August 6th Lesson about emotionsToday I lost $150 with two emotional trades. I am better than that and I know what I did wrong. 04:20by carsonusa53
Russell 2000 fractal points to 40-60% dropRussell 2000 currently creating fractal. Points to possible 40-60% downside. This fractal creates: - A top - A bear flag - A failed break to the upside - A large break down after the failed break up This fractal occurred in 2008 and 2020. Both instances of recessionary bear markets. This could play out similarly if we get a recession. Price target is around 95 -100. Shortby johnfzoidberg3
QQQQ chartif the current pattern (a running away base) formation would finish at ma200 then a final wave 5 to new high then correct to ma400 or ma800 by gudian680
VXX watchHere's a 24hr ext VXX chart with the Cumulative Volume Delta indicator. The Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index was introduced by Cboe Global Markets, Incorporated in 1993. Simply referred to as 'the VIX', it is a market index that measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) – the core index for U.S. equities. In real-time, it represents the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. VXX spiked to a high of 91 on Monday 8/5/24 with today's 8/6/24 low of 62. In the past few weeks there's been domestic political uncertainty, geopolitical risks, recession fears, FOMC continued high rates, Mega cap tech earnings, Jeff Bezos sold 8,645,380 AMZN shares for 200.12 on 6/11/24, Warren Buffet sold 390 million of AAPL shares and the unwinding of the yen-funded carry trade reverberated through global markets. I'm no expert, but it sure feels like the S&P 500 has not bottomed out yet, which means VXX could hit 100 before all of this is over. VXX is used as a tool to hedge your portfolio when there's short term downside risk. Some traders take advantage of the volatility to make a profit on a trade. Since you can't trade options for put protection outside of regular market hours and most people don't have futures accounts, I think VXX shares can be very helpful if there's another downside volatile pre or post market day in the future.by Options3603
Opening (IRA): TQQQ Sept 20th 63 Monied Covered Call... for a 59.60 debit. Comments: High IVR/high IV at 68.7/63.1%. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Additionally, adding at strikes/break evens better than what I've current got on (the August 16th 73 covered calls; break even 70.80). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 59.60 Max Profit: 3.40 ROC at 50% Max: 5.70% 50% Max: 1.70 ROC at 50% Max: 2.85% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll the short call out for duration on side test.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
Opening (IRA): TQQQ August 16th 73 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.80 debit. Comments: High IV at 55%. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against in the August 16th monthly to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I looked at doing something in the 45 DTE wheelhouse, which would be the August 30th expiry, but it was less liquid than the monthly, so opted to go shorter duration, with the plan being to roll out to the September monthly should we get further weakness and/or a test of 73. Otherwise, I'll look to just take profit at my standard 50% max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.80 Max Profit: 2.20 ROC at Max: 3.11% 50% Max: 1.10 ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
SPY Mirroring 2007 12% Correction Pre-GFCThe price action in SPY today mirrors the 12% correction in SPY in July - Oct 2007 pre-GFC market crash. Targeting $495-$500 on SPY as a near-term bottom after a quick pop up to $530-$535 in SPY. Then possibly rebound from $500 back to all time-highs, but if we fall through the floor, then we should see $400 on SPY.by ARX7133313
SPY: Not done dropping just yet.Chart is forming a bear flag with many oscillators pointing to more downsides.by MarkitMaven114
Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic? Understanding the Economic Data Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession. In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time. Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern. Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around. With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves. Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets. Understanding the Market Trends While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound. The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts. The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell. The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk. This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy. Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation. Concluding Thoughts While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.by ingeforberg12
FXI - iShares China Large-Cap ETF... FXI stock is a strong buy due to China's rapid economic growth, diverse portfolio of leading companies, and potential for high returns. Investing in FXI offers exposure to China's expanding market. 9988.HK Alibaba Group Holding Limited 9.72% 0700.HK Tencent Holdings Limited 8.73% 3690.HK Meituan 8.09% 00939 00939 7.08% 01398 01398 4.74% 03988 03988 4.26% 9999.HK NetEase, Inc. 4.00% 1810.HK Xiaomi Corporation 3.77% 9618.HK JD.com, Inc. 3.73% 01211 01211 3.51% FXI stock is a strong buy because while the US and Europe have experienced an incredible bull run, China's market hasn't seen the same gains. This offers a unique opportunity for potential growth and high returns. Longby Maximus200001
TAN - Invesco Solar ETFSimply go long, it's the future! If the USA doesn't want to increase this ETF by 20 or 30 or 40%, the world will end up on its last legs! NVDA won't save the planet! ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 10.11% FSLR First Solar, Inc. 8.64% NXT Nextracker Inc. 7.68% RUN Sunrun Inc. 7.10% 3800.HK GCL Technology Holdings Limited 5.01% 0968.HK Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited 4.45% ECV.DE Encavis AG 4.18% HASI HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. 3.71% SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. 3.47% NEOEN.PA Neoen S.A. 3.35% Longby Maximus200000
ICLN - ISHARES GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY ETF - USD Simply go long, it's the future! If the USA doesn't want to increase this ETF by 20 or 30 or 40%, the world will end up on its last legs! NVDA won't save the planet! ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 7.93% FSLR First Solar, Inc. 7.36% ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. 6.34% IBE.MC Iberdrola, S.A. 6.02% VWS.CO Vestas Wind Systems A/S 5.83% 600900.SS China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. 4.09% EDP.LS EDP, S.A. 4.01% 9502.T Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated 3.81% ORSTED.CO Ørsted A/S 3.74% SUZLON.BO Suzlon Energy Limited 3.17% Longby Maximus200000
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further. Watch this video to learn more. The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP. Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold Long12:39by BradMatheny114
Gap Fill or Reject?The market's tendency is to gap fill, but we can also use the gap areas as potential rejection levels. My approach here is simple, I plan to short the market as we approach and/or reach these gap areas, and I will maintain very tight criteria for my stop loss to avoid getting caught up in a reversal. Shortby jarrodcbaker111
SOXLActivated some SOXL calls for September Loving the first quarter retest and reclaim of yearly open Likely reverts higher towards $40 imo, confluent with d1 200ema, yearly vPOC, etc If starts closing below today's lows I'll exit and look to buy first quarterLongby jhonnybrah8
SPY: End of Wave 4SPY is coming to the end of an ABC correction in Wave 4, which will lead to final Wave 5 at or around 500. Look for a final few sessions of selling into the weekend, then we will get a larger Wave 2 (ABC) to fill the gaps that were created at 530 and 541. by FiboTrader1222252
08/06 SPY ATR Levels and RangeLooking for these ATR levels, volume, price action and technical confluence to make decisions. Seems like its a waiting on your hands kind of day, honestly I think once the Olympics is over and citizens return to their countries, something on a GEO scale may happen, thats my speck on this. Otherwise Harris to drop her VP choice, the debate is still on schedule, the tensions over seas is still building. The only report I see on the table is the 11:00 AM Total Household Debt Q2. Not sure how impactful that will be on things. My overall feeling is neutral at the moment. I like to see what the market does and reacts before making any type of move or decision. ATR on spay is 6.48, again, A larger number than the last 6 months of this year. I suspect and caluculate that due to the massive selloffs that have been taking place all over. SCALP SR2 521.67 SR1 520.83 SPOP 520.00 LAST PRICE 519.16 SBREAK 518.32 SS1 517.49 SS2 516.65 STANDARD R2 527.52 R1 524.30 POP 522.38 LAST PRICE 519.16 BREAK 515.98 S1 513.44 S2 511.75 by TuskenDayTrade1
More Downside for IWM or Is This a Rescue Operation?Let's kick off Tuesday morning by breaking down IWM: First and foremost, on a daily chart, it appears to be in a freefall and this slight recovery is just a bounce along the ride down, complimented by the rising wedge pattern on a 1H chart. I'd like to sit back and say, "well the markets recovering, so IWM should too". However, experience has taught me to trust the chart and not my heart. Keep in mind, the bottom also appears to be near so be cautious. Other thoughts. We did see this ETF take a rip roar towards the upside about 3-4 weeks ago while the rest of the market trailed, so that's no real indication of what could happen in the upcoming days. Conclusion: I'd be looking to day trade this, leaning towards a short-term slide towards the gutter in the region of 197. The sticky note region at the top, around 206.75 - 211.12 would indicate overhead resistance and a good place to lay groundwork. Anyway, I'll be paper trading this out of curiosity. Market is volatile this week. Trade accordingly. by Tsteves4
Japan 2023 is Risk On While Western World Is RIsk OffJapan might offer some interesting plays for risk assets. Getting long in some bullish Japanese stocks might be interesting. Especially if those stocks can catch some other bullish trend unrelated to . What's going on in Japan? Short answer is Central Bank Monetary stimulus... need i say more? ..But wait.... Didn't they recently raise rates to the highest level seen in over a decade in December 2022? Yes, but , Raising the rate cap (to 0.5% which might as well still be 0) is only half.. no a third of the story. BOJ stated in 2/02/2023 statement that they raised the rate cap to better facilitate the continuation of monetary easing AND they will offset the interest rate increase by ramping up the purchase of government bonds. AKA.. the Japan money printer is alive and well and they are hoping investment returns to the Yen and in turn yen assets. Land of the Rising Stocks. Longby SnarkyPuppyUpdated 3
There's A Setup For A BounceFor fun, no idea what I'm doing. Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now futures are up a bit and will open up a bit if it remains like this. Will still be kind of okay looking though, around lower BB. Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds. The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Aug 6. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea. I literally only post when this is set up and the last time was last week! The time before that was Oct 30 23, and I posted the weekend before. Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days? From the low of Aug 6 - I usually say 5% chance of ~+10% by Aug 9 (top yellow circle) 40% chance of +5.5% by Aug 9 (lower yellow circle) 60% chance of +5.5% by Aug 20 (right yellow circle) Really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up as that's ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though). More like if we get a bounce, it goes down again like this it'll be that time. Last week I wasn't very optimistic about it (and it didn't happen anyway). This time it's still pretty high, but QQQ is in sync with SPY which means both can go up together now which is a little something. Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail. If it does bounce, no idea how long it'll last. You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.Longby ABirdOfParadise2
$DIA Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thAMEX:DIA Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th Dang, that is just a beautiful chart. I wish i had time tonight to write more about it because it's a fascinating chart. lots of levels to know going into tomorrow... GLby SPYder_QQQueen_Trading1
$IWM Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thAMEX:IWM Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th 3.01% expected move for tomorrow. ooooh eeee... by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading3
$QQQ Trading Range for Tuesday August 6thNASDAQ:QQQ Trading Range for Tuesday August 6th 2.37% expected move for tomorrow from options. yup. Volatility is back!! 🙌🏼by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading6