SPY - Another Leg DownCould be just a little correction in this larger leg down. A 1 to 1 relationship between the expected wave and the first shows that SPY would find support around 523. Shortby AssetDesignUpdated 4
$IWM Daily Trading Range for Friday August 2ndIWM took a beatdown yesterday and again today in premarket. It is just a little after 8:30 AM this morning, and IWM is down about 3.5%. It is now underneath the two gaps that we saw above the previous long-time resistance at 211. It will be interesting to see if that 211 level remains as resistance, or if we can get back above it and try again to fill those gaps from underneath. by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-2 : Breakaway In Carryover ModeAs we have all experienced over the past 6+ days - outside news events can (and often do) disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns. I've talked about the Kamala-Crush event (just 10+ days ago) that disrupted market trends after Biden stepped down from running for POTUS in 2024. I've talked about how capital would shift away from risks because of the sudden shift in expectations. I've talked about how this shifting capital would likely benefit the US market and what I call (major global economies) - where capital may rush into areas considered safer than most of the rest of the globe. Then, we saw a bloody attack on Israeli children turn the world upside down with the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict. We are now seeing Japan really become an issue with the BOJ attempting to manage risk factors related to their economy. In my opinion, the past 10+ days have been a series of minor crisis events (some a bit more major than minor) that have played out to disrupt the US/Global markets with huge volatility. We don't normally see 2.5 to 5.5% price swings - EVER. These types of price swings are MASSIVE. We are living through a disruption that may go down in history related to a global shift in expectations. But, at the same time, we've only seen the US markets fall 3.5% from the recent highs. Certainly not a CRASH event (yet). Honestly, I don't expect my SPY Cycle Pattern to play out very well today. I believe these outside factors are really driving price action and I've clearly tried to highlight that in this video. If & when the markets settle and move back into more normal types of price trending (away from outside factors driving price trend) - the SPY Cycle Patterns will likely fall back into a better predictive mode. As I stated, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. The past 10-15+ days have been very unusual (to say the least). We've seen a series of events that are really unprecedented (starting with the Kamale-Crush). Buckle up. Today could be a very interesting day if support holds. We may see the SPY attempt to rally back above $552-554 at some point. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong21:34by BradMatheny111
$QQQM a troubling pattern forming in the weekly chartNASDAQ:QQQM has generated large profits since December 2022 with the market clearly being in an uptrend. It is normal and expected that strong uptrends will follow with periods of sell-off where investors start closing their long positions to gather their profits. However, when analysing the market at the higher timeframes it becomes apparent that as price moves into higher-highs, the momentum waves measured through Elliott's wave theory become smaller. Could this type of divergence indicate a weakening of the previously established bullish trend or is it simply summer sales with a premise of larger gains after this sell-off is over? Taking into account the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East is reaching near a culminating point, I am moving cautiously ahead, expecting a serious season of consolidation before any strong move in the upwards or downwards direction. PS: I'm not a financial advisor, simply expressing my thoughts in an open format in hopes that others might have additional insights to include or criticise so that we may all be able to make better informed decisions by sharing our experiences.by chriskokal10
QQQ beginning of bear market Looking at QQQ starting from the dip of the corona, we had 5 touches on the bottom end of a very clear trend line. the 6th touch of the bottom trend line started the 2022 bear market when it broke below the support. I think the same might happen now. We are 10% off the highs, with 3 touches on the trend line support. If we close below the marked trend line we are going to test the 2021 highs. If QQQ bounces off the support, we will see it go to 550 as indicated by the fibonacci retracement. Anyway one more very cool detail about this bull run is that from the lows of the corona to the top of 2021 the QQQ went up exactly 241 points, which is also the exact amount it went up from the bottom of 2022 to the top we saw at the beginning of July. Watch this key level closely. If we break below the support trend line, this is going to be an actual bear marketby itay15421
$SPY August 2, 2024AMEX:SPY August 2, 2024 15 Minutes AMEX:SPY was not able to hold 554 555 levels. So, it gave a chance to said earlier it closed below 21 moving averages. For the day taking the fall 554.86 to 539.43 then 546-548 will be a good level to short. So, holding 541 -542 today I will try for a sell on rise. On other side if close below 539 as said earlier I will aim first for 536 levels which is at the moment 200 average in 180-minute timeframe.Shortby RiderTrader0
I spy $600Hi everyone - I wanted to make a quick post with my thoughts on the next moves for AMEX:SPY using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Price/Time levels. I’m on my phone so I apologize if the chart screenshot looks cluttered. AMEX:SPY is currently in a Primary W5 that should conclude in August. Yesterday we saw a spike after CPI came in cooler than expected, which completed the Minor W5/Intermediate W3 at $542.46. The market also received disappointing news that the fed is only planning on one rate cut this year. This type of news bolsters the argument that we are entering an Intermediate W4. I do not think this wave will last long and it could be choppy since Intermediate W2 saw a sharp move down after the extended W1. I will not go short on this trade and will wait to go long near the bottom of the channel ($530) around June 24th. As you can see on the volume profile, there is significant buying pressure at this level which will propel us into Intermediate W5. The fifth wave will need to reach the Primary 1.618 price level and Primary 1.618 fib time marker. These levels cross on August 6th at $594. I think there will be psychological pressure to hit $600 since we’ll be in a PW5/IW5/MW5 wave. From there, I predict we enter a bear market that could also carry a negative news catalyst. If the bear market is primarily technical without fundamental support, I predict the market will pick back up next year. Longby ap769Updated 9918
$QQQ Trading range for Friday, August 2nd - Aug 5thWe have a pretty big trading range for the next two days. The implied move in QQQ is between 450 and 468 on Friday’s contract, and then on Monday’s contract, it is between 448 and 447—so about 2.36% in either direction. We have seen the four-hour 200 moving average as support since last Thursday. We saw a bounce at that level this Tuesday and then again today, this Thursday. The momentum on that is still moving up. Above us, we have the 35 EMA. Outside of the trading range, we have quite a wall of resistance. We hit that wall today and got a super sharp rejection down. The 50-day moving average was there as well. We hit that 50-day moving average and dropped straight down to the four-hour 200 moving average. So, a big drop today and clear resistance at the 50-day moving average, clear support at the four-hour 200 moving average. Those are just some targets to look for tomorrow. Good luck tomorrow, guys!by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading3
$SPY Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndll right, so tomorrow’s implied move is really big. It is $6.87 in each direction, so the implied move is between 536 and 551. The implied move on Monday’s contract is between 534 and 553. The 50-day moving average is cutting right across the trading ranges for the next two days, and we have been shopping violently around that level. Above the trading range, we have the 30-minute two moving average and the one-hour two moving average. Those are both pointing down, and actually, the one-hour two moving average is pretty flat. Then we have the four-hour two moving average underneath our trading range and right towards the bottom of the implied move for tomorrow. We do have the remainder of that gap from June. That was June when we also had CPI and PPI right around that time as well. That gap could act as support if we drop down to it tomorrow, as it has held us up for the past two weeks.by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading2
QQQ Put & Call case for 8/1/24QQQ along with the rest of big tech has/is looking weak. This has been going on the the last month at least. Weakness to all of these levels. I am trying to stay neutral , but the price action & volume delta/CVD doesn't lie.Shortby interestingoak320111
Possible path for TLT over the next weekFed meeting next week, along with jobs numbers this thursday. Could Powell launch a surprise rate cut due to the CrowdStrike IT hack? Powell has said that his number one concern that keeps him up at night is Cyberby GoodTextureUpdated 334
SPY BUY for bounce to $554Spy held cloud support at $536 and is trading above Fib .236 we have overhead resistance at $548 I expect it to break through and test $551 ad high as $554Longby ShortSeller76Updated 2
SPY no mans land but look out below!It appears SPY hit it's head hard on overhead resistance and has flirted with support several times on the one day. I believe if we tap support again around $538 we will break through it to the downside. If SPY can get over the $555 resistance on a few daily candles we could test a new all time high, but that's a long shot fundamentally all companies are citing a weak consumer. by ShortSeller762
IWM Breakout FailureI admit, AMEX:IWM was looking fantastic but the weight of the markets are much heavier right now and causing this one to decline. This a clear breakout failure and prices are likely to trade lower next. Shortby finvizclub0
reversal couple gap need filled, with rounding top looking for a downtrend for reenetry by scottcloak739Updated 1
SMH breaks though support on increasing volumeSMH opened up selling off and continued to sell off through multiple periods. Broke through support Continued selling through multiple periods Increasing volume while selling Broke current upward trend its been on since May Expect to see more selling to come Shortby ratchet-mintUpdated 0
SPY: Wave 3On my AMD analysis I mentioned the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, so tomorrow's unemployment rate could signal this indicator. I was thinking we'd fill the gap at 562, but based on further analysis, it appears that we are beginning wave 3 down and today's gap fill at 554 signaled the top of wave 2. This VIX is showing signs of a breakout to the upside with the monthly chart on SPY, as well as many other stocks, is showing more selling ahead. I think META is going to be the big winner for PUT buyers since there is a sizeable gap that was created after earnings. I will post a chart on META next. SPY PT1 is 527 and PT2 519Shortby FiboTrader1229
Ethereum ETF Launch Causing Temporary Crypto Dump!Last week was the official launch of the long anticipated Ethereum spot ETF. Sadly, the markets dumped right after trading went life. We have seen the exact same thing happen earlier this year with the BTC spot ETF launch, where the ETF lost over 26% of its value in the first 7 trading days. The Ethereum ETF is currently trading at -12% after 7 trading days. Historically, great crypto news has ALWAYS caused some kind of dump. See the analysis below for reference: Although we're going down, I think it's a merely temporary dump. Like mentioned in my most recent BTC analysis, I think that the green area on the chart is the perfect area to start buying in again in the hopes of a turnaround in the ETF's trading direction. Share your thoughts on whether this analysis makes sense or not. Happy to hear what you think!Longby FieryTradingUpdated 22219
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle. Currently, we have the following disposition: 1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control. 2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength. From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend. A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts. by hermes_trismeUpdated 2
Full Send Incoming - Through The Van Allen Radiation Belt We Go!Put on your oxygen masks ladies and gentlemen. The U.S. stock market is about to go ballistic. You all know from my daily chart, we nearly hit the target of my inverse head and shoulders pattern to the dollar. Target was 570. One of my recent posts indicated that I was selling half at 560, taking my profit, and parking it in cash. But now, I will take that cash and pack my bags again as the market is getting ready to blow minds. Literally, everyone is predicting a market crash soon. And that may happen. But not before a rocket launch to the moon that will rip faces off. Pack your bags and BTFD folks. Ticket sales will be on fire for this rocket ride.Longby stewdamus4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-1 : Where's the BaseRally301 PatternI know. I'm asking the same question. Today's move is not normal. The US markets don't move 1.5 to 3.5% on normal days. This is something bigger - outside the normal scope of market data. It could be the election conflict in Venezuela. It could be the US POTUS election news. It could be what appears to be a collapse in Asian markets. It could be that European markets fell hard today. It could be anything that is related to forward expectations for the US/Global markets. My data is still showing this is a DIP in a bullish trend (a BUY THE DIP opportunity). My data shows the following: - Europe & Asia are trending downward. - US is following Europe/Asia. - US-Dollar Demand (SPY BASE TREND) is flat - but still strong - Hedge Assets (Gold/Silver/BTCUSD) are holding up well in the face of this move. - The MRM system has not turned BEARISH yet (that's good). - Major Markets To Metals (hedge instruments) are much weaker. - The Volatility Index is at 15.51 (still above the <12 level for a bearish trend). - The Leading Index is lower (showing Volatility near a Flag Apex). - The Market Ratio index is higher (showing reflation strength). - The US to Global Index is still showing the US markets are stronger than the foreign markets. - The US Valuation Trend index is at 240 (reflating strongly compared to foreign markets). After watching the price trend all morning with my new MENT Pressure System (including the Fibonacci Price Theory model), I really do believe this is a FLUSH-OUT LOW setting up which will revert back into a bullish price trend (the Vortex Rally phase). Nothing seems broken to me (yet). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong09:28by BradMatheny1
When UVIX hits the 100 SMAWhen UVIX hits the 100 SMA it's time to call an end to this correction.Longby OptiPulseUpdated 0