SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Memorial Weekend RisksThis EOD update is to help you try to position for the risks associated with a further breakdown in price trends over the lone Memorial Day weekend.
I know this video will be posted late in the day - but I want you to learn how to hedge against risks and try to learn to take your profits when they are THERE.
This is a really quick video.
Stay safe this weekend and thank you to all our VETS for your service and sacrifices.
We honor you this weekend.
GET SOME.
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ETF market
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-23 : Carryover PatternLooking at the charts today, I want to say that it certainly looks like the SPY Cycle Patterns are blending into a consolidated CRUSH/BOTTOM pattern (see the weekend patterns) today and possibly "carrying over" into the early trading next week.
I have been warning of a pending rollover/breakdown in this uptrend for weeks. Today's breakdown seems a bit aggressive, but it is what it is.
If the patterns are consolidating/blending into a bigger breakdown over the Memorial Day weekend, then we could be looking at a very big downward/rotational move in the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin over the next 5+ trading days while Gold/Silver continue to rally.
Silver is lagging Gold right now, but I don't think that lasts. Once Gold gets back above $3400, I believe Silver will start to make a big move higher.
The big question in my mind is - how does this carry into Monday's holiday trading schedule and into Tuesday's OPEN?
I'll have to see how things play out today - but it certainly looks like I'll be adding some SPREADS to potentially catch any big move over this weekend.
GET SOME.
This could play out exceptionally well for skilled traders.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
TLT Is Yelling at UsYou typically see a migration to TLT when people are looking for a safe haven from troubled markets
I posted about TLT previously and thought we were about to see a rush to the trade because of potential market weakness
Well as we know this Bull market continued to show legs and subsequently TLT has been grounded on the launching pad
The market is yet again showing classic signs of topping
Are we saying that the market is about to crash? NO..not yet
What we are saying is that liquidity is leaving the equities markets in droves and TLT will most likely be a place where that liquidity finds a home
So pay close attention to TLT over the next 6 months because its going to tell you everything you need to know about this bull market
QQQ What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on QQQ and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 521.53 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 492.15
Safe Stop Loss - 535.10
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Repeat of Late Apr-May lows & rallyThe chart shows the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on a 1-hour timeframe, with a pattern appearing to be repeating itself from late April/May(Liberation day announcements) dip and then boot and rally from trade announcements, all marked by colored lines.
The colored lines (blue, red, purple) highlight a recurring price action setup. Each set of lines seems to mark a sequence of movements:
Blue: Sharp drop, then gap up
Red: Consolidation at a lower higher from gap up, return to high, consolidation back lower at previous lower high
Purple: Breakout & reversal upward.
SPY Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with AMEX:SPY bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
Neutral - GLD (Short-term) & Short (Long-term)A. Short-term: NEUTRAL
Daily chart pattern: Double top
RSI: Close to 50. Needs to cross 50 to turn bullish momentum
1. Double top confirmation
- Fib 0.382 rejects at $299.85
-> Enter PUT option for PT: ~$280.5
2. Failed double top
- Pass fib 0.382 at $299.85 to gap up
-> Enter CALL option for PT1: ~$303
PT2: ~306.5
B.Long-term: PUT
Overall long-term opinion: LEAP PUT for GLD with expiration date more than 1 year. PT: ~200
$QQQ to $538 then one more leg down?Despite the bearish move in QQQ today, I still think there's another move higher.
I think it's likely that we go and retest the ATHs at $538 (so another 5% or so up) and then we find resistance there and start one last move down to $318-$383.
Only after we see another leg down, do we see new highs. Marked off support levels to the downside.
Invalidation of the idea would be flipping $538 as support.
BITX — Harmonic Completion: Expression in Time for point ‘D’CBOE:BITX
I wanted to share my concept of fibonacci retracement in time with the community and why I selected the 86.6% retracement of this sell off for point ‘D’ within my harmonic structure with an exit and completion of today.
This was a 45 day sell off after the first ‘W’ price distribution from the top. I always decide on a pivot candle to start my retracement off the impulse rally. Doesn’t matter if it is bullish or bearish by nature. When point ‘B’ was created it extended past the 23.6% value but fell short of 50% where it continued to sell down below the original impulse rally. When CBOE:BITX pivoted at point ‘C’ we had a confirmation of retracement anywhere from .886-1.13 for how I read fibonacci levels.
Next I run the ‘A-B-C Trend-Based Time’ tool and input my extensions. You will find when I build my ‘Fibonacci Triangle’ I run .382-.786 symmetrically in price/time, but for my harmonics I use extension in time to locate my point ‘D’ and pair that with my retracement level. You can see in my chart above that there is daily significance more often than not on these days. I tend to run my X-A-B-C-D tool to the harmonic extension zones in time and track the trend. This example above, it was the 86.6% retracement of a 45 sell off that executed on the 141% value in time from that sell off.
Feel me?
If you like the conversation, drop a boost and give a follow! Let’s talked price and time fibonacci symmetry. I always get down on historical volatility as well with my weighted system to ever sliding IV — Come find me, let’s go!
Using Historical Volatility and HarmonicsI track bi-weekly, monthly, and quarterly volatility to have a feel for how trending markets elasticity is and I weight this volatility percentage to the ever sliding IV environment and calculate an implied range for the week.
This helps me gauge the weekly candle potential.
Here you see my HV10/21/63 implied ranges for the week listed from my spreadsheet and visualized on the daily perspective of CBOE:BITX -- What I would like to point out entering the week as this run will begin to cool off, is the confluence around $60.00 with HV63 regression and 'Point D' completion of my harmonic shown.
I hope everyone has a great week. If you like to talk volatility and enjoy fibonacci drop me a comment.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of MSTZ
From K1 to K3,
It is a bullish three soldiers advancing pattern,
But unfortunately, it still failed to close upon a nearest resistance.
K3 start with a bull gap and break up a downtrend line of a large scale consolidation range.
If the following candles break up the resistance or consolidate around it,
It will be a good place to buy it there.
On the other hand,
If the following candles successfully retest the downtrend line,
It is also a good place to buy it then.
Long-4.75/Stop-4.35/Target-10
Russel 2000 Weekly PotentailVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with AMEX:IWM you can see that last week trending bi-weekly markets were more volatile than our monthly trending values. This could indicate regression to quarterly means, but for now shows a 15.02% premium advantage over current IV per move.
Bi-weekly, is as of now, only 10.81% off it's quarterly trend. However, it's important to observe that volatility can still consolidate under monthly in a poetic dance to coil up the monthly more on it's path in regression.
This is why in my charts you will notice a 'coiling' value under both HV10 and HV21 values.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
QQQ Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with NASDAQ:QQQ we see that the shorter term trending volatility is resonating like SP:SPX and AMEX:SPY just under our monthly values. Range seems to be expanding allowing for cheaper premium capture per move happening. With any luck, we reflect and increase in volatility with up to quarterly means.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
iBIT Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
Now we move on to the world of BTC with a look at NASDAQ:IBIT
Here, as we have been observing an ongoing regression, you see that HV10 has expanded past HV21 and now IV is predicting more range expansion leading toward the volatility at quarterly means. Stay tuned, and I hope this helps visualize what I do.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
BITx Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
Now we move on to the world of BTC with a look at CBOE:BITX
Here, as we have been observing an ongoing regression, you see that HV10 has expanded past HV21 and now IV is predicting more range expansion leading toward the volatility at quarterly means. Stay tuned, and I hope this helps visualize what I do.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!