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SPY Short: A look at Elliott Wave Counts and Fibonacci ExtensionBased on yesterday’s move where SPY opened with a new high, I have did a slight modification to the wave count such that I merged the previous wave 3 and wave 4 to become a single wave 3. Note that I do not really like this kind of action and shows bias on my end for preferred wave count. In order to do this, I will have to restudy Fibonacci relationships to ascertain whether it can be done. Back to this idea itself. As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts: Highest Intermediate Blue Wave Middle Minor Green Wave Lowest Minute Purple Wave All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high. I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels: 1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure. 2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5. Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market. This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by yuchaosng
2
QQQ Technical Analysis for October 18, 2024Chart Insights and Market Structure From the 1-hour chart, QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) is moving within a descending channel or wedge structure, hinting at a potential breakout in either direction, but likely leaning towards consolidation for now. Here are the key technical levels and insights: Support Levels: 487.55: This level acts as immediate support, where buyers may attempt to defend. 486.09: Critical short-term support—if breached, expect a retest of lower levels. 483.64: This is the next significant support zone and a key psychological level. Resistance Levels: 490.17: Immediate overhead resistance that QQQ needs to break to gain upward momentum. 492.47: A stronger resistance zone; reclaiming this could indicate further upside toward 496.90. 498.83: If the price rallies above this level, it could mark the start of a larger bullish trend. Descending Channel/Wedge: QQQ is trading within this structure, which typically suggests a potential breakout. A bullish breakout would signal a reversal, while continued price action within the wedge indicates ongoing consolidation. Indicators & Volume Insights MACD: The MACD is currently neutral with no strong trend signal. Watch for potential crossovers or momentum shifts for confirmation of the next move. Volume: The chart indicates declining volume during the consolidation. A breakout accompanied by increased volume will confirm the direction of the next major move. Trading Scenarios for Tomorrow: Bullish Case: If QQQ breaks above 490.17 and sustains above 492.47, we could see a move toward 496.90 or 498.83. Look for strong volume on the breakout for confirmation. Bearish Case: If the price falls below 486.09, expect a retest of 483.64. A breakdown below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, potentially toward lower unmarked levels. Additional Considerations: Watch QQQ and SPY Correlation: Given the similarity in patterns between large ETFs like SPY and QQQ, keep an eye on both. A coordinated breakout or breakdown across indices could provide stronger confirmation. Impact of Earnings & Macro Data: QQQ is tech-heavy, so any news around tech earnings or macroeconomic announcements could influence the price action significantly. Tips for Trading QQQ Successfully: Patience: Wait for breakouts with confirmation (volume and candlestick patterns) to avoid false moves. Risk Management: Place stop losses below key support levels to protect against sudden market reversals. Scalp with Precision: Given your interest in scalping, focus on high-volume periods (market open or major news) to catch quick price movements. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading and manage risks according to your capital.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBear-Insights
SPY Technical Analysis for October 18, 2024Current Market Structure From the 1-hour chart, SPY is sitting in an interesting zone with several key levels to watch for tomorrow's trading session: Support Levels: 582.30: Immediate support, where SPY may try to stabilize. 578.53: Stronger support, previously tested as both resistance and support. Resistance Levels: 585.28: Immediate resistance overhead. If SPY breaks this, expect bullish continuation. 586.30: The next resistance level to monitor, potentially marking the upper boundary of the trend. Trendlines: SPY is still within an ascending channel, and the lower trendline (starting around October 11) is providing consistent support for price action. As long as it stays above this trendline, the bullish structure is intact. Indicators & Volume Insights Volume: We’ve seen volume decline slightly towards the close, which could mean consolidation before the next move. Momentum Indicator: There’s a slight uptick in the oscillators, indicating a potential reversal or continuation to the upside. Keep an eye on momentum overnight. Potential Scenarios for Tomorrow: Bullish Case: If SPY holds above 582.30 and breaks 585.28, we could see a run toward 586.30 and possibly beyond. Bearish Case: A break below 582.30 may trigger selling pressure, with 578.53 being the key support level to monitor for further downside. ____________________________________ Why Some Traders Profit While Others Struggle with the Same TA Even with identical technical analysis, traders experience different outcomes. Here are a few common reasons: Discipline & Emotions: Many traders fail to follow their trading plan or let emotions (fear and greed) interfere. Risk Management: Profitable traders use proper position sizing and stop losses, while others risk too much on single trades. Execution: Timing is critical—delays or hesitation can lead to missed or poorly executed entries. Adaptability: Markets change rapidly, and rigid traders who can’t adapt often miss out, while others thrive by adjusting their strategies. If you find yourself struggling despite using solid TA, focus on building discipline, refining your execution, and maintaining good risk management practices. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions or need further clarification. Happy trading! 📊🚀
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq: Key Indicator of Tech MomentumIntroduction: The ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ serves as a key indicator of tech sector momentum and near-term risk sentiment. When SMH outperforms QQQ, it signals a "risk-on" environment, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors and overall tech sector health. Conversely, if QQQ outperforms SMH, it suggests a "risk-off" environment, pointing to concerns over weakening chip demand. Analysis: Risk Sentiment: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio provides insights into tech momentum. A higher SMH performance often indicates robust chip demand, a positive signal for the broader tech sector. On the other hand, when QQQ outperforms, it signals caution, possibly reflecting waning demand for semiconductors. Bullish Outlook: Recently, the SMH-to-QQQ ratio has formed a higher low, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductors. This higher low is a positive sign not just for the semiconductor industry but for the broader market as well, as semiconductors often lead market rallies. Conclusion: The recent bullish signal in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio suggests tech sector strength, with semiconductors likely leading the way. This is a critical metric for assessing near-term market momentum, so traders should keep a close eye on this ratio to gauge potential shifts in sentiment. What’s your take on this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio and the higher low formation) #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #RiskOn
NASDAQ:SMH
by Richtv_official
QQQ Technical Analysis – October 17, 2024Price Overview: Ask: 493.44 Bid: 493.42 Recent High: 496.90 Current Support Level: 490.91 Critical Support: 487.57 (recent low) Key Observations: Trendlines & Price Action: QQQ is currently testing the upward trendline, hinting at whether bulls will defend this area. After a sharp rally, the price is pulling back, consolidating between 493.42 and 491.68. If it holds above 490.91, it might resume an upward move. 487.57 marks a critical support level, which could be revisited if the trendline fails to hold. Volume Analysis: Increased selling volume accompanied the recent pullback, suggesting some profit-taking. Watch for a volume surge at 490.91—if buyers step in, this could create a strong bounce opportunity. MACD Indicator: The MACD lines are crossing up, signaling a potential recovery in momentum. A continuation above the zero line on the histogram would confirm a bullish trend reversal for the day. Scenario Analysis: Bullish Case: If QQQ holds above 490.91 and breaks above 493.24, it may aim for a retest of 496.90. A strong close above 495 would signal that the bulls are back in control and targeting new highs. Bearish Case: If the price breaks below 490.91, expect a test of 490.09 and possibly 487.57. A failure at 487.57 could lead to more downside, possibly opening the door to 485 or lower. Trading Strategy: Long Setup: Consider entering a long position if QQQ holds 490.91 and reclaims 493.24. Place a stop-loss just below 490.00 to manage risk. Short Setup: If QQQ breaks 490.09 with strong selling pressure, a short position could target 487.57 or lower. Place a stop-loss just above 491.00 to protect the trade. Outlook for the Day: Watch the 491.68–490.91 area closely. If buyers maintain control, a bounce could lead to another rally toward 496.90. However, if bears push it below 490.09, the selling pressure could intensify. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risks, and you may lose more than your initial investment.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBear-Insights
2
SPY Technical Analysis – October 17, 2024Current Price Overview: Recent High: 586.30 Major Support Level: 581.50 Previous Low: 578.96 Key Observations: Trendlines & Price Action: The price has retraced sharply after an earlier rally to 586.30, indicating a pullback phase. It is now sitting near the 583.57 level, testing a short-term upward trendline as support. If the support at 581.50 holds, the price may consolidate before another push upwards. However, if it breaks down, a retest of 580.49 or even the 578.96 low is possible. Volume Analysis: There is a spike in selling volume during the recent pullback, suggesting short-term profit-taking or a shift in sentiment. Monitor if buying volume increases on a bounce from 581.50, as that will indicate buyers stepping in to defend support. MACD Indicator: The MACD lines are crossing upwards from a recent bearish dip, showing early signs of momentum shifting back to the upside. A clean break above zero on the MACD histogram would confirm bullish momentum for the day. Scenario Analysis for End of Day: Bullish Case: If SPY holds above the 581.50 support and reclaims 585.28, a late-day rally toward 586.30 or even higher is possible. A close above 585 would signal that buyers are regaining control. Bearish Case: If 581.50 fails, expect a deeper pullback toward 580.49 or 578.96. A close below 581 would reflect continued selling pressure and bearish sentiment into tomorrow’s session. Trading Strategy: Long Setup: Enter long if the price holds 581.50 and reclaims 585.28 with volume, targeting 586.30. Use 581.00 as a stop-loss for risk management. Short Setup: Consider shorting if SPY breaks 581.50, with a target near 580.49 or 578.96. Use 583.50 as a stop to protect the trade. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Trading involves risks, and you may lose more than your initial investment.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
Two weeks of bullish momentum ahead?I entered a long position in the NASDAQ:QQQ ETF a few days ago after the price pulled back to the previous high. It was a slightly premature entry, as the price continued to pull back to the 50% retracement level of the last bullish move. 😉 The overall chart looks a bit exhausted from the bullish run following the August low, but I still expect the NASDAQ to rise until the US election. Statistically, since the 1950s, there has been over an 80% chance that the stock index rises before the election. Additionally, we're supported by the SMAs, and there’s still some room left until the ATH is reached. Good trades, folks!
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by p4917
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-17 : CarryOver In CarryOver ModeGood morning, Great to see the ES/NQ rallying higher this morning - in perfect alignment with my SPY Cycle Patterns & predictions. Gold & Silver are also moving slightly higher - but remember My Gold patterns suggest Gold & Silver will consolidate a bit in early trading today. BTCUSD is a really interesting chart, in my opinion. The multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing into a potentially very large downward price move. Pay attention to all of the content in this video today because we are moving into the end of this week - which means we need to prepare for the volatility that starts next week. As I keep suggesting to everyone, trading is about attempting to time the best opportunities for success. Knowing when something may happen that creates an opportunity, setting your risk levels, and going for it. I wish I could tell you, "Trading is like picking red or black". It's not. Trader's have to develop almost a 6th sense to be able to see and visualize what is most likely to happen in the future. My tools help me see into the future a bit, but a lot of my analysis comes from within my head. Anyway, the best way for you to learn these skills is from someone who can mentor you and show you what they are seeing on the chart. Teaching you the skills to improve your own abilities to make better decisions. That is what I'm doing. Over time, you will learn to use these techniques to make better decisions and become a better trader (at least that is my objective). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 IWM has been on fire lately. Today, the 35EMA crossed into the green side of the trading range. That doesn’t happen to often. If you watched the video you know what I’m talking about. So lets see it that is a signal for a pull back from here. The implied move for tomorrow is between 224 & 229, and 223 to 230 on Fridays contract… The previous resistance at 225, we gapped over it today, and if we drop that could be a support now and the 35EMA is just underneath as well. The gap at the bottom of the trading range tomorrow could be a buy the dip zone on the day. GL tomorrow, y’all
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 Tomorrow’s Implied move is between 486 and 496 and that is from options. The 30 day average volatility is between 485 and 497 and that also lines up with the implied move on Fridays contract - and that’s the strike I’ll be looking to if we pop to sell bear call spreads. (I’m thinking 497/498 or 496/497, not sure yet lets see how we open) To the upside look first to the 30min 35EMA - we are under it, printing red candles so treat that as resistance until we break above it. I’m guessing that if NYSE:TSM earnings come in great and we see a move up there then 496 will be the Target on the day. 30min 200MA is under us and we bounced there today and the last few times we met with that level. Bottom of the implied move is 486, and 485 on Fridays contract and if we drop, I’ll be looking to 485/484 bull put spreads on the day most likely. If all of that breaks then 480 is the next support so look for a big fun move if that happens. GL tomorrow, y’all
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 AMEX:SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 - Tomorrow’s Implied move is between 578 and 586 and that is from options. The 30 day average volatility is between 577 and 588 and that also lines up with the implied move on Fridays contract - and that’s the strike I’ll be looking to if we pop to sell bear call spreads. -To the upside we have ATH’s at 585.27. I’m guessing that if NYSE:TSM earnings come in great and we see a move up there then ATH’s will be the Target on the day. But if not, then the 35EMA is just underneath us so look to that for clues. If we break it then support is where we saw the gap that we opened the week with (579) and then underneath that the bottom of the implied move is at 578 -577 on Fridays contract and that’s the strike I’m going to look to if we drop ( for bull put spreads) -Underneath all of that is the 30min 200MA and we are quite far away from that. It’s not in tomorrow’s trading range but could be a target next week if we see a down move from tomorrow’s earnings. GL tomorrow.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF Analysis 10/16/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/16/24 I have no open positions in NYSE: EQLS Simplify Market Neutral Equity Long/Short ETF EQLS is a market neutral ETF with equal weighting long and short positions. The fund selects long and short positions based on valuations as well as qualitative factors. The fund has a 9.5% yield, which is quite impressive for returns in a market neutral way. Capital appreciation in this fund is unlikely and it will perform best during large stock market drops. For me, I see EQLS (and alternatives in general) as an asset allocation decision to lower draw-downs and earn a return that is uncorrelated with market moves. As long as you understand the risks and downsides of alternatives and are willing to accept a slightly lower return in order to stabilize your portfolio EQLS is one of the better options. I will be coming out with more research for free here so give me a follow if you enjoyed.
AMEX:EQLSLong
by sihen999