SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown. TA for July 14SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown – What to Watch This Week 🧨
🔸 GEX-Based Options Sentiment (Tanuki GEX Zone)
* GEX Summary:
* Highest Call Wall (Resistance): 625–628 → strong resistance zone.
* Highest Put Wall (Support): 618 → major gamma defense line.
* GEX Flip Zone / NETGEX Support: around 620, where negative gamma begins accelerating downside moves.
* Current GEX Bias: Bearish
* GEX: 🔴
* IVR: 9.8 (very low)
* PUTs %: 51.1% (risk off bias)
* Call walls stack above, forming a clear ceiling.
* Interpretation & Options Strategy:
* As long as SPY trades below 625, the call resistance stack and bearish gamma exposure favor PUT buyers.
* Breakdown below 620 may trigger an acceleration to 617 and even 615 where deeper PUT walls exist.
* Avoid calls until SPY reclaims and holds 626.88+.
* ✅ Suggested Options Play (Bearish Bias):
* PUT 620p / 618p, 0DTE–2DTE if under 623.
* Stop if price holds and reclaims 625.50+ with volume.
🟦 1H Chart Analysis – Price Action, SMC, and Trade Setups
* Market Structure:
* After the recent BOS, price formed a tight rising wedge, then broke CHOCH and now sits inside a retest box.
* This shows distribution behavior and vulnerability to breakdown.
* A clear CHOCH + BOS sequence is already completed on the 1H.
* Current Range & Zones:
* Consolidation Box: 621.50–625.50
* Trendline Support (lower channel): 621–620
* Demand Zone (H1): 617–618
* Critical Liquidity Below: 615–613.50
* Trade Setup – Scalp/Swing View:
Bearish Scenario (More Likely):
* 🔻 Entry: Under 623 with confirmation
* 📉 Target 1: 620
* 📉 Target 2: 617.50
* ❌ SL: 625.50
* 📈 Optional hedge/reversal: Flip long if 626.88 reclaims (very aggressive).
* Bullish Scenario (Low Probability unless reclaim):
* ✅ Entry: Above 627
* 🎯 Target 1: 629–630
* ❌ SL: Below 625
🧠 Final Thoughts:
* SPY is currently sitting in a gamma trap zone, where it’s pinned between major put support (620) and call resistance (625+).
* If price slips below 620, gamma forces could rapidly drive it to 617–615 zone.
* Until we see strength above 626.88, the path of least resistance remains down.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk properly before trading.
