ETF market
Europe Vs US Break Out!This chart suggests huge long-term implications after breaking for the 2nd time this 16-year downtrend. EU since Trump took office has outperformed the US by 23%!
More than half of that has occurred since the ambush on Zeleneskyy in the Oval Office.
While no new high has been made yet to confirm, it is noteworthy that money may be flowing toward the EU more than the US for a decade or more.
EU has a much lower debt to GDO at 80% than the US at 125%. Stock valuations are much more attractive than in the US. So much so that I labeled the EU as a value trap. Not anymore!
The biggest obstacle right now is how much would a US recession impact the EU. Even if it does, I expect the EU to perform much better than the US. As such this chart should continue to outperform.
I have another post up you may want to follow.
UVXY shortVIX above regular range
After SPY quick down, VIX is high, there might be sideway consolidation.
Short entry 40
Stop 50,
Target 35
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
S&P 500, SPY, US stocksSPY seems to have reached the bottom of the correction and should now slowly begin an uptrend again. Confluence with high volume support below these levels, VIX peaked, correction wave C to more than 100% of leg A, support by the earlier top.
Further downside of course possible, but at this point it makes sense to hold the positions as the market is very oversold.
Decoding Gold's Ascent Through Fibonacci Channels.The price of gold has been exhibiting a discernible pattern, closely tracking Fibonacci channel levels. This upward trajectory, characterized as a "gold buyers' train," has seen the price ascend through various Fibonacci channels.
Notably, the price encountered resistance and stalled upon reaching a key Fibonacci level, often referred to as the "golden ratio" or a similar significant Fibonacci retracement or extension point.
This phenomenon has been observed repeatedly; since 2020, the price action has twice reached and subsequently been halted at specific Fibonacci channel levels, suggesting these levels act as strong areas of either support or resistance depending on the direction of the movement.
Currently, the price is approaching a third Fibonacci channel level, implying a potential continuation of this established pattern and requiring careful monitoring to determine if the same resistive behavior will manifest again, or if the price will finally break through to higher levels within the Fibonacci sequence.
This repetitive interaction with Fibonacci levels underscores their significance as potential indicators of future price movements in the gold market.
VXX shortVIX above regular range
After SPY quick down, VIX is high, there might be sideway consolidation.
Long entry 76
no Stop ,
Target 40
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next (chart)b]๐ The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next
Video idea here:
Friends, if youโve seen my last two posts, you already know โ weโre no longer relying on broken halving cycles or outdated narratives.
Weโre now in the realm of The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cyclesโข by FXPROFESSOR โ a framework that maps how trust moves between Bitcoin and traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries .
And todayโs update? It might be the most important one yet.
๐ Quick Recap: What Is This Model?
This model tracks Bitcoinโs relationship to long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT), cycling between:
โข Correlated Periods (Blue): BTC and TLT move in the same direction
โข Inverted Periods (Green): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions
And hereโs the magic:
These flips often occur right at key structural levels in the bond market.
๐ง Where Are We Now?
Weโre still in an Inverted Period โ the 6th major one.
โข TLT (Treasuries) are dropping again
โข Bitcoin is rising against that backdrop
โข The previous support at ~86.8 failed โ we are now sliding toward the next major level
That level?
๐ 71.32 โ the all-time structural support for TLT going back to 2004
Itโs the same zone that sparked Bitcoinโs explosive moves in the past.
๐ My Expectation:
โข TLT continues sliding lower
โข It finds support around 71โ76
โข Once that happens, we enter a Reversion Phase โ where Bitcoin and TLT rise together again
โข Bitcoin doesnโt just โsurviveโ the macro shakeout โ it thrives on it
This would be the 6th inversion-to-correlation flip in the model โ and historically, these have marked powerful Bitcoin trends.
๐ Why This Model Matters
This isn't just about price.
Itโs about trust .
Itโs about rotation .
Itโs about macro capital flow .
Forget halving hype โ this model focuses on how institutional trust migrates between old systems (bonds) and new systems (Bitcoin).
When TLT fails, Bitcoin rises.
When TLT finds support, Bitcoin joins in.
This is not just a macro hedge.
This is the new cycle narrative .
๐ What to Watch:
โข Does TLT drop to 71?
โข Do we find a bottom and reverse?
โข Does BTC correlate again and break out above 115?
If so โ we may be on the cusp of a new correlated bull leg .
This post builds on the foundation I laid here:
๐
๐
This is part 3.
The signal is there.
The rotation is happening.
The trust is shifting.
Are you watching?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ๐
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next๐ The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles Model: What Comes Next
Friends, if youโve seen my last two posts, you already know weโre not talking about your average halving theory anymore. We're entering a new era of Bitcoin cycle analysis โ and this model may change the way we look at macro rotation forever.
This is an update to The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cyclesโข by FXPROFESSOR โ a cyclical framework built around one question:
When trust flows in and out of traditional assets like Treasury bonds... what does Bitcoin do?
In this post, we zoom into the latest data: โข TLT is testing key support again โข Bitcoin is still rising โ but in an inverted period โข The next major reversion event may be approaching
I'll walk you through what happens when correlation flips , why these cycles compress over time, and how we could be approaching the next Bitcoin surge โ not because of supply, but because of macro trust flow .
If youโve been wondering whatโs really moving the market... this might be the chart youโve been missing.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR ๐
Short term high QQQ tgt $434I had a great day with dowsing the highs & lows on QQQ today, and since hitting this high, I asked what's next & keep getting breakdown.
I did a week by week reading at the beginning of the month, and this week is supposed to take a bit of a dive & be "bottoming out". The weekly readings have been pretty helpful, so I hope this continues.
Anyway, this could be absolutely incorrect, but twice I've gotten a move to the downside on QQQ of around 5.6-.7%.
I also got some figures lower, but I'm not confident they are prices. They were 425-22. Sometimes numbers come that are something other than what I ask or expect, so it can get confusing. It's possible there's another little pop first, but It seems like a drop is imminent according to my work. Watch for a low on Wed./Thurs? I have lots of dates for this week including for a high today.
SPY short targets for this weekI expect this area to offer at least a bounce. There may be something like that on Thursday.
This is based on my dowsing work. I also left my prior idea, which was done at the beginning of the month to see how things shake out with projecting week by week with my work.
Obviously, the standout dates were very relevant. I don't get that there are any new dates to add.
Intuitively, I will say I heard the word, "floor". So where we land may be support for a bit?
We'll see. I'm still very new at intuitively hearing/receiving messages & things.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 21 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 21, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Industrial ETF May Face ResistanceThe SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF dropped in early April, and some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on todayโs chart is the March 13 low of $128.26. XLI peaked $0.44 under that level this month, which may suggest old support has become new resistance.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently had a โdeath crossโ below its 200-day SMA. That may suggest the long-term trend has gotten more bearish.
Third, the stochastics oscillatorโs leading line crossed under the smoothing signal line.
Fourth, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained under the 21-day EMA.
Finally, XLI hit a 52-weeek low of $112.75 on April 7. Is a retest of that support needed?
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF (XLI)
1-year: +4.06%
5-years: +122.11%
10-year: +135.02%
(As of March 31, 2025)
Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
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QQQ, Weekly RSI has reached oversold territory just 4 other timeIt's also came at or near a long-term bottom.
If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention.
The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory โ something thatโs only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend.
Weโre also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline thatโs defined the bull market since 2018.
If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, Iโll be looking to go long.
Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms.
Not calling the exact bottom โ just positioning where the risk makes sense.
SPY -Europe closed. Jap deal failure. Big move todayEurope market being closed major traders from europe will be absent. This will allow big move in the USA market today. Also Japanese deal failure will sink the market
Market has again somewhat formed a Head-Shoulder pattern. Target for the week 498
$DIA - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened DIA with a gap up and over the trump tweet gap and we were met with resistance right at the downward facing 30min 200MA
You can see the three arrows all week โ you donโt want to go long at a downward facing moving average.
Wednesday UHC and Jerome powell both took a toll on the Dow, and Friday we gapped down and traded near the bottom of the implied move.
I look to the Dow as a leading indicator of market health. When we started in slide down off of ATHโs we saw it in the DOW first. Dow had a rough week here last week. Red 35EMA rejected at the 30min 200MA
Technically a beautiful week. All while closing within the implied move.
ALSO - take a look at where we saw the signal line turn red.
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again.
Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again.
Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. We did drop underneath that 35EMA on Wednesday when Jerome powell spoke and then reclaimed it on Friday!!
So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of Trumps Week gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again.
Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again.
Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200.
So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of the interest rate gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
$QQQ - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically donโt want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing down almost 3%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically donโt want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
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