Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📊 Core Inflation Edges Higher
May’s core inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, casting uncertainty over the Fed’s timeline for rate cuts. While headline CPI sits at 2.3%, the resilience in underlying prices complicates policymakers’ projections for later this year
💵 Weak Dollar, Rising Rate-Cut Bets
Markets are reacting to “summertime data”—like the core CPI uptick—with renewed optimism. Traders now see up to 75 bps in Fed rate cuts later this year, while the dollar remains near 3½-year lows on concerns about Powell’s independence and trade developments
🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Resume
Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada restarted today, following Ottawa’s suspension of its digital-services tax. Progress toward a broader agreement could reduce tariff risk and offer further relief to risk assets
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, July 1:
All Day – U.S.–Canada Trade Talks
Markets will watch for updates on tariff resolution and broader trade deals. Any breakthrough could notably boost equities and improve trade sentiment.
10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
A below-50 reading again would reinforce the narrative of industrial weakness. A rebound could support equities and temper recession concerns
10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (May)
Still at elevated levels (~7.39 million in April), this metric assesses labor-market resilience. A decline could shift rate-cut expectations.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ETF market
XLV BreakoutThe XLV is breaking out after testing the $147-$148 area as resistance since late February. It finally broke out recently and came back down to retest the area as support yesterday, successfully. 1st Upside target is $157, followed by $162 for a secondary target. As markets are falling this week, healthcare typically does well in a bear market, so this breakout makes sense. Also, volume has gone up with the breakout, confirming price action
The Big Banks are in BIG TROUBLEAs you can see on this weekly chart, the XLF has been in this steady up trend since October 2023. It bounced off this upward slopping trendline 3 different times and then finally broke through it on the 4th hit, then came back up to test the underside of the trendline as resistance. It did get back above the trendline briefly last month, but it ended up being a bull trap as it fell back below the trendline and is now testing it as resistance once again and is currently being rejected. A Fibonacci retrace shows the 0.786 fib level also lines up with this area giving added confluence, as well as RSI divergence that I have highlighted. Massive Massive resistance in this area and so much room for potential downside. I see this trade as an extremely high probability of playing out. The options market agrees with me as well.
Preponderance of (or Preposterous?) Evidence
I was just proposing yesterday staying neutral in SPY (the S&P 500 ETF). The FOMC meeting today (Jun 18th) was a big-nothing burger (so far), which supports my (non)position, but we'll see. I will update that post when the time is right (ATH, 200dma, or bust).
Today, though, the IWM (the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF) and, surprisingly, a potential short position.
First, the IWM (see below) is overbought on a weekly chart, with the Stochastics being above 80 (more on Stochastics and weekly charts at a later date). For now, let's go with IWM being a little overbought, in the longer-term view.
Now, let's switch to the big daily chart at the top and look at the evidence for going short;
- IWM never really got above it's 200-day moving average (purple line),
- That same level was consistent with a lot of resistance ~213 (yellow circles),
- IWM has trailed this whole rally.
- It has broken and somewhat retested a trendline (light blue) from this most recent rally,
- It bounced off it's 61.8% Fibonacci level (orange line, not my favorite indicator for ETFs, but I often sneak a peek),
- It's at its previous resistance high around 209 (blue circles).
On the not-bearish side;
- The daily chart is less overbought (this has to happen on weakness, though),
- There's (a little) support at 199 but not really again until 172,
- I still feel like the All-Time-High (ATH) is a magnet for the S&P (but IWM has trailed).
That's (a lot) more (and better) points for being bearish.
I'll go short (via a ~90 day ITM put position*) if IWM breaks below 207.50, between that and 202. If it opens lower than 202, I'll wait for a pull-up.
The stop will be a close above the 200 day.
The target is 172 (the previous tariff low), but I will lighten/tighten up (by selling OTM puts* and/or moving stop down) as IWM drops (if it drops).
It may seem a bit duplicitous to be neutral on SPY while being bearish on IWM.
But sometimes you have to go with the Preponderance of Evidence (or will it prove Preposterous Evidence?)
An update will be coming.
*Sorry for bringing up options. One can just go short IWM. I will explain my option choice one day.
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-30-25 : Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to create a GAP at the open. It looks like the markets may attempt to move higher as the SPY is already nearly 0.35% higher as I type.
Last week was very exciting as we watched the QQQ and the SPY break into new All-Time Highs.
I suspect the markets will continue a bit of a rally into the early Q2 earnings season where retail traders attempt to prepare for the strong technology/innovation/AI earnings data (like last quarter).
I do believe this rally is due for a pullback. I've highlighted this many times in the past. Typically, price does not go straight up or straight down. There are usually multiple pullbacks in a trend.
So, at this point, the markets are BULLISH, but I still want to warn you to stay somewhat cautious of a pullback in the near future (maybe something news-related).
Gold and Silver should start to move higher over the next 5-10+ days, with gold trying to rally back above $3450. I see Gold in a solid FLAGGING formation that is moving closer to the APEX pattern.
Bitcoin is nearing a make-or-break volatility point. I see BTCUSD breaking downward, but it could break into a very volatile phase where it attempts to rally (with the QQQ through earnings), then collapse later in July. We'll see how things play out.
Remember, tomorrow morning I have a doctor's appointment. So I may or may not get a morning video done. FYI.
Get some today.
Market Update - 6/29/2025- Strong close on Friday especially in consumer related names
- Most excited about retail/consumer/DTC names, especialy NASDAQ:ODD , NASDAQ:NAGE , $YSG.
- AI names are back on the radar, and quantum computing has been for a while -> speculation money is back
- Breadth and market in general looks very constructive, so we will likely continue going higher
- Been very protective with my account, keeping losses below 0.1% as the market has been choppy since May 12
- However, if we start another leg higher, I'll go much more aggressive, maybe 0.5-1% of my account in strong names
SPY Rejected at Gamma Wall–Watch $610 Breakdown or $615 Reclaim🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment:
SPY closed Friday with a rejection off the Highest Positive Net GEX / Gamma Wall at $615, with sellers defending the upper structure near the 2nd Call Wall at $620.
Support now lies in the $608–$604 range, with $605.54 and $604.45 aligning with GEX magnets and prior structure. Below that, there’s a gap to the HVL zone near $599, and the gamma floor starts deep around $591, which is also defended by the 2nd and 3rd PUT Walls.
Implied Volatility Rank is 12.2, with IVX below average. This implies premium selling could be dominant unless we break key levels. Meanwhile, PUT flow dominates at 31.9%, showing a clear defensive posture by institutions.
🔧 Options Trade Setup (for Monday–Wednesday):
Bearish Setup:
If SPY confirms under $610, especially during the first hour Monday, it could trigger a fade toward $605 or even $599 HVL.
Consider a PUT debit spread like 610p/600p (Jul 3).
Stop out if price reclaims $613.50–$615 cleanly.
Bullish Setup:
If SPY holds $610 and reclaims $615 with force, it can squeeze into the GEX void toward $620–$622.
Consider a CALL debit spread like 615c/620c (Jul 3).
Stop if price breaks back under $610 with volume.
📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart):
We now have back-to-back CHoCHs printed below rising wedge structure, followed by a failed retest at the top. This is a textbook sign of exhaustion. The final BOS and CHoCH from Friday confirmed that buyers lost short-term control.
The current structure is rolling over with lower highs, and SPY is now trading inside a descending micro-channel after rejection at $615.
Volume picked up on the Thursday/Friday rejection, which adds weight to the downside scenario unless we open strong Monday.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$617.00 – Upper Gamma ceiling
$615.00 – Gamma Wall & recent supply zone
$613.50 – Mid-level rejection pivot
$610.00 – Structure support now under threat
$608.48 – Intraday gamma magnet
$605.54 / $604.45 – Strong confluence support zone
$599.49 – HVL target zone
$591.90 – Gamma floor if broader selloff triggers
✅ Thoughts and Monday Game Plan:
SPY looks vulnerable under $610 — this is the most important level to watch. If that breaks and holds below in the first 30–60 minutes, we likely fade to $605 or lower.
The ideal trade setup would be to short the retest of $610 from below, or buy PUTs on confirmed weakness into the gamma air pocket. Alternatively, wait for a high-volume reclaim of $615 to trade with the bulls, but until then, the path of least resistance is down.
Macro catalysts are light, but pre-holiday positioning could bring volatility — stay nimble.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and trade with a plan.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs
Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause
💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks
🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment
Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures
🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize
After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks
⚠️ July Risks Loom
The coming week will spotlight:
July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill
Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3
Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 30
9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity
📅 Tuesday, July 1
U.S. markets open, watch trade developments
📅 Wednesday, July 2
Global PMI readings released
📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day)
8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June)
8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June)
8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June)
These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis
IBIT: End of June/Beginning of July Weekly idea for IBIT.
BTC and this market as a whole is an interesting character.
The indicies and many other things, such as BTC, AMD etc. are all throwing top signals, specifically mean reverting signals (when using Pairs / Cointegration and Time series).
They have been for the last 1.5 weeks.
These signals have yet to be invalidated, they are only invalidated once they stop signaling or flip to bullish. So we are lingering on a potential for a larger pullback from where we are, and that extends to indicies such as NDX, SPX and BTC itself.
That said, its a bit trickier when we push into extreme greed where the market currently rests.
For IBIT and BTC, the outlook is on the bearish side; however, with some bullish continuation patterns (on the smaller timeframes) that bring us to some more immediate upside into Monday.
The expectation here is a move up to around 61. From there, if we see rejection we should be heading down to around 58.57.
The downside and upside targets are listed in the chart.
Its hard to play the PA in this market because its extreme greed that has a hallmark of random impulse selling and random rug pulls out of nowhere that complete in a day and lead to aggressive gapping up the next day. Its hard to really offer much insight in a safe fashion in this type of market.
However, the general "how its sposta work" is if we break over 61 and hold, we should be heading up to 63 ish range. Vs a 61 rejection or just hitting shy of 61 will bring us down to that 58 zone.
Not advice, its impossible to offer advice in these conditions anyway haha.
Safe trades!
Msty pull back/ dipMsty has a monthly dividend noted by the yellow vertical line. The ex dividend date typically drops, so buying at a favorable price before that ex date is crucial. The chart shows a double bottom followed by a strong bullish movement. This coming week will give a small pullback for a great buying opportunity prior to the dividend announcement ex date.
SPY Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 614.85 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 586.37
Safe Stop Loss - 631.68
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SpySo I just wanted to focus on the next 2weeks of trading..
To summarize what I think will happened
We make another high around 620 by End of this week. That high will most likely coincide either the Bill passing through senate or and the Non farm payroll coming out Thursday.
Summer melt up seasonality is in progress.
Historically the week of July 4th trades with really thin volume. Thin volume is hurts bears more than it does bulls. Imagine spy breaking back below 600 with only 50% of its normal volume (Won't happen).
The week after this is the break between this quarter and the next Q3.. this is when I expect a corrective pullback to the 20sma or 605, they'll probably blame it on some Tariff July 9th related catalyst.
2nd week of July begins Q3 and the market will move up or down or earnings. From my experience, you rarely see Armageddon in the market before big tech earnings.
So basically 620 this week at some point , 605 next week and from there Earnings season starts off with big banks.
Some more trading advice I'd give is becareful with too far OTM weekly options, I expect at least 2 of these days will be terribly choppy.
One of the main reasons I believe the market will now go higher is because of the index moves... of course you saw the how spy and Qqq made a V shape recovery, well the Dow jones and IWM are now catching up with their own V
So if the Dow has 2-3% left to pump the Spy will atleast match that pump. This move could come next week or wait until the pullback and finish during earnings but it will come.
I'll do a bigger picture and out look after next week's move.
Some trade ideas I'll post here
First one is NASDAQ:GOOGL
Channel trade here..
I think early in the week googl heads to 181.50. If market melts up later in the week then googl could see 185.00.. but like I said this is a channel trade and the ultimate tgt is 190 ish .
2nd trade
Tsla
I think it's headed back to 300.00 or 200ema
From there we will either bounce and make a Pennant or double top lower .. if you look, you'll see price has been bouncing of its 50sma for 2weeks now, so the short entry is below that
Lastly, there is not enough volume to pump all stocks this week, so some will be red and some will be green.. to avoid longing or shorting the wrong one, have patience and wait 30min-1hour after the open for true direction before you trade ..
Good luck
Small SLV positionTaking a small position in SLV here.
Long term looking at the gold to silver ratio trading around 90 If gold holds its grounds and silver plays catch up to a ratio of 70 even 60. I will be playing this position less about price and more about the ratio. If slv breaks all time high I will start selling regardless of price 20% week unless price is parabolic. Then selling will be 50% per week.
SPY ATH TARGET 650Trend: Strong bullish continuation. Price just broke above the key 610 level, entering a momentum phase toward the projected 650 target.
Structure: SPY is trading inside a rising channel. The upper bound aligns with the 650 level, suggesting this is the next liquidity zone.
Support Zones:
610: Now a critical support. If it holds, buyers remain in control.
580–560: First unfilled gap — a likely magnet if price dips.
540–530: Second unfilled gap — stronger support on deeper pullback.
500–480: Major demand block — structural bottom of the current rally.
Moving Average (EMA): Price is trading above its EMA, confirming bullish momentum.
Gaps: Two visible gaps remain open below, both likely to act as magnets if bulls lose momentum.
📈 Expected Range:
Above 610 → Target: 650
Below 610 → Watch for gap fills at 580 and 540