SPY Holding the Channel – Can It Bounce or Fade Today?Market Summary
SPY is currently trading around $563, showing early weakness after stalling below key resistance at 566–567 last week. Futures were flat overnight with mixed macro sentiment and low volatility. We're starting today near the lower trendline of the rising channel visible on the 15-minute chart.
Technical Structure
* Trend: Price is still holding the lower boundary of the upward channel from May 1–2.
* Support: ORL at 564.29 and lower trendline ~563.20–563.40.
* Resistance: ORH at 565.47, PMH at 565.95, and GEX resistance at 567.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Flattening with bearish cross on shorter timeframes.
* Stoch RSI: Reset to lower range, watching for potential curl up.
Options & Gamma Insight (GEX)
* Current Price: $563
* PUT Pressure Dominant: GEX sentiment is 🔴🔴🔴 Bearish, with:
* PUT$ flow = 115.6% (significantly overweighted)
* IVR 26.1, IVx avg 20.4 = Still room to expand in volatility.
* Key Gamma Levels:
* Resistance Walls:
* 567 → 2nd CALL Wall (major resistance)
* 568–570 → CALL resistance zone
* Support Zones:
* 562–561 → Heavy GEX support
* 560 → Highest negative net GEX = strong PUT wall
Potential Scenarios for Today
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Price reclaims ORH 565.47 and breaks above 566, triggering momentum to test 567.
* If momentum continues, squeeze toward 568 or even 570 is possible, but less likely unless volume spikes.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Break below 562.68 Ask, triggering fast move to 561.70 and possibly flush into 560 PUT wall.
* Below 560 opens the door to 557 or even 554–555 if panic selling or negative macro.
Actionable Levels
* Long above: 565.50 with target 566.80–567 | Stop < 563.80
* Short below: 562.80 with target 561 → 560 zone | Stop > 564.50
* Scalp Range Zone: Between 563.50–565.50 = chop risk
Final Take
SPY is pinned between heavy PUT support at 560 and CALL resistance at 567. With PUTs outweighing CALLs, a flush toward 561–560 could be favored unless bulls reclaim 566+. Watch for sharp directional trigger around 10:00–10:30 AM ET.
📌 This preview is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and confirm with your own system before trading.
