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$KBE’S BANKING BOOM—Q4 STRENGTH & POST-ELECTION SURGEAMEX:KBE ’S BANKING BOOM—Q4 STRENGTH & POST-ELECTION SURGE (1/9) Good morning, Tradingview! AMEX:KBE ’s riding high—up 8.3% since the Nov ‘24 election, beating AMEX:SPY ’s 3.3% 📈🔥. Banks are cashing in on trading and dealmaking post-election. Let’s dive into the AMEX:KBE rally! 🚀 (2/9) – PERFORMANCE & REVENUE • Post-Election Gain: +8.3% vs. AMEX:SPY +3.3% 💥 • Q4 Revenue Growth: Holdings ( NYSE:GS , NYSE:JPM , NYSE:BAC ) up 5-10% YoY • Sector EPS Est.: +7-8% for Q4 2024 Fixed income trading and investment banking are fueling the fire! (3/9) – BIG EVENTS • Pro-Business Vibes: Deregulation hopes lift sentiment 🏛️ • M&A/IPO Surge: Banks thriving in deal flow 📊 • NYSE:GS Q4 Est.: GPW:11B + revenue, +5-7% YoY 🚗 X posts buzz about a banking renaissance! (4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN • AMEX:KBE : +8.3% vs. AMEX:XLF +6%, AMEX:IWM +5.4% 🌍 • Forward P/E: ~10x ( AMEX:KBE ) vs. 12x ( AMEX:XLF ), 20x ( AMEX:SPY ) • P/B: 1.2x vs. AMEX:XLF ’s 1.5x Undervalued vs. peers, but banking focus shines! (5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH • Rates: Rising costs could pinch margins 📉 • Trade Policy: Tariffs might slow deals ⚠️ • Loan Demand: Weakness or credit dips a threat 🏦 • Sentiment: Undervaluation lingers—earnings key! (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Trading Power: FICC up 10% in Q4 🌟 • Dealmaking: Top banks lead M&A/IPO surge 🔍 • Low Cost: 0.35% expense ratio beats most 🚦 AMEX:KBE ’s got muscle in the banking game! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: Cyclical reliance, bank-only focus 💸 • Opportunities: Deregulation, 10-15% earnings pop in ‘25 🌍 Can AMEX:KBE cash in on policy and growth? (8/9) – AMEX:KBE ’s Q4 strength—where’s it going? 1️⃣ Bullish—Banks keep soaring. 2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks balance. 3️⃣ Bearish—Rate woes hit hard. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY AMEX:KBE ’s Q4 glows—trading and deals lift banks high 🌍. Cheap at 10x P/E, but risks lurk. Undervalued gem or cyclical trap?
AMEX:KBELong
by DCAChampion
8
Emerging Markets Are Breaking Higher; Be Aware Of Lower USDollarEmerging markets, represented by the EEM chart, have been trending lower since October 2024 in what appears to be a complex W-X-Y corrective pattern. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a strong rally, driven by Trump’s victory in the US elections. However, the rally formed a wedge pattern, which suggests that its upside momentum may be coming to an end. Why is the correlation between EEM and DXY important? If the Trump administration pushes oil prices lower, inflation expectations could also decline. This would likely lead to lower interest rates, which in turn could weigh on the USD. In such a scenario, capital may flow out of the US and into emerging markets. Now that EEM is recovering and breaking above a key channel resistance, it signals that bullish momentum is returning. If this trend continues on EEM to 2024 highs, then DXY could decline to the 105–103 range—or possibly even as low as 100.
AMEX:EEM
by ew-forecast
Setting Up For Big MoveThe up and down motion is a clear precursor for a big move and while the current price action is up....but as yet with out big strong price movement up. As of yet we keep bouncing and moving up and yet not yet breaking any new big territory. A ceiling? Distribution and the load up of shorts for the big rug pull downward to fill the gap? Or consolidation and chewing and coiling before breaking out above. Tempting to choose the later. But my nagging intuition is telling me the gap fill below. Hard for me to jump in low for anything other than a scalp. Holding puts for the possible rug pull. I've been wrong many times before but there's no harm in placing small bets with limited downside for the possible big winner. Too high and too much resistance and gap fill below for me to risk the long (at least for me since I play SP500 futures). Time will tell.
AMEX:SPY
by tbuckle
9
SPY is forming a triangle ...My previous chart may still be valid, but I will build on it with a new chart. We are seeing a triangle formation with the tip forming on Feb. 12. We should see the market breakout, either up or down before the tip. (I typically switch to the hourly charts when drawing my triangle formations to get a more precise drawing. But oftentimes, that will make the lines on the daily chart not match up exactly.) I am NOT a fundamental trader (I am a technical trader) but I find the technical indicators tend to coincide with fundamental reasonings or explanations. Donald Trump stated on Friday, Feb 7th, he will announce tariffs on many countries next week so it would make sense that the market would move next week following the announcement. From a technical trading point of view, the market could go up or down closer to the tip of the triangle. Breakouts of triangle pattern usually occur 2/3 to 3/4 of the triangle length, so the SPY could move outside the triangle before the tip (Feb 28). The triangle pattern is usually considered a continuation pattern which means the market will continue in the direction it was moving before the triangle started. This pattern should usually have at least 5 touches of support and resistance. (You can get any of this information from the internet.) I think there are 3 aspects to trading: 1) Being able to read the charts so you have an idea where the market is going. 2) Being able to choose the correct trade strategy for the market conditions. You do not want to put a bullish trade when the market is bearish and vice versa. There are also certain trades where you can make money when the market is trading sideways with a non-directional trading strategy or a different trade if the market is extremely volatile. You can apply an iron condor, a credit spread, debit spread or butterfly trade depending on the market conditions. All trading strategies have their own risks and rewards. 3) Knowing details, both the positives and negatives about your brokerage which can really elevate your trading. MORE THEORY … which I have stated before. I am using the Heikin Ashi candlesticks. Why Heikin Ashi candlesticks? 1) They show more of a directional movement within candlesticks. 2) They tend to filter out the market noise so you can see the market direction better. 3) It reduces false signals, allowing you to stay in the trade longer. 4) And, it gives you a smoother appearance making it easier to see trends and reversals. (This information is from Dr. Keith Wade who speaks at the Wealth365 Summits.) I personally find: * the 5 minute indicators typically represent what will happen in the next half and hour. * the 10 minute indicators typically represent what will happen in the next hour. * the 30 minute indicators typically represent what will happen in the daily. * and, the hour indicators typically represent what will happen in the next week. Typically, I would wait until there are 2 green Heikin Ashi green candlesticks before entering. I still tend to switch back and forth between Heikin Ashi candlesticks and regular candlesticks since regular candlesticks are what I am familiar with and have been using since I started trading. I use the MacD, the Stock RSI and the DMI to assist me with the direction of the market. I am not perfect at them. I will hopefully try to explain these in future trading charts. I am trying to take trading classes through Udemy, mostly because they are cheap. I usually wait for a sale where the courses are as low as $14.99 instead of paying over $100 per course during the rest of the year. As well, you may be able to get access to Udemy through your local library depending on where you live. www.udemy.com I always try to attend the free Wealth365 Summit which is held about 4 times a year where I always pick up some more useful information. I believe the next week long summit will be around April. Again, I am not affiliated with this company in any way. www.wealth365.com I really like writing up these charts and always learn something new with each chart I draw. The first one is always the hardest but I encourage everyone to draw a chart at least once. Drawing charts was one of the best things I did to improve my trading. Don’t be afraid to make a mistake. Mistakes don't need to be avoided or feared. They help move you forward. Happy trading, everyone!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
3
$IWM RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14 YOU DON’T WANT TO GO LONG AT A DOWNWARD FACING MOVING AVERAGE - And in Friday’s Trading Range we had two of them. The 50 Day Moving average and the 30min 200MA and we got SMACKed back down after gapping over those on Friday. So Last Week was inflation Data. Monday we opened under the 35EMA and the 35EMA was underneath the 30min 200MA. That is a bearish signal. You can see how it acted as resistance and Tuesday we followed through with a gap down. Wednesday was CPI which came in hot and we gapped down to start the day and then traded up but still closed in the red. Thursday was PPI which was also hot and that brought us back to the 35EMA and we closed above it. Friday we made a run for the 50 Day moving average and opened with a gap above it - and you don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. Just a general rule of thumb and the 50 Day MA has a pretty decent downward momentum teamed up with the 30min 200MA that was going to get smacked. It just was. IWM closed flat on Friday -.08%
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
QQQ Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18Technical Analysis (TA) for QQQ * Current Price Action: QQQ is in a strong uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows on the 1-hour timeframe. The price is approaching key resistance levels, making this a critical decision zone. * Support & Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $540 – A breakout could fuel further upside momentum. * Next Resistance: $545 – Aligns with the 2nd Call Wall from GEX data. * Major Resistance: $550 – A strong resistance level where price may struggle. * First Support: $535 – If QQQ pulls back, this level could act as a bounce zone. * Major Support: $527 – A break below this would shift the momentum bearish. * Critical Breakdown Level: $520 – Losing this level would likely lead to increased selling pressure. * Indicators: * MACD: Showing bullish momentum, but there are signs of a possible slowdown. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought, indicating a potential short-term pullback. Options Flow & GEX Analysis * GEX (Gamma Exposure): * Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $540 – QQQ is currently testing this level, a breakout would be bullish. * 68.05% Call Wall: $545 – A major resistance where price may slow down. * 62.58% Call Wall: $540 – Currently acting as resistance. * Put Wall Support: $520 – The strongest downside support from options positioning. * 3rd Put Wall: $510 – If QQQ breaks below this, further downside is likely. * IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank (IVR): 15.6 → Low implied volatility, making options relatively cheap. * IVx Avg: 18.2 → A moderate volatility level. * Options Sentiment: Puts = 33.8% → Some bearish sentiment in options flow, but not overwhelming. Trade Setups 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): * Entry: Above $540 with strong volume. * Target: $545, then $550 (Gamma Squeeze Potential). * Stop Loss: Below $535. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play): * Entry: Below $535. * Target: $527 or $520 (Put Support). * Stop Loss: Above $540. Final Thoughts * QQQ remains bullish but is testing key resistance at $540. * A breakout above $540 could lead to a strong rally toward $545-$550. * A failure to hold $535 might trigger a pullback to $527 or lower. * Best Trade Approach: Monitor price action at $540 for a breakout confirmation or $535 for a breakdown before entering a trade. 🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BullBearInsights
Weekly Market Outlook: February 18 – 21, 2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation: President Donald Trump has signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday, February 18, 2025. 🇷🇺🇺🇸 Diplomatic Talks: Senior U.S. and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18 to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and explore potential resolutions. 🇩🇪🗳️ German Snap Election: Germany is set to hold a snap election this week, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to perform well, potentially influencing European markets. 📊 Key Data Releases: Tuesday, Feb 18: 🇺🇸🏭 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Measures manufacturing activity in New York State. 🇺🇸🗣️ U.S. President Trump Speech (3:00 PM ET): Insights into potential policy directions and economic outlook. Wednesday, Feb 19: 🇺🇸🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Data on new residential construction projects. 🇺🇸📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting. Thursday, Feb 20: 🇺🇸📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Weekly data on unemployment claims. 🇺🇸🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Indicator of manufacturing sector health in the Philadelphia region. Friday, Feb 21: 🇺🇸🏭 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Preliminary data on manufacturing sector performance. 🇺🇸🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Reports on the number of previously owned homes sold. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$QQQ RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14 Last week was inflation data week and Monday and Tuesday we opened with a gap up and then stayed flat from there until CPI on Wednesday where we dropped down and filled the Monday gap and bounced on the 50 Day Moving Average. After CPI (which came in HOTTT) and the bounce on the 50Day up and past the next two resistance levels. Thursday was a big day, followed with a continuation upward to close the week just under previous ATH’s —— Watching just the 35EMA and the 30min 200MA we stayed bullish the entire week there (meaning 35EMA (red line), above the 30min 200MA (blue line)) —- Stupid Willy reading overbought but no red signal line yet.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Is SOXL ever going to breakout...Have held long on SOXL for about 5.5 weeks now with an average price of $30. I identified a wedge alongside "hidden" divergence on the MACD on a weekly time scale but it's still been pretty much in the same zone/area of consolidation. When the DeepSeek news broke out, I was for sure ready to cut ties with this one since the Nasdaq was in a complete bloodbath but I gave it some room and glad to see it has been recovering OK for now. My original target for one is/was $40 but I'd consider taking it off the table if we saw $35+ again. We'll see how this week performs and watch for that gap being filled. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
AMEX:SOXL
by InternalTraderNYC
- Long QQQ Next Week: Targeting New Highs Amidst Market Volatili- Key Insights: QQQ demonstrates strong bullish momentum with potential to reach new highs if it remains above critical support levels of 533 and 530. Traders should focus on intraday patterns and be prepared for volatility due to mixed market signals, particularly from the IWM. Maintaining a watchful eye on macroeconomic news and sector performance will be crucial. - Price Targets: Next week targets are T1: 545, T2: 552. Stop levels are S1: 533, S2: 530. These levels are designed to safeguard long positions while capitalizing on upward movement. Recent Performance: QQQ has been trading at record highs, influenced largely by the strength of major tech stocks, while the overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with some divergence in index performance. - Expert Analysis: Analysts suggest that continued upward momentum in QQQ depends on holding above critical support. While bullish signals exist, caution is warranted given the contrasting performance of smaller caps. Investors should be discerning and ready for potential market pullbacks. - News Impact: QQQ's recent surge can be attributed to robust earnings reports and growth expectations from dominant technology firms. However, market fluctuations could arise from upcoming economic indicators and policy decisions from the Federal Reserve that warrant close attention.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
$SPY: price is heading up into resistance. Decision point.AMEX:SPY analyses are provided on three timeframes with the primary purpose of showing how simplicity & consistency may help to avoid mass media noise disruption and get a clear picture. Currently, we have uptrends on a monthly and weekly basis. Simply following all-new swings, forming higher highs or lower highs, and higher lows or lower lows, we can see what the price is doing in reality, not in our expectations or mass media expert expectations, a ka forecasts. This exercise is useful for training your eye and providing a clear answer: where the price is NOW. And where will the price be soon? First, it depends on deciding the exact timeframe, 1 sec, 1 min, 15 min, 4 hours, 1 day, 1 week, etc., and not to overthink things. It is funny, but not overthinking is not a very easy task, at least on my end. For this theoretical exercise, the most fun is happening on a daily basis. Monthly and weekly are the lenses that help to figure out what is going on on a daily basis. The more possibility (not probabilities) right now is that the price will continue to rise. The detailed analysis is on the charts. The sentiment data source is www.aaii.com And a cherry on the cake, we are in a very bearish environment right away, having a significant skew vs the historical average. Why does it matter? The answer is that when the sentiment is at its extremes, the move is likely to be in the opposite direction. I learned it by reading Twits by Linda B. Reschke, then checked on my own, and now I always keep an eye on this source. Stay profitable! No financial and investment advice here, only personal thoughts are provided for informational purposes only
AMEX:SPYLong
by ChartsPlusFun
SPY - 2 months CUP & HANDLE══════════════════════════════ Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot trading opportunities based solely on the development of CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS 🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝 ══════════════════════════════ Hello Traders ✌ After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that: - it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment; - since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant; - the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts; For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart. Thank you all for your support 🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER "A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist" ═════════════════════════════ ⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠ Breakout Area, Target, Levels, each line drawn on this chart and any other content represent just The Art Of Charting’s personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purposes. Therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Entry Point, Initial Stop Loss and Targets depend on your personal and unique Trading Plan Tactics and Money Management rules, Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk. ═════════════════════════════
AMEX:SPYLong
by TheArtOfCharting