SOXL that wayThe index is a rules-based, modified float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies. The fund is non-diversified.
ETF market
April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged.
The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention.
In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke.
Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America.
As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there.
On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings.
Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball.
TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 24 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 24, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Bull FlagSPY looks like it’s forming a bull flag on the 15-min. If it breaks and holds above 536.43 with a strong green candle close, I’m grabbing calls. First take profit is 538.75, and if RSI stays above 60 I’ll leave a runner toward 542. If it breaks down under 534.30, that’s a sniper short setup toward 531.10. As always, do your own due diligence—this isn’t financial advice.
QQQ - Your guess is as good as mineMarkets are all over the place. I know ground breaking info. I don't think there is any clear answer to what is next.
Even if Trump does reduce tariffs on China, they are still going to be some of the highest in recent history. However, it looks like Trump has flinched and China has the upper hand. That is just likely going to make Trump more erratic since his policies are emotional/ego driven and not strategic.
Overall, there are likely some short-term gains to be have as the market likes to always push up when not in an panic sell. For now, the worst of the news is over and the low from the other week is likely going to be the bottom for the near future. I expect stock to continue this up and down until the tariffs work there way through the system and we see the true effect on the economy.
We punched above the 20 day SMA yesterday and will likely test it for support today and tomorrow. If it holds, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices test the 200 day. Hard to know what crazy stuff Trump will do over the weekend, so we will have to see. Good luck and enjoy the ride.
Spy Road To $500SPY is currently hovering around $533 in the afterhours session. Based on today’s price action and macro sentiment, if we open between $533–$532, we’re eyeing a potential retracement to the $522 zone. This zone aligns with previous demand structure and key VWAP deviation.
Bearish Confirmation Triggers:
Failure to reclaim $535 in the first 2 hours.
Breakdown below $530 + low volume bounce = short trigger.
MACD histogram flipping red on the 1H.
Target Zone: $522–$520
Stop Loss: Above $535 reclaim
Indicators Used: VWAP, MACD, Volume Imbalance, Daily Pivot Zones, Institutional Flow Heatmap.
We’re also watching dark pool prints under $529 and the delta shift on order flow—both signaling increasing bearish pressure.
If SPY opens flat and ranges for 2 hours → downside bias continues.
As always safe Trades
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Can Be Unfolding A Bullish ImpulseBlackRock's Bitcoin ETF with ticker IBIT made a massive rally in 2024, which can be wave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse. Despite the recent decline at the beginning of 2025, it's still above 42 invalidation level, and as long as it's above that level, it can be wave 4 correction, so we may still see that 5th wave this year.
The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis that identifies patterns in market movements. A bullish impulsive wave is one of the most important and common wave structures in an uptrend. It describes how prices typically move in the direction of the main trend. A bullish impulsive wave consists of five waves labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
Inverse Head-and-Shoulders FormingI see SPY, QQQ, & SMH forming inverse H&S pattern on the 4 hour chart. The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has a higher success rate than the regular Head and Shoulders pattern, with a success/failure ratio of 68.2% compared to 59% for the Head and Shoulders. In 98% of cases, the pattern exits upwards. Additionally, in 74% of cases, the price reaches the pattern's objective once the neckline is broken.
Will History Repeat Itself? $580 Target For SPY By Early MayThe market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter of days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross (When the daily 50MA crosses below the 200MA) of 2022 as a frame of reference, and taking recent PA into account using Elliott Wave, I think it is clear a bear market rally is already underway.
Starting with 2022, the price fell in three distinct waves before making a significant retracement. The day after the 50MA crossed below the 200MA, the price found a temporary bottom before chopping around for 13 sessions. Volume was on a steady decline before the price made a higher low and retraced nearly 75% of Wave (A) over the course of another 13 sessions (13 is a fibonacci number btw). The price briefly spiked above all of the moving averages (50/100/200) before getting sold off again in the strongest wave of the bear market of that year.
Now looking at the daily chart for this year, the setup is a little bit different but there are still similarities. For starters, the 50MA crossed below the 200MA a few days after the market found a temporary bottom at $482. What I’m counting as Wave A of (B) lasted for five sessions (another Fibonacci number). Wave B of (B) was actually four sessions but I decided to compare the volume of both movements using the same chunk of time. As you can see, there was nearly double the volume in Wave A vs Wave B, signaling that bulls are in control (for now). Volume in Wave A was comparatively higher on average than the entire downtrend, which is also worthy of note.
Since we are now in Wave C of (B) and the 100MA is converging with the 200MA, we should see the squeeze here. A similar retracement to complete Wave (B), when comparing to 2022, would suggest AMEX:SPY will spike above $580 rather quickly before the next sell off. If Wave C were to unfold in a more conservative eight sessions (the next biggest fib number) we should see Wave (B) end around Thursday May 1st. It could take a little bit longer since the next FOMC is May 6-7, which could be an event that will cause the market to change directions.
Lastly, for a closer look, this is how I am counting the sub-waves on the 500R ($5) chart. Wave B was a classic Regular Flat pattern that saw wave (c) find support slightly past 100% of wave (a) at roughly $509. The price quickly found support (much faster than I would have expected) without filling the gap and ripped higher. We’ve also seen the price hover around monthly VWAP for a while, which indicates somewhat of an agreement on price despite the wild swings.
The price gapped up over 2% on Wednesday before seeing some selling in the afternoon. We could either close this gap on Thursday or continue higher to close the upper gap at $560 and beyond. Volume increased from wave (b)-(c), and has remained higher - which I think is accumulation. Using intraday ratios, Wave C of (B) could extend as high as the 1.618 extension at $587.
Actually, one last thing. TVC:VIX price action also supports my thesis. Even through the PA on AMEX:SPY was relatively neutral on Wednesday after the gap up, VIX still importantly dropped below support and is now below the 0.618 retracement. I think it will return to the 200MA for support, which usually hovers around $20. Fib circles added just because they’re kind of interesting to me when analyzing VIX.
If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and good luck. As always - use your best judgement and be ready to react to anything that happens in the market.
The Graveyard Of Hope!The Graveyard of Hope is littered with "Buy The Dippers."
How many times can "Buy The Dippers" lick the stove before they finally learn their lesson not to believe anything Trumpchenko says?
The Elona MAGA algorithm goes like this
Over promise
Under deliver
Lie
Declare victory
Leave or Victim Blame
Meanwhile, the economy falls into an economic recession/depression abyss!
I am A political. I call it as I see it. My religion is Economics, Charts, and money. They don't lie!
Click Boost, follow, and subscribe. Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help more people navigate these crazy markets.
Don't smoke the hopium crackpipe. It will financially ruin you.
Short Iron Condor, 7 Days till ExpirationNASDAQ:QQQ
+1 $508 call
-1 $505 call
---
-1 $405 put
+1 $402 put
4/30 Expiration (WED)
$50 credit, $250 max loss
5:1 risk:reward
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇪🇺 European Banks Brace for Tariff Impact: European banks are facing a challenging outlook as U.S. tariff hikes raise recession fears. Analysts anticipate slower revenue growth and increased loan loss provisions, with institutions like BNP Paribas expected to report earnings reflecting these pressures.
✈️ Airline Industry Faces Booking Declines: European airlines report a 3% drop in planned summer trips, with leisure travel down 8% compared to 2024. Economic concerns and rising travel costs, particularly among Gen Z travelers, are contributing factors. Airlines like Ryanair and Air France-KLM are considering fare adjustments to maintain demand.
👗 Kering's Revenue Drops Amid Gucci Struggles: Luxury group Kering reported a 14% decline in Q1 revenue, with flagship brand Gucci experiencing a 25% drop. The company attributes the downturn to ongoing brand challenges and macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending in key markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📦 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +2.1%
Previous: +0.9%
Measures new orders for manufactured durable goods, indicating manufacturing sector health.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 222,000
Previous: 215,000
Reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, signaling labor market trends.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.14 million
Previous: 4.26 million
Indicates the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold, providing insight into housing market conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Key Test of Resistance on QQQKey remount of the QQQ. We are over the 9ema and 20sma now and testing a huge supply zone that we need to eat thorugh. This ownt be easy as this 470 level is a huge supply but this can be the start of something. A couple days of chop here while we grind under the supply zone could set us up for higher prices. They key is to see how we react into this zone as the first test into that 470 we might get rejected in absence of news but we need the see the nature and structure of that pullback. We are by no way means out of the bear market this is a traders market but there are some green shoots. The market is shrugging off bad news and the trump team is trying to keep this market afloat by anymeans!
$SPY & $SPX Blocked @ the 1hr200MA, Daily 35EMA, Downtrend & GapThe 35EMA across timeframes really doesn’t disappoint. This is the Daily timeframe.
We had the 1hr 200MA, the Downtrend Line off of all time highs, and the 35EMA on the daily timeframe. We were not going anywhere. And add to that the MASSIVE bear gap.
Good Job today if you guys took any of the trades I posted either here or on the video last night - every one closed up 100%
"SPY & SPX Stalled: 200MA, 35EMA, Downtrend & Bear Gap Clash!"
GLD Will TOP SOON - Good For Crypto and AltsGLD has been on a tear lately, but I believe the rally will come to an end next week. This will be good for BTC and Alts. First looking at the RSI on GLD we can see it is now overbought on a monthly and this somehow coincides with the April 2 deadline on Tariffs. IMO I think this is a trap and GLD will begin to fall after it reaches just above the line I have in the chart.
XBI-SPY overlay unravels great bear?Undead Bear Captain's Log, Apr 7 2025:
Writing some observations due to a lurking feeling of something ominous about to happen:
Bizarre signs in the wind since mid-March, such as VVIX/VIX
Sudden downslide last week, almost unprecedented
Minimal put action - bear breathen all obliterated
Overlay of infant XBI and adolescent SPY suggests 3 year rally was nothing more than smoke & mirrors
XBI bearish running flat?
SPY extreme expanded flat?
If true, this could sink ships - many many ships...
Out
SPY Long and Neutralnear demand Zone,
Long entry 516
no Stop ,
Target 530
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
SMH correction areaThe SMH likes to check up on the 50 month moving average every 2.5 years or so. It has gone 20 bars since it's last check, so i would expect a test within the next year to 16 months.
IWM Has Bottomed but Not Ready Yet for Trend ShiftWhat Price Action Says:
After a sharp decline, IWM has experienced a 15% rebound, signaling the end of the bearish trend. However, this doesn't mean the market is ready to shift upward just yet.
For now, the most probable scenario is sideways movement, likely continuing through the end of Q2. A sustained upward move will require confirmation of a clear bottoming process, which has not been seen at this stage.
Key levels to watch are support at 185 and resistance at 200. Until we see more confirmation of a stable base, expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase.
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF | BITB | Long at $46.25It definitely should get everyone's attention when a US Senator (David McCormick) is willing to dish out up to $600,000 in a Bitcoin ETF ( AMEX:BITB ):
Feb. 27: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
Feb. 28: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 3: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
March 5: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 10: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
March 11: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 13: Bought $15,000 to $50,000
March 20: Bought $50,000 to $100,000
Something may be brewing this year with the "U.S. crypto reserve" and I'll throw down a couple grand at $46.25 with a self-proclaimed wild prediction into 2026: Bitcoin to $120,000.
Bitwise ETF Targets:
$50.00
$55.00
$60.00
$65.00
$UVXY to $100+Unfortunately many of my charts were removed by a moderator for having private indicators on them (which I didn't realize was a thing), so I have to repost them.
If we look at the chart, we broke out of a bull flag and are now testing a very strong support level.
You can see we've bounced off of that level multiple times. I think we bounce off of this level again and continue higher from here.
I have no clue what the cause for this move will be, but it looks like we're set for a large move up to the $98-106 resistances with possibility for an extended move up to the top resistances.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming weeks. Key dates and levels on the chart.
QQQ Don't Get Honey Dicked!These moves are designed to provoke emotions. Don't get fooled! Nothing has changed! Tariffs are not the problem; they are only a symptom of it.
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