QQQ Coiling for a Breakout? Critical Zone Approaching📈 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
QQQ is riding within a clean ascending channel since the April 9th reversal. The recent candles are forming higher lows and testing upper resistance near 454.00, with bullish volume stepping in during Thursday’s session. RSI is steadily climbing toward the 60–65 zone but not overbought yet, leaving room for an upward breakout.
* Key Resistance: 468.31 (top of the channel + GEX wall)
* Support Zones: 435.00 (put wall), 420.00 (gamma gap zone)
Current consolidation around 454 suggests the market is deciding whether to push into the heavy call wall above or reject toward the lower channel boundary.
🔍 GEX (Gamma Exposure) + Options Sentiment
The options data offers a clear battleground:
* GEX Resistance: The highest positive NET GEX is at 460–469, aligning with the 2nd and 3rd CALL Walls. This creates a strong gamma magnet but also potential resistance.
* GEX Support: Strong PUT Support around 435, confirmed by -42.99% GEX Support Wall.
* Options Oscillator: Extreme PUT bias at 83%. This could be positioning for protection or fuel for a short squeeze if price breaks higher.
* IVR: 68.4 (Elevated) | IVx Avg: 46.8
This suggests high premium—buyers of options are paying up for volatility.
📊 Trade Outlooks
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above 455–460):
* 📈 Entry: 455–456 breakout with confirmation
* 🎯 Target 1: 460
* 🎯 Target 2: 468
* ⛔️ Stop Loss: Below 448
* 💡 Suggested Option: 460C or 465C (0DTE or 4/17), tight spreads required due to elevated IVR
Bearish Scenario (Rejection at 455 and breakdown)
* 📉 Entry: Below 450 on strong red candle
* 🎯 Target 1: 445
* 🎯 Target 2: 435 (GEX support)
* ⛔️ Stop Loss: Over 456
* 💡 Suggested Option: 445P or 440P (with defined risk, preferably spreads)
📌 Conclusion
QQQ is sitting in a high-tension coil—either we break above 455–460 and see a gamma squeeze to 468, or options flows pull us back to the 445–435 support zone. With IV elevated and options heavily tilted toward PUTs, watch for a potential contrarian breakout if bulls step in.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
ETF market
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 14–17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Financial Earnings Reports: This week, investors will focus on earnings from prominent financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These reports will provide insights into the financial sector's health amid recent market volatility.
📺 Tech and Healthcare Earnings: Key tech and healthcare companies such as Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth Group are also scheduled to release earnings. Analysts will scrutinize these reports for indications of sector performance and future outlooks.
🏠 Housing Market Indicators: The release of housing starts data and a homebuilder confidence survey will shed light on the housing sector's response to recent economic conditions and tariff implementations.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting (April 17): The ECB is expected to address recent tariff developments and may announce interest rate decisions in response to economic pressures.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 14:
🗣️ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speaks (6:00 PM ET): Insights into regional economic conditions and monetary policy perspectives may be provided.
🗣️ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks (7:40 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Indicates consumer spending trends, a primary driver of economic growth.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: +0.7%
Measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting industrial sector health.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 38
Previous: 39
Gauges builder sentiment in the housing market, indicating construction activity trends.
📅 Thursday, April 17:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: --
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.41 million
Previous: 1.5 million
Tracks the number of new residential construction projects begun, indicating housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
🏦 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with markets anticipating a potential cut in response to tariff impacts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysi
ETF GLL Ultra Short: 11.04.25/11.85 USDAfter a long run over the years, Gold climbed up to 3200 USD/oz.
The ETF GLL Ultra Short, which is leveraged by factor 2, seems to reach a bottom.
Reasons for bottom
- traded Volume very high
- excellent Elliott-wave structure in several time periods
Fear factor will be reduced: Toll Bomb will not exploded. Mr. Trump seems to go very elastic in these theme and will give time for negotions.
All in All: Gold very clear for an first correction towards 2800-2900, later on 2500 USD/oZ
Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis:
Post-Close Options Activity (April 11):
Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets.
Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal.
RSI (14) Level and Trend:
Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought.
Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement.
Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13):
Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks.
Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates.
Potential Reversals/Catalysts:
Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN).
Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail.
Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility.
Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup.
Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.”
Tariff Impact
Assessment: Severe
Exposure:
KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues.
Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive.
Current Policy (April 13):
Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95).
Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps.
Tariff Relief Potential:
Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news).
Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists.
AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility.
Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT.
Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.”
News/Catalysts
Current (April 11, 2025)
Closing Price:
System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62).
Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12).
Drivers:
Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs.
Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag.
Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move.
Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31.
Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.”
Upcoming (Week of April 14–18)
Events:
April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com).
April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive).
Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed.
Predictions:
Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35).
Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41).
Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN).
Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT.
Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.”
Technical Setup
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52)
Weekly Chart
HVN (High Volume Node):
Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52).
Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31).
Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00).
LVN (Low Volume Node):
Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4).
Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8).
Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target).
EMA Trend:
Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening.
Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week).
RSI (14):
Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8).
Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70).
MACD:
Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10).
Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum).
Bollinger Bands:
Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing.
Stance: Neutral (breakout pending).
Donchian Channels:
Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High).
Stance: Bullish (breakout potential).
Williams %R:
Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought).
Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising).
ADR (Average Daily Range):
Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day).
Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers control).
ICT/SMC:
MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift).
Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35).
Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation.
1-Hour Chart
Support/Resistance:
Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00).
Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35).
Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance).
RSI (14):
Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41).
Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought).
MACD:
Status: Above signal, positive histogram.
Stance: Bullish (momentum building).
Bollinger Bands:
Status: Price near upper band ($30.60).
Stance: Bullish (breakout potential).
Donchian Channels:
Status: Above midline ($30.02).
Stance: Bullish (trend strength).
Williams %R:
Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought).
Stance: Bullish (>-50).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate).
ICT/SMC:
Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here.
Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low).
OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00).
FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12).
OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN).
Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news.
Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN.
10-Minute Chart
Closing Move (April 11):
Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume.
Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close).
EMA Direction:
Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend.
Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising).
RSI (14):
Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70).
Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought).
MACD:
Status: Above zero, bullish crossover.
Stance: Bullish (momentum intact).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers control).
ICT/SMC:
Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet.
Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM).
Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle).
Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry.
Options Data
Analysis:
GEX (Gamma Exposure):
Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30.
Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50.
Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep.
Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible).
DEX (Delta Exposure):
Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume).
Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB.
Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep.
Stance: Bullish.
IV (Implied Volatility):
Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB).
Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls.
Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries.
Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options).
OI (Open Interest):
Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30).
Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI).
Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN.
Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside).
Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown:
Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential).
Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50.
Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18.
Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts.
Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32.
Options Strategy:
Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50.
Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40.
Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30.
R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit).
ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50.
Vanna:
Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB.
Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep.
Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal.
Charm:
Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31.
Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades.
Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves.
Timeframe Analysis:
Weekly (Exp. April 18):
OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30).
IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts.
Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk).
Monthly (Exp. May 2):
OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29).
IV: Stable (~24%).
Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely).
3-Month (Exp. July 7):
OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls).
IV: Low (~22%).
Stance: Bullish (long-term upside).
Directional Bias:
Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep.
Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal).
Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.”
Sympathy Plays
Correlated Assets:
MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent).
BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap.
Opposite Mover:
GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech.
Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment.
Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.”
Sector Positioning with RRG
Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet).
RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF).
Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows.
Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00).
Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area.
Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.”
Targets
Bullish:
Target: +3.5% to $31.60.
Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00).
Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC.
Bearish:
Target: -3.2% to $29.55.
Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50).
Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT.
Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
Instructional for my brother. IThis is a bad swing trade, it is under the 180 day moving average. You wouldn't enter this using a swing trading system alone, its more advanced to identify. But you can see the yellow line I drew, that is strong resistance. That means the price don't want to go below that line.
I put what a trade would look like on it. You see how in this trade there is much more green than red? That is a good risk to reward ration.
Now here is CBOE. See how the green and red of this projected trade are nearly equal? Yeah, that is a bad risk to reward ration. At a 1:1 (that is for each dollar you can gain, you are risking) you are at a coin toss odds. Which is better than gambling but isn't trading.
You pretty much have the gist of Bravo simple trading, these are more advanced things. IF you are trading, you want to know where you will set your stop loss and where you will set your take profit BEFORE you buy anything. And then set those with the trade. That way you know beforehand what a worse case scenario looks like. If you do this, you will very likely succeed in the long run.
DID THE S&P 500 BOTTOM? MASSIVE STOCK MARKET RALLY INCOMING????Our indicator just printed a super rare signal on the weekly chart, let's discuss what this means for the future of the stock market and why this may be one of the best buying opportunities for the long term.
Because historically, this indicator prints green when it's been the best time to buy to prepare for the next 5-10 years of bullish price action
$NASDAQ:QQQI dip and rip back to $48 then to $52www.tradingview.com
*MAKE SURE YOU CLICK GRAB THIS CHART*
NASDAQ:QQQI
*DISCLAIMER* view on PC for best info and this is not financial advice
POC1 : $48
POC2 : $52 with a high end band potential of $54
HIGH YIELD DIVIDENDS with a current %15.89 12 month yield and an EXPENSE RATIO of %0.65
IMO the ROC and Yield will go higher due to Current market instability and Volatility
ALL POC indicators are pulling the price action towards my targets
AUM is UP
YIELD is UP
ACCUMULATION is UP
RSI is HEALTHY
EXPENSE RATIO is stable
NASDAQ:QQQI 's strategy is also one of the more tax efficient high income ETF's making it one of the better options for DRIP investing
AGAIN NFA but GLTA!
MSTY trading ideaThis upcoming week is pretty important for Bitcoin: when the tariffs are over, there is a fundamental opportunity for investors, not also that, but the technical chart may be has some justification too. In particular, MSTY is a ticker who has an incredible dividend yield of 154 % so it really helps to maintain the position even when it dips.
My short term target is 21.65 🚀🟢
What do you Think?💥
Stay safe 💜
Sebastian.
$GLD - bullish momentum soon to stallHello, I was bullish on AMEX:GLD for a bit and now examining the charts, multiple frames, this may be setting up for a good short. If geopolitics and tariff talks deescalate then this should cool off. The Elliot wave placed indicates some time for a correction/pull back on this hot commodity and the candle on the Daily from Friday is a spinning stop doji which can indicate reversal in an uptrend. Also, we have so many gaps up that happened in 3 day span, crazy actually. I labeled areas of targets to fill these gaps. Expecting a retracement to $280.
WSL.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Overview For 4-12 : Thank youThis video is mostly a big thank you for all the great comments and questions over the past few weeks.
I've been posting these videos on TradingView for almost a year and the types of viewers/followers I've been gaining is incredible.
You guys & gals have really impressed me with your questions and engagement. Many of you follow me for months without ever commenting or asking any questions.
I received a call from a client/follower in Alberta last night and he reported last week's gains at over 300% by following my videos.
I received a message from another TV follower saying he's been following my videos for many months and, after a bad loss a few years back, he has decided to give trading another go.
I've stated it before and I'll keep saying it.. I'm not trying to scam you out of anything. I'm trying to show you the RIGHT SKILLS and TECHNIQUES for you to learn to become a better, more skilled trader.
The way I look at it is like this...
If I can teach you half of what I know and see on the charts, then you guys will be able to achieve so much greater success and have gained/retained the knowledge to do it on your own.
You watch me do it over and over on these charts. Guess what - you are LEARNING at the same time.
Now, after a couple of years of doing this and following my videos, you've GAINED an education on how to trade more efficiently, manage risk more efficiently, and achieve your trading goals (I hope).
Right now, I'm getting messages/comments from people saying they are making 200%, 300%, 500%, or more every week or two from my videos.
That is absolutely incredible. I just want to urge you to remember I'm not 100% perfect in predicting the markets. No one EVER really is 100% perfect at it.
In the long run, as long as you don't get super greedy, you'll survive any minor losses and live to trade another day.
That is probably the most important thing I can teach you - trade within a proper scale to your RISK LEVEL. Never BET THE FARM on your trades. Always have a 50% to 70% cash reserve.
Anyway. Thank you. I really appreciate all of you.
Hope you enjoy this video.
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Piercing LineWe have price hovering above the 200 EMA and a key level around the 391 to 396 price area. Also, we have a possible piercing line candlestick pattern. Oscillators are in oversold regions. Chris Moody MACD is in the red zone but possibly could shift green. If price fails the 200 EMA we might have price action towards 346.68. Be careful and if the markets are too intense you can always paper trade.
SPY - RISK OF BEAR MARKET VERY REALTrumps tariffs is going to be the catalyst for a bear market that the US needs to have. I'm expecting a 30% - 40% drop at most but don't worry, it will be a good time to buy when the dust settles.
The RSI is painting bearish divergence on monthly. Big sign of drop.
The MACD is curving downwards. Also a big sign that we'll be dropping soon.
Bear cycles typically last only 1 year. But its alright, I'll be there to buy spy when its cheap because I have confidence in the US to produce cool new things and figure out new innovations.
Also intrest rates will drop, money printer go BRRR and dumb money flows back into the space.
SPY Trade Review – Potential Pop and Flop SetupI’m tracking a potential pop and flop scenario forming on SPY. There’s a setup for a possible 5.5% move higher, followed by the opportunity for a larger short of up to 15% toward final downside targets.
SPY and its key influencers, including the Magnificent Seven , are currently rebounding off significant support levels. This could allow for continued upside before running into major resistance.
As highlighted in the chart, we may see a further push higher of approximately 5.5% , taking us into the weekly/daily high support lost zone at $564 . If this level acts as firm resistance and price reverses, a break below $549.83 (our trigger for adding short exposure) could lead to a significant selloff.
Downside targets include:
- Target 1: $502
- Target 2: $476.30 (a potential new local low)
A daily or weekly close above $564.52 would invalidate this short setup.
This is a high time frame setup , but I’ve shown it on the 4-hour chart for greater clarity. Now we wait and see!
I SPY and link with US Debt..do you Waldo?Its not hard to find correlations in life...but this seems a little blatant. So I thought I would show that only one debt shelf ever resulted in no fall after it occurrs...an interesting finding...
But just think of this logic...If the bonds are rising in a solid manner to the toon of even the 3 month going from 2022 levels of .002% to now some 4.2% or so....why does anyone think that things can keep going up when you fund everything but what you need in the country.
Lets give you guys some homework:
how much debt was spent on new highway improvements on bridges and tunnels(i see you lincoln), expressways etc.
how much debt was used to build major power generation in Cali and NY so their brown outs aren't so bad....to which I say, those two states should just suck it up and allow more data centers so silly cat pics or anime can be generated on GPUs eh??
how much debt was actually spent on the poor condition of sports complexes or school infrastructure so to give children the ability to play...so that the NFL doesn't have to try for like 3 month to encourage play-60....only an hour of play folks...yeah, that'll keep the Coke sugars well balanced eh?
Finally how much debt was spent towards improving the very secondary and neglicted hard educations...or what some call vo-tech, which you need to repair/build these mass construction projects and splice cables over 200 feet in the air on mountainsides involving high tension wires after hurricanes like Helene barrel through places.
Yeah..well its about as much as the fellow "make this place great again" person has contributed their time and a bit of their NVDA or PLTR proceeds to a local community center or to a local youth developmental program for kids in rough neighborhoods....oh wait...that's for the government to do, so they can blame government for over spending on...the things above???
As two members of royalty I attended school with, both from active kings who sent a princess and prince to two of my schools said, "When they realize there are more of them then US, you begin to see a shift in attitude which makes US accountable. But when they think the few of US are more powerful then all of them combined you can see how your people believe in shadow governments or Illuminati( another name for "Deep State" back in that era..hmm where did that go eh??). Cause the whole government is made up of neighbors and the military is made up of college friends or past coworkers- but only simpletons think a title or a uniform/suit makes everything change- it doesn't".
another idea later tonight and linked in the comments after posting will show the 10 year yield and its relation to following crashes
2nd post of I SPY no reason for Bond shock as rates riseWhy is everyone shocked about rates rising as the market moves down...its seems to fit the logic as stated and is the Newtonian force-action see-saw:
You buy bonds and the interest rate goes down....you sell them and or don't purchase and they must go up in yield.
How has that been broken with the chart I have shown. Well it's due to outside structures forcing a "paper trade" kind of, technical analysis wishy washy, excuse of why things are not moving as they should.
Well, you didn't want to face the music after 2003 so the printer ripped right into the bank pockets, "protecting inflation from the little man". Well that caused 2008, which needed even more bank help even though they got a bunch since 2003 (see previous post and the debt rocketing after 2008)
So now you need to slam more debt, circa 2008, and the bonds are being bought cause the market basically went nowhere for another 6 or 7 years.....But then there was a change to how things were run....a loosening per say:
Now the banks can play in the stock market once the downturn of 16 started and the Entertainer was brought in to keep people pacified as things were turning down( almost like now, eh?). You see the magic rainbow that occurred from '15 to '16, well that was a last ditch effort to save the banks coughing up blood from terrible investments. So as I said, the Entertainer was brought in to pacify everyone to allow for the cutting of rates and "Dow to the Moon"...(kinda reminds you of "bitcoin to the moon" now, no?) and that worked until 2018...one more cut and print jober while stacking the market was attempted but now the foreign banks were going down and China refused to help the US after its initial injection in 2008.
So, rates are slashed, you crash in 19 and you need something to kind of start to take people's attention off how everything is going down around them(kinda like now with tariffs or fentenyl crap, eh?)....maybe to target that big nation who refused any more bond help or financial backing...like China maybe. Hence the cough was rolled out to allow emergency powers acts to engage and the secrecy of money moving was shrouded from eyes under said act...kinda like in 2001...huh, wonder if related somehow.
Well this was supposed to cripple foreign entities, especially Russia, since the US was already arming Ukraine under the Entertainer who no one cared to see what he signed off on, both his planeloads of money and weapons to the Z-man...then that Shoulder sticker which conveniently everyone has forgotten he solely pushed and claimed "beautiful responsibility for"---didn't that ruin career and cost lives...hmm, 2001 connection again, who knows, but you know.
So why does this explain the bonds turning around...it's due to the countries of the East seeing the coordinated NATO response to said cough and the banking sectors getting mass injections of cash to try and undo liabilities that went bad. However, this caused them to turn that cash into working capital by pumping stocks and signing mass M&A deals and all from all the companies going under or being crippled from the cough...again, damn near as convenient as those passports being fireproof, lucky be a lady.
So now you engage in the bonds climbing with the market cause there is no money in bonds yielding like 1 or less percent...but when you have unemployment money, crypto money, and payment protection plan money screaming into the market...you stop it all for midterm elections and then the crash of '22 in fall occurs.
But hold on to your laces buddy, Pelosi Put is to the rescue with a Chips act which fuels all the "AI" to suddenly become a thing apparently, even though its been in every video game since like 2008-9 and was basically the Alexa and Siri,....so way to fall for that one people. Well that caused dollar stocks to rip into 100, 200, even a 3000 dollar Mexican grille stock... burritos with a 800-900 PE ratio...good analysis there guys.
So the bonds feel neglected and have to hike up their skirt a little more to get attention, to which Russia catches a sniff and asked the US to hold its Beer while the Bear goes to town on their Proxy they were arming since the Entertained was slipped in, in 2016. So The Bear gets sanctioned to "hell and back" while having foreign accounts and treasuries either seized or frozen (hey, where did the 'seize not freeze' story go..hmm). So now no foreigner can trust holding US based assets and the purge begins which really moves the bonds in a fast hurry.
Finally, you have the genius idea to slap the Dragon's ass while he is busy making your stuff that you agree to teach him how to make and then build for you- well everyone saw that public pissing match and reveled XI has the ability to be a sundial if its a clear day out, and he delivered the worst pain shot right back..."Sup Bra', did you say something- we forgot we even do business with you again"
So now you have a country with a population that can buy the hell out of anything, not buying anything due to being a culture of savers(unlike the credit card addicts of the US) suddenly being encouraged to improve their lives and become a tiny bit American and have like heated slippers and maybe a water sprinkler for their dog. So if you think that Uncle Sam is the back breaker of the dear 'ol Dragon...you may need to visit your nearest supply house and see what is on the barcode sticker; if it says USA, see where its base metals, resins, and catalyst chemicals are from...then ask who needs who.
Basically....you slashed rates rather than having like 4 recessions as of now...kinda like the Ozempic people who can't go back in their photo gallery and pinpoint the year they just suddenly were dangerously overweight...nope, just woke up to it...couldn't do a more meat heavy, low insulin driving meal..."gots to keep Frito Lays and the boys at Kraft/Nabisco employed". Well you skipped 4 recessions and you froze foreign assets for no reason and then you decided to let banks play with free money to prop the stock market up- *see JPM has ass earning outside of trading desk...PS MBS and Commercial Real Estate is dead :)
>>So that's why bond yields go up and they need the fed to cut...but it seems since 2022 the 3 month bond went from 0.002% to 4.3 or so as of today....good one fellas, practically within 2 years and you scream higher causing all this debt to roll over at higher rates, like aforementioned Commercial Real Estate having to refinance every 5, 8, or 11 years per many contracts...well 5 years ago a 3 month would be cheap...even a 7 or 10 year at about a percent or less ...but not now...some of my buddies are saying 8% is a dream and 15% is becoming a nightmare in that space...but hey, be like a fat American...make everyone do stuff for you and then wonder why you are on Ozempic and now have intestinal peristalsis problems and feel like SH1t all the time :)
$QQQ Poised for Lift-Off: Flipping Resistance, Eyeing $470-$475!🚀 NASDAQ:QQQ Poised for Lift-Off: Flipping Resistance, Eyeing $470-$475! 🚀
As mentioned in my recent post, we’ve successfully flipped the $443.14 resistance into support—a key technical shift!
🔹 Momentum Building:
- Wr% Indicator: Making higher lows and advancing steadily towards the Red Barrier.
- Volume Gap: Still in play and ready to be filled.
With a higher low now established, I believe we’re set up for a potential move to $470-$475 next week.
📈 Let’s see how this plays out—exciting times ahead!
💡 Have an amazing weekend, friends!
Not financial advice