The Nasdaq-100 Since The Crash StartedHere's a line chart of the Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQ since the recent plunge started. It has been relentless selling. While I could tell you all about the 10% correction and all that other jazz, I just want to share this line chart that is essentially going straight down.
I think there are essentially three ways to play this:
1. Do you wait for one capitulation event and then dive in? If so, when does that begin? Start your research process.
2. Does one place a pair trade of sorts for both crazy downside insurance BUT also a quick upside pop. There has not been a rally at all off this crash and as they often observe, the biggest bounces happen after the worst drops.
3. Keep playing the downward trend until otherwise noted. My only concern here is that I keep asking myself: have I missed the down move?
I am watching closely and am wondering when or if a rebound arrives and how to play it. If you have any trade ideas in mind based on this plunge, please comment them below!
ETF market
SPY target 563I do dowsing with a pendulum on stocks and indexes, and am trying to use my intuition more, but I have a hard time sitting still. I did "tune in" for a minute to ask about SPY this morning & got the mental visual of a kind of peak and strong reversal down, and then the number 63 kept flashing at me.
After a few minutes, I realized that 562-63 is my dowsing target from after we hit the high at $613 (which I posted as a target & hit to the dollar).
So, this is to say, this work can be legit & way more than coincidence or luck.
When I had asked about when the 562 area would hit (on 2/23), my answer was 11 days. That date comes in on Thursday.
If price and time can align, results may be sublime. I seriously had to do that, but it is true & ideal if they coalesce. I do have some dates coming for Wednesday as well, so it could be off. But I have strong conviction 562-63 hits & then some kind of bounce, which I will update.
Nasdaq short-term long: Bounce off Trendline, RSI DivergenceIn summary, I think that there is a good odds that Nasdaq will rebound in the short-term because it has bounced off a 2-year trendline and RSI has diverged with price. Using QQQ to gauge volume, I can also see that there is a healthy volume to support a reversal. However, take note that as of now, I will still consider this to be a corrective wave up and not a major trend reversal to the upside. Meaning, the major trend is still down.
URA at historic Support/Resistance level on WeeklyURA has hit the ~23.00 level. Since June 2021, the 23.00 level has provided resistance or support to URA 7 times, as shown by the yellow circles on the Weekly chart.
Entering a Long position with a upside target to another area of previous support and resistance at the ~27.00 area (green rectangle).
Price Stop: $22.00
Time Stop: 3 months.
Indices quant zones, expression can be through nasdaq 100already have slight bull flow
in the event of a flush on market opens,
look for momentum slow and buy around these zones
expression can be through nasdaq 100
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Not as refined as our direct trade setups. More for advanced active traders.
information created and published doesn't constitute investment advice!
NOT financial advice
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 10, 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
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Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-10-25: Gap/BreakawayToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to gap at the open, then move into a breakaway trending phase.
Given the downward price trend currently in place, I believe the markets will gap downward, then possibly attempt to move higher as we pause above the 568 (pre-election) support level.
Ultimately, I see the markets entering a brief pause/sideways price trend (maybe 2 to 5 days) before rolling downward again into the April 14 and May 2 base/bottom patterns.
I see very little support in the markets right now - other than a potential BOUNCE setup this week and into early next week.
I'm not suggesting this bounce will be a very big bullish price reversion. My upper levels are still in the 590 to 600 area for the SPY. But I do believe the markets are likely to try to find support near the 565-575 level.
Gold and silver will move into a Harami Pattern today (sideways consolidation). I don't expect much related to a big move in metals today.
Bitcoin is still consolidating in a very wide range. I expect the next move for Bitcoin to be a bit higher over the next 3-5+ days, so I believe the SPY/QQQ may trend a bit higher for about 3-5 days.
Overall, I suggest traders stay very cautious of volatility this week. Obviously, the trend is still bearish and the current EPP phase setups suggests we are consolidating into a sideways channel before moving downward seeking the Ultimate Low patterns.
Therefore, any bounce/pause in price will be very short-lived.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
IBIT Ishares Bitcoin trust 24hr potterboxesIBIT Ishares Bitcoin trust 24hr potterboxes. IBIT has bounced off of the floor of the box $45.30 and also the 200 day moving average. Its also above the 50 percent line or cost basis of the smaller box.$48.70 If it stays above this line it will likely continue up according to the parameters of the potterboxes. but since its below the 50 percent line of the bigger box $53.31 it will most likely stay uner the 50 percent line or cost basis of the bigger box. It needs to get above the 100 day moving average and start to climb. we never really know what is going to happen .but these boxes give you a since of where the support and resistence are more visible. so you can make a informed decision about buying or selling. So lets keep a eye on it. we will visit it later on down the road and see what happens. Happy trading.
$VOO going down ?As you know the stock market and the cryptocurrency market correlates together, so it wouldnโt be wrong to look for a bear perspective because in the cryptocurrency market, we can currently see BTC trending down on the monthly. So if Bitcoin goes down the stock market will also go down so this is my Beer perspective on VOO . Tell me what you guys think below in the comments.
SPY at a Critical Level! Will the Reversal Zone Hold?Market Structure Overview:
* SPY is currently testing a Reversal Zone, trading within a descending wedge pattern.
* Support: 570-572 zone aligned with the lower trendline.
* Resistance: 578.28, followed by 595 if bullish momentum sustains.
Supply & Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone: 565-570 is showing some buyer interest.
* Reversal Zone: Price action is rejecting from the trendline, indicating a potential short-term bounce.
Order Blocks & Key Levels:
* 572.54 โ 574.71 acting as a consolidation zone before a decisive move.
* If the price clears 578-580, momentum could push toward 595.
Indicator Analysis:
* MACD: Flat momentum but attempting a bullish crossover.
* Stochastic RSI: Bouncing from the lower region, indicating a possible reversal attempt.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis:
* Put Wall at 565 & 560: High negative gamma suggests strong put positioning.
* Call Resistance at 610-620: Major resistance where calls start building pressure.
* GEX Indicator: PUTs are at 110.1%โindicating downside hedging is still strong.
Scenarios to Watch:
1. Bullish Scenario: If SPY holds above 572-574, we could see a push toward 578 and then 595.
2. Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 570 may trigger a flush toward 565, where the next strong put wall is positioned.
Actionable Trade Setup:
* Bullish Entry: Above 574.90 โ Target: 578 / 595.
* Bearish Entry: Below 572.50 โ Target: 570 / 565.
* Stop-Loss: ยฑ2 points from entry.
Conclusion:
SPY is at a key decision point within a reversal zone, and price action near 574-578 will dictate the next leg. If bullish volume increases, we could see a run toward 595, but failure to hold 572 might result in further downside.
๐ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly. ๐
QQQ at a Critical Level! Key Trade Setups for This Week ๐Market Structure & Price Action
* QQQ has bounced from a key reversal zone, signaling early bullish strength.
* The price recently broke a descending trendline, suggesting a potential short-term trend reversal.
* Resistance at $513.29 aligns with previous rejection levels, making it a key target.
* A break above $513 could open the path toward $530-$535 resistance.
Support & Resistance Levels
* Immediate Resistance: $491.81 (current rejection point)
* Major Resistance Zone: $510 - $513 (historical resistance)
* Support Levels: $486, $480 (highest negative GEX / put support)
* Breakout Target: $530, $535 (GEX Call Walls)
GEX & Options Flow Insights
* IV Rank: 49, suggesting moderate implied volatility.
* Options Flow:
* Calls: 12.13% at $510 (2nd Call Wall)
* Puts: -78.42% at $485 (2nd Put Wall)
* High Volatility Level (HVL): $513, indicating a crucial pivot level.
Indicators Overview
* MACD: Showing signs of bullish momentum with a potential crossover.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold and turning up, suggesting a rebound is in play.
Trade Scenarios
Bullish Setup (Breakout Play)
* Entry: Above $492
* Target 1: $510
* Target 2: $530
* Stop Loss: Below $486
* Confirmation: High volume breakout above $491.81
Bearish Setup (Rejection Play)
* Entry: Below $486
* Target 1: $480
* Target 2: $475
* Stop Loss: Above $492
Conclusion
QQQ is approaching a key decision zone. If buyers can push above $491.81, we could see a strong rally toward $510+. However, failure to break above this level could result in another rejection back to $480-$475.
๐ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 10โ14, 2025 ๐ฎ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐จ๐ณ๐ China's Retaliatory Tariffs ๐: In response to U.S. tariffs, China has imposed up to 15% tariffs on U.S. products, including cotton, chicken, corn, and soybeans. This escalation raises concerns about a potential global trade war, which could negatively impact U.S. exporters and broader market sentiment.
๐ช๐บ๐ถ European Fiscal Expansion ๐ถ: Germany has announced significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, marking a shift in fiscal policy. This move may stimulate European economic growth, potentially affecting U.S. markets through interconnected global trade and investment channels.
๐ Key Data Releases ๐:
๐
Wednesday, March 12:
๐ Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) ๐:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation.
Forecast: +0.2% month-over-monthโ
Previous: +0.3% month-over-monthโ
๐
Thursday, March 13:
๐ญ Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) ๐ญ:The PPI reflects the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends.
Forecast: +0.1% month-over-monthโ
Previous: +0.2% month-over-monthโ
๐
Friday, March 14:
๐ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) ๐:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment.
Forecast: 95.0โ
Previous: 96.4โ
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ ๏ธโ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$TLT - expecting to break above 200DMA on next attemptAs expected, NASDAQ:TLT met with strong resistance and has backfilled the gap. It is most likely to break through the 200-day moving average (200DMA) resistance on the next attempt. Many hedge funds are shorting long-term bonds, which could create a short squeeze scenario.
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.
SPY Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 575.87
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 569.47
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 588.44
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
SPY pair is in the downtrend because previous weekโs candle is red, while the price is evidently falling on the 9H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 593.41 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
โ
LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEASโ
$SPY March 10, 2025AMEX:SPY March 10, 2025
60 Minutes
Last week we managed to hit 565 as projected.
Now we are having LL with oscillator divergence.
Also, we can see in the channel LL 566.63 is a green bar with close near top of bar.
Now from Marcg 4 to 7 AMEX:SPY struggling to cross the mid channel line.
Foe the fall 597.43 to 565.63 a retracement up to 585 is possible.
583 is 50 averages.
On Monday holding 573-573.5 I expect a move towards577 - 581 range.
Due to oscillator divergence, I will not short.
No trade day for me on Monday as long is also above 598 for the moment.
On the other side if 564 is broken my target is 560 which will end the extension move as drawn.
Some consolidation is coming this week which will give us a better picture hopefully by Wednesday.
FAS Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysys 030825 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 147/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.