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SPY - Taking Some Pain Augghhhh Taking some pain with my short position, but not the first time I have been here. Going to see where we are closer to close of the day or perhaps tomorrow to see if I should close out. 1) I don't want to be short if this market breakout sticks. That could be really painful and I may just have to blow this out and take my loss. 2) I don't want to close out my short if this is just a knee jerk reaction, short covering or firms having to buy stock to cover short calls. So I will just be patient here and see how the day plans out. Updating as I don't want you to think I am hiding over a bad trade. Bad Trades happen, losses happen, I am indifferent to a loss since I stick with my strategy. AND YES THIS IS REAL MONEY NOT LIKE THOSE FAKE GURUS WHO CAN'T EVEN AFFORD A MARGIN ACCOUNT.
AMEX:SPY
by goldbug1
3
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks) Target #1 = $24.85 Target #2 = $26.00 Target #3 = $28.00+ A stop exists below $20.00.
AMEX:HIBSLong
by NicksAnalysis
QQQ Triangle BreakI've been talking about this triangle on QQQ for a while now. Today we finally got the big break above. Stalling at the previous swing high for now. This could end up being a great long if it breaks $485 and retests. To the downside, I'm watching today's open price. I think the range should be about $480-$485 from here. Any breaks above or below should lead to more continuation. Don't need to chase long up here and don't need to short into strength like this. I think it's important to remain patient and wait for the opportunities to present themselves. I don't see longing yesterday and holding overnight as a high probability play, but it would've worked great obviously. However, the best trades come after these sorts of moves when we get retests or fails. Bias should now be long until proven otherwise.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AdvancedPlays
SPY500 $SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024SPY AMEX:SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $552.50 - $575.00 WEAKER BULLISH ZONE (PALE GREEN): $552.50 - $540.50 Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish This was my analysis for the end of the day yesterday, forgot to post it. Price has already rallied fairly well today. The Fed cut rates yesterday 50bps, down from 5.50 to 5.00. Here is what I was looking at as the market became volatile when reacting to the news. Despite the market already quickly moving in favor of the bullish zone, I still think we will reach the top of that zone before any form of reversal or significant pullback. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, AMEX:SPY , fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility,
AMEX:SPYLong
by TonyAiello
The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall. Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
AMEX:IWM
by MetaShackle
SPY: Week of Sept 16Switching it up with a written post this week. It has been a very interesting market lately. Bear market volatility with a continued bull market undertone. The volatility has been stemming, likely, from the onslaught of economic data that has whipsawed the rate cut probabilities as fast as it has whipsawed the price action. As of now, we are back to a fairly optimistic outlook for rate cuts.. at least, a higher probability of rate cuts. If you check on the CME FedWatch site, you will see that it is split down the middle. The probability of a 25 BPS cut is...50%. The probability of a 50 BPS cut is .. 50%. If it wasn't so annoying, it would be funny, I'm sure. Over the course of the last 3 weeks, we have went from 40% probability of a 50 BPS cut, to sub 40, to over 50 and now to 50. And really what it comes down to is what this rate cut actually is, 25 or 50? Market is expecting, from my understanding, a 50 BPS cut. Anything below that will likely cause further selling. However, getting a 50 BPS cut will resume the bull market thesis per norm. My bet is 50 at this point because there are still a tad bit more bullish indications than bearish, i.e. that still unhit high prob on SPX which puts SPY above 570. Anyway, as I am not a fundamental analyst and all of these fundamentals BORE ME TO DEATH, let's get into what math, models and projections say for next week! Outlook for next week is Bullish with a hint of whipsaw. Makes sense given the fact that this is the long anticipated week of the rate cut announcement! We also have came so close yesterday (Friday) to hitting that high prob target on the month of 563, but it just fell short: This target has to be hit, the probability we don't hit it is 3%. The ARIMA outlook for next week is positive and has us uptrending: At day 5, arima has the 95% UCL (95% probability we close below) at 595, and the 95% LCL (95% probability we close above) at 564. That's a HELL of an aggressive forecast for ARIMA, essentially saying we are closing the week next week in the 560s if all goes to plan. I have to say, I am skeptical, but ARIMA has always done me well, so I will be mindful of these levels for sure. Our generic price targets are in the main chart above, but essentially the forecasted high for next week, assuming a bullish thesis, is 569. And since 69 is my favourite number, then I suspect its going to be the one. The forecasted low, assuming bearish, is 552. Both price targets are possible given the outlook of bullish whipsaw, so keep that in mind. And at the end of the day it really does lean into the fundamentals this week. You really need to pay attention to that rate decision. All in all, those are my thoughts. Once market opens I will have a whole slew of new data and probs, so can update if anything is particularly interesting then. Otherwise, safe trades and have a great weekend!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Steversteves
8
SPY After FOMC TA for 9/18/2024FOMC release, a few key points emerge for scalping the next day: Price Levels: Support Zones: 561.38: Strong area of support shown by volume shelf on the volume profile. Buyers have stepped in around this level, making it crucial for intraday scalping. 560.83: Another support level where substantial volume has accumulated. Resistance Levels: 568.68: Marked as the high, which could act as the upper resistance. If SPY moves into a bullish momentum, this would be a key profit-taking zone. Volume Profile: The volume profile shows heavy volume accumulation between 560-561, indicating consolidation around this area. A breakout or breakdown from this level will likely lead to stronger price movement. Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI shows a bullish crossover near oversold conditions, indicating potential upside momentum for tomorrow. This aligns with SPY’s bounce during the FOMC session, suggesting that bulls are gaining some control. FOMC Impact and Direction: After FOMC announcements, SPY tends to be more volatile as traders digest the news. The current chart suggests a neutral to bullish bias heading into tomorrow. SPY bounced back from the 561 support, and if the momentum continues, the next key level to watch would be 565 and then 568.68 for potential breakouts. Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow: Bullish Scenario: Entry: Around 563.50 - 564, which is close to the support/resistance flip area after the FOMC reaction. Use tighter stop losses to limit risk. Exit 1: 565.50 - 566 (quick profit target if resistance holds). Exit 2: 568.68 (if momentum is strong, this level could be tested). Stop-loss: Below 561.50, to protect from downside volatility. Bearish Scenario (if there's a gap down): Entry: Around 561, just below the volume shelf. If SPY breaks below this zone, there could be a sharp sell-off. Exit 1: 560.00, which is a psychological level, aligning with volume gaps. Exit 2: 558.50, a lower level where buyers might step in. Stop-loss: Above 564, to avoid whipsaw losses. Thought Process: Upside Momentum: Given the bullish crossover on the stochastic and the bounce from key support during the FOMC, it’s likely SPY will test 565+ levels, though this could depend on overnight futures and early morning sentiment. Watch for Breakouts/Breakdowns: Pay attention to how SPY reacts around the 561-564 range for clearer direction tomorrow. Use tight stops and react to price action as liquidity from FOMC can cause unexpected spikes or drops.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
Structural Inflation is an Expired SandwichWe are headed for ✨ deflation ✨ so I am bullish on long-duration treasury bonds, gold, and utilities! My rationale for my position is I went to Mac Donalds, and I paid for 6 piece shiggen nuggets 6 months ago and it cost me $8.40 and today I went to the same Mac Donald it only costed me $8.37. PLS NOTE THIS IS NOT SUPLES TO BE FINANCIAL ADIVCE SPEK TO A PROVESIONAL FINANCA ADVIRO LMAO JK JUST BUY THE STUFF IM BUYING** ***note: the treasury market is the largest and most liquid marked in the world and ur buying has no effect on it cuz the primary buyers are banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and the fed (but they are still doing qt rn cuz they are LOSERS) if u enjoyed my content pls smash that like button and subscribe for more updates (this will be the only chart i ever do tho) remember 2 drink water
AMEX:ZROZLong
by zroz
2
Return of Volatility IndexesIt's September 18 2024 10:51pm EST, just another Wednesday. Elections are creeping up and Chinese (HSI) markets are sparking uptrend. Somehow, American volatility indexes are evidently setting up for what appears to be a big return to the upside. Perhaps only a rare few have captured it? Who knows, but the cycles don't lie and neither do the high timeframe supercycles, which imply a reversal is overdue for the volatility indexes, including UVXY (ETF), VXX(ETN), and VIX and their corresponding denominations, just to name a few. In any event, it would be fair to say that after today's close and going forward, these volatility indexes are ready for takeoff. The catalysts are not exactly clear, though. Election alone can't spark them, and if Covid triggered the last significant run, what's next? This, only time will tell, but the 'vola' indexes are nonetheless ready for takeoff.
AMEX:UVXYLong
by JuanLagos94
1
What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts. In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs. Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation). What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice. Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe). Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event. There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders. Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events. Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions). Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly. I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
Opened (IRA): EWW Oct 18th 50 Monied Covered Call... for a 49.02 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The IV isn't fantastic here at 29.8%, but the ROC is kind of what I'm minimally looking for out of this sort of play, so putting on a small position here, particularly since the underlying isn't all that far off its 52-week low. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.02 Max Profit: .98 ROC at Max: 2.0% 50% Max: .49 ROC at 50% max: 1.0% Generally, will look to take profit at 50% max, roll short call for duration and credit on side test.
AMEX:EWWLong
by NaughtyPines
FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds. Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025. The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term. Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
AMEX:IWM
by ChrisPulver