Get started

ETF market

SPY bear market?The causes of a bear market often vary, but in general, a weak or slowing or sluggish economy, bursting market bubbles, pandemics, wars, geopolitical crises, and drastic paradigm shifts in the economy such as shifting to an online economy, are all factors that might cause a bear market. One definition of a bear market says markets are in bear territory when stocks, on average, fall at least 20% off their high. But 20% is an arbitrary number, just as a 10% decline is an arbitrary benchmark for a correction. Another definition of a bear market is when investors are more risk-averse than risk-seeking. This kind of bear market can last for months or years as investors shun speculation in favor of boring, sure bets. SPY macro levels: resistance: 613 pivot: 480 support: 348
AMEX:SPYShort
by Options360
1
SPY/QQQ NQ/ES 29 de Abril 2025Market Outlook (QQQ / NQ Analysis) 📅 Date: April 29, 2025 🕰 Timeframe: 30-minute 📈 Asset: Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) / NQ Futures 📊 Gamma Reference: SpotGamma levels with Zero Gamma & Put/Call Walls 🧠 Key Levels & Price Map Level Type QQQ Price NQ Equivalent Comment Call Wall (3) 478 19760 / 19800 🔼 Target 6 - Bullish Exhaustion Target Long 477 19720 🔼 Target 5 Call Wall / RB Head 475 19620 🔼 Target 4 / High Confluence Call Wall 472 19500 🔼 Target 3 RB Bottom 470.89 — Intermediate Resistance Put Wall (1) 470 19420 🔼 Target 2 (bullish if broken) Fib 0.5 468.78 — Reversal Zone Put Wall (2) 467 19340 🔽 Target 1 - Short Bias Begins Put Wall (3) 465 19220 🔽 Target 3 - Strong Bearish Zone 📉 Gamma & Sentiment Context Zero Gamma: At 468 – market may be more volatile below this level. Vol Trigger: At 467 – below this level, dealers may hedge by selling, increasing downside pressure. Put Walls: Act as potential support or reversal zones (465, 467, 470). Call Walls: Act as resistance or bullish break levels (472, 475, 478). 🧭 Possible Scenarios 📈 Bullish Path If price breaks above 470, next long target is 472, then 475 (high confluence with RB Head and Call Wall). Above 475, potential acceleration toward 478–479 (high call gamma zone). 📉 Bearish Path Rejection at 470–472 could lead to a retest of 467, then 465. Below 465, expect a push toward 19300–19220 NQ, aligning with the lower Put Walls.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by JCAVGROUP
MSTU (T-REX 2× Long MSTR Daily)Chart targets Support at the Ichimoku Kumo top (~ 7.40 – 7.50) on 1 H & daily – this is your “buy zone.” Initial upside to 8.10–8.30 — where yesterday’s 5 min candles peaked and the daily cloud resistance sits. Secondary target ~ 9.00 — prior swing high from last December. CSP entries (May 16) Sell the 7.50 puts CSP's Only do this if MSTU holds 7.40–7.50 on an intraday pullback. Keep a stop if price closes below 7.30 on 30 min. Alternatively, stagger 7.25 & 7.00 strikes to pick up extra premium if you want deeper support. MSTR (MicroStrategy) – Earnings on May 1 Date: May 1, 2025 Street consensus: +$0.06 EPS vs prior miss of –$3.03. Social sentiment: extremely polarized – Bitcoin bulls are hopeful a beat will turbo-charge the stock, but skeptics point to ongoing cash burn and debt load. Plan: Stay size-light into the print. Look for a volatility crush post-earnings to sell short-dated calls (or buy deep ITM CSP) if you’re neutral-to-bullish. If they beat and BTC holds above 95 K, MSTR could rip back toward its January highs near $540 – but that’s a multi-day swing, not today’s game. Risk Management: MSTU CSP: don’t sell more than 1/2 your normal size—earnings skew implied vol across the board. News watch: any Tweet from Michael Saylor or a surprise Bitcoin ETF update can blow these levels out in minutes.
CBOE:MSTU
by Scotchy_Scotch
Leaving Breadcrumbs For A Swing Or Setting A Trap?In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases and large cap earnings should energize the market. While “C” waves are not required to meet specific sub-wave retracements, and can go straight to their targets without a significant pullback, we should still be prepared for the possibility of being faced with market whiplash. Taking all of this into account, I think there could be a pullback - especially after noticing an important clue right in front of me. AMEX:SPY has been rising higher for the last five sessions in a jerky uptrend from last week’s lows and is close to filling a gap/imbalance at the $555 level on the daily chart. There is also a gap from $529-$534, however the price is much closer to filling the upper gap. Other things I’m taking note of on the daily chart are the declining volume and a MA cross confirmation. The moving averages I’m using here are HMA (13; pink) EMA (34; yellow) and SMA (200; green), and I have found the Hull Moving Average crossing the Exponential Moving Average to be a fairly reliable indicator of a reversal. HMA will cross up on Tuesday if the price stays above the EMA. For a different perspective, the 1000R ($10) chart shows the price action a little more smoothly. I noticed that for the month of April, each time the price swung lower, it did so by around $35. If it is assumed that this pattern continues for one more swing lower in what would be wave (b) of C, the next question would be: to which retracement level it would go? There are a lot of people on the boards who think the price will move lower on Tuesday. If the price were to fall from around Monday’s close of $550, a $35 drop would take the price back to around $515, which would result in an approximately 80% retracement of wave (a). There is nothing wrong with this, and the price could reverse and extend to $580 from there, however I think such a deep retracement into wave (a) is the less likely scenario since the goal of this larger corrective wave is to keep the momentum moving higher to sell before the market tanks. I still charted it above to show what that would look like. Alternatively, I am expecting SPY to move higher on Tuesday and pull back Wednesday and Thursday to continue printing what appears to be clean and proportional movements here in the first major corrective wave of the bear market. The week ahead will have several events that could determine the market’s direction. The most important news should come from GDP and Core PCE data being released before the open on Wednesday. Regardless of how the market reacts, we can assume with relative confidence that the news will contribute to a large movement in price. Since I’m suggesting a $35 move down will happen at some point, I am anticipating Wednesday will start this movement. Above the $555 gap there is an order block that the price should be gravitating towards. This would be an ideal area to absorb buy orders before SPY gets sent down. Taking an educated guess, $565 could be a key level that marks the end of wave (a). A $35 reduction from there would see the price retrace 61.8% (0.382 level on the chart) to $530. Since there is another gap around this level, it should be a logical area for the price to move next before beginning its final rise to around $580. … This idea makes more assumptions than my last one, so please trust your own instincts and form your own opinions. The market can be unpredictable, so patterns can fail at any time. This is why it is important to stay vigilant. With that being said, I expect Tuesday to be another low volume day that could take the price in any direction; including sideways. Since Wednesday’s data should be a major driving force for price activity this week, it is important to assess which level the market is targeting just before the news comes out. We’ll see what happens, but I think institutions are going to look to prolong this corrective wave while they still can and offload shares at a good price, because the next time this sells off it will go much lower. I appreciate all of the feedback I received on my last post, and if you enjoyed this one I’d love to know what you think. Good luck to all.
AMEX:SPY
by ap769
4
Volatility Setup Likely: VIX Breakout + QQQ Rejection = Risk Summary: We now have alignment between two key charts: 🔹 VIX has broken major resistance with large institutional call buying 🔹 QQQ is facing trendline resistance with weakening momentum. The setup points to a potential volatility surge + tech pullback over the next 1–3 weeks. 📉 QQQ Technical Breakdown: QQQ is stalling under descending resistance from the February highs. Friday’s candle closed just under the downtrend line, with volume tapering off — a classic exhaustion signal. Multiple resistance zones cluster between 474–485, making this a high-friction zone. RSI is rolling under 55, stalling near its last bear rejection zone. Price is still trapped below the 100 EMA and 50 EMA, suggesting no clear bullish breakout yet. ⚠️ Key danger: If QQQ fails to reclaim 482–485, it risks reversing sharply toward 458–460, then possibly 440. 📈 VIX: Likely to Make a Big Move, Smart Money Buying Calls As QQQ weakens, the VIX has already broken out: Support flip at 23.50 is confirmed Price is hovering above 25, with all short-term EMAs stacked beneath (bullish configuration) Option flow for VIX is explosive: $4M+ on 21C (May) $2.2M on 22C (May) Heavy demand at 30C (May) and 34–70C for later months 📊 Interpretation: Institutions are positioning now for a volatility event before late May — possibly driven by a tech sector retracement. 🔄 The Macro Setup: Index Signal VIX Bullish — breakout, EMA support, aggressive call flow QQQ Bearish bias — resistance hold, weak volume, bearish structure RSI (both) Neutral zone with momentum divergence forming 🎯 Trading Outlook: Short bias on QQQ as long as it remains under 485 Long VIX exposure (direct or via calls) could be rewarded if QQQ falters Watch May 21 and May 22 for VIX option expiries — institutions expect a move by then 📣 Final Thought: The calm is deceptive. The breakout has already happened — just not where most are looking. VIX is coiled and ready. QQQ is stretched and stalling. The conditions for a volatility spike and tech pullback are in place. ✍️ Chart + flow analysis by @brownian (Far from being a financial advisor!) 📅 April 28, 2025 #VIX #QQQ #OptionsFlow #Volatility #BearishDivergence #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView
NASDAQ:QQQ
by brownian
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Anticipation Builds for Key Economic Data: Investors are on edge as they await a series of critical economic reports this week, including GDP growth figures and the April jobs report. Concerns are mounting that recent tariff policies may have begun to weigh on economic performance, with forecasts suggesting a significant slowdown in growth. ​ 💼 Earnings Season in Full Swing: Major corporations are set to report earnings today, including AstraZeneca, Honeywell, Regeneron, PayPal, PACCAR, Kraft Heinz, Ares Capital, SoFi, Zebra Technologies, Incyte, Repligen, and Commvault. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 📉 Market Volatility Persists Amid Trade Tensions: The stock market continues to experience volatility as investors grapple with the implications of ongoing trade disputes and tariff implementations. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could further dampen economic growth and corporate profitability. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 29: 📦 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET): Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March. These figures provide early insights into trade balances and inventory levels, which are critical for assessing economic momentum. ​ 📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. A decline in confidence could signal reduced consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth. ​ 💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. This data helps assess the health of the job market and potential wage pressures. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Gambling Is Not Trading : A Quick Reminder to THINKI've been getting quite a few messages from followers and many are positive. I seems my videos are helping many of you learn better skills and helping you find profits from these bigger price swings. But it also seems some of you are really gambling for the bigger gains with 0DTE options and taking excessive risks (IMO). I want to urge all of you to THINK and to try to learn to adopt a more fluid style of trading. The markets will quickly humble many of you gamblers. They have a way of taking everything you have when you let your guard down. Start Small. Build Your Skills. Learn How To Check Yourself When You Get Into That Gambling Mode. Remember, The Market Can Take EVERYTHING (And MORE). The trick to trading is to learn to GROW your account without gambling. It is like being a Sniper. You have to learn when to take your shot and you also have to learn when to be patient and wait. One of the best pieces of advice I've heard came from a friend (who trades options). He stated. Start Small Book Winners Quickly Book Anything over 20-25% -- Then Plan For The next Attack. Think about it. He's been trading for more than 20 years and has learned many of the pitfalls over that time. And, he is the one guy that I've seen generate 100-200%+ a week (consistently) over the past 2+ years. If you want to survive as a trader, you have to start thinking like a trader (not a GAMBLER). I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
10
QQQ Long-term Key LevelsIdentified Key levels for Long-term Holdings Disclaimer: The information provided on this TradingView account is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The content shared here reflects personal opinions and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided. Use the information at your own risk.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ManiMarkets
SQQQ (3X Inverse Nasdaq) VS NUGT (2X Gold Bull)Interesting. SQQQ lags behind NUGT slightly as the two charts are compared. Most interesting is the most recent movement. In most points on the chart the two variables are within 20% of each other in regards to their movement from zero change. However, in the last time period of the chart (final candle), the difference is 80%. Therefore, NUGT has to come down, or SQQQ will be going up. Another option is a combination of the two. If both made a 40% change, that puts SQQQ at $54 and Gold down 40%. If SQQQ rises 80%, that puts it around $58 within the next week. The more likely scenario based on past movement is a slightly opposing trend direction to reduce the distance between both variables back to the 20% level, shedding 60% of difference. SQQQ is a 3X and can move more, therefore I assess a 3/5 weight to the 60% difference and apply that to SQQQ's target price; current price of $32 x 3/5 x 60%=$32 + $11 = $43 on the low end. High end expectation would be the 80% difference, or $32 x 3/5 x 80% = $32 + $15=$47 Price expectation of SQQQ within 1 week; $42 - $47 based on this analysis.
NASDAQ:SQQQ
by Tradadada
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Playing Into The Major BottomThis update highlights what I believe will be the last level of defense for price (support) on the SPY and why it is so important to HEDGE the markets right now. The upward price move has reached the ULTIMATE HIGH (I believe) and is now moving into a Bullish EPP pattern (shifting into the downward pullback, then it will move into the flagging phase). This flagging phase will be the deciding move (IMO) related to IF the markets attempt to break upward or downward near the current Fib 50% level. This is why it is so important to HEDGE all open positions right now. This battle zone in the markets (near the Fib 50% level) is not a guaranteed move higher or lower. Basically, we are watching the battle take place in live trading. What we can do is try to rely on the EPP patterns and other formations to help guide us to the highest probable outcome, but we have to stay liquid and fluid as the markets trend. Right now, I would suggest the breakdown (Major Low) outcome is about 70-80% likely. Thus, the breakaway (upside) outcome may be 20-30% likely based on my analysis. But that could change if the SPY moves above $555. Thank you again for all the great comments. I'm trying to help as many traders as I can. But this move to the 50% level is very "indecisive". So, I'm having to rely on Fibonacci Price Theory and other techniques (money management/HEDGING) as a way to protect my capital while I trade. This is a great example of how you can learn techniques (beyond technical analysis) related to what to do when you really don't know what the markets may do in the near future. The answer is HEDGE ACTIVE POSITIONS - or pull trades off (even if they are at a loss) and then HEDGE whatever you want to keep active. No one is going to laugh when you tell them, "I protected my capital by hedging last week" when they are looking at severe losses and you are NOT looking as severe losses. It is SMART TRADING. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 4-hour chartTrend: Bearish since late April (drop from $560.00 to $546.58). Red candles dominate. Indicators: Trend Strength: 13.87% (strong). Volatility: Low. Squeeze: Yes (imminent breakout). Volume Sentiment: Bearish (selling pressure). Volume: Rises on declines (red bars), confirms bearish trend. Support/Resistance: Broke support at $550.00, next support near $540.00. Patterns: Recent consolidation with small candles, squeeze suggests strong move soon, likely downward. Conclusion: Bearish trend confirmed, selling pressure and squeeze indicate potential further drop to $540.00. SmartTrend Indicator @tradingbauhaus
AMEX:SPYShort
by tradingbauhaus
Opportunity Beneath the Fear: SPY's Reversal SetupIn the Shadow of Headlines: SPY’s Drop Could Be 2025’s Big Opportunity As markets react sharply to renewed tariff fears and Trump-related headlines, SPY continues its descent. Panic is setting in—but behind the noise, a strategic opportunity may be quietly forming. While many rush to exit, others are beginning to position for the bounce. A well-structured entry strategy could be key to turning uncertainty into gains. Entry Zone (Staggered): 🔹 543: First watch level—look for signs of slowing momentum. 🔹 515: Deeper entry point as the selloff extends. 🔹 <500 (TBD): Stay flexible—if panic accelerates, this could mark a generational setup. Profit Targets: ✅ 570: Initial rebound target. ✅ 590: Mid-range level if recovery builds. ✅ 610+: Full recovery potential—rewarding those with patience and vision. Remember: Headlines fade, but price action and preparation stay. This selloff may continue—but it might also be laying the foundation for 2025’s most powerful move. The key? Enter with discipline, protect your capital, and let the market come to you. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by Robert_V12
"This is fine" on Nasdaq?The general sentiment coming into this week is that the bear trend is over and "things are fine." Maybe. This morning there was a 30m opening spike on NASDAQ:QQQ I cannot ignore. It is happening right at the big Daily 50% Retracement of the leg down: The level is even more prominent on Nasdaq futures and one can add the Volume Profile Point of Control to said level. CME_MINI:NQ1! Playing this with June Puts on QQQ but going to use today's high as a tight stop. We'll see what "Sell in May" brings...
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by norok
1
$HACK and $SMH : The road to outperformanceHere in this space, we regularly check on the 2 subsectors i.e. Semis and Cybersecurity within the broader Tech sector. NASDAQ:SMH and AMEX:HACK have always outperformed the broader Tech sector ETF $XLK. During the last couple of quarters, we have seen the Cybersecurity sector has shown relative outperformance in comparison to the Semiconductor subsector within the technology index. When the NASDAQ:SMH lost more than 37% of its value during the recent downturn, while AMEX:HACK only lost 25% of its value. IN this blog space we have time and again focused on the topic of intrasector rotation. On 15th April I told you guys that the ratio chart of NASDAQ:SMH / AMEX:HACK looks overdone, and we might be set up for a reversal. With both the sectors off of their local lows we can see that there is potential upside in both the sectors. But the question comes which one will outperform the other and if both of then outperform the broader index $XLK. As I opined on 15th of April NASDAQ:SMH looks to have a higher BETA from its lows in comparison to $HACK. In the last downturns we have seen from its lows of 2022 NASDAQ:SMH 3Xed its price and AMEX:HACK 2X in the same time period. So, if you are looking for relative outperformance in the near to medium term then we should rather LONG NASDAQ:SMH over $HACK. And both NASDAQ:SMH and AMEX:HACK will outperform the AMEX:XLK in the near to long term. Verdict : Long NASDAQ:SMH and $HACK. Overweight $SMH. Sell $XLK.
AMEX:HACKLong
by RabishankarBiswal