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USDJPY Long after retracement to FIB level.After a short holiday and the fuss of the US elections and the FED decision I started looking for positions. I just entered at market buying the USDJPY at 152.68 SL 151.50 and TP 155.50. There was an impulse wave breaking to the upside and has retraced back down to the 0.618 fibonacci level probably due to intervention comments from the BoJ The Market seems to favour the Trump victory and this has supported the USD and stocks hence this trade idea. P.S. I shall decide later today whether to hold this trade open over the weekend. P.P.S. China all be releasing data over the weekend so be aware if you are trading AUD or NZD.
Long
by ratcatcher
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Long
by Thief_Trader
CADJPY at strong resistance in the Daily chartHistorical context: +60% up since 2020 The CAD/JPY pair has demonstrated a remarkable upward trajectory since March 2020, recording an impressive increase of over 60%. This surge can be partly attributed to Japan's prolonged monetary policy, which maintained negative interest rates while many other countries raised their rates to combat inflation following the pandemic. Recently, the Bank of Japan signalled a significant shift in its monetary policy, indicating its intention to begin raising interest rates. This development has provided a boost to the Japanese Yen. The current pullback represents the sharpest decline observed since the onset of the uptrend in 2020, potentially signalling a change in market direction. This analysis will delve into the recent price action, loss of key support levels, and critical areas to monitor. Technical Perspective: Key Indicators Break Below the 200-Period Moving Average The recent breach below the 200-period moving average signifies a weakening uptrend. This movement suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing direction, accompanied by increasing selling pressure. The 200-period moving average is often regarded as a critical threshold separating bull markets from bear markets, making a drop below this level particularly significant. Accelerating Downward Movement The decline observed between 10 July and 5 August marks the steepest drop in CAD/JPY since 2020. Most notably, this downturn has effectively engulfed all gains made by CAD/JPY over the previous 12 months. The acceleration of this downward movement underscores significant selling interest in the pair. Fibonacci Analysis and Price Structure Following the breakout of the SMA200 on the daily chart, the price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend. The 50% level is often viewed as a critical area of interest that can present opportunities aligned with the primary trend. The confluence of the 50% level with the 200-period moving average marks a pivotal point for sellers at this juncture. Possible Sell Scenario Given the breach of the 200-period moving average and the prevailing price structure indicating a potential reversal, a selling opportunity may arise if the pair continues to exhibit weakness. A sell signal could be triggered if the price breaks below the uptrend line on the daily chart (highlighted in black). Initial targets for this sell-off could include the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 105.7, with an extended target around the 103.00 region. A stop loss should be established if the price demonstrates a clear breakout above the range defined by the 50% Fibonacci level and the SMA200 on the daily chart, situated around 111.20. The CAD/JPY pair is beginning to exhibit signs of exhaustion following a prolonged uptrend. The breach below the 200-period moving average and the testing of Fibonacci levels suggest a potential period of correction or reversal ahead. Close monitoring of price action around the 108.229 and 110.258 levels will be crucial in validating any potential short entries. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
Japan’s consumer spending slips, yen extends gainsThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.38, down 0.36% on the day. The yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride this week, plunging 2% on Wednesday and rebounding on Thursday with a 1.1% gain. Japan’s household spending fell by 1.1% y/y in September, following a 1.9% drop in August. This was better than the market estimate of -2.1%. Household spending has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, as consumer confidence fell in October and inflation is relatively high. On a monthly basis, household spending decreased 1.3%, after a strong 2% gain in August. This beat the market estimate of 0.7%. The weak yen is also weighing on consumers, who are being squeezed as their purchasing power has fallen. The yen fell to three-month lows this week against the dollar and if the downswing continues, the Bank of Japan will be under pressure to respond with a rate hike. Although consumers are holding tight on the purse strings, wages have been rising and the BoJ is hopeful that will translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Consumer spending makes up more than half of the economy and BoJ is unlikely to make further rate hikes until it sees stronger consumer spending. The markets don’t expect a rate hike until early 2025. The Federal Reserve didn’t surprise anyone with a 25-basis point rate cut on Wednesday. This is the second cut in the easing cycle after an oversized 50-bp chop in September. The vote was unanimous and unlike the Bank of Japan, the Fed has been transparent and telegraphed its plan to cut rates ahead of the meeting. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the coming meeting and will be keeping a close eye on inflation and employment reports. USD/JPY faces resistance at 153.44 and 154.17 152.16 and 151.43 are the next support levels
by OANDA
NZD CHF BuyThe New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is generally considered a higher yielding currency. It is dependent on the export of agricultural and other resources. New Zealand's strong economic performance and rising commodity prices often lead to increased demand for the NZD. If the economic data from New Zealand is positive, this could have a positive effect on the currency. However, the Swiss franc (CHF) is known as a "safe haven currency," which investors seek in times of economic instability. If there is stability in the global economy, the CHF could weaken as capital shifts to higher yielding assets, including the NZD.
Long
by ForexCompany