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Real GDP vs SP500Real GDP and the S&P 500 are interconnected indicators of economic health, though they measure different aspects of the economy. Real GDP reflects the total value of goods and services produced, adjusted for inflation, and serves as a broad measure of economic growth. The S&P 500, on the other hand, represents the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies and is often seen as a barometer of corporate profitability and investor sentiment. Generally, when Real GDP grows, it signals a healthy economy, which can boost corporate earnings and drive stock prices higher, positively impacting the S&P 500. Conversely, a decline in Real GDP, such as during a recession, can weigh on corporate profits and lead to declines in the S&P 500. However, the relationship isn't always direct or immediate. For example, the S&P 500 is forward-looking and often reacts to expectations of future GDP growth rather than current data. Additionally, factors like monetary policy, interest rates, and global market conditions can influence the S&P 500 independently of Real GDP trends. In periods of economic uncertainty, the S&P 500 might rally on hopes of stimulus or recovery, even if Real GDP data remains weak. Thus, while Real GDP and the S&P 500 often move in tandem over the long term, their relationship can diverge in the short term due to market sentiment and external influences.
AMEX:SPY
by juanfortuno
SP500 vs fedfundsrateThe interest rate and the S&P 500 share a complex yet significant relationship in financial markets. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing typically increases for companies, which can reduce their profits and, in turn, put downward pressure on S&P 500 stock prices. Additionally, higher rates make bonds and other fixed-income assets more attractive compared to stocks, potentially leading to a shift of capital away from the equity market. Conversely, when interest rates are low, companies can borrow more cheaply, which tends to boost earnings and, consequently, the performance of the S&P 500. However, other factors such as economic growth, inflation, and market expectations also play a role in this dynamic, making the relationship neither linear nor entirely predictable.
AMEX:SPY
by juanfortuno
A Huge Technical Re-Test of This Important TL Has Just Occurred!Trading Family, Tariff FUD is recking traders rn. After breaking important support which started in Nov. '24, I knew the SPY was in trouble. My first target down was 563. We hit that and broke it. My second target down was 550. We are there right now! Will it hold? I don't know. TBH, I don't think any analyst that is honest knows. Investors have never seen Tariffs levied like they have been recently by the Trump admin. Noone really knows how this is going to impact the current economy, which is now global (big diff from the last U.S. tariff econ in the late 1800's). But I can say that this is a big support which is the neckline of our large long-term Cup and Handle pattern started all the way back in Jan. of 2022! We did have one retest already. Usually, this is all that is needed. But apparently, the market wants another. Though the support is strong, remember, every time it is tagged, it weakens. Thus, if it can't hold this current downturn, I suspect it will drop hard from here should it break, possibly dropping all the way to 460. Be prepared for this and watch your trendline closely! On the other hand, if it holds, I see a huge bounce incoming! We'll probably then go all the way back up to test the underside of that support (red with two with lines) that we broke. Hold on to your hats! We are living in unprecedented times with unprecedented market volatility. The last item to note is that, once again, this all seems to be occurring at the same time that U.S. congress and senate are voting on a continuing resolution. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation however, in this case, I would suggest that should a U.S. gov't shutdown occur, our support will break and down we'll go. Should a CR pass, big bounce incoming. Stay tuned and watch the news closely for this. It seems to be a news driven event. ✌️ Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 3-13-25 - Fear Settling InWith the US government only about 39 hours away from a complete SHUT DOWN, I want to warn everyone that metals are doing exactly what they are supposed to do - hedge risks. While the SPY/QQQ are continuing to melt downard. I created this video to show you the Fibonacci Trigger levels on the 60 min SPY chart, which I believe are very important. Pause the video when I show you the proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and pay attention to the fact that any upward price trend must rally above 563.85 in order to qualify as a new Bullish price trend. That means we need to see a very solid price reversal from recent lows or an intermediate pullback (to the upside) which will set a new lower Bullish Fibonacci trigger level. Overall, the SPY/QQQ are in a MELT DOWN mode and I expect this to last into early next week unless the US government reaches some agreement to extend funding. This is not the time to try to load up on Longs/Calls. The US and global markets are very likely to MELT DOWNWARD over the next 2 to 5+ days if the US government does SHUT DOWN. FYI. Gold and Silver may EXPLODE HIGHER. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-13-25: Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to continue to find support and move into a sideways pullback (upward) price channel. I believe the markets have reached an exhaustion point that will move the SPY/QQQ slightly upward over the next 5 to 10+ days - reaching a peak near the 3-21 to 3-24 Bottoming pattern. This bottoming pattern near March 21-24 suggests the markets will move aggressively downward near that time to identify deeper support. I believe metals will continue to move higher as risks and fear drive assets into safe havens. Bitcoin should continue to slide a bit higher while moving through the consolidation phase. Watch today's video to learn more about what I do and how I help traders find the best opportunities. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
How to manage your money in a way to get out of a bull traplet's say for example you bought 50 shares of BITX (bitcoin 2X bullish) on March 07, at Pivot for $45.50, and now you along with a lot of other longs are trapped. Each time the market rallies other bulls get out at a loss on every rally. Causing another downturn.. trapping you further. IF Your strategy is like mine so you won't close the trade in a loss, but you are wasting valuable time. Also suppose you have 30 or 40% of your overall portfolio that is reserved for shorting. When you take profits on the shorts, instead of saving the money for yor next short, you buy 50 more shares at the current market price of 37. Now you can get out halfway to your original target, at $41 by selling both, at the same time. you made money on your long, enough to eliminate the loss if you sold the first lot below your original target. In this example you can sell at $41, which is a lot easier to reach than $45 which might take another week. To determine the level you an get out simply add the two prices and divide by 2.
CBOE:BITXEducation
by dryanhawley
$QQQ - Trading Levels for March 13 2025NASDAQ:QQQ - Trading Levels for March 13 2025 Alright, y’all. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. The 200DMA is above the trading range, just under that the bear gap protecting it. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes. 35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday. I will be looking to the outer spreads here. GL, y’all.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY - Trading Levels for March 13 2025 Alright, y’all. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes. 35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday. Trace it back 3 weeks and you’ll see it’s been there every time to push us back lower. I will be looking to the outer spreads and even then I might push it out a little. If and when I take a position I will update it here. GL, y’all.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
QQQ - Nasdaq has reached it's firstPrice reached the Warning Line 1. This is a natural support, because it's a standard deviation stretch. From here, price has a high tendency of mean-reversion. How far? Most of the time it shoots back to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. Beware of the potential resistnace zone. This level is a good one to take partial profits. As for a stop, I would put it below the last swing-long. I may play it with Options (for example a Risk-Reversal), giving me more leeway to the downside if it's not playing out immediately.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tr8dingN3rd
Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) EFT Info : Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) is an investment fund traded on the Australian stock exchange that allows investors to buy shares in approximately 300 of Australia's largest companies with a single purchase. Chart Analysis The Monthly zone is promising, entry is at 87.54 however thats the lowest timeframe i could use here. Conc: 1.As this is monthly timeframe movement is in months and hence the long wait. 2. The zone is risky and would require a confirmation kind of trade to get into Prop: The Vanguard is well established and an entry would not require a target as its a wait and hold
ASX:VASLong
by FxBaus
Market Recap: Winners, Losers and Lessons from the past 4 MonthsGreetings Friends, Coi here—I hope you’re having a great start to the year. I’ve been away for some time, and I wanted to provide an update on what’s happening in the market, my thoughts on the current landscape, and any strategies that may help you make better trading decisions. As always please find attached other views / charts of the market that might not have been mentioned in this update. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I do not take responsibility for any trading or financial decisions you make. Always do your own research. ⸻ Market Recap: What Happened? The market has been bombarded with major headline news, including: - Deep Seek AI Threats - U.S. Tariff Threats on Allies - Retaliatory Tariffs - White House Show Down - Inflation resurgence These events have contributed to a broad market correction, with indices pulling back 13% from their December 17 highs through March 12 (and still ongoing). Notable Performance : 🎭 BABA +70% MSTR -56% TESLA -50% NVDA -30% Meanwhile, capital and investor confidence have shifted overseas, strengthening both the DAX and the Hang Seng Index. As previously noted in my post on January 1st The VIX forecasted this correction early. I don’t play poker but the Vix is like that that one person who has a bad poker face. Take heed. My Market Update: I am currently neutral in this environment, at this stage everyone is expecting a rally — which I do agree with but the question is will this be a counter trend rally and will momentum in the future keep favouring the downside? I will be attaching pictures to better help explain my view points. ⸻ Lessons Learned (For Those Willing to Listen) • Everyone is playing a game of musical chairs. Banks, hedge funds, retail traders, analysts—question everything. • Trading is the loneliest sport. No one is going to show up for your recital, but keep going. • Your gut is your second brain. Learn to trust it. • It’s frustrating to face issues with your strategy, but solving them is therapeutic. Growth happens in the problem-solving phase. ⸻ Closing Notes: My goal is to be more active again. I’ll be sharing my market insights, trade setups, and thoughts weekly. Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and trade wisely. Best Regards, C-Lemard ⸻
NASDAQ:QQQ
by coilemard
7