Dead Cat or Rally?Same as the QQQ chart, SPY has completed the measured DBW move. Has cleared major pivot fibs, but the gap up stopping at the .782 could be just an exhaustion gap. Scaling into short term hedges 4-5 weeks out at .618 and .382 retraceby Coach_Kev0
S&P bulls amazing coming backLast week, buyers continued to surprise by maintaining the impressive rally that began on Monday, the 5th. Observing the daily chart, we can see that for 10 consecutive days, the price has been setting new highs, never falling below the previous day's low. As of today (Monday, the 19th), the bulls have retraced 80% of the last bearish wave. It's also notable that buying occurred across all major S&P sectors, not just in a few big names. Here is the current market disposition: 1. The market is in a weekly uptrend, with a new major low officially confirmed at 510 . 2. On the daily chart, we see a beautiful stairstep pattern. 3. The only technical resistance above is July’s high of 565 , but given the rally's momentum, it is likely to be surpassed. The long-term outlook is unequivocally bullish. The short-term outlook is also bullish, as long as the daily stairstep pattern remains intact. For short traders, it is advisable to refrain from trying to catch the top. The current momentum is so strong that it could easily break all technical resistances. The only situation where I would consider cautious shorting is at the daily stairstep pattern break. Longby hermes_trisme0
$SPY Support Gap PatienceLast Thursdays gap up would be a great pullback spot to look for support. It wouldn't pierce the weekly candle at that spot. If it doesn't support that area patience is key. AMEX:SPYby JoelTCampbellJr0
BITCOIN is new goldbitcoin and gold behaving similarly against high yield bonds Bitcoin higher when highyield falls Gold higher when highyield falls by MacroCow0
$SPY Tomorrow's Trading Range 8.19.24Tomorrow's Trading Range, y'all... The levels are all here for you and the walkthrough is in the video version... See y'all tomorrow nightShortby SPYder_QQQueen_Trading115
Market Going UPWe have been doing a cup and handle pattern for a long time... The RSP shows you what the general market is doing unweighted and less distorted. We have been experiencing much downfalls in the previous weeks in the BIG STOCKS, but the rest of the market was not impacted... This means... Someone painted the market red... while buying the whole market... Volume also seems to confirm more bullish bias than bearish bias. Longby ZoharCho2
August 18th Weekly Watchlist LevelsI go over my weekly levels. Overall I think we have a lot of potential this week to keep moving up before elections. We also have a lot of possible gap fills on QQQ and SPY. Thanks for watching my videos and learning with me if you are new to watching my videos. I appreciate all of the love I got from my last video. Leave a comment with how long you have been trading for in the comments if you are new to my profile :) Lets make some good money this week everyone!!!04:54by carsonusa53
$SPY August 19, 2024AMEX:SPY August 19, 2024 15 Minutes. Friday AMEX:SPY was struggling around 55 levels as expected. All moving averages are little far off for 15 minutes chart. Hence, I expect sideways until this is sorted out. Considering 2 rises From 531.76 to 555.01 From 548.88 to 555.01 AMEX:SPY in uptrend for the day holding 551 levels. And if breaks 551 levels i have 548-549 as target being 100 averages approximately. 540 is the important levels now to hold to continue this current uptrend as of now. We have clearly oscillator divergence and hence i expect a pull back.Shortby RiderTrader4
SPY WEEKLY 19TH august 2024Hello everyone & welcome to SPY weekly. I have clearly discussed the price action &trades & aggressive -conservative levels. If you have any doubts feel free to DM me or leave a comment. NOTE:DO NOT SHORTLong12:17by THECHAARTIST228
XLF- This Isnt GoodAs those who follow us know we have been warning about XLF and the story we are seeing within the price structure As the Financial Sector goes..so does the rest of the markets I really truly hope we are absolutely wrong about this call because this is definitely going to rattle world marketsShortby Heartbeat_Trading2
QQQ- Decisions DecisionsThe Qs are in a similar position as other markets Price is at a critical junction and how the next pullback is handled will tell us, like SPX, are we headed to marginally higher ATHs or MUCH lowerby Heartbeat_Trading7
Levels to watch this week on SPYMarket is being so wonky, I am just gonna be catious and watch these level and the strength in price action before making any moves. GLTAby crisdbones3
Levels to watch this week on SPYMarket is being so wonky, I am just gonna be catious and watch these level and the strength in price action before making any moves. GLTAby crisdbones1
$TLT Weekly Chart Inverse Head Shoulders" NASDAQ:TLT Weekly Chart: Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was triggered last week. 📈 This could signal a potential reversal and further upside for long-term Treasuries. Are you watching this breakout? #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #BondMarket #Investing #ChartPatterns"Longby AlgoTradeAlert115
Slight downside before bounce or continuing lower!?This is my perspective on the coming days, I feel we consolidate regardless before another push to ATH or continue a downtrend into a recession (seeming unlikely apparently now)Shortby crisdbones2
Positioning in SPY: Navigating Volatility in August & SeptemberDisclaimer: The following article is based on a combination of data obtained from TradingView's seasonality indicator and Python code that analyzes seasonality on a 52-week basis over a 10-20 year period. The Kelly method discussed is simply a risk management tactic and should not be interpreted as financial advice. All data and analysis presented are made in good faith and are intended to advocate for data-driven position sizing rather than encouraging or discouraging any specific bullish or bearish positions. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. As we approach the late summer months, it's critical to consider the historical patterns of SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) and position oneself strategically to minimize potential losses while also capturing upside opportunities. August and September have often been challenging months for the market, characterized by heightened volatility and occasional sharp declines. However, completely staying out of the market can result in missed opportunities, especially if the market defies historical trends and rallies. Here’s how to balance these risks with a prudent strategy. Historical Performance and Seasonality Historically, SPY tends to experience increased volatility during the late summer, with some of the most significant drops often occurring in these months. From the data, Week 33, for instance, shows a mean return of -0.59% with only 42.86% positive returns. Week 39, even worse, shows an average return of -0.88%, with just 14.29% of the weeks ending in positive territory over the past decade. The seasonality chart provided further reinforces this pattern, showing consistent negative returns during late August and September in previous years. This suggests a cautious approach is warranted. Technical Indicators: Avoiding Overbought Conditions When entering a position in SPY during this volatile period, it is essential to avoid buying when the market is overbought, as indicated by the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands (BB). RSI Considerations: The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 typically signals that an asset is overbought, and a pullback may be imminent. Before entering a position, ensure that the RSI is below 70, preferably closer to 50 or lower, indicating neutral to slightly oversold conditions. 20-Day Bollinger Bands (BB): Bollinger Bands plot standard deviations above and below a moving average. When the price touches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, it may indicate that the asset is overbought. Waiting for the price to either move back within the bands or approach the lower band provides a better entry point. 52-Week Bollinger Bands: This is a broader timeframe that can help avoid long-term overbought conditions. Ensure SPY is not trading above the upper 52-week Bollinger Band to avoid entering at potentially unsustainable price levels. Kelly Method and Raw Data to Consider: Betting Calendar Using Kelly Method Kelly Criterion for Position Sizing: Determine Kelly Fraction: b = net odds received on the wager p = probability of winning (positive return) q = probability of losing (negative return) For each week, calculate the Kelly ratio based on historical data. Adjust the bet size each week according to the Kelly ratio, focusing on the following: High Kelly Ratio (>0.2): Increase exposure to TQQQ. Moderate Kelly Ratio (0 to 0.2): Hold current positions or add conservatively. Ticker: SPY, Week: 1 Volatility: 0.0257 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.57% Standard Deviation: 2.57% Highest Return: 3.46% in 2012 Lowest Return: -5.99% in 2016 Mean Volume: 111390641.79 Highest Volume: 181713040.00 in 2016 Lowest Volume: 68430450.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 2 Volatility: 0.0143 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.46% Standard Deviation: 1.43% Highest Return: 2.66% in 2023 Lowest Return: -2.09% in 2016 Mean Volume: 107009064.29 Highest Volume: 229416540.00 in 2016 Lowest Volume: 53189780.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 3 Volatility: 0.0244 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.04% Standard Deviation: 2.44% Highest Return: 2.87% in 2019 Lowest Return: -5.88% in 2022 Mean Volume: 128605387.86 Highest Volume: 261616225.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53442500.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 4 Volatility: 0.0179 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.13% Standard Deviation: 1.79% Highest Return: 2.46% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.35% in 2021 Mean Volume: 129307826.43 Highest Volume: 259350300.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 66549675.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 5 Volatility: 0.0245 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 2.45% Highest Return: 4.69% in 2021 Lowest Return: -3.93% in 2018 Mean Volume: 129932678.57 Highest Volume: 285445020.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 57701560.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 6 Volatility: 0.0207 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.29% Standard Deviation: 2.07% Highest Return: 3.23% in 2020 Lowest Return: -5.00% in 2018 Mean Volume: 132183114.29 Highest Volume: 269419900.00 in 2018 Lowest Volume: 45315460.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 7 Volatility: 0.0156 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.48% Standard Deviation: 1.56% Highest Return: 4.37% in 2018 Lowest Return: -1.39% in 2022 Mean Volume: 103561883.93 Highest Volume: 186139025.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 52002260.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 8 Volatility: 0.0131 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.22% Standard Deviation: 1.31% Highest Return: 1.62% in 2016 Lowest Return: -2.68% in 2023 Mean Volume: 118643622.50 Highest Volume: 215704675.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 69515225.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 9 Volatility: 0.0356 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: -0.24% Standard Deviation: 3.56% Highest Return: 3.14% in 2010 Lowest Return: -11.63% in 2020 Mean Volume: 133841187.14 Highest Volume: 248820940.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 66189040.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 10 Volatility: 0.0225 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.01% Standard Deviation: 2.25% Highest Return: 3.60% in 2018 Lowest Return: -4.59% in 2023 Mean Volume: 127773401.43 Highest Volume: 226098020.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 74267920.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 11 Volatility: 0.0327 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.04% Standard Deviation: 3.27% Highest Return: 6.03% in 2022 Lowest Return: -8.53% in 2020 Mean Volume: 144256381.43 Highest Volume: 312592900.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 74846600.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 12 Volatility: 0.0456 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.84% Standard Deviation: 4.56% Highest Return: 2.75% in 2011 Lowest Return: -14.70% in 2020 Mean Volume: 132598345.71 Highest Volume: 304677680.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 76852900.00 in 2022 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 13 Volatility: 0.0295 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 1.62% Standard Deviation: 2.95% Highest Return: 10.86% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.23% in 2015 Mean Volume: 119388588.93 Highest Volume: 268584800.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 72870220.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 14 Volatility: 0.0135 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: -0.03% Standard Deviation: 1.35% Highest Return: 2.69% in 2021 Lowest Return: -1.88% in 2020 Mean Volume: 108302020.36 Highest Volume: 173805360.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 58710140.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 15 Volatility: 0.0349 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.97% Standard Deviation: 3.49% Highest Return: 11.70% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.62% in 2014 Mean Volume: 112186273.93 Highest Volume: 183315525.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 59426200.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 16 Volatility: 0.0162 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.42% Standard Deviation: 1.62% Highest Return: 3.10% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.66% in 2022 Mean Volume: 110959992.14 Highest Volume: 181774480.00 in 2013 Lowest Volume: 57181675.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 17 Volatility: 0.0167 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.20% Standard Deviation: 1.67% Highest Return: 1.97% in 2011 Lowest Return: -3.20% in 2022 Mean Volume: 105344894.29 Highest Volume: 252752120.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 50297380.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 18 Volatility: 0.0204 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.52% Standard Deviation: 2.04% Highest Return: 1.97% in 2013 Lowest Return: -6.46% in 2010 Mean Volume: 129276537.14 Highest Volume: 431397980.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 64171980.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 19 Volatility: 0.0170 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 1.70% Highest Return: 3.38% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.27% in 2022 Mean Volume: 115531918.57 Highest Volume: 305934080.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54062740.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 20 Volatility: 0.0196 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: -0.80% Standard Deviation: 1.96% Highest Return: 2.15% in 2013 Lowest Return: -4.40% in 2012 Mean Volume: 131334362.86 Highest Volume: 422473400.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 63334740.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 21 Volatility: 0.0192 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.20% Standard Deviation: 1.92% Highest Return: 6.44% in 2022 Lowest Return: -1.06% in 2019 Mean Volume: 108077414.29 Highest Volume: 322970300.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53396320.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 22 Volatility: 0.0183 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.36% Standard Deviation: 1.83% Highest Return: 2.98% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.98% in 2012 Mean Volume: 118720716.07 Highest Volume: 285811750.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54347825.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 23 Volatility: 0.0265 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.88% Standard Deviation: 2.65% Highest Return: 4.86% in 2020 Lowest Return: -5.10% in 2022 Mean Volume: 113514415.71 Highest Volume: 284485100.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 48743300.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 24 Volatility: 0.0234 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.56% Standard Deviation: 2.34% Highest Return: 2.58% in 2023 Lowest Return: -5.77% in 2022 Mean Volume: 124912205.71 Highest Volume: 242089180.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53561320.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 25 Volatility: 0.0248 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.42% Standard Deviation: 2.48% Highest Return: 6.50% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.49% in 2010 Mean Volume: 123611130.36 Highest Volume: 242877220.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 56641500.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 26 Volatility: 0.0273 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: 0.19% Standard Deviation: 2.73% Highest Return: 5.49% in 2011 Lowest Return: -5.34% in 2010 Mean Volume: 119984470.00 Highest Volume: 288655960.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53019340.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 27 Volatility: 0.0184 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.23% Standard Deviation: 1.84% Highest Return: 5.54% in 2010 Lowest Return: -1.18% in 2015 Mean Volume: 101717657.14 Highest Volume: 216636675.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54238625.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 28 Volatility: 0.0147 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.47% Standard Deviation: 1.47% Highest Return: 2.73% in 2013 Lowest Return: -2.01% in 2011 Mean Volume: 101748738.57 Highest Volume: 212156300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47308740.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 29 Volatility: 0.0121 Positive Returns: 92.86% Kelly Ratio: 0.4286 Mean Return: 1.20% Standard Deviation: 1.21% Highest Return: 3.50% in 2010 Lowest Return: -1.16% in 2019 Mean Volume: 96302982.86 Highest Volume: 241240100.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 43331520.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 13.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 92.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 7.14% Kelly Fraction: 0.9231 Ticker: SPY, Week: 30 Volatility: 0.0186 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 1.86% Highest Return: 4.25% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2011 Mean Volume: 94711455.71 Highest Volume: 206386080.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47178800.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 31 Volatility: 0.0254 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: -0.43% Standard Deviation: 2.54% Highest Return: 1.93% in 2010 Lowest Return: -7.27% in 2011 Mean Volume: 115657112.86 Highest Volume: 443923300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 49893820.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 32 Volatility: 0.0170 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.06% Standard Deviation: 1.70% Highest Return: 3.28% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.65% in 2010 Mean Volume: 121728574.29 Highest Volume: 576882260.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 41395180.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 33 Volatility: 0.0157 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.59% Standard Deviation: 1.57% Highest Return: 1.28% in 2014 Lowest Return: -4.62% in 2011 Mean Volume: 108393427.14 Highest Volume: 346468900.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 51346820.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 34 Volatility: 0.0249 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.06% Standard Deviation: 2.49% Highest Return: 4.71% in 2011 Lowest Return: -5.62% in 2015 Mean Volume: 107049027.14 Highest Volume: 295991640.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47916700.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 35 Volatility: 0.0189 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.86% Standard Deviation: 1.89% Highest Return: 3.77% in 2010 Lowest Return: -3.26% in 2022 Mean Volume: 112448182.86 Highest Volume: 330178540.00 in 2015 Lowest Volume: 48893060.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 36 Volatility: 0.0202 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.28% Standard Deviation: 2.02% Highest Return: 3.63% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.34% in 2015 Mean Volume: 109450437.14 Highest Volume: 281424250.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 62207775.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 37 Volatility: 0.0237 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.59% Standard Deviation: 2.37% Highest Return: 5.27% in 2011 Lowest Return: -4.79% in 2022 Mean Volume: 116355140.71 Highest Volume: 301800640.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53333260.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 38 Volatility: 0.0249 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.60% Standard Deviation: 2.49% Highest Return: 2.09% in 2010 Lowest Return: -6.69% in 2011 Mean Volume: 121164171.43 Highest Volume: 319570860.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 50468560.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 39 Volatility: 0.0093 Positive Returns: 14.29% Kelly Ratio: -0.3571 Mean Return: -0.88% Standard Deviation: 0.93% Highest Return: 0.72% in 2017 Lowest Return: -2.91% in 2022 Mean Volume: 118843855.71 Highest Volume: 289125120.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 61372040.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.17 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 14.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 85.71% Kelly Fraction: -5.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 40 Volatility: 0.0106 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.71% Standard Deviation: 1.06% Highest Return: 2.34% in 2011 Lowest Return: -1.00% in 2018 Mean Volume: 124806368.57 Highest Volume: 335776200.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 65191120.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 41 Volatility: 0.0272 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.45% Standard Deviation: 2.72% Highest Return: 5.83% in 2011 Lowest Return: -4.13% in 2018 Mean Volume: 119517347.14 Highest Volume: 229047120.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 45680060.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 42 Volatility: 0.0159 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 0.74% Standard Deviation: 1.59% Highest Return: 4.63% in 2022 Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2023 Mean Volume: 121403802.86 Highest Volume: 262503400.00 in 2014 Lowest Volume: 49223620.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 43 Volatility: 0.0239 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.63% Standard Deviation: 2.39% Highest Return: 4.17% in 2014 Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2018 Mean Volume: 114093008.57 Highest Volume: 275998580.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 40530800.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 44 Volatility: 0.0296 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.40% Standard Deviation: 2.96% Highest Return: 5.72% in 2023 Lowest Return: -5.64% in 2020 Mean Volume: 115418818.10 Highest Volume: 286001300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53817900.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 45 Volatility: 0.0265 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 1.41% Standard Deviation: 2.65% Highest Return: 7.05% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2012 Mean Volume: 110731115.71 Highest Volume: 236163280.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 50666320.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 46 Volatility: 0.0188 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.13% Standard Deviation: 1.88% Highest Return: 2.30% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.73% in 2011 Mean Volume: 105487707.14 Highest Volume: 225310040.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 49888620.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 47 Volatility: 0.0241 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.04% Standard Deviation: 2.41% Highest Return: 3.62% in 2012 Lowest Return: -4.69% in 2011 Mean Volume: 89905267.86 Highest Volume: 192498150.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47535550.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 48 Volatility: 0.0226 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 1.52% Standard Deviation: 2.26% Highest Return: 7.19% in 2011 Lowest Return: -1.17% in 2021 Mean Volume: 101511530.00 Highest Volume: 226486300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 41813375.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 49 Volatility: 0.0213 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 0.32% Standard Deviation: 2.13% Highest Return: 3.78% in 2021 Lowest Return: -4.39% in 2018 Mean Volume: 106373016.43 Highest Volume: 218376540.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 57685100.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 50 Volatility: 0.0178 Positive Returns: 28.57% Kelly Ratio: -0.2143 Mean Return: -0.98% Standard Deviation: 1.78% Highest Return: 2.38% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.74% in 2015 Mean Volume: 120513714.29 Highest Volume: 223839060.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 56187100.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.40 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 28.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 71.43% Kelly Fraction: -1.5000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 51 Volatility: 0.0263 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 0.80% Standard Deviation: 2.63% Highest Return: 3.93% in 2011 Lowest Return: -7.25% in 2018 Mean Volume: 125472662.14 Highest Volume: 241227640.00 in 2014 Lowest Volume: 68201160.00 in 2016 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 52 Volatility: 0.0135 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.44% Standard Deviation: 1.35% Highest Return: 3.05% in 2018 Lowest Return: -1.94% in 2012 Mean Volume: 81552437.14 Highest Volume: 176291125.00 in 2018 Lowest Volume: 36675000.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 53 Volatility: 0.0155 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: nan Mean Return: 0.22% Standard Deviation: 1.55% Highest Return: 1.32% in 2020 Lowest Return: -0.87% in 2015 Mean Volume: 69674137.50 Highest Volume: 84184050.00 in 2015 Lowest Volume: 55164225.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 by livingdraculaog1
3rd 2024 COMING SUPER MARKET DROP WARNINGJune 28, 2024 / Lagging Span crossed down for third time price, conversion and base; but not enough to cross green cloud for more than 110% from the high-high of 523, keeping the long trend, mimics 2020 and 2022 crashes.Shortby SolutionsforallNet114
FLUT, DKNG vs BETZComparing FLUT and DKNG vs the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETFby mdivanov110
TLT ExplosionTLT, as we predicted last year is shaping up to be very explosive Its so far one of our best performing trades in our 2024 portfolio RATE CUTS ARE IMMINENTby Heartbeat_Trading7
SILJ- Parabolic move comingAs discussed, similar to Gold Miners, the Silver Junior Miners will go parabolic as we move ahead. Kindly note, this is not a financial advise. Please consider proper risk management. If you like this idea, please like and share. :)Longby coding_thoughts4
GDXD, Junior Gold Miners Bull RunGDXD, Junior Gold Miners are likely to outperform Gold Miners and Gold Spot prices going forward. This is not a financial advise, please consider proper risk management. If you like this idea, please like and share. :)Longby coding_thoughts5
GDX, Gold Miners upmoveAs mentioned in my other post, Gold Miners are going to outperform Gold Spot prices as we move ahead. Expect target range is between 60-65 by end of year. This is not a financial advise, please follow proper risk management. If you like the idea, kindly like and share. :) Longby coding_thoughts3
SPY/SPX: Guidance ForwardIts been a hot minute since I have shared my thoughts/analysis. So it was time for an update! Leave your questions and comments below, take care! Long12:28by Steversteves252543