TLT tends to bottom at the same level of TLT/XLETLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
ETF market
S&P Pharmaceutical Sector: A Prescription for Growth● The S&P Pharmaceutical sector has great potential for growth.
● The weekly chart shows that after breaking out of the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, the ETF had a short period of consolidation and is now ready for a rise.
● The daily chart also indicates a Cup & Handle Pattern, with the price trending upward post-breakout.
As the industry revives, certain stocks are ready to achieve similar success
Key stocks to watch:
Hims & Hers NYSE:HIMS
● The price has broken the trendline resistance with high volume.
● More upward movement is likely to follow.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:CRNX
● Mirrors HIMS' chart pattern.
● Poised for robust growth after breakout.
Bearish Reversal in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The NASDAQ:SMH ETF shows a significant price decline, with a recent drop of 5.40%, as highlighted by the red bar. This price action suggests a bearish reversal after hitting a high of 283.07. The current support level is around 200.49, marking an 18.88% drop from the recent high. Additionally, the Darvas Box indicates a range between 247.16 and 283.07, suggesting potential consolidation in this area before the next directional move. The downward trend aligns with overall market corrections in the semiconductor sector, which could present a short opportunity if price breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors influencing this sector, as well as earnings reports that might impact semiconductor stocks. NASDAQ:ASML
New Setup: SOXS**High Risk** SOXS: I have a green setup signal(dot Indictor). I'm looking to enter long near the close of the day if the stock can manage to CLOSE above the last candle highs(white line). If triggered, I will then place a stop-loss below(SL) and a price target above it(TP).
********
Note: The above setups will remain valid until the stock CLOSES BELOW my set stop-loss level.
New Setup: SQQQSQQQ: I have a green setup signal(dot Indictor). I'm looking to enter long near the close of the day if the stock can manage to CLOSE above the last candle highs(white line). If triggered, I will then place a stop-loss below(SL) and a price target above it(TP). This is going to be a small position due to going against the larger trend for now.
********
Note: The above setups will remain valid until the stock CLOSES BELOW my set stop-loss level.
10/16/24 SPY LEVELSThese are the levels I will be watching for tomorrow. Overall I am bullish. I would like to see a nice rip to the upside and find a trend entry on a pullback to a fib level or in a FVG. we will see how this plays out. Stay patient in this market.
$SPY October 16, 2024AMEX:SPY October 16, 2024
AMEX:SPY retraced to 578.5 levels.
Moving averages gaps are reduced.
Downtrend as it is below all moving averages except 200 averages.
For the rise 566.63 to 585.27 38.2 retracement done.
For the last rise from 574.49 to 585.27 61.8% I done.
Hence it is crucial for 4SPY to hold 576-577 levels today being 200 averages in 15 minutes and fib numbers.
So, for the day for the fall 587.27 to 578.54 i will short at 583 levels for targets up to 576-577 levels. SL 584 with bar close near top of bar.
The number 576-577 also happens to be 9-day average in daily. so i expect some more retracement.
KraneShares Asia High Yield Bond ETF Analysis 10/15/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open position in NYSE: KHYB
KHYB is an asia focused high yield corporate bond fund. The current yield is 15.3% per annum.
Why asia high yield?
1. Higher risk premium for high yield corporate bonds
The asia corporate bond sector has higher yield given similar rated bonds in western markets. In particular the spread for high yield asian corporate bonds is 800 basis points above the risk free rate.
2. Lower default rates and higher coverage ratios
Asia high yield bonds have lower default rates and higher coverage ratios to their US and EU counterparts. This fact alongside the higher risk premium points to a greater reward/risk ratio in the bond market compared to other regions and grade of bonds.
3. Capital appreciation potential
With the defaults of the Chinese real estate developers the asia high yield space took a hit in price and default rates. If you are confident that default rates will return to the historic norm or lower the share price of KHYB could return to the previous highs in the $40/share range.
Why KHYB?
1. Excludes Japanese bonds
Japan is an exception in the asia bond space in that the country has negative real yields. Not to say they should be avoided, but if you are looking for positive yields and not to speculate on rates removing Japan is a prudent choice.
2. Shorter bond duration
KHYB has an average bond duration of 2 years. This is below the asia high yield average of 2.7 year duration. This lowers the price fluctuations as opposed to longer dated bond funds.
3. Below average default rates
Despite the defaults in broader asia credit market throughout 2022, the KraneShares fund did not experience a single default in their portfolio. Of course their portfolio declined in value alongside the market, but this statistic goes to show the responsibility and competence of the managers.
Here is the link to a presentation by KraneShares where I sourced most of this data: engage.kraneshares.com
If you enjoyed my article follow for more reports posted regularly
QQQWeekly, the QQQ has struggled to surpass its all-time high. It may find support at the 20-day moving average, currently at 472; failing that, a decline is possible. There is potential for a slight uptick during the Santa Claus rally, but a drop could follow in early 2025.
Bitx is awakeningIt might be time let's see if the positive momentum from Bitcoin can stay up and if we can get above some previous highs -- The 2x bet should one day payout AMEX:BITX
SPY Trading Plan 10/15I kind of want to see this pull back to about 583.43 or 582.51 before another push higher. ATR at 5.73. High today is about 589.96 and low of today is about 579.22. Could be a quite day. I'll probably want to get in a long position if it pulls back.
SMH Double Crack!Semiconductors just collapsed leading to a double crack of two trend lines after a completion of wave 3 up and topping M pattern.
Caution is in order as this could lead to something much more.
Bullish long term bearish short term check these levelsWhat I left out of the video were my indicators which for most part are in overbought territory adding a bit more confirmation of my bearish outlook not to mention we been green for weeks it's time for a red week. $496.60 is also a long entry but if it happens quickly i don't see it being a 10 point move. Better for it to be crossed later for it to be more than 10 points. Let me know what your view is I am curious
IwmNovember is coming!
Small caps usually outperforms every other index during that time
So here's what I see
Channel perspective
Has been bumping it's head against this trendline
With the exception of one fake out , this trendline has held
Fibonacci level
225 is the place to beat..
I think price could be forming an ascending triangle for a big push after elections but price may breakout before November
Just go back and look at Iwm performance during November.. I'm only wrong if we hard close back below 218
Bit-Coin Fund $BITO is trying to end a long correctionThe Bit-Coin Fund AMEX:BITO is trying to end a long correction.
Weekly $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY
Last week our $568 Calls ran over 130%. Here's what we are watching this week. Confirmations are 15-30 minute candle closes above (calls) or below (puts) our pivot.
Range we are watching: $581-$585 (Pivot: $583.50)
Bullish Scenario: $585 Call 10/28
Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation CLOSE ABOVE $583.50
Target: $585
Bearish Scenario: $582 Put 10/28
Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation CLOSE BELOW $583.50
Target: $580.90, $578, $574
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-15 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move into a Gap Breakaway type of price trend. I believe this means price will attempt to Gap higher at the open and attempt to move into a moderate rally phase throughout the day.
Remember, we are just starting to move into Q3 earnings data, which will last well into mid-November. On top of that, we have the US elections and other data (external) that may drive market trends.
Near the beginning of this video, I show you some of my ADL (Adaptive Dynamic Learning AI) predictive modeling system outcomes for various symbols on Daily charts. It is important to understand price is the ultimate indicator and we don't want to fight price. We just let price do what it wants to do and try to time the best trading opportunities on the charts.
Given what I believe it currently taking place, I suspect the SPY/QQQ will melt upward over the next 5-7+ trading days - attempting to reach a peak price level near October 24-25.
Metals appear to be in a consolidation channel (downward) and are struggling to break away from that channel. Move metals do break away from that channel - we are going to see an explosive move to the upside. I suspect that could happen later today or tomorrow.
Bitcoin is playing the Excess Phase Peak Pattern perfectly - moving into consolidation and now setting up the #4 (A or B) setup for traders. The next move is going to be explosive - either setting an ultimate high, or breaking downward and returning to recent lows.
Should be some exciting trends for all of us over the next 10+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
#SPY S&P 500 Outlook: Anticipating a Pullback Before a New Rally
I expect the S&P 500, along with the SPY ETF, to undergo a corrective decline from the current levels down to the area highlighted on the chart. This outlook is supported by several factors:
1-Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing political events in the Middle East and East Asia are likely to contribute to market uncertainty.
2-Economic Data Ambiguities: Persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic indicators is weighing on investor sentiment.
3-Valuation Concerns: A significant number of stocks are trading at valuations far above their intrinsic worth, indicating potential for a correction.
Following this anticipated pullback, I foresee a strong upward movement beginning in February 2025, leading to new all-time highs, as indicated by the levels marked on the chart.
Wishing everyone good luck and successful trading.
---
SPY shows signs of topping outSPY hits all time high throwing multiple signals that the rally is coming to a close
Following long term trend, we see we are at same resistance as July hit before reversing
declining volume as recent rally continues gives a bearish signal
OBV remains flat while price hits higher highs through out September and October
We should expect to see a reversal in the near future. The best move to make right now is tighten up stop losses and keeping watching for more bearish signals.
$SPY October 15, 2024AMEX:SPY October 15, 2024
15 Minutes.
Being a moving average and Fib trader it is difficult for me to enter when the difference is around 10$ is 200 averages for a 15-minute time frame.
I prefer to sit for a retracement today for 578.5 to 580 levels. For today.
I prefer to sit on side even though i have a target as written earlier 587 levels.
And AMEX:SPY made a high 585.27 yesterday.
As we can see in daily time frame Between July to September SPY formed a good base between 535 to 565.
Hence once 595 is crossed i expect a huge upside towards 640-680 levels.
I expect some consolidation for 575 - 585 before next move so that the moving averages can catch with price.
No time for short unless it is for a 10 to 15$% range in $SPY.
This is my view as of now based on how AMEX:SPY is currently moving in charts.
On daily basis I will review downside only when AMEX:SPY is around 560 levels which is 50-day average in daily chart.
SPY Breakout Setup: Key Levels to Watch for 10/15/24Current Price Action:
SPY is in a strong uptrend, following a well-defined trendline on the 1-hour chart. The price has broken above the recent high at $584.71 and is showing continued bullish momentum.
Support Levels:
Immediate support at $577.66 (previous consolidation area).
Strong support at $574.52, which was previously tested multiple times and held.
Resistance Levels:
Minor resistance at $585.27 (current high).
If momentum continues, SPY could potentially move towards the $588-$590 zone.
Indicators:
MACD is slightly neutral, showing some indecision at the top, but no significant bearish divergence yet.
Volume has been steady, suggesting that buyers are still in control as long as the trendline holds.
Key Insights:
Watch for a pullback to the $577.66 level, which could provide a good buying opportunity if the trendline holds.
If SPY consolidates above $585.27, expect another leg higher with potential to reach $590.
A break below $574.52 could indicate a reversal or a deeper pullback.
Short Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any trading decisions.
This is how $ES_F Rejected $5918 Today?This is how $ES_F Rejected $5918 Today?
The video will go more in detail about it but pretty much SPY gamma $585 and $590 had a lot to do with it.
