Get started

ETF market

Weekly Analysis of Gold ETF GLD: Cup and Handle Price Target andWeekly Analysis of Gold ETF GLD: Current Bull Trend Following Cup and Handle Formation Introduction The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has emerged as a pivotal investment vehicle for those seeking exposure to gold, especially amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. A thorough technical analysis reveals a significant cup and handle formation that developed from 2001 to February 2024. This bullish pattern has now led to a steep upward trend in GLD, signaling continued momentum for investors. Cup and Handle Formation The cup and handle formation is a classic bullish pattern indicating a strong potential for price appreciation. In GLD's case, the handle is approximately 50% of the height of the cup, resulting in a robust setup that has propelled the ETF into a sustained bull trend following its breakout in February 2024. Volume Analysis Volume behavior is a crucial component of the cup and handle pattern. During the cup formation, volume displayed a strong U shape, reflecting robust buying interest. A decrease in volume during the handle phase indicated healthy consolidation. The subsequent heavy breakout volume in February confirmed the strength of this bullish movement, validating the upward trajectory of GLD. Measuring Target To project potential price targets, we can measure the height of the cup and apply it to the breakout price. The calculated target suggests a price level of $278.51. Additionally, Fibonacci projections provide confirmation for this measurement. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension level indicates a price target of $282.08, which closely aligns with the previously calculated cup height target. This convergence of targets reinforces the bullish outlook for GLD, indicating a strong potential for continued upward movement. Trading Strategies The pink trendline on the chart serves as a crucial support level. Monitoring price action around this trendline is essential for traders. A breakout below this level would signal the end of the current bull trend and may lead to a trading range followed by a potential correction. Conversely, maintaining support above this trendline will be vital for sustaining the upward momentum. As we navigate this bull trend, it’s important to be mindful of potential market corrections. Before entering any short positions, traders should look for confirmation signals, such as a test of previous highs, which may result in a lower high, a higher high, or a double top formation. A breakout below the pink trendline alone is not sufficient for short-selling decisions; a clearer indication of a reversal is needed. One critical area to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci projection level, which previously acted as a significant resistance level before becoming support. A pullback to this level is anticipated, representing a potential correction in the GLD price. Additionally, the correction may find support at the blue trendline, which connects the lows of the cup and handle formation. Potential Catalysts and Seasonal Trends A significant catalyst for market correction could be the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, particularly if Donald Trump wins on November 5, 2024. Trump’s previous presidency was characterized by substantial stock market gains, often attributed to policies that fostered economic growth and stability. His commitment to end the conflict in Ukraine may further boost investor confidence, creating a conducive environment for market corrections. Timing remains crucial for any investment strategy. The end of December typically sees increased gold prices due to the holiday season, and this trend continues into the Chinese New Year. Investors should be aware that these seasonal factors can lead to upward momentum for gold in the near term. However, caution is warranted, particularly as the market may experience corrections after these seasonal peaks. Conclusion As GLD currently navigates a steep bull trend following the breakout in February 2024, investors should closely monitor critical levels and potential price targets. A strong breakout below the pink trendline could signal a shift in market dynamics, leading to a trading range and potential correction. In contrast, maintaining support above this trendline will be crucial for sustaining upward momentum. Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant for key developments, especially surrounding the upcoming election and seasonal trends, as these factors may significantly impact the gold market. Those looking to act should carefully consider the timing of their trades, aligning them with technical signals and fundamental events to maximize potential gains. In summary, adopting a well-informed approach that combines technical analysis with an understanding of fundamental developments will be essential for successfully navigating the current market dynamics associated with GLD.
AMEX:GLD
by OWLINGOLD
SPY EOY AnalysisAs we approach the end of the year, the SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust) appears to be trading within defined expected ranges, according to the provided data. This week-by-week analysis is particularly useful for traders and investors looking to optimize their risk management strategies and position sizing. Here’s an overview of key metrics and their importance: The **Kelly Ratio** is a widely-used formula to determine the optimal portion of capital to allocate to each trade. This ratio is especially valuable for traders looking to strike the right balance between risk and reward. For example, in the current week (Week 42), the Kelly ratio of 0.3068 indicates that about 30% of available capital could be allocated to this position, assuming optimal risk management based on expected returns. By examining this ratio weekly, investors can adjust their exposure depending on how favorable market conditions are. A higher Kelly ratio indicates better opportunities, while a lower ratio calls for a more conservative approach. The **Adjusted Kelly Fraction** is a fine-tuned version of the Kelly ratio that takes into account additional constraints like risk tolerance or market liquidity. In the current week, this fraction is 0.1767, which is more conservative than the Kelly ratio, suggesting that adjustments for risk aversion or other factors have been made. Tracking this weekly allows investors to stay flexible and manage risk more effectively, adapting to changing market conditions. The **Tail Ratio** measures the likelihood of extreme market movements. For Week 42, the tail ratio is 0.79, suggesting that the chances of a large, unexpected price movement are somewhat contained. A low tail ratio signals that the market might experience higher volatility or extreme price swings, and tracking this metric over time helps identify when market stability or instability might occur. **Volatility** (%) is another critical factor, indicating the magnitude of price swings within each week. In the current analysis, volatility fluctuates between 2.16% and 3.38% in the weeks ahead. Higher volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which might present opportunities for traders using strategies that profit from large movements, such as straddles or strangles. Lower volatility suggests a more stable market, ideal for time-decay strategies like credit spreads. **Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)** is a risk management tool that estimates potential losses during extreme market conditions. For Week 42, the CVaR is -4.12%, indicating potential losses in worst-case scenarios. CVaR helps in preparing for unfavorable outcomes, especially during weeks with higher anticipated risks, ensuring that your strategy accounts for rare but impactful events. Finally, the **Expected Minimum and Maximum Prices** for each week give you a clear sense of the anticipated trading range. In Week 42, the expected minimum price is $555.49, and the maximum is $608.63, suggesting a relatively stable range. Strategies like iron condors or butterflies, which benefit from price staying within a certain range, would thrive in such conditions. Weeks with a broader range might offer opportunities for breakout trades or more aggressive directional strategies. Looking further ahead, Week 49 stands out due to a sharp negative position size (-269.59) and a drawdown of 0.93%. This week warrants caution, as it signals the potential for more significant downside risk, though subsequent weeks like Week 50 show a return to more stable expected ranges. Overall, SPY’s end-of-year outlook suggests that the market will largely remain within predictable bounds, though periods of increased volatility could arise. Investors and traders should stay vigilant, using tools like the Kelly ratio, tail ratio, and CVaR to manage risk while capitalizing on available opportunities. Maintaining a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure, while adapting strategies based on weekly volatility and price range expectations, will be key to navigating the remainder of the year. **Disclaimer**: The following analysis is based solely on the provided data and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and any investment decisions should be made after thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor.
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
1
SPY Loosing Momentum ! SPYLOVERS DONT PANIC ! Its OKAfter several weeks of analysis, the price reached its all-time highs twice, creating a new extreme. Att his moment is what i call in a no man's land zone. But what do I see in the overall structure? If you can clearly identify the yellow upward channel, I want you to split it in half, and we will analyze the two parts. In the first half, we have an active price movement, with clear fluctuations between support and resistance. The high volatility causes the price to move in waves, perfectly respecting support and resistance. But if you can manage to identify the second half, up until the end of the channel, you'll see that the price shows signs of exhaustion. Exhaustion, how? When the price stops having that volatility everyone is looking for, and begins to slow down and starts moving like a worm along the edge of the channel’s support, showing small candles and, above all, losing momentum. (In the chart, I want you to identify the price exhaustion by marking it with a small symbol of a worm crawling along the channel's support.) This type of behavior happens frequently when the price is losing momentum. In this type of scenario, I am more than certain that we will soon see a move where the price might break out of the yellow channel. Most likely, we will see the price make its natural retracement. After achieving two all-time highs, I believe it's time for the price to take a break, either to consolidate or make a quick decision. Nevertheless, I am expecting the price to make its natural pullback in the coming week. We’ll see if it happens. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
Reaching the top on Elliott Impulse WaveThe potential upside for SPY could be around 1% to 2.5%, pushing it to the 590-600 range. However, with the market in overbought territory, signs of an ABC correction are starting to emerge. This correction could lead to a 5% to 10% decline, potentially stretching into the next year. Despite two years of strong bull market gains, we haven't seen a significant correction, which feels overdue, particularly with the euphoria around AI investments. While I hesitate to call it a "bubble," it's not on the same scale as the dot-com bubble, as many of the companies leading in AI are established tech giants rather than startups. However, it's still unclear how much revenue these companies will generate from AI in the short term, though Meta is already seeing some returns, while others are likely to see results in two to three years. A further risk could stem from geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which are closer to war than ever. If conflict escalates, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil traffic. This would drive oil prices higher, pushing inflation up and potentially leading the Fed to raise interest rates. As of now, the market hasn't even priced in the possibility of a limited or retaliatory strike from Israel, which seems increasingly likely. Lastly, I don't believe this will mark the end of the bull run or push SPY into bear market territory, as there are still solid data points supporting the economy. Hopefully, a small correction occurs, which would be healthy, and we avoid any major geopolitical fallout.
AMEX:SPYShort
by JerryDaniel
$QQQ #QQQ Symmetrical Wedge SqueezeInvesco QQQ Trust, has been ranging in between this symmetrical triangle pattern. It looks ready for a breakout move to the top side although it is good to watch both sides for the move. Scenario 1: If we breakout the resistance side (Which we've had trouble all day today (opex volatility)) we may see the target $498.43 resistance hit sometime next week. Scenario 2: If we break below the support side we have 2 gap fills that need filling. Main target for this is the $490.56 gap fill and daily support. I am leaning more towards the bullish side breakout for this trade as I anticipate an increase in volume going into next weeks markets.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by NateTradesStonks
SPY Short: A look at Elliott Wave Counts and Fibonacci ExtensionBased on yesterday’s move where SPY opened with a new high, I have did a slight modification to the wave count such that I merged the previous wave 3 and wave 4 to become a single wave 3. Note that I do not really like this kind of action and shows bias on my end for preferred wave count. In order to do this, I will have to restudy Fibonacci relationships to ascertain whether it can be done. Back to this idea itself. As you can see, I’ve started the cycle wave 5 from 5th Aug 2024 low, and plotted 3 degrees of wave counts: Highest Intermediate Blue Wave Middle Minor Green Wave Lowest Minute Purple Wave All the waves counts end at the same place: yesterday’s (17th Oct 2024 session) opening high. I’ve drawn 2 Fibonacci extension levels: 1. Green Fibonacci Level which is internal to Minor Wave 5: Extend Minute Wave 1 against the entire Minor Wave 5 Structure. 2. Purple Fibonacci Level which is a measure of Intermediate Wave 1 against Intermediate Wave 5. Both Fibonacci levels shows convergence around 586.5 vs the opening high of 586.12. I am willing to accept this for a study of pre-opening shows that futures and CFDs was actually higher than our opening high, meaning target was hit during pre-market. This is an important concept that an Elliott Waver must remember: the importance of movement of prices outside of regular trading hours (RTH) must be taken into consideration when counting waves and expecting targets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by yuchaosng
2
QQQ Technical Analysis for October 18, 2024Chart Insights and Market Structure From the 1-hour chart, QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) is moving within a descending channel or wedge structure, hinting at a potential breakout in either direction, but likely leaning towards consolidation for now. Here are the key technical levels and insights: Support Levels: 487.55: This level acts as immediate support, where buyers may attempt to defend. 486.09: Critical short-term support—if breached, expect a retest of lower levels. 483.64: This is the next significant support zone and a key psychological level. Resistance Levels: 490.17: Immediate overhead resistance that QQQ needs to break to gain upward momentum. 492.47: A stronger resistance zone; reclaiming this could indicate further upside toward 496.90. 498.83: If the price rallies above this level, it could mark the start of a larger bullish trend. Descending Channel/Wedge: QQQ is trading within this structure, which typically suggests a potential breakout. A bullish breakout would signal a reversal, while continued price action within the wedge indicates ongoing consolidation. Indicators & Volume Insights MACD: The MACD is currently neutral with no strong trend signal. Watch for potential crossovers or momentum shifts for confirmation of the next move. Volume: The chart indicates declining volume during the consolidation. A breakout accompanied by increased volume will confirm the direction of the next major move. Trading Scenarios for Tomorrow: Bullish Case: If QQQ breaks above 490.17 and sustains above 492.47, we could see a move toward 496.90 or 498.83. Look for strong volume on the breakout for confirmation. Bearish Case: If the price falls below 486.09, expect a retest of 483.64. A breakdown below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, potentially toward lower unmarked levels. Additional Considerations: Watch QQQ and SPY Correlation: Given the similarity in patterns between large ETFs like SPY and QQQ, keep an eye on both. A coordinated breakout or breakdown across indices could provide stronger confirmation. Impact of Earnings & Macro Data: QQQ is tech-heavy, so any news around tech earnings or macroeconomic announcements could influence the price action significantly. Tips for Trading QQQ Successfully: Patience: Wait for breakouts with confirmation (volume and candlestick patterns) to avoid false moves. Risk Management: Place stop losses below key support levels to protect against sudden market reversals. Scalp with Precision: Given your interest in scalping, focus on high-volume periods (market open or major news) to catch quick price movements. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading and manage risks according to your capital.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
SPY Technical Analysis for October 18, 2024Current Market Structure From the 1-hour chart, SPY is sitting in an interesting zone with several key levels to watch for tomorrow's trading session: Support Levels: 582.30: Immediate support, where SPY may try to stabilize. 578.53: Stronger support, previously tested as both resistance and support. Resistance Levels: 585.28: Immediate resistance overhead. If SPY breaks this, expect bullish continuation. 586.30: The next resistance level to monitor, potentially marking the upper boundary of the trend. Trendlines: SPY is still within an ascending channel, and the lower trendline (starting around October 11) is providing consistent support for price action. As long as it stays above this trendline, the bullish structure is intact. Indicators & Volume Insights Volume: We’ve seen volume decline slightly towards the close, which could mean consolidation before the next move. Momentum Indicator: There’s a slight uptick in the oscillators, indicating a potential reversal or continuation to the upside. Keep an eye on momentum overnight. Potential Scenarios for Tomorrow: Bullish Case: If SPY holds above 582.30 and breaks 585.28, we could see a run toward 586.30 and possibly beyond. Bearish Case: A break below 582.30 may trigger selling pressure, with 578.53 being the key support level to monitor for further downside. ____________________________________ Why Some Traders Profit While Others Struggle with the Same TA Even with identical technical analysis, traders experience different outcomes. Here are a few common reasons: Discipline & Emotions: Many traders fail to follow their trading plan or let emotions (fear and greed) interfere. Risk Management: Profitable traders use proper position sizing and stop losses, while others risk too much on single trades. Execution: Timing is critical—delays or hesitation can lead to missed or poorly executed entries. Adaptability: Markets change rapidly, and rigid traders who can’t adapt often miss out, while others thrive by adjusting their strategies. If you find yourself struggling despite using solid TA, focus on building discipline, refining your execution, and maintaining good risk management practices. Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Feel free to PM me if you have any questions or need further clarification. Happy trading! 📊🚀
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq: Key Indicator of Tech MomentumIntroduction: The ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ serves as a key indicator of tech sector momentum and near-term risk sentiment. When SMH outperforms QQQ, it signals a "risk-on" environment, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors and overall tech sector health. Conversely, if QQQ outperforms SMH, it suggests a "risk-off" environment, pointing to concerns over weakening chip demand. Analysis: Risk Sentiment: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio provides insights into tech momentum. A higher SMH performance often indicates robust chip demand, a positive signal for the broader tech sector. On the other hand, when QQQ outperforms, it signals caution, possibly reflecting waning demand for semiconductors. Bullish Outlook: Recently, the SMH-to-QQQ ratio has formed a higher low, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductors. This higher low is a positive sign not just for the semiconductor industry but for the broader market as well, as semiconductors often lead market rallies. Conclusion: The recent bullish signal in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio suggests tech sector strength, with semiconductors likely leading the way. This is a critical metric for assessing near-term market momentum, so traders should keep a close eye on this ratio to gauge potential shifts in sentiment. What’s your take on this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio and the higher low formation) #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #RiskOn
NASDAQ:SMH
by Richtv_official