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The Anomaly Price Event May Hit Before December 31Just before the US Presidential Elections, I published a detailed research report suggesting the markets may move into a low-liquidity event that could be very dangerous for traders. My Adaptive Dynamic Learning (AI) predictive modeling system highlighted a range of price volatility just after the election showing a very real downward price event. If this event takes place, we may see the SPY/QQQ fall more than 5.5% while other sectors may fall more than 10.5%. What is interesting is the post-election rally pushed some SPDR sectors above the upper ADL predicted price range. This means price is now very overbought in terms of expected levels. Any reversion could prompt a very solid downward price move and catch many traders by surprise. I'm watching my Crash Index and the XLF & XLRE sectors for any signs of a breakdown. I suggest all of you move to protect capital as we move into the end of 2024 and prepare for what may become a very violent and volatile Anomaly Price Event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLRELong
by BradMatheny
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 235 Covered Call... for a 230.52 debit. Comments: Mostly in this to attempt to grab the annual divvy ... . Last year, it was 1.04/share, but it has been widely variant from year to year (e.g., 2.40 in 2022; 1.57 in 2021; 1.50 in 2020). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 230.52/Share Max Profit: 4.48 ROC at Max: 1.94% 50% Max: 2.24 ROC at 50% Max: .97% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but may take profit early if the dividend turns out to be non-chump change.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Calling the Macro Blow-off Top: 2.5x returns in only 4 years?Today I see the QQQ struggling to break another ATh on it's winning streak. Like many investors, I have no reason industrially to believe that the entire information technology sector is worth 2.5x what it was worth in 2020 spring. It was overvalued then, and now, well, goldilocks is about to meet the bears and say - well, I want it that way (pointing to the cold bowl of oatmeal). Listen. When a blow-off-top manifests, it's easy to buy in. Just like the head and shoulders doesn't seem like a head when you are standing on the head. But srsly - we are standing on the head, and boyo jack is going to cut htis beanstock now, and either the giant falling down is going to crush us, or we'll make off with the golden goos. My current allocations: 58% Treasuries earning north of 5% in the "BIL" etf (a much better hedge than bonds, now that correlation has resumed between bonds and stocks), and 42% Value Equities, with no holding having a P/E above 30, and with all holdings having positive Earnings, Positive Growth, and ROE above 20%. That is what fundamental investing is, folks. I own companies that earn money and project to earn money. I don't own hope. Anyone owning hope is in delusion. Own fundamentals. And join me on the side with all your potfolio in AMEX:BIL , and laugh at the next 10 years of consolidation. I estimate nearly 0% overall growth in the tech sector over the next 5 years, and AI will create as many problems as it solves - a net loss, in my opinion.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by MikaelZg
1
QQQ & the market are heading higher! BULL RUN CONTINUATION! NASDAQ:QQQ and the overall markets are heading higher based on our High Five Setup Trading Strategy and what the charts are telling us! - Ascending triangle breakout_retest_next is higher. This was a tricky one as we broke out and over shot the rest area but we are now back above the breakout area and set for ATH push this upcoming thanksgiving week IMO. - Dropped down to our support zone and caught a bid as we anticipated due to AVP shelf and the 9ema. - Williams R% needed that pullback last week, and now we have a retest of support and a bounce higher in our consolidation box. Giving us a strong signal we will build on the week we just had and head towards ATH's once more. Measure move for the Ascending Triangle is: $560 Measure Timeframe is: March2025 For everyone that is calling a TOP across social medias. I say NO SIR! The charts DON'T LIE! NFA
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
Nasdaq100 ETF - $QQQ - LET ME TALK TO YA!Nasdaq100 ETF - NASDAQ:QQQ - LET ME TALK TO YA! 🗣️ The charts know better than any FUD FURU just using whatever data to get their point across (metrics, valuation data, economic data, and valuation formulas). Unless you can get everyone on this planet to align to include the charts you or me don't know what this market will do at the end of the day/week/month/year! Now that we got that out of the way as a follow up to all the fear spreading top callers, lets talk about the charts! Just like with NASDAQ:AMZN we need to give room for retests, we had an ascending triangle, our H5 Indicator stayed green and so we gave the candlestick and ascending triangle pattern retest some wiggle room! Thus allowing for the bounce off the H5/ 9Ema and breaking back out over top of the pattern which is HIGHLY BULLISH as we have a successful retest now. I expect to claw back to ATH's now very soon! Williams R% is also respecting the consolidation box and uptrend at the same time as seen on the chart. No bullet points just a lot of words and thoughts! Here's a chart too: 🎯$560 🎯$580 NFA
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
Opening (IRA): GDX Dec 20th 36 Covered Call... for a 35.29 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.29/share Max Profit: .71 ROC at Max: 2.01% 50% Max: .36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.00% That 1.00% ROC at 50% max is kind of "marginal," but just trying to keep theta on and burning with little stuff that I can add to should I have the opportunity to get in in higher IV/weakness.
AMEX:GDXLong
by NaughtyPines
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat-Down pattern may continue the rolling top pattern in my Crash Index - suggesting the markets are consolidating after the post-Election rally phase. I continue to warn traders this low liquidity market phase will likely prompt some very big volatility in price action between the election and, roughly, January 5-10. Stay cautious. I believe the markets are starting to revert a bit downward and I believe this is a very healthy move for the markets - especially after the post-election rally phase. We need the markets to resolve back into a moderation phase before attempting to make another bigger move to the upside. So, watching the markets potential roll over and fall about 3~5% would not surprise me. Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly strong rally phase. This could be coupled with a moderate US Dollar decline. Bitcoin rallied above $103k over the past 24 hour - WOW. Buckle up - the Bitcoin crew will be out in force with their memes and other comments. Remember, play these market moves safely. If you can afford to take the lumps, don't trade too much capital with each trade. Going to be a very interesting holiday as I believe liquidity will continue to erode and present even more volatility. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
$QQQ Today's Trading range for 12.5.24In QQQ, we are overbought, overextended, and the 35 EMA is underneath the implied move for the day which often signals down or flat day The implied move for today is between 519 and 527 and that is from options The 30 day average volatility between 515 and 532 And the implied move on Friday’s contract 518 to 529. Here, we are also just under all-time highs we made that in the last candle yesterday that is the only level to the upside and then 527 is the top of the implied move. We have the 35 EMA underneath the implied move within that up gap from yesterday that does signal down or a flat day normally 519 is the bottom of the implied move. Bottom of that gap is, 517 and 518 bottom of the implied move on Friday’s contract
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
$IWM Today's Trading Range for 12.5.24IWM We've been consolidating ever since making new all-time highs for the first time in three years last week. This week so far, we've been shopping around the 35 EMA but holding above that up gap from where we made all-time highs last week. So, to the upside, the first level to look for is going to be around 243; that's where we've been seeing resistance after making all-time highs. Then, 244 is the top of the implied move, and we also have those previous all-time highs in the trading range at 244.98. Underneath us, we have that 35 EMA, and then under that, we have an up gap from last week. Then, 238 is the bottom of the implied move, and 237 on Friday's contract with the 30-minute 200 moving average underneath that, with completely flat momentum.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY Today's Trading Range 11.5.24So today’s implied move for SPY is between 605 and 611, and the 30 day average volatility is between 599 and 616. The implied move on Friday’s contract is 603 to 612. The bullish channel is still holding above the 35 EMA and it has been holding since we bounced on the election gap on the 15th. We are quite overbought here. We are just at old Time highs so that’s the only level upside. It’s directly above us and then 35 EMA below and then the one hour 35 EMA we also have yesterday gap that could definitely be a target and 30 minute two under average is underneath all of it , and we’re definitely due for a trip to meet up with that level. Good luck today guys. I will try to make a video tomorrow night, but I may not be able to so if I don’t chart will be here in the morning.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
SPY Approaching Key Resistance: Will Bulls Keep Control?Technical Analysis & Price Action * Trend Overview: SPY is in a steady uptrend, hitting $607.91 intraday, with a narrowing rising wedge pattern forming. The price is testing resistance, and volume remains consistent, indicating active participation. * Support Levels: * $604.63: Immediate support for pullbacks within the wedge. * $602.32: Key pivot point, aligning with recent consolidation zones. * $597.25: A strong support area, breaching this level could shift sentiment. * Resistance Levels: * $607.91: Immediate resistance; a breakout could drive momentum toward $610+. * $610.50–$612: Major resistance zone for profit-taking or potential rejection. Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks * Liquidity Zone: $604–$606, high activity zone acting as both support and resistance. * Order Block: $607–$609, significant recent buying activity suggests this area needs to be monitored for breakout confirmation. Scalping Playbook 1. Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $608 on volume spike and breakout confirmation. * Target: $610 (partial) and $612. * Stop Loss: Below $606. 2. Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $604.50 with high selling pressure. * Target: $602.50 and $600. * Stop Loss: Above $606. Swing Trade Strategy 1. Bullish Swing: * Entry: Close above $608 with strong continuation signals. * Target: $612 (short-term) and $615 (medium-term). * Stop Loss: $605. 2. Bearish Swing: * Entry: Close below $602 with significant volume. * Target: $597 and $595. * Stop Loss: $605. Thoughts & Projections * SPY is showing signs of slowing momentum as MACD histograms weaken, signaling potential consolidation or a pullback. * A breakout above $608 could fuel bullish sentiment, but watch for rejection near $610 due to rising wedge dynamics. * If SPY breaks below $604, bearish sentiment may intensify, targeting $602 and lower. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform your due diligence and practice proper risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ on the Edge: Breakout or Reversal? Key Levels to WatchTechnical Analysis & Price Action * Trend Overview: QQQ continues its bullish momentum, reaching $523.52 before consolidating near $522. This upward channel is intact, with buyers maintaining control, but caution is warranted as it approaches resistance. * Support Levels: * $517.50: Immediate support aligning with recent pullbacks. * $513.33: Strong support where buyers previously stepped in. * $510.00: Key psychological support, failure here may lead to further downside. * Resistance Levels: * $523.52: Immediate resistance, a breakout above this level could push toward $530. * $527–$530: Major resistance zone to watch for profit-taking or rejection. Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks * Liquidity Zone: $516–$517, high trading volume with significant activity, acting as a pivot zone. * Order Block: $520–$522; a breakout here could signal bullish continuation. Scalping Playbook 1. Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $523.52 with increasing volume. * Target: $527 (partial) and $530. * Stop Loss: Below $520. 2. Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $517.50 with a strong breakdown. * Target: $513.33 (partial) and $510. * Stop Loss: Above $520. Swing Trade Strategy 1. Bullish Swing: * Entry: Close above $523.52 with volume and bullish momentum. * Target: $530 (short-term) and $535 (medium-term). * Stop Loss: $520. 2. Bearish Swing: * Entry: Close below $513.33 with strong selling pressure. * Target: $510 and possibly $505. * Stop Loss: $515. Thoughts & Projections * QQQ’s strong uptrend shows no immediate signs of reversal, but volume at resistance needs to be monitored closely. * The MACD histogram indicates slowing momentum, suggesting a potential pullback before the next leg higher. * Focus on intraday volume and watch for rejection near $523 or a breakout confirmation. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk effectively.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
$SPY December 5, 2024AMEX:SPY December 5, 2024 15 Minutes 60 Minutes Gaps not getting filled. Very strong uptrend. Being a moving average and Fib trader i do not have a setup for fresh entry or short. At the moment if any pull back 60o is the number to watch. It is 9 moving averages in day, and 38.2% retracement for the move 587.43 to 607.91. AMEX:SPY not even breaking 21 averages in 60 minutes since the move started from 587.43. HH HL pattern. No way to short. At the moment even if I short at 601 levels the target is only 598. So not much R:R. Need to continue the longs for 608-612 as initial target provided 601 is holding. I have no position.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
12