Jeremy Chew SPY Notes 6/12/2025🧠 SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) — Technical Summary
Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Latest Close: ~$603.75
After-Hours Price: ~$595 (notable drop of ~1.45%)
🟩 Recent Price Action:
Strong rally off March/April lows (~458) has pushed SPY through major Fibonacci levels.
Sharp uptrend support (green line) has held since bottom, but is now being tested.
Today’s after-hours drop to $595 places price back below the 78.6% Fib retracement level (~587) — a potential warning sign of a reversal or short-term weakness.
🔍 Fibonacci Levels (from ~644 to ~458 swing):
Level Price Status
23.6% ~518.2 Support (cleared)
38.2% ~536.4 Support
50.0% ~551.4 Support
61.8% ~566.1 Support
78.6% ~587.2 Currently being tested
100% ~644 Major resistance
🔺 Support Levels (Key Areas to Watch):
~587.2: 78.6% Fib + Bollinger Band middle (critical support now at risk).
~566–568: Fib 61.8% + horizontal consolidation support.
~551: Fib 50%, secondary support if breakdown continues.
Green uptrend line: Dynamic support — near convergence zone with ~587.
🔻 Resistance Levels:
~603–606: Immediate resistance (price rejected here intraday).
~615–620: Horizontal price shelf from Feb highs.
~644: Major swing high from earlier in 2025.
📈 Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Price was hugging the upper band earlier today — sign of bullish momentum.
After-hours dip to $595 pushes price toward the 20-day SMA (~593) — possible mean reversion or early correction forming.
📉 Volume & Momentum:
Volume during the rally has been moderate to low, suggesting limited conviction.
No major volume spike despite the recent breakout attempt.
If selling volume increases tomorrow, it may confirm a short-term bearish reversal.
⚠️ Interpretation:
The after-hours dip to $595 is a yellow flag. It:
Falls below the breakout level of ~603.
Threatens the 78.6% Fib (which is a typical exhaustion zone in retracements).
May break below the sharp uptrend support line, triggering profit-taking.
Short-term bias: Shifting from bullish to neutral/bearish unless it reclaims 603 quickly on volume.
🧭 Next Key Watchpoints:
Bulls want to see:
A bounce from ~593–587 zone.
A reclaim of 603 with strong volume.
Bears want to see:
Breakdown below 587 with follow-through.
Confirmation below trendline and push toward 566.
