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SPY Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear subscribers, SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 584.57 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 577.22 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
3
XLF- Cant Hide From The TruthWe are in interesting times in the markets If you have followed us at all you know that we have been pounding the table for the last couple of years that the markets are heading for a GENERATIONAL TOP Of course as with all Bull markets we have seen almost parabolic price action in some markets at points over that time period since And of course you see some interesting calls regarding where the markets are heading Just yesterday we saw calls for SPX 7500, 8000, 10000, etc While all of those levels are theoretically possible, a trader makes money on whats probable And the clearest chart we have on where markets are heading is found with XLF Without turning this into an Elliott Wave seminar we have 2 clear as day patterns that signal the end of the 5 wave impulsive move that started off the Covid lows ANYTIME you see a triangle appear in a wave that means the NEXT move you see is the LAST move of that wave...and once that final move completes you can expect a significant retracement As you see we have a by-the-book triangle in the Wave 4 position But wait theres more! (in our best infomercial voice lol) Along with the triangle an ENDING DIAGONAL has formed in Wave 5 Ending Diagonals, like triangles, also signal that a wave is ending and a retracement is next So in a nutshell, we have a clear triangle in Wave 4 that told us the next move (Wave 5 in this instance) would be the last move before a significant retracement AND we are in the final stages of an ending diagonal in Wave 5 which signals that the Wave 5 move is over Here is the last piece we want you to know: Triangles are almost COMPLETELY RETRACED 100% OF THE TIME And as XLF goes so do the broader markets....get ready
AMEX:XLFShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
$SPY Outlook for OCT 21, 2024AMEX:SPY headed into this week is an inside bar / 1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. There's no real catalyst ' yet ' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ There still a GAP downside that was not completely filled last week. #SPY is in this rising wedge pattern and been respecting the TL (Green/Red). The pivot for SPY will be 583.99 - 584.55. If the bulls hold above that, you will see 585.39 get taken and then potentially 586.12. Failure by the bears to stop the move up and 587/587.35/588 will be on the path. If the bears take control and break the pivot zone, then you will see 583.67 / 583.2 / 582.6 / 582.33 and 581.82 / 581.5 / 580.9 Market Structure starts to change with a break of 582.16. A true MSS comes at 565 break. Keep in mind, there is a divergence between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE! #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
Projecting GDXJ Bull Wave to 56.18 TargetThe Miner's recent zig zag wave structure has provided a few hints at where the current price might top out or at least take a rest. Looking back at each wave on the chart with a FIB scale reveals a tendency for Bull impulse waves to have a fairly reliable middle area around 50% where price consolidates for a short while before advancing to a topping level. IF our current wave has the same structure then the consolidation area that price just left behind projects a wave completion around $56/57 in the week ahead. Of course it is a running Bull so it could blow through those levels and head to the 1.618 extension - IMO please not trade advice just an observation
AMEX:GDXJ
by hangonstaycalm
AI Optimized Trend with Buy and Sell SignalsHere, a technical indicator that uses a full automated code creation with AI, to plot a technical indicator according to trend, with buy and sell signals. The code, has no errors and plots great. A good tool for those looking into learning Pinescript, but lack of experience. AI while used properly, is a great tool, for a lot of programming languages. I expect, that soon, libraries and financial related data, is added to make AI a great solution in trading.
AMEX:TSLY
by syracusepro
1
Market Update - 10/19/2024All stocks that I follow are doing well. So much so that the stocks worth buying have probably already broken out and the following weeks only the laggards are going to catch up. Luckily I have some pretty nice positions in the leaders. Unfortunately I also have some laggards that didn't go anywhere, so I already took some off from them on Friday. Will probably have to continue weeding out the losers. Some stocks I'm excited about are NASDAQ:CORT , NASDAQ:AIRG , NASDAQ:CXDO and $asts. Good setups are AMEX:LSF , NASDAQ:DUOL , $app.
LSE:SWDA
by BenedekBokor
Weekly Analysis of Gold ETF GLD: Cup and Handle Price Target andWeekly Analysis of Gold ETF GLD: Current Bull Trend Following Cup and Handle Formation Introduction The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has emerged as a pivotal investment vehicle for those seeking exposure to gold, especially amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. A thorough technical analysis reveals a significant cup and handle formation that developed from 2001 to February 2024. This bullish pattern has now led to a steep upward trend in GLD, signaling continued momentum for investors. Cup and Handle Formation The cup and handle formation is a classic bullish pattern indicating a strong potential for price appreciation. In GLD's case, the handle is approximately 50% of the height of the cup, resulting in a robust setup that has propelled the ETF into a sustained bull trend following its breakout in February 2024. Volume Analysis Volume behavior is a crucial component of the cup and handle pattern. During the cup formation, volume displayed a strong U shape, reflecting robust buying interest. A decrease in volume during the handle phase indicated healthy consolidation. The subsequent heavy breakout volume in February confirmed the strength of this bullish movement, validating the upward trajectory of GLD. Measuring Target To project potential price targets, we can measure the height of the cup and apply it to the breakout price. The calculated target suggests a price level of $278.51. Additionally, Fibonacci projections provide confirmation for this measurement. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension level indicates a price target of $282.08, which closely aligns with the previously calculated cup height target. This convergence of targets reinforces the bullish outlook for GLD, indicating a strong potential for continued upward movement. Trading Strategies The pink trendline on the chart serves as a crucial support level. Monitoring price action around this trendline is essential for traders. A breakout below this level would signal the end of the current bull trend and may lead to a trading range followed by a potential correction. Conversely, maintaining support above this trendline will be vital for sustaining the upward momentum. As we navigate this bull trend, it’s important to be mindful of potential market corrections. Before entering any short positions, traders should look for confirmation signals, such as a test of previous highs, which may result in a lower high, a higher high, or a double top formation. A breakout below the pink trendline alone is not sufficient for short-selling decisions; a clearer indication of a reversal is needed. One critical area to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci projection level, which previously acted as a significant resistance level before becoming support. A pullback to this level is anticipated, representing a potential correction in the GLD price. Additionally, the correction may find support at the blue trendline, which connects the lows of the cup and handle formation. Potential Catalysts and Seasonal Trends A significant catalyst for market correction could be the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, particularly if Donald Trump wins on November 5, 2024. Trump’s previous presidency was characterized by substantial stock market gains, often attributed to policies that fostered economic growth and stability. His commitment to end the conflict in Ukraine may further boost investor confidence, creating a conducive environment for market corrections. Timing remains crucial for any investment strategy. The end of December typically sees increased gold prices due to the holiday season, and this trend continues into the Chinese New Year. Investors should be aware that these seasonal factors can lead to upward momentum for gold in the near term. However, caution is warranted, particularly as the market may experience corrections after these seasonal peaks. Conclusion As GLD currently navigates a steep bull trend following the breakout in February 2024, investors should closely monitor critical levels and potential price targets. A strong breakout below the pink trendline could signal a shift in market dynamics, leading to a trading range and potential correction. In contrast, maintaining support above this trendline will be crucial for sustaining upward momentum. Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant for key developments, especially surrounding the upcoming election and seasonal trends, as these factors may significantly impact the gold market. Those looking to act should carefully consider the timing of their trades, aligning them with technical signals and fundamental events to maximize potential gains. In summary, adopting a well-informed approach that combines technical analysis with an understanding of fundamental developments will be essential for successfully navigating the current market dynamics associated with GLD.
AMEX:GLD
by OWLINGOLD
SPY EOY AnalysisAs we approach the end of the year, the SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) appears to be trading within defined expected ranges, according to the provided data. This week-by-week analysis is particularly useful for traders and investors looking to optimize their risk management strategies and position sizing. Here’s an overview of key metrics and their importance: The **Kelly Ratio** is a widely-used formula to determine the optimal portion of capital to allocate to each trade. This ratio is especially valuable for traders looking to strike the right balance between risk and reward. For example, in the current week (Week 42), the Kelly ratio of 0.3068 indicates that about 30% of available capital could be allocated to this position, assuming optimal risk management based on expected returns. By examining this ratio weekly, investors can adjust their exposure depending on how favorable market conditions are. A higher Kelly ratio indicates better opportunities, while a lower ratio calls for a more conservative approach. The **Adjusted Kelly Fraction** is a fine-tuned version of the Kelly ratio that takes into account additional constraints like risk tolerance or market liquidity. In the current week, this fraction is 0.1767, which is more conservative than the Kelly ratio, suggesting that adjustments for risk aversion or other factors have been made. Tracking this weekly allows investors to stay flexible and manage risk more effectively, adapting to changing market conditions. The **Tail Ratio** measures the likelihood of extreme market movements. For Week 42, the tail ratio is 0.79, suggesting that the chances of a large, unexpected price movement are somewhat contained. A low tail ratio signals that the market might experience higher volatility or extreme price swings, and tracking this metric over time helps identify when market stability or instability might occur. **Volatility** (%) is another critical factor, indicating the magnitude of price swings within each week. In the current analysis, volatility fluctuates between 2.16% and 3.38% in the weeks ahead. Higher volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which might present opportunities for traders using strategies that profit from large movements, such as straddles or strangles. Lower volatility suggests a more stable market, ideal for time-decay strategies like credit spreads. **Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)** is a risk management tool that estimates potential losses during extreme market conditions. For Week 42, the CVaR is -4.12%, indicating potential losses in worst-case scenarios. CVaR helps in preparing for unfavorable outcomes, especially during weeks with higher anticipated risks, ensuring that your strategy accounts for rare but impactful events. Finally, the **Expected Minimum and Maximum Prices** for each week give you a clear sense of the anticipated trading range. In Week 42, the expected minimum price is $555.49, and the maximum is $608.63, suggesting a relatively stable range. Strategies like iron condors or butterflies, which benefit from price staying within a certain range, would thrive in such conditions. Weeks with a broader range might offer opportunities for breakout trades or more aggressive directional strategies. Looking further ahead, Week 49 stands out due to a sharp negative position size (-269.59) and a drawdown of 0.93%. This week warrants caution, as it signals the potential for more significant downside risk, though subsequent weeks like Week 50 show a return to more stable expected ranges. Overall, SPY’s end-of-year outlook suggests that the market will largely remain within predictable bounds, though periods of increased volatility could arise. Investors and traders should stay vigilant, using tools like the Kelly ratio, tail ratio, and CVaR to manage risk while capitalizing on available opportunities. Maintaining a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure, while adapting strategies based on weekly volatility and price range expectations, will be key to navigating the remainder of the year. **Disclaimer**: The following analysis is based solely on the provided data and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and any investment decisions should be made after thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
1
SPY Loosing Momentum ! SPYLOVERS DONT PANIC ! Its OKAfter several weeks of analysis, the price reached its all-time highs twice, creating a new extreme. Att his moment is what i call in a no man's land zone. But what do I see in the overall structure? If you can clearly identify the yellow upward channel, I want you to split it in half, and we will analyze the two parts. In the first half, we have an active price movement, with clear fluctuations between support and resistance. The high volatility causes the price to move in waves, perfectly respecting support and resistance. But if you can manage to identify the second half, up until the end of the channel, you'll see that the price shows signs of exhaustion. Exhaustion, how? When the price stops having that volatility everyone is looking for, and begins to slow down and starts moving like a worm along the edge of the channel’s support, showing small candles and, above all, losing momentum. (In the chart, I want you to identify the price exhaustion by marking it with a small symbol of a worm crawling along the channel's support.) This type of behavior happens frequently when the price is losing momentum. In this type of scenario, I am more than certain that we will soon see a move where the price might break out of the yellow channel. Most likely, we will see the price make its natural retracement. After achieving two all-time highs, I believe it's time for the price to take a break, either to consolidate or make a quick decision. Nevertheless, I am expecting the price to make its natural pullback in the coming week. We’ll see if it happens. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111