC, 2024©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
The entire ((2))-navy most recent completed as an (A)(B)(C)-orange Zigzag, and the ((3))-navy is now retracing to push higher.
It is subdividing into a (1)(2)-orange, and they have completed, since the high of 4.126%, the (3)-orange is unfolding to push lower, targeting the high of 5.163%