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ALGO 4-hour .. Trade Long in progressI figured this one out a day or two ago. Placed an order in for the long position. I am now active in the trade. Even if it goes lower I will just stay in the trade. I see ALGO going upwards for another run. Yeah so... risky as it may seem, I guessed purely on historical support area and 50% drop from recent ATH. I am going with the trade, "Buy the dip" philosophy. Buying in, on the way down. It is possible that, if the market in whole, continues a down hill march... ALGO will probably reach the 20 cent area. .. Then 15 and 10 cent areas. Highly unlikely, however it still could happen, nothing is guaranteed.
COINBASE:ALGOUSDLong
by Quartz-
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
Technical Review - BTCThere are lots of confident predictions about where markets will head next. However, at its core, trading is about speculation and taking calculated risks—not about certainty. In this post, I'll share some technical trades in BTC from recent price action. While hindsight bias will naturally come into play, I did take several of these setups in real time. Higher Timeframe Context (1-Month) In terms of the higher timeframe context, there has been a clear uptrend with two distinct continuation setups (noticeable move up, followed by a contraction towards the mean price which then sets up for a continuation). At the current time there has been an attempt for a third move. These could have been entered on the range expansion from the contractive state, however when prices become extended towards the outer boundaries we better be cautious due to risk of mean reversion. At such extremes, its better to scale out or look for better opportunities. These locations are often reached as measured moves (assumed average price volatility is sustained, as seen on the right side of the chart). This does not meant the move is over, but rather where the risk of mean reversion is increased, price can deviate from average volatility all the time. This analysis is not a prediction of future behavior, but rather a review of recent events and how they could have been traded in technical terms. There is also a component of discretion, which occur in in real time, but is not relevant to asses at this point. Before we take a trade we want to consider: What is the current structure in play, is it a trend or a range? Where is price located within that structure, are we at or near extremes? In case above conditions are met, is there a setup or an entry trigger? This all boils down to the search for imbalance. Daily Timeframe: Range-Bound Trading Opportunities In terms of my trading timeframe, which is the daily, BTC has spent the past months within a distinct range. When such a structure is in play, the locations of interest are at or near the extremes (upper and lower boundaries) where imbalances tend to occur. Efficient trades at these extremes typically arise when there’s a failure test (also known as a failed breakout or 2B pattern). In these cases, price pushes outside the boundary, fails to follow through, and reverses back inside—often trapping participants and can fuel a move in the opposite direction. This dynamic tend to hold until there is an actual breakout, there is no bulletproof way to know what will happened, but most of the time it can be helpful to reference the higher timeframe. For example, in case breakout happen in opposite to the trend we can treat them as potential failures, while with trend (as in this case with BTC to the upside) we can either treat them as breakouts or at least not fade the move. There are however exceptions and nuances to these type of plays. On the chart, I’ve marked all failure tests where price moved back into the range and formed bullish continuation structures. These setups offered opportunities to enter and take profits. In my case, I typically targeted 1R trades on these setups, with some extending into full measured moves. In conclusion, its probably a decent idea to have a structured framework to locate imbalance, but it must be combined with discretion so we can adapt to different conditions. Its not about confident predictions, but rather probabilities and calculated risks. Don't become attached to positions, let the cumulative effect drive results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trader-Shah
Is the #BTC pullback over?📊Is the #BTC pullback over? ❓ 🧠From a structural point of view, the ideal target area (83223-89155) of the short structure has not been fully realized, so we need to be alert to the possibility of further decline. However, we are currently in multiple overlapping support areas, and there is the possibility of continued rebound. We need to The resistance area of ​​concern is near 98600, and we will wait patiently for new signals to appear. ☕️ ➡️We need to be cautious enough when trading against the trend. Therefore, the long orders we held near 96,000 were set to break even after locking in the main profit. In the end, the long orders were swept and we made a small profit. Let's see👀 🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Long
by wolf_king888
BTC Technical Analysis Kept SimpleThis chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) price movement on a daily timeframe with several technical indicators and key levels highlighted. Here is a breakdown of the analysis: Key Observations: 1. Price Levels: The price recently broke below the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level near $105,595, which now acts as resistance. The 100% Fibonacci level, around $94,916, is being tested and might act as support. There is a green support zone near $85,000–$95,000 that could serve as a demand area for buyers. 2. Indicators: Parabolic SAR (red dot): Indicates a bearish trend as the dot is above the price candles. On-Balance Volume (OBV): Showing a downward trend, signaling decreasing buying pressure or increasing selling volume. Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 45.05, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The RSI is trending downward, which aligns with the price drop. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): At 0.02, near the neutral line, suggesting weak inflows or a lack of strong accumulation. 3. 200-Day Moving Average (Red Line): The 200-day moving average is rising but is significantly below the current price. This could indicate that the long-term trend remains bullish despite the short-term correction. 4. Volume: Recent candles show higher volume on red candles, suggesting stronger selling pressure during the price drop. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Case: If the price holds above the $94,916 (100% Fib level) or rebounds from the support zone ($85,000–$95,000), it could trigger a bullish recovery toward $105,595 and potentially retest $108,421. A positive divergence in OBV or RSI could strengthen this case. 2. Bearish Case: If the price breaks below the 100% Fib level, the next key support lies at $85,000–$86,000. A failure to hold this zone might lead to a deeper correction toward the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level at $70,041. Summary: The price is in a short-term downtrend while approaching a significant support zone.
by vagada
Bitcoin Next TargetHello. After a long time , i have a super prediction for you... Now BTC hit a new ATH , So this is due to breaking a diagonal channel and pullback to the upper line.(Yellow channel on the chart). In addition , if we take a look at USDT dominance chart we see a breakout of a longterm channel and a trendline.so it will be reach about 3.90% - 4%. In my opinion and according to wave analysis , the shortterm target for BTC is 86000$ and the long term target is 106000$. thanks for reading my opinion. wish you to Have good investments.
Long
by TraderAmin-KZ
Possible growthETH successfully sold as from the start of the week with an anticipation to buy. However price action continued it's dips, as the bearish momentum was still strong and the previous buying zone was futile. However, after finding stability near 3,150-3,000 which is the half way point of the previous bull run, the crypto may try to find stability around this region, to gain strength for an upward growth. If the price settles below the above marks, Ethereum may still continue it's downward correction.
by Two4One4
$BTC Update-Extremely Bearish as Layered Support Fails to $92KAnother day...another updated BTC chart...🫣 Not Looking Good as layered support keeps failing. *The Shorts clearly have control of the market the past week. *Layered Bearish BTC news continues to add Fear into investors minds. *2025 Economic Uncertainty also added to The Fear Index recently. *We just bounced off The Critical Support Zone at $92K. A drop below this line would incite another major dip down to the Absolute Bottom Support Zone at GETTEX:87K ****Then if Absolute Bottom Support also fails to hold up we have no Support until $76K*** 🥶
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by GoldenRule365