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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-15 : Base Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ have been busy forming a BASE and may transition into a moderate rally mode. I believe this move will prompt the SPY to move above the $550 level, potentially targeting $555-565 over the next 48 hours. This upward move could be related to news or Q1:2025 earnings. I don't believe the markets really want to move downward at this time, although I do believe the markets will move into a topping pattern by the end of this week. Gold and Silver are moving into BLANK pattern day, today. Given the fact that we are between rally patterns and the metals charts show a very clear FLAGGING formation (watch my video), I believe we are moving into a FLAG APEX that will prompt a move above $3300 (for Gold) and $33 (for Silver). It's just a matter of time. BTCUSD is still struggling in the Consolidation phase. As I keep suggesting, I believe the next move for Bitcoin is to the downside. But, until we break this consolidation phase, price will continue to roll around within the consolidation range. Remember, we are going to be moving back to more normal volatility. So you need to understand these huge daily ranges are going to vanish over the next 3-5+ days. Volatility will likely move back to the 1% to 2.5% range very quickly. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
22
New era: 'The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles'🏆 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR Friends, today I’m sharing what may be the most important Bitcoin framework of 2025. Forget the broken halving expectations. Forget the chaos of macro headlines. What if the real signal has been here all along? What if Bitcoin’s true rhythm follows the capital rotation between itself and the U.S. Treasury market? 📊 Introducing: The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ This is not a model of where Bitcoin could go (like Stock-to-Flow)… This is a model of when and why it moves — based on the trust rotation between U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT) and Bitcoin. What I’ve found is a repeating structure — not based on supply or halvings, but on macro trust dynamics . 🔁 The Two Core Phases: • Correlated Periods 🟦 (Blue zones): BTC and TLT move together — both rising or falling • Inverted Periods 🟩 (Green zones): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions These aren't random — they're structural rotations that occur at key technical levels in the bond market. 🧠 The Cycle Timeline: Jan 2019 – Feb 2020 → Correlated (pre-COVID calm) Feb 2020 – Sep 2021 → Inverted (Fed QE, Bitcoin moon) Sep 2021 – Nov 2022 → Correlated (everything dumps) Nov 2022 – Oct 2023 → Inverted (TLT collapse, BTC recovers) Nov 2023 – Aug 2024 → Correlated (sideways digestion) Aug 2024 – Now (Apr 2025) → Inverted again — and compressing fast We're now in Period 6 — an Inverted Period — but all signs point to an upcoming Reversion. 📉 What Happens at Each Flip? These transitions tend to occur when: • TLT hits major channel support or resistance • Macro fear or liquidity shocks drive trust shifts • Smart money starts reallocating across asset classes Right now, TLT is at channel support — a zone that has previously triggered reversions into correlated periods. 📌 What Comes Next: According to the Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ : → We are statistically due for a reversion** back into correlation → If TLT bounces from 76–71 zone… BTC may follow — not fight → The target remains: BTC breaking above 115 resistance This flip — from inverse to correlated — has historically marked breakout windows for Bitcoin. 🔮 This Is Bigger Than a Halving Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow gave us valuable insight into long-term valuation. But it doesn’t explain timing. This model isn’t about supply mechanics. It’s about macro trust mechanics . When institutional confidence leaves Treasuries… And enters Bitcoin… That’s the rotation we track. That’s what moves the chart now. 🎯 Watchlist: • TLT support: 76 → 71 zone = reversal signal • BTC breakout trigger: 115 resistance • Cycle shift: Reversion = Bitcoin joining TLT upside If this plays out, it could mark the most important trust cycle breakout we’ve seen since the COVID inversion. Bitcoin doesn’t need permission anymore. It just needs a macro trigger. And this model helps us spot it. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 📌 Missed the full credit market breakdown? Check my recent posts on BKLN, HYG, LQD, and TLT to understand the full Trust Flow rotation.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by FX_Professor
2
SPY Approaching Major Resistance Zone SPY has rallied sharply from its recent low, but it's now pressing into a critical resistance zone. Price is currently sitting just below a major unfilled gap between $539.54 and $548.94. Until this gap is filled and the market closes decisively above it, the broader downtrend remains intact and risk of a reversal is elevated. Current Price Action: SPY has reclaimed $535.29, a short-term support that must hold if bulls are to maintain momentum. Price is hesitating under the gap, a common reaction area where sellers often defend. Moving averages are turning upward, indicating short-term strength, but we’re still below key longer-term resistance zones and the 200 EMA (not shown). Downside Risk Levels If Rejected: $489.73 – minor horizontal support $481.80 – a prior low and key reference point for buyers $474.14 – structural support area from prior consolidation Extended targets: $454.29 and $426.80 if broader weakness resumes Analysis : This area between $539–$549 is the battleground. If SPY can fill the gap and close above $549 with follow-through, that would be the first meaningful technical confirmation of a potential trend reversal. However, failure to clear this level could open the door for a larger pullback. Watch price action and volume closely — a rejection here would indicate that sellers are still in control, at least in the medium term. As always, be patient and let the chart confirm the direction. For now, SPY is at a decision point — one that will likely dictate the next leg in this market.
AMEX:SPY
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
Short term speculative trade - use 1-2% of your capital ONLYStrictly, avoid using money that you cannot afford to lose. Common sense may not be commonly practised in today's topsy turvy world where even the President can say one thing and flip flop another the next day. No matter how convincing you are to LONG or SHORT the market, always have a back up plan what if you are wrong ? If you take care of the downside and if it something that you can withstand without losing sleep or focus at your day job, then it is ok. Also, there would be so many things ongoing - it is getting harder to clear the smoke out there and some say buy gold, crypto, others say tariffs not over ,still lots of uncertainty , China may retaliate further ,etc. So, you can either sit back and do nothing , just watch the show or like me , place some small bets to participate in the market. If you are wrong, then the mistake is not too costly that you have to mortgage your house or sell your jewellery to pay back. As usual, please DYODD.
AMEX:QLDLong
by dchua1969
$QQQ - Recap of April 14 2025Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and slightly above that. We closed the top of the gap (always a potential resistance and in the case here, paired with the 30min 200MA that was facing down we did get pulled back down to close the morning gap and the rest of the bear gap (combined it was an island gap) Once we closed the bear gap first from above we came back and closed the bull gap, we took another swing at the 30min 200, still facing down and got rejected back down into close. It was an easy trading range today. Rather predicable, in my opinion, with the downward facing 30min 200MA, the bear gap and the 35EMA still trading underneath the 30min 200MA. These are all things I drill in daily in the videos and even though we closed great a lot of the bearishness of this chart today played out to contain the upside. Also let's not forget that we had a green signal line today!! It looked weak but you can see the support, weak or not, it stayed green. How did you guys do??
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY - Recap of April 14 2025 Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and we also gapped right to the top of the bear gap (always considered resistance and strengthened by the downward momentum of the 30min 200. We did see resistance with those combined bearish levels and we brought is back down to the middle, closed the gap from open and took it back to the 30min 200MA and got pushed back at close. This chart setup was bearish today - even though we closed green - how? The 30in 200MA pointing down. The bear gap under that. And the 35EMA trading Under the 30min 200MA. It was an easy trading day and just looking at the momentum you could feel that price was going to stay in the center of the implied move. At least I mentioned that in last night’s video. Excellent day. How did you guys do??
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 15, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🏦 Major Bank Earnings: Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are set to report Q1 earnings before the market opens. BAC is expected to post an EPS of $0.81, while Citigroup anticipates $1.84. Investors will closely watch these reports for insights into the financial sector's health amid ongoing market volatility. ​ 💊 Healthcare and Consumer Goods Reports: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is also scheduled to release its earnings, with forecasts indicating an EPS of $2.57. These results will provide a glimpse into the performance of the healthcare and consumer goods sectors. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 15: 📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.4% Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.​ 🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -10.0 Previous: -20.0 Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.​ 🗣️ Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks (7:10 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Buying The Dip / Dollar Cost AveragingI recently published my first script and felt now would be a good time to share something I feel could help some people out. I have been trading since 2021 and it has been an amazing journey. Anyhow, I would consider myself a value based investor and in it for the long term. So as the market takes a dip - now is certainly the time to be buying the dip or dollar cost averaging. The way I see it, if you are going to DCA/Buy The Dip, it might be handy to have access to a tool that is slightly better than just regularly timed investments. Take a look at my indicator and let me know your thoughts. Comment, Like and Follow if you enjoy the strategy and companion indicator.
AMEX:VTILong
by chuckaschultz
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Z-Score HMA Indicator OutlookOutside of the obvious news on Tarriffs, let's just focus on technicals for a moment: In case you’re in a hurry: My HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is currently signaling overbought conditions. The Z-Score has moved into the upper green zone, a level where reversals have historically occurred. Hull Moving Average (HMA) remains upward for now, but is approaching a potential flattening point. Price continues to respect a descending trendline, indicating resistance remains intact. Unless the trendline is broken with conviction, the probability favors a bearish reversion in SPY. HMA Z-Score Indicator Forecast: SPY Nearing Reversion Risk This week, my HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is signaling a statistically significant overbought condition in SPY. In case you are unfamiliar, this tool blends the statistical power of the Z-Score with the responsiveness of the Hull Moving Average to give us high-probability momentum and mean reversion setups. Let’s break down what it’s showing right now and why a pullback may be imminent. Z-Score in the Green: What That Means The Z-Score component of my indicator is now in the upper green zone, which I’ve defined as statistically overbought territory. This isn’t arbitrary, it's based on historical distribution thresholds that flag when price has moved too far, too fast from its average. In past instances when the Z-Score has reached these levels, the market has often reverted back toward the mean. It's not guaranteed, of course but the odds shift. This is one of the key features of my indicator: identifying these moments where the risk/reward tilts away from chasing price and toward anticipating a reversion. HMA as a Momentum Filter The Hull Moving Average (HMA) provides the trend context in this setup. Right now, the HMA is still pointing upward, but it’s starting to show early signs of rounding off. If it begins to flatten or turn downward while the Z-Score remains elevated, that would act as a confirmation of a momentum shift and strengthen the case for a pullback. The HMA has consistently helped filter out false Z-Score signals when the trend is strong. But when both tools start aligning, that's when I pay closer attention. Descending Trendline Holding as Resistance On the chart, I’ve drawn a descending trendline connecting recent swing highs. So far, price has failed to break through this line, continuing a pattern of lower highs. As long as price respects that line, it suggests sellers are still in control of the short-term structure. If SPY gets rejected again here, particularly while the Z-Score is elevated, the probability of a downside move increases significantly. Bearish Bias: What the Data Suggests The core logic behind this setup is based on reversion to the mean. When price extends beyond typical volatility bands (as measured by the Z-Score) and momentum stalls (as reflected by the HMA), it often precedes a return to more normalized levels. Right now, we have: A Z-Score reading in overbought territory, A potentially topping HMA, Resistance still holding at the descending trendline. That’s a confluence of signals that, in my indicator's design, suggests a bearish reversion is more likely than a continuation. What I’m Watching This Week To confirm the setup, I’ll be watching for: HMA flattening or beginning to roll over, Break of recent short-term support to trigger downside momentum. If these conditions start stacking up, the short bias becomes actionable. If instead we see a breakout above the trendline with conviction and volume, I’ll re-evaluate because no indicator is bigger than price. The HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is designed to anticipate high-probability turning points, and right now, it's signaling elevated risk for a short-term reversal in SPY. As always, these are probabilities, not certainties.
AMEX:SPYShort
by erikabarker
Credit Stress Panic? No, at least not yet!Credit Stress Panic? No, at least not yet! A friend shared a viral X post claiming we just saw the biggest exodus in the leveraged loan space — and they’re right on the numbers: • $6.5 billion pulled from US leveraged-loan funds in just a week • $1.4 billion from AMEX:BKLN alone — the largest outflow in its 13-year history • $9.6 billion also left high-yield bond funds — the most in nearly two decades But here’s the thing... dollar flows can be misleading without context. What is AMEX:BKLN ? AMEX:BKLN is the Invesco Senior Loan ETF. It tracks floating-rate loans made to riskier corporations — offering higher yields tied to interest rates. These are popular in rising-rate environments… until credit stress kicks in. So what’s the chart saying? Despite the outflows, price just bounced off a key historical support level: $20.31 . This zone has been tested before: • 2018: Fed tightening – sharp but contained • 2020: Covid crash – full panic • 2022: Banking mini-crisis – 💥 and Bitcoin pumped from here 💰🟧… Now in 2025, we’re seeing the biggest dollar outflow… but not the worst price action. Perspective check: The fund is much larger now. $1.4B today ≠ $1.4B in 2018. This move isn’t the apocalypse — not yet. Final Takeaway: If $20.31 holds, this may be just another macro shakeout. Break that, and we enter “panic mode” — but we’re not there yet. (Thank God that Tradingview alerts exist. It's ON) Watchlist: • AMEX:BKLN – key support zone • AMEX:HYG / AMEX:JNK – junk bonds under pressure • NASDAQ:TLT – treasuries getting love • CRYPTOCAP:BTC – does it act as safe haven again? One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
AMEX:BKLN
by FX_Professor
1
Junk Bonds: Risk Appetite Bounces on Support!Junk Bonds: Risk Appetite on Support! Credit markets have been buzzing — headlines warn of record outflows and panic rotation. But AMEX:HYG , the high-yield bond ETF, just told a different story. What is AMEX:HYG ? It tracks “junk bonds” — loans to companies with weaker credit. They offer high yields, but carry high risk. When investors are confident, they chase these. When fear hits, they dump them — fast. The Chart Setup: We've just seen a clean rebound off 75.72 — a long-standing “fear line” going back to: • 2008 GFC lows • Covid crash in 2020 • And now, 2025 macro tension Zooming into the 1H chart (see inset), the rebound off 75.72 was sharp and orderly — not panic-driven. Why it matters: 📉 Last week: $9.6B exited junk bond funds (20-year record) 💣 AMEX:BKLN saw its biggest outflow ever But technically? This support is still holding . The message: The market might be pricing fear — but not full-blown stress . Break below 75.72? That changes everything. Watchlist: • AMEX:BKLN – leveraged loans • AMEX:LQD – safer credit rotation? • NASDAQ:TLT – treasury flow = fear gauge • CRYPTOCAP:BTC 🟧 – Bitcoin as macro hedge again? For now, risk appetite is hanging on by a technical thread. Let’s see if it holds. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. things can change fast so we will monitor..alerts are ON
AMEX:HYGLong
by FX_Professor
1
[b]No Panic Here – Quality Credit Says Relax[/b]No Panic Here – Quality Credit Says Relax After watching leveraged loans ( AMEX:BKLN ) and junk bonds ( AMEX:HYG ) take heavy hits, we shift to the quiet giant in the credit space: AMEX:LQD . What is AMEX:LQD ? It’s the ETF for investment-grade corporate bonds — meaning bonds issued by highly rated, stable companies. We’re talking about names like Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, JPMorgan, ExxonMobil — the blue-chip elite. These aren’t the bonds you dump in a panic — they’re the ones you rotate into when credit stress builds. What’s happening now? 📌 Price just bounced off 103.81 , a key support zone that also held: • During the 2020 Covid crash • In the 2022 banking mini-crisis • Now in 2025 – mid macro uncertainty From 2003 to 2021, this chart trended upward with pressure on resistance. Since 2022, the pressure flipped — testing support. But structure is still being respected perfectly . 🟢 The ascending channel remains intact 🧱 Support at 103.81 is holding 🔄 No breakdown, no fear — just rotation Zoomed-in 30m chart shows a clean technical bounce . If we revisit 100.33, that could be a final test of the base — but unless that breaks, this still looks bullish on a macro timeline. What it means: This is not a market panic . It’s a rotation into quality. • Junk bonds = sold but found support • Leveraged loans = stress but not panic, on support • Investment grade = stable • ** CRYPTOCAP:BTC 🟧 = crypto wildcard in this macro unwind** Bottom Line: LQD is holding up, following the rules, and quietly saying: "Relax, we've been here before." One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
AMEX:LQD
by FX_Professor
How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge📉 How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge After covering leveraged loans ( BKLN ), junk bonds ( HYG ), and investment-grade corporates ( LQD ), we now focus on the most important piece of the U.S. credit puzzle: Treasuries. Specifically, the long end of the curve — tracked by TLT . 📊 What the Chart Shows Left Panel (3D Chart) • All-time highs in Feb 2020 at $179.80 • Long-term trendline going back to 2004 • Critical support was broken in 2022 — a structural breakdown Right Panel (8H Chart) • Clear descending channel since 2020 • Price has rejected from the channel top multiple times • Recent bounces off the lower channel suggest a potential final flush 🧠 What Happened in 2022? (can't blame Trump for that...) This wasn’t politics — it was policy. • The Fed's fastest hiking cycle in decades • Liquidity evaporated • Long-duration bonds were abandoned • The key trendline that had held for years was finally lost That line — once support — is now resistance. 📐 My Technical Expectation I expect one final slide before a reversal. • Channel base sits at ~$76.32 • My projection targets $71.30 or even $68 • That would mark new all-time lows for TLT 🟡 After that? I expect a macro reversal , targeting: • 🔼 $101 – mid-channel reversion • 🔼 $112–115 – former support zone (2019–2022), now resistance 🔍 Macro Context This chart isn’t just about price. It reflects how markets are pricing confidence in U.S. debt . And right now? That confidence is shaky . With Trump turning 'orange' and taking it out against almost everyone else: China but also his allies(EU, Canada, Japan, etc ) 🔄 Recap of the Series So Far: • BKLN – record leveraged loan outflows • HYG – junk bonds bounced at historical support • LQD – investment grade bonds holding steady • TLT – U.S. Treasuries under pressure, and possibly breaking down 📌 Next up? 🟧 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Because when the world begins to question Treasuries , the search for alternative stores of value begins. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. wait for the next posts...they might be epic!
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
4
IWM: Potential Trade Setup📊 IWM – Smart Money Playbook in Action 🔹 15-min chart | April 14, 2025 This IWM chart shows a clear sequence of liquidity grabs and structural shifts aligned with Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Here's a breakdown of the key moves and what I'm watching next: 🔍 Key Observations: Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) confirm bullish intent early on. Price retraced to a discount zone (below 0.5 Fib) and formed a strong base near $176.54–$178.15. The rally respected the 0.618 Fib retracement ($184.32), aligning with the equilibrium zone, where price is currently consolidating. 📈 Bullish Bias: We’ve seen a clean mitigation of the OB before the digging candle pushed into premium pricing. Price is now in the mid-range (EQ) between discount and premium. If bulls hold above $182.75, we could see a continuation toward the next liquidity levels. Next targets: 🔸 $186.80 (minor supply zone) 🔸 $189.50 (weekly inefficiency + liquidity) 🔸 Extended projection: $192–$193.75 (Premium + 1.618 extension) 📉 Downside Risk: A breakdown below $182.60 would invalidate this structure and shift focus to the deeper OB zone around $178.15. 📌 Trade Setup Idea: Entry: Above $183.00 retest with confirmation (PA or OB mitigation) Stop: Below $182.00 Target 1: $186.80 Target 2: $189.50 Target 3: $192.09 (old high) ⚠️ Watch volume reaction around EQ and VWAP crossovers. 💡 SMC, Fibonacci, and EMA confluence at play – let price show its hand before committing. 📈 Volume confirms intent – we just follow structure and flow. #IWM #SmartMoneyConcepts #VolumeAnalysis #LiquiditySweep #OptionsFlow #FibRetracement #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Wavervanir
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Is The Blood Bath Over???✅ 🎯 The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF CBOE:MAGS has indeed reached the anticipated retrace level of low $40's, as expected and the reaction off of this level was quite bullish. Examining the two-week chart, the price has just closed with a prominent pin or doji bar, however you want to call it, signaling a potential pivot point. Additionally, there is a bearish 2W Time@Mode set to expire by the end of the month, further supporting the possibility of a near-term bounce or consolidation. This suggests that the recent downtrend may be nearing its end, at least in the short term. However, price remains below a critical resistance level of $49, meaning any upward movement should be approached cautiously as it may be a potential retest of the range high unless a decisive support/resistance flip occurs.
CBOE:MAGS
by ZelfTrade