$SPY Mega Mega Phone patternLooking to see what happens in the next 18 months... Trading the market in front of me and not this one I imagine haha, however curious to see how it plays out.
ETF market
SPY nears pivotMarket drop will begin to form temporary bottom, to start final leg up to complete ending diagonal 5, Then back down for a larger Cycle wave 4, then up. So we are officially in 4-5. 4-5, ending diagonal land.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.28.2025 🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 PCE Inflation Data Release 📈: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, is set to be released. Economists predict a 0.3% rise in January and a 2.5% year-over-year growth. This data will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇺🇸🛒 Consumer Spending Trends 🛒: Personal income and spending data for January will be released, offering a glimpse into consumer behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.1% rise in personal spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Friday, Feb 28:
💰 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💰: Reports on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE Price Index for January.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity, providing insights into the real estate market's health.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$KOLD in a selling climax? Sometimes trend ends in a selling climax, meaning on a relative huge volumes. To my opinion it is clear only when the trading tool is rebounded later. So now, just a question mark ❓️
No investment or any other advice is here.
CONI/USD – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!📈 🚀
🔹 Asset: CONI (GraniteShares 1x Short COIN Daily ETF)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Breakout Trade
📌 Trade Plan (Long Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Above $13.30 (Breakout Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $12.90 (Break of Support & Trendline)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
📌 TP1: $13.63 (Resistance Breakout)
📌 TP2: $14.12 (Final Target – Extended Bullish Move)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation
📈 Risk (SL Distance): $13.30 - $12.90 = $0.40 risk per share
📈 Reward to TP1: $13.63 - $13.30 = $0.33 (1:0.83 R/R)
📈 Reward to TP2: $14.12 - $13.30 = $0.82 (1:2.05 R/R)
🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy
📌 Ascending Trendline Support: Price holding above trendline, indicating bullish momentum.
📌 Resistance Breakout: A breakout above $13.30 confirms buyer strength.
📌 Breakout Confirmation: A strong bullish candle closing above $13.30 with increased volume will validate the setup.
📌 Momentum Shift Expected: Sustained strength above $13.30 opens potential for $13.63 (TP1) and $14.12 (TP2).
📊 Key Support & Resistance Levels
🟢 $12.90 – Key Support / Stop-Loss Level
🟡 $13.30 – Entry / Breakout Level
🔴 $13.63 – First Target / TP1
🔴 $14.12 – Final Target / TP2
📉 Trade Execution & Risk Management
📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure strong buying volume above $13.30 before entering.
📈 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to entry ($13.30) after TP1 ($13.63) is hit.
💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy:
✔ Take 50% profits at TP1 ($13.63), let the rest run to TP2 ($14.12).
✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($13.30) after TP1 is reached.
⚠️ Breakout Failure Risk
❌ If price rejects $13.30 and falls below trendline ($12.90), exit early to minimize risk.
❌ Wait for a strong bullish candle close above $13.30 before entering aggressively.
🚀 Final Thoughts
✔ Bullish Setup – A breakout above $13.30 confirms strength.
✔ Momentum Shift Possible – Watch for volume confirmation.
✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:0.83 (TP1) & 1:2.05 (TP2).
💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀🏆
🔗 #StockTrading #CONI #BreakoutTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #MomentumStocks #ProfittoPath #TradingView #StockMarket #SwingTrading #RiskManagement #ChartAnalysis 📈🚀
$SPY: Big picture on three time framesThe AMEX:SPY sell-off this week might be scary, and here we want to go back to the old-fashioned three-time frame concept. It works as a good road navigation. Additionally, I added the data from www.aaii.com to show how bearish sentiment prevails now to give us a short-term hope. The bearish sentiment at its extreme zone (twice higher vs average) gives a clue that the local bottom is near, and not acting as a trading signal
On the charts, we see AMEX:SPY on a monthly, weekly, and daily basis.
More noise is on a daily basis, so I want to keep an eye on the weeklies to help choose the strategy, even for intraday trading. A monthly time frame helps to add gears of consciousness (ATH, 3 bar swing formed).
Blue lines form the channel, which is the Keltner Channel. It shows the tunnel of extremes as well. This means that if we reach the lower band, we may dance there for a while, and then it will bounce.
Hypothetically, if we enter the bearish market, we need to see the lower low and the lower highs at least on the weeklies. For me it will tell that all bounces will be shorter (~ Fib. 0.382) and sharper, and I will adjust my expectations.
Coming back to the current situation on weeklies, I see we are on a bullish trend. On dailies, obviously in a downtrend and near its local bottom. We closed the old gap, so the next potential magnet is ~575-ish support. To confirm a bounce start we want to see at least 3 bar reversal, a ka lower low formed and follow through. The sentiment brightness might be sticky, so no promises.
Stay profitable!
Cheers!
IS THE BULL RUN OVER? DID $SPY REACH ITS MARKET TOP? (2.27.2025)In this video, we look over the possibility of spy topping out and what's next
VTI Long soon but not for longVTI is approaching a point to bounce ether starting Friday or Monday. Lets see what happens
#SPYSPY is currently doing a retracement
If we hold above 595 this week we'll start seeing a bounce and still touch that long term goal of $617 area
But if we dont hold that level of 595 this week.
We can keep dropping all the way to 580 area
TLT Is Yelling at UsYou typically see a migration to TLT when people are looking for a safe haven from troubled markets
I posted about TLT previously and thought we were about to see a rush to the trade because of potential market weakness
Well as we know this Bull market continued to show legs and subsequently TLT has been grounded on the launching pad
The market is yet again showing classic signs of topping
Are we saying that the market is about to crash? NO..not yet
What we are saying is that liquidity is leaving the equities markets in droves and TLT will most likely be a place where that liquidity finds a home
So pay close attention to TLT over the next 6 months because its going to tell you everything you need to know about this bull market
Short term top Looking for retracement into the imbalance. Price have broken out on a lower volume, which means bull trap. Enjoy.
QQQ in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in buying zone at bottom of channels
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band
Entry at $502
Target is upper channel around $540
SPY in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in buying zone at bottom of channels
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band
Entry at $586
Target is upper channel around $612
SPY FractalJust publishing this here to see if this SPY Fractal actually plays out.
Purely shits n giggles.
SPY: Still A Good Buy for 2025The SPX500 (SPY) here on the chart has fallen about 4.46% for the year 2025. Already a good retracement for 2025.
The price at 587.36 (daily chart) is in a window's range of potential support after hitting that 612 weekly/monthly target of resistance at the top.
Tentative Projection for 2025: 680
Daily:
Weekly:
SPY Possible Sell SPY is currently still inside the ascending channel but had a change of character on daily time frame. A sell entry is possible once the price test the resistance level and mitigate OB .
Good LUck
Opening (IRA): TNA April 17th 29 Covered Call... for a 28.28 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 28.28/share
Max Profit: .72
ROC at Max: 2.55%
50% Max: .36
ROC at 50% Max: 1.28%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, roll out short call in the event my take profit is not hit.
2/27/25 - $qqq - bottom.2/27/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ
bottom.
everyone thinks it's the beginning of the end
i'm finally going long w/ leverage ST stuff
this was the NVDA leverage flush we were looking for post EPS (see last QQQ note)
V
Opening (IRA): SOXL May 16th 17 Covered Call... for a 15.68 debit.
Comments: Laddering out a smidge here, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 15.68
Max Profit: 1.32
ROC at Max: 8.42%
50% Max: .66
ROC at 50% Max: 4.21%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
SOXX 3d, 1H 2025NASDAQ:SOXX is painting what I think is a topping pattern. I am expecting this to pull a similar move to AMEX:ARKK back in Q4 2021.
If this plays out how I see playing out, I could see this revisiting the $180 area in the next 4-5 months.
For reference:
$QQQ Getting Over Sold?NASDAQ:QQQ I am stalking a bounce on the Q’s. From an intraday high (all time high) to an intraday low on this chart is about 6.2%. I would expect at least a dead cat bounce in the short term, but the market may not deliver for me. Having said that, I have an alert set on this 30-minute chart on the Downtrend line. “If” that triggers, I will go to a 5- or 10-minute chart to see if there is a good risk reward entry. And if I take the trade, it will be meant to be a day trade (of which I am not a fan) but it could turn to a swing trade “if” it gives me at least a 2% cushion.
I know I have a lot of "ifs" on this one, but isn't that the way it is?
I had posted another chart on the NASDAQ:QQQ index with a link below. I had said in that one that a pullback to the 510 “area” would not negate the longer-term uptrend. But one must be open to all outcomes.
IWM BUY ZONEMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in Green buying zone
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under bottom of Bollinger Band
I'm buying in this green zone, again if price hits $212 near the yellow zone or red line. Will sell and/or short when price reaches green zone overheard around $226.
