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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-15 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern could play out as a very big downward price move if the 578-580 level is broken. CRUSH patterns are usually very large-range price bars. Yes, they can be to the upside as well (depending on recent trending). A CRUSH pattern is usually in the opposite direction of recent trends. Thus, I believe today's CRUSH pattern will be to the downside. Although I believe today could be very exciting for traders, I urge all traders move with caution in the early 30min to 60min of trading today. I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to establish a range (early trading range), then work to break away from that range. Traders should be very cautious of getting married into a direction/position in early trading. Let the market tell you where it wants to go. Gold and Silver appear to have setup the Ultimate Low overnight. Now, we'll see if metals can move higher throughout the rest of this week and build a base for the next phase higher. BTCUSD seems to have started to roll over (top), but I urge traders to stay cautious of the current upward FLAGGING trend. Until BTCUSD breaks below $96-97k, I would still consider it to be trending upward. Going to be a busy day for me. Stay safe as I'll be on the road most of the morning. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
10
Staring Down A Market Crash - $400 Target for SPY"B" waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a "B" wave.” — The Elliott Wave Principle In my last major idea for SPY, I predicted a bear market rally would take the price to $580 by early May. Now that we have arrived at the target, I am writing again to call for a major market reversal — a crash that will take SPY down to $400–$450 in the coming weeks. There are several factors that I am basing my assumptions on, and I will break them down briefly. Before I do that, I would like to add to the quote above that I find B waves to be one of the most fascinating market phases. In larger degrees it is interesting to observe how sentiment changes over time and how price action can trick even seasoned traders into thinking the bear market has been vanquished, when in reality the worst lies ahead. In this instance, the collective euphoria is understandable; the trade war seems to be in retreat and inflation has remained tame. What is left to worry about? Who knows — but what I can say is that there are signs that there is still fear in the market and indices are currently at a level where they will be highly sensitive to any bad news. Here is how I’m counting Wave (B) on the 200R ($2) chart. The price retraced to nearly 0.618 of A (0.382 level on the fib extension) and entered Wave C. I will admit that the PA in Wave C was confusing at first. As I mentioned in my previous idea, I expected the price in Wave (B) to rise to around 75% of Wave (A) and would spike above the daily 50/100/200 MAs. However, the uptrend was choppy and slow — held back by low volume and multiple traps for both sides. Fortunately, the further a trend moves along, the more clear it becomes. I am now counting Wave C of (B) as an ending diagonal, which is common in C waves. In the diagonal, the price rose in five distinct waves once it entered the channel, with Wave (v) throwing over the top and being met with heavy resistance, which happens to be at the 1.618 extension of Wave A. While this is nearly a perfect diagonal per the rules, one issue I will point out is that Wave (iv) stopped just short of Wave (i) territory. Typically in a diagonal it should retrace into Wave (i); however, I’ll consider this to be close enough. If the price were to move higher, the next target would be the 2.00 extension of A ($612.70). This would be near the previous ATH, which would signal a flat correction. While this is not impossible, I am going to stick with my initial instinct that the price will reverse around this level when other market indicators are taken into consideration. More on that later. On the weekly chart, there is volume divergence and a major gap that was started this week at $570. Additionally, if Wave (B) were to end this week, it may end up with less volume than Wave (A). Since Wave (A) lasted for 8 weeks (a Fibonacci number), my box for Wave (C) is the next highest in the sequence — 13. This is just a guess, but if we were to see a similar pattern play out, AMEX:SPY should bottom out in late July or early August. The Weekly 200MA should be an important area of support, so be sure to keep an eye on that. Also, do not forget to check the Monthly chart. Here we can see that April has a very long downside wick. I would expect to see this get filled in. Lastly, on the daily chart, here is a recap of where we are in relation to my previous idea calling for $580 on SPY. As I predicted, the price popped above the 100MA and is finding resistance. The 100MA is ready to cross the 200MA, which can be thought of as a second death cross, if you will. I also have boxes here to show the unfilled gaps to the downside. With the trend being this exhausted, I would expect to see both get filled in soon. Bearing all of this in mind, some people may argue that the technicals do not matter in this environment. After all, some of the headwinds that caused the first crash have dissipated and recession fears seem to be waning. While I won’t argue against any of that, there are other signs that the market is not out of the woods yet. Looking beyond SPY, TVC:US10Y has been on the rise and is on track to make a higher high. I’m targeting 5% over the coming weeks. I have another idea that looks more closely into this so I won’t elaborate any further in this post; however, this is one sign that institutions are risk-averse when it comes to the US economy. The other component of this assessment is that the dollar appears to be heading lower. The chart above is inverted to more easily show what appears to be a classic impulse wave structure entering Wave 5, which could take TVC:DXY to the 1.618 extension of Wave 1 — around $96.68. If this were to play out, the dollar index would reach its lowest level since March 2022. This could spur a debt crisis where the Fed will have to make difficult decisions. If they start cutting rates to lower yields, it could also add further downside pressure to the dollar, which could make finding the right balance difficult. Keeping rates higher for longer and buying back Treasuries would be the preferred route, but Powell could face mounting political pressure to start making cuts if it seems the situation is getting out of hand, and could lead to more trouble down the road. This strain could be a possible fundamental backing for a stock market sell-off, so it is important to pay attention to. Lastly, the final signs that indicate to me that a reversal is coming soon is that this uptrend is losing breadth. This is evident when looking at indices that are not weighted so heavily by mega cap tech stocks, such as TVC:DJI and $RUT. It was striking to see AMEX:DIA and AMEX:IWM down Tuesday and Wednesday while AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ inched higher. On AMEX:DIA , the 100MA is starting to cross the 200MA and volume is picking up. Once tech starts selling off, we will see the other major indexes tumble. I could keep going on and on, but you get the point. Here is TVC:VIX at a critical support level and starting to reverse higher. One last comment on B waves is that it is dangerous to follow the herd during times like these. Trust the technicals, and when something seems off — trust your instincts. We will never know what news is around the corner, but financial markets are so vast that we should assume that all factors known and unknown to the general public are being priced in real time. As the next phase of the downtrend gets going, it will be easier to predict the bottom with greater accuracy. For now, I’m keeping the range wide and will look for $400–$450. As always, thank you for reading and let me know what you think.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
21
Magnificent Seven: Still Magnificent? Or Diverging for Good?The Nasdaq 100 has bounced, but under the surface, the “Magnificent Seven” are no longer marching in sync. And this divergence matters, especially if you’re trading QQQ or using it as a momentum proxy. ⚔️ Leadership Rotation in Real Time - Nvidia (NVDA): Still a beast. Making fresh highs, clear institutional momentum. - Microsoft (MSFT): Quiet strength — not flashy, but technically clean. - Meta, Amazon: Holding up, consolidating after major runs. - Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA): Weak links. AAPL can't find a bid. TSLA is stuck below major resistance. Trading QQQ directly? Consider weighting your thesis by what’s working under the hood. - QQQ reclaimed the 200-day MA with the May 12's gap echoing the broader S&P move. - Look for a retest of the resistance and the previous high of 540 - Play breakouts with confirmation, or mean-reverting pullbacks. 🧠 Final Take The Magnificent Seven are splitting into two camps: those still driving the rally, and those dragging it.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JinDao_Tai
Going for the trees and not the forest in AsiaAsia is big and have many countries with different population size, economic growth, cycles and strong and weak sectors. A quick look at this chart reveals the top 3 countries ETF that you would have made better returns than the SPX would be the India, Japan and Taiwan ETFs. Is that why WB is so keen to invest in the trading houses of Japan? Next to buying the same companies as WB (it would costs more for foreigners not having local access to Japan market) the next best option is to buy an ETF. Do your homework, check the expense ratio, composition of companies, how the funds are invested, years of launch, funds size, etc. As usual, please DYODD
LSE:XMJDLong
by dchua1969
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 15, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Today The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April PPI data at 8:30 AM ET. This report will provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, following the recent Consumer Price Index data that showed inflation easing to a four-year low. 🛍️ Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ) Earnings Report Walmart is set to release its earnings today, offering a glimpse into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Investors will be watching closely for any indications of how inflation and trade policies are impacting retail performance. 👟 Foot Locker Acquired by JD Sports ( NASDAQ:JD ) JD Sports has officially acquired Foot Locker ( NYSE:FL ) for $1.6 billion ($24 per share). The deal aims to consolidate market share in the sportswear and athletic retail sector, with JD expanding its U.S. footprint. Foot Locker shares surged 67% premarket following the news. 💻 Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) Faces AI Export Rule Implementation The U.S. government's AI Diffusion Rule comes into effect today, potentially restricting Nvidia's chip sales to certain foreign markets. This regulatory change could influence Nvidia's stock performance and has broader implications for the tech sector. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 15: 8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 10:00 AM ET: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales for March ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SCO Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 051425Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 19.2/61.80% Chart time frame:D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
AMEX:SCO
by fibonacci6180
What Makes a Chart Tradable – Part TwoIn the previous post , we explored the foundations of technical trading. We examined how market behavior can appear structured even when it results from randomness, how bias affects interpretation and how volatility persistence helps explain why certain moves tend to cluster rather than appear in isolation. This post builds on that foundation by focusing on how to recognize meaningful movement and determine whether a chart structure is tradable. Technical charts often present a wide range of setups, patterns, and interpretations. But a core distinction must be made between coincidental formations and actual price behavior driven by imbalance. Not all movements are equal, and recognizing the difference between random fluctuation and purposeful structure is essential. A common assumption in technical analysis is that certain patterns or shapes inherently provide a specific outcome. This assumption is problematic without a defined context. The ability to recognize a flag or wedge does not imply statistical validity. For a price movement to be tradable, there should be characteristics that suggest underlying buying or selling pressure. Unusual Movement To determine whether a price move is meaningful, it must be assessed in relation to what is typical for that market. All assets have their own average range, pace and rhythm. When price breaks from that baseline through unusually strong or sustained movement, it can signal momentum or imbalance. What makes these moves relevant is not their size alone, but the fact that they differ from normal behavior. This kind of shift may reflect changes in supply and demand or a reaction to new information. Such movements could mark a change in behavior and can serve as reference points. Their value lies in being statistically uncommon, which may suggest that market conditions have changed. Pullbacks as Rebalance Following strong directional movement, price tends to enter a state of reversion or pause. This is known as a pullback, a controlled retracement .It is not merely a pause. It reflects a psychological reset and the temporary rebalancing of order flow in response to imbalance. Not all pullbacks are viable. For a setup to be considered tradable, the retracement must occur in the context of a meaningful prior move. When the underlying trend is intact and the pullback is controlled, the structure can offer a more reliable opportunity. The Role of Standardization Trading should be based on discretion. It involves interpretation, context and deliberate decision-making. But without structure, it risks becoming inconsistent and reactive. Therefore movement and momentum should be measurable. What appears meaningful must be evaluated relative to the asset’s own historical behavior, not assumed based on surface-level appearance. Without a reference, the evaluation may lack foundation. Measurement supports model building. Standardization supports disciplined execution. A trader might believe a move is strong based on visual cues or pattern familiarity, but if it lacks historical context or fails to meet defined criteria, that evaluation could be flawed. Framework and Models There are categories of tools that can be incorporated to support standardization. The choice is not fixed and should be based on personal preference, methods and research. Example: Volatility Measure: Could be used to confirm when price moves outside a volatility-based envelope, indicating movement beyond the average range. Momentum Measure: Could be used to confirm whether current price action is faster or stronger compared to recent historical behavior. Such models are used to define context, not to predict outcomes. They help standardize analysis and filter out questionable movements and patterns. Conclusion The textbook patterns often referenced on their own do not create edge. Tradable charts are those where meaningful movement, defined by momentum, imbalance and structure, can be observed and evaluated using standardized methods. The purpose is not precision but repeatability. Discretionary trading is built on contextual evaluation supported by consistency and objective tools.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by StockLeave
SPY using the DXY as a ratio for dollar fluctuationSimple plotting the SPY against the DXY and running parallel channels from significant pivots can help... But then using a Log scale to help smooth out erratic price movements and allow more linear price analysis you get what is above. Just a simple set of levels that are found by taking the same point on both graphs and then doubling the channel on the SPY graph so to better see the price, consider it a fractal of sorts in regard to the original channel. Below is the original channels without Log scale...:
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
IWM: Going to pump? Quick trade setup**IWM 15m – Smart Money Concepts + ORB Breakdown** _Published by WaverVanir_International_LLC on May 14, 2025_ **Setup** - ORB (09:30–09:45) established supply at **209.30** (Weak High) and demand near **206.62–206.27**. - Smart Money Concepts zones: - **Premium (Supply):** 209.30 - **Equilibrium (Fair Value):** 208.52 - **Discount (Demand):** 206.57–206.21 **Price Action** 1. **Break of Structure (BOS)** below the recent consolidation low signals bearish continuation. 2. Retracement tested the **38.2–61.8% Fibonacci** levels (~208.67–208.09), aligning with Equilibrium (Investopedia, n.d.-a). 3. Failed reclaim of Premium confirms seller strength. **Trade Plan** - **Entry:** Short on bounce failure at Equilibrium (~207.80) - **Stop-Loss:** Above Premium (209.30) - **Targets:** 1. Discount Zone: 206.57–206.21 2. Extended: 205.71 (1.618 Fib) **Risk/Reward:** ≥2:1 Stay disciplined—only trade with defined risk. GLTA! 🚀
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 14 Mayo 2025QQQ SpotGamma Chart Analysis – May 14, 2025 📊 Key Context This chart shows the options-derived levels for QQQ using SpotGamma’s tools. It combines key gamma levels (Call Walls, Put Walls), liquidity zones, and potential reversal targets. 🧱 Major Resistance Zones Level Description 525 🔔 Call Wall (Maximum) – Strongest resistance, potential reversal zone. 520 ⚠️ Call Wall (2) – Price might stall here. Likely target or short entry. 518.42 🎯 RB Head – Reversal Block Head; strong confluence for decision-making. 517 🛑 Call Wall (1) – Minor resistance, price may hesitate here. 📌 Area marked in red: "Possible Selling or Target Zone" – Ideal spot for profit-taking if long, or potential short if momentum shifts. 🛡️ Support & Demand Zones Level Description 516 🟡 Put Wall (2) – Minor support zone. 515-514.9 🟨 RB Bottom / Put Wall (1) – High probability buy zone. 510 🔵 Put Wall (3) – Strong support level, possible bounce point. 🟡 Yellow box zone is highlighted as a "Possible Buy/Sell Zone" – high activity expected due to overlapping gamma levels. 🔀 Scenarios Outlined Bullish Path: Break above 518.42 → target 520 → possible extension to 525. Bearish Path: Rejection at 518.42 or 520 → pullback to 515 or 510 for possible bounce. Neutral to Reversal: Consolidation between 514-518 likely leads to explosive breakout or breakdown.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JCAVGROUP
Energy ETF Is Still Below Last Decade’s HighsThe SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF has been plagued by some long-term negatives, but some traders may see those issues becoming more positive. Today’s idea uses two-week candles to give a long-term view. The first key pattern is the 2023 low of $75.36, which XLE tested and held during last month’s tariff panic. That may suggest support is in place. Second, the bounce occurred around the peaks of 2016 and 2018. Has old resistance become new support? Third, XLE is still below the $101.52 level where it topped 11 years ago. That makes it the only SPDR sector fund that hasn’t made a new record high this decade. Next, XLE is also the only SPDR fund with a single-digit price/earnings ratio (according to VettaFi). Those last two points reflect the kind of negativity overshadowing the sector for years. But, the ESG trend may have reached its peak. There’s also been a flood of bad news, including fears of tariff-induced recessions and OPEC’s unexpected supply increase. Now some people may expect the pendulum to swing the other way as U.S.-China tensions ease. That could make some investors wonder whether XLE’s long-term neutrality and lower multiples represent value opportunities. That could be especially true with the Federal Reserve leaning more hawkish and yields inching higher. Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (XLE) 1-year: -13.92% 5-years: +111.84% 10-year: -0.48% (As of April 30, 2025) Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
AMEX:XLE
by TradeStation
SPY Technical Outlook – Bullish Continuation Favored Above $584SPY remains in a strong uptrend, confirmed by a bull flag breakout on the daily chart, with price currently testing the $588–590 resistance zone. A rising channel on the hourly chart has guided price since early May, with repeated bounces off the lower trendline around $578–582. Recent volume expansion on breakouts reinforces bullish conviction. On the 15-minute chart, a breakout and retest setup around $585–586 suggests a low-risk intraday long opportunity. The intraday VWAP and moving averages support this level, with momentum favoring a push toward $590. A failure to hold $584 could open downside to $582 or $578. The near-term trading bias remains bullish above $584, with targets of $590–592. Short-term traders should look to buy defined pullbacks with tight risk, while watching for volume to confirm continuation. If $590 breaks with strength, swing targets extend to $595–600. Conversely, a breakdown of the hourly channel would favor quick shorts targeting support zones below.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackCandleTrader
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-14 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to stay somewhat elevated. The Carryover pattern is essentially a pattern saying, "expect more of the same type of trending today". I would suggest the SPY/QQQ are somewhat extended and may pause a bit today. I shared a chart I created back on March 23, 2025 that I found very interesting - showing a big rally in late-April/early-May. If that chart continues to be accurate - it suggests the markets may attempt a reversion move to the downside over the next 20-30+ days. Time will tell if my predictions play out accurately or not. Gold is moving into new BEARISH trending on the GOLD Cycle Patterns. After an extended consolidation phase in metals, this shift in the trend models was going to happen at some point. Now, we need to see if Gold/Silver can hold above recent support or not. Even though I believe Gold/Silver are poised for another big rally, the disruptions related to the global economy and tariffs seems to have taken some of wind out of the sails of the metals rally (for now). Bitcoin continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Keep an eye on what BTCUSD does over the next 7-15+ days as I believe it will lead the US markets in trending (still). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY Broke The Sine-Wave Center - Not GoodWe see the 3 tiny arrows—proof that price was rejected by those who knew. The Trend Barrier, once solid support, cracked without resistance. Price dropped right back into the Medianline set. The small pullback? Totally expected—just like the Medianline rules suggest. Then came the brutal drop, textbook-style, straight to the Centerline. The springboard move back up to the U-MLH and the Trend Barrier? No surprise—if you understand the Medianline Framework. Because this is just P2. Also—watch the white line. That’s what I call the Sine Wave. Why does it matter? Because the center point (where the red pullback arrow is) often gets breached in a fake move... right before price reverses hard. From P2: down, down, down... lower than P1. AND THAT SHOULD SCARE THE HELL OUT OF YOU! …if I’m right 😈 But if it fails? Then we’re looking at a monstrous V-shape recovery—one that could send the indexes skyrocketing. So there you have it. What’s your direction? Let me know—and tell me why! §8-)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
8