GBPUSD – Can The Rollercoaster Price Action Continue? GBPUSD – Can The Rollercoaster Price Action Continue?
What a difference a day can make to market expectations and positioning. GBPUSD was riding high around 1.2720 late Wednesday afternoon on the back of stronger UK wage growth and inflation (CPI) readings from earlier in the week, creating some uncertainty about what its next directional move maybe.
Then, enter the Federal Reserve (Fed), who cut interest rates 25bps (0.25%) last night, as expected, but provided a more cautious assessment for their approach in 2025. Chairman Powell emphasised that the US central bank doesn’t need to be as quick to act with rate cuts moving forward until they see more progress on inflation falling to their 2% target.
This saw a rush to buy dollars again, which in turn sent GBPUSD sharply lower below 1.26.
So, what’s next for the pound, as traders need to contend with the Bank of England (BoE) rate decision at 1200 GMT today.
No change to interest rates is expected due to the stubborn inflation readings received this week, but the direction of the voting on the committee and accompanying statement may give an insight into their thinking regarding rate cuts in 2025. All of which could add to the rollercoaster price action of GBPUSD into the weekend.
So, with the potential for GBPUSD volatility moving forward, what are the possible chart levels to consider?
Possible Support Levels to Watch
Coming into this BoE meeting, GBPUSD has already seen price weakness emerge following the more hawkish Fed. This has seen breaks below support at 1.2611, which is equal to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November/December strength.
While this move lower doesn’t guarantee further price weakness, the next support to consider may be marked by the November 22nd low at 1.2490, and if this support was to be broken following the Bank of England rate decision, it may be possible that GBPUSD could test support at the May low of 1.2449.
How About Resistance?
To the upside we can potentially use the Fibonacci retracement of the December price weakness to gauge possible resistance levels,. The 38.2% retracement stands at 1.2657 and traders may well be watching how well this resistance level, if tested, is defended by fresh selling interest.
If this upside level was to break, it may increase the possibility of a more prolonged recovery, at which point, risks may turn towards tests of the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at 1.2715.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
