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SPY bounce to $580MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom of upward trending channels (period 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is spiked negative, just like September Price at near Fibonacci level, 0.618 retracement In at open on Monday. I would like to see price gap down to $563 (0.5 fib retrace), or $557 (100 period channel). My plan is to buy 1 position at Monday's open, 1 more position at $563 and 3 positions at $537.35. Stop loss is 1% of my purchase on Monday. Target is $580 or channel top
AMEX:SPYLong
by chancethepug
TLT Flipping ResistanceIn my last post I discussed TLT as a great trade based on a technical basis and also confluent the macro-economic picture. With Trump as the new elect president, it is interesting that the narrative of a flare-up in inflation has not skyed yields and TLT recovers from a nice drop to 90$. Here I am showing the last 2 times where TLT bottomed and then rallied. Each period of time took about 60 days give or take a few to thrust up through resistance. I believe we are experiencing a similar bottoming process now. There is a good chance that we receive some more opportunities to accumulate shares and leaps near 90$ again. Flipping Resistance: As you can see, I have some trendlines drawn that seem to be boxing price in and out of certain areas. I believe we will see a flipping of this diagonal down resistance line and TLT move to the upside to test some horizontal resistance in the 100-105$ area. Quotes from the great theologian Martin Luther: "Every man must do two things alone; he must do his own believing and his own dying." "All who call on God in true faith, earnestly from the heart, will certainly be heard, and will receive what they have asked and desired" "Is it not a thing most abominable, that God who feeds so many mouths, should be held in such low esteem by me, that I will not trust him to feed me? Yea, that a guilder, thirty-eight cents, should be valued more highly than God, who pours out his treasures everywhere in rich profusion. For the world is full of God and his works. He is everywhere present with his gifts, and yet we will not trust in him, nor accept his visitation." Hebrews 11:1 Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by rhall6451
SPY pullback from $600MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Buying calls on SPXU Buying Puts on SPY Price at or approaching top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level VBSM spiked positive Price near 4.618 Fibonacci level Buying SPXU or SPY puts when SPY tags $600 Target is $587 or channel bottom NO STOP LOSS Will hold to year end or until target reached
AMEX:SPYShort
by chancethepug
Opening (IRA): SPY Dec 20th 505 Covered Call... for a 501.71 debit. Comments: Re-upping at a higher strike than the one I just took off, looking to capture an additional little increment of upmove that I missed out on. If you wanted to be really anal about it, you could capture all of the up move over time (or capture the same increment more than once). For example, say I just took off the November 15th 500 covered call at or near max (e.g., 499.80). I can then shop for a monied covered call to capture the next increment of movement from 499.80 up, so I'd want to get into a setup for 499.80 or less. This would be the Jan 31st 506 covered call, currently trading for 499.72 and would ostensibly capture the move from 499.72 to 506 (assuming, naturally, a finish above 506). In the next iteration, I would look to capture the move from 506 up, and so on, all the way until my short call was at-the-money or out-of-the-money, depending on what I was trying to do with the setup.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
$ARKK caught a #Whale in $55C 1/17/2024 (Profit Target @ $69)5,000 Open Interest on this contract until this morning when we found a whale/institution buying up probably 10k 55C contracts for Jan 17... This is a HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD PLAY given the holdings in AMEX:ARKK , but something tells me it can get to MONKEY ie $69 , and some whale or some bank also believes the juice could be worth the squeeze on this former high flyer... Past All Time Highs at $158 ... $53 now = Buy Low? - Probabilities_R_Us
AMEX:ARKKLong
by Prophecies_R_Us
Opening (IRA): TAN Jan 17th 33 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit. Comments: Adding to my TAN position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on. Here, going Plain Jane short put, since there isn't a great advantage to going monied covered call here because the IV skew isn't between the call and put sides isn't significant. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 31.99 Max Profit: 1.01 ROC at Max: 3.16% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: 1.58% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TQQQ August 16th 73 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.80 debit. Comments: High IV at 55%. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against in the August 16th monthly to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I looked at doing something in the 45 DTE wheelhouse, which would be the August 30th expiry, but it was less liquid than the monthly, so opted to go shorter duration, with the plan being to roll out to the September monthly should we get further weakness and/or a test of 73. Otherwise, I'll look to just take profit at my standard 50% max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.80 Max Profit: 2.20 ROC at Max: 3.11% 50% Max: 1.10 ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Are Silver Miners Poised to Outperform Gold Miners?Introduction: At the start of 2024, we were strong advocates for precious metals, and this strategy is paying off. Gold is consistently reaching new all-time highs, while silver is surging to levels not seen in over twelve years, finally capturing public attention. However, during a genuine bull run in precious metals, it's crucial to watch for mining stocks to outperform the spot prices of the metals. The lesser-known secret among gold enthusiasts is that investing in mining stocks often yields higher returns than holding physical metals. Analysis: Spot Prices vs. Mining Stocks: While gold and silver spot prices are making impressive gains, the true potential lies in mining stocks. Historically, mining stocks outperform physical metals during strong bull runs because of their leveraged exposure to rising metal prices. Silver Outperformance: We focus on the potential for silver to outperform gold, especially as silver has been gaining momentum. In this context, it's key to monitor the performance of silver miners (SIL) compared to gold miners (GDX). Broadening Wedge Pattern: Currently, the ratio between SIL and GDX is forming a broadening wedge pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signal a surge in silver mining stocks, indicating a shift where silver miners may start to outshine their gold counterparts. Conclusion: As precious metals continue their strong performance, the focus shifts to mining stocks, where the potential for higher returns lies. A breakout in the SIL-to-GDX ratio could mark the beginning of a new phase, with silver miners taking the lead. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on this ratio as a key indicator of the next big move in the precious metals sector. What are your thoughts on this potential shift? Share your insights below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SIL-to-GDX ratio, the broadening wedge pattern, and potential breakout targets) Tags: #Gold #Silver #MiningStocks #PreciousMetals #SIL #GDX #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:SIL
by Richtv_official
SPY Near Resistance: Continuation or Pullback?Analysis: Price Trend & Momentum: SPY has shown a strong rally, breaking above previous resistance levels and establishing a new high at $596.65. However, the price action appears to be consolidating near the high, which might indicate a potential pause or a pullback before the next move. Volume Analysis: Volume has been decreasing as the price approached the $595-$596 zone, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction at these elevated levels. Watch for a volume increase as an indication of continuation or reversal. Moving Averages: The 9 EMA is currently acting as support, with the price staying above it. This indicates that bulls are still in control. A break below the 9 EMA could lead to a retest of the 21 EMA, which is currently sitting around the $583.27 level. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $596.65 (recent high and potential double-top formation) Support Levels: First Support: $583.27 (strong support near the 21 EMA) Second Support: $579.47 (previous breakout level) Key Support: $575.58 (major pivot level, failure to hold here could lead to a deeper correction) Critical Support: $567.89 (previous swing low, below which bearish sentiment could intensify) MACD Analysis: MACD is showing a bearish crossover on the 1-hour chart, suggesting a loss of momentum. This could be an early sign of a pullback or consolidation phase. Price Action Expectation: Bullish Scenario: If SPY can hold above $595.58 and break above $596.65 with strong volume, we could see a continuation towards the $600 psychological level. Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold the $583.27 support could lead to a pullback towards the $579.47-$575.58 zone, where buyers might step in. A break below $575.58 would be a significant bearish signal. Conclusion: SPY has rallied significantly in the past few sessions, driven by strong market momentum. However, the current consolidation near resistance could indicate a potential pullback or a pause before the next leg up. Keep an eye on volume and the key support levels for confirmation of direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please perform your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
FBTC: Break Out After 12 Months of Sideways - DCA TradeAll the white lines are buys. My weighted average price per share would be somewhere in the middle. I Dollar Cost Averaged into the position from basically the launch of the product on exchanges earlier this year, Say March 24. The trade looks to finally be playing out. Long Term Hold position for me, and will add on higher timeframe (1 Day, 3 Day, Weekly) oversold conditions outside a normal standard deviation. Fun time to be a trader at the moment.
AMEX:FBTCLong
by BitInfo12
Opening (IRA): SMH October 18th 220 Covered StraddleComments: Third highest 30-day IV (46.1%) on my options highly liquid ETF board behind BITO and TQQQ. There are two different aspects to this trade, the first being the 220 monied covered call with the short call at the -75 delta. I had to route this as two separate trades and got filled for covered call aspect for a 213.35 debit. The same strike short put is at the +21 delta strike, I got filled for a 5.05 credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 428.30 Break Even: 213.35 for the covered call; 214.95 for the short put Max Profit: 6.65 (for the monied covered call) + 5.05 (for the short put) = 11.70 ROC at Max: 2.73% 50% Max: 5.85 ROC at 50% Max: 1.37% Generally speaking, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; otherwise, I'll look to roll out the short straddle as a unit to maintain net delta at or below +50 (100 delta for the shares, -75 for the short call, + 25 for the short put).
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines