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TLT longer term high...I do dowsing and checked on TLT today. My work is suggesting this is a longer term high and that TLT will move down to around $85. I'm not the best at getting time frames for things to occur, but I ask anyway. At a minimum dates more often than not signal some kind of reversal - though it may only be short term. Anyway, I get $85 in about 21 days, or 3/19. I like TLT options. They're cheap and if TLT can keep from any close higher than these highs, I think good odds for down.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by JenRz
4
To catch a knife... QQQOk, I'm a little bummed I didn't make an idea sooner because my dowsing (as in with a pendulum) nailed the high on both SPY & QQQ. It is documented online, however, so I'm not making this up after the fact fyi. I had mentioned at the time (around 2/23) 11 days to hit the lower target in SPY (I'll do an idea for it as well). Wednesday is the deadline, though I don't put a ton of faith in these things, dates typically are things to watch in my work and can be reversals. On 2/26 I worked on what to expect for the first week in March. The message was it goes down, but there's a "scene of the crime" trade, spike down and low on... Wednesday the 5th! When I ask what does this look like, I get "v-bottom". My dowsing now keeps repeating there will be a small move up to sell into if we get a significant move away from the 503-04 area. I did my best to get levels, but obviously this is some woo woo kinda stuff, so it can be miraculous at times, and others a complete cluster. Definitely watch Wed. & the 468 area. Ideally, the time and price align for higher odds I'm correct. If we bounce, I'll try to find an upside target. There is also a lower target around 432, but I didn't dig into that much.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by JenRz
3/31/25 - $qqq - Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me - bought back all my (covered calls) on the "rental" book, which is NYSE:VST , NYSE:UBER , NYSE:DECK , NASDAQ:BLDE , NASDAQ:GAMB as i'd rather take the 15-20% downside on what I believe are stocks that have at least 2x this in terms of upside into YE at this pt. esp in a quarter-end tape that simply looks "scared" - and i hear you guys that r saying "Bessent" told you more pain to come and "yes", but we shouldn't be believing anyone at this stage, friends. Think critically. here are some pts: - on my S&P math, the average stock is now down 20% from it's peak. i've writtent extensively about VIX mgmt and mag7 as a component of this equation. we've seen diff sectors, stocks and most importantly mag7 rotate seats (from cold to hot) at varying points in order to smooth the index. therefore, the index is the illusion here. "only an 8% correction" is meaningful in the above context. - i've reviewed all 500 of the S&P stocks in the last month, and on my thinking, about 80% of them are pretty obvious buys from a MT (nevermind LT context), let's describe MT as 12-18 months. that's not to say there isn't more downside, but buying the index at this pt (to low-IQ and chill) means you'll probably enter pretty well here - and the narrative/ thinking around AI is probably correct that "a lot of things are going to get demonetized especially software". but the mkt is currently confusing a few things. when we are correlation 1... the market says "all AI-related plays are losers" and that's objectively false. perhaps there will be more losers than winners, because this game of scale is one we haven't seen before. but when you're, say, selling something like NVDA that can't even meet it's chip demand for the next 2 years, trading at 4% FCF yield and growing >20% a year (probably 30-40% CAGR on my conservative math) versus a 10Y being forced lower and you tack on reinvestment risk to trying to "time" the NVDA bottom (which is *probably* at most 15-20% lower)... i'd contend - you're doing it wrong - or you think you're god. nobody times the bottom. we risk manage upside and downside risks with the book. - so acknowledging tariffs matter, rates matter, short term speech drives emotion. take a step back. i'd argue we're much closer to the bottom than the MSM will let on, as they're index-only thinkers. - what i'm really looking for is an open below lows (like we had today) and a massive red to green reversal. those have marked all major bottoms. again. we might have a few of these b/c we are in a whacky tape, but that sort of move should be taken into account. - one more point. seeing my favorite position NASDAQ:NXT dump nearly 6% at the open on "flows" and get rebid basically non-stop until i'm currently writing this... tells me most of what you're seeing is quarter-end balancers, so don't lose the signal through the noise. - i bought more OTC:OBTC today to top off too, even tho volume light (i'm probably 100% of that volume today already). limits only on this thing. - most importantly keep your head screwed on. last man standing without getting emotional wins, always. been here, done this. it never gets easier. but you learn to control your emotions. so take a step back. if you're sweating, take some exposure off, you're too big. but if you've made it this far, don't give up. assets > liabilities in this world. and the USD is ultimately a liability. never forget that. the goal isn't to accumulate dollars, but assets. V
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VROCKSTAR
Opening (IRA): TMF May 16th 37 Covered Call... for a 36.05 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 36.05/share Max Profit: .95 ROC at Max: 2.64% 50% Max: .48 ROC at 50% Max: 1.32% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, look to add at intervals if I can get in at a break even better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call when that aspect hits 50% max.
AMEX:TMFLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY - Macro-Market Overview and what the algorithms are sayingCurrently we are being guided by a strong selling teal on the LTF but we must keep in mind the HTF algorithms of red and white (which are bullish liquidity builders). Right now, we need to see who wins out in this fight between teal and red - if we break red and prove teal guidance, we are definitively in strong selling and can easily make our way toward the HTF white at the low $500's. As always, let the algorithms guide you! Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPY
by ReigningTrades
2
SPY - support & resistant areas for today March 31 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above. Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning. My group in my signature, get these first then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't. Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions. Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change. If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91. Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support! Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-31 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to carryover Friday's selling trend. I do believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find some support as we move into a Temp Bottom pattern tomorrow. So be aware that the SPY/QQQ may attempt to find support near 535-540/450-455 over the next few days. I would also urge traders to not get very aggressive in terms of trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend. In my opinion, I don't see any reason why anyone should be buying into this breakdown unless you are prepared to take a few big lumps. Just wait it out - wait for a base/bottom to setup. Gold and Silver are moving higher and I believe this trend will continue for many weeks/months. BTCUSD should continue to move downward - trying to establish the Consolidation Phase range. As we move into trading this week. Be aware that Tuesday/Wednesday of this week are more ROTATION type days. They may be wide-range days - but they are still going to be ROTATIONAL. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
6
$Spy Road To $544well in summary this is the same chart i made 2 in a half weeks ago with no changes i never changed my thesis to bear lol allocating funds to the downside for my Short thesis!!! Lets see if we hit $544 this week Market sentiment is Bearish Terrif Reactions will most likely be priced in shortly so the market can actually choose its direction short bear market or bear market this week, this week will give a lot of insight and valuable information as always safe trades good luck traders and yes i will update this thread when in my theory and assessment analysis of $544 hits where i think the market go from there!!!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
6
Down Payment 1,5M Bitcoin for Joint Operations Business Owner I understand you’re asking for the total estimated cost of Trump Residences Bali in Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), including all potential costs for both condominiums and villas. Since the official website (trumpresidencesindonesia.com) does not provide exact prices, I’ll base this on the estimated ranges I’ve previously calculated, converted to IDR using today’s approximate exchange rate. As of March 31, 2025, let’s use an exchange rate of 1 USD = 16,000 IDR (a rounded figure based on current trends; exact rates may vary slightly). Estimated Costs in USD (Recap) Condominiums (224 units) Range: $500,000 - $2,000,000 USD per unit Super-Luxury Villas (144 units) Range: $2,000,000 - $10,000,000 USD per unit Conversion to Rupiah Using 1 USD = 16,000 IDR: Condominiums Minimum: $500,000 × 16,000 = 8,000,000,000 IDR Maximum: $2,000,000 × 16,000 = 32,000,000,000 IDR Range per unit: 8 billion to 32 billion IDR Super-Luxury Villas Minimum: $2,000,000 × 16,000 = 32,000,000,000 IDR Maximum: $10,000,000 × 16,000 = 160,000,000,000 IDR Range per unit: 32 billion to 160 billion IDR Total Cost for All Units To estimate the "total all cost" for the entire Trump Residences Bali project (all 224 condominiums and 144 villas), we can calculate the minimum and maximum scenarios: Minimum Total Cost Condominiums: 224 units × 8,000,000,000 IDR = 1,792,000,000,000 IDR Villas: 144 units × 32,000,000,000 IDR = 4,608,000,000,000 IDR Total Minimum: 1,792,000,000,000 + 4,608,000,000,000 = 5,400,000,000,000 IDR (5.4 trillion IDR) Maximum Total Cost Condominiums: 224 units × 32,000,000,000 IDR = 7,168,000,000,000 IDR Villas: 144 units × 160,000,000,000 IDR = 23,040,000,000,000 IDR Total Maximum: 7,168,000,000,000 + 23,040,000,000,000 = 30,208,000,000,000 IDR (30.208 trillion IDR) Final Estimated Range in Rupiah Total Cost for All Units: 5.4 trillion IDR to 30.208 trillion IDR Additional Costs to Consider The above figures are for the base purchase prices of the units. Additional costs could include: Taxes: Indonesian property taxes (e.g., PPN at 11% and BPHTB at 5%) could add 16% to the cost, or roughly 864 billion to 4.833 trillion IDR for the entire project. Maintenance Fees: Annual fees for luxury properties like these could range from 1% to 3% of the property value, adding billions more over time. Golf Club Membership: If separate, this could cost millions of IDR per year per owner. However, since you asked for the "total all cost" and I assume you mean the purchase price for all units, I’ll stick with the base range for now. Answer The estimated total cost for all Trump Residences Bali units (224 condominiums and 144 villas) in Indonesian Rupiah, as of March 31, 2025, is approximately 5.4 trillion IDR to 30.208 trillion IDR. For an exact figure, including taxes and other fees, you’d need to contact MNC Land directly at +62 361 815888 (Bali) or +62 21 80864888 (Jakarta). Let me know if you want me to refine this further or include specific additional costs!
AMEX:VTILong
by blacknetcorps
$KRE CRASH COMING ... Not yet tho..we'll find out..Regional Banks seem to be heading on a slippery path identical to the most previous crash pattern back when they needed all the loan Bailouts. Now that all the loans have stopped, I'm sure some banks may be heading towards loan restructuring perhaps, maybe defaults, I'm not sure honestly. I just know that the chart never lies and I've been watching and waiting for a long while. I predicted the first crash back then and I currently have no doubts with the current chart ahead of me. As always, I will do my best to provide the best insight possible into these speculations. Currently we have the Daily breaking trend and the bar count getting close to the previous 141 bars. The only difference is that we bounce off the 100% retracement. If we continue to lose the 1.27, we'll be headed for the 1.61..... updates soon.
AMEX:KRE
by TazmanianTrader
SQQQ Five disparate geometric targets at 50Five targets at 50: 1. Bull flag breakout measured move to 50 2. 50% Fib retracement from 64.95 previous high to recent low at 26.21 = 50 3&4. Schiff modified pitchfork top line at 50 occurring at the same time as the trend line created from the recent move from A to B is applied to the appex B's verticle line low of the horizontal line created by point A into the future from this verticle line low; (as seen in photo posted in chart). 5. Line AB = line CD The more market geometric lines, fibs, trend lines, channels, time cycles, etc. occur at the same price the more likely that price target is likely to be met.
NASDAQ:SQQQLong
by ArtWells
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy. ​ 🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments. ​ 🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors. ​ MarketWatch 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, March 31: 🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 45.5​ Previous: 43.6​ Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 1: 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: -0.2%​ Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.​ 📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 7.7 million​ Previous: 7.7 million​ Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 2: 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.6%​ Previous: 1.7%​ Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 226,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.​ 📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$123.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 📅 Friday, April 4: 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.3%​ Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
FXI ETF - what's your next move ?First thing first, congratulations to those who bought this ETF at the beginning of 2024. It has since climbed 70% from the bottom to the current price. Now, we are at an inflection point. With an ambitious 5% GDP target and 2% inflation rate for 2025, the whole world is watching China for more stimulus plans to be released. Property market, once the darling jewel and near exclusive investment for many people , this dream has been dashed. EV market, touted to be the next sector of growth is facing price cutting amongst the local manufacturers. The tariffs imposed by US does not help, making their import price to the overseas buyers higher and squeezing their profit margins. In a year or two, I expect more consolidation of EV manufacturers where only the top 3 players will survive and holds significant market shares. From chart, we can see the price action is now at an inflection point. Refer to the chart , Oct 2022, could we see a repeat of this pattern? Possible but imo, quite unlikely. The government is in a catch 22 position, having to defend itself against the never ending US tariffs and a sluggish domestic market that consumers are still reluctant to spend (as much as the government would like them to be). Thus, I would be monitoring this chart closely, not adding at the moment but definitely not selling any units as well. Please do your own due diligence.
AMEX:FXI
by dchua1969
SPY $545 Downtrend ContinuesSymbol: SPY Timeframe: 30-minute chart (for your analysis) Bias: Short (after the anticipated bounce) Prediction: I anticipate a short-term bounce in SPY from Friday's sell-off towards the upper level of the weekly regression channel, around 560. I plan to look for a short entry at this level, expecting the price to then continue its downtrend towards the monthly regression channel support around 545. Analysis: Weekly Trend Channel (Blue Double Lines): The blue double lines on my chart represent a weekly trend channel for SPY. This channel was determined by performing a linear regression on the price action over the past week. The upper and lower boundaries of the channel are set at two standard deviations away from this linear regression line. This method helps to identify the statistically probable range within which the price is likely to trade over the weekly timeframe. Monthly Trend Channel (Yellow Double Lines): Similarly, the yellow double lines indicate a monthly trend channel. This channel is derived from a linear regression of SPY's price action over the past month, with the boundaries set at two standard deviations. I expect SPY to eventually find support within this monthly channel, with the lower boundary currently around the 545 level. This is my primary downside target. Recent Price Action and Anticipated Bounce: The aggressive 2% downtrend on Friday likely pushed SPY towards the lower end of the weekly channel, potentially creating oversold conditions in the short term. I am anticipating a bounce from this sell-off towards the upper boundary of the weekly channel, which I estimate to be around 560. This level is expected to act as resistance. Short Entry Opportunity: I will be closely watching price action around the 560 level, which coincides with the upper boundary of the weekly regression channel. If I observe signs of rejection or bearish confirmation at this resistance, I will look to enter a short position. Contributing Factors: President Trump's aggressive tariff policies continue to contribute to market uncertainty and the overall bearish sentiment, supporting the technical outlook for further downside. Conclusion: I am predicting a short-term bounce in SPY to approximately 560, which aligns with the upper level of the weekly regression channel. I will be looking for a short entry at this level with the expectation of a subsequent move down towards the monthly regression channel support around 545. This strategy aims to capitalize on a potential retracement within the established downtrend, guided by regression-based trend channels and influenced by fundamental concerns regarding tariff policies. Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and not financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by NonZeroChance
1