Short Iron Condor, 7 Days till ExpirationNASDAQ:QQQ
+1 $508 call
-1 $505 call
---
-1 $405 put
+1 $402 put
4/30 Expiration (WED)
$50 credit, $250 max loss
5:1 risk:reward
ETF market
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇪🇺 European Banks Brace for Tariff Impact: European banks are facing a challenging outlook as U.S. tariff hikes raise recession fears. Analysts anticipate slower revenue growth and increased loan loss provisions, with institutions like BNP Paribas expected to report earnings reflecting these pressures.
✈️ Airline Industry Faces Booking Declines: European airlines report a 3% drop in planned summer trips, with leisure travel down 8% compared to 2024. Economic concerns and rising travel costs, particularly among Gen Z travelers, are contributing factors. Airlines like Ryanair and Air France-KLM are considering fare adjustments to maintain demand.
👗 Kering's Revenue Drops Amid Gucci Struggles: Luxury group Kering reported a 14% decline in Q1 revenue, with flagship brand Gucci experiencing a 25% drop. The company attributes the downturn to ongoing brand challenges and macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending in key markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📦 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +2.1%
Previous: +0.9%
Measures new orders for manufactured durable goods, indicating manufacturing sector health.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 222,000
Previous: 215,000
Reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, signaling labor market trends.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.14 million
Previous: 4.26 million
Indicates the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold, providing insight into housing market conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Key Test of Resistance on QQQKey remount of the QQQ. We are over the 9ema and 20sma now and testing a huge supply zone that we need to eat thorugh. This ownt be easy as this 470 level is a huge supply but this can be the start of something. A couple days of chop here while we grind under the supply zone could set us up for higher prices. They key is to see how we react into this zone as the first test into that 470 we might get rejected in absence of news but we need the see the nature and structure of that pullback. We are by no way means out of the bear market this is a traders market but there are some green shoots. The market is shrugging off bad news and the trump team is trying to keep this market afloat by anymeans!
$SPY & $SPX Blocked @ the 1hr200MA, Daily 35EMA, Downtrend & GapThe 35EMA across timeframes really doesn’t disappoint. This is the Daily timeframe.
We had the 1hr 200MA, the Downtrend Line off of all time highs, and the 35EMA on the daily timeframe. We were not going anywhere. And add to that the MASSIVE bear gap.
Good Job today if you guys took any of the trades I posted either here or on the video last night - every one closed up 100%
"SPY & SPX Stalled: 200MA, 35EMA, Downtrend & Bear Gap Clash!"
GLD Will TOP SOON - Good For Crypto and AltsGLD has been on a tear lately, but I believe the rally will come to an end next week. This will be good for BTC and Alts. First looking at the RSI on GLD we can see it is now overbought on a monthly and this somehow coincides with the April 2 deadline on Tariffs. IMO I think this is a trap and GLD will begin to fall after it reaches just above the line I have in the chart.
XBI-SPY overlay unravels great bear?Undead Bear Captain's Log, Apr 7 2025:
Writing some observations due to a lurking feeling of something ominous about to happen:
Bizarre signs in the wind since mid-March, such as VVIX/VIX
Sudden downslide last week, almost unprecedented
Minimal put action - bear breathen all obliterated
Overlay of infant XBI and adolescent SPY suggests 3 year rally was nothing more than smoke & mirrors
XBI bearish running flat?
SPY extreme expanded flat?
If true, this could sink ships - many many ships...
Out
SPY Long and Neutralnear demand Zone,
Long entry 516
no Stop ,
Target 530
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
SMH correction areaThe SMH likes to check up on the 50 month moving average every 2.5 years or so. It has gone 20 bars since it's last check, so i would expect a test within the next year to 16 months.
IWM Has Bottomed but Not Ready Yet for Trend ShiftWhat Price Action Says:
After a sharp decline, IWM has experienced a 15% rebound, signaling the end of the bearish trend. However, this doesn't mean the market is ready to shift upward just yet.
For now, the most probable scenario is sideways movement, likely continuing through the end of Q2. A sustained upward move will require confirmation of a clear bottoming process, which has not been seen at this stage.
Key levels to watch are support at 185 and resistance at 200. Until we see more confirmation of a stable base, expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase.
$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them.
If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level.
You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here.
I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
CHIP SECTOR TO CRASH SMH The chart posted is the SMH we are now in the final 5th wave and it is a classic 5th wave Diagonal in the 5th wave wave to form a double top into fib cycle peak .From here we should see a major break down in All chip stocks into Oct 2025 but we should see the first leg down low march 10/20th 2025 this should be a Very Bearish action world wide see spy and qqq as well . This is the warning to All traders EXIT INTO RALLIES THE BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
VHYL: How low-risk do you want your chart to be?How low-risk do you want your chart to be?
- No breakdown PA at top;
- Clear SFP level supported by big structure;
- Lack of horizontality + big verticality making the
SFP-level even stronger.
$SQQQ - $68-103 targetIf we look at the chart of SQQQ, we can see that we're holding support here at the $34 level.
If we continue to hold here, we'll have a failed head and shoulders breakdown. I think if we can break the highs at $57, it is very likely that we'll see $68+.
Let's see how it plays out in the coming weeks.
$GLD short term top in $260-148 target on the downsideAMEX:GLD looks a bit extended here. I could see the possibility of GLD falling back to the $260 support at a minimum and maximum all the way down to $148
The $209 support would be the 50% retracement of the recent run. I like that as a level for a bounce.
Let's see where we end up.
$SLV pullback before the real bull trend starts?Silver looks to be trading in a large rising wedge, I could see the possibility of a pretty substantial pullback should price break down from the pattern.
We have the potential to fall between 30-60% from here should price break the pattern. The level to look for is a break of $22 on the downside, that will be the confirmation that we're moving lower.
I've marked off important support levels on the downside if we break down. A break of the upper resistance would invalidate the idea.
PY has bottomedWhat Price Action Says:
SPY has bottomed, support now at 510, up from 485!
Strong resistances at 550 & 585, but AMEX:SPY is likely to break through these levels in the second half of the year.
In the short term, it remains within a range.
Watch 510/550 closely.
Silver 2x ETF ScalpWe are a little oversold on the 4hr and have a nice gap to target. Good for a quick 6-7% without huge risk if you use a very tight stop. Not financial advice.
bullish SPY (pitchfork based)SPY reached the bottom of one pitchfork and the middle of the second one and bounced back up. I expect the bounce to continue
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 23 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 23, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Inverse gold miner3x inverse gold miner for short exposure bought this morning at 4.50. Looking at 9 for first target see if gold bounces at support should be around that range. Could easily bounce sooner but short/medium term I'm looking for gold back at 3050. Weekly gold candle is setting up for major top if it doesn't rebound this week. Risky play I have a .15 stoploss.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will continue to push higher, possibly breaking upper resistance near $550/493.
As I suggested in this video, I believe the upward price trend bias will continue into Friday (4-25) and suddenly shift into a BEARISH price trend/bias early next week.
The May 2-5 Major Bottom cycle low, my research predicts, will happen and should prompt a fairly strong downward price trend as we near the end of April and head into early May.
Gold and Silver will likely consolidate a bit over the next 24-48 hours. So, this is a great time to pick lower entry price levels for LONGS/CALLS.
Ultimately, I'm still expecting Gold to rally above $3750 before the end of May and attempt to target $4500++ before the end of June.
BTCUSD is moving into a potential "INVALIDATION" phase. Although I'm currently estimating the probability of that invalidation at about 20-30%, it is still a valid price trend.
I believe BTCUSD will shift into a downward price trend as the markets continue to unwind excesses through the May, July, and October lows, according to my cycles.
The big opportunity for traders over the next 48 hours is playing the upward trend bias in the SPY/QQQ - then moving into a mode of preparation for next week's breakdown/downward price trend in the SPY/QQQ.
So, play it smart. Follow the chart and don't try to be a superhero.
Play what is in front of you and prepare for the bigger price swings headed into next week and beyond.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY Setting Up for a Breakout? Gamma, Liquidity & TA Aligning 🔍GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment)
SPY is showing an impressive surge off the 508 HVL zone, with a clean stair-step climb supported by options flow. Gamma exposure is shifting favorably:
* Strongest Call Wall sits at 528–530, where we see the highest positive NETGEX—aka the Gamma Wall.
* Price is currently testing the 536 level, and the bulls are targeting 549 and potentially 561+ if momentum continues.
* Options Oscillator shows notable GEX alignment (🟢🟢🟢) and IVR 48.8, suggesting room for more expansion.
➡️ Calls are in control (48.6%), and no major PUT pressure remains above 508. With IV contraction, theta decay is less brutal. This opens the door for short-dated call entries (0DTE to 3DTE) above 530.31 with stops below 526.61.
Price Action & Trading Plan
On the 1H chart, SPY has broken out from a CHoCH + BOS structure, and we’re currently in a bullish continuation move.
* Trend Strength: Strong Bullish
* Market Structure: In premium but bullish hold.
* Candle Volume: Thin, but breakout is supported by prior strong demand.
* Setup: Long is forming – waiting for follow-through.
🔑 Key Levels:
* Entry: Above 530.31
* Targets: 549 (RRR 1), 561.53 (RRR 2)
* Invalidation: Below 526.61
🧠 My Thoughts
SPY is building momentum and options are reinforcing the move. The breakout through the HVL zone, combined with SMC-confirmed structure and GEX tailwinds, tells me the path of least resistance is up. Volume isn’t overly strong yet, so we need to monitor follow-through and not get trapped if a reversal forms near 540–549. If bulls defend 530, this could turn into a "home run" leg into the week.
🚨 Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly.
