SPY Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart). Nov. 29, 2024Market Overview:
SPY is showing a mix of consolidation and minor recovery from recent selling pressure, with price action testing key levels. The overall structure remains in an upward trend on larger timeframes but appears to be encountering short-term resistance.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Line:
* A rising trend line was recently broken, indicating potential weakness. The price is now consolidating below this level, showing a retest scenario.
* If SPY reclaims the trend line with strong momentum, it could suggest renewed bullishness.
2. Support & Resistance:
* Support Levels:
* $595.24: A strong intraday support, acting as a pivot point.
* $590: The next significant support zone to watch if selling accelerates.
* Resistance Levels:
* $601.33-$602.13: Immediate resistance; a break above could attract buyers.
* $605: A psychological resistance level.
3. MACD:
* The MACD is in a bearish crossover but is starting to flatten, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure.
* Look for a bullish crossover as a signal for upward momentum.
4. Volume:
* Volume has decreased, reflecting the holiday week. Light volume could lead to exaggerated price moves, so caution is warranted.
Trading Plan:
Scalping:
* Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $601.33.
* Target: $603.50-$605.
* Stop-Loss: Below $599.
* Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Below $595.
* Target: $590-$592.
* Stop-Loss: Above $597.
Swing Trade:
* Bullish Swing:
* Entry: On a daily close above $602.
* Target: $610.
* Stop-Loss: Below $599.
* Bearish Swing:
* Entry: Below $590 with confirmation.
* Target: $585.
* Stop-Loss: Above $592.
My Thoughts:
* SPY’s ability to reclaim and hold above the broken trend line will dictate the next move. A failure to reclaim could result in a continued pullback.
* Watch the $601-$602 zone closely for signs of a breakout or rejection.
* Given the low-volume environment due to the shortened trading week, consider smaller position sizes to manage risk.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence and use proper risk management when trading.
