QQQ fibonacci retracementsThis is the QQQ and Fibonacci retracements from 2022 and 2020 to give you an idea of where support may lie. We crashed through support and sit in open air.
ETF market
SPY w/ 2022 Fibonacci levels. The chart is the SPY with FIB levels from the 2022 bottom or close to give you an idea of where we might find support levels.
Nasdaq 100, QQQ expected to bounce from hereQQQ reached equal legs perfectly friday and is now expected to bounce monday to regain 50% of the decline from ATH. Then another leg to reach the long time trendline and volume support is expected.
SPY with the cluster resistance rection! boost and follow for more 🔥 spy continues to break below the 557 level pivot level, I sold all my shares on the first break below last friday and have not added any back this week.
that reclaim of 557 pivot level this week only led to a cluster resistance rejection which was another bearish sign, I dont like longs right now unless we reclaim 446. for now bearish action can continue.
we will see I will keep monitoring SPY as always! GLTA
SPYAs investors, we must understand that in order for consumers to access cheaper products, sacrifices will be required in several key areas. Adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy (changes in the federal funds rate and balance sheet reduction) will directly impact GDP and real income. Likewise, consumer prices will reflect the impacts of inflation (CPI) and fiscal policies. Increases in labor costs (adjustments in wages and employment costs) will also play a crucial role in these changes. Private consumption (PCE) will be pressured by these dynamics, and businesses will have to decide between maintaining profit margins or passing these costs onto consumers. The key will be how these adjustments in prices and wages are negotiated, as the market seeks a new equilibrium between supply and demand. Prepare yourself, as these adjustments are part of a long and challenging process, but they are inevitable.
#SPY #SP500
SPY Equal Distance Top followed by takedown.The CD runup equaled the AB runup. 3 months of distribution followed as the SPY could not breakout. The week of 2/18/20 was the scamdemic top. The week of 2/18/25 top was the 5 year anniversary. Trump in office both times. I believe this is more than a coincidence and not just some tariff bs.
There was a reason Buffet was hoarding cash.
Market Update - 4/6/2025Was contemplating selling some puts to bet on a rebound next week given how oversold we are on all measures, but decided to pass. We are in uncharted territory and you never know how steep these markets can fall before they find support. After all, I'm not in the falling knife catching business.
As for my active account, I only had a few small trades booking a small loss for the week. Still flat for the past month. Overall likely cash will continue to be king for a while. I'm always on the lookout for high RS names though, but now things are extremely shaky to be buying breakouts.
SPY: Week of April 7Hey everyone,
Sharing the levels for next week.
I don't have much of a forecast tbh, the thing is, in bullish markets its harder to forecast the long term, easier to forecast the short term.
In bearish markets its easier to forecast the long term, harder to forecast the short term.
Each week we have been up and down, taking out all highs and lows for the past few weeks owning to the volatility, and that is what makes it difficult to really adopt any forecast when most times we are just hitting all targets with the volatility.
Here are some things for the short term:
About 78% chance spy Retraces 528
507 is the reference target
Based on the EMA 21, there is an 89% chance of seeing a bounce on SPY.
Based on the EMA 50, there is a 69% chance.
POC from last week is at 537.
Will it bounce?
Yes, I mean like I said, we take both highs and lows out each week, I don't really foresee this week to be any different, haha.
And the longer term?
So the real interesting stuff I guess is the longer term, but not that interesting.
SPY is rapidly mean reverting. Right now the mean for SPY is around 481. This is actually within the forecasted levels for next week, so that's curious.
In 2022, the mean was 350. It took exactly 10 months (from January to October) before we finally hit it (and went 2 points lower).
At this pace, we are hitting it this month. Which is a concern. Why? Well let me tell you.
There are corrections that are required to happen generally, just a general mean reversion, not necessarily fundamentally driven. That was the example of 2022.
Then, there are corrections/crashes and cycles that are fundamentally driven. An example of this, for SPY, would be 2008.
In the fundamentally driven crashes, for SPy those would be COVID, 2008 Financial Crisis, those surpassed means and let to a stark sell. COVID was pretty quick, but 2008 was really drawn out owning to the unfolding of economic events.
The reason the 2 require distinction, is because technical and analysis are useless during fundamental corrections. You could draw fibs to the cows come up in 2008 and you would be bankrupt by month 3.
However, in 2022, technicals and such worked fine because we were just doing a basic correction from getting too far from the mean.
Interestingly enough, my comparison algorithm that compares the current year to similar years, for both SPY and SPX, has indicated that 2008 is the most similar year as of right now. This is a huge change from the results it gave even just a month ago.
For fundamental sells, it doesn't stop until stuff gets resolved. As was the case in 2008 with the required bailouts, and once the dust settled from the multiple industries and businesses that went under. Then the market started a slow and painful recovery.
The situation here is more similar to 2008 than the COVID crash. The reason being the main concern with COVID was economic shut down as a result of the pandemic. However, this was quickly curbed with modification of the work routine (industries working from home where applicable), the continuation of industries functioning and the huge stimulus that the government injected into the economy.
Right now, the issue is a global trade war. In 2018, Trump only tariffed random items (mostly metals) on a few random countries. Right now, he is blanket tariffing the global economy. He doesn't even stop there and has to bring in my favourite animal, the Peunguins.
God, Trump, what did they ever do to you? Leave the penguins alone!
This is incredibly bad, its actually unprecedented. It is essentially a world war from an economic standpoint. And we are still waiting for the verdict on some bigger nations retaliatory tariff results.
The global tariff war extends beyond just increase the cost of things, it actually may lead to a decrease in the US money supply, a rise in inflation and a huge cut to GDP for the US and other countries impacted.
Trump could lift them, ease them or something. This would probably lead to some initial reaction to the market, but it seems the market doesn't even trust him anymore because when he kept playing those "just kidding" games into the beginning of the year, the market just stopped reacting to them. It is kind of funny.
So the result is, it could be much worse than most anticipate, even myself.
As of right now, my plan is to go long in the 480s, kind of on most things. Rebuild a portfolio.
But as we progress, it seems that 480 may not indeed be the end. It just depends on Trump's mood at the time I suppose.
From a purely math analysis:
481 is the mean for spy, we are following the annual bear market path which has as low as 468.
Here is where we stand now on the annual assessment:
And then in terms of mean reversion, SPX is the most interesting to take a look at:
4,791 is the mean. The last mean correction it has had was in 2022, same as spy:
In addition, SPX just signaled a top/mean reversion signal.
On the prospects of a bottom formation:
None of my stuff indicates a bottom formation. In fact, we have some top signals just newly triggering, which is nuts I know but the reality.
So that's .. good? Maybe, haha.
Anyway, those are my thoughts.
My suggestion is to continue to position defensively in anticipation of both up and downside next week.
Safe trades!
Also, for more deep diving into the fundamentals, sort of, consider reading this post from me if you haven't already:
Trading UVIX for Effective Hedge📊 Trade Idea: UVIX Multi-Layered Entry Strategy (Scalping Volatility Spikes)
The current market environment presents a unique opportunity to trade the Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX), which has surged nearly 50% on Thursday and 124% over the last week. With ongoing fears surrounding President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, volatility is expected to remain elevated.
🔍 What Is UVIX?
UVIX is a leveraged ETF designed to provide twice (2x) the daily return of the Long VIX Futures Index. Unlike the VIX itself, which measures expected market volatility, UVIX holds futures contracts on the VIX, aiming to profit from both upward spikes in volatility and the structure of the futures market.
Pros of UVIX:
High Return Potential: Can deliver significant gains when market volatility spikes.
Effective Hedge: A powerful tool to offset losses during broad market declines.
Liquidity: Offers easy access to volatility exposure without directly trading VIX futures.
Cons of UVIX:
High Volatility: Amplified moves can result in large gains or substantial losses.
Decay & Compounding Issues: Daily rebalancing and futures roll costs can erode value over time.
Not Suitable for Long-Term Holding: Designed for short-term plays, not buy-and-hold investing.
Here’s my detailed risk-managed trading plan to profit from continued volatility.
🚀 Entry Strategy: Layered Buy Entries with Trailing Stops
🎯 Initial Entry:
Entry Price: 80.00 (Just above the breached Supply Zone 0: 56.80 - 66.38)
Stop Loss: Below the lower trend line from the recent parabolic move (For example, around 70.00).
📈 Position Scaling: Adding to Winning Positions
Use Buy Stop Orders:
As the price breaks above significant supply zones, place Buy Stop Orders to add positions.
Scale in positions at:
Level 1: Above 89.20 (Top of Supply Zone 1)
Level 2: Above 113.25 (Top of Supply Zone 2)
Level 3: Above 147.24 (Bottom of Supply Zone 3)
Level 4: Above 182.36 (Bottom of Supply Zone 4)
Manual Entries:
Alternatively, you can manually add positions on strong breakouts during or outside Regular Trading Hours (RTH) to catch volatility spikes.
!!!Use Limit Orders Outside RTH!!
Place limit orders during off-hours to capture sharp volatility moves when liquidity is lower.
Market volatility often increases during pre-market or post-market sessions. Capitalize on these moves with well-placed limit orders.
🛡️ Risk Management: Trailing Stops & Break-Even Protection
Initial Stop Loss:
Set below the lower trend line (e.g., 70.00). This provides a wide margin for market fluctuations while still protecting your position.
Trailing Stop Loss:
As the price progresses upward, move your stop loss to higher levels to secure profits.
Use a dynamic trailing stop that follows major support levels or recent lows.
Break-Even :
Once UVIX has moved 10-20% above your entry point (80.00), move your stop loss to break even (80.00) for a risk free trade.
📌 Profit Targets
Target 1: 130.79 (Historical 350% level from July 2024 move)
Target 2: 165.46 (Top of Supply Zone 3)
Target 3: 210.30 (August 2024 High)
Adding positions as the price moves in your favor allows for maximum profit potential while limiting risk on initial entries.
Moving the stop loss to break-even creates a risk-free trade, allowing you to ride the momentum without worry.
Continually adjusting stops protects profits as they accumulate, ensuring that gains are secured even if the market turns sharply.
📣 Final Thoughts
The Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) is a powerful instrument for profiting from short-term volatility spikes. Given the current geopolitical and economic uncertainty, this setup offers a strong risk-reward opportunity.
💡Advice: Avoid Greed & Gambling in Volatility Trading
Trading the Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) offers tremendous profit potential during periods of heightened market volatility. However, the same leverage that can generate huge gains can just as easily cause significant losses. Avoiding greed and gambling behavior is crucial for your long-term success.
US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend!US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend!
Let's take a look from a Fundamental and Technical perspective;
In 2020, the middle band (main trend line) of the logarithmic rising channel was broken and the upward movement had continued since then. Today, however, the same critical support level is being tested again.
If it cannot hold at this level, a long-term trend break may occur. This would significantly increase the risk perception in Russell 2000 companies.
What is Russell 2000?
It does not include large technology giants such as Nasdaq or S&P 500, but small and medium-sized companies that hold the real pulse of the US economy.
These companies are more fragile and more vulnerable to economic fluctuations.
The spread of anti-Trump protests shows that small businesses are starting to be affected both physically and economically.
The prospect of no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) is crushing these companies under high borrowing costs.
The contraction in consumer spending can directly hit the profits of these companies because they are dependent on the domestic market.
Possible Scenarios for This Week:
🔴 If the protests deepen and the market panics:
If a break below $180 comes, the $170 support level is tested.
With panic sales, the $150 - $160 region, which is the lower band of the channel, may come to the agenda.
🟢If the environment calms down and economic data signals a recovery:
Strong purchases come from the middle trend line.
$200 - $210 band can be targeted.
In short, support is now being tested, if it breaks, the risk of serious decline is on the table.
SPY On the verge of more downfallSPY has more room to go lower the everlasting balloon has popped by trump's nonsensical shenanigans
This is why we need new order in this world
The Perfect Trade. How I've been preparing you for this S&P DUMPThis has been the basis of my 5 recent videos on SPY - walking you through what the market was doing, what algorithms were in play and important to keep an eye out for - and ultimately, how to catch this most recent dump on a rejection (and proof) of teal strong selling.
My best trade ever in terms of profit and preparation, patience, etc.
Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ Long Term: Deep in Bear MarketAn indicator works until it does not.
The SMA256 on the DAY chart of NASDAQ (QQQ/TQQQ) )has been respected multiple times as both supports and resistances since the end of COVID bullish run starting 2022.
For long-term trend-following traders, this chart shows we are now deep in the bear market (trend reversal happened in early March), stop placing long positions until the next trend reversal is clear.
Reversal (landscape edit)As you can see we've nearly completed the
same amount of distance as the covid crash.
With resistance provided by the ichimoku
cloud and previous price level. Full recovery by
August.
Reversal soonAs you can see we've nearly completed the same amount of distance as the covid crash. With resistance provided by the ichimoku cloud and previous price level. Full recovery by August.
Is Stock Market Bouncing Here or Continue Crashing?Stock Market Analysis | NASDAQ:QQQ & AMEX:SPY
Mag 7 Analysis | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN MSFT GOOGL META
US oil roadmap (rough)When it touches the blue lower rail I will buy GTE on the basis the USO ETF looks bullish
Short term bearish af
Long term bullish
Not financial advice
How bad will it get? Let's talk about it!🌟 My Market Probabilities: 🌟
1⃣ 15% chance of a V-Shape recovery with a bottom at $410–$425
2⃣ 45% chance of a COVID-like Flash Crash resolving at
$385–$400
3⃣ 33% chance of a 2022-level bear market down to
$330–$350
4⃣ 5% chance of a 2008-level crash hitting $250–$260
5⃣ 2% chance of a crazy Dot.com-level crash dropping to $90–$110
💡 No matter which scenario unfolds, it’s a blessing in disguise! These dips create incredible opportunities to invest in great companies or indexes like the AMEX:SPY or NASDAQ:QQQ paving the way for massive, life-changing wealth over the years and decades to come.
🚀 Think long-term as an investor, friends, and stay focused on the bigger picture!
GDX Gold miner ETF looking promising right now GDX Gold miner ETF looking promising right now
Similar to other precious metal price action right now
$SPY ONCE IN A LIFETIMEMeasured MOVE target is 485-500
Gave yall this OUTSIDE BAR Short last week I DID NOT THINK it would DROP SO FAST
I will be looking to LOAD HEAVY on the completion of the BEAR LEG!
Drop a "❤️" and I will update you DAILY step by step and do videos!
Spy.. Where we standSoo... I will go in detail for you so you can see where my POV comes from..
A summary of this post is a bounce. Back to 525-530 and then a possible new low to 470..
Let's start on the monthly time frame..
I will show you the chart regular then I will show you log scale (Logarithmic).
AMEX:SPY regular
Price is nearing a 5yr trend support
That support is at 495-500. There's a gap at 495 to close from April 19th 2024.. I would say if we were to gap down Monday below 500.00 that's where they will take this before buying it back up to 510.
Now do I think the correction Is over here at this trendline support? I'm leaning at it's a 70% chance we will break this support before End of May.
Why? Because of the sectors.. XLC and XLF is promising more pain to come.. imagine Spy as a car, the sectors are the important parts to keep things in motion . I'll get to the sectors later but let's stick with spy..
Now here's a monthly chart again but this time Log scale
As you can see with exception of the Covid crash spy has pretty much channel traded this the last 14yr bull run
Let's zoom in
As you can see, the bottom of this channel is around 2021 high 477. So I think Spy is headed there before End of May , it could happen sooner but you have to factor in A rally and i don't know how long that can last.
Also NASDAQ:QQQ monthly chart log scale is showing similar outlook
Zoomed in NASDAQ:QQQ
Lastly TVC:NYA
Monthly log scale
Same as Qqq and spy, headed back to 2021 high
NYA no log scale
So I've showed you the indexes now I will show you AMEX:XLF (Financials) and AMEX:XLC (Meta, NFLX)
Here's XLF price is headed back to trendline support 38-39.00 by end of May; that's another 10% drop which supports my theory that spy will tag 470
Zoomed in
XLF
Monthly 50sma aligns with trendline support so that's your target. I think any bounce on banks going into earnings should be faded!
XLC
I can't hammer on the table hard enough about how much pain is coming for this sector and it's tech stocks.. compared to the other sectors this hasn't even got started with the selling when looking at its monthly RSI and MFI. Friday price stopped right at its previous ATH
we are headed back to 82.00 which is another 8% drop on this sector, if 82 doesn't hold them , 60 comes next.. If you OWN meta on NFLX I hope you have a 5yr outlook because there will be pain
..
Now let's get into the bounce, I think a nice bounce comes next week as long as spy opens Monday above 495.00
When it comes to being oversold one of the most reliable tools I like to use is the PRICE RANGE tool with 20sma.
When you look at spy, you'll notice that in a normal market it usually moves between 2½-3½% from it's 20sma.
As of Friday's close we are 10% away from it's 20sma
This type of extension is extreme
Below I will post the last time spy was over 8% extended from it's 20sma and you can see what happened the next few sessions
June 17th 2022
Jan 24th 2022
June 8th 2020
March 2020 Covid crash
Dec 2024 2018
So in the last 7yrs spy has on dropped more that 8% from it's 20sma 5 times and with the exception of the Covid crash 10% extension was the area where you saw price Rallied back within days to retest the 20sma.
So that places us bouncing this week. Now the 20sma is fluid so even though the 20 is at 559 right now depending on how long spy takes to get there the 20ma could gravitate lower
I think 536 gap close minimum comes before we break below 495.
I will update this more tomorrow.. this right up took awhile
the week aheadprobably a good bounce monday - both IWM and DJT are hinting that buyers are coming in. We could have a fakeout either up or down first on Monday morning and test 5k.
