SPY needs to hold mondays low and recover over tuesdays lowSPY got a huge gap down due to GDP data. We should see if it will be able to hold Mondays low. Right now it is between mondays low and tuesdays low
ETF market
$IBIT downside to $33NASDAQ:IBIT looks like it's topping up here.
If we turn down here, it's likely that we sweep the April lows and fall further down to the lower support levels.
After we hit the bottom, lows should be in for a couple of years and we should see a nice bull run higher.
Don't be terrified/tarrified !!! It's time to go LONG not SHORT9th April is a crucial day , imo of viewing this chart.
He was not bluffing the people as it turns out. However, after a week, the market got terrified and heads south but noticed it did not formed a lower low from 9th April candle.
25th April candle tells us it has breaks out from the resistance level and the last two days have been pretty bullish as well.
I believe the media is getting fatigue of the tariffs matter and we can see that US and China are behind the curtains "negotiating" while leaving the market guessing who really called who. That was the decoy and it is not important other than face saving. More importantly, the chart has once again convinced us that the buyers are encouraged and prove their actions by longing the market.
So whose buying ? Cathy Woods
Could the price action reverse ? Of course, though I think the probability is not high. Hedge funds are already queuing to buy bank shares based on favourable Q1 results , a positive sign.
As usual, please DYODD
INDIA: Winner of Trade War?India could benefit from a global trade war due to its low trade-to-GDP ratio, meaning it has less to lose and more to gain by becoming an alternative manufacturing hub
SPXL – Bullish Structure Reclaim in ProgressNice setup right here — this multi-timeframe view of SPXL (S&P 500 3x Bull ETF) paints a compelling story, especially with how clean that 0.382 level at $126.23 is holding across multiple frames.
⚡SPXL – Bullish Structure Reclaim in Progress
Don’t miss what’s happening on this chart.
📍Price just reclaimed the 0.382 Fib level ($126.23) and is now flirting with resistance at $128.01, right under the 0.5 zone ($138.27) on the higher time frame.
👁 Here’s what I’m watching:
4H shows bullish continuation and stair-stepping toward the diagonal resistance.
15D and 4D show clean higher lows forming.
Macro support is locked in between $115.84–$122.02, giving us a nice demand zone.
⚠️ $138.27–$150.30 is the next key region — and if this momentum holds, we may see a full retrace back to the previous high ($189.26) long-term.
🎯 Trade plan:
Holding above $126.23 keeps this bullish.
If we retest $122–$115 and bounce, it could offer a high-R setup.
📚 Remember: zooming out brings clarity. Structure leads, candles follow.
XLV Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042925Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 135/61.80%
Chart time frame: C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
QQQ retests the 50 DMAQQQ is retesting its 50 day average will we go back to the 200 does the bullmarket continue will the fed bend the knee on rates will tariffs hurt ? find out next
$USO to $29-42 before a bottom is inAMEX:USO broke down from a long term that started in March 2020 and is now breaking down below support at $67.
The most likely outcome is a continuation down to the lower support levels at $29-33.
I won't rule out the possibility of one more retest of the trend line ($73-75) before continuing down further. An invalidation of the short would be a break over the $83 level.
Otherwise, downside is the most likely outcome from here.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
XLU eyes on $79: Key Resistance about to Break watch RetestXLU trying to recapture the "safe haven" of utilities.
Just pierced a well proven resistance at $78.64-79.00
Looking for a clean retest for the ideal long entries.
WCBR watch $27.88 above 26.14 below: Key fibs to Break or RejectWCBR trying to recover from the tariff tantrums.
Just hit a Genesis fib at $27.88 that may cause a dip.
If it does get a dip, then watch Golden Genesis at $26.14
KRE eyes on $54.xx: Major Resistance zone to Break or RejectKRE recovering nicely from the tariff tantrums.
But up against a major resistance zone $54.23-54.79
Want a Break-n-Retest or dip to lower fib at $51.39
See a pattern??With both highlighted spots we see massive panic and then a quick rebound, I think a simmlar thing could happen here, with the current one.
TQQQ Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025TQQQ Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025
📈 55.10 55.60
📉 52.10 51.60
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
SPY/QQQ NQ/ES 29 de Abril 2025Market Outlook (QQQ / NQ Analysis)
📅 Date: April 29, 2025
🕰 Timeframe: 30-minute
📈 Asset: Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) / NQ Futures
📊 Gamma Reference: SpotGamma levels with Zero Gamma & Put/Call Walls
🧠 Key Levels & Price Map
Level Type QQQ Price NQ Equivalent Comment
Call Wall (3) 478 19760 / 19800 🔼 Target 6 - Bullish Exhaustion
Target Long 477 19720 🔼 Target 5
Call Wall / RB Head 475 19620 🔼 Target 4 / High Confluence
Call Wall 472 19500 🔼 Target 3
RB Bottom 470.89 — Intermediate Resistance
Put Wall (1) 470 19420 🔼 Target 2 (bullish if broken)
Fib 0.5 468.78 — Reversal Zone
Put Wall (2) 467 19340 🔽 Target 1 - Short Bias Begins
Put Wall (3) 465 19220 🔽 Target 3 - Strong Bearish Zone
📉 Gamma & Sentiment Context
Zero Gamma: At 468 – market may be more volatile below this level.
Vol Trigger: At 467 – below this level, dealers may hedge by selling, increasing downside pressure.
Put Walls: Act as potential support or reversal zones (465, 467, 470).
Call Walls: Act as resistance or bullish break levels (472, 475, 478).
🧭 Possible Scenarios
📈 Bullish Path
If price breaks above 470, next long target is 472, then 475 (high confluence with RB Head and Call Wall).
Above 475, potential acceleration toward 478–479 (high call gamma zone).
📉 Bearish Path
Rejection at 470–472 could lead to a retest of 467, then 465.
Below 465, expect a push toward 19300–19220 NQ, aligning with the lower Put Walls.
XLY eyes on $198: Major resistance zone for recovery wave XLYXLY is a key etf/index to evaluate tariff sentiment.
Currently fighting a major resistance $197.88-193.23
Look for a Break-and-Run or Reject hard from here.
AIQ eyes on $37: Double Fib resistance to Break or Reject AIQ recovering nicely after AI demand show to continue.
Currently testing a double fib resistance at $36.99-37.01
Looking for a Brean-n-Retest or if dips to $35.20-35.24
MSTU (T-REX 2× Long MSTR Daily)Chart targets
Support at the Ichimoku Kumo top (~ 7.40 – 7.50) on 1 H & daily – this is your “buy zone.”
Initial upside to 8.10–8.30 — where yesterday’s 5 min candles peaked and the daily cloud resistance sits.
Secondary target ~ 9.00 — prior swing high from last December.
CSP entries (May 16)
Sell the 7.50 puts CSP's
Only do this if MSTU holds 7.40–7.50 on an intraday pullback.
Keep a stop if price closes below 7.30 on 30 min.
Alternatively, stagger 7.25 & 7.00 strikes to pick up extra premium if you want deeper support.
MSTR (MicroStrategy) – Earnings on May 1
Date: May 1, 2025
Street consensus: +$0.06 EPS vs prior miss of –$3.03.
Social sentiment: extremely polarized – Bitcoin bulls are hopeful a beat will turbo-charge the stock, but skeptics point to ongoing cash burn and debt load.
Plan:
Stay size-light into the print.
Look for a volatility crush post-earnings to sell short-dated calls (or buy deep ITM CSP) if you’re neutral-to-bullish.
If they beat and BTC holds above 95 K, MSTR could rip back toward its January highs near $540 – but that’s a multi-day swing, not today’s game.
Risk Management:
MSTU CSP: don’t sell more than 1/2 your normal size—earnings skew implied vol across the board.
News watch: any Tweet from Michael Saylor or a surprise Bitcoin ETF update can blow these levels out in minutes.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Anticipation Builds for Key Economic Data: Investors are on edge as they await a series of critical economic reports this week, including GDP growth figures and the April jobs report. Concerns are mounting that recent tariff policies may have begun to weigh on economic performance, with forecasts suggesting a significant slowdown in growth.
💼 Earnings Season in Full Swing: Major corporations are set to report earnings today, including AstraZeneca, Honeywell, Regeneron, PayPal, PACCAR, Kraft Heinz, Ares Capital, SoFi, Zebra Technologies, Incyte, Repligen, and Commvault. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into how companies are navigating the current economic landscape.
📉 Market Volatility Persists Amid Trade Tensions: The stock market continues to experience volatility as investors grapple with the implications of ongoing trade disputes and tariff implementations. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could further dampen economic growth and corporate profitability.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 29:
📦 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET):
Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March. These figures provide early insights into trade balances and inventory levels, which are critical for assessing economic momentum.
📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. A decline in confidence could signal reduced consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. This data helps assess the health of the job market and potential wage pressures.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
IWM: Trade PlanTechnical Analysis:
Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone.
Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203).
Target Zones:
First target: ~$190
Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher.
Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025):
Macro Risk:
Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025.
Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive).
Earnings Season:
Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025).
"Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM.
Market Sentiment:
Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows.
Summary:
IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup.
Hashtags:
#IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
QQQ Long-term Key LevelsIdentified Key levels for Long-term Holdings
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SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 4-hour chartTrend: Bearish since late April (drop from $560.00 to $546.58). Red candles dominate.
Indicators:
Trend Strength: 13.87% (strong).
Volatility: Low.
Squeeze: Yes (imminent breakout).
Volume Sentiment: Bearish (selling pressure).
Volume: Rises on declines (red bars), confirms bearish trend.
Support/Resistance: Broke support at $550.00, next support near $540.00.
Patterns: Recent consolidation with small candles, squeeze suggests strong move soon, likely downward.
Conclusion: Bearish trend confirmed, selling pressure and squeeze indicate potential further drop to $540.00.
SmartTrend Indicator @tradingbauhaus
$HACK and $SMH : The road to outperformanceHere in this space, we regularly check on the 2 subsectors i.e. Semis and Cybersecurity within the broader Tech sector. NASDAQ:SMH and AMEX:HACK have always outperformed the broader Tech sector ETF $XLK. During the last couple of quarters, we have seen the Cybersecurity sector has shown relative outperformance in comparison to the Semiconductor subsector within the technology index. When the NASDAQ:SMH lost more than 37% of its value during the recent downturn, while AMEX:HACK only lost 25% of its value. IN this blog space we have time and again focused on the topic of intrasector rotation. On 15th April I told you guys that the ratio chart of NASDAQ:SMH / AMEX:HACK looks overdone, and we might be set up for a reversal.
With both the sectors off of their local lows we can see that there is potential upside in both the sectors. But the question comes which one will outperform the other and if both of then outperform the broader index $XLK.
As I opined on 15th of April NASDAQ:SMH looks to have a higher BETA from its lows in comparison to $HACK. In the last downturns we have seen from its lows of 2022 NASDAQ:SMH 3Xed its price and AMEX:HACK 2X in the same time period. So, if you are looking for relative outperformance in the near to medium term then we should rather LONG NASDAQ:SMH over $HACK. And both NASDAQ:SMH and AMEX:HACK will outperform the AMEX:XLK in the near to long term.
Verdict : Long NASDAQ:SMH and $HACK. Overweight $SMH. Sell $XLK.
