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Spy.. The wedgesRemember this, when it comes to technical analysis, anything that goes up really fast form's a rising wedge most of the time and anything that drops quickly form's a falling wedge. The Spy has risen 12% since April 21 and after this week i we will give half back and head to 533-535. As you know market goes no where without tech.. So I'll just show you the proce action of the biggest tech sectors AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLC NASDAQ:SMH And lastly NASDAQ:QQQ A big red flag in addition to that wedge is the RSI Divergence since April 23 shown on qqq 1hour rsi Seeing Divergence is like noticing Ball tires; you don't know the exact date the tires will bust but you know it's coming and you just hope your aren't driving (In calls). This is Qqq daily chart.. 200sma purple line Red line 20sma We closed right below 200 day but we are 7% away from the 20sma.. qqq usually extended 4-5% from the 20sma before retesting it. So long story short stay away from tech calls ! 2 reasons I think the Spy can make another high this week. 1. Vix still has a gap to close at 21.50 Fallen wedge here, not surprising, vix pattern is usually opposite of spy. I think an explosive moves comes soon here 2. Dow jones , XLF and IWM have the April 2nd liberation day gap to close .. The dow jones gap is 2% wide, that means another 800pts up. You ever seen the dow pump 800pts and the Spy not go up? Me neither So I think unless Spy breaks back below 560 early in the week we could melt up to 572-575. With no big tech earnings that pop up would likely come from FOMC wed.. Whatever intra week high the market makes, I don't think it will close near it.. what I mean is, let's say Spy spike to 572 wed I think we will close the week 560 or lower Becareful Swinging calls, with all these tech sectors showing a rising wedge I'm sure some of these tech names reporting will disappoint. Lots of low volume chop early in the week.. count me out until Wed Bigger picture Unless we break 530 we aren't headed to 510.. if we break below 510 then 495 will come.. below 495 is death If we close the week above 585 somehow then we are headed back to 610 Lastly Es 4hour chart Cleanest look here. Yellow trendline represents higher lows. When we break rising wedge I will short to Yellow trendline
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
11
Bitcoin (BITX) getting ready for a parabolic move? Here is a chart of probably my favorite swing trade for the year. I am keeping it simple with this chart though. I am a firm believer in simple when it comes to trading. I think the previous descension and breakout is playing out very similarly to the current one. Both had a double top rejecting from their respective trendlines following the initial breaks of structure. BITX is currently making its second tap of the the trendline. If it plays out like the previous structure did that would suggest w could see one more low in store. I don't believe this to be the case but if it is this run could be postponed until the end summer/beginning of fall. I think it is more important to point out the relative strength in Bitcoin as of late, the weakness in the US dollar, as well as global liquidity having broke out months ago. I think the most likely scenario is a pullback from this point which will be followed by a higher low printing. I will say I also expect this pullback to be steeper than the one from the previous descension. Bitcoin and Indices are a lot more overextended than they were last time around and the structure in indices is a lot weaker than before. All this being said I am expecting a breakout to occur over the next several weeks just based off probabilities. It all depends on if BTC and indices and hold their respective demand/support levels. Bitcoin needs to hold 85k in order for a summer breakout to occur. For the S&P equivalent level this could be somewhere around 5200-5300. If these assets are not able to hold these levels my confidence will shift pretty dramatically. I would still expect a major rally to take place around the Q4 timeframe but I would be expecting a lot less upside. Price would likely have to chop around for a while before deciding if it wants to continue to the upside. I am basing this off market structure/Dow theory. It is important to take all possibilities into account and ultimately let the charts do the talking.
CBOE:BITXLong
by ChazzyFreshh
3
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 542.79 Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
1
SP500 ETF: Fibonacci MappingAs you may know, Williams Fractals indicator identifies potential reversal points by marking a high (or low) surrounded by two lower highs (or higher lows) on each side, forming a five-bar pattern that signals possible turning points in price. Unfortunately, the simplicity of such indicator provides just tiny perspective, undermining broad implication of the concept. Before I begin diving into processing geometric narrative of emerging price via fibonacci channels, I want to explain how I interpret fractals. When I use the term "fractal", I'm not just talking about the points alone. Market continuously corrects itself, so analyzing it by price alone can bring more confusion than help. The object of observation shouldn't be limited to quantifying just by a single property. Chaos by default requires awareness from both price and time aspects. The easiest way to root it in my vision was through realization that price is a function of trading time intervals. Its activity can be described as cyclical progression, as if it is wired by multiple "springs" of different tensions. Classic TA patterns known to literally anyone are great for anticipating a move in surface level forecasts. Since my line of work focuses on prediction over forecasts, it requires deeper structural awareness behind complex oscillations. Let's observe the way selloff scales from ATH and how it impacts fractal hierarchy. The first corrective bullish wave can be explained as a reaction to initial impulsive bearish wave. The bigger scale drop from ATH to a lower point explains why the corrective bullish wave looks the way it is. And so on: In fractals, scaling laws describe how key properties change with size, typically following power-law relationships that reflect the structure’s self-similarity, where a characteristic scales with the size raised to an exponent. To build a probabilistic model, we must keep in mind how the smaller bits make up bigger scale picture. ATH, established bottom and angle of progression defined by pullback highs, all those points have structural weight. Since psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it's fair to use Fibonacci Channels to map the geometry of interconnectedness. Similarly, all of those points can be referred by another fibonacci channel with opposite direction. From my perspective, traditional TA patterns reflect just phases of cycle, this is why I unify those fragments into broader scalable shapes. This distinctive branch of Fractal Analysis allows to track systematic aspects of market behavior and explains how a pattern replicates itself in rhythmic continuity.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
QQQ Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the QQQ next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 488.86 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 463.87 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
SPY: Bear Market Rally Near Completion?Wavervanir DSS | April 30, 2025 SPY is approaching a critical reversal zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (~$563.33), following a sharp bounce from the March lows at $481.80. Price is now testing overhead supply from a prior breakdown, and a rejection here aligns with both technical exhaustion and deteriorating macro conditions. 🔍 Technical Breakdown Resistance Zone: $563.33 (Fib 0.786) – Strong potential reversal point. Bearish Targets: $500 (Fib 0.786 from Jan–Mar leg) $481.80 (prior low) $431.45 (Fib 1.382 extension) Structure: ABC corrective wave likely playing out with lower highs forming. Volume: Momentum on the rally is weakening—bearish divergence setting in. 🧠 Macro Alignment Sticky Inflation and high real yields persist. Fed expected to hold rates steady in May (no pivot). Earnings and forward guidance remain mixed, with cracks showing in consumer credit and regional banks. Soft landing narrative is fading unless CPI or labor data surprises to the downside. 📊 Probability Estimate Bearish Reversal (to $431.45): 65% Bullish Continuation (to $598.51): 25% Sideways Chop (532–563 range): 10% ⏳ Watch for confirmation below $547 to validate the reversal. 📉 If 563 holds, downside may accelerate into summer. 🧠 WaverVanir DSS remains net short while volatility remains structurally elevated. 💬 What’s your play? Bull trap or breakout? #SPY #S&P500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #TradingView #Fibonacci #BearMarket #RecessionRisk
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
4
Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Tumble with -15% crash ??On the above monthly chart price action has seen a nice 25% rise since November 2023. A number or reasons now exist to be bearish. Incidentally, with all the recently published ideas on Tradingview, Without Worries appears to be the only one who is bearish. The reasons? 1) Broken market structure confirmation. 2) Active price action resistance. 3) Rising wedge. A breakdown confirmation will see price action correct 17%. 4) $76 is the next support level, which is incidentally the measured move forecast by the bearish wedge identified in (3). Is it possible price action continues to rise as most of Tradingview is calling for? Sure Is it probable? No. Ww
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by without_worries
36
SPY will make new highs in coming weeks to monthsI decided to swap to the weekly view and found the 3 most bullish candlestick patterns all appearing in the month of April. 1st: Piercing Pattern: This occurred on the week following Liberation day. The piercing pattern occurs when price closes above the midpoint of the prior weeks red bar after opening below the low of the previous week. It signals that the price action was very emotional and reactionary, gapping below the low the a strong downtrend, it then signals that buyers were committed to recapture a majority of the price action. It also indicates that there may be trapped bears and short positions that were opened at the low, this can squeeze price higher. 2nd: Bullish Engulfing This occurred the week last week. It is a classic pattern that signals to turn bullish. It occurs when the green bar fully engulfs the previous weeks red bar. It signals that the price action was able to make a new low, this is important as similar to the piercing pattern it indicates there may be trapped bears/shorts who will be squeezed and forced to capitulate. It also indicates that the bulls were able to make new highs breaking out of the previous weeks range. 3rd: 3 Outside and up This just occurred to end this week. It is a rare follow-up to the bullish engulfing, it is defined by a bullish engulfing that has a following week with a close strongly above the engulfing candles high. It signals that the engulfing candle had commitment and follow-through, it signals that bears were unable to stop the trend and are at the point of capitulation. Many bullish engulfing patterns can lead to consolidation or weekly doji candles, or the less frequent reversals if bears are strong. the 3 Outside and up confirms that the bullish movement is strong. This was a very difficult month to trade with a ton of traps, I expect there will be more traps and pullbacks to come, but the big picture is bullish.
AMEX:SPYLong
by MikeSpy
2
IWM: Trade PlanTechnical Analysis: Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern. Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone. Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203). Target Zones: First target: ~$190 Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher. Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025): Macro Risk: Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025. Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive). Earnings Season: Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations. Federal Reserve Outlook: Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025). "Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM. Market Sentiment: Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows. Summary: IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup. Hashtags: #IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
AMEX:IWMShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
6
Utilities against the S&PNot a great chart for Utilities against the S&P. Below 200 week, might go down to historic support or even breach it. Frankly I view Utilities as bullish with the expected data center needs + electricity demand growth however a stagflationary environment can be negative for utilities and a higher rate environment as well. A higher term premium with stable economic growth may be the worst environment for utilities on a relative basis. When it is put like that, utilities may continue underperforming. Will revisit if trend picks up and the sector can break above the moving average and resistance.
AMEX:XLU
by walmutlaq2003
US Outperformance, when will it end?The US market has consistently outperformed global markets since the global financial crisis, it has also outperformed since the tech bubble. A portion of this can be attributed to a strong dollar (many markets outperformed in local currency). However this strong dollar performance may be coming to an end. In addition there are structural reasons why the US has and may continue to outperform: 1. A larger weighting to higher growth sectors such as technology, communication services and a lower weight to lower growth sectors such as energy and materials. 2. Better rule of law, better focus on shareholder returns, less crowding from the government and state owned enterprises lowering the return of markets. (EM SOEs as an example) 3. US attracting global talent and fostering innovation. "The smartest person in any subject will likely go to the US' So how can the US consistently underperform given these things? 1. Well for one the dollar may start to be a worse performing currency, it seems the current administration wants that. This not only lowers the performance of the US compared to global markets it also lowers the foreign inflows to US assets and also benefits EMs with dollar denominated debts. 2. The idea that the US attracts the best talent and fosters innovation may be declining with the current cultural attacks on immigration and the federal government spending cuts impacting research projects. 3. Global markets currently have a lower weighting to high growth sectors however this may not continue and instead we may start to see the marginal weight of sectors going to higher growth sectors instead of lower growth sectors. 4. The darling companies in most countries may list in their local markets instead of in the US. (Seeing the UK ease regulations of share classes, Chinese companies not welcomed in the US, European companies redomiciling back to Europe) 5. Valuations, Valuations, Valuations. Gun to your head: Next ten years would the multiple become a headwind or tailwind for the US market? What about for global markets? US trades at roughly 21x forward earnings whereas the UK trades at 12x, Eurozone at 14x, Japan at 13.5x, EM at 12x and China at 11x. If after 10 years the US trades at an 18x multiple and the UK as an example trades at a 15x valuation that would be an annualized headwind of 1.5% for the US and an annualized tailwind of 2.3% for the UK. Add to that the effect of low starting valuations on yield (US net shareholder yield is close to 2% whereas the UK yields 4%). Just rough numbers on performance for US vs UK next 10 years. US: -1.5% multiple change, 2% yield, 10% earnings growth = 10.5% UK: 2.3% multiple change, 4% yield, 6% earnings growth, 1% currency = 13.3% Everyone is over allocated to the US and is under allocated outside the US. Currently the US represents around 20% of global GDP however it represents 70% of global market cap. 70 cents of every dollar in the equity market is in and goes to the US. Will this likely increase or decrease as a share? The next question becomes who will take that share if it falls? Investing outside the US does not mean: Investing in markets with bad shareholder friendliness Investing in markets with a history of fraud Investing in markets with notorious related party transactions Investing in markets with high starting valuations. Some markets such as China can have the first 3 issues applied to it, some markets such as India may frankly have all of these issues. Some markets in Europe may have the first and last aspect. And some markets likely have none of these issues. I propose Japan, UK and Northern Europe. History is only a guide however the history of returns involved one of the single best economic performances of any country coming from the US which resulted in an amazing stock market with great returns, this is not guaranteed. Historically stocks return nominally 10% and on a real basis 7% which can be decomposed to 3% yield and 7% earnings growth with virtually no multiple change (on long enough time horizons) when you start at a high valuation the yield component is lower and you need higher earnings growth to compensate. And on a much longer time horizon earnings growth is what really matters. Earnings growth does not exist out of no where, it usually tracks nominal gdp growth + a margin increase from operations and or sector compositions. Nothing is guaranteed, your next maximum drawdown is in the future, expect the unexpected and keep invested as the global debt bubble will likely be inflated away.
AMEX:SPY
by walmutlaq2003