SPY – April 29, 2025 – Where to Next After This Push?Looking at SPY on the daily chart, it’s been riding a solid recovery wave from that sharp drop in early April. The last seven sessions have all printed green candles, showing persistent demand — but now we’re pressing right into the resistance zone around $554–$555, which aligns with the top of a previous range before that breakdown. The MACD histogram is still rising, showing bullish momentum, and the Stoch RSI is curled up in overbought territory. That’s not a sell signal on its own — it just means we’re extended and probably due for a cooldown.
When I zoom into the 1-hour chart, I notice something more subtle — SPY has been grinding up within a rising wedge. The candles are getting tighter near the top channel line, and volume is starting to fade a bit. That tells me we’re at a spot where either momentum explodes higher... or this move starts to stall out.
Now, overlay that with the GEX map, and here’s what jumps out:
* $555 is a thick cluster of Call Wall and Net GEX resistance — 44.9% of second-tier call positioning is stacked there.
* Above that, $557–$560 also has GEX walls, so upside beyond $555 could get sold into unless we see strong breakout volume.
* On the flip side, $547 and $545 remain the nearest areas of downside gamma support — price tends to bounce off these zones if tested.
My Thoughts: We’re reaching a point where the path of least resistance might shift. If bulls can decisively break above $555, especially with volume and a GEX unwind, there’s room toward $557–$560. But if we get stuck here and break below $552, I’d expect some profit-taking down toward $547–$545.
Trade Setups I’d Consider:
* Bullish Breakout Trade:
Above $555 with volume
Entry: $556
Target: $559–$560
Stop: $553.50
(Ideal with IV still relatively low and GEX unwinding from that zone)
* Fade Rejection Play (If SPY can’t clear $555):
Entry: ~$554 with reversal candle
Target: $547
Stop: $556
(Volume weakness + rising wedge breakdown would support this)
Options Thoughts:
* IVR is at 29, with IVx lower than the average — premium is relatively cheap.
* GEX shows 89% PUTs, which might seem bearish, but it also suggests market makers could support pullbacks for now.
* A $555C or $560C for this week is a high-risk chase — I’d only grab it if SPY breaks and holds above $555.
* Safer might be a put debit spread targeting $547 if the rising wedge breaks down.
This week could be pivotal. SPY has had a strong run, but now it’s flirting with a crowded options zone. Watch the $555 level closely — that’s where the real decision likely gets made.
ETF market
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Bessent's Trade Remarks Stir Markets
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the U.S.'s readiness for a significant trade deal with China, suggesting potential easing of the ongoing tariff war. His comments have heightened investor anticipation for developments in U.S.-China trade relations.
📉 China's Factory Activity Contracts
China's April manufacturing PMI is projected to fall below 50, indicating contraction, as recent U.S. tariffs impact production. This downturn raises concerns about global supply chain disruptions and economic slowdown.
💼 Major Earnings Reports on Deck
Investors await earnings from key companies including Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ), Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ), Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), and Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ). These reports will provide insights into how tech giants are navigating current economic challenges.
🏛️ Treasury's Borrowing Plans Under Scrutiny
The U.S. Treasury is set to release its quarterly refunding announcement, detailing borrowing plans amid economic uncertainties and the impact of recent tariffs. Market participants will closely analyze the guidance for implications on interest rates and fiscal policy.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 30:
📈 Q1 GDP (8:30 AM ET)
Forecast: 0.3% QoQ
Previous: 2.4%
Initial estimate of U.S. economic growth for Q1, reflecting the early impact of new trade policies.
📈 ADP Employment Report (8:15 AM ET)
Measures private sector employment changes, offering a preview of the official jobs report.
📈 Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET)
Assesses business conditions in the Chicago area, serving as an indicator of regional economic health.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPXL – Bullish Structure Reclaim in ProgressNice setup right here — this multi-timeframe view of SPXL (S&P 500 3x Bull ETF) paints a compelling story, especially with how clean that 0.382 level at $126.23 is holding across multiple frames.
⚡SPXL – Bullish Structure Reclaim in Progress
Don’t miss what’s happening on this chart.
📍Price just reclaimed the 0.382 Fib level ($126.23) and is now flirting with resistance at $128.01, right under the 0.5 zone ($138.27) on the higher time frame.
👁 Here’s what I’m watching:
4H shows bullish continuation and stair-stepping toward the diagonal resistance.
15D and 4D show clean higher lows forming.
Macro support is locked in between $115.84–$122.02, giving us a nice demand zone.
⚠️ $138.27–$150.30 is the next key region — and if this momentum holds, we may see a full retrace back to the previous high ($189.26) long-term.
🎯 Trade plan:
Holding above $126.23 keeps this bullish.
If we retest $122–$115 and bounce, it could offer a high-R setup.
📚 Remember: zooming out brings clarity. Structure leads, candles follow.
XLV Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042925Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 135/61.80%
Chart time frame: C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
$QQQ Inverse H&S ready to GO!NASDAQ:QQQ
We’ve spotted an Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout on the 1-hour chart, and we’re currently in the retest phase.
- Measured Move (MM): $483.55
- Measured Timeframe (MT): May 1st @ 7 PM
Let’s see if we can maintain momentum tomorrow and steer clear of any unexpected news or market shocks tonight.
Not financial advice
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 29 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 29, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Sub R/S: An Area where price action could happen.
SPY bear market?The causes of a bear market often vary, but in general, a weak or slowing or sluggish economy, bursting market bubbles, pandemics, wars, geopolitical crises, and drastic paradigm shifts in the economy such as shifting to an online economy, are all factors that might cause a bear market.
One definition of a bear market says markets are in bear territory when stocks, on average, fall at least 20% off their high. But 20% is an arbitrary number, just as a 10% decline is an arbitrary benchmark for a correction. Another definition of a bear market is when investors are more risk-averse than risk-seeking. This kind of bear market can last for months or years as investors shun speculation in favor of boring, sure bets.
SPY macro levels:
resistance: 613
pivot: 480
support: 348
SPY/QQQ NQ/ES 29 de Abril 2025Market Outlook (QQQ / NQ Analysis)
📅 Date: April 29, 2025
🕰 Timeframe: 30-minute
📈 Asset: Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) / NQ Futures
📊 Gamma Reference: SpotGamma levels with Zero Gamma & Put/Call Walls
🧠 Key Levels & Price Map
Level Type QQQ Price NQ Equivalent Comment
Call Wall (3) 478 19760 / 19800 🔼 Target 6 - Bullish Exhaustion
Target Long 477 19720 🔼 Target 5
Call Wall / RB Head 475 19620 🔼 Target 4 / High Confluence
Call Wall 472 19500 🔼 Target 3
RB Bottom 470.89 — Intermediate Resistance
Put Wall (1) 470 19420 🔼 Target 2 (bullish if broken)
Fib 0.5 468.78 — Reversal Zone
Put Wall (2) 467 19340 🔽 Target 1 - Short Bias Begins
Put Wall (3) 465 19220 🔽 Target 3 - Strong Bearish Zone
📉 Gamma & Sentiment Context
Zero Gamma: At 468 – market may be more volatile below this level.
Vol Trigger: At 467 – below this level, dealers may hedge by selling, increasing downside pressure.
Put Walls: Act as potential support or reversal zones (465, 467, 470).
Call Walls: Act as resistance or bullish break levels (472, 475, 478).
🧭 Possible Scenarios
📈 Bullish Path
If price breaks above 470, next long target is 472, then 475 (high confluence with RB Head and Call Wall).
Above 475, potential acceleration toward 478–479 (high call gamma zone).
📉 Bearish Path
Rejection at 470–472 could lead to a retest of 467, then 465.
Below 465, expect a push toward 19300–19220 NQ, aligning with the lower Put Walls.
MSTU (T-REX 2× Long MSTR Daily)Chart targets
Support at the Ichimoku Kumo top (~ 7.40 – 7.50) on 1 H & daily – this is your “buy zone.”
Initial upside to 8.10–8.30 — where yesterday’s 5 min candles peaked and the daily cloud resistance sits.
Secondary target ~ 9.00 — prior swing high from last December.
CSP entries (May 16)
Sell the 7.50 puts CSP's
Only do this if MSTU holds 7.40–7.50 on an intraday pullback.
Keep a stop if price closes below 7.30 on 30 min.
Alternatively, stagger 7.25 & 7.00 strikes to pick up extra premium if you want deeper support.
MSTR (MicroStrategy) – Earnings on May 1
Date: May 1, 2025
Street consensus: +$0.06 EPS vs prior miss of –$3.03.
Social sentiment: extremely polarized – Bitcoin bulls are hopeful a beat will turbo-charge the stock, but skeptics point to ongoing cash burn and debt load.
Plan:
Stay size-light into the print.
Look for a volatility crush post-earnings to sell short-dated calls (or buy deep ITM CSP) if you’re neutral-to-bullish.
If they beat and BTC holds above 95 K, MSTR could rip back toward its January highs near $540 – but that’s a multi-day swing, not today’s game.
Risk Management:
MSTU CSP: don’t sell more than 1/2 your normal size—earnings skew implied vol across the board.
News watch: any Tweet from Michael Saylor or a surprise Bitcoin ETF update can blow these levels out in minutes.
Leaving Breadcrumbs For A Swing Or Setting A Trap?In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases and large cap earnings should energize the market. While “C” waves are not required to meet specific sub-wave retracements, and can go straight to their targets without a significant pullback, we should still be prepared for the possibility of being faced with market whiplash. Taking all of this into account, I think there could be a pullback - especially after noticing an important clue right in front of me.
AMEX:SPY has been rising higher for the last five sessions in a jerky uptrend from last week’s lows and is close to filling a gap/imbalance at the $555 level on the daily chart. There is also a gap from $529-$534, however the price is much closer to filling the upper gap.
Other things I’m taking note of on the daily chart are the declining volume and a MA cross confirmation. The moving averages I’m using here are HMA (13; pink) EMA (34; yellow) and SMA (200; green), and I have found the Hull Moving Average crossing the Exponential Moving Average to be a fairly reliable indicator of a reversal. HMA will cross up on Tuesday if the price stays above the EMA.
For a different perspective, the 1000R ($10) chart shows the price action a little more smoothly. I noticed that for the month of April, each time the price swung lower, it did so by around $35. If it is assumed that this pattern continues for one more swing lower in what would be wave (b) of C, the next question would be: to which retracement level it would go?
There are a lot of people on the boards who think the price will move lower on Tuesday. If the price were to fall from around Monday’s close of $550, a $35 drop would take the price back to around $515, which would result in an approximately 80% retracement of wave (a). There is nothing wrong with this, and the price could reverse and extend to $580 from there, however I think such a deep retracement into wave (a) is the less likely scenario since the goal of this larger corrective wave is to keep the momentum moving higher to sell before the market tanks. I still charted it above to show what that would look like.
Alternatively, I am expecting SPY to move higher on Tuesday and pull back Wednesday and Thursday to continue printing what appears to be clean and proportional movements here in the first major corrective wave of the bear market.
The week ahead will have several events that could determine the market’s direction. The most important news should come from GDP and Core PCE data being released before the open on Wednesday. Regardless of how the market reacts, we can assume with relative confidence that the news will contribute to a large movement in price. Since I’m suggesting a $35 move down will happen at some point, I am anticipating Wednesday will start this movement.
Above the $555 gap there is an order block that the price should be gravitating towards. This would be an ideal area to absorb buy orders before SPY gets sent down. Taking an educated guess, $565 could be a key level that marks the end of wave (a). A $35 reduction from there would see the price retrace 61.8% (0.382 level on the chart) to $530. Since there is another gap around this level, it should be a logical area for the price to move next before beginning its final rise to around $580.
…
This idea makes more assumptions than my last one, so please trust your own instincts and form your own opinions. The market can be unpredictable, so patterns can fail at any time. This is why it is important to stay vigilant.
With that being said, I expect Tuesday to be another low volume day that could take the price in any direction; including sideways. Since Wednesday’s data should be a major driving force for price activity this week, it is important to assess which level the market is targeting just before the news comes out. We’ll see what happens, but I think institutions are going to look to prolong this corrective wave while they still can and offload shares at a good price, because the next time this sells off it will go much lower.
I appreciate all of the feedback I received on my last post, and if you enjoyed this one I’d love to know what you think. Good luck to all.
Volatility Setup Likely: VIX Breakout + QQQ Rejection = Risk Summary:
We now have alignment between two key charts:
🔹 VIX has broken major resistance with large institutional call buying
🔹 QQQ is facing trendline resistance with weakening momentum.
The setup points to a potential volatility surge + tech pullback over the next 1–3 weeks.
📉 QQQ Technical Breakdown:
QQQ is stalling under descending resistance from the February highs.
Friday’s candle closed just under the downtrend line, with volume tapering off — a classic exhaustion signal.
Multiple resistance zones cluster between 474–485, making this a high-friction zone.
RSI is rolling under 55, stalling near its last bear rejection zone.
Price is still trapped below the 100 EMA and 50 EMA, suggesting no clear bullish breakout yet.
⚠️ Key danger: If QQQ fails to reclaim 482–485, it risks reversing sharply toward 458–460, then possibly 440.
📈 VIX: Likely to Make a Big Move, Smart Money Buying Calls
As QQQ weakens, the VIX has already broken out:
Support flip at 23.50 is confirmed
Price is hovering above 25, with all short-term EMAs stacked beneath (bullish configuration)
Option flow for VIX is explosive:
$4M+ on 21C (May)
$2.2M on 22C (May)
Heavy demand at 30C (May) and 34–70C for later months
📊 Interpretation: Institutions are positioning now for a volatility event before late May — possibly driven by a tech sector retracement.
🔄 The Macro Setup:
Index Signal
VIX Bullish — breakout, EMA support, aggressive call flow
QQQ Bearish bias — resistance hold, weak volume, bearish structure
RSI (both) Neutral zone with momentum divergence forming
🎯 Trading Outlook:
Short bias on QQQ as long as it remains under 485
Long VIX exposure (direct or via calls) could be rewarded if QQQ falters
Watch May 21 and May 22 for VIX option expiries — institutions expect a move by then
📣 Final Thought:
The calm is deceptive. The breakout has already happened — just not where most are looking.
VIX is coiled and ready. QQQ is stretched and stalling.
The conditions for a volatility spike and tech pullback are in place.
✍️ Chart + flow analysis by @brownian (Far from being a financial advisor!)
📅 April 28, 2025
#VIX #QQQ #OptionsFlow #Volatility #BearishDivergence #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
Probably going to be a choppy weekI think if you know how to draw well enough, yeah, you can kinda predict the future. Expecting price compression into 550 to the end of the week which would form a doji leading into May. Above the red line, we're more bullish, below the green line forming the compression triangle, we would be going bearish. An Iron Condor between 553 and 546 would probably work.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Anticipation Builds for Key Economic Data: Investors are on edge as they await a series of critical economic reports this week, including GDP growth figures and the April jobs report. Concerns are mounting that recent tariff policies may have begun to weigh on economic performance, with forecasts suggesting a significant slowdown in growth.
💼 Earnings Season in Full Swing: Major corporations are set to report earnings today, including AstraZeneca, Honeywell, Regeneron, PayPal, PACCAR, Kraft Heinz, Ares Capital, SoFi, Zebra Technologies, Incyte, Repligen, and Commvault. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into how companies are navigating the current economic landscape.
📉 Market Volatility Persists Amid Trade Tensions: The stock market continues to experience volatility as investors grapple with the implications of ongoing trade disputes and tariff implementations. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could further dampen economic growth and corporate profitability.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 29:
📦 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET):
Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March. These figures provide early insights into trade balances and inventory levels, which are critical for assessing economic momentum.
📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. A decline in confidence could signal reduced consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. This data helps assess the health of the job market and potential wage pressures.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
QQQ Long-term Key LevelsIdentified Key levels for Long-term Holdings
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