ETF market
Bear flag on 1hr chartDecent size bear flag on 1hr chart. It’s looks like it setting up for tomorrow. It is currently breaking the bottom trend line and completing the pattern. If it rejects we could see it bounce one more time before the drop tomorrow. If this closes at 555-556. We could see in the next couple of days 540-545.
TLT 103American 20+ bonds continue to hold a significant weight in my portfolio, and most importantly, the factors supporting their growth are increasing day by day.
Inflation in the U.S. will decline not due to monetary policy but because of economic stagnation and potential risks. Tariffs will raise goods prices, but at the same time, they will negatively impact consumer sentiment.
TLT is heading toward 103, which aligns with my technical outlook.
SPY at a Pivotal Zone – Bounce or Breakdown? 🧠 Market Structure + Price Action (1H)
* Trend: Downtrend confirmed. Recent Break of Structure (BOS) followed a Change of Character (CHoCH) from bulls to bears.
* Bearish momentum intensified after SPY broke support near 570.90, then plummeted through 564.85 and 558.11 key demand levels.
* Current price: 554.15 — bouncing slightly within a local demand/reaction box, but still under selling pressure.
* Price is now consolidating below structure, but inside a potential reaction zone (possible dead cat bounce or minor retracement).
🔍 Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
* CHoCH & BOS align with institutional exit behavior. The BOS confirms bearish intent.
* SPY has entered a minor demand zone, but hasn’t reclaimed any bullish market structure yet.
* If it breaks below 549.68, the next support zone opens toward the 540s.
🔁 Indicators
MACD:
* MACD is starting to curve up, with histogram showing decreasing red momentum – a potential bounce brewing.
Stoch RSI:
* Oversold condition with both lines crossing upward — supports a short-term relief rally or retracement.
🔥 GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis
* IVR: 37.8 (Moderate); IVx Avg: 22.6
* Put Positioning: Very high at 71% — bears are loaded up.
* GEX Sentiment:
* GEX is red 🔴🔴🔴 — strong gamma exposure to puts, favoring downward pressure.
* Highest negative NETGEX / PUT Support at 555.83, which is just above current price — this acts as a magnet and pivot.
* If SPY stays below this level, dealer hedging accelerates selling.
* Major Put Walls at:
* 545: GEX8 at -22%
* 544-540: Very deep bearish gamma — potential acceleration if we break lower.
* Call Resistance (Gamma Wall):
* 573 → 577 → 580 zone = Gamma ceiling.
* Dealers short calls here and hedge by selling, which adds resistance on rallies.
⚖️ Trade Scenarios
🐂 Bullish Reversal Setup:
* Trigger: Break & close above 555.83 with volume.
* Target: 558.11 → 564.85
* Invalidation: Below 549.68
* Risk/Reward: Favorable if volume confirms.
🐻 Bearish Continuation Setup:
* Trigger: Break below 549.68 with follow-through.
* Target: 545 → 540 zone (GEX & PUT walls)
* Stop-Loss: Above 555.83 or structure retest
* Confluence: GEX alignment + broken structure + dealer flow pressure.
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bearish bias still intact — but signs of short-term bounce forming. Likely we see a dead cat bounce unless 555.83 is reclaimed with conviction.
🎯 Actionable Strategy:
* Intraday scalp: Long toward 558 if price reclaims 555.83.
* Swing short: Below 549.68 toward 540 using SPY or PUT options.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
$SPY April 2, 2025AMEX:SPY April 2, 2025
15 Minutes
Downtrend intact as long below 200 in 15 minutes for the day.
For the fall 570.02 to 546.87 AMEX:SPY has retraced to 61.8 level around 561.
For the rise 546.87 to 560.69 holding 552-553 is important.
For the day consider the last rise from 552.73 to 560.69.
Holding 555-556 we can expect 561-563 as target for the day. It should be resisted around 564-565 being 200 averages in 15 minutes.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-1-25 : Temp Bottom PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find temporary support near recent lows or a bit lower.
I'm not expecting much in terms of price trending today. I do believe the downward price trend will continue today with the SPY attempting to move down to the 548-550 level trying to find support.
The QQQ will likely attempt to move downward toward the 458-460 level trying to find the support/base/bottom level today.
Gold and Silver are in a moderate consolidation phase that I believe is transitioning through a Flag-Trend-Flag-Trend-Flag-Trend type of phase. Ultimately, the trend will continue to push higher through this phase as metals have moved into the broad Expansion phase. This phase should see gold attempt to move above $4500+ before the end of May/June 2025.
BTCUSD is rolling within the 0.382 to 0.618 Fibonacci price levels related to the last price swing. I see this middle Fib level and the "battle ground" for price. I expect price to stall, consolidate, and roll around between these levels trying to establish a new trend.
Thus, I believe BTCUSD will move downward, attempting to move back down to the $78,000 level.
Nothing has really changed in my analysis except that we are experiencing a 48-96 hour consolidation phase before we move back into big trending.
Play smart. Position your trades so that you can profit from this rolling price trend and prepare for the bigger price move downward (targeting the bigger base/bottom near April 15, 2025).
Get some.
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Gold Miners Stocks Go 'The Rife Game' in Town. Here's WhyGold mining stocks have emerged as one of the top-performing asset classes in 2025, driven by a combination of surging gold prices, improved profitability, and shifting investor sentiment.
Here’s fundamental and technical analysis of the key factors behind this outperformance, by our @PandorraResearch Super-Duper Beloved Team :
Record-High Gold Prices Fuel Margins
Gold prices surpassed $3,000 per ounce in March 2025 for the first time in history, marking a 14% year-to-date increase. This rally stems from:
Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, economic and political uncertainty including U.S. trade policy volatility.
Central bank buying , particularly by China, India, Turkey, and Poland, to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
Anticipated interest rate cuts , which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Higher gold prices directly boost miners’ revenues.
For example, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index NYSE:GDM returned nearly 30% YTD by early March, outpacing both physical gold OANDA:XAUUSD (+14.5%) and the S&P 500 SP:SPX (-3.8%). Companies like Agnico Eagle Mines NYSE:AEM and Wheaton Precious Metals NYSE:WPM reached all-time highs, while ASX-listed miners such as Evolution Mining ASX:EVN (+39.5% YTD) and West African Resources ASX:WAF (+56.6% YTD) outperformed Australia’s broader market.
Margin Expansion and Shareholder Returns
Gold miners are leveraging rising prices to improve profitability:
Stabilized costs for labor, energy, and equipment have widened profit margins.
Free cash flow growth enabled dividend hikes and share buybacks. U.S. Global Investors, for instance, offers a 3.91% annualized dividend yield.
Undervalued stocks: Many miners traded at historically low valuations relative to gold prices, creating buying opportunities. Barrick Gold NYSE:GOLD (P/E 15.6) and Newmont Corp NYSE:NEM (P/E 15.5) remained attractively priced despite gains.
Royal Gold NASDAQ:RGLD , a streaming company with a 60.3% operating margin, exemplifies how non-traditional miners capitalize on gold’s rally without direct operational risks.
Sector-Specific Catalysts
Mergers and acquisitions. Consolidation activity has increased, with larger firms acquiring high-potential projects.
Copper exposure. Miners like Evolution Mining benefit from rising copper demand, diversifying revenue streams.
Institutional upgrades. Analysts at Macquarie and Morgan Stanley endorsed Newmont and Evolution Mining, citing currency tailwinds and free cash flow potential.
Macroeconomic and Market Dynamics
Dollar weakness. A declining U.S. dollar enhances gold’s appeal as a hedge.
Equity market volatility. With the S&P 500 struggling, investors rotated into gold equities for diversification (0.3 correlation to broader markets).
Fiscal deficits. U.S. budget imbalances and inflationary pressures reinforced gold’s role as a store of value.
Outlook for 2025
Analysts project further gains, with gold potentially reaching $3,300 per ounce. Miners are expected to sustain momentum through:
Operational efficiency improvements to align with higher gold prices.
Continued capital discipline , avoiding overinvestment in new projects.
Dividend growth , as seen with U.S. Global Investors’ monthly payouts.
Technical Outlook
The main technical graph for Gold Miners ETF AMEX:GDX indicates on further Long-Term Bullish opportunity, to double the price over next several years, in a case of the epic $45 mark breakthrough.
Conclusion
In summary, gold miners’ 2025 rally reflects a confluence of macroeconomic uncertainty, disciplined capital management, and gold’s structural demand drivers. While risks like cost inflation persist, the sector’s fundamentals and valuation upside position it as a compelling component of diversified portfolios.
--
Best 'Golden Rife' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - NVDYGood Morning,
Hope all is well. Love these dividend ETFS - always have some floating around in my portfolio.
Here we have NVDY starting to max out in volume. NVDY tracks options with the NVIDIA stock but also pays out some nice dividends on a monthly basis.
Since I am unsure of the market bottom at this moment it is one I will collect short term and assess when we get to our resistance. Since I know the market has a short term bullish trend I will take advantage of it.
Thanks
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.
🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.
🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 49.5%
Previous: 50.3%
Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rejecting The BreakdownDoes this big rejection bar mean the selling trend is over?
I doubt it.
In my opinion and experience, big rejection bars like this reflect a critical price level where the markets will attempt to REVISIT in the near future.
Normally, when we get a big rejection bar, like today, we are testing a critical support/resistance level in price and you can see the difference between the SPY, DIA and QQQ charts.
The QQQ price data is already below the critical support level and barely trying to get back above the rejection level. Whereas the SPY and DIA are still above the rejection lows.
I see this as a technology driven breakdown and because of the continued CAPTIAL SHIFT, we may move into a broader WAVE-C breakdown of this current trend.
I see the SPY already completing a Wave-A and Wave-B. If this breakdown plays out like I expect, we'll see a bigger breakdown in price targeting $525-535, then possibly reaching $495-505 as the immediate ultimate low.
If you follow my research, there is a much lower level near $465-475 that is still a likely downward target level, but we'll have to see how price reacts over the next 2+ days before we can determine if that level is still a valid target.
Watch for more support near recent lows tomorrow, then a potential breakdown in the SPY/QQQ/DIA.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
QQQ Call (Big Picture)Just marking up QQQ to look for an entry long-term. Looking at the big picture from the monthly, pulled out the Fibster to get my retracement levels. After breaking the trendline, looks like it can head down to 38.2% and head back up or further down to the 52W L. My prediction is that it will bounce from the support I see in the past, which is where I have it marked as an entry point. Let me know your thoughts if you see this.
QQQ - Double Top BreakdownQQQ has formed a double top, a classic bearish reversal pattern indicating potential trend exhaustion. The price has broken below the neckline, confirming the pattern and signaling further downside. If selling pressure continues, we could see a move toward the target zone.
This breakdown suggests that bulls are losing momentum, and unless QQQ can reclaim the neckline, the bearish bias remains intact. However, false breakdowns can occur, so it's important to watch for a potential retest of the neckline before further downside.
📊 Key Levels:
🔵 Entry: Breakdown confirmation below support
🔴 Stop Loss: 524.65 🔻 (Invalidation level if price reclaims this zone)
🟢 Target: 458.59 ✅ (Measured move from the pattern)
🔎 Watch for:
📌 A retest of the neckline as resistance
📌 Increased volume confirming the breakdown
📌 Possible continuation if sellers remain in control
This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity for bears, but staying cautious of any reversals is key.
VNQ/SPY Stagflation trade?Surprised to see reits continue their underperformance against the S&P, I understand how most market participants view reits as a long term rate play (yields down reits up etc) however I think the market is not taking into account that reits should perform "relatively" well in a stagflationary environment. In other words reits might get a stagflationary bid.
Bullish Swing Trade - SOXLHey all -
Sharing my mid-term analysis of SOXL. We've reached buy levels on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
Ideal entry between $16.46 - $18.12.
With patience, swing up to the $25-31 dollar area. Specifically for options, I'd suggest an August expiry, with an ITM or ATM strike price.
Happy Trading!
TLT longer term high...I do dowsing and checked on TLT today. My work is suggesting this is a longer term high and that TLT will move down to around $85.
I'm not the best at getting time frames for things to occur, but I ask anyway. At a minimum dates more often than not signal some kind of reversal - though it may only be short term. Anyway, I get $85 in about 21 days, or 3/19. I like TLT options. They're cheap and if TLT can keep from any close higher than these highs, I think good odds for down.