ETF market
SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 28 Abril SPY (Top Left)
Possible Buy Zone:
➔ Between 545 and 547.39
➔ Confluence with Put Wall (545) and RB Bottom (547.39)
Major Resistance/Target:
➔ 550 - 553 area (Call Walls)
➔ If broken, eyes on 555+
Quick Game Plan:
Zone Action Notes
545-547 Possible Longs Strong support from options walls
550-553 Potential Profit Taking / Short Setup Call Walls overhead
Quote to remember:
"Price respects the walls — until it doesn’t. Trade the reactions, not the predictions."
📈 QQQ (Top Right)
Possible Buy Zone:
➔ 472-473 area
➔ Supported by Zero Gamma and a previous consolidation zone.
Resistance/Target Zone:
➔ 474.50 - 476 (Highlighted Sell Zone)
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 28 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 28, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
SPY Green Light to All Time Highs?As VIX is sitting around 25, this is the first Monday in I can't remember how long we aren't gapping down at open! I'll take it! There is a ton on the calendar this week: jobs, first print for Q1 GDP, PCE, ISM mfg, and a ton of consequential earnings! Not to mention will we get a couple deals announced this week. Feels like India, UK and Japan are close. This could spur a market rally to continue! Did a ton of work on Elliott this weekend, but didn't create a video. Essentially, since we closed in the wave 1 of the red C leg (on daily and weekly basis), we have invalidated a chance of a fifth leg lower (thank God!). This means we are in first impulsive intermediate 5 wave that should go to all time highs (next Apr)! Since we already have two minute impulsive waves that were similar in size, we likely will finish the minor wave 3 as pictured and then since 1 & 3 of minor waves will be similar in size the impulsive 5 wave target will be as pictured as well. Remember it is simply the net of waves 1 through 3 times 0.618 and add that to the finish of wave 4 in either case. After wave 3, we will get a pullback, but this will be a buy the dip opportunity finishing the 5th wave around 580ish. After this we will get a deeper corrective wave but if sentiment is positive it may be shallow, only 38% to 50%, so will want to re-evaluate at that point! This is why it is important if you are investing not to FOMO, as there will be many opportunities to buy the dip!
Massive Head & Shoulders + Death Cross on Big 7A massive head and shoulders pattern is forming on the Big 7 tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA). After a strong rally, a death cross (50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA) has appeared, pointing to possible weakness ahead.
Short-term concerns: right shoulder is forming now. If it holds, we could see a bounce. If the right shoulder fails, expect sharp drops and potential broader market reversals.
Long-term view: markets could still move higher over time, but short-term risks are rising. This setup resembles the 1999-2000 period before the dot-com crash. The AI bubble could be nearing its peak, with current leaders losing strength and new players stepping in.
Key to watch: neckline of the head and shoulders and how the market reacts to the death cross.
disclaimer: this is not financial advice. for informational purposes only. trading involves risk and past patterns do not predict future results. always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.
$SPY - Recap of Last Week
Last week we had a from bottom of the week on Monday to top of the week on Friday an 8.25% move
We opened the week with a gap down and dropped hard on Monday - and then up from there.
Tuesday gap up
Tuesday was TSLA earnings in after-hours.
Gap up Wednesday then drop back down to the 35EMA and a pretty solid squeeze into the end of the week.
So do we get violently slapped out of that gap?
Nasdaq vs SQQQ, 1 year daily chartThe pattern emerging shows the convergence between the two trend lines. The trend lines show the change from zero, indicating positive or negative trend. The trends are currently at a point where SQQQ is beginning to trend positively, as Nasdaq tests the negative direction. That leads to the cross over as the trends change.
A longer view shows a better picture of where they have come in the past few years to have gotten where they are now. This helps to understand the ultimate outcome of the current cross-over.
Legend:
Nasdaq-hollow candles
SQQQ-solid candles
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 28 – May 2, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 President Trump's 100th Day in Office: Wednesday marks President Trump's 100th day of his second term. His administration's protectionist tariffs continue to influence global markets and political landscapes, with notable impacts observed in Canada, Australia, and the UK.
📉 Trade Tensions and Economic Indicators: Investors are closely monitoring the effects of recent U.S. tariffs on economic performance. Key data releases this week, including GDP and employment figures, will provide insights into the economy's resilience amid these trade policies.
💼 Major Corporate Earnings: This week features earnings reports from major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, and McDonald's. These reports will offer a glimpse into how large corporations are navigating current economic challenges.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 28:
🏠 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (10:00 AM ET):
Provides data on rental and homeowner vacancy rates, offering insights into housing market dynamics.
📅 Tuesday, April 29:
📈 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET):
Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March.
📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 30:
📈 GDP (Q1 Advance Estimate) (8:30 AM ET):
Provides an early estimate of economic growth for the first quarter.
💳 Personal Income and Outlays (10:00 AM ET):
Includes data on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
🏭 Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Assesses business conditions in the Chicago region, reflecting manufacturing sector health.
📅 Thursday, May 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Reports total spending on construction projects, indicating economic activity in the sector.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Measures the number of new filings for unemployment benefits, reflecting labor market
conditions.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Provides insight into the manufacturing sector's health through a survey of purchasing managers.
📅 Friday, May 2:
👷 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET):
Reports the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET):
Indicates the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking
employment.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Measures the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Market Update - 4/27/2025Solid follow through, breadth has improved, a lot of breakouts this week, but I would be curious how we'll behave as we get closer to the 50dma on the indexes.
Until my market timing model shows a buy signal, I'm not gonna get aggressive, I'm still 50% invested and looking to take profits into strength, rather than entering new positions.
I'm still relatively flat for the last 2 months in my equity curve.
One thing I really need to improve is my risk management, especially around EPs. I need to reduce outsized losses (1% of my account) of which I had even 2 this month so far. And in general I am not that good with EPs, I need to study them closer.
Spy Squeeze Theory $571The Liquidity Mirage: SPY’s $550 Trap?
SPY closed the day pressing into the $547–$550 zone — a major inflection level. Afterhours strength has sparked interest, but beneath the surface, this may be setting up for a high-stakes trap.
AlphaPulse Thesis:
If SPY opens or pushes above $550, our models signal one of the ugliest liquidity grabs in recent months. The move could extend to $561, even possibly squeezing to $571. But the velocity and volume behavior at these levels screams manipulated exit ramp.
Trade Expectation:
After this fake breakout move, we anticipate a sharp retrace targeting the $525–$520 zone, where true value buyers may re-emerge.
Indicators Flashing Red:
Volume Surge Divergence
MACD Overextension
Z-Score Volatility Spike
Options Flow: Put Walls Below $530
Watchlist Trigger Level:
Short Bias: Above $550
Breakdown Confirmed: Below $543
Target: $522 initial, $520 extended
Strategy Summary:
This is a classic liquidity run — institutions baiting breakouts to dump heavy bags. Be nimble, stay informed, and let JoeWtrades guide your precision.
— JoeWtrades, AlphaPulse Terminal™
SPY Watchlist 4/28 - 5/2The Goal here is to analyze how price will react. We are already heading into the gap meaning our targets are around $563.19.
We must always wait for a confirmation candle when approaching and heading into higher highs from the previous dump
what goes down quick must come up quicker, when it comes to ETFs. This is what Majority of the working class have their 401ks.
Rhythm of the Great BearUndead Bear Captain's Log
April 27, 2025
Will make one final attempt to chart and navigate the murky waters of the Great Bear.
XLF may be a good candidate with still distinct waves, like XRT, XLRE and XHB.
All other sectors, especially SPY are skewed by tech, same-day options and basically unchartable.
I call this map the rhythm of the great bear. It is for my own use, as I like attuning to the waves of the great ocean, the beat of music or the rise and fall of civilizations.
XBI is the nascent child, XLK the moody teen, SPY the resilient adult and DJI the steady grandparent. In markets, I think it is the child that shows the way to growth and decline. XBI shows signs of the Great Bear, having stumbled through an initial decline in 2023 and crawled its way through 2 years of recovery, the so called running flat correction.
This market has thrived through over a decade of MMT, pummeled briefly by covid, only to receive the greatest injection of digital print since all of history. The little people are suffering the effects of inflation everywhere. Wages have barely budged since 20 years ago, yet housing prices have quadupled, automobiles and everything else Mom & Dad can think of have at least doubled. People are literally crumbling toward the lowest rung of Maslow's hierachy, able only to take care of basic needs.
Beneath the streets of folks struggling to survive, we can uncover that the housing market existing home sales is basically at its lowest point since the GFC and banks are still struggling to manage the bond sell-off over the last 5 years.
On top of this decade of MMT mess, the half sane President has declared cold war on basically the entire world. He points the finger of USA's problems at everyone exept USA and magically believes USA can somehow snap factories and skilled workers into existence out of thin air to make America great again without its friends, partners (and slaves). Yet 160 year East-West civilization cycles say otherwise. In fact it points to power eventually returning to the Eastern world.
The sudden viscious market decline followed by Trump backpedalling and market rebound are strong signs of an initial wave 1, wave 2. It can wake up the bear. It can thunder the quake. It can bring on the tsunami where 15-25 such waves can arrive at an unimaginable velocity.
When such waves arrive, what is any man, woman, child to do? Who can ride such waves without a chart? The waters will flip ships, smash hulls, rip entire masts off of galleons.
Yet, with a proper chart, one could ride it like a pirate and secure the ONE PIECE.
Arr, arr, I sail into the storm, full of courage, a wee bit of wit, and an insane amount of folly!!!
Arr, arr, this be the end of the captain's log.
SMH watch $212.82 above 209.43 below: Proven zone to form Trend SMH showing the recovery process of the chip sector.
Now testing a well proven zone defined by major fibs.
Golden Genesis fib at $209.43 and Covid fib at $212.82.
Look for a Break-and-Retest a Rejection.
If rejected, look for support at $191.23/85
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QQQ: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell QQQ.
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