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QQQ - Weekly Volatility PotentialGood Morning -- Last week we reviewed the potential of the S&P 500, this week let us take a look at the potential perspective of NASDAQ:QQQ . IV (17.97%) entering the week is trending 31% IVp on the year and has been gradually lowering as price action grinds higher and out of corrective territory -- This is +2.61% more volatile than near-term trending values of HV10 (15.36%) and only -0.57% under HV21 (18.54%), our monthly trending values. Looking towards next week, I expect the CBOE:VIX to continually soften IV values as the broader markets push towards all-time highs this week. NASDAQ:QQQ historical values are coiling to where we will soon need a volatility spike, but not just yet -- my weekly price target here is simple (HV10 upper implied range) $539.44 with wicking potential above to monthly trends (HV21 upper implied ranges) at $541.42. Only time will tell, we can't control the markets but we sure can manage our own risk within them. Remember to always be hedged and come back to join me next weekend as we review the charts for what happened VS our expectation! CHEERS
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
4
BITx - Weekly Volatility PotentialGood Morning! Here is my weekly perspective for CBOE:BITX -- From when we reviewed last weekend, IV (84.60%) has lowered -2.39% and is entering the week with a 2% IVp. We have been in this pattern of rotating IV and Bi-Weekly volatility trends back and forth as HV10 (62.69%) entering the week has increased +2.47% from it's respective level entering last week. The prediction of what is to happen is contracting as what is actually happening in the short-term is trending up. Bi-Weekly and Monthly volatility values after being 100% coiled and both putting in new yearly lows a month ago are starting to unwind as they create distance from those exact lows. Could long-term trending means be on the horizon with quarterly values? Bi-weekly will eventually find it's way back there, question is when. Our best advantage, is to continue to track the data and ebb and flow with the markets and macro news. Looking towards this next week, Our HV10 (62.69%) trending values are still contracting under our monthly HV21 (68.45%) trends, but IV (84.60%) although lowering, is reflecting expansion. There is a premium capture past stated IV if we can find means regression back to HV63 (99.07%), as what is happening will expand past what is predicted to happen. As of now this value is 14.97% and equates to a premium capture $8.24 or $88.24 per lot or contract. Again, when IV contracts chasing HV10, but it expands to HV63, we look to collect the premium value difference with the move. Only time will tell, I think we will see another volume push into this week -- Remember to always be hedged and come back to join me next weekend as we review the charts for what happened VS our expectation! CHEERS
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline. If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone. SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to: -USA domestic conflict -International military conflicts -Technical chart bearish divergence -USA federal reserve interest rate news -Government and corporate news Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580. Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615. The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region. The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
AMEX:XOPLong
by Trading-Capital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-13 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may stall into a sideways price range. After the news of Israel targeting Iran in a preemptive strike late yesterday afternoon, the markets moved dramatically lower while Gold & Silver moved higher on the news. I, personally, see this market trend as a shift in thinking ahead of a long Father's Day weekend. I see traders trying to position their accounts/trades for uncertainty. I believe we could see a bit of a shift today - particularly in Metals and the QQQ/NASDAQ/BTCUSD. Overall, I strongly suggest traders prepare for extreme volatility this weekend as any further news of a counter-strike or further military action in the Middle East could roil the markets. Happy Friday the 13th - everyone. Going to be an interesting day to say the least. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SMH Long Swing Setup – Buy the Dip or Overbought Trap? (2025-06-📈 SMH Long Swing Setup – Buy the Dip or Overbought Trap? (2025-06-12) Ticker: NASDAQ:SMH | Strategy: 🟢 Equity Long Swing Bias: Bullish with caution | Confidence: 70% Hold Period: 3–4 weeks | Entry Timing: Market Open 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Snapshot • Trend (Daily/Weekly): Strongly Bullish • Short-Term (30m): Mixed – price above 50/200 EMAs, but below 10-EMA, MACD cooling • RSI: Overbought (~77), suggests caution • Bollinger Bands: Price hugging upper band • MACD Daily: Mild bearish crossover – signals a potential short-term pullback • Support Levels: 260–261 zone • Sentiment: Falling VIX, Intel-led chip sector strength → bullish backdrop 🧠 AI Model Consensus ✅ DS, LM, GK (3 Models): • Recommend long trade at open • Confidence: ~70–72% • Target range: $269–276 • Stop zone: ~$255–259 ⚠️ GM Report: • Suggests waiting – daily overbought + bearish MACD → not favorable R:R • Recommends no immediate entry ✅ Recommended Trade Plan 🎯 Direction: LONG (Buy Shares) 💵 Entry Price: 262.85 📅 Hold Period: 3–4 weeks 🎯 Take Profit: 269.66 (+2.6%) 🛑 Stop Loss: 259.50 (–1.3%) 📏 Size: 100 shares (adjust to your risk profile) 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open 📍 Entry Validity: Only if SMH opens at/above 262.50 and holds support (~260–261) ⚠️ Risk Factors • 😬 Overbought RSI may cause short-term profit-taking • 📉 Bearish MACD crossover could lead to near-term consolidation • 🧨 Negative market surprise could invalidate long setup • 🧮 Risk only 1–2% of your portfolio on this trade 💡 SMH bulls stay in control—but for how long? 🗣️ Are you going long, waiting for a pullback, or shorting the top? Drop your plan below 👇 📲 Follow for daily AI-generated trade signals & edge-backed setups.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by quantsignals
Jeremy Chew SPY Notes 6/12/2025🧠 SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) — Technical Summary Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D) Latest Close: ~$603.75 After-Hours Price: ~$595 (notable drop of ~1.45%) 🟩 Recent Price Action: Strong rally off March/April lows (~458) has pushed SPY through major Fibonacci levels. Sharp uptrend support (green line) has held since bottom, but is now being tested. Today’s after-hours drop to $595 places price back below the 78.6% Fib retracement level (~587) — a potential warning sign of a reversal or short-term weakness. 🔍 Fibonacci Levels (from ~644 to ~458 swing): Level Price Status 23.6% ~518.2 Support (cleared) 38.2% ~536.4 Support 50.0% ~551.4 Support 61.8% ~566.1 Support 78.6% ~587.2 Currently being tested 100% ~644 Major resistance 🔺 Support Levels (Key Areas to Watch): ~587.2: 78.6% Fib + Bollinger Band middle (critical support now at risk). ~566–568: Fib 61.8% + horizontal consolidation support. ~551: Fib 50%, secondary support if breakdown continues. Green uptrend line: Dynamic support — near convergence zone with ~587. 🔻 Resistance Levels: ~603–606: Immediate resistance (price rejected here intraday). ~615–620: Horizontal price shelf from Feb highs. ~644: Major swing high from earlier in 2025. 📈 Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Price was hugging the upper band earlier today — sign of bullish momentum. After-hours dip to $595 pushes price toward the 20-day SMA (~593) — possible mean reversion or early correction forming. 📉 Volume & Momentum: Volume during the rally has been moderate to low, suggesting limited conviction. No major volume spike despite the recent breakout attempt. If selling volume increases tomorrow, it may confirm a short-term bearish reversal. ⚠️ Interpretation: The after-hours dip to $595 is a yellow flag. It: Falls below the breakout level of ~603. Threatens the 78.6% Fib (which is a typical exhaustion zone in retracements). May break below the sharp uptrend support line, triggering profit-taking. Short-term bias: Shifting from bullish to neutral/bearish unless it reclaims 603 quickly on volume. 🧭 Next Key Watchpoints: Bulls want to see: A bounce from ~593–587 zone. A reclaim of 603 with strong volume. Bears want to see: Breakdown below 587 with follow-through. Confirmation below trendline and push toward 566.
AMEX:SPY
by jeremy.chew
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets 🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East 💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 13 (No scheduled U.S. economic data) Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao