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ARKK: when a breakout isn’t just a breakout-it’s a runway to $91On the weekly chart, ARKK has broken out of a long-standing ascending channel, ending a year-long consolidation phase. The breakout above $71.40, with a confident close and rising volume, signals a transition from accumulation to expansion. The move came right after a golden cross (MA50 crossing MA200), further confirming institutional interest. Price has already cleared the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements — and the 1.618 extension points to $91.40 as the next technical target. Momentum indicators like MACD and stochastic remain bullish with room to run. Volume profile shows low supply above $75, which could fuel an acceleration toward the target zone. Fundamentally, ARKK remains a high-beta, high-risk vehicle — but one with focus. The ETF is positioned around next-gen tech: AI, robotics, biotech, and automation. Assets under management now exceed $9.3B with +$1.1B net inflow in 2025. YTD return stands at 37%, and its top holdings (TSLA, NVDA, COIN) are back in favor. This isn’t just a bet on innovation — it’s diversified exposure to a full-blown tech rally. Tactical setup: — Entry: market $69.50 or on retest — Target: $80.21 (1.272), $91.40 (1.618 Fibo) Sometimes a breakout is just technical. But when there’s volume, a golden cross, and billions backing it — it’s a signal to buckle up.
CBOE:ARKKLong
by TotoshkaTrades
What Is The Market Waiting For?Good Morning Trading Fam, Our stock and crypto markets seem to have stalled. You may be wondering what they are waiting for. Quite simply, the S&P 500 has reached a double-top. That's all. There may be some more pause here for the next week or so. Barring any significant bearish geopolitical or other events, I expect us to move higher. Any FUD at all will send the market back down again. So yes, unfortunately, the next move(s) will be mostly predicated on news. Traders are rather fragile rn. Trade accordingly. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Elliott Wave Insight: GDX Climbs Higher After Three Wave DeclineThe rally in the Gold Miners Junior ETF (GDX) from its December 30, 2024 low remains intact. This rally is unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern, as observed on the 1-hour chart below. Wave (4) of this impulse concluded at $44.75, setting the stage for wave (5) higher. Wave (5) is currently progressing with its own impulsive subdivision. From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) peaked at $46.70, followed by a pullback in wave ((ii)) to $45.19. The ETF then surged in wave ((iii)) to $54.62. Subsequent correction in wave ((iv)) ended at $51.12. The final leg, wave ((v)), completed at $54.73, marking the end of wave 1 in the higher degree. Following this, GDX entered a corrective wave 2, characterized by a clear seven-swing corrective structure. From the wave 1 peak, wave ((w)) declined to $52.19. It was then followed by a recovery in wave ((x)) to $53.74. The subsequent wave ((y)) bottomed at $50.70, completing wave 2. The ETF has since bounced from the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension zone of $49.61–$51.18. Currently, GDX could either resume its rally to new highs or stage a three-wave bounce before a potential larger double correction. However, even if a deeper pullback occurs, the corrective nature of the decline from the wave 1 peak supports a bullish outlook, suggesting that any downturn is likely a temporary pause within an ongoing uptrend.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Bottom in for bonds, flight to safety trade coming soon $100+If we look at the chart of TLT, you can see that we're forming a bottoming reversal pattern. We had a spike low down to $83 back to the middle of May and have now reclaimed the structure. I think that move marked the bottom. I think it's very likely that bonds spike in the near future, if they can make it over the $92 resistance level, then I think price will see continuation and likely break the pattern finding the first resistance at that $101 level. That said, I think this is the start of a larger move higher in bonds that will take us all the way up to the top resistance levels over the course of the next few years before the move is done and we start the long term trend in rates higher.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
RePOST - Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025 QQQ Weekly Technical Breakdown – Week of June 22, 2025 After a strong rally earlier in June, QQQ printed a wide daily broadening formation on Friday with an outside day that expanded Thursday’s range. This pattern signals indecision and possible structural recalibration. The final minutes of trading saw significant volatility due to quad witching flows, as institutions unwound or rolled large options positions. Monday’s open will be critical to confirm whether bulls hold or if a breakdown unfolds. The short-term range is wide, with support at 525.89 and resistance near 533.66. A breakout above 533.66 opens the door to all-time highs around 536.78. On the downside, an unfilled fair value gap spans 522.70 to 520.69, which could attract price if weakness develops. Intraday traders should watch pivots at 525.89, 527.27, 528.61, and 530.45 for scalps and key reactions. Technical Summary • Structure: Outside day forming a wide daily broadening formation • Friday Note: Quad witching flows in the final minutes caused order flow imbalances and aggressive re-hedging • Daytrade Pivots: 525.89, 527.27, 528.61, and 530.45 remain active intraday reaction points • Macro View: Clean daily close above 533.66 supports upside momentum and breakout potential • Downside Risk: Unfilled fair value gap from 522.70 to 520.69; holding above 525.89 early week is critical • Momentum Bias: Friday’s candle signals indecision; Monday likely to define near-term direction Key Levels to Watch 🟢 Upside Resistance: 527.27 (reclaim level), 528.61 (mid-range pivot), 530.45 (resistance zone), 531.87 (continuation trigger), 533.66 (breakout confirmation), 536.78 (all-time high territory) 🔴 Downside Support: 525.89 (must hold early week), 524.02 (range low / breakdown trigger), 522.70 (FVG gap top), 520.69 (FVG gap bottom), 519.86 (trend support) Trade Plan • Hold above 525.89 to target 533+ early in the week • Daily close above 533.66 signals potential breakout run • Break below 524.02 shifts focus to gap fill 522.70–520.69 • Intraday scalps effective between 525.89 and 530.45 Decision Map 🟩 IF QQQ HOLDS ABOVE 525.89 → reclaim 527.27 / 528.61 → target 530.45 → 533.66 → breakout toward 536.78 (ATH) 🟥 IF QQQ BREAKS BELOW 525.89 → watch 524.02 (structure break) → target 522.70 → 520.69 (gap fill) → trend pivot 519.86 Primary Trade Zone: 525.89–530.45 Alert List for Key Levels Set alerts above price: 527.27, 530.45, 533.66 Set alerts below price: 525.89, 524.02, 522.70, 520.69 This Week’s Key Catalysts for QQQ QQQ ’s price action this week will be influenced by a combination of major economic releases and Fed commentary, alongside ongoing macro and geopolitical factors impacting the tech sector. • The most important catalyst is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, June 24. Powell’s remarks on the economic outlook and future rate policy could drive volatility and directional bias in QQQ , especially given market anticipation around possible rate cuts later this year. • Additional Fed insights will come from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s speeches on Tuesday and Thursday, which could reinforce or add nuance to Powell’s tone. • Inflation and economic data releases throughout the week—including durable goods orders, GDP revisions, consumer sentiment, and personal income/spending reports—will help shape market expectations for Fed policy, a major driver for growth stocks like those in $QQQ. • The quad witching event last Friday increased short-term volatility and order flow imbalances, impacting the current technical setup. • Longer-term geopolitical issues, including export restrictions on semiconductor technology and institutional buying trends, remain background factors but are less likely to move QQQ sharply this week absent new headlines. Traders should monitor these catalysts closely and combine them with technical levels and price action to navigate the week effectively.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 6-25 : Breakaway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to move into another breakaway price move - very similar to yesterday's price move. I will add that I believe the SPY cycle patterns have already moved through a breakaway phase with the ceasefire news early this week. I believe the gap and breakaway move yesterday may be the breakaway trend we are expecting today. That would suggest the markets could pause and pullback a bit over the next few days. Gold and Silver are trying to find a bottom after the brief selling that took place over the past few days. I really do believe Gold and Silver are poised to make a big move higher. Bitcoin is on a terror to the upside. But be cautious of the downward cycle channel that may prompt a rollover in BTCUSD near the $107,500 level. I spend a little time near the end of this video highlighting my work on the Tesla 3-6-9 price theory and going over a few examples for my new book on trading. Enjoy the quick look at some of the more advanced techniques I'm working to unlock for all of you. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY GEX & Technical Setup – Aiming for Gamma Lift-Off?GEX Outlook (June 24, 2025):
SPY is sitting right on top of a major Gamma Wall at 607–610, with high net positive GEX and strong Call Wall stacking above. The 2nd Call Wall (609) and GEX10 (611) suggest bullish optionality remains intact if SPY can hold above 605. * GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🟢🟢 * IVR: 13.7 (low implied volatility rank, bullish) * IVx Avg: 16.7 * Put Walls: Strong support at 595 and 591 * Call Pressure: Builds up from 605 to 611 📌 This is a prime environment for long CALLs, especially for traders expecting momentum continuation through 607+. Price Action (1H): Smart Money Concepts Perspective * Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed at ~606 * Retest held strong near 600.15–604.45, validating support * Clear bullish CHoCH and BOS sequence with strong volume * Current candle consolidation inside a small supply zone near 607 (possible pause before continuation) Support Zones: * 604.45: First line of defense * 600.15: Breaker block retest * 591.90: Ultimate bear invalidation zone Resistance Targets: * 610: Next major target (2nd Call Wall) * 611+: GEX10/extension zone for squeeze 🔍 Trade Idea (Scalp or Swing) Bullish Scenario (CALLs setup): * Entry: On retest of 604.5–605 zone * Target: 610–611 (Gamma zone breakout) * Stop: Below 600.15 * Options Play: Buy 610C 0DTE/1DTE if intraday bounce confirmed above 605 or breakout continuation above 607 Bearish Reversal? * Only if SPY breaks below 600 with momentum + volume. Otherwise, dip = opportunity. Summary:
SPY is riding a strong bullish structure with GEX favoring upward pressure. As long as 604–605 holds, dips are for buying. Watch 607–610 for breakout confirmation. Options market flow supports further upside if volatility remains controlled. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SOXL 1D — With a base like this, the ride’s worth itOn the daily chart of SOXL, since early March, a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed and is now in its activation phase. The left shoulder sits at $16.67, the head at $7.21, and the right shoulder at $15.11. The symmetry is classic, with volume stabilization and a narrowing range — all the elements are in place. The key moment was the breakout through the descending daily trendline around $19.00. Price didn’t just pierce the level — it held above it, signaling a phase shift. There was an attempt to break through the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $19.60, which led to a pullback — not on heavy selling, but on decreasing volume. This wasn’t a rejection, it was a pause. This pullback serves as a retest of the breakout zone and the 20-day moving average. The overall structure remains bullish: price stays above all key EMAs and MAs, RSI climbs past 60, and the candlestick structure is stable. Volume rises during up moves and fades during pullbacks — classic signs of reaccumulation. The measured target from the pattern is $32.00, calculated from the head-to-neckline height projected from the breakout point. As long as price holds above $18.40, the setup remains intact. A break above $19.60 with confirmation would open the door to acceleration. This isn’t a momentum play — it’s a setup months in the making. The structure is there, the confirmation is there, and most importantly — the price behavior makes sense. With a base like this, the ride ahead looks worth taking.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by TotoshkaTrades
4
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Slides on Middle East Ceasefire Optimism A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran lifted risk sentiment across global markets. The U.S. dollar weakened, while the euro and British pound hovered near multi‑year highs 📈 Equities Near Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed toward all-time highs on June 25, supported by the Middle East truce and retreating energy prices. The S&P 500 rallied ~1.1%, with tech and discretionary sectors leading the charge 🛢 Oil & Treasuries Dip, Yield Cuts Anticipated Oil plunged ~6% to ~$65/bbl as conflict fears eased. Softer prices plus weak consumer confidence spurred expectations of up to 60 bps in Fed rate cuts by December; Treasury yields pulled back accordingly 📉 Consumer Confidence Falls Again The Conference Board’s index dropped to 93—the lowest level since May 2020—as concerns over tariffs and job availability weighed on households 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, June 25: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets remain focused on geopolitical dynamics, Fed commentary, and next week’s PCE inflation release. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #inflation #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Affirms Bullish Outlook with Five Wave RallyThe Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has continued its upward trajectory, confirming a five-wave Elliott Wave structure originating from the April 7, 2025 low. This development solidifies a bullish market outlook and eliminates the possibility of a double correction scenario. Starting from the April 7 low, wave (1) concluded at 443.14. Wave (2) pullback then followed which ended at 404.44. Subsequently, the ETF surged in wave (3) to 537.5, exhibiting an internal five-wave impulse structure. As depicted in the 1-hour chart, the wave (4) pullback unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave pattern. From the wave (3) peak, wave W declined to 524.61, and wave X rebounded to 535.37. Last leg wave Y descended to 523.65, completing wave (4) at a higher degree. The ETF has since resumed its ascent in wave (5). From the wave (4) low, wave 1 of (5) is nearing completion, with a forthcoming wave 2 pullback expected to correct the cycle from the June 24, 2025 low before the rally resumes. This pullback should attract buyers at the 3, 7, or 11 swing levels, setting the stage for further upside potential. The bullish structure underscores confidence in continued upward momentum for QQQ.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
XLE Setting Up For a Run? XLE is looking to create a new run? Possibly with that inverted hammer that we see where sellers failed. It just made a huge gap down that will need to be filled. I could see it testing the $83.41 support and resistance shelf and retracing back to the upside to close the gaps back through $86.41. Looks like much of this can be completed in 3 months, provided the momentum trend and sentiment doesn't change. We have some cooling of the RSI and MACD along with a dividend payment that just came on June 23, 2025. So, now let's look for more upside momentum. My stop loss is around $83.41 and profit targets are $86.41 and $87.80. As always, do your own research and due diligence. These are my views and not trading or investing advice.
AMEX:XLELong
by GlennTrading
$USO Calls entered 6/24With our current geopolitical standing, the degree of the drop the 23rd-24th of June, and the direction. analysis of the SPX, I believe we have been presented with a very fruitful opportunity. We've seen a NASTY dip after what seems to be a 5 wave move up. After drawing fib retracements, we closed the market with a small dip under the .5 retracement level. its HERE i added. Should The indexes react to their potential "Abandoned Baby" setups, Oil should rebound.
AMEX:USOLong
by NoProCharts
1
6/24/25 - $SPY - punchbowl musings. moar upside into YE.6/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: pondering $SPY/M2 I'll attempt to keep this punchy. - Moar upside into YE, but with a few bumps along the road. We're probably due for a small garden variety pullback sooner vs. later. And it should be bought, without flinching. Index options are easiest and lowest risk way to play this trend, unless u like single names like me :) - I look at the above chart SPY/M2 (so S&P divided by M2) a lot - The last time it grabbed my interest was earlier this yr before the market did it's lil dip, now it's grabbing my interest again since we've played out a bottom and a recovery - I wonder... is px action going to follow '98 (door 1) or the trapdoors of '08/09 (door 2)/ '20 (door 3)/ '22 (door 4). - I suspect it's closer to '98 (and btw had this thesis before seeing the recovery in the last two months, so it's played out) - While any event can cause the market to reset another 20-30% from here, the problem is "we don't have this event". Clearly war (at least an escalating one, not a multi-week headline-driven one - sad as any war is) won't do it. Also the Fed is just about telling Trump to suck the long one... and even that rates might go higher, but the mkt also is either ignoring this/ or frankly- might acknowledge it and doesn't care. Also we have a consumer recession on the horizon - this is no surprise to many of us. Market still doesn't really care. So what kind of event is it? - Well in door 2 we had a pretty gnarly set of defaults in US housing. Will this happen again? Probably not in housing, there will be pockets, yes. But these sorts of things typically don't repeat, esp with the money printer locked and loaded. - Door 3 was a "pandemic" (quotes intended) which freaked everyone out. Well played Klaus. But doubtful that card can be re-played without also seeing the money bazooka locked and loaded. - Door 4 was rates FINALLY seeing liftoff after over a decade. But now they're pretty restrictive. Can they get more restrictive? Sure. But will they go up another 2...3...4...%? Unlikely. Direction ultimately is probably lower *eventually*, even if there's a bit more economic pain on mainstreet. - So door 1 is somewhat unique. The market doesn't remember that timeframe well. And it feels like tech is back in that sweetspot. Mag 7 (just use QQQ on it's IWM- small cap pair) so QQQ/IWM or even SPY/IWM (both contain similar mag 7 weightings) shows no brakes. Hard to see why I'd rather pay 15 or 20x for a small cap with mid singles growth and no margin or moat vs. say NVDA at a slight premium. You get the point. So I think we're back there. - Does that mean we get a garden variety pullbacks here/there along the way as headlines hit? Probably. I see a lot of crazy 0dte'ing all over the place. The cheapest and probably most profitable way to play that would simply be sticking to index options, tbh. But alas, that's not a 10 or 20x ;) - Could a consumer recession in 2H keep stonks flat or only +5-10% higher capped until we can see "beyond"? Maybe. But remember, the big leaders (most Mag 7) are B2B and AI-driven. So you can paint an earnings story (lower costs b/c of tech) even if the top-lines are challenged. Again, let's see. - Alas people have been DM'ing me "WHY ARE YOU SHORT?" - Simply put, I have conviction in a very few number of things right now on the long side. I do think the market will tend to see higher highs, and there's not an obvious reason why that ends, just yet. And the market needs a reason to go down, not up. - However, a lot of ETFs I've found to short are offering me ATM exposure for 5-10x leverage for very very little premium (low IV) relative to picking and banging my head causing brain damage to keep identifying the single names. Most of these ETFs own "the same company" which all trade correlation 1... so in any garden variety pullback, they will all trade v similarly and so I'd rather just pay less for the hedge. - Therefore I remain with high BTC exposure (vis a vis OTC:OBTC ) at nearly 50% of my book. I think this converts to ETF in the next 90 days, giving me another 10-12% pop (as it's 88-90% discount to spot). Therefore, I can pack just a 1.4% IBIT ATM short (vis a vis puts) for nearly half this exposure. If BTC runs, as I expect, but can't predict exactly (EVEN IF THE CONVERT DOESN'T HAPPEN), I lose the 1.4% but probably pick up a solid 10...15...20% on this OBTC exposure. Seems like a good hedge. - Same thing for BUG, ROBT, UFO... IV is just low. These are all correlation 1 baskets. They let me offset my NXT and GAMB size. That's all. I'm not calling "SHORT IT ALL" but rather, if things keep running "yes" i'll make less... but I believe my long exposure OBTC/ NXT and GAMB will outrun these ETFs. And even if they are similar in px action... I'll just make less, but it will still be positive. - Now if the market really does puke 10-15 or 20%... I'll take these shorts and just deploy across all the work on single names I like. V likely the usual suspects are the one's I've written about and I'd size these up. King among them will be BTC. Hope that helps. I like looking at this chart. Perhaps you have one that catches your attention too... that allows us a glimpse around what inning we're in. The TL;DR is I think we're in inning 7 of this multi-decade run. I'd guess a true top gets put in in the coming years. But unlikely this year. And I'd be surprised if we retest the Mar/ Apr lows. Dips of the 5-10% size should be bought aggressively, not feared. Alas who knows. I don't have a crystal ball. V
AMEX:SPYLong
by VROCKSTAR
Give It The Gas I've got a long Idea for the Henry Hub Natural Gas ETF, UNG. After rising in late-2024/early-2025, UNG fell again (Mar-Jun), but recently (significantly) crossed above the trendline from that down move. Time to look for a long position. But UNG is volatile - to reduce risk it's best to pick it up after a minor pullback. That seems to be happening now. One thing I find useful when looking at an ETF backed by a commodity is to look at the chart for the underlying commodity future. To be clear, I am NOT trading the future, only looking to it for (more) guidance. In this case, for UNG, I chose the Aug Henry Hub Natural Gas contract (NGQ2025), which TradingView provides 10-minute delayed date for; Here we see the trendline (light blue) is even stronger (i.e., more points of contact). In addition, the contract made a series of slightly higher lows (yellow line) before breaking through strong resistance at ~3.82 (a level which may now be providing support). Trendline breaks alone can be very flighty - they often don't work - so it helps to have other supporting factors (e.g., higher lows preceding, strong resistance breaks). And, not shown here but useful, UNG/NG is not overbought on the daily chart. Now one could take a long position here, with a stop below the trendline, but I prefer my knives to at least slow down before I catch them. Looking at the 4-hour chart for a reversal to enter; A reversal and close above 3.92 would give a good entry point (using UNG), with a tighter stop at ~3.7 (or ~16.25 on UNG). This is a "work in progress", so the actual trigger levels may change a bit. Or the whole setup could invalidate itself if the instrument(s) corrects back to at/below the trendline. For targets, natural gas has resistance at 19.1 and again at 24.0 - best to trail a stop as UNG's price rises, bringing it up as each zone is hit. For the long position, I anticipate an ITM option ~90 days out. I'm doing this in a taxable account, and for tax purposes UNG issues a K-1 to shareholders. I can do without the hassle. Option holders do not receive K-1's* (unless assigned), making tax reporting more routine. Time to step on the gas? *To the best of my knowledge - if any tax experts here know otherwise please drop a comment. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:UNGLong
by TheUncertainTrader
All That Glitters Is Not Gold (But Silver?)And another long Idea - this time in the Silver ETF, SLV. Looking at the daily chart for SLV, a couple of things standout from a few days ago; - The price just broke the all-time high at 31.80, along with significant resistance at ~31.50, and - SLV gapped up, leaving tight stops a bit problematic. As I've said before in this instance I do two things; 1. Wait for a pullback (which we're now seeing?), and 2. Switch to the commodity futures chart (emphasis - I'm not trading the future, just taking a look) Using the July Silver contract on the CME; We can see the breakout, and now the retest(s), of two critical highs from the last few months. Switching down '1' interval, to the 4-hour chart; We can see 3-4 retests of those old highs, which now may be acting as support. I've drawn in a short-term trendline and resistance. A cross of that trendline and a close above 36.260 should provide a good entry point. A stop could then be placed at 35.00 (with a close below that on the 4-hour), just below this recent turmoil. As for targets, this scenario has SLV making new all-time highs - best to just trail and let SLV tell you where to exit. All that glitters.. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:SLVLong
by TheUncertainTrader
1
SPY 15-Min — Weak-High Sweep in Play• Discount BOS at 603.95 → impulsive leg to 606.7 (0.886) • Weak high tagged at 607.16 – expecting continuation to 1.382 ≈ 608.61 then 1.854 ≈ 610.92 • Invalidation if price closes below 605.45 session VWAP band • Targets: 608.61 → 610.92 • Risk: stop 604.9 (below 0.5 Fib) VolanX bias remains risk-on while micro structure stair-steps above the 9-EMA channel. Educational only – not financial advice #SPY #SMP500 #OrderFlow #Fib #VolanX #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC