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$SpySo I just wanted to focus on the next 2weeks of trading.. To summarize what I think will happened We make another high around 620 by End of this week. That high will most likely coincide either the Bill passing through senate or and the Non farm payroll coming out Thursday. Summer melt up seasonality is in progress. Historically the week of July 4th trades with really thin volume. Thin volume is hurts bears more than it does bulls. Imagine spy breaking back below 600 with only 50% of its normal volume (Won't happen). The week after this is the break between this quarter and the next Q3.. this is when I expect a corrective pullback to the 20sma or 605, they'll probably blame it on some Tariff July 9th related catalyst. 2nd week of July begins Q3 and the market will move up or down or earnings. From my experience, you rarely see Armageddon in the market before big tech earnings. So basically 620 this week at some point , 605 next week and from there Earnings season starts off with big banks. Some more trading advice I'd give is becareful with too far OTM weekly options, I expect at least 2 of these days will be terribly choppy. One of the main reasons I believe the market will now go higher is because of the index moves... of course you saw the how spy and Qqq made a V shape recovery, well the Dow jones and IWM are now catching up with their own V So if the Dow has 2-3% left to pump the Spy will atleast match that pump. This move could come next week or wait until the pullback and finish during earnings but it will come. I'll do a bigger picture and out look after next week's move. Some trade ideas I'll post here First one is NASDAQ:GOOGL Channel trade here.. I think early in the week googl heads to 181.50. If market melts up later in the week then googl could see 185.00.. but like I said this is a channel trade and the ultimate tgt is 190 ish . 2nd trade Tsla I think it's headed back to 300.00 or 200ema From there we will either bounce and make a Pennant or double top lower .. if you look, you'll see price has been bouncing of its 50sma for 2weeks now, so the short entry is below that Lastly, there is not enough volume to pump all stocks this week, so some will be red and some will be green.. to avoid longing or shorting the wrong one, have patience and wait 30min-1hour after the open for true direction before you trade .. Good luck
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
10
SPY ATH TARGET 650Trend: Strong bullish continuation. Price just broke above the key 610 level, entering a momentum phase toward the projected 650 target. Structure: SPY is trading inside a rising channel. The upper bound aligns with the 650 level, suggesting this is the next liquidity zone. Support Zones: 610: Now a critical support. If it holds, buyers remain in control. 580–560: First unfilled gap — a likely magnet if price dips. 540–530: Second unfilled gap — stronger support on deeper pullback. 500–480: Major demand block — structural bottom of the current rally. Moving Average (EMA): Price is trading above its EMA, confirming bullish momentum. Gaps: Two visible gaps remain open below, both likely to act as magnets if bulls lose momentum. 📈 Expected Range: Above 610 → Target: 650 Below 610 → Watch for gap fills at 580 and 540
AMEX:SPYLong
by alexpv73
TLT is currently in the Wyckoff accumulation phaseBased on the provided weekly and daily charts for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), here is a Wyckoff analysis and a potential trading strategy using a diagonal option spread. ### **Wyckoff Analysis of TLT** **Weekly Chart:** The weekly chart for TLT appears to be in the early stages of a potential **accumulation phase**. Here's a breakdown of the key price action in the context of Wyckoff principles: * **Selling Climax (SC):** The sharp sell-off culminating in the low around $83.30 can be interpreted as a Selling Climax. This is where the downward momentum peaks as panicked investors sell heavily. * **Automatic Rally (AR):** Following the SC, the price bounced to form a high. This rally is largely technical in nature as short-covering and bargain hunting come into the market. This helps to define the upper boundary of a potential trading range. * **Secondary Test (ST):** The subsequent decline from the AR to retest the area of the SC low is a Secondary Test. Ideally, this test occurs on lower volume than the SC, which would indicate diminishing selling pressure. From the chart, it appears there was a retest of the lows. Currently, the price action on the weekly chart suggests that TLT is in **Phase B** of accumulation. This phase is characterized by the "building of a cause" where the "smart money" is accumulating positions. Price action in Phase B can be volatile as it moves between the support established by the SC and the resistance of the AR. **Daily Chart:** The daily chart provides a more granular view and supports the accumulation thesis from the weekly chart. The recent price action on the daily chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, which can be interpreted as a **Sign of Strength (SOS)** within the larger accumulation structure. This suggests that demand is starting to overcome supply. ### **Trading TLT with a Bullish Diagonal Call Spread** Given the analysis that TLT is in a potential accumulation phase, a bullish long-term outlook is appropriate. A bullish diagonal call spread is a suitable strategy to capitalize on a potential gradual price increase while also benefiting from time decay. This strategy is also known as a "Poor Man's Covered Call" and involves: * **Buying a longer-dated, in-the-money (ITM) or at-the-money (ATM) call option.** This acts as a surrogate for owning the underlying ETF. * **Selling a shorter-dated, out-of-the-money (OTM) call option.** The premium received from selling this call reduces the cost of the long call and generates income. **How to structure the trade:** 1. **Long Call Selection:** * **Expiration:** Choose a longer-dated expiration, for instance, 4-6 months out, to give the accumulation and subsequent markup phase time to develop. * **Strike Price:** Select a strike price that is in-the-money or close to the current price of TLT (around $87.39). An ITM call will have a higher delta, meaning it will move more in line with the price of TLT. 2. **Short Call Selection:** * **Expiration:** Select a shorter-dated expiration, typically 30-45 days out. This allows for more frequent income generation as you can "roll" the short call to the next month as it expires. * **Strike Price:** Choose a strike price that is out-of-the-money. A good starting point would be a strike near a resistance level. Looking at the daily chart, a potential near-term resistance level might be around the $90-$92 area. **Example Trade (Illustrative Purposes Only):** * **Buy to open:** 1 TLT call option with an expiration 6 months from now and a strike price of $85. * **Sell to open:** 1 TLT call option with an expiration in 30 days and a strike price of $90. **Trade Management:** * **If TLT rallies towards the short call strike ($90):** You can choose to close the entire spread for a profit or roll the short call up and out to a higher strike and a later expiration to continue collecting premium. * **If TLT trades sideways:** The short call will lose value due to time decay (theta), and you can potentially buy it back for a lower price than you sold it for, or let it expire worthless. You can then sell another short call for the following month. * **If TLT declines:** The value of your long call will decrease, but this will be partially offset by the premium received from the short call. The risk is limited to the initial net debit paid to establish the position. > **Disclaimer:** This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. It is crucial to conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by KhanhC.Hoang
101 Next stop - ARKQ Cathy is HappyLet's analyze the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) with a focus on a "giant cup and handle" pattern and the MACD (8,13). As of Friday, June 27, 2025, at 10:26:18 PM PDT, here's a breakdown of ARKQ: **Current Price & Performance:** * **Last Price:** $88.34 (as of 4:00 PM ET on June 27, 2025) * **Today's Change:** Up $0.55 (0.63%) * **Previous Close:** $87.79 * **Today's Range:** $87.59 - $89.15 * **52-Week Range:** $48.25 - $89.15 (Today's high is the 52-week high for ARKQ, indicating a strong recent upward movement.) --- ### **Giant Cup and Handle Forming** A "Cup and Handle" is a bullish continuation pattern that typically forms over several months to over a year, making a "giant" one a long-term pattern. * **The "Cup":** A "U" shaped formation where the price declines, bottoms out, and then rises back to approximately the original level. The ideal cup has a smooth, rounded bottom (not a sharp "V"). * **The "Handle":** A smaller, shorter consolidation pattern that forms on the right side of the cup, typically with a slight downward drift, often resembling a flag or pennant. It should generally form in the top half of the cup. * **Breakout:** A decisive move above the resistance level created by the top of the cup and handle, on increased volume, confirms the pattern. **ARKQ and the Giant Cup and Handle:** ARKQ, like many growth and tech-focused ETFs, experienced a significant bull run into late 2021/early 2022, followed by a substantial pullback throughout 2022. It then began a recovery phase in late 2022/early 2023. * **The "Cup":** This pattern would likely be formed by ARKQ's peak in late 2021/early 2022 (around $90-$100), the subsequent decline through 2022 to its lows (around $30-$40), and the long, sustained recovery back towards its previous highs. This entire multi-year U-shaped recovery would constitute the "giant cup." Its recent move to a 52-week high of $89.15 suggests it has almost completed the right side of this cup, nearing the "rim" or previous high. * **The "Handle":** The "handle" would be a more recent, shorter consolidation that forms as ARKQ approaches that previous high. If ARKQ has been consolidating sideways or with a slight downward drift in the last few weeks or months (e.g., after hitting highs in the $80s and pulling back slightly before pushing higher again today), that could be the "handle" in formation. **Confirmation:** For this "giant cup and handle" to be confirmed, ARKQ would need to: 1. **Clearly form a handle:** A distinct period of consolidation (a few weeks to a few months) following the completion of the cup's right side, typically with decreasing volume. 2. **Breakout:** A decisive move above the "rim" of the cup (the previous high, which is also the 52-week high of $89.15, or even higher, if considering a very long-term cup from earlier all-time highs), on strong, increasing volume. **Significance:** A giant cup and handle, when confirmed, is a powerful bullish continuation pattern. The price target is typically measured by the depth of the cup projected upwards from the breakout point. Given the depth of ARKQ's potential cup (from highs around $90-$100 to lows around $30-$40), the projected upside could be substantial, potentially indicating new all-time highs well beyond its current range. --- ### **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) (8,13)** You've requested custom MACD settings (8,13). This makes the indicator more sensitive to recent price movements compared to the standard (12,26) settings. * **MACD Line:** (8-period EMA of Close - 13-period EMA of Close) * **Signal Line:** 9-period EMA of the MACD Line * **MACD Histogram:** MACD Line - Signal Line **Interpretation of MACD:** * **MACD Line above Signal Line:** Bullish momentum. * **MACD Histogram positive and increasing:** Strengthening bullish momentum. * **MACD Line below Signal Line:** Bearish momentum. * **MACD Histogram negative and decreasing:** Strengthening bearish momentum. **Current ARKQ MACD (8,13) State:** ARKQ has recently reached a new 52-week high, indicative of strong upward momentum. * It's highly probable that the **MACD Line (8,13) is currently above its Signal Line**. This indicates **bullish momentum**. * The **MACD Histogram is likely positive**, and given today's slight gain to a new 52-week high, it might still be increasing or holding strong, showing sustained buying pressure. **Confluence:** A strong, positive MACD (8,13) would provide bullish confirmation for the potential cup and handle pattern. If the MACD maintains its bullish stance as the handle forms (perhaps showing a slight cooling during the handle's drift but staying positive), and then accelerates again on a breakout, it would be a very strong signal. --- ### **Overall Outlook for ARKQ:** ARKQ is showing compelling technical formations. * The **"giant cup and handle" pattern** appears to be in an advanced stage, with the ETF having completed much of the "cup" by nearing its previous multi-year highs. The formation of the "handle" now becomes critical. If it forms constructively and leads to a breakout, it signals a significant bullish continuation with substantial upside potential. * The **MACD (8,13)** is likely confirming the recent bullish momentum, with the MACD line above its signal line and a positive histogram. This supports the idea that buying pressure remains strong. **Considerations:** * **ETF Holdings:** ARKQ is an actively managed ETF. Its performance is tied to the performance of its underlying holdings in autonomous technology and robotics. Understanding the outlook for these sectors is crucial. * **Volume:** As with any chart pattern, volume confirmation is key. Strong volume on a breakout from the "handle" would lend significant credibility to the pattern. * **Risk:** While the cup and handle is bullish, no pattern is guaranteed. Monitor for potential failures of the pattern (e.g., breakdown below the handle's support). This analysis is based on your provided pattern and indicator, combined with current market data. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own thorough fundamental and technical research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CBOE:ARKQLong
by CheeseburgerLover
Rhythm of the Great BearUndead Bear Captain's Log April 27, 2025 Will make one final attempt to chart and navigate the murky waters of the Great Bear. XLF may be a good candidate with still distinct waves, like XRT, XLRE and XHB. All other sectors, especially SPY are skewed by tech, same-day options and basically unchartable. I call this map the rhythm of the great bear. It is for my own use, as I like attuning to the waves of the great ocean, the beat of music or the rise and fall of civilizations. XBI is the nascent child, XLK the moody teen, SPY the resilient adult and DJI the steady grandparent. In markets, I think it is the child that shows the way to growth and decline. XBI shows signs of the Great Bear, having stumbled through an initial decline in 2023 and crawled its way through 2 years of recovery, the so called running flat correction. This market has thrived through over a decade of MMT, pummeled briefly by covid, only to receive the greatest injection of digital print since all of history. The little people are suffering the effects of inflation everywhere. Wages have barely budged since 20 years ago, yet housing prices have quadupled, automobiles and everything else Mom & Dad can think of have at least doubled. People are literally crumbling toward the lowest rung of Maslow's hierachy, able only to take care of basic needs. Beneath the streets of folks struggling to survive, we can uncover that the housing market existing home sales is basically at its lowest point since the GFC and banks are still struggling to manage the bond sell-off over the last 5 years. On top of this decade of MMT mess, the half sane President has declared cold war on basically the entire world. He points the finger of USA's problems at everyone exept USA and magically believes USA can somehow snap factories and skilled workers into existence out of thin air to make America great again without its friends, partners (and slaves). Yet 160 year East-West civilization cycles say otherwise. In fact it points to power eventually returning to the Eastern world. The sudden viscious market decline followed by Trump backpedalling and market rebound are strong signs of an initial wave 1, wave 2. It can wake up the bear. It can thunder the quake. It can bring on the tsunami where 15-25 such waves can arrive at an unimaginable velocity. When such waves arrive, what is any man, woman, child to do? Who can ride such waves without a chart? The waters will flip ships, smash hulls, rip entire masts off of galleons. Yet, with a proper chart, one could ride it like a pirate and secure the ONE PIECE. Arr, arr, I sail into the storm, full of courage, a wee bit of wit, and an insane amount of folly!!! Arr, arr, this be the end of the captain's log.
AMEX:XLFShort
by supere
2
IBIT – Bull Flag + Trend-Based Fib Targets Lined Up🔍 Price Action Setup IBIT is forming a tight bull flag just beneath key resistance at $64 after a strong impulsive move off the $42.75 base. Structure remains bullish with price holding above the 20 EMA, and volume compression setting the stage for a breakout. 📈 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions If this flag breaks, here's how the upside unfolds based on the trend-based Fib extension: 1.27 – $82.50 1.382 – $85.75 (Measured Move Target) 1.50 – $89.50 1.618 – $93.00 (Full Extension) These levels align with the prior flagpole projection and market structure above. If bulls step in on volume, $85.75 becomes the logical first destination. 🌊 ETF Inflows Confirm the Narrative IBIT has pulled in roughly $3.3B in recent inflows, leading the pack during a 12-day net inflow streak across spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutions are clearly still positioning, and that's reflected in the tape. Tuesday alone brought $436M+ into spot Bitcoin ETFs. ₿ BTC Leading the Way Bitcoin is holding strong above prior resistance and pushing higher. IBIT looks like it’s just waiting on a breakout confirmation to follow. 📌 Key Trade Levels Breakout Trigger: Close above $64 Target Zone: $85.75 first, then extended to $93.00 Invalidation: Break below $56 structure — 🧠 This is not financial advice — just a look at structure and flow through the DC Trading lens. 📲 Follow the journey on IG: @dc_trading_journey
NASDAQ:IBIT
by DC_Trading_Journey
June 27th, 2025 - Morning BriefFriday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline. Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SP:SPX and CME_MINI:NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NASDAQ:NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NYSE:NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure. But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching. Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino. Here’s where things stand: - OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns) - BLACKBULL:WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos) - BINANCE:BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream) - CME_MINI:ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex. Been building something for US swing traders — if you’re one, I’d really appreciate your feedback. Free to test, link in Bio
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Global Markets Bet on Dovish Fed Pivot Markets are pricing in more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—approximately 125 bps by end-2026—due to speculation that President Trump may replace Chair Powell with a dovish successor. Investors caution excessive political influence could jeopardize Fed independence 🏦 Fed Governor Warns of Tariff Risks Fed’s Michael Barr emphasized that tariffs could trigger inflation and unemployment, reinforcing the Fed’s wait‑and‑see approach. Expect modest rate cuts later this year, contingent on economic signals 📉 Q1 GDP Revised Sharply Lower First-quarter U.S. GDP was downgraded to an annualized contraction of 0.5%, a deeper fall than previously reported. The revision underscores drag from weak consumer spending and trade disruptions 📃 Trade Deficit Widens in May U.S. goods trade deficit expanded 11% to $96.6 billion, driven by a $9.7 billion drop in exports. Trade gap dynamics remain a headwind for growth projections 🐘 JPMorgan Sees Stagflation Risks JPMorgan revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1.3%, warning that tariff-related “stagflationary impulse” is complicating growth and inflation outlooks—and making recession risks more real 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 27: 8:30 AM ET – U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June (Prelim.) Expected to reflect growing economic caution. The index fell in May; traders will watch for further weakness. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Stress Test Results Fed to release annual bank stress-test outcomes. Strong results support financial stability, while weak spots could unsettle markets ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #macro #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Chart Pattern Analysis Of MSTZ From K1 to K3, It is a bullish three soldiers advancing pattern, But unfortunately, it still failed to close upon a nearest resistance. K3 start with a bull gap and break up a downtrend line of a large scale consolidation range. If the following candles break up the resistance or consolidate around it, It will be a good place to buy it there. On the other hand, If the following candles successfully retest the downtrend line, It is also a good place to buy it then. Long-4.75/Stop-4.35/Target-10
CBOE:MSTZLong
by nothingchangehere
SPY Prediction (with 10% conviction)Now that we are at ATH, whats going to happen next? Superimposition of 2018 bear market over today's timeline shows we rally to $625 after which we get a correction to $573. Rally continues onwards until we get another plandemic🤞 In 2018 we had tariffs 1.0 in addition to FED QT. This time we have tariffs 2.0 (or do we?) and a confused FED which probably makes the case for the same level of FUD. Economic and political environment changes but human behoviour does not change, altlest not like moores law. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
AMEX:SPY
by Alternative_Cerebral
2