Get started

Government bonds

Bund: Bearish Crab Formed, Potential Head & Shoulders Breakdown FX:BUND The Bund has recently formed a bearish crab pattern on December 6th at 136.42, which triggered a pullback. It's worth noting that this level coincided with the monthly fractal resistance from August at 136.25, a key zone that could lead to a significant rejection. With the new support established at 134.38, we are now at a critical point where a head and shoulders pattern may start to develop. If this pattern completes, it could push Bund back to 132.46, marking a strong bearish move after a previous momentum surge. Key Highlights: Bearish crab pattern formed on December 6th at 136.42, triggering pullback. Testing the monthly fractal resistance at 136.25, which could provide strong resistance. New support at 134.38 acting as the neckline for a potential head and shoulders pattern. Right shoulder of the pattern still forming, but a break below 134.38 could lead to further downside. If the head and shoulders pattern completes, Bund could drop to 132.46.
FX:BUNDShort
by Andre_Cardoso
US 10Y TREASURY: expecting a 25 bps cutAs the Feds December meeting is approaching, so the market nervousness is increasing. During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark reverted back toward the 4,4% level, from 4,2% traded previously. Such a move was a reflection of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by additional 25 bps on December 18th. Also, ahead of the FOMC meeting, November inflation data was published, showing 0,4% increase in November, higher from market expectation of 0,2%. Increased volatility might be expected also during the first two days of the week ahead. The current 4,4% level for 10Y US Treasuries might be its highest level for the week. As per CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently 97% odds that the Fed will cut by 25 bps. In this sense, some relaxation in yields might be expected during the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Weekly Leading Indicator Panel warns...Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best indication. Even SOXL appears to be bullish somewhat... No action needed, but just an early warning given to set the boundaries yet again... looks like the Christmas Rally just fizzled out.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
10 year - 3 month yield curve has un-invertedThe past may not predict the future, but history does tend to rhyme. In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with: *** 9/11 in 2001 *** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008 *** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term? Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
TVC:US10Y
by MrMomo177
1
US10Y - Elliott Wave AnalysisNot sure if this will happen but if it does, what does it mean ? 1. Impact on the US Dollar Strengthens the Dollar: Higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US Dollar. Rising yields often coincide with expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which further boosts the dollar. 2. Impact on Gold Negative for Gold: Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it doesn’t pay interest or dividends. When bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it less attractive. A rising US Dollar (driven by higher yields) also makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing global demand. Inflation Hedge Caveat: If rising yields are driven by inflation concerns, gold might still see some demand as a hedge, although its gains are often capped by rising yields. 3. Impact on the Stock Market General Impact: Rising yields increase borrowing costs for companies, reducing profits and potentially slowing down growth. Investors may rotate out of riskier assets like equities into safer Treasuries as yields become more attractive. Value vs. Growth: Value Stocks (e.g., banks, industrials): These may benefit from rising yields as they’re tied to economic growth and inflation expectations. Growth Stocks (e.g., tech companies): These tend to underperform because their valuations depend on future cash flows, which are discounted more heavily as yields rise. 4. Impact on Nasdaq (Tech Stocks) Negative Impact: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward growth and tech stocks, which are sensitive to rising yields. Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings, making high-valuation tech stocks less appealing. Example: Periods of sharply rising yields often coincide with sell-offs in the Nasdaq. 5. Impact on Emerging Markets Outflows from Emerging Markets: Rising US yields can draw capital away from emerging markets as investors seek safer and higher-yielding US assets. This can weaken emerging market currencies and lead to tighter financial conditions in those economies. 6. Broader Market Sentiment Inflation Expectations: Rising yields driven by inflation concerns can create volatility across all asset classes. Fed Policy Sensitivity: Markets may react negatively if higher yields signal faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes. Historical Context Periods of sharply rising yields (e.g., during taper tantrums or inflation scares) have often led to stronger US dollars, weaker gold prices, and volatile stock markets, with the Nasdaq typically underperforming due to its tech-heavy composition.
TVC:US10YLong
by tigo2020
2
US 10Y TREASURY: inflation data aheadThe NFP data were in the center of market attention during the previous week. Analysts perceived posted data as “not too hot and not too cold”. Indeed, they were somewhere in between. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was higher from market estimate, but at the same time the unemployment rate reached 4,2%, a modest increase from 4,1% posted previously. Regardless of these mixed data, CME FedWatch Tool is showing 85% odds for a 25 bps rate cut in December. It should be taken into account that the US inflation data is set to be released during the week ahead, which will bring another layer to market expectations. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields were traded to the downside during the previous week. For the second week in a row yields are gradually taking the down course. During the previous week, the 10Y benchmark was closed at the level of 4,17%. Next week, the US November inflation data will be posted, however, investors are currently positioning for the FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.8% Soon The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further. A very strong resistance zone is found near 4.16%, which was just broken. Additionally, overall market expectations regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut during the December meeting by 25 basis points or higher speculation may push the US10Y Government Bond Yield down even more. Let's see how the price unfolds during the coming days. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:US10YShort
by KlejdiCuni
5
US10Y: Hit the 1D MA50. See how to trade if it breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.524, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 44.101) and since last Friday it has been trading on the 1D MA50. That was the first test of this trendline in 2 months and even though yesterday's candle closed under it, we don't have a decisive breakout yet. A candle considerably below it, should test the 1D MA100. This is part of the larger Channel Down and a crossing under the 1D MA100 validates that this is the new bearish wave. The 1D RSI already is inside a mirror Channel Down pattern as April 15th-May 15th. Our perspective is long term bearish in any case but if the 1D MA100 holds, you may trade within the Channel Down and the circles for short term buy and sell entries. Our long term target is raised a little higher on the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.500%). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
Treasuries to Bitcoin reverse coorelationWhile Bitcoin and crypto are new to the game as opposed to classic assets like bonds, we can see in 2020 there was a specific and rather chilling hedge against the market. We know if the inversion of the short and long tail yields invert from short > long rates back to short < long, a timer is activated in the shifting of treasuries from short to long in a stabilization to normality, however observing the US02Y/US10Y back testing will show us that a recession is months away after the values return to short rates being less than long rates. Why is that? Why does the inversion track recession so accurately? Well it's based on intention of investors, many who are insiders. Preparing for a swap in rates can mean that long term stability is returning so worth the interest risk over the time delta, while short term rates reduce in value due to uncertainty raising in the short term. Follow the money, and not the mouths. We have seen many times mouths speak one way and money flows the other... Topping off this crypto inclusion only shows a new player in this dance of rates. the complete disconnect and reverse correlation at the moment indicated on the chart on Bitcoin shows that when we have a significant drop in rate adjustments (ie: feeling comfortable about future treasuries vs feeling nervous about near term treasuries) signals crypto as a hedge against the commonly seen recessive nature of un-inversion.
TVC:US02Y
by SuperScholarXYZ
Market Update: EU 10-Year Yield Under Pressure The 10-year yield has faced mounting pressure over the past month, and we’re now approaching critical support levels—notably, 2.00/2.01, the recent low. 🔍 Key Insights: • The RSI has dipped to 16, suggesting that this zone may hold on the initial test. • However, the broader pattern since 2023 is starting to resemble a potential topping formation. ⚠️ What to Watch For: A weekly close below 2.00 could expose the market to significant downside risks: ➡️ Targets include: • The 2024 low at 1.89 • The December 2022 low at 1.75 • Longer-term potential to slide toward the 200-week moving average, currently around 1.46 As the bond market approaches these pivotal levels, it’s critical for investors to stay vigilant and prepared for potential shifts in the macro landscape. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:EU10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP on scheduleRegardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts. At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for October PCEPrevious week markets spent on digesting currently mixed economic data as well as statements from a few Fed officials. The most important question at the moment is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at December's FOMC meeting or not. Statements of two Fed officials were rather mixed. On one side, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted his view on a need for more rate cuts, but the pace of it should not be speeded up. On the other side is Fed Governor Bowman, who stated that the fight against inflation “appears to have stalled”. The week ahead is important for markets, as October PCE data are set for a release, in which sense, might provide some clearer picture to markets of a potential next Fed move. At the current moment there are only 35% odds that the Fed will cut rates by 25% in December. The 10Y US Treasuries were traded in a relatively mixed manner, exposing market uncertainty over the potential Feds move. The yields started the week around the level of 4,48% and for the rest of the week was oscillating around the 4,4% level. Further relaxation might continue during the week ahead, in case that the October PCE is in line with the current market expectations. In case that there are some deviations, then the yields might return toward the 4,5%. However, the most probable scenario is further relaxation of yields, at least to the level of 4,3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Bonds, gold and nextwe see, every wave has shorter distance on the time 200ma and when ever price touches to 20 ma, it stars falling. We also see indicators has sell signal. How ever it still has LITTLE chance to see top side of channel quickly because momentum looks very wavey (green arrow). In this case i put my bet for bears. Because there is more reasons for me(yellow arrow). Also i want to notice that bond and gold has still correlation. NOT like before but still...If we look from this point gold has already started pricing this action. And sory guys for messy chart but all need i guess. And again sory for bad english.
TVC:US10YShort
by ardatufekci33917
1