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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided. Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well. But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups. Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern). There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure. At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate. This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them. Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend. A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area. In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider. If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well. The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns. Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now. Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now. Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD. I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
EWZ setting up multi-year breakout Brazil boasts a strong investment case compared to an overvalued US market, which is historically trading at depressed multiples. The global scenario is looking positive for emerging market equities, like ewz and small cap brf with slower GDP deceleration, resilient commodity prices, and inflation control. Higher commodity exports are generally positive for Brazil’s currency (BRL) and equities. The technical set up is straight forward, from the 2020 high and low the price is consolidating ready to break above the descending trendline. If the fib retrace holds and the price can move past the high volume node which coincides with the breakout of the trendline around 32 we may see the start of a multi-year advance.
AMEX:EWZLong
by ronin-strat
Value stocks shine bright, amid Growth stocks depressionValue investing is an investment strategy that involves picking stocks that appear to be trading for less than their intrinsic or book value. Value investors actively ferret out stocks they think the stock market is underestimating. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond to a company's long-term fundamentals. The overreaction offers an opportunity to profit by purchasing stocks at discounted prices. Warren Buffett is probably the best-known value investor today, but there are many others, including Benjamin Graham (Buffett's professor and mentor), David Dodd, Charlie Munger (Buffet's business partner), Christopher Browne (another Graham student), and billionaire hedge-fund manager, Seth Klarman. The main represented technical graph is for SPDR S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) that invests in the committee-selected S&P 500 with focus on value stocks. The Index selects stocks from the S&P 500 that exhibit these fundamental value characteristics: (i) book value to price ratio, (ii) earnings to price ratio, and (iii) sales to price ratio. To be included in the index common stocks and REITs must meet certain liquidity criteria and must have a positive as-reported earnings over the most recent four consecutive quarters (measured using the sum of earnings over those quarters) and for the most recent quarter. Top 10 AMEX:SPYV components, incl. weight. 1) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B NYSE:BRK.B 3.97% 2) JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM 2.88% 3) Exxon Mobil Corporation NYSE:XOM 2.43% 4) Johnson & Johnson NYSE:JNJ 1.93% 5) Walmart Inc. NYSE:WMT 1.65% 6) UnitedHealth Group Incorporated NYSE:UNH 1.63% 7) Bank of America Corp NYSE:BAC 1.28% 8) Procter & Gamble Company NYSE:PG 1.21% 9) Chevron Corporation NYSE:CVX 1.16% 10) Costco Wholesale Corporation NASDAQ:COST 1.14% The basic concept behind everyday value investing is straightforward: If you know the true value of something, you can save a lot of money when you buy it. Most folks would agree that whether you buy a new TV on sale, or at full price, you’re getting the same TV with the same screen size and picture quality. Stock prices work in a similar manner, meaning a company’s share price can change even when the company’s valuation has remained the same. This means, strictly speaking, there is no such thing as a true, or intrinsic, value of the stock of a given company. But there are relative values. Value investing developed from a concept by Columbia Business School professors Benjamin Graham and David Dodd in 1934 and was popularized in Graham's 1949 book, "The Intelligent Investor." Just like savvy shoppers would argue that it makes no sense to pay full price for a TV since TVs go on sale several times a year, savvy value investors believe stocks work the same way. Of course, unlike TVs, stocks won't go on sale at predictable times of the year such as Black Friday, and their sale prices won’t be advertised. Value investing is the process of doing detective work to find these secret sales on stocks and buying them at a discount compared to how the market values them. In return for buying and holding these value stocks for the long term, investors can be rewarded handsomely. Intrinsic Value and Value Investing In the stock market, the equivalent of a stock being cheap or discounted is when its shares are undervalued. Value investors hope to profit from shares they perceive to be deeply discounted. Investors use various metrics to attempt to find the valuation or intrinsic value of a stock. Intrinsic value is a combination of using financial analysis, such as studying a company's financial performance, revenue, earnings, cash flow, profit, and fundamental factors. It includes the company's brand, business model, target market, and competitive advantage. Some metrics used to value a company's stock include: Price-to-book ( P/B ), which measures the value of a company's assets and compares them to the stock price. If the price is lower than the value of the assets, the stock is undervalued, assuming the company is not in financial hardship. Price-to-earnings ( P/E ), which shows the company's track record for earnings to determine if the stock price is not reflecting all of the earnings or is undervalued. Free cash flow , which is the cash generated from a company's revenue or operations after the costs of expenditures have been subtracted. Free cash flow is the cash remaining after expenses have been paid, including operating expenses and large purchases called capital expenditures, which is the purchase of assets like equipment or upgrading a manufacturing plant. If a company is generating free cash flow, it'll have money left over to invest in the future of the business, pay off debt, pay dividends or rewards to shareholders, and issue share buybacks. Of course, there are many other metrics used in the analysis, including analyzing debt, equity, sales, and revenue growth. After reviewing these metrics, the value investor can decide to purchase shares if the comparative value—the stock's current price vis-a-vis its company's intrinsic worth—is attractive enough. Fundamental thoughts Were you ready or not, but still US interest rate is at the highest degree over the past decades (basically due geopolitics tensions), while high borrowing cost is inappropriate to internal US macroeconomic conditions (weakening labor market, weakening housing sales etc). This is why growth stock will not pump forever, meaning that no one is at the top over so-called "Mag Seven" hyped stories. At the same time, the main technical graph is for SPDR S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as further gain I am sure has to come.
AMEX:SPYV
by Pandorra
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow (Sept 17, 2024)SPY is currently trading around $563.10 and is consolidating near a key resistance level of $564.78. Here’s a detailed analysis: 1. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: The $564.78 level is a critical resistance point. It aligns with previous rejections, so breaking above it with high volume could signal a potential upward move toward the next target of $567.50. Support Levels: If SPY fails to break above resistance, the first support is at $562.56. Below that, the key support levels are: $556.46 (around the 50-period MA on the 1-hour chart). $552.72 (another significant support as shown on the Volume Profile). $540.11 (a major demand zone). 2. Volume Profile: The Volume Profile suggests that $556.46 is an area of high interest for buyers, making it a critical support level if SPY faces selling pressure. The red and blue zones on the right-hand side show high liquidity zones where price is likely to react (either with consolidation or a strong bounce). 3. Moving Averages: The short-term moving average (green line) is trending upwards, reflecting positive short-term momentum. This aligns with the recent bullish price movement. The longer-term moving average (purple line, likely the 200-period MA) is further below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish. 4. Price Action and Momentum: SPY is in an uptrend, having recovered strongly from the lows around $540.11 earlier this month. The current consolidation below $564.78 indicates indecision, and tomorrow’s move will likely depend on whether SPY can break above this resistance. If it does, the next target could be the $570 psychological level, but if rejected, expect a pullback toward $556.46 or $552.72. 5. Prediction for Tomorrow: Bullish Scenario: If SPY breaks above $564.78 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally towards $567.50 and potentially higher toward $570. Bearish Scenario: If SPY gets rejected at this resistance, a pullback towards $556.46 or $552.72 is possible. Watch how SPY reacts at those support levels for potential buying opportunities.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
$SMH Wedging Here – It Can Break Either WayI have been long NASDAQ:SMH for months and have been up as much as 18%. I have given a lot of that back and am now watching this chart very closely. I did hang in for that 29% drop (shown on chart) and felt it was a shake-out. It started recovering nicely but dipped again. The only positive thing I can say about this chart is that it has managed to put in a higher low (but has it?). I am watching this wedging pattern and looking for it to break either way. My bias since I am long is to break up and out. But I am prepared for a breakdown as well. I have an alert on both the upper and lower trendlines. Should it break up, I will add to my position and should it breakdown I am ready to sell my position and consider shorting. All TBD. Thanks for checking it out. Comments always welcome.
NASDAQ:SMH
by jaxdog
2
XLK Crossover IdeaAMEX:XLK Standard crossover idea: Buying at open so long as we open or push above yesterdays close. Looking at an Oct contract Oct18 215c for roughly 9.7 (I'll try to buy at the mid) Using the ATR of 5.7 - SL: 215.89 (just below YLOD and 100d SMA) TP1: 227.37 resistance TP2: 232.17 supply zone test TP3: 238.12 ATH's test Max Date: Market open of 9/25/24 **As always, if targets are not met by max date, I will exit full no matter the p/l. Also keep in mind that there are certainly more catalysts ahead next week with the rate decision.
AMEX:XLK
by D_Rockefeller
Fed Rate Cut Analysis $Spy Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession. If no recession, stocks rise by >10%. The volatility that dominated markets in the early part of the month sharply reversed in the past week, driven by growing expectations of interest rate cuts that have bolstered investor risk appetite. The latest batch of inflation statistics for August have given the green light for the Federal Reserve to proceed with an interest rate cut, which is highly likely to occur on Sept. 18. The remaining question concerns the size of the cut — whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points — though market consensus and recent comments from Fed officials suggest the more conservative 25 basis points is the likely scenario. Some consolidation around the current levels could not be ruled out before the Fed’s interest-rate announcement, scheduled for Wednesday. While some call for broadening of the market rally, with tech stocks likely to add on to their gains, others draw cues from history, which shows that the market typically collapses after a rate cut. Regional manufacturing activity data could also impact the market direction of the day.
AMEX:SPYShort
by willtradesdaily
SPY The Final PushMarkets have been extremely volatile this summer with the anticipation of a rate cut swiftly approaching in September. Futures markets are currently predicting a 99% probability of a cut in September. Historically, markets do not tend to crash during election years, however the combination of rate cuts, global tensions, inflation, employment, and many more factors may change the outcome of what is to come. At the moment, the markets have made a large move to the downside into a previous support zone. Additionally, I am seeing absorption on the CVD, potentially suggestion weak hands are selling into the hands of the bigger players. There could be some room for the market to get a bounce here. We do have several gaps left behind us on the way up where major liquidity is sitting. An SFP swing failure pattern of the all time high, would be a critical area if we make it that far. A bounce here may provide us some temporary upside before the eventual selling of the news of rate cuts. I am looking to hedge myself against a larger drop going into September. Only time will tell, Good luck!
AMEX:SPYShort
by afurs1
2
SLV Siver - Bullish Trend Shift Finally?Hello everyone! As always I hope you're all having a great start to your week. Update on Silver in 5 minutes or less: Pattern is very similar to BTC where we've been seeing a series of LOWER HIGHs followed by LOWER LOWs, however there's a possibility that we're seeing the beginning of a trend change. We're not out of the woods. We really need to take out the prior lower high that was followed by a lower low to increase confidence that silver is finally making a move back to ATH. That level is at $28.91. The critical support to keep is currently that pivot we saw on August 27th around $27.50. Nothing is guaranteed in the markets, but probability of the next move being ATH is a move above $28.91 (lets call it $29), and probability that we may be seeing a move back to make a new lower low would be a break of that $27.50 level on a weekly timeframe. Things look optimistic right now, but watch Gold and see what it does. There may be some rotation that has already start with SLV having a +10% week last week. Have a great day everyone and thanks for reading!
AMEX:SLVLong
by bitdoctor
BITO Swing Trade & Passive Income Play Shares only: BITO gives you exposure of the movement from Bitcoin without actually owning Bitcoin. Now BITO is volatile so you will get big moves up or down. Now i like BITO for a swing if Bitcoin gets another leg up from the bull flag that its currently trading within. The chart shows a comparison between AMEX:BITO (lower) and Bitcoin (higher) PLUS i like BITO for the the high dividend its currently paying. Now beware that the dividend yield may change and i personally would NOT treat this as a long term passive income play but during the time being of the swing i like the ability to earn some passive income. I'm taking this with a light position.
AMEX:BITOLong
by Betitio
Fed rate cut sector watchHere's a Fed rate cut sector watch split view charts with TTCATR and FibTSI indicators. On Wednesday 9/18/24 at 2pm, the FOMC is forecast to cut the interest rate .25 from 5.5% down to 5.25%. The sectors that could benefit the most from a .25 rate cut are utilities, real estate and consumer discretionary. However, the market has, more or less, already priced in a fair bull run in XLU, XLRE & XLY since August. Overall, most sectors will benefit from a .25 rate cut. But the market could be very volatile this week. With bulls wanting .50 rate cut, then being disappointed with a sell off, then bears get offsides with a relief rally. I'm posting this as neither long or short because I think they'll be opportunities to trade in either direction this week. XLK Technology XLE Energy XLV Health Care XLF Financials XLB Materials XLY Consumer Discretionary XLU Utilities XLRE Real Estate Communication Services XLC, Consumer Staples XLP, Industrials XLI.
AMEX:XLRE
by Options360
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours. I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum. What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options. Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September. I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders. OK. Happy Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8