$QQQ - Trading Levels for March 13 2025NASDAQ:QQQ - Trading Levels for March 13 2025
Alright, yโall. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. The 200DMA is above the trading range, just under that the bear gap protecting it. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes.
35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday.
I will be looking to the outer spreads here.
GL, yโall.
ETF market
$SPY - Trading Levels for March 13 2025
Alright, yโall. We are dangling, unsupported underneath the 200DMA and that Bear Gap. I am trading cautiously today because inflation data days I tend to make a lot of mistakes.
35EMA - this level is a BEAST. We were unable to get above it yesterday. Trace it back 3 weeks and youโll see itโs been there every time to push us back lower.
I will be looking to the outer spreads and even then I might push it out a little.
If and when I take a position I will update it here.
GL, yโall.
QQQ - Nasdaq has reached it's firstPrice reached the Warning Line 1.
This is a natural support, because it's a standard deviation stretch. From here, price has a high tendency of mean-reversion.
How far?
Most of the time it shoots back to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel.
Beware of the potential resistnace zone.
This level is a good one to take partial profits.
As for a stop, I would put it below the last swing-long. I may play it with Options (for example a Risk-Reversal), giving me more leeway to the downside if it's not playing out immediately.
Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS)
EFT Info :
Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS) is an investment fund traded on the Australian stock exchange that allows investors to buy shares in approximately 300 of Australia's largest companies with a single purchase.
Chart Analysis
The Monthly zone is promising, entry is at 87.54 however thats the lowest timeframe i could use here.
Conc:
1.As this is monthly timeframe movement is in months and hence the long wait.
2. The zone is risky and would require a confirmation kind of trade to get into
Prop:
The Vanguard is well established and an entry would not require a target as its a wait and hold
Market Recap: Winners, Losers and Lessons from the past 4 MonthsGreetings Friends,
Coi hereโI hope youโre having a great start to the year.
Iโve been away for some time, and I wanted to provide an update on whatโs happening in the market, my thoughts on the current landscape, and any strategies that may help you make better trading decisions.
As always please find attached other views / charts of the market that might not have been mentioned in this update.
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. I do not take responsibility for any trading or financial decisions you make. Always do your own research.
โธป
Market Recap: What Happened?
The market has been bombarded with major headline news, including:
- Deep Seek AI Threats
- U.S. Tariff Threats on Allies
- Retaliatory Tariffs
- White House Show Down
- Inflation resurgence
These events have contributed to a broad market correction, with indices pulling back 13% from their December 17 highs through March 12 (and still ongoing).
Notable Performance : ๐ญ
BABA +70%
MSTR -56%
TESLA -50%
NVDA -30%
Meanwhile, capital and investor confidence have shifted overseas, strengthening both the DAX and the Hang Seng Index.
As previously noted in my post on January 1st The VIX forecasted this correction early.
I donโt play poker but the Vix is like that that one person who has a bad poker face. Take heed.
My Market Update:
I am currently neutral in this environment, at this stage everyone is expecting a rally โ which I do agree with but the question is will this be a counter trend rally and will momentum in the future keep favouring the downside?
I will be attaching pictures to better help explain my view points.
โธป
Lessons Learned (For Those Willing to Listen)
โข Everyone is playing a game of musical chairs. Banks, hedge funds, retail traders, analystsโquestion everything.
โข Trading is the loneliest sport. No one is going to show up for your recital, but keep going.
โข Your gut is your second brain. Learn to trust it.
โข Itโs frustrating to face issues with your strategy, but solving them is therapeutic. Growth happens in the problem-solving phase.
โธป
Closing Notes:
My goal is to be more active again. Iโll be sharing my market insights, trade setups, and thoughts weekly.
Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and trade wisely.
Best Regards,
C-Lemard
โธป
Time to Scoop up Small Caps?The Russell 2000 is down 17% from November highs. According to Bank of America, small caps are not pricing in a recession. Historical small-cap selloffs during recessions have been 35-40%, with forward P/Es dropping about 30%. Earnings are still 38% below their peak. Small caps trade at 14.2x earnings, slightly below the historical average, suggesting they reflect a mild manufacturing slowdown rather than a recession. P/E valuations suggest 9% annualized returns for the Russell 2000 over the next decade, compared to 5% for mid-caps and 1% for large caps.
IWM Technicals:
- Multi-year log trend support.
- Vastly under the yearly average (yellow).
XLF Pulling BackLooks like Financial sector is pulling back. How much? Anyone can guess. I see a couple gaps back through the $46 range that needs to be filled. There is much volume coming in and the sellers are taking control. We had a break down of the sector for the past week. If it drops below the 50 day EMA it could easily retest the 100 day at $48, so a $2 spread is not a bad trade. Do your due diligence.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 13, 2025 ๐ฎ ๐ฎ
๐ Market-Moving News ๐:
๐ฐ๐ท๐บ๐ธ South Korea's Trade Minister Visits U.S. ๐ฐ๐ท๐บ๐ธ: South Korea's Trade Minister, Cheong In-kyo, is visiting Washington, D.C., from March 13 to 14 to discuss trade issues, including reciprocal tariffs and investment opportunities, with U.S. counterparts. This visit aims to address concerns about tariffs following President Trump's comments regarding disparities between U.S. and South Korean tariffs. The outcome of these discussions could impact sectors reliant on U.S.-South Korea trade relations. โ
๐ฉ๐ช๐ ๏ธ German Debt Reform Debates ๐ฉ๐ช๐ ๏ธ: Germany's Bundestag is set to begin debates on debt reform plans starting March 13, focusing on increasing infrastructure spending and reforming state borrowing rules to fund defense. The proposed creation of a โฌ500 billion infrastructure fund aims to stimulate the economy. These reforms could influence European economic stability, indirectly affecting U.S. markets through global economic interconnections. โ
๐ Key Data Releases ๐:
๐
Thursday, March 13:
๐ญ Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) ๐ญ:The PPI measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends.
Forecast: +0.3% month-over-monthโ
Previous: +0.4% month-over-monthโ
๐ Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) ๐:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health.
Forecast: 226K
Previous: 221K
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.โ ๏ธโ
๐ #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY PRINTS RARE 'BUY' SIGNAL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAR 2020!!On the 2 Day chart, AMEX:SPY is signaling its intent to print a buy signal on our CM Ultimate RSI Indicator as soon as tomorrow, for the first time since March 2020
In this video, we look at that exact signal & see what the past 11 years of price action says about what's the next move for AMEX:SPY
QQQ Chart Analysis and PredictionQQQ reached a very trick position today. What we need to look for on Thursday is that,
whether it will break above the trend line and stay bullish, or get rejected by the trend line and become very bearish. If it stays bullish, watch for some levels above that will possibly be tested. If it reverses to bearish momentum, it will find solid support at 450-445.
QQQ: Trend's 3 Frames of ReferenceTrend's Three Frames of Reference:
The Fibonacci channels in the chart are constructed based on the COVID low (March 2020) and the 2023 low, with a projection that aligns with the late 2021 top as a key reference point. This approach sets the direction of the Fibonacci channels in an upward-sloping trajectory, capturing the broader bullish trend while identifying key areas of support and resistance.
The trend structure follows a long-term ascending Fibonacci framework, where the lower blue regions (0.786, 0.618 levels) represent historical support zones, aligning with past market corrections.
The mid-range levels (0.5, 0.382) act as consolidation zones where price action frequently stabilizes before continuing its trend.
The uppermost red-orange zones (0.236 and above) highlight overextension zones, aligning with the late 2021 high, where the market previously faced strong resistance before entering a corrective phase in 2022.
By using the COVID low and the 2023 low as anchors, the Fibonacci channels effectively map the marketโs trajectory and provide insight into potential future movements. The alignment with the late 2021 top further reinforces these levels as critical points for potential price reactions, making this an effective tool.
In this alternative Fibonacci channel configuration, the direction is adjusted to align with a steeper bullish trajectory, possibly emphasizing a different perspective on trend structure and momentum. The key anchors for the Fibonacci channels remain rooted in the 2023 low and recent higher highs, creating a more aggressively inclined channel structure.
This Fibonacci channel configuration differs from the previous ones by focusing on a shorter-term structure with a narrower range and downward-sloping alignment. It is anchored from the recent 2023 low to the subsequent high, with Fibonacci retracement levels applied to identify key support and resistance zones. Leaving this trend configuration is a signal that price goes for bigger range movement.
By utilizing three Fibonacci channel references, this method enhances price forecasting accuracy, confirms key support/resistance areas, and adapts to different trading styles. The combination of macro, momentum, and retracement-based analysis ensures that both investors and traders can make informed decisions based on multi-frame confluence zones.
Long-term investors should watch Configuration 1 for sustainable support levels. Momentum traders can rely on Configuration 2 for buying dips near 0.5 and selling near 0.236. Short-term traders should focus on Configuration 3 for managing pullbacks and breakout confirmations.