XOP To The Moon?As we have seen, XOP has struggled to maintain itself even with all of the middle east tensions going on. I still believe we will see a higher high soon enough. Patience is key. I am going to let the chart do its thing.
ETF market
Notice Anything In Correlation Of Elections And Oil?If a Democrat takes office, we are going to see oil continue on its way up. Elliott Wave is guiding the way. I called this out a while ago, and if you have bought since then, you have a better average cost than me.
I am sure everyone will be tuning in to the election. No one knows who will win.
Red Vertical Lines: Republican Wins
Blue Vertical Lines: Democrat Wins
EWW - Another Long-Term ViewThe new president tauted her first 100 days in office mexiconewsdaily.com yet the stock remains in a downtrend. On a chart pattern look, it appears that we are in the midst of a larger-term Right shoulder of a massive head and shoulders formation.
The shorter-term formation also appears to be a head and shoulders formation with the neckline coming in just below 44. From there, it could pattern out the right shoulder before dropping again below 30.
Trump hasn't even taken office yet and Mexico is feeling the pain. While things might turn around, it's hard to feel positive in a socialist political environment. Should interest rates in the US continue to rise, negatively affecting US stocks, EWW tumbling down to the $30 level wouldn't be too much of a surprise.
Who is interested in Selling Puts under $20 ?Inauguration is coming.
Do we know if Trump will give Elon what he is expecting?
Place your bets.
I will be buying below $ 20.
Selling Puts to get paid just in case.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 47 Covered Call... for a 44.52 debit.
Comments: Adding to my position at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta strike against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 44.52/share
Max Profit: 2.48
ROC at Max: 5.57%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 2.79%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
$SPY 4hr 200MA breaking downAMEX:SPY 4hr 200MA breaking down
Testing that 4hr 200MA here…. Look to the 35EMA on the weekly timeframe for support if it does break under
MSTZ....well positioned for a quick profitIf BTC drops a bit more (low 90k), MSTZ should have at least 5-10% upside. All the TAs nicely align to an upside, but we'll have to see what big papa bear goes....
stay tuned, but this looks real sweet!
All the best and safe trading!
TSLL COVERED CALLDoing this one again. The premiums are so cool and fun. 2.4%?!! For 2 weeks? Wow. And, The ability to sell much higher than it is now?
Plus, the trend is still bullish on TSLA. :)
Opening (IRA): TNA Feb 21st 36 Covered Call... for a 34.33 debit.
Comments: Starter position on weakness/high IV in lieu of the less liquid URTY. Selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 34.33/share
Max Profit: 1.67
ROC at Max: 4.86%
50% Max: .84
ROC at 50% Max: 2.43%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals should I be able to get in at break evens better than what I currently have on.
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share
Max Profit: 2.93
ROC at Max: 6.22%
50% Max: 1.47
ROC at 50% Max: 3.11%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-14 : Harami/Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stay somewhat flat/sideways related to building a base.
Yesterday, 1-13, my broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would establish a "base" - leading to a "peak" on 1-18 and a major top on 1-20. Because of this, I believe the markets will attempt to melt upward into a peaking pattern (with the SPY possibly reach 595-598) before stalling out ahead of the Inauguration event.
Gold and Silver may follow this trend after stalling a bit today. Overall, I believe Gold & Silver will move upward attempting to hedge against global risk factors playing out over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin rejected the breakdown move yesterday - setting up another attempt at a THIRD sideways FLAG formation in an EPP pattern. This is very unusual - but given what the markets have been doing over the past 30 days - it is what it is.
More than likely, we'll see Bitcoin rally a bit higher (near $100k), then stall again and attempt another breakdown event.
Yesterday's new low suggests a breakdown is likely.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Weekly Options | Last Week's Put +185%AMEX:SPY
Our range is $570 to $589 with our entry pivot at $580. For these options, we use 15-30 minute candle CLOSES for confirmation and stop-loss.
📜 $585 CALL 1/27
Entry: Confirmation over $580
Target🎯: $584, $585, $589, $595
📜 $570 PUT 1/27
Entry: Confirmation below $580
Target🎯: $575, $570
SPY Gap Filled - Local Bottom - More SendTrading Fam,
I am not overlooking the small H&S pattern seen on this chart. I am simply presenting alternative data. What if that H&S pattern fails? It can happen. Even if we do drop further, our target down is that pink horizontal trendline. Will we get there before more buying ensues? Possibly. But this market is still bullish. The larger bull trend is still very much in tact.
Additionally, we can see that an important gap has been filled. Therefore, it is very possible that the small H&S pattern we see here will not reach its target down. If that is the case, we'll turn up again, continue through my Target #2 which was already hit, and proceed onward and upward to my final Target #3 (670-700) until that is reached sometime in 2025. Therefore, you are not wrong to start DCA'ing in at this point.
✌️ Stew
CONL to the MAXThis chart is showing CONL with a fib pitchfork and key levels. As you can see, this chart trades very technically and is coming up to a very strong lower trendline that also coincides with a strong descending trendline (red channel top). I think CONL is about to rock.
$SPY 5DTE viewAMEX:SPY 5DTE view
Ok, so this is the 5DTE View, so for Friday’s contract.
569-592 is this weeks trading range and the election gap is in focus.
The 1 week 35EMA is underneath our trading range and I will go over the in one of the videos this week as to why that is important.
We are also sitting right on top of the 4hr 200MA
FXI options expiring on January 17 and February 21, the strategyFXI Technical Analysis: Testing Key Support Before Potential Upward Move on Policy Developments
Description:
In this analysis, we examine FXI (FTSE China 50 Index ETF) and its recent volatility trends between January 17 and February 21, 2025. FXI has seen a significant drop in implied volatility from 117.10% to 37.82%, accompanied by a drastic reduction in open interest from 123,059 to 5,247. This indicates a potential decrease in market uncertainty regarding the Chinese market.
Key Points:
Implied Volatility: Decreased from 117.10% to 37.82%
Open Interest: Decreased from 123,059 to 5,247
Near-term Volatility: 3.10 (>1 abnormal)
Analysis: FXI is likely to test the lower support level around January 17, which also aligns with a critical resistance area. Following this, based on upcoming policy decisions related to Trump’s inauguration and U.S.-China relations, FXI may either move upwards or consolidate sideways. My assessment leans towards a greater potential for an upward movement, driven by positive policy developments.
Trading Strategy:
Support Test: Monitor FXI as it approaches the key support level for potential entry points.
Upward Bias: Look for bullish signals post-support test to capitalize on the anticipated upward move.
Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected downward movements.
Join the Discussion: What are your thoughts on FXI’s potential move? Do you agree with the upward bias based on policy developments? Share your insights in the comments below!
SPY Approaches Key Resistance! Will the Bulls Continue? Jan. 14Technical Analysis Overview:
1-Hour Chart:
* Trend: SPY remains in a descending channel but has shown a bounce from the lower trendline near $575.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Shows a bullish crossover, signaling potential upward momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Indicates overbought conditions, suggesting possible short-term consolidation or pullback.
30-Minute Chart:
* Price Action:
* SPY is testing the $583 level, just below key resistance at $584.
* Volume remains moderate, supporting the recent bounce but lacking a strong breakout signal.
* Pattern: Descending wedge structure, which often leads to bullish breakouts upon confirmation.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
* $580: Immediate support zone and HVL (highest volume level).
* $575: Critical support, coinciding with PUT support and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
Resistance Levels:
* $584: Immediate resistance and 2nd CALL Wall.
* $586: Major resistance level aligning with the 3rd CALL Wall and CALL resistance zone.
* $599.7: Previous high and upper channel boundary.
GEX Insights:
Key Gamma Levels:
* Positive Gamma Walls (Resistance):
* $584: 17.44% (2nd CALL Wall).
* $586: 18.47% (CALL Resistance).
* Negative Gamma Levels (Support):
* $580: Key PUT Wall (-6.87% GEX).
* $575: Highest negative NETGEX and 3rd PUT Wall (-54.41% GEX).
Options Metrics:
* IVR: 29, indicating low implied volatility.
* IVx: 19, well below average, suggesting muted price fluctuations.
* Call/Put Bias: Puts dominate at 7.5%, leaning bearish despite the bounce.
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Break above $584 with volume confirmation.
* Target: $586-$590.
* Stop-Loss: Below $580 to minimize risk.
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Rejection at $584 or $586.
* Target: $580-$575.
* Stop-Loss: Above $586 to limit losses.
Directional Bias:
* SPY's bounce from $575 suggests bullish momentum, but significant resistance at $584-$586 could cap gains. A breakout above $586 would likely lead to a retest of $590-$599.
Conclusion:
SPY is consolidating near critical levels, with $584-$586 as immediate resistance. A breakout could lead to further bullish momentum, while a rejection at these levels may push the price back toward $580-$575. Traders should monitor volume and price action closely for confirmation.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
HEU rejecting daily resistance trendline Canadian HEU is rejecting daily resistance trendline despite OIL rallying today and American energy companies performing green today
May have to do with tariff threats.
Ticker: HED for shorting HEU
$KWEB - Good RRAMEX:KWEB descending wedge play. Ideal entry below $27 but current level presents a good risk-reward.
With China trades you would need to be ruthless in taking profit.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
MSTU.....nobody puts baby on the corner! Yes, I know that I've taken both sides on MSTR, but when the situation change you must adapt! Moving on, MSTU seems to be nicely positioned to jump. Look at the price action and the yellow line! What do you see? I see opportunity....
If BTC (pappa bear) behaves and does take a massive dump, you could be making a nice profit here!
Best of luck and always do your DD!
Spy Road To $615 or $565?Well What is it JoeWtrades $615 or $565!!!!
Let Me Be Very Clear $565 is very possible but $615 is even more probable!!! So with that being said and if any of you guys actually watch any of my content I'm a huge advocate For What? Swing Trades lol!! So even if this market decides to test $565 This would make me even more money, How By adding more contracts expiring further out other than my existing march contracts, lets say April May ect. Picking up as the market may or may not attempt $565! So I'm Betting heavy that this market will continue to go up and this is not the start of a Bear Market just yet!!!
In No Time WATCH I will be posting how we smashed $615 Road to $615 In the Near Future lol!!!
So Yes i you want to know Its $615 and yes I'm long Bullish ext lol hope to see you all on the right side,
And be sure to take advantage of my 1 month free gift on patron link below limited number of gifts
As always Goodluck traders and safe trades!!!
As always JoeWtrades
