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$SMH vs $HACK: Recent good correlation with breakout potentialMany market watchers will say that Semis are the most important stocks in the market. Semis are great from a market direction perspective. They are the best to indicate a downturn and the fastest to recover during a bull run. In this blog we have appreciated the relative resilience of the Cybersecurity stocks during the recent bear market. The cybersecurity ETF AMEX:HACK fell only 25 % during the 2025 bear market. NASDAQ:SMH fell almost 40% and NASDAQ:SMH / AMEX:HACK fell 35% which indicated the relative underperformance of Semis vs Cybersecurity in April. But form the lows of ‘Liberation Day’ NASDAQ:SMH and AMEX:HACK are trading with perfect correlation. But the question comes will NASDAQ:SMH claim the leadership and outperform AMEX:HACK if this bull market continues. In the last 2024 Bull market NASDAQ:SMH significantly outperformed the $HACK. We are probably in the early days of this breakout outperformance. So. In my opinion in the near term NASDAQ:SMH outperforms $HACK. The ratio is at 96%. The ratio might touch the previous cycle highs of 160% if the momentum continues. Verdict: NASDAQ:SMH outperforms AMEX:HACK in near term. Buy NASDAQ:SMH ; Hold AMEX:HACK
AMEX:HACKLong
by RabishankarBiswal
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-30 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern should result in a continued downward price trend in my analysis is accurate. I have seen CRUSH pattern trend upward sometimes. So, please understand I'm reading the chart and pattern as a rolling top type of pattern leading to a CRUSH (downward) price trend today. I highlight the potential for a FAILED CRUSH (downward) price bar - whereas a reversion back to the upside is a potential. But, I estimate that potential at only 20-25% at this time. My analysis suggests the breakdown in price will likely continue, and we'll likely see the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin continue to try to trend downward. Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly solid Gap-Stall-Revert-Flush pattern that may see Gold attempt to rally back above $3400 today. Silver is currently trading very close to a STDDEV Reversion level, so Silver may not see a big move today (like Gold). I'm hopeful we start to see a big breakaway move in Gold/Silver today and carry into next week. My TTScanner algos generated new BUY triggers for GDX, GDXJ, and NUGT yesterday. That's a very good sign we are getting into a BUY/BULLISH mode in metals again. I got up late today. Somehow, my alarms got turned off. Happy Friday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
12
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🤝 Debt-Ceiling Deal Advances The U.S. House passed a bipartisan framework extending the federal borrowing limit through September, easing immediate default fears and lifting risk assets. 📉 Bond Yields Retreat After surging above 4.6% earlier this week, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back toward 4.5%, helping equities recover from recent rate-driven pullbacks. ⛽ Oil Inventories Jump API data showed a 5.2 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, sending oil prices lower and weighing on energy sector names. 🚗 Tesla Price Cut Spurs EV Rally Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) cut Model 3 prices by 3% in the U.S., igniting a broader EV stock rally as investors priced in renewed demand ahead of summer driving season. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, May 30: 8:30 AM ET: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April Measures core inflation trends—Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer-price pressures. 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales for April Tracks signed contracts on existing homes; a leading indicator for the housing market. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
The TACO Trade Is Back!🌮 AMEX:SPY 📊 The Setup: The TACO trade ("Trump Always Chickens Out") continues to prove its resilience in the face of trade war headlines. The market dips sharply when tariffs are announced, and then surges back up as the news cycle turns, with Trump pausing or reversing his decisions. We’ve seen multiple examples of this year-to-date on the AMEX:SPY chart: 🔹 Trump Pauses Tariffs for Canada & Mexico – market bounces. 🔹 Trump Pauses Most Liberation Day Tariffs – another bounce. 🔹 Trump Floats Lowering Tariffs on China – bounce continues. 🔹 Trump Pushes Back EU Tariffs to July – market rips higher. It’s as if every tariff tantrum is followed by an inevitable rebound. Could this be the pattern to trade around for the next few months? At this point, it almost feels like we’re watching a predictable movie. Every new threat to impose tariffs or spark a trade war is just a scene in the “TACO” storyline, and the markets are starting to get used to the plot twist. Are we playing into an endless loop of fear and relief? Is this time different, or just the same old TACO? How much longer can we trust that the market will “chicken out” and bounce back every time tariffs are floated?
AMEX:SPY
by SmartSignalss
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-29 : Harami Inside patternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will stall within yesterday's body range and possibly trend a bit downward (after NVDA news/earnings). I don't see the markets really extending much higher today as we are moving into a sideways Harami pattern, then into a CRUSH pattern tomorrow. Gold and Silver are really making a big move higher this morning, which suggests traders are back to actively hedging against risk across the globe. BTCUSD is trading flat/sideways - looking for some direction and, obviously, NOT RALLYING right now. In my mind, the markets are struggling for direction, and Gold/Silver are showing that real risks are still elevated. I also highlight my new Pure Alpha TTScanner algo and the work I'm doing to try to help more traders. The best part about what I do is that I get to create solutions/tools for traders. I love it. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
8
CHILE Stock Market Technical and Fundamental PerspectivesChile’s stock market is primarily represented by several key indices, each with distinct characteristics and coverage: IGPA (Índice General de Precios de Acciones) BCS:SPCLXIGPA The IGPA is the broadest and most representative index, covering the majority of stocks traded on the Santiago Stock Exchange. It is a capitalization-weighted index, revised annually, and includes companies across all major sectors of the Chilean economy. As of May 2025, the IGPA reached a historic high of over 42,000 points, reflecting robust market performance. IPSA (Índice de Precios Selectivo de Acciones) BCS:SP_IPSA The IPSA is a more focused index, comprising the 40 most heavily traded stocks on the Santiago Stock Exchange. It is revised quarterly and serves as the benchmark for large-cap Chilean equities. S&P/CLX INTER Index 10 BCS:SPCLXIN10 This index tracks the 10 main Chilean stocks that also have American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) listed abroad, providing a bridge between local and international investors. STOXX® Chile Total Market Index This index aims to cover approximately 95% of Chile’s free-float market capitalization, with top components including major companies such as Falabella, Banco de Chile, LATAM Airlines Group, Cencosud, Banco Santander Chile, Empresas Copec, and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM). Key Components The leading companies in Chile’s indices span various sectors: Financials: Banco de Chile, Banco Santander Chile, Banco de Crédito e Inversiones Retail: Falabella, Cencosud Utilities/Energy: Enel Américas, Empresas Copec Mining/Chemicals: Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) Forestry/Paper: Empresas CMPC Airlines: LATAM Airlines Group Long-Term Technical Perspective and Recent Trends The Chilean stock market, as reflected by the IGPA and IPSA, has experienced a strong rally in 2025, with the major indices gaining over 25% year-to-date The MSCI Chile index currently presents a mixed technical picture. While long-term moving averages (200-day) signal a "buy," shorter-term indicators (5-100 day) are on "sell," and several oscillators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD) indicate oversold conditions or continued selling pressure. This suggests that, despite the recent rally, some short-term consolidation or correction could occur, but the long-term trend remains constructive. Fundamental breakdown The Santiago Stock Exchange’s market capitalization stands at approximately $187 billion, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.08, which is below both the emerging markets average (14.3) and the global average (22.12). This relatively low valuation, even after a significant rally, suggests Chilean equities remain attractive on a fundamental basis. The Chilean economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2025. Inflation has moderated to 4.5%, and the central bank’s benchmark interest rate is stable at 5%. The banking sector is particularly robust, with Banco de Chile reporting a 14.2% year-over-year increase in net income for Q1 2025. The mining sector, especially lithium, is poised for growth following major investments and Chile’s strategic push to regain global leadership in lithium production. The combination of strong fundamentals, sectoral diversity, and attractive valuations positions Chile’s stock market for steady long-term growth, though short-term volatility is possible as global and local conditions evolve. Conclusion Chile’s stock market demonstrates strong long-term potential, underpinned by solid economic fundamentals, sectoral strengths, and attractive valuations, though investors should remain mindful of cyclical corrections and global market influences. Thу main technical chart for CBOE:ECH - iShares MSCI Chile ETF (total return) points on massive 200-months SMA breakthrough, attempts to break long term 'descending top/ flat bottom' technical figure. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:ECH
by PandorraResearch
Spy Monthly Close $595-$602📈 May is on track to close bullish with projected levels of $595–$602. This move is backed by the AlphaPulse™ Trading System: – Momentum signals confirm multi-timeframe strength – Anchored VWAP reclaimed from April highs – MACD bull cross + RSI holding strong (60–70 zone) – Price above SMA50/200 with elevated volume – Fibonacci 1.618 aligns with $602 target When anchored VWAP, MACD, RSI, volume, fibs, and AlphaPulse all align bullishly — and price structure supports clean higher lows — the probability of a May close between $595 and $602 becomes statistically favorable. 📈 Thesis Probability and Conditional Breakdown 🔷 Bullish Probability Estimate (May Close $595–$602): 📊 68% Probability of bullish continuation into $595–$602 Based on: Multi-timeframe confluence (MACD, RSI, AVWAP) No bearish divergences Volume + smart money alignment (AlphaPulse Bot) ✅ Bull Case (If $580 Holds): If price continues holding above $580, expect: Continuation wave toward $595 (local fib target) Acceleration into $602 (1.618 extension) if breakout holds above $596 Supported by: AVWAP control staying bullish MACD histogram expanding RSI maintaining >60 zone AlphaPulse breakout signal staying green 🎯 Target: $595–$602 📆 Timeframe: By May 30 close 🎯 Optional overshoot: $608 wick zone if volume spikes ⚠️ Bear Case Trigger (If $580 Breaks) If $580 fails on high volume or with RSI divergence, the setup shifts: Condition Bearish Implication Break below $580 Invalidates current higher low base MACD flips negative Signals momentum exhaustion RSI < 50 Enters bearish zone AlphaPulse Signal flips red Confirms structural breakdown 🔻 Downside Risk: If $580 fails, probability of bearish retrace to $567 = 75% $567 is the last demand support zone Also aligns with prior consolidation + rising SMA50 Below this, momentum cracks completely, and macro selling may accelerate 🧠 Final Note: “Above $580 = control remains with bulls. Below $580 = structure breaks, and $567 becomes the likely magnet.” AS always SafeTrades And JoeWtrades
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
3
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🚫 U.S. Trade Court Blocks Tariffs A federal trade court struck down key sections of President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, sending U.S. stock futures sharply higher as investors anticipate reduced input costs for industrials and manufacturers 🌐 Markets Drift on Lack of Fresh Catalysts Global equity markets showed muted moves today—stocks dipped and bond yields rose—as traders awaited new drivers of direction, with Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) mixed earnings doing little to spark a decisive trend 📈 Bond Yields Climb, Pressuring Equities The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.6%, its highest in a month, on concerns over federal borrowing and fading rate-cut expectations, dragging the S&P 500 down more than 1% by midday 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 29: 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP Provides the first estimate of U.S. economic growth in Q1, a critical gauge of recession risk and Fed policy direction. 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April) Tracks household earnings and outlays, offering insight into consumer resilience amid rising living costs. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – 1H Smart Money Concepts Short SetupPublished by WaverVanir International LLC | 28 May 2025 🧠 Smart Money Concepts | Volume Profile | Fibonacci Retracements | ORB (0930-0945) 🔻 Trade Context: We positioned short around the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone near $588.50, aligning with a premium pricing zone and weak high rejection. Price structure has confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS) with a decisive move lower after liquidity sweep above previous highs. 🔍 Key Technicals: 📌 Positioned: $588.50–$589.00 zone 🔺 Weak High: $593.00+ 📉 Short Target Zone: TP1: $575.59 (0.886 retracement support) TP2: $568.00–$563.22 (1.382 extension zone) TP3: $558.61 (Volume cluster low and liquidity magnet) ⚖️ Equilibrium & Volume Confirmation: Notice how equilibrium aligns with the lower range compression. Volume divergence adds confluence for downside continuation. 🎯 Outlook: We're anticipating a move toward the 1.382–1.786 extension zones, with $563.22 as the primary short target. This aligns with internal liquidity pockets and previous consolidation zones. 📊 Strategy: High-conviction SMC short with FVG alignment, premium rejection, and structural confirmation. Risk is tightly managed above the weak high. DSS confirms bearish momentum build-up. 💼 Trade Ideas & DSS-backed Analysis by WaverVanir International LLC #SPY #TradingView #SMC #AlgoTrading #Fibonacci #ORB #SmartMoney #ShortSetup #WaverVanir #VolumeProfile #MarketStructure
AMEX:SPYShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
4