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Opening (IRA): TLT May 16th 84 Short Put... for a 1.59 credit. Comments: High IVR; back in range of 52-week lows. Working both ends of the stick in 20 year+ paper with a covered call on one end of the stick, short puts on the other ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 82.41/contract Max Profit: 1.59 ROC at Max: 1.93% 50% Max: .80 ROC at 50% Max: .96% Since I want to potentially pick up additional shares at a lower price, I will run this to expiry or approaching worthless (e.g., .05).
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Spy Road To $500 or $481📉 The Road Below $500? Here's the Case. While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks. Technical Breakdown Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered. Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence. MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift. Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution. SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates. 🧠 Market Sentiment Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity. CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear. Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk. 📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names. Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility. Key Levels to Watch: $507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply). $500 = major psychological & technical level. $491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet. Final Thought: This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path. Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 25, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Procter & Gamble Cuts Outlook Amid Consumer Pullback: P&G shares declined after the company lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing reduced consumer spending due to economic uncertainty and higher tariffs. CFO Andre Schulten noted significant consumer hesitation, linking it to volatility in mortgage rates and declining stock markets affecting retirement savings. ​ 📊 Durable Goods Orders Surge, Core Spending Stagnant: March durable goods orders jumped 9.2%, driven by a spike in aircraft demand. However, core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose only 0.1%, indicating cautious business investment amid ongoing tariff uncertainties. ​ 🏠 Existing Home Sales Decline Sharply: Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March to an annual rate of 4.02 million units, reflecting affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, April 25: 🗣️ Fed Governor Neel Kashkari Speaks (5:00 PM ET): Remarks may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on current economic conditions and monetary policy direction.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
GLDGold has extended slightly passed the 2.618 extension fib and then began to fall back down. It is too early to tell if price has finally topped or not. It is no coincidence though that it started moving lower as the market started moving higher. I believe that any drop in price for gold is only temporary. It will, IMO, begin to move higher again around the time this larger consolidation of the indices completes. Should price start to move higher again, we will need to look towards the 2.786 & 3.0 for points of resistance. However, if a local top is in fact in place, we would then continue lower in an overlapping/choppy fashion. I will update as it warrants.
AMEX:GLD
by TSuth
Potential Future Price Action for BondsA dip of TLT into the high 60's is certainly a possibility, and a prime opportunity for further accumulation. These things come and these things go, do not be surprised and act as if you did not know. The underlying economic indicators are certainly abysmal at this time and place. Pretending otherwise will certainly end in disgrace. Perhaps we see a short term "resolution" to the Chinese trade wars. Only to have something else trigger the eventual downside in markets, leading to bonds as a safe haven along with Federal Government intervention to encourage stabilization
NASDAQ:TLT
by GoodTexture
1
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : EPP Flag Setup CompleteI created this video to highlight the current EPP Flag setup in the SPY/ES. It is my opinion that the market are about ready to ROLL OVER into a downward trend because of this current EPP setup. Once the FLAG forms (in this case a BULLISH FLAG), the next phase is a BREAKDOWN INTO CONSOLIDATION. It is my belief the current FLAG will prompt a breakdown in price - moving into a lower consolidation range. I'm highlighting this EPP pattern to help everyone learn how to use them more efficiently. Get ready. If I'm right, we're going to see a big move downward over the next 2-4+ days. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
32
April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged. The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention. In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke. Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America. As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there. On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings. Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball. TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
QQQ - Your guess is as good as mineMarkets are all over the place. I know ground breaking info. I don't think there is any clear answer to what is next. Even if Trump does reduce tariffs on China, they are still going to be some of the highest in recent history. However, it looks like Trump has flinched and China has the upper hand. That is just likely going to make Trump more erratic since his policies are emotional/ego driven and not strategic. Overall, there are likely some short-term gains to be have as the market likes to always push up when not in an panic sell. For now, the worst of the news is over and the low from the other week is likely going to be the bottom for the near future. I expect stock to continue this up and down until the tariffs work there way through the system and we see the true effect on the economy. We punched above the 20 day SMA yesterday and will likely test it for support today and tomorrow. If it holds, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices test the 200 day. Hard to know what crazy stuff Trump will do over the weekend, so we will have to see. Good luck and enjoy the ride.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Dr_Roboto
1
Spy Road To $500SPY is currently hovering around $533 in the afterhours session. Based on today’s price action and macro sentiment, if we open between $533–$532, we’re eyeing a potential retracement to the $522 zone. This zone aligns with previous demand structure and key VWAP deviation. Bearish Confirmation Triggers: Failure to reclaim $535 in the first 2 hours. Breakdown below $530 + low volume bounce = short trigger. MACD histogram flipping red on the 1H. Target Zone: $522–$520 Stop Loss: Above $535 reclaim Indicators Used: VWAP, MACD, Volume Imbalance, Daily Pivot Zones, Institutional Flow Heatmap. We’re also watching dark pool prints under $529 and the delta shift on order flow—both signaling increasing bearish pressure. If SPY opens flat and ranges for 2 hours → downside bias continues. As always safe Trades
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
2
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Can Be Unfolding A Bullish ImpulseBlackRock's Bitcoin ETF with ticker IBIT made a massive rally in 2024, which can be wave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse. Despite the recent decline at the beginning of 2025, it's still above 42 invalidation level, and as long as it's above that level, it can be wave 4 correction, so we may still see that 5th wave this year. The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis that identifies patterns in market movements. A bullish impulsive wave is one of the most important and common wave structures in an uptrend. It describes how prices typically move in the direction of the main trend. A bullish impulsive wave consists of five waves labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by ew-forecast