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The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next (chart)b]📉 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next Video idea here: Friends, if you’ve seen my last two posts, you already know — we’re no longer relying on broken halving cycles or outdated narratives. We’re now in the realm of The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR — a framework that maps how trust moves between Bitcoin and traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries . And today’s update? It might be the most important one yet. 🔁 Quick Recap: What Is This Model? This model tracks Bitcoin’s relationship to long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT), cycling between: • Correlated Periods (Blue): BTC and TLT move in the same direction • Inverted Periods (Green): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions And here’s the magic: These flips often occur right at key structural levels in the bond market. 🧠 Where Are We Now? We’re still in an Inverted Period — the 6th major one. • TLT (Treasuries) are dropping again • Bitcoin is rising against that backdrop • The previous support at ~86.8 failed — we are now sliding toward the next major level That level? 📌 71.32 – the all-time structural support for TLT going back to 2004 It’s the same zone that sparked Bitcoin’s explosive moves in the past. 📉 My Expectation: • TLT continues sliding lower • It finds support around 71–76 • Once that happens, we enter a Reversion Phase — where Bitcoin and TLT rise together again • Bitcoin doesn’t just “survive” the macro shakeout — it thrives on it This would be the 6th inversion-to-correlation flip in the model — and historically, these have marked powerful Bitcoin trends. 📊 Why This Model Matters This isn't just about price. It’s about trust . It’s about rotation . It’s about macro capital flow . Forget halving hype — this model focuses on how institutional trust migrates between old systems (bonds) and new systems (Bitcoin). When TLT fails, Bitcoin rises. When TLT finds support, Bitcoin joins in. This is not just a macro hedge. This is the new cycle narrative . 🔍 What to Watch: • Does TLT drop to 71? • Do we find a bottom and reverse? • Does BTC correlate again and break out above 115? If so — we may be on the cusp of a new correlated bull leg . This post builds on the foundation I laid here: 📌 📌 This is part 3. The signal is there. The rotation is happening. The trust is shifting. Are you watching? One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
1
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next📉 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next Friends, if you’ve seen my last two posts, you already know we’re not talking about your average halving theory anymore. We're entering a new era of Bitcoin cycle analysis — and this model may change the way we look at macro rotation forever. This is an update to The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR — a cyclical framework built around one question: When trust flows in and out of traditional assets like Treasury bonds... what does Bitcoin do? In this post, we zoom into the latest data: • TLT is testing key support again • Bitcoin is still rising — but in an inverted period • The next major reversion event may be approaching I'll walk you through what happens when correlation flips , why these cycles compress over time, and how we could be approaching the next Bitcoin surge — not because of supply, but because of macro trust flow . If you’ve been wondering what’s really moving the market... this might be the chart you’ve been missing. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
1
Short term high QQQ tgt $434I had a great day with dowsing the highs & lows on QQQ today, and since hitting this high, I asked what's next & keep getting breakdown. I did a week by week reading at the beginning of the month, and this week is supposed to take a bit of a dive & be "bottoming out". The weekly readings have been pretty helpful, so I hope this continues. Anyway, this could be absolutely incorrect, but twice I've gotten a move to the downside on QQQ of around 5.6-.7%. I also got some figures lower, but I'm not confident they are prices. They were 425-22. Sometimes numbers come that are something other than what I ask or expect, so it can get confusing. It's possible there's another little pop first, but It seems like a drop is imminent according to my work. Watch for a low on Wed./Thurs? I have lots of dates for this week including for a high today.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by JenRz
SPY short targets for this weekI expect this area to offer at least a bounce. There may be something like that on Thursday. This is based on my dowsing work. I also left my prior idea, which was done at the beginning of the month to see how things shake out with projecting week by week with my work. Obviously, the standout dates were very relevant. I don't get that there are any new dates to add. Intuitively, I will say I heard the word, "floor". So where we land may be support for a bit? We'll see. I'm still very new at intuitively hearing/receiving messages & things.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JenRz
Industrial ETF May Face ResistanceThe SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF dropped in early April, and some traders may expect another push to the downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 13 low of $128.26. XLI peaked $0.44 under that level this month, which may suggest old support has become new resistance. Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently had a “death cross” below its 200-day SMA. That may suggest the long-term trend has gotten more bearish. Third, the stochastics oscillator’s leading line crossed under the smoothing signal line. Fourth, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained under the 21-day EMA. Finally, XLI hit a 52-weeek low of $112.75 on April 7. Is a retest of that support needed? Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF (XLI) 1-year: +4.06% 5-years: +122.11% 10-year: +135.02% (As of March 31, 2025) Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
AMEX:XLI
by TradeStation
QQQ, Weekly RSI has reached oversold territory just 4 other timeIt's also came at or near a long-term bottom. If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention. The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory — something that’s only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend. We’re also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline that’s defined the bull market since 2018. If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, I’ll be looking to go long. Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms. Not calling the exact bottom — just positioning where the risk makes sense.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by vladislav_xo
3
$DIA - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened DIA with a gap up and over the trump tweet gap and we were met with resistance right at the downward facing 30min 200MA You can see the three arrows all week — you don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. Wednesday UHC and Jerome powell both took a toll on the Dow, and Friday we gapped down and traded near the bottom of the implied move. I look to the Dow as a leading indicator of market health. When we started in slide down off of ATH’s we saw it in the DOW first. Dow had a rough week here last week. Red 35EMA rejected at the 30min 200MA Technically a beautiful week. All while closing within the implied move. ALSO - take a look at where we saw the signal line turn red.
AMEX:DIA
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again. Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again. Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. We did drop underneath that 35EMA on Wednesday when Jerome powell spoke and then reclaimed it on Friday!! So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of Trumps Week gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again. Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again. Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of the interest rate gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$QQQ - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA. ++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++ And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday. On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing down almost 3% And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA. Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish) 30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA. ++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++ And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday. On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25% And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA. Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish) 30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move. Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months. I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results. This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer). Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos. I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend. Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now. But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success. And that is what this is all about. Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets. I was lucky. I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years. Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading). One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE. Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want. If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity. OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week. The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending. Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
12
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously. ​ 🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot. 🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 21: No major economic data releases scheduled.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 22: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.20 million Previous: 4.38 million Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 23: 📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0 Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8 Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.​ 📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 675,000 Previous: 662,000 Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.​ 📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET): Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. 📅 Thursday, April 24: 📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -0.5% Previous: 1.3% Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.​ 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 230,000 Previous: 223,000 Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📅 Friday, April 25: 📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 76.5 Previous: 77.2 Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Junk Bonds on Bounce?The High Yield Corporate Bond ETF AMEX:HYG is a widely watched risk sentiment gauge, as seen within the renowned "Fear and Greed Index," and closely tied to credit conditions and investor appetite for riskier debt. It reflects how much confidence the market has in lower-rated corporate borrowers—making it a strong proxy for broader risk-on/risk-off shifts. Technically, HYG looks like it may have completed a five wave impulsive structure from the 2022 lows, followed by an ABC correction that found support near 75.60. That (C) leg could mark the end of the correction, especially with recent price action holding above Kumo cloud support on lower timeframes, hinting at a potential reversal or at least stabilization. Fundamentally, there’s a lot in flux. Inflation is still sticky, which has kept the Fed cautious on any immediate rate cuts. At the same time, tariff talk targeting Chinese imports rekindled fears of trade friction and margin compression—especially for leveraged companies. Credit stress is also rising, with default rates ticking up in weaker sectors like consumer credit and commercial real estate. The silver lining for bulls: the U.S. dollar has recently pulled back, easing pressure on corporate borrowers and global funding conditions. A weaker dollar can be supportive of high-yield credit as it reduces debt servicing burdens, especially for firms with dollar-denominated liabilities. Junk bonds are approaching a pivotal level. A clean break above the $78 would strengthen the case for a bullish reversal and a new impulsive phase. But if resistance holds and price rolls over, it may warn that markets aren't out of the woods yet. In any case, HYG remains a powerful gauge within the market’s risk engine.
AMEX:HYGLong
by NantzOS
2
Trading Idea: Range Breakout StrategyBias: Neutral-to-Bullish (for breakout) Setup: SPY is consolidating between $520–534. A clean break above this zone could signal continuation toward the pivot level at 562.75. Entry Options: Aggressive Long: Buy near current levels (~526), stop-loss below $520, target $534 short-term and $550–562 swing target. Conservative Long (Breakout): Buy above $534, on confirmed breakout with volume. Stop-loss just below $528. Target: $548–562. Bearish Scenario (if breakdown): If price falls below $520 with strong red volume, potential retest of $511 support and further down toward $500 or $480 (S2). Short entry below $520, stop-loss at $526, target $511 then $500. Volume Insight: Strong green bar at bounce near $480 indicates buyer interest. Current candles show indecision; breakout or breakdown will likely be volume-driven. disclaimer: The trade idea presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by eemani123
6