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Bears in the market RapBears in the market, we playin’ it smart, I see the markets crashin’ like ‘08 and ‘20 conceived a baby, On Putin’s Berlin Wall, this vibe be gettin’ shady. Options spread wide, keep my capital tight like trump's Epstein supply, Hedgin’ every move ‘cause this ain’t my first fight. YQQQ payin’ dividends, I'm takin’ my part. They all panic sellin’, but I planned from the start, FIAT is king when those crypto scams fall apart. Political tides shiftin’, policies determin’ trends, Macro factors got these rookies shifting to bonds and I be selling them short, Fed rates rising, tech stocks takin’ hits, While CMBS is drownin’, banks hidin’ like Thompson's Ghost. CMBS breakin’, banks won’t admit the fall, Hold-to-Maturity? Nah, it’s worthless on the call. They waitin’ for the markdown, valuations fade, DRV stackin’ profits while they sinkin’ in the shade. This CRSH got me stackin’ up like they seig heiled the top in swastikar, Their Nazi heart, redneck crypto, got FIAT lookin’ sexy, inflation creepin, Been stocking up on GDXY, like a libertarian in heat. Cyber threats risin’, HACK'n that ETF space like it's the matrix, and every red pill swapped with the blue pill, like the prez date raped them, and sold em to epstein at the polls Tariffs hit the market, but these dunces never learn. Commercial real estate? Ain’t no savin’ that crash, DRV on the rise, I be stackin’ that cash. If you be bear'n to bear arms, let me hear you roar, Let those inverse dividends stackin’, I got those passive gains to steer. While they stress about the crash, I be movin’ with the tide, Bear market blues, but my strategy aligned.
NASDAQ:YQQQ
by livingdracula
$TLT - Well we are waitingNASDAQ:TLT saw yet another rejection, but this time it recovered quickly. I expect it to break out soon. 🙏 TLT is slapped around by the Fed, inflation, employment data, Trump’s tariffs, and Doge's push to cut government waste and potential handout of $5000 dividend for all. Bond traders will eventually give up trying to figure this out. One thing is clear: The Treasury Secretary and President Trump have stated that they are focused on lowering long-term bond yields. It is in the best interest of the country to lower long-term bond yields to reduce the government’s interest payments.
NASDAQ:TLT
by PaperBozz
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.21.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🛢️ Trump Considers 25% Tariff on Imported Cars: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, aiming to protect domestic manufacturers. This move could impact global trade relations and the automotive industry. 🇷🇺🇺🇸 U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Talks: High-level discussions between U.S. and Russian officials are set to continue, focusing on resolving the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Outcomes from these talks may influence global markets and geopolitical stability. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Friday, Feb 21: 🏭 Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 51.3; Previous: 51.2. 💼 Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0; Previous: 52.9. 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.13M; Previous: 4.24M. 📉 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 71.1; Previous: 67.8. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Opening (IRA): TQQQ March 21st 69 Covered Call... for a 67.07 debit Comments: Not finished with March yet ... . Taking less risk here than I would ordinarily do to give me more room to be wrong, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.07 debit Max Profit: 1.93 ROC at Max: 2.88% 50% Max: .97 ROC at 50% Max: 1.44% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at break evens better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out my short call if my take profit is not hit.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
GDX - Gold Miners ETF: Inverse Head & shouldersGold prices have surged to unprecedented levels in light of recent trade policy changes. The announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding a new 25% tariff on essential imports such as cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals has created a wave of uncertainty among investors. This risk-off sentiment has driven many to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold. Nevertheless, this upward momentum may encounter challenges if a trade agreement with China comes to fruition. A successful deal could alleviate global trade tensions, leading to a decrease in gold demand and possibly resulting in selling pressure. However sustained high bullion prices could prove to be a significant advantage for gold miners. The GDX ETF is showing a persistent inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating potential for further gains.
AMEX:GDXLong
by BallaJi
15
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 20 Not a terribly difficult trading range today. ATH’s above us, 35EMA below, bottom of the implied move 535 Bearish divergence in strength. 30min 200MA likely on deck Pretty bullish setup overall but overbought and bearish divergence. Low volume too which is driving me crazy but we don’t seem to get any sell off volume. The 1hr 200MA is underneath the 50DMA (which is the 2hr 200MA) and that is a hidden bearish signal.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SPY: Key Levels and Market Outlook for February 20, 2025Market Structure & Price Action SPY remains within an ascending channel, showing resilience around the 612.30-612.90 zone. The price structure suggests a potential breakout or rejection at resistance. * Support Levels: * 609.60-610.00 (key short-term support) * 608.37 (potential breakdown trigger) * Resistance Levels: * 613.23 (local high & key breakout level) * 615.00+ (potential upside target if momentum continues) GEX & Options Flow Analysis * Call Wall: 615 & 620 * Put Support: 598-605 * Put Sentiment: 83.4% (indicating downside hedging, but could fuel upside if trapped sellers unwind) * IV Rank: 15.2 (relatively low volatility, suggesting a breakout move could be sharp) Possible Scenarios ✅ Bullish Breakout: If SPY holds above 612.50-613, a move towards 615-620 could be in play.
 🚨 Bearish Breakdown: Losing 609.60-610.00 would expose SPY to deeper pullbacks toward 605-600. Final Thoughts The market is at a key inflection point. Monitor volume and price reactions at 613 and 610 for directional confirmation. If momentum builds, SPY could extend toward 615, but failing to hold 610 could shift sentiment bearish.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Thursday, Feb 20: 🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3. 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K. 📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) Extending HigherNasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has broken to new all-time high suggesting the right side remains firmly bullish. The rally from 1.27.2025 low is in progress as a 5 waves with extension (nest). Up from 1.27.2025 low, wave 1 ended at 531.52 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 507.5. The ETF has extended higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 532.10. Pullback in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 521.56, and wave (x) ended at 530.36. Wave (y) lower ended at 521.32 which also completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The ETF has resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 530.72 and pullback in wave ii ended at 527.22. Wave iii higher ended at 541.28 and pullback in wave iv ended at 536.04. Expect wave v to complete soon which should end wave (i) in higher degree. The ETF should then pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 2.12.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 521.32 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
DCA Play $SOXL | Good R:Rhere are my key observations based 4-hour chart on AMEX:SOXL Price is in a tight consolidation. must break $28.54 with an abs close to see upside potential. If rejected, a revisit of $26.35 or lower could happen. However, this sets us up for a great averaging play $26.35 is a strong support, meaning price may bounce before reaching $25.57, a logical place to accumulate. SL @ $23.77 (or close =< .79) a break below 23.80 will mean further downside. (best to confirm with close) T1 @ $30.00 first aligns with 50% Fib. standard reversal area. T2 @ $32.70 to gap fill if momentum is persists Why this works: no need to predict the exact bottom, nature of cost avg'ing earlier rebound to $25.57 allows you to maintain exposure scaling out at $30 and $32.70 locks in profits while allowing more upside Good risk-reward ratio (~1:2.5 or better) Risks to consider: breaks <$23.79, will go lower (possibly retesting $22-$21 range) If volume remains weak, recovery to $30 may take longer than expected semiconductors remain somewhat bearish, meaning AMEX:SOXL could lag even if it stabilizes a bit Watch for volume confirmation on the bounce Play for T2: In the event that price reclaims $28.54 quickly, consider adding to the position for momentum play to $30.00 Other supporting indicators: a descending wedge has formed, this occurs after a downtrend where price is making lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the downward move is narrowing; a bullish signal because it shows sellers losing strength, and a breakout to the upside is likely. Last Vol was at 43.88M, lots of involvement Implied Volatility was at 91.45% β 4.32 : market expects large swings Put to Call ratio (0.67) indicate to me that there are more calls than puts out, a bullish sentiment for those who aren't familiar with options.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by EJSM
Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising. Entry: Current Market Price Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room. Targets: All time high Ideas and Inputs are welcome. Thank you for dropping by. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Krut4rth7
7
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below: 1. Which stocks to choose? 2. At what price should the trade be made? 3. In what volume? As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait. However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map. Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right. Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks. Vertical line Alpha - Y axis Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions. Fear of the button This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready. Enthusiasm At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. FOMO FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there. Zen The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills. Disappointment This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy. Euphoria Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue. Tilt A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value. Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Be_Capy