Forex market
GBPJPY is Holding above the SupportHello Traders
In This Chart GBPJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today GBPJPY analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPJPY market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPJPY Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Market next move
📊 Current Analysis Summary:
Pair: USD/JPY on the 1-hour timeframe.
Bias: Bullish breakout above a minor consolidation (highlighted box).
Target: Set higher, implying continuation of upward momentum.
Arrows: Show bullish path with a minor pullback, then a breakout continuation.
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❌ Disruptive Breakdown:
🔴 1. Fake Breakout Risk
Price is testing the upper bound of the consolidation box. If this breakout fails to hold, it could trap late buyers. A rejection back inside the box might trigger a bearish reversal—a textbook bull trap scenario.
🔴 2. Volume Divergence
Despite the green breakout candle, the volume spike is not aggressive enough. If volume fails to increase further, it may suggest exhaustion, not momentum. This divergence undermines the breakout’s credibility.
🔴 3. Fundamental Uncertainty
Several U.S.-related economic icons (e.g., high-impact news) are visible. A hawkish BoJ or weaker-than-expected U.S. data could sharply reverse USD strength, causing a retracement or dump back below 145.000.
🔴 4. Overextended Short-Term Move
The steep rise could signal near-term exhaustion. RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) likely suggest overbought conditions, increasing the probability of a cool-off retracement.
🔴 5. Liquidity Grab & Drop Setup
Price might poke just above the box (to trigger stop losses and attract breakout traders), then reverse aggressively downward—a liquidity sweep or stop-hunt move before the real direction emerges.
GBPCAD: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of GBPCAD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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NZDUSD holds near 60c after the RBNZ’s cutNZDUSD has remained in a sideways trend since peaking in late April as trade tension has generally calmed down significantly and traders reevaluated probabilities for monetary policy in the second half of the year. Of the two central banks, the RBNZ seems clearly more dovish than the Fed, which creates potential headwinds for the Kiwi dollar. The normal situation before 2020 of a carry from buying seems likely to remain reversed until early next year at least.
Strong recovery in mid-late April moderated fairly quickly, with somewhat lower volume and volatility for most of May so far. The 20 SMA is a potential dynamic support but not a very strong one; the 50 SMA from Bands might be more reliable as a dynamic support. The influence of fundamentals seems generally negative and 60c looks like a strong static resistance, having been tested three times, so the upside might be limited for NZDUSD for now.
55c would be the obvious medium-term target for sellers as last month’s low, but a new downtrend from here would probably depend on the Fed’s minutes late on 28 May and American second estimate GDP the next day being received broadly positively. Traders are also looking ahead to personal consumption expenditures on Friday 30 May.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
AUD/NZD - Strong Bullish Trade Setup🔥 AUD/NZD 8H Bullish Setup – Demand Zone + Liquidity Grab
📍 Current Structure:
Price is pulling back into a refined demand zone, perfectly aligned with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
This zone also holds trendline support from the higher timeframe — strong structural confluence.
Price is forming a corrective wave, likely completing a classic ABC pattern down into demand.
📊 Volume Insight:
A volume spike at the lows hints at aggressive buying — likely institutional.
Smart money may be accumulating just before a bullish push.
📈 Play Idea:
Looking for price to react inside the 71% zone, potentially forming a bullish engulfing or BOS (break of structure).
Clear target is Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) above recent highs — that's where stops are clustered.
🧠 Confluences:
Demand Zone ✅
71% Fib Level ✅
Trendline Support ✅
Volume Spike ✅
Buy Side Liquidity Target ✅
🎯 Bias: Strongly Bullish
Waiting for a clean trigger — bullish candle confirmation or BOS.
This setup screams smart money accumulation.
Pair: GBPAUD Bias: Bullish Timeframes: Daily / 4HGBPAUD has rejected 2.07337 multiple times, confirming a key higher timeframe demand zone. We've now broken out of the bearish intraday structure and resumed the higher timeframe bullish ascent.
Entry Levels:
Aggressive buy: 2.10019
Safer buy: 2.11992
Target:
TP1: 2.15583 (previous swing high)
This setup offers 375–550 pips depending on your entry and risk appetite.
Invalidation:
Break back below 2.07337 would negate this bias.
Notes:
Best suited for swing traders.
Wait for candle confirmations on 4H or Daily closes above entry levels.
GBPUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers.
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- NVIDIA’s Q1 earnings exceeded expectations. Despite export restrictions to China under the Trump administration, NVIDIA performed strongly, boosting risk appetite in the markets.
- The May FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that Fed officials will maintain a wait-and-see approach in conducting future monetary policy.
- A U.S. federal court ruled that the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” are invalid, stating, “The tariff order is nullified and permanently prohibited,” and ordered a cancellation of all tariffs collected thus far.
This Week’s Key Economic Events
+ May 29: U.S. Q1 GDP
+ May 30: U.S. April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
As anticipated, a peak formed around the 1.35500 level, followed by a downward trend. A mid- to short-term downtrend is likely from the current range, with the next potential low expected near the 1.32000 level.
However, if the price unexpectedly breaks above the 1.36000 level, the high could extend toward the 1.40000 level, indicating a shift toward a bullish trend.
GBPUSD's Potential Trend ChangeHi there,
GBPUSD currently shows bullish potential up to 1.34000, with 1.35113 open as a target, meaning the price could reach that level if the support area holds.
Potential bearish interest lies in a break below 1.32549, targeting the area around 1.29875. However, the price may drop further to 1.2800, with a bias toward 1.26000.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not a trading advice.
MarketBreakdown | USDJPY, US100, BITCOIN, GBPJPY
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #USDJPY 4H time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵
I see a strong bullish reaction to a key daily/intraday horizontal support.
A formation of a high momentum bullish candle and a violation of a resistance line
of a bullish flag indicate a highly probable rise to higher levels.
2️⃣ #US100 #NASDAQ Index 4H time frame
I spotted one more bullish flag on US100.
Its resistance was violated yesterday and we already see
a strong buying interest.
I think that the market will rise more, at least to a current local high.
3️⃣ #BITCOIN #BTCUSD daily time frame
The price nicely respected a confluence zone based on
a rising trend line and a recently broken horizontal structure.
Probabilities will be high that the market will continue rising from that.
4️⃣ #GBPJPY daily time frame 🇬🇧🇯🇵
The price nicely respected a solid rising trend line.
I see a breakout attempt of a minor daily horizontal resistance.
IF a daily candle closes above that, it will provide a strong bullish confirmation.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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GBPUSD1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (as of recent data, driven by strong UK retail sales and elevated long-term yields).
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 21, 2025, reflecting fiscal concerns and Fed rate cut expectations).
2. Interest Rate Differential (IRD)
The yield spread between UK and US 10-year bonds is:4.77%(GBP)−4.54% (USD)=+0.23%
4.77% (GBP)−4.54% (USD)=+0.23%
This modest differential favors the British pound, as UK bonds offer a slightly higher return than US Treasuries.
3. Carry Trade Advantage
The +0.23% yield spread makes it marginally attractive for investors to borrow in USD (lower yield) and invest in GBP-denominated assets (higher yield).
However, the narrow spread limits significant carry trade profits compared to higher-yielding currency pairs.
GBP strength is further supported by strong UK economic data (e.g., April retail sales up 1.2% MoM) and easing UK-EU trade barriers.
4. Key Factors Influencing the Differential
Bank of England Policy: The BoE cut rates to 4.25% in May 2025 but maintains a cautious stance. Further cuts could pressure gilt yields lower.
Federal Reserve Outlook: Markets price in two Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which may reduce the US yield advantage.
UK Fiscal Risks: High public debt levels (30-year gilt yields >5.5%) and potential fiscal pressures could weigh on GBP if investor confidence wanes.
Summary Table
Metric UK (GBP) US (USD)
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.54%
Interest Rate Differential +0.23% (GBP over USD) —
Carry Trade Appeal Modest, supported by GBP strength —
Conclusion
The 0.23% yield advantage for GBP provides limited carry trade incentives, but stronger UK economic data and technical bullishness in GBP/USD reinforce near-term GBP strength.
UK fiscal sustainability: Elevated long-term yields pose risks to growth and currency stability.
While the carry trade offers marginal gains, GBP’s upside is primarily driven by macroeconomic outperformance and reduced trade barriers with the EU.
#GBPUSD
AUDUSD BULLISH RUNAUDUSD is expected to buy to complete the Deep crab pattern. With higher than expected CPI figures AUD is expected to bully the green-back which is struggling with low interest rate figures as a result of declining inflation figures nearing its 2024 inflation target of 2% and global trade wars.
expecting AUDUSD to hit around0.66000 psychological level
AUDUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- U.S. President Trump stated that “he received reports that the EU has reached out to quickly schedule talks,” calling it “a positive development.”
- The Japanese yen strengthened as speculation grows that the Ministry of Finance may reduce the issuance of long-term government bonds.
- The U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index came in at 98, significantly beating market expectations of 87.1.
Major Economic Events This Week
+ May 28: FOMC Meeting Minutes
+ May 29: U.S. Q1 GDP
+ May 30: U.S. April Core PCE Price Index
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
The pair is currently showing limited movement between the 0.64000–0.65000 range, suggesting a wait-and-see market stance. However, as higher lows are being formed, a potential upward trend appears likely. The projected resistance level is around 0.69000. Unless the price breaks below the support line at 0.63000, we will continue to view the outlook as bullish.
EUR_AUD WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅EUR_AUD price grew again
To retest the resistance of 1.7640
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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GBPAUD Wave Analysis: Is a Rally to 2.13677 on the Horizon?Hey Realistic Traders!
Can $OANDA: GBPAUD Keep the Bull Run Alive? Let’s Break It Down...
Trend Analysis
On the H4 timeframe, GBPAUD has broken out of a double bottom pattern, signaling a shift from a short-term bearish trend to a bullish one. Bullish momentum is further confirmed by price action trading above the EMA-200 line. On the higher timeframe, a falling wedge breakout pattern supports the bullish continuation scenario, aligning with the broader wave structure.
Wave Analysis
Applying Elliott Wave theory, the recent price action suggests the completion of Wave 2 around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, aligning with the neckline breakout of the double bottom pattern. The potential formation of Wave 3, typically the strongest and most impulsive wave, targets 2.10265 as the first extension level with a further extension to 2.13677, calculated using Fibonacci extensions of the current bullish wave.
The outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above the key stop-loss level at 2.04774, invalidating the Wave 3 setup if breached.
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Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GBPAUD.
GBP_AUD PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
b]✅GBP_AUD has retested
A resistance level of 2.1036
And we are seeing a bearish reaction
With the price going down so we are
Bearish biased now and we will be
Expecting the pair to go further down
SHORT🔥
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GBPUSD Will Fall! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.355.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.336.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Time to buy some Aussie Dollars The weekly chart shows that the worst may be over for the Aussie dollars after suffering a huge sell down on 31/03/25, going down below 0.60, revisiting the low of 20/4/20 candle.
I am more in favour of catching the up or downtrend but not necessarily the beginning of it since that is more of a luck than skill, imo. So, with a good risk/reward ratio, the US dollar losing its value , people are dumping US bonds , spiking yields to 5% and possibly higher , it is ripe to go LONG on the Aussie dollars.
Best of luck and see you at 0.67 level.
As usual, please DYODD
USD/MXN Short Trade SetupA clean rejection is observed from the bearish order block zone between 19.27627 – 19.25936, aligning perfectly with a descending trendline resistance. Price has reacted to this premium level with clear signs of selling pressure.
This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity with the entry positioned at 19.25930, targeting the next support zone near 19.20593. The stop is placed safely above the OB and structural high at 19.27747 to protect against liquidity sweeps.
This trade aligns with recent price action confirming bearish intent at premium supply.
📍 Entry: 19.25930
🎯 Take Profit: 19.20593
🛑 Stop Loss: 19.27747
⚖️ Risk-Reward: ~3R