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$SPY ChatGPT's predicted 12/19 Move Per chatGPT www.tradingview.com Considering the anticipated GDP report and its potential impact on market sentiment, here are three scenarios for SPY’s intraday high and low: 1. Best-Case Scenario: • High: $600 • Low: $585 Assumption: The GDP report exceeds expectations, indicating robust economic growth, which boosts investor confidence and leads to a market rally. 2. Moderate Scenario: • High: $590 • Low: $580 Assumption: The GDP report aligns with forecasts, suggesting steady economic conditions. The market reacts with cautious optimism, resulting in moderate price movements. 3. Worst-Case Scenario • High: $580 • Low: $570 Assumption: The GDP report falls short of expectations, signaling potential economic slowdown. This triggers investor concern, leading to a market sell-off and lower SPY prices. Note: These scenarios are hypothetical and depend on various factors, including investor sentiment, market liquidity, and broader economic indicators.
AMEX:SPY
by harrisonpend
1
SPY 15m Analysis: FVGs and Key Levels for Next MovesOverview This idea focuses on the SPY 15-minute chart, highlighting key fair value gaps (FVGs) and critical support/resistance levels. The current price action shows potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios, contingent on price reactions at crucial levels. Bearish Scenario Key Level to Watch: If SPY closes below 566.44, it signals further downside momentum. Traders should look for the formation of the next Bearish FVG to initiate short positions. Projected Target: First Target: 550–555 zone (likely demand zone or support area). Downward momentum is supported by the recent sharp sell-off, indicating heavy selling pressure. Invalidation: A sustained move back above 588.85 will weaken bearish momentum. Bullish Scenario Key Level to Watch: For any upward momentum, a Bullish FVG must form above the current price, likely in the 588.85–595.79 range. Projected Target: First Target: 595.79 Second Target: 600+, where stronger resistance may emerge. Invalidation: Failure to hold above 588.85 could result in further selling pressure. Volume and Momentum Considerations While individual candlestick volume isn't displayed, the rapid decline hints at increased selling pressure. Monitor volume closely during retests for confirmation of strength or weakness in price action. Plan Your Trade: Use clear invalidation levels to manage risk. Wait for price confirmation (e.g., closing below 566.44 or a bullish FVG forming above 588.85). Utilize stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected reversals. Conclusion This setup allows for flexibility, focusing on key zones and volume confirmation. The bias leans bearish, but a bullish retracement cannot be ruled out if price action shifts momentum. Keep an eye on FVG formations for entry signals.
AMEX:SPY
by CapitalGainz33
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones. Market Structure Analysis * Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction. * Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase. * Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears. Supply and Demand Zones * Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce). * Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts). Order Blocks and Support/Resistance * Key Resistance: * $591: A psychological and structural level. * $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level. * Key Support: * $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572. * $567: A crucial lower-level support. Key Indicators * EMA: * 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum. * MACD: * Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative. * RSI: * Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce. Options Flow and GEX * Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong. * Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward. * Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum. Scalping vs. Swing Outlook * Scalping: * Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578. * Swing Trading: * Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590. Actionable Suggestions 1. Short-Term Bullish: * Entry: Near $580 support. * Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance. * Stop-Loss: Below $578. 2. Short-Term Bearish: * Entry: On rejection at $590. * Exit: Target $580 or lower. * Stop-Loss: Above $592. Conclusion SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Crash Technical Analysis (TA) for Dec. 19Market Overview The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) experienced a significant market drop today, reflecting a bearish sentiment in technology-heavy indices. The broader sell-off has pushed QQQ down to critical technical levels, where a combination of support zones and gamma exposure levels could offer insights for the next trading sessions. Market Structure Analysis * Daily Chart: QQQ broke below its recent upward channel support at $525, with today's close significantly below the 9-EMA and 21-EMA, signaling bearish momentum. * Hourly Chart: A sharp sell-off occurred during today's session, with a brief recovery toward $517. However, the current volume profile indicates strong selling pressure near the $525 resistance. Supply and Demand Zones * Immediate Resistance Zones: * $525.60: Prior support turned resistance, aligning with the gamma exposure wall and heavy put wall. * $533.14: Additional resistance, coinciding with the upper range of today’s intraday high. * Support Zones: * $515: Intraday low support aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure (NETGEX) level. * $507 and $505: Key demand zones visible from previous consolidations and gamma support. Order Blocks and Key Levels * Bearish Order Block: $525 to $533 range has seen consistent selling pressure, forming a robust resistance. * Bullish Rejection Level: $512-$515 acts as a psychological support zone. Key Indicators * MACD: The MACD on both daily and hourly charts has crossed bearishly, with increasing momentum to the downside. * RSI: Hourly RSI has entered oversold territory (~30), indicating a possible short-term bounce. * EMAs (9 & 21): The price remains significantly below both EMAs on all timeframes, confirming the bearish bias. Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Activity * Put Wall: The $519 level represents the highest concentration of puts, acting as immediate resistance. * Gamma Exposure (GEX): * Negative GEX levels between $515 and $520 amplify downward pressure. * Above $525, calls dominate, potentially limiting further upside. Scalping vs. Swing Outlook * Scalping Strategy: * Look for short entries near $525 with tight stop losses above $526. * Potential target zones: $517, $515, and $512. * Swing Strategy: * Wait for confirmation of a close above $525 to consider bullish recovery. * Downside swing target: $505 if $512 support breaks. Actionable Suggestions 1. Short Setup: * Entry: Near $525. * Stop-Loss: Above $526. * Target: $515, $507. 2. Bullish Setup: * Entry: On confirmation above $525. * Stop-Loss: Below $520. * Target: $533. Conclusion QQQ is in a precarious technical position, reflecting broader market weakness. A further break below $512 could accelerate the downtrend, while a reclaim of $525 could initiate a short-term recovery. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly before making trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically. Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AssetDesign
12/3/24 - $qqq - quick comment on "risk"- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut - but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing! - what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg... 1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy 2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates) 3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive 4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent 5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress). just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;) stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have. V
NASDAQ:QQQ
by VROCKSTAR
SPY to $585?: EOY Price TargetUsing the Magic Linear Regression Channel on TradingView.com we look at some possible scenarios for SPY price movement. A shorter term regression channel shows SPY at the top of the channel and rejecting it today - even with more buyers than sellers in the TradingView Volume Footprint chart view. The bottom of the channel converges with last pivot low near $584. It could conceivable go lower, but with lower volume likely during the holiday season, it would seem less likely for it to make any more big moves barring some major unexpected event.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mwrightinc
7
S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈 The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔 🔍 **What’s driving the move?** - 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer. - 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts. - ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations. 📊 **Why It Matters?** - If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀 - A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉 👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?** Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
AMEX:SPYLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
MSTX can quadruple your gains.... or losses Micro-strategy has been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks, rallying several hundreds of percent. Luckily for those with a large risk appetite , we have an ETF available to us which provides 2x the volatility of MSTR. This can be a very dangerous play if you do not understand how to manage your risk, so I would advise extreme caution here. With that being said, it seems like we may be seeing an MSTR pullback here into what may be a potential double bottom zone. If I continue to look for higher price on the stock, as well as Bitcoin, I would like mstx to hold up at the critical zone marked on the chart for continuation of this uptrend. Otherwise, losing this level would be quite bearish for me. I have a few major indicators which I would like to reference. 1. Previous range value areas, notably the value area high respected before we saw the massive pump and dump. 2. Gap up zone and previous value area low should hold up if we expect continuation to the upside. 3. Trend based fib extension providing me with a potential zone for the corrective move and where it may end in confluence with the POC and VAL. Lets see how this one plays out.
NASDAQ:MSTXLong
by afurs1
41
Grinch drop, Santa popSPY is at it's 2 year trend channel resistance level. There's very little upside reward left. There's a greater downside risk. The Grinch may try to steal Christmas with a temporary SPY drop towards support. But then a Santa Claus rally will pop SPY back up to it's resistance level. SPY 2 year trend channel levels: resistance = 605 pivot = 585 support = 565 trade ideas: 1) collar strategy hold 100 shares sell 585 call buy 605 put 2) buy 605 put 3) short call spread sell 585 call buy 605 call 4) long put spread buy 605 put sell 585 put SPY options data: 12/6/24 expiry Put Volume Total 219,329 Call Volume Total 125,297 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.75 Put Open Interest Total 750,130 Call Open Interest Total 233,054 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.22 12/13/24 expiry Put Volume Total 69,042 Call Volume Total 43,893 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.57 Put Open Interest Total 317,687 Call Open Interest Total 228,869 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.39 12/20/24 expiry Put Volume Total 336,702 Call Volume Total 139,171 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.42 Put Open Interest Total 3,273,537 Call Open Interest Total 1,426,800 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.29 12/27/24 expiry Put Volume Total 13,062 Call Volume Total 14,931 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.87 Put Open Interest Total 72,224 Call Open Interest Total 59,538 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21 1/17/25 LEAPS Put Volume Total 191,268 Call Volume Total 63,574 Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.01 Put Open Interest Total 2,376,812 Call Open Interest Total 855,976 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.78
AMEX:SPYShort
by Options360
3
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators: Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile. This brings up a point that often comes up: “How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?” There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you. For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself. Test Case Chosen: 8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread Max Loss: $216 Max Profit: $1,685 PoP: 45% Why not?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 85 Covered Call... for an 83.01 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.01/share Max Profit: 1.99 ROC at Max: 2.40% 50% Max: 1.00 ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines