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QQQ: Bearish Reversal Likely — Weak Buyer Conviction at Key ResiQQQ may be setting up for a bearish reversal, as several technical confluences suggest the recent rally is losing steam. Despite a short-term bounce, price is approaching a critical decision zone, and buyers appear to lack conviction. 🔺 1. Price Testing Upper Boundary of Descending Channel QQQ has rallied into the upper boundary of the descending channel (yellow lines) that’s been in place since late December. This often acts as resistance—and the price has yet to break above it with strength. 🔵 2. Hitting the Edge of Rising Regression Channel The current price is tagging the upper edge of the blue rising regression channel, an area that has previously triggered sell-offs. Unless there’s a decisive breakout, this could mark a local top. 📉 3. Volume Divergence – Weak Buyer Interest Despite the recent rally attempt, volume is declining, showing clear divergence. This is a warning sign: while price moves up, momentum is fading, and buyers don’t appear to be stepping in strongly. It’s often a precursor to a reversal. 🟩 4. Lower Boundary of Rising Channel Still Intact... For Now Price remains near the long-term rising channel’s lower support, but failure to hold this level could trigger accelerated downside. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: 🔻 Resistance 490.13 – 494.67: This zone is packed with prior support-turned-resistance and coincides with the descending and regression channel boundaries. A rejection here would confirm the bearish thesis. 499.44: A psychological and historical resistance level. Bears would likely pile in if price fails here again. 🔺 Support 488.15: Immediate minor support. Weak defense here could quickly lead to further selling. 477.59: Next key level below current price. If breached, it could validate a more extended correction. 🧠 Summary: QQQ is at a technical crossroads, with several overlapping resistance levels and a clear lack of buying volume. Until buyers show conviction above 494–495, the setup favors a bearish reversal from current levels. 🔔 Watch for a rejection around 490–495 with increasing sell volume for confirmation. 💬 What’s your outlook? Do you see further downside or a breakout brewing?
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by brownian
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 28, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Core PCE Inflation Data Release: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February is set to be released. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with previous figures. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this data could influence monetary policy decisions.​ 🇺🇸🛍️ Consumer Spending and Income Reports: February's personal income and spending reports are due, with forecasts indicating a 0.4% rise in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending. These figures will provide insights into consumer behavior and economic momentum.​ 🇺🇸🏠 Pending Home Sales Data: The Pending Home Sales Index for February is scheduled for release, with expectations of a 2.0% increase, following a 1.0% rise in January. This index offers a forward-looking perspective on housing market activity.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, March 28: 💵 Personal Income (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.4%​ Previous: +0.9% Measures the change in income received from all sources by consumers.​ 🛍️ Personal Spending (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.5%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Tracks the change in the value of spending by consumers.​ 📈 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month; +2.5% year-over-year​ Reflects changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.​ 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: +2.0%​ Previous: +1.0%​ Indicates the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$MSOS long term buy hereAMEX:MSOS hit my long term downside target yesterday of $2.46 and I entered a starter position down there. It's up 9% today. There is still the possibility that we get a final capitulation move from here down to $1.55 or so, and if we get it, I'll add a much heavier position. But basically from here, I think we've bottomed long term and should see a very healthy bull market start which can take us to $29 as a first target and then potentially much higher in the future. I think this is at least a 10X from a long term hold perspective and potentially much more.
AMEX:MSOSLong
by benjihyam
GLD long to $288 & watch 4/11I had asked about GLD earlier this week & asked my dowsing (that's how I get my info) where would be a next swing low to buy? The answer was $276. We hit this morning & it's bouncing nicely. I have a target in the $288-89 area pretty consistently - as in, I got the number in my prior reading and again this morning. There's also a mention a couple times that the date around April 11th is going to be important. It may be that this is the exit date for this position. I will update as we get closer to that date as there could be a subsequent short. That's it. We'll see.
AMEX:GLDLong
by JenRz
2
MSTU Long term retiring ideaThe MSTU ETF offers double exposition to the ticker IG:NASDAQ MSTR, now called Strategy, and this year many call a greater bull run on Crypto assets. I have done myself a mathematical model which gave me the conclusion similar to what Michael Saylor thinks: I think I'm going to retire on the MSTU ETF, considering it 0.35 of my Portfolio and adding into it. For the short term, consider buying on a strong support using an ATR (Average True Range) Indicator which tells you where to buy, and considering the support on a high historical trading activity with Market Profile terminology. Not bad for doing DCA at the swing lows formed. Not financial advice!
CBOE:MSTULong
by TheSnickers12
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-27-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will continue to melt downward (possibly attempting to fill the Gap from March 24). I strongly believe the SPY/QQQ are completing the "rolling top" pattern I suggested would happen near or after the March 21-24 TOP pattern my deeper cycle research suggested was likely. At this point, things are just starting to line up for a broader market decline while the current EPP pattern plays out as a Breakdown of the EPP Flagging formation (moving into consolidation). Gold and Silver are RIPPING higher. Yes, I do expect a little bit of volatility near these recent highs. But, I also expect metals to continue to rally higher from these levels over the next 10-15+ days. Watch the video. Bitcoin is stalling/topping - just as I suggested it would months ago. Now we see how the market move into this new trending phase and how far this current trend will drive price trends. I believe the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin will all continue to move downward while Gold/Silver move (RIP) higher on this breakaway move. This is a PERFECT trader's market. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
Two tempting short setups — but one is hiding real dangerWhich pair would you short? We’re looking at JCPB/BAB and AGG/GTO , both showing positive deviation and riding the upper Bollinger Band. At first glance, both look ripe for a short… but dig deeper, and you'll see very different stories. 🔹 JCPB/BAB Chart: Low ADX, balanced DI+ / DI− → classic setup for a mean-reversion short. But the last daily candle is a strong bullish bar — big, green, and decisive. This could be the start of a breakout , and shorting into fresh upside momentum is dangerous. Looks neutral — but hides bullish potential. 🔸 AGG/GTO Chart: Clear uptrend: DI+ dominates, price marching upward. Also touching upper Bollinger Band, so yes — shorting here is fighting the trend. But at least the risk is obvious , and you can frame the trade accordingly. Transparent trend = measurable risk. 🧠 Bottom line: JCPB/BAB may seem safer — but that green candle changes everything. AGG/GTO is clearly trending — risky to short, but less deceptive. 👇 So, if you had to short one of these — which would it be? Drop your take below. Let’s hear your reasoning.
AMEX:AGG
by YoavShachak
SPY Hanging on Mid-Range Support – Will It Rebound or Flush?⚠️ Technical Analysis (TA) – Intraday View Current Price: ~$567.56 * SPY recently experienced a CHoCH followed by BOS, but now formed a new CHoCH → bearish shift in structure. * Price is testing a minor demand zone between 566–567, holding just above the larger support base at 560–555. * Volume increased on recent sell candles, showing seller control — but Stoch RSI signals nearing exhaustion. Indicators: * MACD: Bearish crossover – but histogram showing potential slowing of momentum. * Stoch RSI: Deeply oversold and starting to turn up – signals possible bounce/retracement coming. 🔐 Key Levels Support Zones: * 566–567 → Short-term demand / micro CHoCH * 560 → Highest negative GEX zone – PUT support * 555–550 → Strong liquidity zone & 2nd PUT Wall Resistance Zones: * 572.5 → HVL zone and broken structure * 580 → Gamma wall zone, strong CALL resistance * 590–600 → Extended resistance levels for swings 🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade Pro) * GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔵🔴 — Bearish skew, with a weak neutral pocket * IVR: 26.4 → Volatility low, but near option seller zone * IVx avg: 20.7 * PUT$%: 53.8% — Strong bearish hedging flow * CALL Resistance: 580 → gamma ceiling * PUT Wall: * 560 → Highest negative NetGEX (dealer support) * 555 & 550 → backup defense zones * HVL: 572.5 → key flip level 📌 Current setup shows dealers are heavily short gamma below 572.5, causing negative delta pressure. 🛠️ Trade Setups 📈 Bullish Setup – Bounce from 566–567 * If SPY holds and reclaims 570 with strong bid, a move toward HVL possible * Entry: Break and hold above 570 * Target 1: 572.5 * Target 2: 578 * Stop-Loss: Below 565 * Options Play: * Buy Apr 3 $575 Calls * OR Call Debit Spread: Buy $570 / Sell $580 📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown Below 565 * Confirmed lower high and break of demand → opens trapdoor * Entry: Below 565 with momentum * Target 1: 560 * Target 2: 555 * Target 3: 550 * Stop-Loss: Above 570 * Options Play: * Buy Apr 3 $560 Puts * OR Put Spread: Buy $565 / Sell $555 🧭 Final Outlook * Bias: Bearish → unless 572.5 HVL is reclaimed. * SPY is caught between strong PUT support at 560 and heavy gamma ceiling at 580. * If market sentiment worsens or macro triggers hit, 555 is the magnet zone. * If buyers step in and hold 566+, bounce setups are likely — but it must reclaim HVL for any strength. 📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
1
Massive Rising wedge 4hr chartMassive rising wedge on 4hr chart!! Been tracking this the last couple weeks. It’s been respecting the trend lines for the this pattern. I believe this is either last leg down in the pattern or one more leg up before it completes the pattern and drops. Target would be 550-560 next week and then 540-550 the following week. With April 2nd with tariffs being finalized we could see this move happen between now and then. If this is the last leg down before it completes the pattern and drops more and breaks the bottom trend line it will happen by either Friday or Monday. If it does leg up it will most definitely be April 2nd when it breaks through bottom trend line. Let’s see how this plays out but for those saying that we are not in a bear market and the bottom was back 552 then your not paying attention. I feel like the bottom could one of 3 targets - $490-20% drop, $430-20% drop, $307-50% drop. Now this all depends on Senior Cheeto. I am thinking 20%or 30% is ideal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Stockdiddler24
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 27, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸🚗 Auto Tariffs Announced: President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the U.S., effective April 2. This move is expected to impact the automotive industry and could influence market sentiment. 🇬🇧📉 UK Inflation Falls: UK inflation has decreased to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January, raising speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in May. This development may have implications for global markets. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, March 27: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 226,000​ Previous: 223,000​ Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.​ 📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Revision (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth​ Previous: 2.3%​ Provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.​ 🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 1.0%​ Previous: -4.6%​ Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Toast me or Roast me - I'm still learning & practicing charting I was looking at descending scallops and some of their features via thepatternsite.com What is valid or invalid about this charting here?? I have the high peak marked from the ATH that topped the uptrend on AMEX:SPY and the most recent upward breakout prior to trending back down on the 1HR as of yesterday. I know I will only be able to confirm in hindsight but is there good reason here for me to say we have the makings of a long-er term descending scallop in play here? Thanks to all. I enjoy reading your opinions and discussions on the daily.
AMEX:SPY
by ExtraGuacAM
1
Spy What's up guys? Here's a update .. I'll cover NYA,Qqq,IWM,XLk,XLF Here's NYA Notice the price action above the yellow line? That's Wyckoff distribution. Yesterday we retest that prior support.. the next leg down on this should start. For more information just research Wyckoff distribution! XLF (Banks) Exact same chart as NYA.. Wyckoff retest... Pain incoming XLK This is the most important chart you will see on this post! XLK is the biggest sector on the SPY! If XLK goes down so will the spy! Daily chart is a major rising wedge.. 4hour chart showing a bear flag That same bear flag is showing on SPY and Qqq IWM Bear flag inside of bear channel To sum it up if Qqq breaks below 477 tomorrow or Friday , DO NOT CATCH THE KNIFE!!!!! We will most likely make new lows for March.. Core PCE tomorrow but don't forget about end of quarter rebalancing on Friday.. the last hour of the market WILL see some wild moves .. Next week is a black out period with no earnings and it is the week of Tariffs. I think if they do flush they will try to get most of the selling done before earnings season kicks off April 7th. Sorry if this is a little rushed but I've been busy.. I'll try to update this more tomorrow.. Lastly Vix I thought they would flush this back to 14.73 but when QQQ rejected off it's 200ma , Vix bounced off it's 200ma (No coincidence).. unless PCE sends this below 17.00 tomorrow we are headed back to 23.00 If you need a bigger picture just look at my previous spy post But let me break this down to you simple. This spy, you see the yellow area I am highlighting? THAT IS WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION! NOW GO TO YOUR WEEKLY CHART , ZOOM OUT AND LOOK AT THE STRUCTURE OF TVC:DJI NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL They are all showing distribution , some 6months worth of it.. So what happens when distribution support is broken as It was on SPY at 580? What happens next is a Reset! It is exactly what happened in 2022...
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
15