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$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again. Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again. Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of the interest rate gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$QQQ - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA. ++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++ And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday. On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing down almost 3% And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA. Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish) 30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA. ++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++ And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday. On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25% And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA. Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish) 30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move. Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months. I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results. This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer). Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos. I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend. Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now. But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success. And that is what this is all about. Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets. I was lucky. I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years. Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading). One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE. Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want. If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity. OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week. The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending. Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
12
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously. ​ 🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot. 🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 21: No major economic data releases scheduled.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 22: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.20 million Previous: 4.38 million Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 23: 📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0 Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8 Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.​ 📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 675,000 Previous: 662,000 Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.​ 📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET): Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. 📅 Thursday, April 24: 📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -0.5% Previous: 1.3% Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.​ 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 230,000 Previous: 223,000 Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📅 Friday, April 25: 📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 76.5 Previous: 77.2 Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Junk Bonds on Bounce?The High Yield Corporate Bond ETF AMEX:HYG is a widely watched risk sentiment gauge, as seen within the renowned "Fear and Greed Index," and closely tied to credit conditions and investor appetite for riskier debt. It reflects how much confidence the market has in lower-rated corporate borrowers—making it a strong proxy for broader risk-on/risk-off shifts. Technically, HYG looks like it may have completed a five wave impulsive structure from the 2022 lows, followed by an ABC correction that found support near 75.60. That (C) leg could mark the end of the correction, especially with recent price action holding above Kumo cloud support on lower timeframes, hinting at a potential reversal or at least stabilization. Fundamentally, there’s a lot in flux. Inflation is still sticky, which has kept the Fed cautious on any immediate rate cuts. At the same time, tariff talk targeting Chinese imports rekindled fears of trade friction and margin compression—especially for leveraged companies. Credit stress is also rising, with default rates ticking up in weaker sectors like consumer credit and commercial real estate. The silver lining for bulls: the U.S. dollar has recently pulled back, easing pressure on corporate borrowers and global funding conditions. A weaker dollar can be supportive of high-yield credit as it reduces debt servicing burdens, especially for firms with dollar-denominated liabilities. Junk bonds are approaching a pivotal level. A clean break above the $78 would strengthen the case for a bullish reversal and a new impulsive phase. But if resistance holds and price rolls over, it may warn that markets aren't out of the woods yet. In any case, HYG remains a powerful gauge within the market’s risk engine.
AMEX:HYGLong
by NantzOS
2
Trading Idea: Range Breakout StrategyBias: Neutral-to-Bullish (for breakout) Setup: SPY is consolidating between $520–534. A clean break above this zone could signal continuation toward the pivot level at 562.75. Entry Options: Aggressive Long: Buy near current levels (~526), stop-loss below $520, target $534 short-term and $550–562 swing target. Conservative Long (Breakout): Buy above $534, on confirmed breakout with volume. Stop-loss just below $528. Target: $548–562. Bearish Scenario (if breakdown): If price falls below $520 with strong red volume, potential retest of $511 support and further down toward $500 or $480 (S2). Short entry below $520, stop-loss at $526, target $511 then $500. Volume Insight: Strong green bar at bounce near $480 indicates buyer interest. Current candles show indecision; breakout or breakdown will likely be volume-driven. disclaimer: The trade idea presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by eemani123
6
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 526.40 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 554.18 My Stop Loss - 512.11 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
4
Ratio-to-Butterfly: Flag-Based Premium Harvesting“Most people hunt the kill. But the ones who build the terrain? They eat forever.” Purpose: Capitalize on clean trend support and structure with a low-cost entry that allows you to harvest premium before the breakout, and optionally tighten the structure to a butterfly when the breakout becomes likely. Base Strategy: Short Put Ratio Spread Example: +1 31P / -2 30P (AAAU) Entry credit: ~$1.44 Structure: 27 DTE, high POP (>99%) Reason: Price near support, low probability of hitting short strike Theta-driven profit engine with low directional pressure Conversion Strategy: Butterfly Overlay Trigger: Price begins to drift toward the short strike, or flag tightens near inflection Move: Buy 1 lower put (e.g., 29P) to convert ratio into butterfly Structure: +1 31P / -2 30P / +1 29P Result: Caps downside risk and tightens profit zone Exit: Max profit if price pins near short strike at expiry Psychology of the Setup: "Start with the house's money, then shape the bet." You’re not chasing the move — you’re pre-positioned. Use the casino’s chips (credit from wide ratio) to build structure that pays on drift, stall, or controlled breakout. Ideal Conditions: Price near clean structural support Flag forming above key moving average (e.g., 200D) IV elevated but not extreme No bid or low open interest on short leg = market not pricing breakdown Exit Scenarios: Full hold: Price stays above both strikes → keep full credit Mid-cycle flatten: Price begins drifting → convert to butterfly Spike or fail: Close early for partial gain, roll if needed Repeatability Score: ✅✅✅✅☆ This setup is ideal for weekly/monthly cycles, ETF swings, and earnings coil plays where clean structure exists.
CBOE:AAAUShort
by bcavin
SPY forming an ugly diamond bottom: Big move soonDecided to just ignore all the noise and go back to the basics for this one. We got a classic ugly diamond bottom, a ton of volatility after a large price move followed by reduced volatility, some symmetry but there are bits that pop out of the pattern on both sides. Diamonds don't have to look perfect for them to be legit, this one is certainly no beauty and I was hesitating to call it one, but I think it is close enough. Measured moved for each side is 570 (up to the liberation day announcement) if there is a positive breakout, and 470 down to the next level of support if there is a negative breakout. Volume is declining from when we entered the diamond shape, which typically points to a bullish breakout. If we get positive tariff news this could definitely happen. Ultimately watch for a break of 520 for a bearish move and a break of 536 for a bullish move.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeSpy
1
Double bottom on SPY would be nice.I'm thinking that if SPY does a double bottom around 4800, it could be a good time to buy. I don't think SPY will drop below 4800 because Trump seems to be working on positive news with Ukraine/Russia, the Iran deal, Japan, and so on. If we hit 4800 again, it would probably mean the Fed isn't cutting rates, Powell gets fired, or some big tech companies miss their earnings. But Trump will probably try his hardest to lift the markets from here, and 5000 could be a higher low.
AMEX:SPY
by nicePepper6315
Incoming Death Cross? Is a Death Cross Looming for SPLG? Here's What the Chart (and the Economy) Are Telling Us The technical clouds are gathering over SPLG. A new **Death Cross** — when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average — appears imminent on the daily chart of SPLG, a popular low-cost S&P 500 ETF. This ominous signal historically marks bearish sentiment and trend reversals, especially when coupled with macro headwinds. Let’s unpack what’s on the horizon, and why this technical setup deserves attention. What the Chart Says - The **last Death Cross** on SPLG occurred in early 2022, followed by months of weakness. - A **Golden Cross** in mid-2023 launched a strong rally, fueled by soft-landing optimism and strong tech earnings. - Now, the **moving averages are converging again**, with price slicing through both SMAs. Volume has picked up, and momentum oscillators are struggling to regain bullish footing. The Stochastic is indecisive, and CM_Williams_Vix_Fix shows recent spikes — a sign that fear is creeping back into the market. 🏦 Recent Economic Data: Warning Signs? The macro backdrop is not helping. Here’s why: - **CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected** for March, pushing back the market’s timeline for rate cuts. - **Retail sales surprised to the upside**, suggesting the consumer is still resilient — but that could also mean more inflationary pressure. - The **labor market remains tight**, with unemployment below 4%, limiting the Fed’s flexibility. Bottom line: the Fed is stuck. Markets that had priced in multiple rate cuts are now bracing for **"higher for longer"** — a toxic cocktail for growth-sensitive equities like those in SPLG. Global Trade Tensions Resurface As if inflation and rates weren’t enough, the White House just slapped **new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries**, reigniting trade war fears. This could: - Increase input costs for U.S. manufacturers - Add further upward pressure to inflation - Trigger retaliation from China Historically, rising tariffs have had a chilling effect on global equity markets, particularly large-cap exporters that dominate the S&P 500. So, What’s the Play? With technical signals flashing red and macro conditions deteriorating, it might be time to: 1. **Reduce exposure** to large-cap ETFs like SPLG until the Death Cross plays out 2. **Rotate into defensive sectors** (think utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare) 3. **Consider short-term hedges** if you're fully allocated 4. **Watch key levels** – a break below MXN$1,200 in SPLG could open the door to a deeper correction Final Word This isn’t a panic call — it’s a call for preparation. Death Crosses don’t always lead to crashes, but when they align with fundamental deterioration and rising geopolitical risks, they can signal a trend change worth respecting. Let the chart be your map, but keep one eye on the macro compass. Stay sharp, trade smart.
AMEX:SPLG
by aldofg
Short Volatility during rare spikes using leveraged ETF $UVXYOverview Volatility represents how greatly an asset’s prices swing around the mean price. Historically there are rarely brief volatility flare-ups that present trading opportunities. Trying to anticipate volatile events can be costly, because other market participants generally expect the same well known events, and one never knows how big a volatility spike might arise from a given event. Instead if one merely awaits extreme volatility events, which historically are ephemeral, there's a higher probability trade in shorting it. I've thought about this previously, and took the opportunity with Liberation Day to successfully short volatility. Volatility Instrument Selection Choosing an appropriate instrument can aid in the likelihood of a successful short position. Among the options CBOE:UVXY looks attractive for the trade, because it's a leveraged ETF, is highly liquid, and provides options with granular strike prices and expiration dates. Leveraged ETFs are known to decline over time due to Daily rebalancing and compounding effects Volatility drag Cost of leverage Management fees and expenses Path dependency These characteristics of leveraged ETFs provide a structural tailwind to a short position, because the instrument naturally declines over time. This phenomenon easy enough to see on a CBOE:UVXY weekly chart Moreover selection of a liquid product is prudent. At the time of writing CBOE:UVXY has an average daily volume north of $22 million dollars for the past 30 days. Trade execution Execution of the trade starts with recognition of a highly volatile event, this is both technical and discretionary. From there a trader is advised to use their preferred tactics to select entry, stop-loss and exit points. Personally I like to use chart patterns across different timeframes in tandem with Relative Strength Index, and to a lesser extent volume to identify trading setups. I use longer term charts to identify a trend, and shorter timeframe charts to determine entry and exit points. The timeframe(s) depend on the particular instrument and what the charts look like at the time of the trade. During the Liberation Day Volatility Short trade, I've been using 1W, 1D, 4H and 1H charts. The 1H chart has been suitable for entering an exiting trades. Head & Shoulders patterns have manifested both on price and momentum alongside declining volume. I've posted a couple CBOE:UVXY minds along the way. Additional Thoughts Volatility can also be used generally to anticipate moves in other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, crypto and commodities. Using the levels from that last chart fed into successful NASDAQ:TQQQ & NASDAQ:SQQQ trades in the aftermath of Liberation Day.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by quickshiftinn