SQQQ long I had a recent success with a small trade, and i think this going alot higher. what do you think? Beware the splits on proshares etfs, a friend reminded. ty! @Nicklaus68 /cheers! ps i am buying calls alsoLongby SpikeDumont7
Tripple Qs go down from here.From a fractal standpoint we have already entered into a downward trend on the QQQs. Shorting QQQ or longing SQQQ as it approaches $460 might make for a good entry.Shortby TahaBintahir1
$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.Shortby TazmanianTraderUpdated 223
UVIX target $10, but regardless swap for SVIX before Job ReportBiden Administration has cooked the books on every single job print and revised the next period when no one looking. IF there was any monthly print that they would do it, with the past consistency and apparent conduct, suffice to say, they are definitely going to make these numbers look good. This is especially true since they have the fiscal spend full throttle and have shown a "at all cost" approach to staying in power, I would expect a huge reversal from yesterdays bloodbath in the capital markets. If the market sells of inspite of this, that is doubly bad!!! THAT MEANS THEY LOST CONTROL OF THE MARKET NARRATIVE and things can get ugly for markets and Biden (Harris's presumably) reelection campaign (I don't even know how they are still in office really)! Job's print in 1.5hrs!!! be prepared! Whoop Whoop! 🙌 Disclaim: Past is not the future and if you need advise you know what to do, could lose just as much. Don't be foolish, be humble and disciplined and remember your risk management: it takes a 100% gain to break even from a 50% loss, so if your scalping or "day trading" always use a stop. If you don't know her use a condom and always stop to smell the roses its the journey not the destination that makes life interesting. And most importantly: Love Peace & Chicken Grease Whoop Whoop !!! Stay thirsty my friend TGIF Job Payrolls Friday Baby!!!!by CurrencyCapitalUpdated 2
Three Potential outcomes for the S&P 500We are seeing a clear correction in the market that has potential to turn into a full blown bear market due to a number of reasons such as rising unemployment, looming debt crisis, and geopolitical tensions. From my experience and analysis I see 3 possible outcomes in the coming weeks and months for the AMEX:SPY The price starts to recover after another minor red day on August 5th, bouncing off support around 524.60, and will start to normalize back with the long-term bullish trend. A head and shoulders pattern forms on the weekly chart, starting with a move down to 495, retracing back to 524.60, and then forcing a large downward move that stops just short of entering a bear market/ recession at the 200EMA (around the 450 price level), starting a new bull run as it recovers. The events of situation 2 unfold the same way, however, price fails to bounce off the 200EMA, and we enter a full-blown recession, fueled by high unemployment, destabilization of the geopolitical climate, and civil unrest from the results of the US 2024 elections. Two of the three predictions lead to more pain for bulls. Let’s hope situation #1 is what will happen. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and all statements made are for informational purposes formed from of my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.by TheSwiftTrades2
$IWM - Delayed shooting start effect!AMEX:IWM Remember the July 21 post where I mentioned we might check back to the $210 area, and then a week later, I thought the shooting star was invalidated? Well, guess what? It even dropped below $210. It was just delayed by a week. 😂 $200 or below could be a good reload area.by PaperBozz114
Was that it for $IWM? Do we correct before the real run?While I do think that IWM is the place to be over QQQ , I think this run has gotten a little ahead of itself. I noticed something interesting today on the chart, if you look at it on the 6hr or 4hr, you'll noticed we tried to break above resistance on the 9am candle, and rejected hard back below it. This leads me to believe that the next move from here is actually down, not up. If we zoom out, the chart looks extremely similar to how it did before the covid crash. We formed a high, went down and v bottomed up into what looked like a breakout (Feb 2020), but instead formed a double top and then rolled over hard. Now we've pretty much made the same move, we formed a high in 2021, corrected, v bottomed in Oct 2023 and now we're at the exact level where a double top could take place from the high that was formed in Jan 2022 before price broke down. So will we have another covid style crash that brings price back to $150 or lower? TBD, but I have that feeling...Shortby benjihyamUpdated 116
QQQ 5th wave down in wave 3 of A 448/443/ 444.9The chart posted is the QQQ we are now in the late stages of WAVE 3 of WAVE A down . I have labeled the 4 hr pattern for you to see targets and form . I will be taken longs in the 448/444 area for a sharp rally back up in wave 4 of A we should see a last drop in a clean 5 waves down . From this point we will rally in the form of a large ABC rally to form WAVE B the BIG TOP wave B tend to catch most ALL traders wave B also tend to move to a HIGHER HIGH at about 1.236 to 1.382 at most of wave A down . I will post ahs the math unfolds But for the most part we are see in a super cycle TOP forming for the next 1 to 2 years the avg decline has been 34 to 50 % and takes about 2 years I have stated stagflation 2025 .best of trades WAVETIMER by wavetimerUpdated 448
QQQ - KAPLUNK - Trade Update - Covered PUTSell to Open Aug9th 450 Put @ 9.00 +- (2 contracts) Will update later but this is a covered PUT I am not selling naked. In other words this is against my short position. by goldbug14
🔜 20+ Year Treasury Bond Market. Perhaps This Is The End US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities sentiment, with the S&P 500 index halving its year-to-date gains. Indeed stock valuations are looking increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a correction. One such indicator in particular is flashing RED - the relative valuation of stocks versus the debt market. SPX / ICE BofA Corporate Total Return Index In August this year, the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market. The gauge is still holding near those highs, despite the recent pullback in equities. The metric last surged this high in the spring of 2000 — and that was followed by a multi-year meltdown in stocks that saw the S&P 500 crash 50% between March 2000 and October 2002. SPX 50% Decline During 2000-2002 Another indicator that shows the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over government debt, which is considered a safer form of investment. The metric has plunged this year lows unseen in decades, indicating elevated stock valuations. "Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927. In the 6 instances this has occurred, the markets saw a major correction & recession/depression - 1929, 1969, 99/00, 07, 18/19, present," research firm MacroEdge said in a recent post on X (ex-Twitter). The so-called equity risk premium (earnings yield minus bond yield) recently fell to a new cycle low and remains well below historical averages. In other words, the stock market has become more expensive relative to the bond market despite the recent pullback. Meanwhile the main graph (quarterly Div-adjusted chart for NASDAQ:TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) illustrates perhaps right there could the end for U.S. Govt Bond Market decline, with Double top as a further projected/ targeted upside price action. Will all of that bring U.S. stock market to 50% decline like in early 2000s!? Time will show! Editors' picksby PandorraUpdated 4040 1.1 K
8/1/24 - $soxl - for degens only rn- a lil atypical play for me - degens only - many of u have pinged me on AMEX:SOXL in the past. today is WHY i've been buying NASDAQ:NVDA , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:ASML , and a few others. i've notably kept away from many including the biggest POS NASDAQ:ARM which we can partially thank for today's move - so let's consider some lemonade with a dash of black powder - AMEX:SOXL down 21% rn to $35. - does it reverse? idk - should it? idk probably, v technical here dragging mkt - if does reverse... will be today - so you play some IV boost and clear the trade or half of it into close I've bot some 8/2 GETTEX:37C 's for 80c. let's see. gl fam. VLongby VROCKSTARUpdated 6
SPY 531-524 $hello everyone, Hope you're having a good Friday. I expect spy to find support next week in the 531-524 range obviously spy has been selling off greatly due to worsening data not just inflation staying the same. What we know from Wednesday with Powell is Sept. rate cuts might not happen. This week brought a needed correction to the market along with bad earnings with a lot of companies. a lot of people have a consenus that the market goes up and down but it does not always work like that. Worsening data and concerns for our economy's future means fear. With all that bad news being said Spy has key levels in the 531- 524 and should look to hold the market for awhile in this price range. The bearish tone is weakening. AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:NVDA Longby willtradesdaily1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade 8-2 - The Kamala-Crush ContinuesIt's been quite a while since I've seen -3%, -4%, or even -6% on my screens. These are HUGE price swings, and I'm still having trouble identifying why the global markets feel a major crisis has suddenly hit (unless it is all related to Kamala Harris). This update shows you why I believe the US markets must attempt to find support near this 50% pullback range. If we can't find support at the levels I highlight on this video - then all bets are off and we could enter a much deeper price correction. I'm still looking at the data, earnings, and other news. I see nothing that says CRASH. I see US companies preparing for a tough summer - but still making profits. I see the US moving into a hotly contested election. I see consumers still spending (moderately). I just don't see a CRASH event yet. So, I believe this is all a large panic move. More later. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong16:41by BradMatheny6
Bonds about to have a med term counter trend RALLY - TLTMost folks know my view on inflation and yields over a very long term horizon years++ (they are going HIGHER) BUT in the short/med term we could be looking at a RALLY in bonds (lower yields) in the weeks ahead. LONG TLT @ 90.80 with a stop below 88.80 and a target of 100. Reward/Risk 5:1Longby WVS_StockscreenUpdated 10
VXX shortThe opportunity is back! VIX is $27+, and it is up 50%, good time to short AMEX:VXX In @ $59.14 Shortby qyu001111
After a historic bond bear market...Bonds are breaking out of a big base on volume. We had 5 waves down to the October 23 low, now forming a breakout of an inverse head & shoulders base. Now that people have capitulated on hard landing that was popular consensus during 22 and early 23 (contrary indicator) and the consensus is soft landing and AI is going to save us all, is a recession now back on the table?by RobAllenS7
October 23, 2023We had seen this setup before the great surge of October 23, 2023, coinciding with data indicating that the Fed’s plan to curb inflation might be working. In September, we would then expect a rate cut. Technically speaking, we have a FlagLongby AllAboutMoney110
The BTC Critical ZoneBitcoin has been recently struggling after breaking through several crucial support zones. There is a single make it / break it zone I will be watching on the related BITX ETF which results in the overall CC golden pocket from the low of the move to the high pivot. A rejection here may increase probabilities of a further downside drop. A reclaim of the level would give me further confidence on a long trade higher. Lets see how it plays out.by afurs1Updated 3
Opened (IRA): TLT September 20th 89 Monied Covered Calls... for an 87.83/contract debit. Comments: Parking some cap in TLT while I go about "summer things." Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta long put while having built-in short call defense. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 87.83/contract Max Profit: 1.07/contract (ex. divvies); 1.38/contract (with divvies) ROC at Max: 1.22% (ex. divvies)/1.57% (with divvies) 50% Max: .53/contract (ex. divvies) ROC at Max: .61% (ex. divvies); .96% (with divvies) These metrics assume that I'm only able to grab one divvy (i.e., July). It's possible that I'm able to grab July and August or July, August, and September, which will naturally increase the ROC %-age, but will generally money/take/run at 50% max after at least the July divvy drops. And ... you never know ... It's also possible that TLT might not cooperate and move back toward my short call strike and voila, I've got a poo pile on my hands.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 4
08/02 SPY ATR Levels and RangeThere are my lines for the day, yesterday totally blew the levels out of the water, the ATR on the SPY is holding steady, but high due to the downside drips and falls we have been getting. Papa Powell has taken all need for us to go any higher off the table until mid August, my opinion. So anything that happens today in the way of upside could be associated to a new month, new positions being opened and that we are on FAFO Friday with the 0DTE Degen option buyers.... I suspect we are not out of the bleeding yet. Fear&Greed is lower at a 33 midway to falling into Extreme fear. The Geo political and domestic world is on fire, Trump cant keep himself from saying stupid comments and Harris still hasnt gotten her footing yet (my opinion) For SCALP I am looking for quick moves through the SPOP to SR1 maybe see SR2 and breach into the STANDARD ranges at open and then quickly recced past the lower ranges past SBREAK into the S1 and S2 of the STANDARD levels. SR2 536.90 SR1 536.16 SPOP 535.43 LAST PRICE 534.69 SBREAK 533.95 SS1 533.22 SS2 532.48 R2 542.05 R1 539.22 POP 537.52 BREAK 531.89 S1 529.65 S2 528.16 by TuskenDayTrade0
RETROGRADE SPY 8.2 BEAR MONTH Aug / Could be Bull day but definitely BEAR MONTH. You will see I’ve shown what it needs to cross to become bullish. Pre mkt it was clearing a MONTHLY single print zone if it falls below that purple zone again it’s short to 520 zone. Mercury retrograde starts Sunday 4th so choose your trades cautiously and make trade plans days in advance so the retrograde doesn’t fog up your approach. Shortby L_UP_2472
Buy the dip dont trip BITXI see a short squeze a brewing! This is what they wanted 10 year down 3%!!!!!!!Longby CurrencyCapital0
$DIA Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndIn premarket right now, the Dow is at the bottom of the implied move that we set up last weekend, just above 398. We gapped below the up gap from Thursday of last week going into Friday, creating an island top. We gapped down underneath the one-hour 200 moving average, all the way to the bottom of the implied move. The last few times we saw a gap completely to the bottom of the implied move, the momentum followed through in that direction, as observed in SPY and QQQ. Here, however, we are at the bottom of the implied move for the week. It will be interesting to see if we can swing back up and at least get into the gap that has supported us all week. by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading2