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A perfect masterpiece - my final trade & mic dropHello friends. I have found the perfect trade, and I went all in with my entire account because my conviction is so high that I can say I'm 99.9% sure that I will be correct. I have never been this confident about a trade in my entire career to date. I have purchased six figures in put contracts on the SPY and SPX because I can see that a crash is about to happen. Here are a few of the factors that I am looking at which have made me so confident. 1) Retail is frantically buying the dip as well as the rip, and they are almost always wrong & lose money. Meanwhile, smart money has been selling this whole time. 2) My wave theory shows a clear WXY pattern that has now been completed. We can't currently be in an impulsive wave to the upside because there is too much overlapping. 3) Trade deal is NOT coming soon. Polymarket predicts only 19% odds for a US-China trade deal to happen before June. The tariff situation does not look good, and it isn't priced in anymore as we have retraced the entire tariff dump already. 4) The market is currently trading far above liquidity based fair value, which has been plummeting in recent weeks indicating that a drop is bound to happen soon for risk prices. To reach the fair price, the SPY should trade about 30% lower than current prices. This gives us enormous room for a cascade to the downside.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bowtrix
16
IWM: Short SetupPublished by Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 1, 2025 Thesis: Short-term weakness is emerging on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( AMEX:IWM ) as momentum fades following a steep vertical rally. A breakdown below the mid-band could trigger further downside into key support zones. 🔍 Technical Breakdown Chart: 15-minute timeframe Trend: Bearish short-term momentum Key Levels: Resistance: $195.64 (session high) Mid-range Support: $194.45 (VWAP/mid-band) Critical Demand Zone: $192.87 Indicators: Price has pierced the upper Bollinger band and is now retreating toward the midline. Strong rejection candle formed at the recent high, signaling buyer exhaustion. Visual downward projection aligns with the VWAP deviation bands, reinforcing mean reversion expectations. 🧠 Probability Outlook Bearish Continuation: 65% probability Trigger: Break and close below $194.45 Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability Trigger: Price holds above VWAP zone Bullish Reversal: 10% probability Trigger: Break back above $195.64 with volume 🔧 Strategy Short bias favored with target at $192.87 Stop-loss: Above $195.80 Watch for increased volatility near macro catalysts (e.g., Fed rate decisions) 🧭 Stay disciplined. We trade probabilities, not certainties. 💬 Drop your thoughts and setups below 👇 #IWM #Russell2000 #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BollingerBands #MeanReversion #StockMarket #ETF #WavervanirDSS #MarketOutlook #QuantitativeTrading
AMEX:IWMShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
4
If you think the 2025 bottom is in you couldn't be more wrongIf you think the bottom for 2025 is in and it's only up from here let me have what you're smoking. Just a puff, please! About 80% of social media retail traders are confidently calling a bottom, that's a major contrarian signal. Herding equals danger! If everyone is bullish, most are already positioned long leaving a few buyers to push prices higher. It's known as "pain trade" where markets often move in the direction that causes the most discomfort. Many of loudest voices are retail traders influencers chasing engagement, not portfolio managers or data driven strategists. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN
AMEX:SPY
by ProfitTradeRoom
8
SPY/QQQ NQ/ES 1 Mayo 2025Key Analysis – QQQ (May 1st, 2025) 📍 Current Price Context Price is currently around 484.75 after a strong upward move. Trading near a Call Wall at 482 and a potential Rejection Block Head at 484.72. 🔼 Upside Targets (Bullish Scenario) 📈 Level 🎯 Target Description NQ Equivalent 1 482 – Call Wall 19920 2 484.72 – RB Head 20040 3 489.3 – Target Resistance 20220 4 494 – Strong Sell Zone 20400 🟩 "Possible Sell Zone" is clearly marked between 489–494, indicating potential profit-taking or reversals. 🔽 Downside Targets (Bearish Scenario) 📉 Level 🔻 Target Description NQ Equivalent 1 479 – Call Wall 19780 2 476/475 – Gamma Cluster 19660/19620 3 472 – Put Wall — 4 470/471 – Strong Gamma Line 19420/19460 5 466.28 – Extreme Bear Target 19280 🟩 "Possible Buy Zone" around 470–474, reinforced by the Zero Gamma Line at 471, is where strong bounce reactions may occur. 🔄 Strategic Zones (For Entry/Exit) 🟨 Neutral Zones (Buy/Sell Opportunity): 479 (Decision level based on flow) 484 (retest or breakout area) 🟩 Strong Demand Zone: Between 470 and 472 – Strong gamma support + Put Walls 🟥 Strong Supply Zone: Between 489 and 494 – High concentration of call options and projected resistance 🔀 Expected Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If price holds above 484.72 → potential path toward 489.3 → 494. Rejection at 484–485: Pullback to 479 → watch reaction near 476–472 for potential bounce. Bearish Breakdown: Below 472, potential retest of 470/466 area.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JCAVGROUP
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-1 : Bottom-104Today's Bottom pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move downward - trying to find support. Even though it may appear my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern will not happen as I expect - this is a very good lesson for traders. I'm not 100% accurate all the time. Sometimes, the markets do things that are not aligned with my research/patterns and sometimes the markets can be far more irrational than traders expect. For example, I believe this current rally is more of a speculative rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD. There is nothing I'm seeing in the Crash Index (or TRAN) to support this upward price move other than traders attempting to "buy the dip". Ultimately, I believe the current contraction in the global economy based on policies, tariffs and economic disruptions will continue to drive a consolidation, basing type of price trend, traders are buying into this dip and attempting to drive price upward on expectations of a growing global economy. Time will tell how things play out - but my longer-term modeling systems are still Bearish. I will be on the road with my father today - so I'm not going to be as available to answer questions. Watch this video twice if you need to. It will be interesting to see how the next 5+ days in the markets play out. As I stated, I'm not 100% accurate all the time. I do my best to try to help guide all of you through these market trends with my research and cycle patterns - but, that is not enough to guarantee 100% accuracy on any trade. That's just how it is in the world. No one is 100% perfect at predicting market moves. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
20
SPY - dump or bull market is back?hi traders, Some months ago, we shared the idea where we explained that SPX will experience a correction: The targets were reached, and next we saw a decent bounce, which is very well visible on the monthly candle. Today, I see a lot of excitement about the monthly close, and many people call for a new all-time high soon. I want to bring to your attention the monthly close in 2000. It looks very similar to what we got yesterday. A long, lower-shadow wick resulted in a bearish imbalance characterised by an excess of sellers, exerting downward pressure. I still can see SPY/SPX retesting 570-580 levels, but it doesn't change the fact that lower levels may be tested in the next few weeks/months. We got a bearish cross on the monthly time frame, which is not a joke. If bears take control, I expect SPY to visit 460~ levels and later even lower: 410-408. Long story short: 1. Short-term bounce may continue. 2. Mid-term - bears will take control, and we will see a bigger correction. Do you agree? Share your opinion in the comments section
AMEX:SPYShort
by vf_investment
4
Candlestick Patterns + Trend and Momentum: A Perfect CombinationCandlestick patterns provide valuable insights into price action, showing potential reversals, continuations, or market indecision. However, to significantly improve their effectiveness, combining candlestick analysis with trend and momentum indicators is essential. Here’s how you can use these combinations to trade with more confidence and accuracy. 1. Why Candlestick Patterns Matter Candlestick patterns visually represent traders’ psychology through price movements, including four key prices: Open, Close, High, and Low. Some of the most common and useful patterns include: Doji: Indicates market indecision and potential reversals. Hammer & Hanging Man: Signals possible trend reversals at support or resistance. Engulfing Pattern: Often marks the beginning of a significant reversal. Morning/Evening Star: Combination patterns that strongly suggest a trend reversal. 2. Adding Trend and Momentum Indicators Candlestick patterns alone might lead to false signals or confusion. By pairing them with other technical tools, such as moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), you gain crucial context to confirm the reliability of the patterns. Here’s how: Trend Alignment: Using moving averages, such as the 20 or 50-period EMA, helps confirm whether a bullish candlestick pattern appears in an uptrend (strengthening the signal) or countertrend (potentially weaker signal). Momentum Confirmation: Oscillators like the RSI or MACD can confirm the underlying momentum behind a candlestick pattern. For instance, a bullish engulfing pattern becomes more reliable if it coincides with RSI moving upward from oversold territory or MACD showing a bullish crossover. Volume Analysis: Higher volume on the candle that forms the pattern typically confirms increased market interest and strengthens the validity of the signal. 3. Practical Example: Bullish Engulfing + RSI Imagine you spot a bullish engulfing pattern forming at a clear support level after a downtrend: Step 1: Identify the Pattern: Confirm the bullish engulfing visually. Step 2: Check RSI: Ensure RSI is below 30 or rising, signaling oversold conditions and potential bullish momentum. 4. Why This Approach Works Enhanced Accuracy: Combining candlestick signals with trend and momentum indicators increases signal reliability. Improved Risk Management: Clearer signals mean more confident entries and better-defined stop-loss levels. Reduces False Signals: Multiple confirmations reduce the risk of false breakouts or reversals. 5. Final Tips Always look for multiple confirmations (trend, momentum, volume) before making trade decisions based solely on candlestick patterns. Be patient—waiting for full confirmation can help avoid premature trades. Regularly backtest and practice recognizing these combined signals to strengthen your trading strategy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by TrendGo_Official
SPY Eyeing Breakout — Trump Buzz & Options Walls Fuel Fire I'm breaking down SPY here the way I process it while flipping between daily and 1-hour charts. Daily Timeframe:
The price action is flirting right at the top of this falling wedge pattern. What catches my attention is the strength in MACD and Stoch RSI—they're both pushing hard to the upside. This isn't a weak bounce. Momentum looks real, and we're sitting just under the 555–560 resistance range, which also happens to line up with a key structure break. If we can close above this upper wedge line, bulls might get the weekly breakout confirmation. 1-Hour Chart + GEX:
Now on the hourly, SPY already broke through the 550 level and hovered at 559 into the close. There’s some strong intraday buying volume confirming that breakout. But what's even more important to me is what GEX is showing—there’s a massive cluster of call walls stacked at 555 and 560. Today, the gamma flipped from neutral to green, and GEX data confirmed there's strong call exposure at 560. Meanwhile, the highest negative NETGEX put support sits deep at 545. This creates a strong upward magnet as long as we stay above 547. Also, there’s buzz from today’s Trump investor roundtable. Headlines from that are already driving bullish sentiment, especially with tech and AI names in the mix. That political tailwind could be the final push that launches SPY through the wedge ceiling. My Trade Plan: * If price holds above 552, I’m watching 560+ as the upside magnet. * Break and retest 555, I’ll consider a long scalp or debit spread targeting 560–563. * If 547 breaks, that would be a red flag—puts might activate again and drag us toward 540. Option Bias:
With IV low and GEX sentiment flipping bullish, I prefer buying calls or verticals over selling premium. But the 560 call wall is heavy, so I’m not chasing—wait for confirmation. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Rallying Into ResistanceQQQ Rallying Into Resistance — What’s Next After the Trump Roundtable? I’ve been going through QQQ charts tonight and comparing the Daily and 1H timeframes side by side to map out what might come next — especially after the afternoon rally that aligned with headlines from Trump’s investor roundtable. It definitely caught attention. Daily Chart Thoughts:
QQQ has been trending upward within a falling wedge since early April, and today’s candle closed just under the wedge resistance zone around 475–476. That level lines up with previous support-turned-resistance from March. The MACD is still pushing bullish momentum, and the Stoch RSI is cruising near overbought — signaling strength but caution at this zone. If we break above and hold, the next level I’m eyeing is the 493.50 zone. That would officially flip structure bullish. 1H + GEX Layer:
On the intraday side, today’s session really ramped after 2PM — notably when headlines about Trump’s meeting with tech and AI executives hit the wires. That sharp spike landed QQQ right into the GEX7 and GEX9 clusters, just under the 482.50 high. The Options GEX chart shows the 482 area also has 80%+ call resistance and clustering near key Gamma Walls. Also worth noting: the options positioning is still heavy on puts (64.2%), which tells me this could be a squeeze if bulls defend the breakout above 473–475. If bulls can flip that gamma resistance at 482, we may start working toward 493 or even 500 this week — especially if the macro or political narrative continues to drive risk-on. How I'm Thinking About the Trade:
I’m personally watching for a pullback retest of 475 or even 472. If we hold VWAP and start climbing back into the GEX zone, I’ll look to enter calls with tight stops. If this stalls under 482 and IV spikes, I’d consider selling premium or waiting for a deeper dip to reload. Big Picture Forecast:
The Trump meeting gave bulls a jolt today, but whether that sticks will depend on follow-through volume tomorrow. If this is more than a headline pop, the Daily breakout could legitimize a broader tech rally — especially with Apple and NVDA also pushing. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal market notes and trade planning shared for educational purposes.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
AAPL Compression Before the Break? 🔥Alright, here’s my breakdown on AAPL as I walk through the chart from the daily timeframe, zoom into the hourly, and then connect it with the GEX map for a directional play this week — especially with macro eyes watching SPY and the Trump/investor meeting narrative floating around. 🟩 Daily Timeframe – Holding Uptrend but Needs a Spark
On the daily chart, AAPL is still holding above the trendline and stacking candles inside a minor consolidation. The MACD is trying to curl back up and Stoch RSI looks like it’s reloading after last week’s overbought run. This type of compression right under resistance often leads to breakout setups if buyers step in — especially if SPY keeps grinding up like it did into close today. I’m keeping $215 and $220 in sight as those are the first higher timeframe targets if bulls really get control. ⏱ 1H Timeframe – Clean Structure, But Rejected at Resistance
Zooming into the hourly, you can see how clean AAPL has been. The recent move up tapped the GEX9 and GEX10 zones around $213–$215 before sellers pushed price down hard into the $209–$210 region. That rejection was healthy, volume surged, but now price is hovering near HVL ($205), which is the GEX-projected short-term support. If bulls defend $205 and reclaim $210 tomorrow morning, we could be in for a squeeze toward $213.50–$215 again. 📈 GEX + Options Data – A Battle Near GEX Walls
GEX levels are dense here. That $213.53–$215 band is the highest positive NET GEX wall — a heavy resistance area based on call positioning. Below, PUT walls are stacked at $205 and $200, with the -48% support at $200 acting like a trapdoor if bears take control. But here’s what’s interesting: * IVR is low (40.1), IV is steady, and the Options Oscillator shows some mixed interest. * If the market mood improves (and SPY breaks out), this could become a gamma squeeze magnet toward $220. * On the flip side, if AAPL can’t reclaim $210 early tomorrow, we may drift to retest $205 or even get a nasty flush to $200, especially with earnings risk nearby. 💡 What I’m Thinking:
This looks like a coiled spring. If SPY continues to rise and the Trump/investor meeting adds positive sentiment, AAPL might ride the flow toward $213–$215 and beyond. I’m watching the $210 reclaim as a trigger — no entry unless that happens. Options-wise, calls above $215 are aggressive but could pay off on momentum. Safer trades lie near the money for weekly scalps. If AAPL fails $205, I might flip bias for a quick PUT scalp down to $200. 🛠 Suggested Trade Setups:
Bullish: If price breaks and holds above $210, look to long toward $213.50–$215 with stop under $207.
Bearish: If $205 fails, PUTs targeting $200 with a stop over $208 could work. Ideal setup would be a fake push toward $210 that gets rejected. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Q1 GDP Contraction Raises Recession Fears The U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years, down 0.3% in Q1. Weaker government spending and a rise in imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policies are weighing on growth outlook. 📈 Big Tech Lifts the Market Strong earnings from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) have boosted sentiment. Meta’s revenue guidance and capex surge point to aggressive growth positioning in AI and infrastructure. 🏛️ Treasury Refunding Outlook in Focus Markets are watching the quarterly refunding announcement for clues on upcoming bond issuance. This could influence rate volatility as the Treasury balances deficits and market demand. 🌐 Risk-On Mood Despite Macro Headwinds Global stocks notched a 4-week high as traders bet on resilient earnings and central bank policy steadiness, even as U.S. macro data softens. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 1: 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) Tracks new unemployment filings – a key gauge of near-term labor market stress. 📈 Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) Measures ongoing unemployment benefit recipients, reflecting persistent joblessness. 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET) Reports monthly change in total construction outlays — a direct measure of real economy investment. 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) Provides a snapshot of U.S. factory activity. Readings below 50 suggest contraction. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
V-shaped Recovery SPY to 570-580 We formed a diamond bottom last week and had a false breakout to the downside that quickly turned bullish after it was revealed that Trump was just "trolling" when he mentioned wanting to fire Powell. Once we broke the soft 536 resistance we moved right to the downward trendline (drawn in yellow) hovered there briefly and then cracked through it. We ended last week with a bullish engulfing on the weekly chart and spent these first 3 days at the high. Good earnings kept the market bullish and in the last hour a mineral deal was signed with Ukraine. The bears have little left in the tank, Tariffs look like they are going to be solved in the near future and fear is decreasing. Promising news on Ukraine is turning the wall of worry into a wall of excitement. This is not feeling like a bear market rally, this is looking like the next phase of a bull market. The decline trendline from march can be flipped to bullish and we are climbing steadily on that new line, this recovery is V shaped. I expect resistance in the 570-580 range.
AMEX:SPYLong
by MikeSpy
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-30 : Moving Into FlaggingThis quick update video should help you understand how my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern could represent a move into FLAGGING within an inverted EPP pattern. If my research is correct, the next move for the market will be a moderate downward price trend that will represent the FLAGGING portion of the inverted EPP pattern. You've all see how bullish EPP patterns play out over the past 3 to 5+ months. Now we get to see how this recent SPY low near 480 turns into an inverted EPP pattern. This is basically the same pattern - but forming in an inverted mode. As we transition through this inverted EPP pattern, what I'm looking for is a breakdown move to create the new FLAGGING formation. This move aligns perfectly with my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern and could be a perfect setup for the attempted "breaking of the Flag High" in late May 2025. I'm watching Gold and Silver stay relatively strong today. So I'm seeing today's market move as a "reversion move" - not really a breakdown move (yet). It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If the markets move into Flagging, as I expect, the big opportunities will be to ride the Flagging & Breakdown patterns over the next 30+ days before we move into either an INVALIDATION or CONTINUATION phase of the inverted EPP pattern. Price is the ultimate indicator - you just need to know what to look for. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
15
SPY QQQ NQ/ES 30 De Abril 2025SPY/ES Gamma Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025 Key Insights Based on SpotGamma Levels, Volume Profile & Option Walls: 🔴 Market Context: SPY at 544.52, showing a significant drop of -1.78%. The price has broken down from the upper gamma range and is now testing key support zones. Heavy Put Walls and Call Walls are defining psychological and gamma-driven price magnets. 🔵 Zones & Price Targets: Zone Type Level Description / Reaction Expectation 🔺 Resistance 550 Strong Call Wall & Put Wall, likely a ceiling. Reversal or rejection expected. 🟨 Sell Zone 545 Marked as "Possible Sell Zone", coincides with Put Wall (1) / Call Wall (4) – watch for short entries. 🟩 Buy/Sell Zone 543.70 Neutral area, can serve as battle zone for bulls/bears. Volume shelf area. 🔻 Support 540 Converging Put Wall (3) / Call Wall (5) – strong gamma support, watch for bounce or breakdown. 🎯 Target Levels (Bearish Plan): Target # Level Description 1️⃣ 545 Minor drop target, near-term scalp if price rejects from above. 2️⃣ 543 Medium target if selling pressure continues. 3️⃣ 540 Major target, strong support – key test for further downside continuation. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Lesser Probability Today): Reclaim of 548–550 zone may trigger long setups with potential targets: 548 ES 550 ES 🧠 Strategic Takeaways: "Options positioning is pointing to downside pressure unless bulls reclaim 545-548 area quickly." Ideal setup: Short bounces into 545 with stops above 548. Targets staggered from 543 to 540 based on gamma support layers. Vol Trigger: 550, showing the zone where volatility starts increasing – another bearish sign.
AMEX:SPY
by JCAVGROUP
Don't be terrified/tarrified !!! It's time to go LONG not SHORT9th April is a crucial day , imo of viewing this chart. He was not bluffing the people as it turns out. However, after a week, the market got terrified and heads south but noticed it did not formed a lower low from 9th April candle. 25th April candle tells us it has breaks out from the resistance level and the last two days have been pretty bullish as well. I believe the media is getting fatigue of the tariffs matter and we can see that US and China are behind the curtains "negotiating" while leaving the market guessing who really called who. That was the decoy and it is not important other than face saving. More importantly, the chart has once again convinced us that the buyers are encouraged and prove their actions by longing the market. So whose buying ? Cathy Woods Could the price action reverse ? Of course, though I think the probability is not high. Hedge funds are already queuing to buy bank shares based on favourable Q1 results , a positive sign. As usual, please DYODD
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by dchua1969