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Market Update - 3/16/2025Going through my trading stats in a bit more detail. Strong rebound in Friday, but we are still well in a correction, I will need much more proof to get aggressive, and here are a few reasons why. 1) in general there are not that many good setups 2) most bases are quite wide and loose 3) most previous leading stocks are well off their highs and what is working recently are miners, energy, healthcare names, which typically work in defensive / recessionary periods. as long as growth and tech names are not leading, it's not worth getting aggressive Besides, most setups that look solid are not in the US, but in China. Things like NASDAQ:TIGR , NASDAQ:YY , NYSE:DAO , NASDAQ:EH are the ones I'm watching closely. Already in NASDAQ:LX and $ATAT. All small positions so I want to either scale up or down depending how the next days evolve. In general still cautious, at 42% invested, will stay below 50%, my average losses are at 0.15% of my account and will keep it that way until we get more traction.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BenedekBokor
SPY: Update for Week of March 17Hey everyone, A bit of a longer idea, but I had lots to talk about about, I guess. Here is the summary information for next week: Summary Most likely high target 568.21 (probability assigned 18%) Most likely bear target 552.74 (probability assigned 64%) Retracement target 557 (probability 71%) Expected return -0.11% (very conservative this week interestingly enough). EMA 200 average target 533 range Weekly Levels Weekly Forecast Thanks for watching and reading and as always safe trades! 🚀And not advice!🚫
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
57
SPY to Crash to $350s by MayPeople fail to realize how dramatic market crashes can be. Historically bear markets have seen 30%+ declines from peak. We are going to see a 40%-50% decline from peak down to 350s by May. With 1 or 2 exceptions, rate cutting cycles have always coincided with bear markets, which are 30%+ declines from peak in the S&P 500. We have the largest spike in unemployment since covid, largest drop off in real estate sales, massive AI bubble in tech stocks, Q1 GDP falling off a cliff to -2.8%, the list goes on and on.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ARX713
2
$SMH/$NAS100 is clearly in a bearish patternThe semiconductor sector was the poster child of the 2023 & 2024 bull market. The cap weighted index is a momentum play with heavy weights like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:AVGO outperforming and hence the ETF gives more than 100% return in 2 years. NASDAQ100 index is also cap weighted and momentum oriented. But the index provides diversification to a certain extent. NASDAQ:SMH hit an ATH in June 2024. In this chart we are plotting the ratio of NASDAQ:SMH vs $NAS100. The ratio peaked in June 2024. The ratio is making new lower lows and lower highs. If we plot the inverse head and shoulder, we see that the ratio can probably hit the neckline which lies at 0.01. This will indicate a 10% more downside in NASDAQ:SMH compared to $NAS100. Currently NASDAQ:SMH is at 226 $. This will indicate a low of 200 $ and then it might indicate a bounce back from those levels. Consolidation of NASDAQ:SMH around 220 $ - 200 $.
NASDAQ:SMH
by RabishankarBiswal
XIT LongBeen on the road since late January, so I haven’t been updating much. Entry on this one is currently going against me. That long black wick to the left marks the last stop-out location — some really poor trading here. Just when you think it’ll never pull back and finally let you in, you enter… and there she goes. This has happened a few times when I use 15-minute entries. You’ll notice I only committed 1/3 of a position — a tactic I use when I’m unsure of the trade but still feel the trend will continue. Getting close to another stop-out. let’s see what happens.
TSX:XITLong
by tradersteve22
Are bonds (TLT) about to fall?I've been thinking for the past few months that TLT would rally up to the 100 area. However, that move hasn't materialized and now I think there's a chance of yields rising and bonds falling. Over the past few weeks the chart has morphed more bearish. It looks like something should set off the bond market this week and cause a lot of volatility in bonds. I think there's potentially a chance we see the lower supports get hit before we see a relief rally. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by benjihyam
1
First dead cat bounce in reversing Gamma trend fulfilled SPY/SPXAs the chaos of uncertainty reigns: tariffs on and off again, government shut downs, DOGE hunting down government subsidized industries, we can see a trend change from our general upward long term moves from the past year. Not only this but we have returned to the bearish channel with many attempts to break and turn resistance to support to no avail. How long will it last? First step is to identify a solid exit out of this channel with a confident market support test on the upper channel. Until then we will follow this trend with dead cat bounces until the dust settles.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SuperScholarXYZ
Spy... Where we standWeekly chart... White line represents Primary trend since 08 housing crisis crash Blue channel represents price action from 2017 -2025 Now pay attention.. You see the yellow trendlines ? Those represent the up trend from covid crash and 2022 crash. Those were micro uptrends both lasting 2yrs in length.. So now the market has hit a reset switch and I believe we are headed back to the blue trendlines bottom Like so - I think over the next week or so if spy recovers 567 then we will have one more squeeze to 585 before the next leg down My target by the End of Q2 is 490-500.. basically we are back into 2022 price action Once we hit channel support I expect An accumulation and consolidation before a new multi yr rally to 700 I know this sell off seems random and tariffs related but it's not! Markets top back in Nov/Dec same as 2022. To show you what I mean by that just look at the other Indexes and tell me is it a coincidence they all hit their decade long resistance at the same time? Dow Jones target 38,000 NYA/NYSE (More important then spy) NASDAQ /Ixic Notice how NASDAQ , Dow, NYA and Spy all hit resistance at the same time? No Trump tariff , No inflation fears, No interest BS just good ol channel trade.. I know perma bulls want up forever but I suggest waiting for Spy 490-510 for the REAL dip buy.. You're going to see a bunch of charts focusing on the weekly hammer printing this week but I'd like to point out that in 2022 we also had week hammers print I do think Spy can bounce as high as 585 if it can get over 567 next week..
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
13
Bulls are holding the line on SPY!Boost and follow for more 🔥 SPY bulls are holding the line at the weekly trend support line from December 2023, for now bulls still have control and this is just a normal pullback, a rally higher to previous and new highs is likely from here in my opinion.. break of 540 on the weekly timeframe and a lot more blood may come.. but for now its looking like people are buying the dip.. if this post gets some likes ill start posting more SPY updates in the future, this is my first one of the year! its been a while
AMEX:SPYLong
by Aura_Trades
9
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 17th 45 Covered Call... for a 43.24 debit. Comments: Adding to my position at break evens better than what I currently have on, but going a little bit less aggressive net delta-wise, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 43.24 Max Profit: 1.76 ROC at Max: 4.07% 50% Max: .88 ROC at 50% Max: 2.04% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 25 Covered Call... for a 23.63 debit. Comments: Adding to my current position at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 23.63 Max Profit: 1.37 ROC at Max: 5.80% 50% Max: .68 ROC at 50% Max: 2.90% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call in the event my take profit isn't hit.
AMEX:TNALong
by NaughtyPines