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MHCI (China) finally a pullbackI was able to enter this position again on the rather hefty pullback. I went with Jan 60$ strikes for this to limit my downside. I am fine with holding a very volatile position. For those who hate that volatility, buying straight shares is definitely viable, my PT is still 69$. We could see a pullback as far as 47$ but I dont like to wait on momentum plays. If we see TSLA or PLTR blow up this week people will look to buy decimated corrections on other sectors. Do remember the prior elevated stochastic RSI lasted 13 weeks.
NASDAQ:MCHILong
by Apollo_21mil
GLD: Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term OpportunityGLD is showing weakness today, confirming that the strong upward trend is now in a phase of consolidation or temporary correction. This phase could present interesting entry points, but in the short term, the acceleration of the declines and the shift of previously bullish indicators to neutral signals suggest a cautious approach is warranted. AMEX:GLD Key Indicator Analysis: Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) at 43.60: This is in neutral territory, indicating that GLD is not yet oversold, but the weakening momentum signals the lack of immediate upward pressure. Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) at 23.02: While close to the oversold threshold, this oscillator is still neutral, hinting that the current decline might not have fully exhausted selling pressure. Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) at -213.86: A clear "Buy" signal, as this extreme negative value suggests the possibility of a rebound. However, it must be considered within the context of broader market conditions, which remain weak. Average Directional Index (ADX 14) at 26.06: Indicates a lack of strong trend direction. This suggests that the consolidation phase could last longer, and a strong trend (either up or down) is not yet established. Momentum (10) at -4.10: This "Buy" signal indicates that selling momentum may be fading, but the bearish MACD (-0.73) contrasts this, suggesting the potential for further declines before any meaningful recovery. Moving Averages: Most short-term moving averages (Exponential and Simple) are indicating "Sell" signals (10, 20, 30 days), reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the near term. However, the longer-term moving averages (50, 100, 200 days) remain in "Buy" territory, supporting the notion of a broader upward trend that is currently in a correction phase. Conclusion: Aggressive Traders: Those looking for short-term opportunities may consider selling intraday rebounds. The weak oscillators and bearish moving averages in the short term indicate that the downside risk is present. These traders can aim for quick, short-duration trades, betting on continued price drops before stabilization. Strategic Traders: More patient, strategic traders can observe how deep this correction phase goes. The extreme CCI value, along with the longer-term bullish moving averages, suggests that GLD is in a corrective period within a larger uptrend. Waiting for a clearer signal of the correction’s depth could provide an attractive buying opportunity with the expectation of new highs before the year-end. In summary, GLD is in a period of caution as the short-term indicators turn neutral to bearish, while long-term signals suggest this is a temporary consolidation phase. Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk; always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.
AMEX:GLD
by CF_444
$IWM Weekly Chart Looks BullishAMEX:IWM small caps have been volatile for quite a while now. I expect that volatility will continue until after the election. When looking at a daily chart it is hard to see any kind of pattern but zooming out to a weekly timeframe it looks to me that it has established a solid uptrend. I will be looking for an opportunity to get long for a move back to the upper trendline. But as you can see on the chart it has ventured outside the trendline but seldom closes above or below. The distance between the lower trendline and the upper trendline measures just over 11% as measured in a straight line. I am looking to squeeze out 8% to 10% as a swing trade. I have an alert just over yesterday’s high at $218.67. Should that trigger, I will put my stop just below last week’s low of 215.08. That looks like a good risk reward for me. All TBD.
AMEX:IWMLong
by jaxdog
MSTU/MSTR parity?What is worth more: The largest publicly traded BTC hodler with $16B in assets, or the TREX 2X ETF, which is less than two weeks old? Markus Theilsen of 10X research thinks MSTR is overvalued vs BTC, but this is false. Microstrategy is just turning bullish in sats, and has ~300% upside in satoshis from here. So Markus is either very dumb, or he’s lying. I’m going to say he’s lying because even he states in an article today that “ market-makers may be forced to hedge their short gamma exposure..”, and “…hedge funds holding $4.6B in short positions on Microstrategy shares could face pressure to cover those shorts if the price surpasses the $180 mark. Ok, we’re above that now, and we were above that when he wrote his article. So, which is it? Is it overvalued vis a vis Bitcoin, or are we about to witness an epic short covering? I believe a massive short covering, which is why I went long MSTU. Price parity? I don’t know, but we will see. Good luck out there.
AMEX:MSTULong
by Shammus01
Weekly $SPY Options SPY Options to Kick off October Election is less than a month away. Investors are taking profit and repositioning defensively until after the election noise. VIX over $21. We’re still just 3% off from all-time highs. The next catalysts are rate cuts, job numbers, and earnings. We expect volatility until the election noise settles. This week, we are leaning bearish to start the week. However, the upside trade has the most room for continuation. We are using 15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation. Best of luck! $569 Call 10/16 Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation OVER $568 Targets: $569, $571, $574 $565 Put 10/16 Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation UNDER $568 Target: $565 AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-8 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will gap up and rally higher - moving away from yesterday's base/bottom. Remember, we had two basing and bottoming patterns over the weekend. Although I don't really count weekend patterns as drivers of price trends, I view them as psychological patterns. In other words, they reflect expectations headed into the following week of trading. So, the basing/bottoming patterns last weekend will likely resolve into a melt up type of trend this week and the gapping/breakaway patterns this week will, as a result, present a strong opportunity to the upside for traders. Recently, I started drawing the "Roadmap" trade signals on the charts for traders. This is an attempt to make things easier for all of you. Allowing you to see where the opportunities are for Options or Share trades more clearly. Ideally, if this works for all of us, then I'll be able to map out 4 to 7+ days of price rotation in clear trade triggers for all of us to use. Now, something interesting I wanted to point out is the SPY has just moved into a #3 phase of an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is a very small pullback off a high - but it is still a valid Excess Phase Peak pattern. If price rallies today, as I expect, this rally will invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern and put us into a strong rally phase targeting $605 on the SPY. Gold is getting ready to move into a basing/support zone over the next 18+ hours - then really start to rally higher. BTCUSD has rolled downward - just as I expected moving into the #3 phase of it's Excess Phase Peak pattern. Again, if you are not paying attention - I'm picking apart all of these charts very cleanly and the information I present should be helping you see and identify better trade opportunities. Tell me how I'm doing. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
18
Elliott Wave View on GDX Favors Pullback Before RallShort Term Elliott Wave View in GDX suggests the zigzag correction should find support towards extreme areas before resume higher to finish the impulse sequence from 5-August, 2024 low. It is showing higher high sequence in daily from September-2022 low and expect short term rally to continue against August-2024 low. Since 5-August, 2024 low, it placed 1 at 39.97 high and 2 correction at 36.22 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Above 36.22 low, it placed ((i)) of 3 at 36.89 high, ((ii)) at 36.44 low, ((iii)) as extended wave at 40.98 high, ((iv)) at 39.02 low and finally ((v)) as 3 at 42.12 high. Below 3 high, it favors zigzag correction in 4 against 6-September, 2024 low before resume higher. Below 42.12 high, it favors pullback in ((c)) of 4 started from 40.79 high. It placed ((a)) of 4 at 39.35 low as 5 swing sequence, while placed ((b)) at 40.79 high. Within ((a)), it placed (i) at 41.22 low, (ii) at 41.95 high, (iii) at 39.96 low, (iv) at 40.75 high and (v) as ((a)) at 39.35 high. Below ((b)) high, it placed (i) at 39.12 low and (ii) at 40.19 high. Currently, it favors lower in (iii) and expect short term weakness towards 38.03 or lower levels to finish zigzag before resume higher in 5 as possible diagonal from August-2024 low.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
SPY For Tomorrow 10/8/2024Key Levels: Resistance: The recent high around 571.97 acts as the primary resistance level. If SPY pushes upwards, this is a critical level to watch for possible rejection or breakout. Support: There is a support zone around 566.65 and 565.49. This area was tested and held as support. If the price dips tomorrow, keep an eye on how SPY reacts to these levels. Moving Averages: The shorter-term EMA (15) is crossing under the 161 EMA, suggesting that bearish momentum is gaining strength. This cross can indicate a continuation of the current downtrend if no reversal signal is shown. Volume Profile: There’s a significant volume node near the 567.66 level, meaning this area has seen heavy buying and selling interest. If SPY trades around this level tomorrow, it may act as a consolidation or decision point where price either breaks up or down depending on volume direction. MACD: The MACD is slightly bearish as the MACD line crossed below the signal line, indicating a potential shift to the downside. However, the histogram bars are decreasing, which could signal weakening bearish momentum and possible reversal soon. Candlestick Patterns: The red candle (around 12:00 PM today on October 7) shows bearish pressure. However, the green candle that followed it suggests buyers stepped in, creating a minor rejection. Watch how the price behaves around this candle low tomorrow for potential reversal signals. Volume: There was a significant increase in volume during the recent drop, indicating strong selling pressure. However, a return to lower volume on the following candles indicates indecision or lack of continuation, which could lead to consolidation. Plan for Tomorrow: Bullish Scenario: If SPY holds above the 567.66 level and moves toward the 571.97 resistance, consider long positions on a break of that level. Use the volume profile to see if the buying momentum sustains. Bearish Scenario: A break below 566.65 could bring SPY down to test the 565.49 level. If selling pressure increases, a further drop could be likely. Make sure to monitor pre-market data and the first 5-10 minutes of the open for any significant volume spikes or price reactions to these levels. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions. I am not responsible for any losses incurred from using this information.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
Potential Downside Scenario with High Volatility for QQQGiven the recent performance of QQQ, which moved slightly upward during the second half of September but failed to hit a new all-time high, there's a sign of relative weakness compared to the broader market, which did achieve multiple new highs. Additionally, the Mag-7 stocks are showing short-term indecision, with some even hinting at potential bearish momentum. Key Indicators for NASDAQ:QQQ : Oscillators: Most of the oscillators, including the RSI (50.38) and the Stochastic %K (51.85), remain in neutral territory, indicating no clear momentum in either direction. Momentum (-5.99) and MACD (1.69) both signal short-term bearish sentiment. Moving Averages: The majority of short-term moving averages (10, 20) are in sell territory, while the longer-term averages (50, 100, 200) remain in buy territory, reflecting the broader uptrend. This suggests that, despite the recent pullback, QQQ is still supported by a longer-term positive trend. Ichimoku Base Line (485.55) and Hull Moving Average (486.10): These levels are also signaling potential consolidation, as they point to selling pressure near key levels. Conclusion: As a result, there is a potential downside correction with increased volatility in the near term. If this scenario materializes, the current mixed signals from major tech stocks and the overall technical setup will reinforce a bearish trend, causing risk-reward conditions to deteriorate rapidly. In such a case, long positions should be carefully reviewed and managed accordingly. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always assess your own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by CF_444
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-7 Roadmap UpdateThis short video updates traders related to the SPY & GOLD Cycle Patterns and how I see price playing out over the next 48+ hours. I also highlight the resistance level setting up in BTCUSD. Should be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Trend Channel Chart Projects Higher Prices for USO & WTIUUSO & WTIU Here's an interesting and unusual long view projection of USO on a weekly Trend Channel Chart with Fib levels. I like this set up here & this construct of the weekly chart. I feel like it clearly shows the trends within the longer wave cycle and creates defined price levels for a trade - So looking at the chart I see a clear zone up to the previous highs. I can place a stop close by in the low 70's with a price target for the next leg up at 96-ish.. with a time frame of around 10-ish weeks.
AMEX:USOLong
by hangonstaycalm
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 572.97 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 570.79 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
Why I'm Bullish in the market on the midtermIntroduction I want to break down why I’m optimistic about the current market conditions and share my strategy as we approach the release of CPI data. I’ll walk you through the big picture—the macroeconomic landscape, the Fed’s approach, economic indicators, and the geopolitical situation MACRO ANALYSIS 1. Fed’s Approach Dovish Let’s start by looking at the macro environment. Right now, the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts. Market now is expecting a 0.50 cut at the end of the year. A good question is why the Fed is cutting rates. In my opinion, the most important reason is that inflation is almost at its target of 2% year over year. This is crucial because it tells us that the economy isn’t overheating anymore. The Fed no longer needs to keep rates high to control inflation. So what happens when rates come down? Companies can borrow money at lower costs, consumers can spend more freely, and overall, this adds fuel to the economy. We’re also seeing quantitative easing, meaning more liquidity is being pumped into the market. This will likely lead to a weaker US dollar, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A weaker dollar can boost exports and benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies and equities. Adding to that, CHINA, Japan and potentially the EUR are taking dovish behavior in their monetary policy, CHINA stimulating the economy strongly. BOJ reducing the hawkish,Adding more fuel to the global markets. 2. Economic Strength We’re seeing strong economic indicators. JOLTS Job opening 8.14M vs 7.64M, ISM Services PMI were stronger than expected 54.9 VS 51.7 and continued above 50 indicating expansion. NFP data 254k vs 247 number better than expected, Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% better than expected. These are signs that businesses are still hiring, consumers are still spending, and overall, the economy is not strugglin. This is important because it means we’re not cutting rates due to a weak economy and helping it—. The FED is cutting rates because inflation is coming under control, not because businesses are struggling. This distinction is key for my optimism. Lower borrowing costs paired with a strong economy create a good environment for growth. This means that a dovish monetary policy, strong economy potentiate the growth, expansion, investment on the economy and business that this is reflected in the equities prices. 3. Geopolitical Conflict The third piece of the puzzle is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Yes, this adds some uncertainty to the global outlook, but from a market perspective, geopolitical events tend to create short-term volatility. As long as the situation doesn’t escalate further, I don’t see it as a mid-term threat to the broader market. When the situation stabilizes, we could even see markets gain more confidence. For now, I’m not letting this weigh too heavily on my decision-making. Elections USA, just adding on this part that both sides are going to continue expanding the debt and increasing the expenditures, Trump is proposing more stimulus to the economy with a more aggressive reduction of the rates. Generally both sides offers similar paths but Trump more aggressive CONCLUSION In the midterm the macro indicates a good environment for the equities to continue higher. Some names I’m looking for are in the crypto space such as IBIT, ETF as TQQQ and stocks as NVDA, Meta. But I will cover in another letter
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AJTRADER84
Bad day for TLTTLT has lost its uptrend, and lost the 200D EMA. There's a very long term support line at $94, perhaps we'll get a bounce here that keeps things level until we get the next rate cut. I'm out of TLT for now, will look to rebuy when I see something that looks like a bottom, or around Halloween in anticipation of a run up leading into the Nov FOMC. Anyone have ideas on why TLT is falling during a period of rate cuts? Are we so far ahead of the game that we know rate cuts will ignite inflation, which will push TLT down? .. or is the international community pulling away from US treasuries, reducing demand.. and the next wave of inflation gets driven by global TBill sales? Your thoughts are welcome below.
NASDAQ:TLT
by JebusLives
13