ETF market
$IWM ANALYSIS, KEY LEVELS & TARGETS for Day Traders for 11.11.24All right, so I WM is holding at the top of the implied move right now and above the election gap from last week, clearly. We’re at the top of the implied move here so I’m thinking we’re at the high of the day and that 35 EMA is down there in the Read looking like a really good target. Sorry that there was no video last night. I will definitely get one out tonight and good luck guys.
Also know that we are just underneath all-time highs which is around 244.5 (a few pennies under that) in my opinion I think we see that as resistance and that is due to the idea of tariffs and things getting more expensive in the near future. Small caps will be hit the hardest by tariffs and I think this is gonna be a double top for a IWM. One day at a time for sure, and that is just my opinion, but just know that all-time highs are near and just outside of the implied move for the next two days
$QQQ ANALYSIS, KEY LEVELS & TARGETS for Day Traders for 11.11.24QQQ is off to a downward start today towards the 35 EMA, which is underneath the implied move. The implied move is between 510 and 518. The 30 day volatility is between 507 and 521. The two levels to know today there are the 35 EMA, which I already mentioned underneath the employ move that is currently at, 510. And then underneath that we have the up gap from last Thursday and that is at 5:05. Other than that, the bottom of the implied moves on tomorrow’s contract is 509 so that might also be a good strike to look towards today, if you’re looking for spreads or a target to close the day on.
$SPY ANALYSIS, KEY LEVELS & TARGETS for day traders 11.11.24All right, so today’s implied move is between 595 and 602. The average 30 day volatility between 591 and 604. Tuesday’s contract is between 594 and 603 the 35 EMA is just underneath the implied move so expect a flat or down day today. And keep in mind there is an up gap from last Thursday near the bottom of the trading range so that could offer a place where we see support. Stupid Willy is also at extreme overbought. See you guys tonight on the video.
In the Green: Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETFNASDAQ:MAGS looks extremely bullish.
Last week price action printed a massive bullish engulfing bar and RE bar above previous all time high signaling lots of strength. It is highly unlikely we get a second ideal entry opportunity but in the case we do, dca at around $50 is the way to go.
There is a bullish time at mode confirmed
- Expiry set by the end of November
- Next target is $55
ARKK Breakout: Targeting $80 with Volume and Momentum on Its SidARKK is looking primed for a breakout, with some exciting moves on the chart.
Resistance Break: After grinding below $54, ARKK finally pushed through, eyeing a bold target around $80—a potential 48% gain from here.
The Gap Factor: ARKK left a gap around $48 on its recent run-up, hinting at strong demand. If momentum cools, this gap could act as a magnet for a quick retest, adding some extra intrigue to the setup.
Trend & Momentum: The SMA 150 is starting to level out, suggesting a potential shift in long-term momentum. RSI is touching overbought territory, signaling heavy interest, though a brief pause wouldn’t surprise.
Bottom Line: Volume is backing this breakout, and with well-defined patterns and targets, ARKK’s chart is setting up for an interesting ride ahead.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-11: Gap Potential In Trend ModeHappy Veterans Day.
Thanks to all the current and past service members who have dedicated so much time and effort to protect all of us from the evil in the world. If you have anyone in your family that has served in the military, please take a moment to call and thank them for their service today.
As today is a Federal holiday, I expect the markets to be somewhat muted in terms of trends.
We are still seeing BTCUSD rally higher as the Trump win delivers a clear mandate related to global crypto/blockchain opportunities.
We are still dealing with a market in a post-election rally phase. I believe this rally phase will diminish over the next 5 to 7+ days and move into the early stages of my Anomaly phase.
My research suggests the US and global markets are likely to move into a consolidation phase before attempting to move into a very late phase Santa Rally.
So, at this point, with the SPY breaching 600 in pre-market trading, I would suggest traders start to PULL PROFITS and prepare for what I believe will be a moderate consolidation of price over the next 5-7+ trading days.
Gold and Silver are still FLAGGING in an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is currently a bearish price trend - attempting to break higher to move into a rally to Phase #3 (consolidation).
We could see some big price rotation today if Gold and Silver break above the FLAGGING trend.
Buckle up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P Soars on Election Results in a Stunning RallyLast week's market movements provided a strong example of how impactful certain events can be on sentiment and momentum. In the last market recap, I highlighted uptrend continuation as the most likely scenario. However, at the start of the week, there was absolutely nothing on the chart suggesting a V-shape pivot.
Week started on a weak note, but Tuesday marked a shift, as buying interest began to surface, quickly escalating into a stunning overnight gap once preliminary election results emerged. Essentially, the election results had a similar impact on the market as an earnings report can have on a company's stock price. This influx of optimism solidified bulls' control over the market, reinforcing a strong weekly uptrend.
The buying wasn’t limited to a few sectors; instead, it was widespread, touching every major sector by the week’s end. Such broad-based buying underscores that the rally is not sector-specific but part of a larger, systemic movement. While we’re seeing robust upward momentum, it’s worth noting that both weekly and daily RSI levels are approaching overbought territory. However, as often observed in strong uptrends, prices can comfortably persist in the overbought zone. With no clear resistance above, I would strongly discourage trying to catch the top.
Important levels to watch include 585 (VAH) , which is key in the event of a potential retest of the last consolidation zone, and 568 (major weekly low) , which buyers must protect to maintain control.
P.S. If you missed this insane rally, don’t blame yourself too much. Had the election outcome been different, it’s easy to imagine the market would have plunged just as dramatically. So holding short-term position was similar to trading company earnings, which is, in a way, a form of gambling.
XBI: Sellers Finally Taking A Chill PillHey, guys. Appreciate everyone tuning in! Wanted to take the opportunity to review AMEX:XBI . I certainly have a disappointing relationship with this one from past attempts to carry the ETF in my portfolio. Now, I tempt fate again. P.S. hope you don't mind the quick sojourn chat about COINBASE:BTCUSD and the strong weekend move there.
I believe there is certainly a short term play higher in XBI. But I also believe it can lead to a really explosive longer term move as well. I suppose, as always, only time will tell. Hope it was helpful to point out this set up at any rate.
Hope you enjoyed the review, and best of luck out there!
$TLTa good hedge yieahh
volume gap till $117 area
higher lows seem to be forming
If I was conservative I would wait to break previous high and test that new support, but you know me I am already in for long term.
RSI and MACD going up
INDEX FUNDS OR BUSTFor as much fun as we have in chart vzn taking some amazing picks, we always want to make sure we are thinking long term. Always ensure you are invested in index funds, and play around with a % of your portfolio but never the whole thing.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences.
yes, don't mind if I pick some more up here.For as much fun as we have in chart vzn taking some amazing picks, we always want to make sure we are thinking long term. Always ensure you are invested in index funds, and play around with a % of your portfolio but never the whole thing.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences.
Never go full degen, future you will thank youFor as much fun as we have in chart vzn taking some amazing picks, we always want to make sure we are thinking long term. Always ensure you are invested in index funds, and play around with a % of your portfolio but never the whole thing.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences.
SPY Momentum Push: Key Levels for Scalping & Intraday TradingSPY is showing strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with a significant rally and potential resistance forming near the $600 psychological level. The trend remains upward, but overbought conditions may lead to a brief consolidation or pullback.
Price Action Analysis:
Trend and Momentum:
SPY has been trending upward with a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows, maintaining support above the 21 EMA.
The current price is hovering just below $598-$600, a key resistance zone. A breakout here could lead to a test of all-time highs near $610.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $598-$600. A decisive breakout above could trigger more buying, targeting the next resistance at $605-$610.
Support Levels:
First support at $583.27 aligns with previous consolidation zones.
Secondary support around $579.47, where the 50 EMA is likely to provide additional backing.
Key level to watch below is $567.89, acting as a strong demand zone if a deeper pullback occurs.
Volume and MACD Analysis:
Volume has been declining slightly as the price climbs, indicating a need for caution if a breakout above $600 does not come with increased volume.
MACD is showing signs of flattening, suggesting potential divergence, which could hint at a slowing momentum.
Scalping Opportunities:
Long Scalp Entry: Consider entering above $598 with a tight stop at $596, aiming for a breakout scalp targeting $605-$610.
Short Scalp Entry: If SPY fails to break $600 convincingly, a short scalp entry at $598 could target the $583 support level.
Swing Trade Ideas:
A strong breakout above $600 with volume could be a good swing entry, aiming for a move toward the $610 level.
If SPY fails to hold above $583, a bearish swing trade setup targeting $567-$568 support is a potential play.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making trading decisions.
So, what happens next? I am not sure if everyone is wondering the same as me, but after the election results and seeing the PA reaction, I wondered “So…. What now?”.
A challenging and interesting question that I don’t think I or anyone can answer with the upmost confidence. But I wanted to take the time to write out a post that combines some statistics, a recap of my YTD ideas on SPY and where we are now, and what the future could look like.
I also hope to provide some perspective into the PA. I know for many of you, trading is new and a new exposure. For me, who has been trading since 2018, this year has felt like the most bullish year I have ever traded. But when I look at the objective data, it actually spells a different story.
So make yourself comfortable, its probably going to be a long post!
Forging into another era of Trump
I will save any political opinions for elsewhere. But its interesting that Trump has been re-elected as my nascence in trading arrived under the Trump’s presidency. And interestingly enough, my indoctrination into trading a Trump market was trading a bear market! I started trading during the 2018 bear correction when the market saw an initial flash crash that was pretty quick. It rallied back up to make another ATH and then did a longer bear correction where it actually corrected below the 500 day mean:
As well, this was a mean reversion on the log linear scale:
As a personal anecdote, I am still very much a permabear, despite always shilling long more or less in the current climate, and I feel like this permabear mentality arrived from the first market I traded being a bear market.
From 2016 to 2020, the market had about 4 crashes, 1 bear market/correction and the rest was all bull market. No real difference from any other 4 year period. The only major difference during 2016 – 2020 period were the crashes were a bit shallower than other crashes traditionally, with the average being about 11% vs overall average being about 13% for SPY’s nascence.
What this means going forward? We will likely see a few crashes and at least one bear correction in the coming years. However, perhaps the extent of the crashes and corrections will be muted, if, under the new presidency, USA is able to raise its GDP and boost economic production, which happened during the 2016 – 2020 term.
What about the Statistics?
Taking fundamentals and politics out of the equation and simply looking at what the market can tell us about itself, we can see some other interesting tidbits.
Either before continuing or after reading, I suggest you check out a previous post I did about the outlook for the S&P based on historical behaviour, it turned out to be spot on:
Let’s look at standardized returns on SPY:
SPY’s current annual return is 0.27. We are not, by any stretch of the imagination, at historically high return levels. But, close.. ish.
As you can see from the information in the chart above, the historically high return happened during the tech bubble and was 0.38, or 38%. SPY currently rests at 27%.
If we take the average returns in general, no filtering for bearish or bullish years, we get 0.10 (rounded), or 10%.
The average return of only bullish years is 18%. If SPY were to close at the average this year, we would see SPY retrace back to 557. The median is 19%, which would be a retrace to 561.
Other Statistics applicable
One thing that I have used a bit this year is a Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations take the normal distribution and randomly assign values from the normal distribution over x number of simulations.
The simulation I have used consists of 200 simulations, using 2023 data, and plotting the average of the central tendencies:
If we zoom in a bit closer, we can see where the simulations all agree of dips (red) and rallies (green):
If we want to take the simulation in totality, it shows that SPY could, theoretically, see a high this year of 621 to 650:
If you remember my earlier post, the annual ARIMA for SPY put the 80% confidence level at 591, and the 95% confidence level at 621. So 621 could indeed be a target observed into EOY.
Probability and more probability!
Let’s talk about probability for a second. To ascertain a more accurate assessment of probability, I am going to use data for SPX. Keep in mind, SPX and SPY track the same thing, so the returns will be identical. Because we are standardizing returns, they will also be the same value.
Just to put your mind at ease, SPY’s approximate returns YTD are: 0.2634936. SPX’s are 0.2669222. The difference is statistically insignificant.
So using SPX data, which we have since 1878 ish, let’s calculate the probability of closing at or above where we are now (>= 26%).
The probability of SPX closing with 26% returns is 15%.The probability of SPX closing at 18% is around 26%.
What this means is, we can’t say that it is likely that SPY will maintain these levels into EOY. Its not impossible, 15% probability is actually pretty big, a bit bigger than I expected. But the odds favour more a more reasonable close in the 18% area.
If we want to take it a step further, and calculate what is the probability that SPX/SPY closes on a High. The probability that SPX will close on a high is 16%. Again, I am a little shook by this high percent! But obviously its not as likely as if it were to be 50% or 80%.
Forecasts
Don’t worry, we are nearing the end of this post. If you are reading to this point, thanks! I appreciate your interest in my random tangents of applying stats to markets!
I want to briefly touch on Forecasts and outlooks. The market is naturally bullish. The U.S. has a new president that tends to have an emphasis on a strong economy. What is the most likely forecast?
This is a complex question. I can accomplish a general forecast through using algorithms, but it doesn’t really take into account the economic influence that may be at play if we do see a strong economy into 2025. Remember I indicated that during 2016 – 2020, we did have crashes and bear market corrections, but they were shallower than average, likely mitigated by the strong economic policy during that presidency.
Using a basic, machine learning algorithm to forecast the end result.
So what I am going to do is use SPX again, because again more history, and run a forecast based on this period here:
And I am forecasting it over the next 252 days, or 1 trading year from Friday (November 8th, 2024). The result actually puts us back into 2022, with this being the scaled plot of the forecast:
And lastly, Targets!
So, let’s quickly talk targets.
Remember, our ARIMA 95% level on the year is 621. That means, 95% of closes should fall below 621.
In addition, we also have a high probability modelled target at 564. This is hit > 85% of the time.
And lastly, based on a seasonality assessment, our most similar year is 2021. This puts our scaled annual high at approximately 601.
The targets we should absolutely see into EOY are: 564 and 601. The sequence of events remain up for debate.
Conclusion:
So, this is a long post, let me just give you the cliff notes of what to take away from it:
Cap on the year should be 621.
Retracement target should be around 564.
High of the year should be around 601.
There is about a 15% chance we close the year at this position or higher.
There is about a 26% chance we close below this level but at or above 557.
Overall assessment reveals a possible correction/crash. Its unlikely we see much lower than 564, even getting to 564 seems rather impossible at this point, but crashes come swift and unexpected
I will be honest, I am not sure we see too much downside before EOY. The market is on a cocaine fueled rocket that shows no signs of slowing. I “feel” that its just going to go up until there is a reality check into the following year. But this is not based on the objective data, just my own “feelings” which are not all that reliable, haha.
That’s it everyone! Thanks for reading, safe trades and happy rest of the trading year!
SPY: Free Trading Signal
SPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry Point - 598.24
Stop Loss - 606.81
Take Profit - 579.18
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
VOO ETF is in an uptrendVOO ETS S & P 500 ,Is in a uptrend .
I'm expecting a correction into the imbalance
or possibly previous support level .
Then a push up to the upside to previous high.
VTI Is currently in an uptrend reaching all time highes!1) I'm looking for a continuation to the upside with a restest at previous support level. Then continue to the upside to previous high
2) If there is a break in structure at previous support, then I'll look for confirmation of a change of character to the downside , only if it doesn't respect the previous support level.
VTI reaches all time highes! Expect continuation to the upside
This is Just a brief Summary of VTI ,Long term hold investment .
IPOThe IPO stock is in an upward trend on the monthly chart, and the weekly chart indicates that it is likely to reach a higher peak than $77. The downward trendline formed by the 2021 high has been broken. We will wait for a pullback and enter when the green trendline is touched or when the red downward trendline is tested. We will monitor the stock in the coming period to identify a good entry zone. I will post an update on the chart.
Hey SPYLOVERS ! Enjoy the Bull Ride !!!! Election Week and Interest Rate Cuts Did Not Disappoint Us at All
The truth is, it was a very difficult week to predict price movements. However, out of the two possible scenarios I shared last week, Scenario #1 was the winner, and it was the one I had the most confidence in!
At this moment, the price is in "no man's land," meaning there is no historical price data on the chart where we can find a level for the price to hold or replicate its movement. In this case, I believe that, from here on, the price will move based on upcoming economic news or as we approach the date when President-elect Donald Trump will officially become the President of the United States (POTUS).
Let's enjoy this bull run that is happening—these are important times for the country, and we need to take advantage of those swings!
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis. See you next week!
Stock Market TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOG MSFT AnalysisNvidia Stock NVDA Forecast Technical Analysis
Apple Stock AAPL Forecast Technical Analysis
Microsoft Stock MSFT Forecast Technical Analysis
Google Stock GOOGL Forecast Technical Analysis
Amazon Stock AMZN Forecast Technical Analysis
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF flips its Gold ETF in market capIt's insane how quickly BlackRock's NASDAQ:IBIT Bitcoin ETF surpassed its AMEX:IAU Gold ETF by market cap.
Digital gold is better as IBIT tops $34B in assets. Digital gold FTW.
