ETF market
SPY: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The analysis of the SPY chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to go up due to the rising pressure from the buyers.
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SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline.
If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone.
SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to:
-USA domestic conflict
-International military conflicts
-Technical chart bearish divergence
-USA federal reserve interest rate news
-Government and corporate news
Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580.
Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615.
The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians
The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region.
The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
Spy Prediction Potential breakout of bull flag if it bounces back after retest of 200 SMA. Could see an attempt for new ath.
Spy needs to reach 602.23 and hold that floor before the breakout. Watch for volume spike and close above 603. Watch for confirmation on the breakout.
Potential entries based on risk - 603.61 & 602.95
If volume or momentum declines, we could see a potential breakdown back towards 598.
Watch out for fakeouts.
GOLD poised for breakout GLD & /gcAfter going on a huge run to 317 we have spent a significant time now basing out and consolidating we’ve come down into that 300 range and tested and built up quite a bit of support
With the Iranian intentions we could kickstart the next move in gold 317 is the breakout. I am looking to play this breakout on an intra day pull back with some calls one month out for a swing Trey looking at the 320 or 325 strike price
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-13 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may stall into a sideways price range.
After the news of Israel targeting Iran in a preemptive strike late yesterday afternoon, the markets moved dramatically lower while Gold & Silver moved higher on the news.
I, personally, see this market trend as a shift in thinking ahead of a long Father's Day weekend.
I see traders trying to position their accounts/trades for uncertainty.
I believe we could see a bit of a shift today - particularly in Metals and the QQQ/NASDAQ/BTCUSD.
Overall, I strongly suggest traders prepare for extreme volatility this weekend as any further news of a counter-strike or further military action in the Middle East could roil the markets.
Happy Friday the 13th - everyone.
Going to be an interesting day to say the least.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SMH Long Swing Setup – Buy the Dip or Overbought Trap? (2025-06-📈 SMH Long Swing Setup – Buy the Dip or Overbought Trap? (2025-06-12)
Ticker: NASDAQ:SMH | Strategy: 🟢 Equity Long Swing
Bias: Bullish with caution | Confidence: 70%
Hold Period: 3–4 weeks | Entry Timing: Market Open
🔍 Technical & Sentiment Snapshot
• Trend (Daily/Weekly): Strongly Bullish
• Short-Term (30m): Mixed – price above 50/200 EMAs, but below 10-EMA, MACD cooling
• RSI: Overbought (~77), suggests caution
• Bollinger Bands: Price hugging upper band
• MACD Daily: Mild bearish crossover – signals a potential short-term pullback
• Support Levels: 260–261 zone
• Sentiment: Falling VIX, Intel-led chip sector strength → bullish backdrop
🧠 AI Model Consensus
✅ DS, LM, GK (3 Models):
• Recommend long trade at open
• Confidence: ~70–72%
• Target range: $269–276
• Stop zone: ~$255–259
⚠️ GM Report:
• Suggests waiting – daily overbought + bearish MACD → not favorable R:R
• Recommends no immediate entry
✅ Recommended Trade Plan
🎯 Direction: LONG (Buy Shares)
💵 Entry Price: 262.85
📅 Hold Period: 3–4 weeks
🎯 Take Profit: 269.66 (+2.6%)
🛑 Stop Loss: 259.50 (–1.3%)
📏 Size: 100 shares (adjust to your risk profile)
📈 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open
📍 Entry Validity: Only if SMH opens at/above 262.50 and holds support (~260–261)
⚠️ Risk Factors
• 😬 Overbought RSI may cause short-term profit-taking
• 📉 Bearish MACD crossover could lead to near-term consolidation
• 🧨 Negative market surprise could invalidate long setup
• 🧮 Risk only 1–2% of your portfolio on this trade
💡 SMH bulls stay in control—but for how long?
🗣️ Are you going long, waiting for a pullback, or shorting the top? Drop your plan below 👇
📲 Follow for daily AI-generated trade signals & edge-backed setups.
Jeremy Chew SPY Notes 6/12/2025🧠 SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) — Technical Summary
Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Latest Close: ~$603.75
After-Hours Price: ~$595 (notable drop of ~1.45%)
🟩 Recent Price Action:
Strong rally off March/April lows (~458) has pushed SPY through major Fibonacci levels.
Sharp uptrend support (green line) has held since bottom, but is now being tested.
Today’s after-hours drop to $595 places price back below the 78.6% Fib retracement level (~587) — a potential warning sign of a reversal or short-term weakness.
🔍 Fibonacci Levels (from ~644 to ~458 swing):
Level Price Status
23.6% ~518.2 Support (cleared)
38.2% ~536.4 Support
50.0% ~551.4 Support
61.8% ~566.1 Support
78.6% ~587.2 Currently being tested
100% ~644 Major resistance
🔺 Support Levels (Key Areas to Watch):
~587.2: 78.6% Fib + Bollinger Band middle (critical support now at risk).
~566–568: Fib 61.8% + horizontal consolidation support.
~551: Fib 50%, secondary support if breakdown continues.
Green uptrend line: Dynamic support — near convergence zone with ~587.
🔻 Resistance Levels:
~603–606: Immediate resistance (price rejected here intraday).
~615–620: Horizontal price shelf from Feb highs.
~644: Major swing high from earlier in 2025.
📈 Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Price was hugging the upper band earlier today — sign of bullish momentum.
After-hours dip to $595 pushes price toward the 20-day SMA (~593) — possible mean reversion or early correction forming.
📉 Volume & Momentum:
Volume during the rally has been moderate to low, suggesting limited conviction.
No major volume spike despite the recent breakout attempt.
If selling volume increases tomorrow, it may confirm a short-term bearish reversal.
⚠️ Interpretation:
The after-hours dip to $595 is a yellow flag. It:
Falls below the breakout level of ~603.
Threatens the 78.6% Fib (which is a typical exhaustion zone in retracements).
May break below the sharp uptrend support line, triggering profit-taking.
Short-term bias: Shifting from bullish to neutral/bearish unless it reclaims 603 quickly on volume.
🧭 Next Key Watchpoints:
Bulls want to see:
A bounce from ~593–587 zone.
A reclaim of 603 with strong volume.
Bears want to see:
Breakdown below 587 with follow-through.
Confirmation below trendline and push toward 566.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets
🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears
Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East
💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb
True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 13
(No scheduled U.S. economic data)
Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
Chart Pattern Analysis Of CWEB.
It seems that K3 is breaking up the resistance of a potential bullish triangle pattern.
It is good place to buy it here immediately.
It is also possible that after breaking up the resistance,
The market will fall to retest it,
And then, it will be another good place to buy it there.
Long-41.5/Stop-40/Target-55
Despite ongoing supply restrictions PPLT trendsAs uncertainty in US equity and job future rises a trend appears in precious metals and bonds. The demand for natural resources continues to grow despite tariff concerns. Trumps PGM policies threatened to shake the market, however, majority of platinum is mined in countries with less strict tariff restrictions and even in the US.; infact, South Africa is the largest producer of platinum with Zimbabwe holding significant reserves, Russia is also a leading force. In addition to Canada- where an independent researcher Jayanth Chennamangalam is exploring the legalities of an exploration to mine platinum in space from craters on the moon. Both PPLT and PLTM have seen resent up growth, trying to push back to their highs of the early 2020s. I have taken the mean of 7 angles representing our highest and lowest points at approx 50°or greater and attached it to our new low- the cross section of this angle and the resistance point drawn from our all time high estimate we are ahead of schedule for reaching our all time high in Sept 2025.
"Within our updated palladium forecasts to 2029f, we expect market deficits to last until 2027f (previously 2025f) before market surpluses gradually build from 2028f. Given ongoing uncertainties, this report does not fully capture the impact of Trump’s policies on PGM demand, but we do not expect them to be of sufficient magnitude to materially change the platinum and palladium deficits laid out herein. "
(platinuminvestment.com)
We could have anticipated this upcoming growth by paying close attention to the K line cross and divergence on our Stochastic oscillator (14,3,3).
"C:\Users\ChrisPC\Downloads\PPLT_2025-06-12_15-47-20.png"
IWM TOMORROWI think we continue to see the 20ema on the 1hr as resistance. I think we might get a slight pump on michigan report or maybe the michigan report will be the reason it drops. either way i think we hit the bottom of the channel at some point friday and for there to be some strong ups and downs after we do.