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SPY CORRECTION END 2024 - 2025As we can see, there has been a correction since the presentation of the FOMC meeting, with a break in the bullish structure we had in the indices. SPY broke bullish structures in 2-hour and 4-hour timeframes, and we should recover the daily channel to maintain an upward movement in the daily timeframe. Como podemos ver tenemos una correccion desde la presentacion de la reunion de la FOMC, con una ruptura de las estructura alcista que teniamos en los indices, SPY rompio estructuras alcista en temporalidades de 2horas, 4 horas y deberiamos recuperar el canal de la diaria para mantener un movimento alcista en la temporalidad de la diaria.
AMEX:SPY
by alexpv73
Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Signaling a Major ShiftIntroduction: Precious metals are displaying promising price action, warranting a closer look at the gold AMEX:GLD to silver AMEX:SLV ratio. This ratio provides valuable insights during bull markets: Bullish Silver: In a strong bull market, silver typically outperforms gold, causing the ratio to decline. Gold Leading: Recently, gold has taken the lead, advancing in a corrective rally, but there are signs this could change. Analysis: Inverted Saucer Formation: On the gold-to-silver ratio chart, a large inverted saucer formation is emerging. This bearish pattern indicates a potential breakdown below key support levels, signaling silver’s outperformance in the months ahead. What to Watch: A confirmed breakdown of support in this ratio could signal a major shift in favor of silver. If silver outperforms, prices could surge to retest its 2011 highs of $48-$50 next year. Gold Outlook: Despite the shift in favor of silver, gold remains bullish. A breakout could target significant upside, with price projections of $3,300-$3,400. Trade Setup: Silver Bullish Setup: Trigger: A breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio, confirming silver’s relative strength. Target: SLV retesting $48-$50. Stop Loss: Manage risk by placing stops near recent support levels in silver. Gold Bullish Setup: Gold continues to show strength, targeting $3,300-$3,400. Monitor for breakouts in gold prices alongside silver’s potential surge. Conclusion: The precious metals setup looks increasingly bullish. The gold-to-silver ratio is hinting at a shift toward silver outperformance, a hallmark of true bull markets. If this scenario plays out, silver could retest its 2011 highs, while gold targets new all-time highs. This is a chart and setup worth keeping a close eye on in the coming months. Which metal do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the gold-to-silver ratio with the inverted saucer formation, key support levels, and projected breakdown targets. Add gold and silver price charts highlighting bullish setups.) Tags: #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #GLD #SLV #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdeas
AMEX:GLD
by Richtv_official
SPY at a Critical Juncture: Will it Reversal or More Pain Ahead?In the past two days, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has experienced a pronounced downturn, raising critical questions about the next directional move. Today's price action indicates a pivotal moment, with the market consolidating near a key support level at $584. The question remains: is this a pause before a bounce, or a precursor to further downside? This detailed analysis breaks down SPY's current technical setup, provides actionable trade levels, and offers insights into potential scenarios for tomorrow's session. Let’s dive into the charts and indicators to uncover opportunities. Technical Market Trend Analysis 1. Downtrend Confirmation * Price Structure: SPY has formed consistent lower highs and lower lows over the past two sessions, clearly defining a downtrend. The breach of the critical $587 support level early in today’s session amplified selling pressure. * Trendlines: A descending channel on the hourly chart below further confirms bearish control, with price respecting the upper boundary of the channel as resistance. 2. Volume Dynamics * Selling Pressure: Noticeable volume spikes during the declines highlight strong participation by sellers. * Reduced Buying Interest: Rebounds were marked by lower volume, indicating a lack of commitment from buyers. Key Levels to Watch Support Levels 1. $584: The current zone where price consolidates. This is the first line of defense for bulls. 2. $580: Major gamma exposure support level (GEX7). Breaching this level could accelerate downside momentum toward $575. Resistance Levels 1. $587: Immediate resistance. A reclaim of this level would signal strength and could trigger short covering. 2. $590: Aligned with gamma resistance and psychological significance, this is the next target for a bullish breakout. Indicators in Play EMA Analysis * The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are both sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance levels. This reinforces the short-term bearish trend. MACD * The hourly MACD shows bearish momentum, with a widening histogram and a negative crossover. However, a slight tapering in the histogram near the end of the session hints at potential consolidation or a reversal attempt. Options Oscillator and GEX Insights * Gamma Levels: * $584: Current pivot, showing strong put positioning. * $580: Heavy put support; any break below this would likely see rapid downside. * $590: Significant call resistance; a breakout above would indicate a shift in sentiment. * Sentiment: Dominance of 102.7% puts reflects bearish sentiment in the options market. Trading Strategy Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup 1. Entry: Enter long above $587 with confirmation of strong volume. 2. Target: $590 for the first target, $593 for the second. 3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585 to minimize risk. 4. Justification: * Reclaiming $587 would signal a potential reversal or at least a relief rally. * $590 aligns with gamma resistance, offering a logical profit target. Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Setup 1. Entry: Short below $584 with increasing sell volume. 2. Target: $580 for the first target, $575 for the second. 3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585.50 to cap risk. 4. Justification: * A breakdown below $584 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * Heavy put support at $580 would likely provide the next pause point. Market Outlook While the short-term trend is bearish, the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Tomorrow’s session will likely determine whether SPY bounces from oversold conditions or continues its descent. Watch for high-impact news and volume trends to validate directional moves. Conclusion SPY’s price action reflects a decisive moment. Both bulls and bears have clear opportunities depending on how the key levels at $584 and $587 play out. Use disciplined risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys, Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share! So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see. So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second. So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank. So what is going on? Fundamentals The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper. This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold. The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation. Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower. This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money! 2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits. PE ratios I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here... Now for the Math If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video: In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective. Stage 1: Cubic Correation This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%. Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563. These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs. Stage 2: Quartic Correction If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction. This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away. In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/ This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes". Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means. Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477. Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle. Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself). So what does this mean for you the trader? It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean. However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means. Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it. Will we go lower than the cubic mean? Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found. How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means? This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period. We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean. I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/. So where should we be looking to buy? If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means. If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;). Will it happen quicky? The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers. Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week. How do we know if it will go lower? In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up. Summary So kudos to you if you read this long! Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made. For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it. Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants. The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets. Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now. Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
35
Super Simple Buying and Selling Stocks within TradingView.With the market pulling back nearly 14% over the past few days, I decided to take a punt on a potential recovery. I've opened a position in TQQQ , a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 (top 100 tech stocks). In this post, I show how easy it is to place an order using a connected TradingView broker—in my case, TradeStation—and set up a bracket order with a take-profit and stop-loss. If the trade moves against me, the stop-loss automatically manages my risk by closing the position. If it moves in my favor, the take-profit ensures I lock in gains and exit automatically. Of course, these levels can be really easily adjusted manually as the trade progresses, providing flexibility as the stock moves. You could choose to set your levels based on your favorite indicators signals or some other means. This isn’t trading advice—just an example of how you can leverage TradingView’s functionality. It’s real money on the line—my money—so wish me luck! That said, the market could still head lower with ongoing Fed FUD, but I’m holding out hope for a little help from Santa. 🎅
NASDAQ:TQQQEducation
by zAngus
1
Tech Is Ded...So is TA...Muh crystal ball skills are in full display here...everything is too good currently how can markets go down with head honcho Donald duck I mean Trump as POTUS...well that's exactly the point it actually don't matter and it never did lol, bottom shorters from years back are now expert bulls and frothing at the mouth speculating with the can't lose mentality...so what comes next should be quite obvious/natural...the illusion of safety has spread like covid amongst the herd and the only jab that will fix it is a swift uppercut to their accounts (losses). Everything that I visioned playing out 2 or so years ago has come true and it's now time to change sides as I believe there aint much juice left in the tank for bulls, RUT making new highs and dying was one very good top indicator for larger index's as the end is usually marked by a speculative frenzy in smaller stocks popping 20% or so daily which has happened now, I'm expecting mining stocks to have a really good 6-12months from here providing markets do indeed fall for 2 or so years as miners tend to lag a top for about that time. Gl Swoop out.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Swoop6
6
MSTZ to $32....early Christmas giftLet's start 2025 with a bang! This is my last gift for the year. Microstrategy will be tanking with BTC drop and the rate of decrease has noticeably been steep and purposeful. Thankfully, MSTZ is the superstar that will save the day (2x inverse). The gravity is strong with this one, until consolidation around $32. We're looking at 30%ish upside on this puppy. It will go fast so lock and loaded tomorrow and prob close out in a few hours. As always, do your due diligence and best of luck!
CBOE:MSTZLong
by antonini2002
QQQ Sell to $497-501 Weekly Resistance for Buying opportunity A 52 week high was made on Monday, December 16 at $539 on QQQ . The fed Powell released the news he’s cutting rates by a quarter of a percent which caused the market to plummet ,Banks also manipulating the market to get into these buying opportunities. We are currently failing to break above 520 , also struggling to fully break below 515 . We will continue to sell down once we pass 515 . Looking at my chart on the weekly timeframe appears is 501-497 is the actual resistance that we are heading to now. It may look like 515 is the resistance, but in all actuality, it does not appear to be a Stronger demand zone than 500 to 497. Once we get here, look for buying opportunities at the new year will bring in New yearly, highs, and new yearly lows. For now, we should be in puts to $500.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by MuggaMatrix
QQQ - Correction Underway After Recent HighsThe QQQ is currently undergoing a corrective move after reaching a recent high of around 540 USD. The price has retraced sharply from this level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment as sellers begin to dominate. Key Levels Support Zones: Immediate support can be seen around 519 USD, with more significant zones near 500 and 480 USD, which aligns with previous price consolidation. Market Structure After a strong upward move, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with lower highs indicating the start of a pullback. Sellers have gained control, as evidenced by the recent price action. Volume The CVD is deeply negative, highlighting strong selling pressure in the current market phase. This suggests that while price holds near key support, bearish momentum remains high, and we may see further downside if these levels don't hold. Outlook Watch for price action around the current support. If this level breaks convincingly (what has to be expected, regarding the highly negative momentum), we could see a deeper retracement toward 500 USD. On the other hand, a strong bounce from current levels, might signal a resumption of the bullish trend. The two different pathways show the most likely outlooks: The green path shows the best bullish case, while the blue path seems to have a higher likelihood, but therefore offers a better RRR for future long positions.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Ochlokrat
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again. I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward. Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening. I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend. Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now. Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern. $95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
EWW - Betting on the ElectionWhile election betting sites are coming into the spotlight these days, another way to bet on the upcoming election is through betting on the Mexican economy. Anecdotal evidence indicates that China and even US manufacturing giants are set to build more plants in Mexico should the Harris team win. Trump on the other hand, promises tariffs on items manufactured abroad. Also noted is the multitudes of immigrants waiting at the Guatemalan border to head to the US should Harris and Democrat border policies prevail. Mexico would be smart in capturing those qualified to add to Mexico's potential manufacturing powerhouse should the political chips fall their way. Another factor to consider long term is the demographic cliff that the US is on, and Latin America isn't. Mexico certainly is in a strong position to develop into an economic powerhouse of the future, with appropriate leadership.
AMEX:EWWLong
by AssetDesign