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Multi decade asset allocation shift in the process?Rest of world equities (in particular europe) had been underperforming the US for essentially the post GFC era. It seems we are close to getting a test of the support for this decade+ trend. If we get a clear breakdown it might mean its time to bet on equities outside the US. A few months ago we have gotten a gold breakout against the S&P which seems to me to be the start of a multi year trend. If rest of world equities outperform that should mean that value would outperform growth. There is value in the US market in particular in the Energy, Healthcare and Small cap financials.
AMEX:SPY
by walmutlaq2003
SPY S&P 500 etf Oversold on the RSI ! 2025 Price Target ! The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is flashing a major buy signal, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sitting at 28.33 — firmly in oversold territory. Historically, every time SPY has entered oversold levels on the RSI, institutional buyers have stepped in aggressively, driving sharp rebounds in the following weeks and months. The last time SPY dipped below the 30 RSI threshold was during market pullbacks in 2022 and 2023 — both of which were followed by significant rallies as institutions capitalized on discounted valuations. The current setup is no different. With earnings growth stabilizing, inflation cooling, and the Federal Reserve signaling a potential shift toward rate cuts in the second half of the year, the backdrop for a recovery is aligning perfectly. Technically, SPY is also approaching key support levels that have held strong in past market corrections. The combination of an oversold RSI and strong institutional appetite at these levels creates a compelling case for a bounce. My price target for SPY by year-end is $640, representing over 15% upside from current levels. With sentiment stretched to the downside and technical indicators flashing green, SPY looks primed for a sharp and sustained rebound. Now could be the perfect time to position for the next leg higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 12, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ceasefire Proposal in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺: Ukraine has expressed willingness to accept a month-long ceasefire proposal, leading to a surge in the euro to five-month highs. This development has introduced volatility in European and U.S. equity markets, influenced by ongoing U.S. tariff plans. ​ 🇺🇸🇨🇦 U.S. Tariff Increases on Canadian Imports 🇺🇸🇨🇦: President Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%, escalating trade tensions and contributing to a deepening stock market sell-off. This move has raised concerns about inflation and economic growth, affecting investor confidence. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, March 12: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation. Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
SPY...for those why spy, let's eye n find some levelsUsing a still in progress gap detector tool and the classic CyQo-B0wStr1ng method, we arrive at some interesting levels. As always, use the Log function on the bottom of the scale and see what's on another level for levels...yeah remember to just credit CyQoTek if it interests you or yah pass it on- more attention so more people make money is important. I don't sell things cause im not a shill or grifter. "If someone tells you they will charge you for a service you don't want to do or can't do and they know what they are doing and all goes well, great, benefit all around. When someone tells you you need to pay them for something cause they want to help spread their findings and make everyone successful...it is called a con or ploy. Your parents ever charge you to teach you to eat; your grandfather ever need a subscription to teach you to fish: When someone can make money...good money...trading, and needs to sell something or wants you to be part of the "Sub-Club", run...don't walk away." Top 3 Hedgefund founder speaking over a private dinner I got to attend. He followed with a simple statement: - When you starve your kingdom, you eat well until the last peasant falls. But if you give your kingdom gold and serve fair justice, your grandkids will still be ruling as if no one realizes there is a monarchy...just an all knowing person who gives to all if everyone gives it their all. anywho....enjoy: 4hr gap fill far: 4 hr gap fll view close: 4hr gap fill n fib channel:
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
TSLL + TSLA... He can buy one, but can you stop a fire saleSo here is an interesting chart of Tesla long etf. Just for consideration, nothing special. Fib connection at the highs of the two red circles and then connecting to the low at the bottom red circle. The Cyqo-B0wstr1ng at work... Can Log function it or not to see if you levels agree. closer view at a smaller time frame. All line same as Daily: TSLA chart: non log 4hr: log 4hr: 4hr overview with log: 4hr overview with no log: Enjoy
NASDAQ:TSLL
by CYQOTEK
2
IWM Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 031125Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 202/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
AMEX:IWM
by fibonacci6180
Possible Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern?!?I originally thought this may be a triple top or triple bottom but there may be an inverse head and shoulder pattern forming. We will not know for sure until the next shoulder possibly forms which would be around the end of April, 2025. A typical inverse head and shoulders pattern is a trend reversal pattern that signals a potential reversal in a downtrend.The SPY is currently NOT in a downward trend but this may still be an inverse head and shoulder pattern. We will have to keep a close watch on the market in the next month. Regardless, the SPY should go upward tomorrow and for the next week as the indicators are changing to a bullish signal, including the hourly, 2 hour, etc up to and including the 6 hour indicators. The daily indicators should start changing shortly. The targets I have in place are: 35 point move: 600. This is based on a conservative move of the last upward movement from Jan 13 to Jan 24th. 1 fib move: 613.37 7 day move: Mar 19. This is based on the last upward move from Jan 13 to Jan 24th. If it hits one of these targets, I am out of my trade. My stops are: 1) the low of the previous Heikin Ashi candlestick, 2) 2 red Heikin Ashi candlesticks, 3) a specific dollar amount for a total loss for my trade or 4) a specific dollar amount per contract. If it hits one of those stops, I am out of my trade. I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. 1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks. 2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better. 3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer. 4) And, it gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals. (This information is from Dr. Keith Wade who speaks at the Wealth365 Summits. The next summit is in April.) I personally find: * the 5 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next half and hour. * the 10 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the next hour. * the 30 minute indicators typically represents what will happen in the daily. * and, the hour indicators typically represents what will happen in the next week. Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green daily Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering. I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I am trying to take trading classes through Udemy, mostly because they are cheap. LOL! I usually wait for a sale where the courses are as low as $14.99 instead of over $100 per course which they have regularly. As well, you may be able to get access to Udemy through your local library depending on where you live. www.udemy.com I always try to attend the free Wealth365 Summit which is held about 4 times a year where I always pick up some more useful information. The next one will be around April. Again, I am not affiliated with this company in any way. www.wealth365.com Happy trading everyone!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
Bullish Butterfly Pattern Formation Triggers Reversal On $SPYAround 1:30PM on 03/11/25 the AMEX:SPY formed a bullish butterfly harmonic pattern on the 4H chart, leading to a massive rally above its nearest confluent price reversal zone (PRZ). Meanwhile, the TVC:VIX which has pushed well beyond its latest bearish harmonic pattern, has finally broken below it's nearest confluent PRZ with no more potential bearish patterns left in the upside while also forming a potential bullish pattern to the downside. While AMEX:SPY has formed several bullish harmonics in the 4H during the selloff in the past two weeks, which have resulted in near term rallies, will this time be different now that the TVC:VIX has finally taken out all of its upside targets? Tomorrows economic data can be the catalyst to create continuation to the upside with a near term target of $588.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Zimad
The pivot circa: SPY $551.50 WAS FREE - NO STRINGS ATTACHED - MARKET = SUPER OVERSOLD PRIMED FOR A MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE THE TRIGGER? LIQUIDITY FROM TARIFFS - THAT IS NEXT TRUMP PLANNED IT. AND HERE IT WILL COME On the technical side - yes, everyone sees this as voodoo magic - but it is a property of dynamic systems. What do you mean? Ahhhhh, measure and measure well from the previous move... it is a secret!!! Don't underestimate the smartest president we have ever had... It takes finance-trained people to forecast properly... Wharton is a great school (Trump) - hehehe, not the school of hard knocks (or maybe rocks). The move fits, time range, volume and positioning. Be observant ... we need you wealthy. Some clues just because I am nice: "Moniac Model of the economy - it is in new Zealand. that will help you visualize. The guy was Phillips". They are all short - when you buy now you buy IOUs What does it mean? hahaha, well a line of buyers that must buy ..... Save this post - and reference it later. The pivot circa: SPY $551.50 Now, this is a nice post, what do you say? Remember this post was made 31 minutes ago, that was 1.09 PM on Tuesday March 11, 2025 The concept of the Random Walk is a fallacy promoted by water cooler talkers - and you know there are so many of these troglodytes. This one is the biggest water cooler talker of all times (my opinion). I call this practice bullshiting Richard D. Wolff A prominent contemporary Marxian economist, Wolff is known for his critique of capitalism and advocacy for worker cooperatives. He is the founder of Democracy at Work and author of Understanding Socialism One more edition to this post: The relationship between liquidity, interest rates, and tariffs. I wanted you to visualize the Moniac (representation of the economy developed by Phillips the famed economist, that uses water to represent capital flows, you should really learn this model it will help you tremendously in the future). Thinks of rates ruled by liquidity, The FED sells T Bills to get cash, it promised to pay interest and return the money latter. Well the Tariffs come in to banks galore, and then the FED has excess liquidity and has to sell less T-Bills so the Fed lowers the rate it will pay and that is that, so simple, and so COMMON SENSE, and yet, the crowd can't conceptualize it. No matter, the Tariffs will have this effect and rates likely will be required to come down. See now how tariffs are much better than income tax revenue, and all other taxes in reality? According to my estimations, if we go to a tariffs based tax revenue collection, the economy in the USA stands to gain 4% points just because of this switch. Wink wink, get smarter ....
AMEX:SPYLong
by imcnf5c4ff
1
S&P 500 is gearing up for a drop to $348.11 or even $218.26.SP:SPX AMEX:SPY are gearing up for a potential crash. Markets and indices seem aligned for a downturn. What will trigger it? Hard to say, but watching the stock and crypto markets, it certainly looks that way. My expectations for SPX / SPY: ➖ Fibonacci 161.80% targets have been reached. ➖ Key downside levels: $348.11 and $218.26. TVC:DXY The dollar index is leaning towards growth for now. I think it might follow this scenario. Let’s keep an eye on how things develop.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SergioRichi
4
Europe’s defence awakeningThe race to bolster European defence capabilities is well underway. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have intensified calls for increased defence spending. The continent, long reliant on US security guarantees, is now facing a critical inflection point. Recent moves by the US administration to engage with Russia without consulting its European allies or Ukraine have underscored the urgent need for Europe to take charge of its own defence. This geopolitical reality has forced European leaders to acknowledge that relying on US support is no longer a guaranteed strategy, accelerating discussions on independent military capabilities and funding mechanisms. Why is European defence spending rising? For decades, the US has outspent Europe on defence, contributing more than two-thirds of NATO’s1 overall budget. However, NATO estimates that in 2024, 23 out of 32 members met the 2% GDP2 defence spending target, compared to just seven members in 2022 and three in 20143. More ambitious goals are being discussed. Poland is leading the way with a 4.12% of GDP2 defence budget, while discussions at NATO suggest some countries may need to increase spending to 3% or higher1. Adding another layer of complexity is the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which is beginning to reshape US defence priorities. The shift from cost-plus to fixed-price contracts under DOGE is putting financial pressure on defence companies most exposed to the US, which may see constraints on long-term spending commitments. This could have two contrasting effects: while it may limit US capability to fund European defence through NATO, it could also drive European nations to increase domestic procurement and reduce dependency on US defence systems. Additionally, emerging security threats, including cyber warfare, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven military technology, and the growing presence of authoritarian regimes, have reinforced the need for increased defence investments. Europe’s reliance on outdated Cold War-era military equipment is another critical factor, pushing leaders to modernise their arsenals. How will Europe fund its defence expansion? Ramping up defence spending is a monumental task, especially given high sovereign debt levels across Europe. Yet, leaders are exploring creative solutions to secure the necessary funding. One approach is to reallocate existing European Union (EU) budgets, with discussions centring on repurposing unspent Cohesion Funds and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. However, legal restrictions within EU treaties may limit their direct application to military expenditures. Another potential route is the issuance of European Defence Bonds, mirroring the successful NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery fund. By pooling resources at the EU level, this could offer a coordinated and cost-effective funding mechanism. At the same time, private investment and public-private partnerships are gaining traction. Defence contractors and institutional investors are increasingly seen as strategic partners in financing large-scale projects, particularly in weapons systems, cyber defence, and artificial intelligence. Governments may leverage these collaborations to accelerate procurement and technological advancements. Despite these options, one thing is clear—Europe must find a sustainable funding model to support its defence ambitions without derailing economic stability. Whether through EU-level financing, national budget reallocations, or private-sector involvement, securing long-term defence investment will be paramount in ensuring Europe’s security and strategic autonomy. Impact on defence stocks: can the strong run continue? European defence stocks have had a strong run since 2022, driven by surging order books, government contracts, and the realisation that military spending is no longer optional. Over the past year, Europe defence stocks rose 40.8%, outpacing broader European equities (+11.4%)4 . Defence stocks trade at a historical P/E5 ratio of ~14x, slightly above the long-term average, though still below peak multiples6 There are three key trends fuelling defence stock momentum: Backlogs at record highs: European defence contractors are sitting on unprecedented order books, with consensus forecasting 2024-29 CAGRs7 of ~11% for sales and ~16% for both adjusted EBIT8 and adjusted EPS9. These growth rates compare to just 8%, 11% and 12%, respectively, for the 2019-24 period10. Government commitments: with long-term contracts locked in and additional spending likely, demand visibility remains strong. EU’s push for strategic autonomy: The European Commission has proposed a European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), aimed at spending at least 50% of procurement budgets within the EU by 2030 and 60% by 203511. Conclusion: a new era for European defence The European defence sector is entering a new era of investment and strategic autonomy. With rising geopolitical risks and uncertainty over US support, European nations are taking proactive steps to build a more robust and self-sufficient military ecosystem. While funding challenges persist, the momentum behind higher budgets, technological investments, and NATO commitments makes this shift not just necessary, but inevitable. With the EU backing structural shifts in procurement, defence stocks remain well-positioned, particularly those with exposure to land (for example, ammunition, vehicles) and air (for example, air defence, missiles, drones) domains. 1NATO = The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (an intergovernmental transnational military alliance of 32 member states). 2GDP = gross domestic product. 3NATO 2023 Vilnius Summit Declaration. 4Bloomberg, Europe defence stocks are represented by the MSCI Europe Aerospace & Defence Index and European Equities represented by MSCI Europe Index. 5P/E = price-to-earnings. 6Bloomberg as of 31 January 2025. 7CAGR = compound annual growth rate. 8EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes. 9EPS = earnings per share. 10Company data, Visible Alpha Consensus, WisdomTree as of 31 January 2025. 11European Commission: Joint communication to the European Parliament, the Council as of August 2024. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBOE:EUAD
by aneekaguptaWTE