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Bearish reversal?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 86.38 1st Support: 84.37 1st Resistance: 87.07 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
GBP/USD Weekly zone!The price is currently located at a strong weekly zone, where sellers have their stop-losses placed above it, and buyers have pending buy orders just above the same level. This creates a high probability that big players will push the price above the zone to trigger the stop-losses of sellers and activate the buy positions of those waiting to enter long. What almost always happens next is the following: The price then drops back below the zone, taking out the buyers as well. That’s why at strong zones on higher timeframes, a false breakout is often expected.
Short
by EliteFxAcademy
EURJPY Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025 - EURJPY reversed from key support level 161.40 - Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00 EURJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 161.40 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of April), coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band The upward reversal from the support level 161.40 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Long Legged Doji. EURJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 165.00, which has been reversing the price from last November.
Long
by FxProGlobal
Trump tariffs spark market jitters....again | FX ResearchAsian markets have shown mixed performance on this Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessant announced plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio this summer, potentially lowering government borrowing costs by enabling banks to trade more treasuries, while dismissing concerns about rising US bond yields. However, US fiscal challenges persist with deficits over 6% of GDP and a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio—historically stabilised only by high inflation or asset bubbles—raising doubts about sustainable debt reduction without fiscal reform. President Trump's recent moves, including a 50% tariff on European goods, a 25% levy on foreign smartphones, and the blocking of international students at Harvard, continue to fuel market uncertainty, amplified by US and UK market closures for public holidays. Key US data this week includes the FOMC minutes, GDP estimates, and the core PCE price index. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
USD-CAD Bearish Bias! Sell! Hello,Traders! USD-CAD is trading in a Downtrend and the pair Made a bearish breakout Of the key horizontal level Of 1.3774 which is now a Resistance and the pair is Making a local pullback To retest the new resistance From where we will be Expecting a further Bearish continuation Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GBPAUD…being the best is a mindset!!Good day traders, I am back again with another great setup and again another opportunity to learn something new. On the daily TF on GBpAUD we still in a bearish structure and if we use the 2022 model, we had a structure shift lower and now that price is retesting the OTE entry levels we can now expect price to shoot lower, before you asked about the recent FVG on 4H TF. That newly formed BISI is that candle that created the BPR and from what I’ve learned is that price normally shoots past BPR’s. My poll of liquidity is resting below(weekly), that Ray line makes weekly represents previous week’s low which we want to see the market get to. Just on top of that ray line we have a FVG that price left open, we also wanna see price fill that FVG fully.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
3
Momentum builds in GBP/USD and NZD/USD following tariff delayThe U.S. dollar weakened sharply in recent sessions as President Trump's announcement that the proposed 50% tariffs on EU imports will now be delayed until July 9, giving markets temporary relief. GBP/USD edged toward 1.3600, testing levels last seen three years ago. The RSI sits just under 60, suggesting there’s still room before overbought conditions are reached. Volume has been gradually increasing, potentially reinforcing the strength of the breakout. Risk-on flows also lifted the Australian and New Zealand dollars. NZD/USD has broken above the Ichimoku cloud and rose 0.62% on the day. Price is well above the Tenkan-sen (blue) and Kijun-sen (red), indicating strong upward momentum. However, the pair is pulling back slightly after the sharp breakout, suggesting short-term consolidation.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/CHF Technical Outlook – Bullish Reversal in Play! 📅 Chart Date: May 26, 2025 💱 Pair: NZD/CHF 📈 Current Price: 0.49246 📏 Indicators Used: 🔵 200 EMA: 0.50959 🔴 50 EMA: 0.49424 📍 Key Technical Levels: 🟣 Reversal Point (Support Zone): 0.4880 – 0.4930 This zone has shown consistent buying interest. The price recently bounced off this level, indicating strong bullish sentiment forming here. 🟪 Resistance Zone: 0.5080 – 0.5160 This area has previously capped upside movement. It's aligned near the 200 EMA – a significant dynamic resistance. 📈 Bullish Setup Active! 🐂 The price action shows a strong bullish reaction off the reversal zone. There's a potential higher low forming, indicating a trend reversal. The price is currently reclaiming the 50 EMA – a bullish sign when followed by strong candles. If momentum continues, we could see a target retest of the resistance zone around 0.51+ 🔝 ⚠️ Watch Out: A rejection from the 50 EMA may lead to another dip toward the support zone. Bearish confirmation only below 0.4880 with strong volume 🔻 📌 Conclusion: This chart suggests a bullish momentum building up in NZD/CHF. As long as price holds above the reversal zone, we can expect a push toward the resistance area. A break above 0.5160 would confirm a medium-term trend reversal. 📈🔥 💡 Traders Tip: Consider entries above 0.4945 with SL below 0.4880 and TP around 0.5080–0.5160. 🎯
Long
by MrStellanSight
2
NZDUSD 3MONTHS CHARTNZD/USD Interest Rate Differential, 10-Year Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–30, 2025) Current 10-Year Bond Yields New Zealand 10-Year Bond Yield: 4.70% (as of May 21, 2025) . US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 22, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential (IRD) The yield spread between New Zealand and US 10-year bonds is:4.70%(NZD)−4.54%(USD)=+0.16% the 4.70% (NZD)−4.54% (USD)=+0.16% This modest differential slightly favors the New Zealand dollar, creating a limited carry trade opportunity. Carry Trade Advantage Investors can borrow USD at lower US rates and invest in higher-yielding NZD assets, earning the 0.16% yield spread. The strategy is supported by New Zealand’s elevated bond yields despite recent Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate cuts. However, the narrow spread reduces potential returns compared to higher-yielding currency pairs. Key Events and Risks (May 25–30, 2025) RBNZ Monetary Policy Meeting (May 27–28): Markets expect a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50% , which could pressure NZD yields lower and narrow the IRD. Further easing signals may weaken NZD, offsetting carry trade gains. US Economic Data and Fed Policy: US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speeches could influence USD strength. Traders currently price in five Fed rate cuts by year-end , which may limit USD upside. China Trade Dynamics: New Zealand’s trade ties with China (its largest partner) make NZD sensitive to US-China trade tensions. Progress in tariff negotiations could support NZD . Summary Table Metric New Zealand (NZD) United States (USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.70% 4.54% Interest Rate Differential +0.16% (NZD over USD) — Carry Trade Appeal Modest, but narrowing — Conclusion The 0.16% yield advantage for NZD over USD provides a limited carry trade opportunity. However, the upcoming RBNZ rate cut (May 27–28) and potential Fed easing could narrow the spread further. NZD/USD remains vulnerable to: RBNZ policy: Further rate cuts may reduce NZD’s yield appeal. US-China trade developments: Escalating tensions could pressure NZD due to its reliance on Chinese trade. While the carry trade offers marginal gains, traders should prioritize risk management amid volatility from central bank decisions and geopolitical risks.
by Shavyfxhub
USDJPY Bearish Continuation Setup Trend Analysis The market is in a clear downtrend, evidenced by the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The descending trendline has been respected multiple times, acting as dynamic resistance. 🧠 Key Technical Factors Rejection Zone (Supply Area): The marked “Rejection Point” aligns with the confluence of the trendline resistance, 50 EMA (red), and historical supply. Price attempted to break above but faced a strong rejection—signaling institutional sell interest. EMA Confluence: 50 EMA (142.993) and 200 EMA (144.063) are both sloping downward. Price is trading below both EMAs, confirming bearish momentum and trend continuation bias. BOS (Break of Structure): Multiple BOS levels marked, showing a consistent pattern of structure breaks to the downside. Each rally is met with selling pressure, failing to create new highs. 🧩 Projected Price Action Current retracement could retest the trendline/50 EMA before a potential continuation move downward. Expectation is a lower high formation near the descending trendline followed by a bearish impulse. 🏹 Bias: Bearish Traders might consider short opportunities around the 142.90–143.00 zone, targeting 142.00 and below, with stops just above the trendline/supply zone. ⚠️ Risk Note A clean break and close above the trendline and 50 EMA would invalidate this setup and could lead to a shift in structure.
Short
by MrStellanSight
6
USDJPY Demand Zone Consolidation. Wait for BRT Above or BelowIf CMP crosses above top zone and closes on 1H chart, take the Buy Retest. If CMP crosses below the bottom zone and closes on the 1H chart, take the Sell Retest. Go for 1:1 risk to reward MINIMUM. This strategy is 7-8 out of 10 (70-80%) but can produce upwards of 90% accuracy. Be patient. Be disciplined. Be consistent. 30 pips SL // 30 pips TP *This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, do not over leverage. Risk only what you are willing to lose.* If you are actively monitoring your trade, you can remove your TP once price goes into profit and start a trailing stop! At 10 pips, move your SL into profit at 2-3 pips to break even. If price goes to 20 pips in profit, set your SL at 10 pips of profit. You are more than welcome to accept the full SL (risk) and let the trade play out. SET IT AND FORGET IT. Take partials at structural pivot points (aka swing highs and swing lows) if you hold the winning trade longer than original TP! Happy trading! #HiddenWealthSociety #HWS
by KyleBFrederick