Market Outlook – April 4, 2025Hey everyone, just sharing my thoughts on the current market situation based on recent developments and upcoming events.
1. Tariff Announcement Shockwave
Yesterday's announcement from former President Trump regarding significant import tariffs has already triggered strong market reactions. We saw a sharp drop in SPX and related assets , with nearly 30% lost at one point. This kind of aggressive protectionist policy adds heavy pressure to an already fragile market.
2. Upcoming NFP and Unemployment Data
We’re now awaiting today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data (12:30 UTC).
- Forecast: NFP at 135k (vs. previous 151k)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (same as previous)
If these come in weaker than forecast, this may confirm slowing economic conditions, increasing downside pressure.
3. Powell’s Speech Later Today
At 15:25 UTC, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak. This could be a major turning point , depending on whether he addresses the tariff situation or hints at monetary policy support.
If he avoids the topic or stays hawkish, we could see more selling ahead.
4. What I’m Watching
- SPX approaching resistance at 0.508–0.510 with decreasing momentum (look at RSI divergence).
- Coinbase Premium remains negative overall, indicating cautious institutional sentiment .
- Volumes have picked up, which might suggest distribution rather than healthy accumulation .
Conclusion:
Personally, I remain cautious . This recent rise could be a bull trap , especially ahead of such high-impact events. Unless the data surprises to the upside and Powell offers dovish signals, I’m expecting increased volatility and possibly more downside.
Stay sharp, protect your capital.
