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MSTX T Minus 10.9.8. Dropping like a 100lb weight Bear Put Spread Strategy for MSTX Current Price: US$91.55 Signal: Neutral with a slight bearish bias due to mixed technical indicators. Leg 1: Buy/Sell: Buy Call/Put: Put Strike Price: US$90.00 Expiry Date: 13-Dec-2024 Premium: US$1.23 Implied Volatility: 2.13% Stop Loss: US$1.10 Take Profit: US$1.35 Leg 2: Buy/Sell: Sell Call/Put: Put Strike Price: US$80.00 Expiry Date: 13-Dec-2024 Premium: US$0.43 Implied Volatility: 2.43% Stop Loss: US$0.38 Take Profit: US$0.47 Probability of Profit: Approximately 57.9% Rationale: The technical analysis of MSTX reveals a mixed outlook. Oscillators indicate a predominantly neutral stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being unavailable, while the Stochastic RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest holding positions. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 31.63 indicates a potential trend, recommending a buy. However, momentum indicators like the MACD and Momentum Indicator signal selling pressure. Moving averages present a conflicting picture, with short-term averages (10 and 20) indicating sell signals, while longer-term averages (30 and 50) suggest buying. The Ichimoku Cloud also indicates a buy signal, suggesting potential upward movement. Overall, the mixed signals suggest caution, leaning towards a hold recommendation with a slight bullish bias due to the ADX and longer-term moving averages. Catalyst: No specific catalyst identified, but the mixed technical indicators suggest potential volatility. This strategy aims to capitalize on a potential decline in MSTX's price, while limiting risk through the spread.
NASDAQ:MSTXShort
by CapitalGainz33
Why BATT Could Be A Great ETF To Buy & HoldHere I have AMEX:BATT Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF on a Multi-Timeframe Analysis with a Monthly & Weekly Chart! Technicals: Starting with the Monthly Chart, taking the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the All Time Low @ $5.91 to the All Time High @ $20.78, we see that the Selling Pressure is waning with the Price Exhaustion happening in the Fibonacci 78.6% - 88.6% "Kill Zone" Range from ( $9.09 - $7.61 ) -Bears are losing grip on the asset Zooming down to the Weekly where Price has visited the Kill Zone, we can see a ICT Concept Method called the Bullish Order Block taking place! After Price found Support, Price created a New Swing Low Breaking Sellside Liquidity, then shortly after, Breaking Structure again while surpassing the Swing High! -The Week Starting Monday, 29th of July 2024 creates the Bullish Order Block we should suspect Price to revisit before continuing its Uptrend behavior. -This High of the Weekly candle sits right at the Upper Limits of the Support Zone and at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level! **Price also could potentially make a deeper Retracement to the 61.8% Level to visit the LH it created before Breaking up through the Support Zone! -Will be looking for Buy Entries in the ( $8.96 - $8.67 ) Range! Fundamentals: Lithium Stocks hit alot of hype in 2023 with the expectations of the EV Industry being our Near-Future way of transportation as a move toward a greener way of living! EV sales wax and wane but as time as gone on, the look for the essential metal and mineral components needed for this industry to boom has began to fill as we are finding more and more vast and rich deposits of Lithium and other Rare Earth Minerals! -https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:e90ae995b094b:0-bullish-views-power-long-term-lithium-etf-prospects/ With that, EV Demand will come -https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:5ead3a15a094b:0-arkansas-may-be-sitting-on-19m-tons-of-lithium-amid-rising-demand-for-ev-batteries-how-to-invest-in-what-elon-musk-calls-the-new-oil/ ** Once Price goes Bullish, I have upcoming Areas of Value that it may contend with on the way up!
AMEX:BATTLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
Why SCHD Could Be a Quick Win for Savvy Scalpers Eyeing Upside As always, we like to keep it clean and simple, with technicals and analysis that's easy to see and understand. Let's get into it: The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) has recently experienced a downturn, but several factors suggest a near-term upward reversal: Technical Indicators: 1. SCHD's 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are $27.95 and $26.79, respectively, with the current price above both, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend 2. StochRSI oversold on mult timeframes 3. Reached limit of reversal move after a Wave 5, which can act as near-term support Recent Developments: Dividend-paying stocks, including those in SCHD, have faced challenges due to volatility in the 10-year Treasury yield. However, with expectations of more stable interest rates, dividend-focused investments like SCHD could become more attractive. Investor interest in dividend-paying equity ETFs has increased, with inflows more than doubling over the past month. This heightened demand could positively impact SCHD's price. We see a near-term reversal to the $28.80 area -- a $0.50/share increase from current levels . Be alert. Trade green.
AMEX:SCHDShort
by JC7USA
QQQ: TA with Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels and Price Action1. Key Levels Identified: * Highest Positive NETGEX (Call Resistance): $530 * This level indicates significant call interest. If the price approaches this level, it could act as resistance due to hedging-related activity by options market makers. * HVL (Hedging Volatility Level): $521 * A key pivot area where hedging activity is concentrated. The price often consolidates or reacts near this level. * Put Walls: * 3rd PUT Wall: $515 (-32.07% Gamma Exposure) * A moderate support zone where put interest intensifies. Market makers may hedge around this level, reducing downside momentum. * 2nd PUT Wall: $505 (-47.53% Gamma Exposure) * A stronger support area. If breached, it may lead to higher volatility and stronger downward momentum. * 1st PUT Wall: $500 (-43.07% Gamma Exposure) * Acts as a critical support zone. Breaching this level could signal a bearish breakout. 1. Price Action: * The price is currently around $520, sitting near the HVL. This indicates a balancing point between bullish and bearish hedging flows. * The downward sloping trendline suggests a short-term bearish bias, with potential for further downside if the price breaks below $515. Technical Indicators Analysis: 1. MACD: * The MACD histogram is showing bearish momentum, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line. This supports a continuation of the bearish trend. 2. Stochastic RSI: * Oversold conditions suggest the possibility of a short-term bounce. Watch for crossovers to confirm any bullish reversal. 3. Trendlines: * The chart displays a descending trendline intersecting around $525. A break above this trendline could signal a bullish reversal. * Support trendline converges near $505, aligning with the 2nd PUT Wall. Options Strategy Plan: 1. Bullish Scenario: * If QQQ breaks above $525: * Call Option Entry: Strike price at $530, expiration within 1-2 weeks. * Target: $530 (resistance level). * Stop-Loss: $520. 2. Bearish Scenario: * If QQQ breaks below $515: * Put Option Entry: Strike price at $505, expiration within 1-2 weeks. * Target: $505 (support level). * Stop-Loss: $518. 3. Neutral/Hedging Play: * For range-bound movement between $515 and $525: * Iron Condor Strategy: * Sell a call at $530 and a put at $510. * Buy a call at $535 and a put at $505 to limit risk. Recommendation for Expiration Date: * Short-Term Expiry: Use 1-2 weeks for momentum-based trades, especially when targeting sharp moves near support or resistance levels. * Longer Expiry (2+ weeks): Ideal for breakout plays to allow time for the move to materialize. Summary: * QQQ is at a pivotal point near $520. Watch for a breakout above $525 for a bullish setup or a breakdown below $515 for bearish momentum. * Gamma levels provide clear support/resistance zones, enhancing precision in trade planning. * Use MACD and Stochastic RSI for confirmation of directional bias. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
2
Opening (IRA): IBIT January 17th 48 Covered Call... for a 46.16 debit. Comments: Adding to my IBIT position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of call side IV skew and to have the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 46.16/share Max Profit: 1.84 ROC at Max: 3.99% 50% Max: .92 ROC at 50% Max: 1.99% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out short call on break even or take profit test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO Jan 17th 66 Covered Call... for a 64.89 break even. Comments: With 42 DTE in the January monthly, adding a "rung" to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on at the 68, selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The ROC at max isn't stellar here with the usual metric I'm looking for being at least 2.0%. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 64.89/share Max Profit: 1.11 ROC at Max: 1.71% 50% Max: .56 ROC at 50% Max: .86% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test of my take profit at 65.45.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY Technical Analysis and Options Strategy with GEX GammaGamma Levels and Observations Using GEX Profile: The GEX Profile provides critical insights into the underlying price action by identifying gamma-related support and resistance zones. Here's a breakdown of the key levels derived from the GEX indicator: 1. Resistance Levels: * 610: Significant call gamma resistance. Price movement above this zone often requires increased buying pressure as market makers adjust their hedging positions to counterbalance gamma exposure. * 605: A pivotal resistance level where SPY struggled to break above. This area caps bullish momentum as market makers' hedging activities intensify to maintain stability. 2. Support Levels: * 600: A major put gamma support level. This zone tends to attract buying activity because market makers may adjust their hedging positions to provide stability as the price approaches. * 595: The next gamma-supported area below 600. This level acts as a secondary buffer, absorbing selling pressure as gamma exposure decreases. Price Action and Gamma Interaction: * Today’s price action showed a clear respect for the 600 gamma support, reflecting increased hedging activities by market makers. This level stabilized the price as it approached, attracting buying interest. * On the upside, 605 gamma resistance acted as a ceiling, showing stabilization from market makers' hedging adjustments. A break above this level may indicate reduced hedging pressure and a bullish shift. Options Strategy Plan: 1. Bullish Scenario: * Strategy: Vertical Call Spread * Setup: * Buy the 605 Call. * Sell the 610 Call. * Target: Profit from a move toward 610. * Risk Management: Close the position if SPY drops below 600. 2. Bearish Scenario: * Strategy: Vertical Put Spread * Setup: * Buy the 600 Put. * Sell the 595 Put. * Target: Gain from a decline toward 595. * Risk Management: Exit if SPY reclaims 605. 3. Range-Bound Scenario: * Strategy: Iron Condor * Setup: * Upper Range: Sell the 605 Call, Buy the 610 Call. * Lower Range: Sell the 600 Put, Buy the 595 Put. * Target: Profit from SPY staying between 600 and 605. * Risk Management: Adjust or close the trade if the price moves outside the range. Selecting the Best Expiration Date for Options: 1. Short-Term Trades: * If you anticipate a quick move (1-3 days), use weekly options (closest expiration) to benefit from higher delta sensitivity and lower upfront costs. * For instance: * Bullish Trade: Use the nearest Friday expiration for the 605/610 Call Spread. * Bearish Trade: Use the nearest Friday expiration for the 600/595 Put Spread. 2. Medium-Term Trades: * If you expect the move to play out over 1-2 weeks, select options expiring 7-14 days out. This helps balance theta decay with enough time for the move to develop. * Example: * Bullish: Buy the 605 Call Spread expiring next Friday. * Bearish: Buy the 600 Put Spread expiring next Friday. 3. Hedging or Longer-Term Views: * For broader market hedging or if you're less certain about timing, use monthly options (15-45 days out). These allow time for the trade to develop and reduce the impact of time decay. * Example: * Buy the 610 Call (bullish) or the 595 Put (bearish) expiring in the next monthly cycle. Projection: * Bullish Case: SPY breaks above 605, targeting 610 with momentum-driven buying. Reduced selling pressure above this level may support further upside. * Bearish Case: Failure to hold 600 could drive SPY toward 595, as hedging activities intensify to counter selling momentum. Hedging Explained in Context: Gamma hedging impacts price movements significantly. Market makers adjust their positions based on gamma exposure: * At positive gamma levels like 605, market makers sell into strength, stabilizing price movements. This creates resistance. * At negative gamma levels like 600, market makers buy into weakness, supporting the price and reducing volatility. These dynamics allow traders to anticipate where market makers might influence price action. Trading Plan for Tomorrow: 1. Bullish Approach: * Look for a sustained move above 605 with increased volume. * Target: 610. * Stop-loss: Below 603. 2. Bearish Approach: * Watch for a break below 600 with strong selling pressure. * Target: 595. * Stop-loss: Above 602. 3. Neutral Strategy: * If price consolidates between 600 and 605, consider range-bound strategies like an iron condor. Disclaimer: This technical analysis and options strategy are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Options trading carries significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 130/225 Short Put Vertical... for a 3.40 credit. Comments: Adding to my SMH position on weakness, but using a setup with a lower buying power effect (BPE). Here, I'm selling the 25 delta put and buying the put that is at a strike that is approximately one half the value of the short put strike to bring in the buying power effect by about half over going with a naked short put. The standalone 225 would cost about 221.54 to put on versus the 91.60 in buying power for this trade, with a resulting bump in ROC as a function of BPE. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 91.60 Break Even: 221.60/share Max Profit: 3.40 ROC at Max: 3.71% (versus 1.53% for the naked) 50% Max: 1.70 ROC at 50% Max: 1.86% (versus .77% for the naked) Naturally, the warts on this setup is that I remain subject to assignment risk at the 225 strike, so need to keep that in mind as I put on trades, since BP will have to be free in order to accept assignment of a one lot at 225.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
GOLDETF - Looking for bullish continuation.N wave with E, V, N & NT projection. The current price just crossed above the Kumo suggesting a bullish trend. A golden cross just occurred, further supporting bullish sentiment. The overall structure within the cloud shows potential for continued upward movement. Recent volume trends indicate increasing interest, particularly on upward days, which suggests strong buying pressure. Enter a long position around 3.71, ideally after a confirmed break above the NT level (3.74) with strong volume. If a pullback occurs, consider an entry around 3.60, where the price has previously found support. Set a stop-loss at 3.50, which is below the recent swing low, to limit potential losses. Continuously monitor external factors such as gold prices, macroeconomic indicators, and geopolitical events, as they significantly impact the gold market. Watch the volume closely to confirm breakouts; increasing volume on upward movement will help validate trade decisions. Be prepared to adjust stop-loss levels as the price moves in favor of the position to secure profits while managing risks effectively. Note: 1. Analysis for education purposes only. 2. Trade at your own risk.
MYX:GOLDETFLong
by mg6112
It’s a miracleIt must be a miracle to get gifted 10X the shares, right before the underlying gets included in the QQQ. It’s a one-two punch. Maybe we won’t see MSRU/MSTR parity afterall, because MSTU will keep splitting shares in order to facilitate the options, which just came online a week or so ago. This is just getting started. There’s a gap below, which we hope to not revisit on a 51% down day, lest this whole position evaporate in a Mandelbrot fractal of options implosion. I’m staying long and looking for $10,000MSTR. Yes, I’m the first one to call for $10,000 MsTR
CBOE:MSTULong
by Shammus01
4
HLAL - Looking for potential bullish sentiment The price is situated above the Kumo, indicating a bullish trend overall. The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. However, the recent action shows the price attempting to break past the previous high around $53.00, which has acted as resistance. Recent volume spikes suggest increased interest around the current price levels. A sustained increase in volume is essential for confirming breakout movements. Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position at or above $52.66 (NT level) with confirmation of a break above this point and strong volume. Additional Entry: If a pullback occurs, look for a buy at $52.30, where support can potentially hold up. Place a stop-loss at $51.50, just below the previous swing low and below the Kumo, to protect against unfavorable moves. Monitor economic news that could influence market sentiment. This strategy allows participation in potential upside while managing risk based on key support and resistance levels observed in the chart. Note: 1. Analysis for education purposes only. 2. Trade at your own risk.
NASDAQ:HLALLong
by mg6112
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 12-11: Flat Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will slide downward after the CPI data came in as expected. I believe the markets are going to roll into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the next 5+ days - setting up a big potential downward price swing (the Anomaly Event) before the end of 2024. Gold is moving into a CRUSH pattern today. We may see a very big price move (I suspect higher) today as traders move to hedge weakness and market concerns globally. Bitcoin recently set a new lower low, showing us that the dominant trend is Bearish. Bitcoin set up another potential Excess Phase Peak pattern, totaling four current Excess Phase Peak patterns in this broad sideways consolidation range. The breakout, either to the upside or downside, in Bitcoin could be very explosive. Remember, we continue to trade into a low liquidity price trend throughout the end of 2024. So stay cautious and stay aware of the risks for the Anomaly Event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
AIPIExploring the AI Covered Call ETF: AIPI Let’s take a look at AIPI, a covered call ETF that focuses on stocks in the AI sector and trades on the US stock exchange. If you're analysing the chart, you might notice that dividend indicators don’t appear. That’s because this ETF doesn’t technically pay dividends. Instead, it collects dividends from its holdings, pays taxes on them, and distributes the rest to investors as taxable income. This is important to understand for tax planning, as it may impact how you report income depending on where you live. The Strategy Behind AIPI Being a covered call ETF, it limits your upside, especially in strong bull markets. However, the fund managers often adapt by writing covered calls at higher target prices when markets are bullish, capitalizing on demand for options. Most option buyers lose, which benefits the ETF's income strategy. If you dive into the distributions and run the numbers, you’ll see that AIPI has been yielding approximately 30% annually. It’s a strong performer, but as with any investment, diversification is key. You might want to start small—maybe one or ten shares—and hold it for a few months to see how it performs for you. Research the Components When you look at AIPI, understanding its holdings is crucial. While the components might not show up directly on TradingView, a quick Google search can reveal the ETF's portfolio. You can also use benchmarks like SMH (a semiconductor ETF) as a rough gauge, but digging into the individual stocks within AIPI will give you a clearer picture of its trajectory. A Trading Strategy Idea Here’s a potential strategy for those interested in short-term moves: Buy before the ex-dividend date. Hold to collect the distribution. Set a limit order at your purchase price or slightly higher to sell after the payout. This approach could net you around 30%/12 per month, depending on timing and execution. Of course, this requires monitoring and is not guaranteed. Other Covered Call ETFs to Explore While AIPI is exciting, there are other options out there depending on your region and goals. For example: On the TSX (Canadian markets): BANK or UMAX, which focus on Canadian stocks or are hedged to the Canadian dollar. On the US markets: QDTE, a weekly payout ETF. Run the math on annual distributions and compound that over time. If you’re young, this can be a powerful strategy for long-term growth. Final Thoughts Covered call ETFs like AIPI aren’t a secret ATM, and you shouldn’t expect them to churn out cash indefinitely. However, they can be a great addition to a diversified portfolio, especially for income-focused investors. I personally own AIPI and think it’s flying under the radar. Many websites don’t display full annual gains until the ETF has traded for at least a year, so it might not yet be on everyone’s radar. Do your research, calculate potential returns, and explore different strategies to see what works for you!
ALong
by AnotherBrian