Get started

ETF market

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-14-25: Temp BottomToday's Cycle Pattern is a Temporary Bottom pattern. I suspect the markets may attempt to move a bit lower in early trading before attempting to find a new base/support level. Yesterday's low may prove to be very important depending on what the markets do today. Initially, I thought yesterday's low was the Temporary Bottom pattern (one day early). But, I do believe the markets will continue to be volatile in early trading today and may move downward to retest lows before trying to move higher - setting up the Temporary Bottom pattern. Gold and Silver will likely continue to melt upward unless there is some big news that disrupts the US Dollar's downward slide. I see Gold trying to rally above $3200 very quickly over the next 15+ days. Bitcoin is still consolidating and is currently in a short upward price phase (much like the SPY/QQQ). In fact, the SPY/QQQ and Bitcoin are all in an EPP consolidation phase. So, that means even though we may see a volatile type of price move over the next 15-30+ days, price is ultimately trapped in a consolidated price range and will/should attempt to break downward into the Ultimate Low. Therefore, if we get a moderate pullback/rally phase over the next 5+ trading days, be aware that the rally upward will end near March 21-24 and turn downward very sharply before the end of March (based on my research). You have lots of opportunity if this base sets up for a moderate rally in the SPY/QQQ, but play it cautiously as I don't believe we'll see new ATHs anytime soon. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
8% GDP growth for Vietnam, better than 5% for China, investable?Per Reuters, Vietnam is poised to grow at 6.5% to 8% for 2025 target. This is much higher than China of maintaining at 5%. Does a higher GDP growth translate to one parking funds to this country? Let's take a look at the VNM ETF. We can see since 2010 it has been heading south and has not yet recovered. That is 15 years , a very long long time. Almost more than 60% downfall from its peak of 32 dollars to current price of 12.44. It is not wise to invest just because the price has dropped significantly coz the low or lower price in weeks or months to come could stay for another 5-10 years. I don't know. One important factor in considering whether to invest is NOT to let mainstream news , no matter how popular they are, attention - grabbing titles or got 5 million views from some influencers promoting it. Get Real. Investing is to make long term returns and if after 15 years you are still bleeding , no matter big or small paper loss, it goes to show your initial selection of country/stock was wrong. Diversification then becomes an essential part of investing. The world do not operates on a linear basis, it goes in cycles much like the 4 seasons. With a good basket of different sectors stocks, you are protected from the down swing moves of one particular or heavily concentrated sector/country. So for example, when my US tech stocks is down like 10-12%, my HK/China tech stocks are rallying, this compensates and bring balance to my overall portfolio. This allows me to sleep better at night. What about you?
CBOE:VNM
by dchua1969
SMH make me Shake My Head...SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025) ⸻ 1. Key Observations from the Chart ✅ Major Trendline Break • SMH has broken below its long-term rising trendline (yellow), indicating a shift from a bullish trend to a corrective phase. • The last time a similar break happened, a deeper correction followed before stabilizing. ✅ Key Support & Resistance Levels • Resistance Levels (Upside Targets) • $222.79 - $231.15 → Former support, now resistance zone. • $237.13 → Stronger resistance, where price previously rejected. • $242.32 → Major resistance, unlikely to be tested soon unless momentum shifts bullish. • Support Levels (Downside Risks) • $219.55 → Current support being tested. If it breaks, expect more downside. • $213.57 → Next key support level. • Below $213.57, further downside to ~$200 could be likely. ✅ Moving Averages Acting as Resistance • The 200-day EMA was broken & rejected, a strong bearish signal. ⸻ 2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns • Trend Breakdown: The long-term uptrend is broken, and price is trading under major EMAs. • Bearish Continuation Likely: If SMH fails to reclaim resistance, it could fall toward $213.57 or lower. ⸻ 3. Indicator Analysis 📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator - Middle Panel) • Currently at 38.96, showing some attempt at stabilization but no confirmed bullish crossover. • Could still move lower before a true oversold bounce. 📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum - Bottom Panel) • Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed → MACD histogram turning deeply negative, showing strong downside momentum. • No signs of reversal yet. ⸻ 4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025) 🔵 Bullish Scenario (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79) • Trigger: If SMH bounces off $219.55 and breaks $222.79 • Target 1: $231.15 • Target 2: $237.13 • Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume). 🔴 Bearish Scenario (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Momentum Continues) • Trigger: If SMH falls under $219.55 and stays below • Target 1: $213.57 • Target 2: $200.00 (if selling accelerates) • Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside). ⸻ Options Trading Strategies for SMH 🟢 Bullish Trade Ideas (If SMH Holds $219.55 & Breaks Above $222.79) 1. 0DTE Call Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy SMH $225 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Entry: If SMH breaks above $222.79 and holds • Exit Target: $231.15 • Stop-Loss: If SMH falls back below $219. 2. Bull Call Spread (Lower Risk) • Buy SMH $220 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Sell SMH $230 Call (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if SMH closes above $230 3. Sell a Bull Put Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell SMH $220 Put • Buy SMH $215 Put • Profit if SMH stays above $220 ⸻ 🔴 Bearish Trade Ideas (If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 & Moves Toward $213.57) 1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy SMH $215 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Entry: If SMH breaks below $219.55 • Exit Target: $213.57 • Stop-Loss: If SMH reclaims $222. 2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play) • Buy SMH $220 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Sell SMH $210 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if SMH closes below $210 3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell SMH $230 Call • Buy SMH $235 Call • Profit if SMH stays below $230 ⸻ 5. Conclusion: How to Trade SMH Tomorrow? • If SMH Holds $219.55 & Reclaims $222.79 → Go Long with Calls or Bullish Spreads • If SMH Breaks Below $219.55 → Go Short with Puts or Bearish Spreads • If Uncertain or Choppy → Iron Condor or Stay Out
NASDAQ:SMH
by ReadyFor401k
Is History Repeating on IWM?1. Historical Pattern Repeating? ✅ Symmetry Between 2021-2022 & 2024-2025 • Both price structures show an initial sharp rally, followed by a head-and-shoulders-type decline, then an extended bearish wave lower. • In 2022, IWM broke its long-term trendline (yellow) and crashed into a lower range. • Now in 2025, IWM is showing the same breakdown pattern below that same yellow trendline, suggesting another leg down. ✅ Fractal Pattern Match • The zigzag pattern (white lines) from 2021-2022 matches closely to the current market structure. • If this fractal pattern repeats, IWM could be heading for another prolonged decline toward $180 or lower. ✅ Major Resistance Held Strong • The yellow downward-sloping trendline acted as resistance in both 2021 & now in 2025. • This rejection in 2025 adds to the bearish probability of history repeating itself. ⸻ 2. Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias 📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator) • Currently oversold (~23.29), but no bullish reversal yet. • This suggests that momentum is still to the downside with no sign of a bounce. 📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum) • Bearish crossover confirmed, with the MACD histogram turning increasingly negative. • This reinforces that downward momentum is strong, aligning with the 2021 crash pattern. 📉 Moving Averages Acting as Resistance • The 200-day EMA (purple line) was broken & rejected, which is a strong bearish signal. • This rejection mirrors the 2021 rejection, which led to a deep sell-off. ⸻ 3. Price Targets & Potential Moves If IWM follows the 2021 fractal pattern, here’s where it could go: 🔴 Bearish Targets (If Breakdown Continues) • First Target: $190.00 → Minor support zone. • Second Target: $180.00 → Key historical support. • Final Target: $160.00 → Full fractal breakdown completion. 🟢 Bullish Reversal (Invalidation Point) • If IWM reclaims $204-$210, it could invalidate the pattern and start a recovery. • Breaking above the yellow trendline (~$210.85) would signal a bullish shift. ⸻ 4. How to Trade This Setup? 🔻 Bearish Trade Ideas (If IWM Stays Below $198.75 & Breaks $198.10) 1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward) • Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Target: $190.00 • Stop-Loss: If IWM reclaims $200. 2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play) • Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Sell IWM $185 Put (Exp. 3/14) • Max Profit if IWM closes below $185. 3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy) • Sell IWM $205 Call • Buy IWM $210 Call • Profit if IWM stays below $205. 🟢 Bullish Trade (If IWM Reclaims $204 & Breaks Above $210.85) • Buy IWM $210 Call (Exp. 3/14) → Target $217+ ⸻ 5. Conclusion – Is IWM Repeating the 2021 Crash? ✅ Yes, the fractal pattern suggests history is repeating. ✅ Downtrend confirmed, rejection at key resistance, and bearish indicators align. ✅ Watch for a break below $198.10 for further downside to $180-$160.
AMEX:IWM
by ReadyFor401k
Right on Q...or not...QQQ Daily Chart Analysis & Prediction (March 14, 2025) 1. Key Observations from the Chart: • Recent Selloff: QQQ has been in a strong downward move, breaking below previous support around $470.35 and testing a key support zone. • Major Support & Resistance Levels Identified: • Resistance Levels: • $470.35 – Previous strong support, now acting as resistance. • $484.23 - $485.54 – Strong resistance, likely a rejection zone if tested. • $499.11 - $506.76 – Major resistance zone, unlikely to be tested tomorrow unless a significant reversal occurs. • Support Levels: • $468.34 – Currently being tested. A break below this could push QQQ lower. • $448.19 – Next major support level if $468 fails. • $409.28 – Long-term support; if selling accelerates, this could be tested in the coming weeks. ⸻ 2. Trend Analysis & Chart Patterns • Break Below Trendline Support: QQQ has broken below a key trendline, signaling potential further downside. • Oversold but Not Reversing Yet: Indicators suggest that QQQ is oversold, but no clear signs of reversal yet. ⸻ 3. Indicator Analysis Stochastic RSI (Middle Panel - Momentum Indicator) • Sitting Near Oversold (~29.39), but still declining. • No confirmed bullish crossover yet, meaning downside risk remains. MACD (Bottom Panel - Trend & Momentum) • Bearish MACD Cross Confirmed: • MACD histogram is deeply negative, showing strong selling momentum. • No sign of a bullish reversal at the moment. ⸻ 4. Prediction for Tomorrow (March 14, 2025) 🔵 Bullish Scenario (If QQQ Holds $468 & Reclaims $470.35) • Trigger: QQQ bounces off $468 and breaks $470.35 with strength • Target 1: $484.23 • Target 2: $499.11 • Probability: Medium (needs strong buying volume). 🔴 Bearish Scenario (If QQQ Breaks Below $468.34 & Momentum Continues) • Trigger: QQQ falls under $468.34 and holds below • Target 1: $448.19 • Target 2: $409.28 (Long-term support) • Probability: High (Trend & momentum indicators suggest further downside).
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ReadyFor401k
2
3/14/2025 SPY reversal or just a lil' bit more before a bounce? Key Observations: 1. Significant Downtrend: • The recent price action shows a notable decline from its highs, suggesting strong selling pressure. • The price has fallen to a major support zone around $551.42, close to a longer-term uptrend line (green line). 2. Support & Resistance Levels: • $563.91 – A previous support level turned resistance after the recent decline. • $551.42 – Currently being tested as a support level. • $539.44, $518.36, and $510.27 – Potential next support levels if price continues downward. 3. Trendline Test: • The long-term uptrend line is being tested right now. If it holds, SPY could see a bounce. • If it breaks below, it might lead to a deeper correction towards $539.44 or lower. 4. Indicators: • Stochastic RSI (middle panel): • Currently in oversold territory, suggesting that selling momentum is strong, but a potential bounce could occur. • MACD (bottom panel): • The histogram is deeply negative, showing strong downward momentum. • The MACD lines are still bearish but may start flattening, which could indicate slowing bearish momentum soon. Prediction for Tomorrow & Near-Term: • Bullish Scenario: • If $551.42 and the trendline hold, SPY may attempt a bounce toward $563.91 resistance. • Confirmation would require bullish momentum on lower timeframes and increased volume. • Bearish Scenario: • If SPY breaks below $551.42 and the trendline, expect further downside to $539.44 and possibly $518.36 in the coming days. • A continued negative MACD and weak Stoch RSI would reinforce this bearish outlook. Conclusion: • Critical level to watch: $551.42. • If SPY closes above it, we could see a short-term rebound. • If it breaks below, expect more downside pressure toward $539.44 and $518.36.
AMEX:SPY
by ReadyFor401k
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 14, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸⚠️ Potential U.S. Government Shutdown ⚠️: The United States faces a potential government shutdown on March 14 if lawmakers fail to agree on the 2025 budget. This impasse could lead to the closure of government agencies and furloughs of federal employees, impacting various sectors and potentially affecting market sentiment.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Friday, March 14: 🛒 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment. Forecast: 64.0​ Previous: 64.7​ 🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's health. Previous: 592​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
2
Mind blowing 507 and 337 Price Targets Signal Trouble AheadI’m not here to throw out wild price targets—I’m just following the technicals, and they’re telling me one thing: this market looks weak. Whether we hit 507 first or head straight to 337, my stance remains the same—I’m bearish until proven otherwise. In this video, I’ll break down the charts, key levels, and the risks I see playing out. No predictions—just pure technical analysis. Feel free to tell me your opinions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by GiftedInvestor
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update for 3-13-25What a crazy day. The markets certainly decided to burn the longs almost all day. I got a few messages from traders who continued trying to pick bottoms in this downtrend. FYI, that can be very dangerous. If you are a short-term trader and are trying to pick a base/bottom all day today - you have to have a limit in terms of how much you are willing to risk within a single day. I've seen dozens of traders blow up their accounts in a big, trending market. Please learn from your actions. Develop a STOP POINT related to your trading decisions. There is no reason to continue to try to execute "bounce" trades when the markets are trending as strongly as they are today. This video should help you understand what I see as the potential over the next 5+ days. We are still trying to hold above critical support near the 50% retracement level on the SPY. Everything depends on what happens in DC and how the markets perceive risks. Gold/Silver rallied very strong today. This is FEAR related to risks. If the US government enters a shutdown, Gold and Silver could skyrocket much higher. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Real GDP vs SP500Real GDP and the S&P 500 are interconnected indicators of economic health, though they measure different aspects of the economy. Real GDP reflects the total value of goods and services produced, adjusted for inflation, and serves as a broad measure of economic growth. The S&P 500, on the other hand, represents the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies and is often seen as a barometer of corporate profitability and investor sentiment. Generally, when Real GDP grows, it signals a healthy economy, which can boost corporate earnings and drive stock prices higher, positively impacting the S&P 500. Conversely, a decline in Real GDP, such as during a recession, can weigh on corporate profits and lead to declines in the S&P 500. However, the relationship isn't always direct or immediate. For example, the S&P 500 is forward-looking and often reacts to expectations of future GDP growth rather than current data. Additionally, factors like monetary policy, interest rates, and global market conditions can influence the S&P 500 independently of Real GDP trends. In periods of economic uncertainty, the S&P 500 might rally on hopes of stimulus or recovery, even if Real GDP data remains weak. Thus, while Real GDP and the S&P 500 often move in tandem over the long term, their relationship can diverge in the short term due to market sentiment and external influences.
AMEX:SPY
by juanfortuno
SP500 vs fedfundsrateThe interest rate and the S&P 500 share a complex yet significant relationship in financial markets. When interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing typically increases for companies, which can reduce their profits and, in turn, put downward pressure on S&P 500 stock prices. Additionally, higher rates make bonds and other fixed-income assets more attractive compared to stocks, potentially leading to a shift of capital away from the equity market. Conversely, when interest rates are low, companies can borrow more cheaply, which tends to boost earnings and, consequently, the performance of the S&P 500. However, other factors such as economic growth, inflation, and market expectations also play a role in this dynamic, making the relationship neither linear nor entirely predictable.
AMEX:SPY
by juanfortuno
A Huge Technical Re-Test of This Important TL Has Just Occurred!Trading Family, Tariff FUD is recking traders rn. After breaking important support which started in Nov. '24, I knew the SPY was in trouble. My first target down was 563. We hit that and broke it. My second target down was 550. We are there right now! Will it hold? I don't know. TBH, I don't think any analyst that is honest knows. Investors have never seen Tariffs levied like they have been recently by the Trump admin. Noone really knows how this is going to impact the current economy, which is now global (big diff from the last U.S. tariff econ in the late 1800's). But I can say that this is a big support which is the neckline of our large long-term Cup and Handle pattern started all the way back in Jan. of 2022! We did have one retest already. Usually, this is all that is needed. But apparently, the market wants another. Though the support is strong, remember, every time it is tagged, it weakens. Thus, if it can't hold this current downturn, I suspect it will drop hard from here should it break, possibly dropping all the way to 460. Be prepared for this and watch your trendline closely! On the other hand, if it holds, I see a huge bounce incoming! We'll probably then go all the way back up to test the underside of that support (red with two with lines) that we broke. Hold on to your hats! We are living in unprecedented times with unprecedented market volatility. The last item to note is that, once again, this all seems to be occurring at the same time that U.S. congress and senate are voting on a continuing resolution. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation however, in this case, I would suggest that should a U.S. gov't shutdown occur, our support will break and down we'll go. Should a CR pass, big bounce incoming. Stay tuned and watch the news closely for this. It seems to be a news driven event. ✌️ Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
2