CADJPY shortLooking at a level on CADJPY. Possible short around a 4hr 61.8% retracement and downtrend line with RSI divergence.
For the longer term position I'd like to see the recent low and counter trendline broken to confirm the reversal of the counter trend, also accompanied by volume profiles printing lower POC's.
Current daily profiles aren't providing too much in the way of a reversal other than a previous b shape and a double distribution on yesterdays profile. This double distribution could provide us with a shorter term, possibly intra day short target, as seen in the screenshot.
JPY - The BoJ currently have a 71% probability of a rate hike in their May meeting with inflation holding above their target rate although they have stated they will be cautious adjusting their monetary policy amid global trade risks. Their labour market remains fairly strong with low unemployment and a high level of job openings
CAD - The BoC has cut rates at a much faster pace than other central banks, 7 cut from the high of 5% to the current rate of 2.75%. In their recent policy statement however, they have stated they'll take a more cautious approach going forward as their YoY CPI increased from 1.9% to 2.6%, the highest level in 8 months. A weaker reading in upcoming inflation and/or employment metrics would help to tilt the scales more in favour of a dovish BoC.
Potential risks - Continuing rise in oil prices might prop up the CAD and risks around Trumps tariffs could push back on central banks to make an definitive moves in upcoming rate decisions.
