Get started

Government bonds

Bond market bottom ? Equites down bonds to change and move up?Simply put, USA needs the interest rate to be lower, it bounces off the long term KLOS then we could see a change in direction for bonds something that next to no one is expecting. Trump is coming into help save the world. So his new team will make structural changes Elon could tweet to all to buy bonds and hey everyone who follows him takes action to save their own butts. Elon fixes the deficit hugely in relative proportions without putting the jobs at risk. That would on the one hand help savers and people with mortgages as if the price of the bonds goes up then interest rates go down. however the loss to Americans from their stock portfolios does not help the total money held by Americans. The box represents only 7% away price may reverse at round number 100, which is not so far away now. This area offers strong KLOS for a bounce from 2004 levels You could get short term fed notes which pay well and would benefit from any reduction in interest rates. I think these would hold their prices or go up a bit because they may get bid but the money moving out of equites. Interest rates to move lower ? (with a bit of dollar weakness ?) this will reduce the payments all governments need to make globally so as to stretch their budgets rather then raise taxes.
OANDA:USB30YUSDLong
by William_Playfair
2024 review and where to from here for US10yRisk-off sentiment doesn’t seem to last long in this current market despite all the geopolitical tensions, election volatility and inflation fears we witnessed this year. In spite of all the volatility and the odd carry trade squeeze the SPX is set to end the year up more than 25%, its second year on the trot of more than 20% gains. Never the less the US10 is on its way to close the year down roughly 4.5%. Meanwhile gold, a risk-off asset similar to US long-term treasuries, touched fresh all-time highs in October at $2,792 per ounce, up almost 30% year-to-date, and bitcoin (regardless whether you see it as a store of value, casino capitalism coin or a reserve asset) is up 125% year-to-date. The US 10-year yield was off to the races in the first four months of the year off the back of elevated inflation and modest US labour market growth which saw yields climb to highs of 4.7%. 10-year yields however turned at the end of April after US CPI topped out at 3.5% in April while the US unemployment rate continued to tick higher. I initially expected treasuries to continue their sell-off in the 2Q2024 and the US 10-year yield to break above the April high of 4.7% to complete another wave higher towards 5.0% however the forward guidance from the Fed coupled with their self-proclaimed victory against inflation ultimately pushed bids for bonds. Additionally, in June the ECB, BOE and other major central banks started front running the Fed with their rate cuts which strengthened the demand for treasuries and the dollar. The failed break above 4.5% in July coupled with the US unemployment rate topping out at a rate of 4.3% let the bond bulls loose. Yields continued to slide rapidly in the 3Q2024 until Japanic Monday on the 5th of August when the carry trade squeeze scorched short positions on the Japanese Yen after the BoJ’s surprise rate hike. Bond bulls managed to pull the yield down to a low of 3.6% before the Fed’s 50bps rate cut unexpectedly halted their run. Counter intuitively, longer-term yields have been rising since the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate. The Fed controls the short the short-end of the yield curve and with the Fed cutting rates coupled with the treasury sell-off, the market finally saw the normalization of the yield curve which has been inverted since July 2022! So, where to from here? The conclusion of the US election results saw treasury yields come off of their highs of around 4.5% but the current sell-off may still have legs if the bond vigilantes see another bout of inflation on the horizon. Additionally, the Fed has indicated that they are in no hurry to cut rates, opting for a more hawkish stance. The last non-farm payroll print will be released on Friday which may give some technical direction for yields heading into 2025. A break below the 200-day and 50-day MA around 4.2% will allow yields to drop back below 4% as we head into the New Year. My prediction is however for a re-test of the 2024 high at 4.7% early in 2025. A break above the 61.8% Fibo level of 4.3% will be an early indication of this move. In terms of technical indicators the RSI still has room to move higher and is close to oversold ranges while a cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA will signal a golden cross. Additionally the impulse wave following the Fed rate cut was very strong which signals to me that we are current seeing a bullish pullback in yields (bearish for bonds).
TVC:US10YLong
by Goose96
US10Y afternoon analysisTechnical analysis for US10Y. Bearish on long-term bonds, this analysis has yields continuing to go up. Displayed count has A wave beginning off 9 March 2020 low, completed 23 October 2023. B wave as completed zigzag to September 17 2024 low. C wave count in wave 3 of 3, with targets of 5.337% and 5.592%. This count shows C wave completing at top of pitchfork (drawn off 9 March 2020 low), but with measured move I would expect the C wave to complete north of 6.496%. Key supports: 4.507% and 4.126% Key resistances: 4.739% and 5.021%
TVC:US10YShort
by discobiscuit
1
US 10Y TREASURY: expected economic outlookInvestors continue to weigh the US economic outlook for the year 2025, and adjust their positions accordingly. Although there has not been significant US macro data released during the previous week, still, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for December showed that the US manufacturing remained under pressure. Also, weekly jobs data missed the investors’ expectations. The market reacted with further decrease of the price of the US Treasuries, increasing the 10Y benchmark yield to the highest weekly level of 4,62%. Still, they have ended the week at 4,60%. In a week ahead, the US non-farm payroll data are set for a release. This might bring further volatility to the market, and a reaction in modestly higher 10Y yields. The higher volatility might continue through the month, prior to the January FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 28-29th.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Reversal Imminent as Bond Yields Hit Key Support🚨 Why Record-Low Bond Yields Matter for Chinese Stocks 🚨 When bond yields hit record lows, it sends ripples across financial markets, and for Chinese stocks like NYSE:NIO , NYSE:BABA , and NASDAQ:JD , the implications are particularly impactful. Here's why: 1️⃣ Lower Borrowing Costs Low yields equate to reduced interest rates, making it cheaper for companies to finance debt or raise capital. For capital-intensive firms like NYSE:NIO , NYSE:BABA , and NASDAQ:JD , this means: Improved financial stability: Lower interest expenses help preserve cash flow. Accelerated growth potential: Easier access to capital supports scaling operations, R&D, and expansion. 2️⃣ Increased Market Liquidity Monetary easing drives investors away from low-yield bonds and into equities, searching for higher returns. Growth stocks like NYSE:NIO , NYSE:BABA , and NASDAQ:JD are especially attractive in this environment because: Their valuation thrives on future earnings potential. Increased equity demand supports rising stock prices. 3️⃣ Stimulus-Driven Demand Low bond yields often align with monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts aimed at boosting economic activity. For NIO, BABA, and JD: Electric Vehicles (EVs): Subsidies and green initiatives can stimulate EV demand, benefiting NIO. Consumer Spending: Platforms like BABA and JD benefit from increased consumer confidence and spending. Technical Analysis Supports the Case The CN10Y (China 10-Year Treasury Yield) has reached the bottom of its falling wedge pattern, a historically bullish signal for Chinese equities: Repeated pattern: Every time the CN10Y bottoms, Chinese stocks surge significantly. RSI Oversold: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms an oversold condition, indicating a potential market reversal is imminent. What to Watch For 📈 As bond yields drop, the market is setting the stage for a potential rally in Chinese growth stocks. Be prepared for a surge, particularly as stimulus measures kick in and liquidity flows into equities. Chinese stocks like NYSE:NIO , NYSE:BABA , and NASDAQ:JD might be on the brink of a significant uptrend. 🚀 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TVC:CN10YLong
by MarketPax
3
US10Y yieldsYields are the factor that dictates what happens to the market next. In case of a break above the white trend around 4.8% expect another push higher towards 5.2% which will mean the stock market might a final push higher, then a recession should hit at this rate. in case of a break below the yellow channel around 4.35% expect further downside to 3.2% which should coincide with a healthy market correction and a run to safety with a rise in bonds, below this level should means recession is already in
TVC:US10Y
by lell0312
Did the 10 year yield break in 2008?Good day Traders and investors, The 10 year yield on the 6 month chart. This is the entire history on one chart. What is going on with the 10 year yield? It is getting very, very volatile. It all started in 2008 with the financial crisis just looming around the corner. At the same time it broke the .236 on the Fibonacci sequence and has been diving ever since. That is until the next major crisis of the pandemic where is seems to have bottomed and took a strong bounce off a cliff dive. What does all this mean? did something break in 2008 like a lot of economist are saying? It's very possible. When we look at the chart, the 10 year yield compared to the last decade has been very stable. Even during the Volker years (late 70's early 80's) when interest rates spikes it barely made a move out from the norm and then rode the top of the trend as support for years until 2008. This volatility break out does look deferent and kind of scary. What will the volatility lead too, massive spike? or massive plunge? Could it also just bounce around sideways for years? What we have to keep in mind is, these are historically long-term trends. 20 to 40 years. Could this move up be a fake out? Yes, I think it's possible, however a fake out is on this chart 5 to 10 years, so it's of no major concern at the moment. THE INDICATRORS Right away, when look at the chart and the RSI, we see clear weakening and bearish divergence on the trend. We can see it playing out (bearish divergence) from 1968 to 1981, when the yield made a higher high but the RSI made a lower low. As we can see the divergence did play out, but it took almost 2 generations in 40 years. Also the ASO has been showing that the sentiment over the yield has been lessening over the years on the up swings and down swings, but it just had a major cross, so is that over now? Time will tell, a lot of it. Touching on the Historical volatility again, we clearly see a sense of somewhat controlled or stable volatility for close to 100 years until 2008. Could this new volatility be the new trending range for the next hundred years? Possibly, if so, it shouldn't concern us. For now, we should just focus on the next 5 to 10 years and see what happens. I have included a couple of scenarios in the chart. If the RSI gets rejected from this down trend, then yes, this is the chance that it could be a fake out move and then reverse and go lower. If volatility stays high and the trend is to go up for 20 to 40 years then I do believe the RSI would have to break this down trend. both of those in my opinions are scary, the 2nd one than the first. There is also sideways action for a decade and possible a cool down of the volatility before the next move, I would prefer this one, as it seems less scary to me. THE FLUFF AND EXTRA I think the yields being a fake out and go lower is the least likely scenario. However, (and here is the Fluff) my conspiracy mind has one scenario where this could happen. It all hinges and plays on CBDC's becoming a thing during this time frame. The theory is if CBDC's are introduced within the next 5 to 10 years then the yields could reverse, go back and make new lows at some point. The reason being is I don't think we can go negative yields without CBDC's. That doesn't mean it's a given if CBDC are implemented, it means the doorway would be opened for it. Remember, this is just FLUFF and opinion and means nothing. Kind regards & Have great day Demetrios
TVC:US10Y
by WeAreSat0shi
1
JP10Y JAPANESE GOVERMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELDJP10Y PLAYS A KEY ROLE IN YEN TRADING ACROSS ALL PAIRS Interest Rate Differential: When JGB yields rise, it increases the interest rate differential between Japan and other countries. This makes JPY more attractive to investors, causing the currency to strengthen. 2. Capital Inflows: Higher JGB yields attract foreign investors seeking higher returns, leading to capital inflows into Japan. This increased demand for JPY causes the currency to appreciate. 3. Reduced Carry Trade: A higher JGB yield reduces the attractiveness of the carry trade, where investors borrow JPY at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets. Reduced carry trade activity leads to a stronger JPY. 4. Increased Hawkishness: Rising JGB yields may signal a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which can lead to a stronger JPY.
TVC:JP10Y
by Shavyfxhub
2024 is a wrap - time for 2025 outlook - let's go2024 will be a memorable year -23% gains -Mag 7 + Semiconductors + Bitcoin all contributing nicely -PLTR was the top performing stock in the S&P 500 (impressive 340.48%) As always, 2024 wasn't in a straight line up, though it felt like it at times VIX had #1 and #2 largest single day moves ever (Aug 5 and Dec 18) April was a sticky inflation pullback month August was a Bank of Japan deleveraging weekend scare FED dominated the catalysts with guidance, narrative, and wait and see between employment and inflation data 2025 will bring new president, new policy, new Republican power. Many were excited about this but there are still checks and balances and markets need more reassurance than hyperbole. I plan to look at income plays and trading plays were buy and hold. Whatever I do own equities and ETFs wise, I want protection just in case the market isn't as straightforward and bullish like it has been since Oct 2022. Happy New Year - thanks for watching!!! See you in 2025!!!
TVC:US10Y
by ChrisPulver
1
US 3mo as short term Leading Indicator?As I continue to watch bond markets and the 3 month specifically I have noticed a pattern for short term bullish confluence with SPY. I have highlighted (with the light purple dots) the pops in the daily 3mo chart that occur after at least a five day downward yield slide. Above the 3mo candles is a snip of the SPY chart that corresponds with the initial 3mo daily pop. The text in green notes the percentages over the following 7 and 13 trading days. A couple of the SPY snips actually fell off on the 14th day after the initial pop so that is where I am capping the potential gains going forward. Please also note that the Dec 4th pop resulted in a loss in SPY for both the 7 and 13 trading days afterwards. The SPY fractal that starts from today’s 3mo pop (Tues Dec 31) is essentially a copy of SPY action from mid-Nov to mid-Dec 2024. If it were to play out we would be at or slightly above all time highs going into the Jan 20th US inauguration and then flat into Jan 29 FOMC. FYI…the daily sideways scale of the SPY snips does not align perfectly with 3mo daily candles. I did try to line up the starting day for each though. There are of course 3mo auctions 4 times a month on avg. (large snip left lower on chart) so take this info as you will. I am only noting what I see as a pattern of a pop in yield following a significant decline in yield and the corresponding SPY price action in the following week or two. One could easily argue that the santa rally is not here this year…and the glaring head and shoulders on the SPY daily chart warrants more downside. I am choosing to remain cautiously optimistic with the bond information in conjunction with my overall thesis leading into Q1 of 2025. I believe the bond markets close at 2pm today, so assuming todays 3mo candle remains a green pop I offer this thesis as a possibility. Thanks and take care. Happy New Year all. MR
TVC:US03MYLong
by Mr_Robbers
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting to Fed`s narrativeThe largest surprise during the Holiday week on the Western markets was a sudden move of the 10Y US benchmark yields toward the higher grounds. The 10Y yields reached the level of 4,629% after weightening the Fed`s narrative from the last FOMC meeting. The market is now anticipating a more hawkish Fed's policy in 2025. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 2025, but there is no expectation that the Fed will make any move in interest rates during this meeting. As Fed Chair Powell noted in his statement in December, the Fed will continue to look at inflation and strength of the job market, before it decides on a next rate cut. Inflation is expected to stay sticky in 2025, while the market will continue to listen closely what Fed is saying.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Weelky Leading Indicators are NOT BullishThe Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode. SG10Y have broken up of a trendline TIPS and TLT have broken down support JNK similarly broke down of support The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story. SOXL is holding up somewhat though. So while all 4 Leading Indicators are red flagging. The Indices have yet to respond. Watch for it... and be careful. Happy New Year 2025!
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
UP "Please provide a meaningful and detailed description of your prediction..." Says Tradingview Up. It go up. Why? Idono the same as you do or do not know. It's the simple things I think that makes dollars sound like soundness of mind. While lil Timmy has been working hard to get a few bucks to buy his favorite dog coin he heard about at lunch yesterday in middle school. Asking a fool like me what to buy with his allowance. Who isn't looking for a return nowadays I guess even at 11 we need to make 1000x gainz because "10 years!?" "That's forever!" he and any other like minded person may say to me. I think all they heard was the "10 Year" Part...😋 Ya know? One things for sure we are all counting dollars when this or whatever thing you think will make you money moves up or down. Hummmmmm Maybe there's something to that whole I need a dollar thought?🤑 I bet it would be carzy to see the Yield on the 10 year US GOV Bonds run up to 16%. What kind of future are we all living in when that happens??? Asking for this 11 year old thats asking me what the next best coin is from here.... YOLO Moonboyz 🌛 If you feel so inclined to do so. 🚽👄 Toilet Mouth: "Why do all your post say Short!?" or a bunch of "BUT, BUT, BUT" ⭐Not my job to tell you to buy or sell entries matter to most I only care about my exits. ⭐Let each person determine their cost to acquire and choice to play or not. No Advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 8 years in the world of "CRYPTO" Things 🤷‍♂️ #Fixed IDK! 🙏FOR JUST A HEALTHLY PULLBACK! ""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK & BALANCE your Senses!"" I am The CoinSLayer 👨‍💻😈 You have been warned by The Coin SLayer! P.S. Now witha bag! P.S.S. well two or Ten
TVC:US10YShort
by BradySWilliams